skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
I learned more from the reaction to Nate and 538’s forecasts than 538 itself. It helped me appreciate how journalists misunderstand and distort basic probability. If a model predicts A, B, and C as having 34%, 33%, and 33% likelihood respectively, the typical report is “538 predicts ‘A’ will win!” and they got it totally wrong when B or C is the victor. Interpretations of 538 were further fuelled by whatever political bias a pundit was coming from.

In a world where Kevin Rose can reboot Digg, Nate has every chance of acquiring and reviving 538. Good luck to Nate.
Episode 7 is incredible!
A lot of people in the comments here who I would perhaps advise to click into the text of the bill. I respect the EFF's privacy concerns, but I don't agree that victims of revenge porn should have to wait for a service provider to carefully verify their claims before getting a takedown processed, although I do hope the House offers amendments to clarify that encrypted messaging apps don't need to institute surveillance to comply.
Does Peter Thiel still get a piece of all the YC startups?
According to Apple, everything in their system still works the same and they still have control of their own hardware, even if it’s in a Chinese data center. Systems like iMessage are still fully end-to-end encrypted even in China. Maybe they’re lying but it would be a huge opportunity for devastating leaks if that’s true.
> While another persons "web browsing" is running multiple browser extensions like grammerly, adblocker, etc. Along with a bunch of gmail tabs, plus a bunch of heavy "web apps"(think: miro, monday.com, google workspace/office365, photoshop online) and then throw 10s-100s of tabs of "research" on top of that.

That's computing, not web browsing. And on not so great platform than that.
Our "world leadership" is rapidly becoming a distant memory.
> Sorry but reading Volkswagen and "crappy products" in the same sentence means either you never drove one or you've got very high standards

The rest of the car is fine I suppose but the infotainment unit in my brother's ID.4 is most certainly crappy.

The touch is horrible, the unit is slow AF both in latency and update rate, and the menus kinda suck.

Sure it's a small part of the car, but it's pretty integral to the operation of the car given they removed most knobs and buttons.
> It’s unclear where the money is going and what it will be used for, but one source with direct knowledge of the dinners said “it’s all going to the library,” as in the presidential library that will ostensibly be built once Trump leaves office.

Right.
> If someone gets their hands on one of your Tailscale nodes, they can access every service on your tailnet, which are likely running with reduced security since that's a huge part of the appeal. This is exactly the situation BeyondCorps/Zero Trust was created to avoid.

In addition to the ACLs mentioned by the sibling, a tailnet is not quite a plain-old VPN overlay network, in that each device on a tailnet gets assigned a predictable, durable LAN IP address based on the credentials that device is logged into Tailscale with.

Which means that, for at least the "personal" devices (laptops, phones, tablets), you can configure your servers on a tailnet to do something that's less finicky than full-on credential-based auth, but still more secure in practice than no auth: namely, host-based authentication — which should be a reasonable 1:1 proxy for user authentication (assuming the constraints from the previous paragraph.)

To put that in concrete terms: on a tailnet, a user's SSH credential for a given server can simply be the fact that the user is able to originate the connection from the expected LAN IP address of the user's workstation. Except that instead of that LAN + the user's workstation living in a physical building, they're both virtual, and the user's physical workstation (of the moment) must provide credentials to bind to the tailnet IP that allows it to present itself as the virtual workstation.
My framework experience has been great (3.5 years). Would never go back to dell or Lenovo.
Banked or segmented memory was a common CPU feature of the time. It's look back upon with a disdain that simply didn't exist at the time.
> Potentially unrelated, but isn’t anarchy-communism also an oxymoron?

Communism implies anarchism.

> How could you enforce communism under anarchy?

Communism, as a state, is the hypothetical self-sustaining stateless end-state envisioned by Communism, the ideology. Socialism (an intermediate state in the theory), and State Capitalism (an intermediate state—and one most real regimes claiming Communist ideology get stuck in—in practice) may need enforcement, Communism, almost by definition, does not (whether it os attainable is, of course, a different question.)
Why are phd-level-agents paid twice as much software developers? Why don’t we see similar value in the real world? $2,000 for high income knowledge workers? None of these numbers make sense.

