> this seems highly unlikely to me.

I disagree for many reasons.

1) He led and won the EU elections by a wide margin.

2) Debates are no longer what tips the scale in the elections. Losing a debate is no longer the disqualifier that it once was. See the EU elections where the debates were terrible and not just because of Bardella.

3) This is a new world and Bardella is very good at campaigning on social media and has a very good reach with young people. Other parties besides LFI struggle to talk to people in general.

4) The RN is pretty much leading in all social categories except for retired people who so far had stuck with Macron. That will change as France is bleeding out and needs cash and the current government is going to get it where it can, including from it's most fervent admirers, retired people.

5) Marine Le Pen being sidelined is actually a blessing in disguise. She has worked hard to change the name of the party, change it's image, change it's people, in order to make it more likeable and more modern and by all account she has succeeded.

But there was one thing that always stuck, her name, which represent the past, when her dad ran the party.

Now that she is out, the RN can embrace being "Le Pen" free and some people who did not want to vote for her on principle because of her family history could very well be inclined to support a young, fresh face with 0 political baggage/scandal.

She is the sacrificial lamb, thrown to the wolves and in public they will lament it everywhere but come election time, her name will not be on any pamphlets and the final transformation phase of the party will be completed.

6) TINA (There is no alternative) The French political landscape is frozen in time with the same people doing the same race every 5 years.

The right wing party is basically an appendage to Macron's party at this point, the Socialists are decimated, the other left wing parties will not unite behind JLM due to his controversial views.

The center is going to be split by a civil war in order to decide who will inherit Macron's party as well as his legacy but whoever wins will also inherit the label "more of the same" which sunk Kamala Harris in the US.

Zemmour is now seen as the troublemaker and stands no chance of winning so his supporters will most likely vote for Bardella in the run off.

Bardella is the new kid on the block who will run for the first time and that will generate a lot of buzz, just like when Eric Zemmour ran in 2022.

If we add the votes from all the "far right" parties: RN + Reconquete + NPA, their total is above 40% in the first round according to the latest polls, which is the highest it has ever been.

> The RN always polls high when they can stay silent and represent an easy way to express opposition.

I don't agree with the staying silent part. I think people know by now what the party represents. Less legal and illegal immigration, tougher on crime, better salaries, and so on as it has always been. That is why people vote for them. The rest is small potatoes in comparison.

> Bardella will most likely be skewered alive by any competent opponent

That remains to be seen. Macron won in 2017 just the same. He was not a politician, not a very good debater either and his political stance was murky at best. See the "Yes I am a socialist" bit on TV followed by another bit a while later "No, I am not a socialist"

Novelty can be a good thing and I think the French people are ready for a change. But I guess we will know in two years from now.

Please note that I am expressing my personal views on this issue based on what I have seen and heard from relatives living in France. I personally don't support any of the mainstream candidates so I don't really care who wins or loses.