Also I don’t really have any intuitive sense of what a phd-level agent would be, the cynical part of me thinks it is a marketing term because people mentally associate one with smart.
That’s why I specifically emphasized “perception and preferences”. Believe it or not, the science covers both - both what people can perceive, and what people care about and value.
The season 1 finale is one of the best episodes of TV in a while.
Historically no, Ollama and the like have only used the CPU+GPU.

That said, there are efforts being made to use the NPU. See: https://github.com/Anemll/Anemll - you can now run small models directly on your Apple Silicon Mac's NPU.

It doesn't give better performance but it's massively more power efficient than using the GPU.
Or he didn't read the bill. The text is quite specific about what kinds of content it applies to, I don't think there's any way it could be used to silence opposition.
There's not much else (other than Epyc) in the way of affordably priced motherboards that have enough cumulative RAM. You can buy a used Dell dual socket older xeon CPU server with 512GB of RAM for test/development purposes for not very much money.

Under $1500 (before adding video cards or your own SSD), easily, with what I just found in a few minutes of searching. I'm also seeing things with 1024GB of RAM for under $2000.

You also want to have the capability for more than one full speed at minimum PCI-Express x16 3.0 card, which means you need enough PCI-E lanes, which you aren't going to find on a single socket Intel workstation motherboard.

Here's a couple of somewhat randomly chosen examples with 512GB of RAM and affordably priced. they'll be power hungry, and noisy. Same general idea from other x86-64 hardware such as from hp, supermicro, etc. These are fairly common in quantity so I'm using them as a baseline for specification vs price. Configurations will be something with 16 x 32GB DDR4 DIMMs.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/186991103256?_skw=dell+poweredge+t6...

https://www.ebay.com/itm/235978320621?_skw=dell+poweredge+r7...

https://www.ebay.com/itm/115819389940?_skw=dell+poweredge+r7...
Your experience matches mine here in Australia, and it's fine justification for why we don't take public transport, but not why there shouldn't be more and better public transport. I would much much prefer to be taking a train from nearby into the CBD as it is faster point to point, more predictable and less stressful. The trouble is I live too far away from a station so every train journy starts with 30 minutes of car travel in the wrong direction.

The consensus seems to be on my side in spite of lower share of total commutes, because housing near stations is significantly more expensive. From that I infer two things, public transport is desired, and there's not enough of it to support demand.
As someone who was super interested in the 538-style of election coverage in 2008, I've kind of fallen "out of love" so to speak with election models and forecasting in general. I'm not really convinced about what it adds to the conversation around elections. We can all look at various polls and get an assessment of who is generally ahead. Weighted polling aggregators and forecasting models just collect all these polls and spit out some data. It's easy to hand wave and think some new information is being revealed, but ultimately it is just a "garbage in garbage out" situation - you are entering polls as input, some hand waving is going on, and you get some forecast as a result.

I think part of my cynicism comes in the wake of the 2016 election, in which the forecast rightfully counted some scenarios in which either candidate could win, upon which conclusion of the model was basically "the result fits in with the forecast, because either candidate could have won according to the model" - in which case I personally concluded, if no matter what the result, we can always just say "the candidate who won could always have won given the forecast" - what are we really adding to the conversation here? We can simply look at polls and understand who is generally ahead, and not be any better or worse off.
Asus makes a gaming tablet with a 13 inch screen with a 128GB of unified RAM on the new AMD Strix Point.

I agree that MacBook is not an option. I have a work MacBook and it has better silicon, ok, but I hate being on a Mac. Just not for me.

I'd wait until more manufacturers announce what they will do with that AMD SOC.
> Also, I might as well come out and say this: one reason I don’t want to use Github is because it’s the most popular place to host your code.

It's the goth subculture of software development! Because it's popular, it must be eschewed.

Geez.
[dupe] Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43261218
> questions arose on how that should be taxed and whether the cost of the tickets was deductible

What were the questions? What would the case be that cost of tickets shouldn't be deductible?
Good luck touching him. He won't be prosecuted.
There some recent Ukrainian successes:

https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1897450904938320095

and

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/03/01/ukrainian-t...

Not to mention russian rafnieres getting hit almost every night:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/03/04/ranging-acr...
My first thought was a new product from the LeafLetJS people, cool.
Maybe to you, but not to any of the Trump voters I know. And not to a lot of other people, either. This is in the State Department, not EPA, and embassies spending resources on pollution monitoring sounds like the very epitome of government waste that DOGE is trying to eliminate.

It is not a "pro-science" talking point it is actually a real pro-science without the quotation marks talking point.

Science has been completely under attack for every second this administration has been in power, in every single way, from funding to scientific indpendence to censoring of words that are politically incorrect to the Trump administration.

Suggesting that this is an optional high profile shut down of science rather than something completely in line with what's happening every single day is a very odd take on the matter.

And as to the proof that this is not something that people really care about in a high profile way, the science rallies get about 1/10th the support of other sorts of rallies in those trying to resist Trump's changes.
That does get intense pretty quickly, if you're generating a source and commit/diff pages for every file * every commit. Probably just single commits would make the most sense and then a source browser for each branch.

That said, JavaScript libgit2 is a thing [1], so doing it "properly" in a client app is totally possible.

[1]: https://github.com/libgit2/libgit2/issues/4376 | https://github.com/petersalomonsen/wasm-git
I’ve used Khan Academy with the kid and always been impressed, but Math Academy sounds very promising indeed. Anyone have an informed view on the relative merits? I don’t mind paying the monthly fee if there’s genuine value.
Really? I had no ideal System76 was a rebrand..
I already miss the approval charts over time. Where the best place to see those, now?
You think that's bad? :) I went to the University of Minnesota Talented Youth Mathematics Program and they assigned a fourth grader (me) about 50 hours of math homework a week.

It genuinely wasn't until I was in my mid twenties that I wanted to look at anything mathematical again :)
No one seems to be as dogmatic or tut-tutting as much in this thread as you, so you should be aware that you seem to be unintentionally projecting.
That would imply that software engineers make good software, which is the opposite of my intent.
The MacBook Air with M4 chip 16gb ram and an amazing display and camera is just 999$. During back to school that will happen soon it’s 899$ with free AirPods. That’s really great value given how good the hardware is.
"The truth does not resist questioning."
Harvard admissions, VC investing: identifying "special" vs. "good"
Clinton won the popular vote by about 3 million votes in 2016.
Math Academy and a SQLite course pulled me out of despair as well. I grew up thinking I was relatively smart and being able to learn on my own, but only randomly and sporadically. After not learning much the past few years and feeling very stupid, I decided to look for some paid courses to take on Hacker News.

The SQLite course was in a very different video format and took roughly 20 hours, but I learned a lot and immediately used that knowledge in two software projects that would've seemed insurmountable to me.

As for MA, it's taken a lot longer and has been difficult. I'm now at 6000XP and halfway through Fundamentals II. I have a lot of thoughts, but I (kind of) plan to (probably not) write a review after having completed Foundations I-III, since I haven't talked to anyone else who's done so so far.
Yeah it's still not ideal.

As someone who lives between 3 languages what I'd really like is a browser setting for language per-site. E.g. I want my Swedish bank's site in Swedish, not the English translation, I want Google Maps in Japanese so I can see the Kanji for the station names, but I want the AWS console in English. Each of these sites have their own toggles but they are very inconsistent and keep resetting, the browser would have done a much better job.

I wonder if this can be done with a browser extension.
$36K/yr is a livable wage in China.
I see from your comment history you're British, so I don't get why you describe this as surprising. There's the Commons, Lords, and the King. Who or what else would be creating or dissolving the court? Why would it be able to overturn primary legislation that's received royal assent? That would just be swapping things around so you'd be saying 'fun fact about parliament, supreme court can...' anyway, surely?
If you’re running just one GPU your context is limited to 1024 tokens, as far as I could tell. I couldn’t see what the context size is for more cards though.
The M3 vs M4 thing makes sense, but pro vs ultra vs max is ???
Thankfully, there's not much forcing you to use much of it; the "template repo" I use outright disables forum/wiki/chat/bugtracker access to non-admin users (i.e. anyone who hasn't cracked my password), since most of the time when I throw code out into the world I don't really care all that much about supporting it - and in the cases where I do care, I can always re-enable exactly the things I want.
It is a very different presence though. There aren’t fighter jets and bombers stationed there any more. It’s more of a monitoring thing.
The posture implementation is quite easy to work with. There’s a growing list of integrations, and you can also roll your own with the posture API. I’ve used Kolide so far and will be integrating with Kandji on another tailnet. They also have Intune, JAMF, Crowdstrike, and SentinelOne.

The same posture API can be used to restrict access to devices in your inventory or to set up just-in-time access to a sensitive asset. For the latter, you can use a Slack app provided by Tailscale or integrate with an identity governance workflow to set a posture attribute with a limited TTL. Your tailscale policy just needs to condition the relevant access on the attribute.
Air-Traffic Staffing Rules Tightened at Reagan Airport After Fatal Crash
Gift link: https://www.wsj.com/us-news/dc-plane-crash-dca-air-traffic-r...
I think I drove that same car out of Frankfurt! But we had five people and luggage, so I guess it worked out.
The elites of the country that are now in power don't care about world leadership, much less the soft power that we had that made us all very rich, that made a plumber in the US make $7k a month while in much of Europe that plumber would only make $3k a month.

They care about enriching themselves as much as possible. It's all short-term gain, without any view for the future. Get those tax cuts, reallocate money away from the government and away from those who work for a living and make a true oligarch class.

If events continue down this route, the US is looking at a lost decade or even permanent loss of leadership, letting China catch up and then step up, or maybe India.
The asus zenbook pro is great.
The 16inch version is not really bulky. It is 2.4kg, 2TB, 3.2k resolution, great design and build quality. $2200

The 14.5 inch version is 1.6kg, 2TB, 2.9k resolution, also great design and build quality. $1700

https://www.asus.com/laptops/for-creators/zenbook/zenbook-pr...

https://www.asus.com/laptops/for-creators/zenbook/zenbook-pr...
When you combine this with the upcoming death of Section 230, what you have is Elon, Trump and their network of liars being able to spread bullshit nonstop but then they will be able to target anyone who tries to hold them accountable.
That's a popular opinion, but what does it have to do with this piece of news? They weren't closed it because they got the polls wrong?
Also "think of the children" and "privacy".
I don't think it really addresses the issue because it still requires an account at one of the predetermined identity providers. With email I just need a domain and I can self host the rest if I really cared to.

It would be so much nicer if there was a federated way where I the user could specify any OAuth identity provider (even if it was e.g. a self hosted one) rather than the predetermined list dictated by the relying party.

Funnily enough someone recently asked me if I could comment on a Product Hunt post and I was unable to do so since they only allow sign in with Google, Twitter, Facebook, Apple or Linked in; I have none of these accounts and would rather not create any of them. Oh well.
I have the GWM Ora.Very similar feelings about it. Not perfect, but very good. Mainstream/legacy automakers have already lost; They will seek to erect market barriers.
I agree. I don't particularly remember any disdain at the time. It was just a thing that you worked with. Sure, it made things more complicated. Sure, it was easier with a flat address space. But there were way bigger problems in day-to-day development than segmented memory.
> The share of Russian gas in EU imports dropped from 45% in 2021 to 18% by June 2024, meaning US exports of gas to the EU has significantly increased.

Exactly. Isn't it wild? They paid €205 billion to the Russians since the start of the war. Not only that, as you found out, they were paying a lot more in the past! It's like had never noticed he captured Crimea from their neighbor. Not only that US had asked the strengthen their military, spend more on defense, and stop buying Putin's gas and they turned around and did exactly the opposite.
I wasn't providing a counterexample.
Who knows if this leak is credible, but typical SaaS pricing dictates you should be charging 10 - 25% of the value you bring. That implies this agent is expected to deliver 1 - 2M+ of value, essentially replacing a medium size team of knowledge workers. Even as an AI bull, this level of capability seems far fetched.
Dupe: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43029687
And much reduced dividend payments. It is the difference between prioritizing market share over profits. Where an American company sees profits as an end goal, a Chinese manufacturer sees profits as a tool to enable expansion and development. One is working for shareholders, the other to advance national goals.
> while MAD is quite different at "if you try to kill us we'll make sure to kill you too”

While the common shorthand for MAD is “if you try to kill us, we’ll kill you,” a more accurate summary is this: even if we wanted to, we couldn’t prevent a cascade of retaliatory strikes that would send you back to the dark ages. In short, any hint of aggression against us is tantamount to signing your own death warrant.

This idea of unstoppable, self-reinforcing retaliation is crucial. An adversary might mistakenly believe that it could somehow disrupt or neutralize our ability to respond decisively. However, the very structure of MAD ensures that even the slightest provocation triggers a response so overwhelming that it eliminates any potential advantage for the aggressor.

Quite a fascinating, though grim, subject.
That is exactly what came to mind when I read this.

I mean... who is mining for this stuff? The sheer SCOPE of the pettiness is mind-boggling, set against a backdrop of... no ideas whatsoever to move the country forward. No initiatives. No ambitious plan for Americans to get excited about.

Trump has never even submitted a PROPOSAL for anything. For example, his awesome new healthcare plan, promised over and over and finally promised "in two weeks," on July 19, 2020.
ASUS Proart P16 with the 4070/64gb configuration. Has usb a and c, hdmi, sd card reader, and can be powered over usb c though if you are using the 4070 you’ll want the ac adapter. The build quality is only matched by the screen which is awesome. Battery life is also excellent. If I was to have a laptop for 6 years this is the one I’d invest in.
That is true and also deliberate US policy to ensure there would never be a strong Russia again. Russia has always loomed large over Europe since probably the Huns. There have been times when the Russian state was Europhilic (e.g., Peter the Great or when the language of the Russian court was French). And times when the Slavic and Eastern impulses have reigned. The claims that Putin is trying to rebuild the Soviet Empire is probably mostly propaganda. But something can be literally false, but spiritually true. Given its geographic perch across Eurasia, Russia's spiritual destiny may demand Empire or Death. It's an open question whether the Russian Federation can accept a subordinate role on the world stage. They will likely continue to aspire to being a sovereign pole in proposed multipolar world order.
I downvote all Reddit-style memes, jokes, reference humor, catchphrases, and so on. It’s low-effort content that doesn’t fit the vibe of HN and actively makes the site worse for its intended purpose.
Tailscale is not just a wrapper around Wireguard, as some people imply in the comments. The codebase is far bigger, and it does far more. They are different products.

What Tailscale does is difficult to do with Wireguard: Easy VPN, SSO with MFA, key distribution, static private IP for each node, peer to peer direct connectivity, split tunneling, fine grained access control rules down to per port and application, Wireguard over TCP, NAT transversal for devices behind firewall, central management, sharing nodes with others, DNS, file sending, routing rules (with exit nodes, subnet routers, “via”), key rotation, …

Wireguard connects peer A to peer B, and its simplicity stops there.

I found Tailscale to be a very good tool, that I extensively use.

My only concern is: what happens if their infrastructure is compromised at some point, like Okta’s? Assuming I have tail lock enabled.
And we like them to store a lot of petrol so we can drive far on holiday
I didn’t say it was Apple fighting. I’m referring to the broader fight. Getting Apple to deploy encryption by default is one outcome I’d like us to fight for. But if we give up and start poo-pooing Apple’s encryption because it’s not pure enough, that fight is over.