skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
I find the modeling super useful, many conventional media outlets still don’t properly communicate probabilities to their audience. For instance, I vividly remember the following exchange between Nate and some news anchor in during one of the 2016 conventions:

Anchor: So Nate, you say Trump has a 25% chance of winning, can you tell us exactly what that means?

Nate: Sure. So imagine I flipped two quarters, and they both came up heads. In that scenario, Trump wins.

Anchor: (shocked) Wait but that’s… that’s a thing that actually happens! You’re saying Trump has an actual chance of winning?

Nate: Well I’d rather be Hillary than Trump right now, but yes, people shouldn’t be that surprised if Trump wins, his chances aren’t insignificant.

I remember people in October still saying that Nate had to be wrong, that there was just no way Trump could win. There was even a growing market for what I would now call “cope forecasts” that “unskewed” the results to show that, really, Hillary had a 99% chance of winning, just like you knew she did (all of these people looked extremely foolish after the election was over).

I also feel like good models provide valuable pushback against media narratives that try to characterize the “closeness” of a race. In 2016, people wanted to hear that Trump had no chance of winning, but Nate/538 correctly pushed back that the race was actually pretty close and both candidates had a good chance. And he did the opposite in 2012: Pundits wanted to cast Obama and Romney as being neck-and-neck (which makes for a more exciting story) and Nate had the stats to push back that actually the race was not very close at all. If Romney had won in 2012, Nate would’ve had to eat crow, but Romney didn’t win.

Nate and 538 also do senate races, which are super valuable if you’re figuring out which candidates to donate money to. Often there are Democratic candidates in totally doomed races against Republicans I really don’t like, and the data helps me look at those situations and go “yeah I hate Lindsey Graham, but his challenger has no chance, I’m going to donate to the milquetoast Nevada senator whose race is on a knife’s edge instead”.

I could probably just look up polls, but the way Nate/538 process the polls into results with error bars and probabilities makes it a lot easier to reason about.
@anonym29: a heads up.

It appears you are trying to explain why CCPA's does not meet the laypersons definition of "selling data". After reading your explanation I'm none the wiser. Given no one has replied, I suspect that's true for most people. They've just scratched their head and moved on.

I was about to do that too, when it dawned you probably have no idea people don't understand what you are saying. Maybe an example would help. Its needs top be something a layman would not consider to be "selling data" but the CCPA defines that way.
And I've never seen a modern toaster die, even the cheapest of the cheap ones, but I have seen people replace them for aesthetic or feature related reasons. I can almost guarantee there are more 70s toasters in the landfill than there are 2000s ones. You're falling hard for survivorship bias.
Good sensors are not cheap, they need recalibration, the app needs to be continually maintained. Some entity probably has a stupendous contract to maintain it.
One of the issues was with a Thinkpad and another was with an Ideapad.
It better be! AMD @ $2k: https://digitalspaceport.com/how-to-run-deepseek-r1-671b-ful...
Musk was the one to claim to be an absolutist.
>It's very convenient to sign other people up to pay for your preferred government services and I'm sure your peers are willing to eagerly pat you on the back for your generosity, but ultimately even taxing the wealthy at 100% won't cover the deficit no matter how good it would make you feel.

Other people sign me up to pay for their preferred government services all the time. It's called living in a civilization. And don't get me started on the retirees getting a slice of my labor because they have a piece of paper saying they own part of my company.

I'm under no illusion that taxing at 100% would cover the deficit. It'd probably mean a better financial picture for the government, though, and if this whole national debt thing is the existential threat that fiscal conservatives say it is, well, is any improvement not good?
I've gotten back to the hotel, and I take back this comment. The hotel wifi does not seem to actually route the ipv6 address it assigns.

I bought this laptop at an electronics recycler. It came with a verizon SIM card, with service that's still working. So this ipv6 address is from Verizon, not the hotel.
I can’t pronounce two of the four words in that domain, that’s impressive.
I’m with you on that. I think all of this should be mandated in a way that allows parents the choice and the tech companies the choice to operate for children or not. Now if you are advocating that the govt overreached when it banned cigarette companies from airing commercials during children’s cartoons… thats a little to far on the libertarian train for me. I don’t think regulation around the type of algorithms they can use around children is not worth investigating. Advertising choices and algorithmic implementation incentives do not seemed align with childhood development and I worry the feed them to the wolves approach won’t work out well for either side.
I used to host an Arma 3 server using Kubernetes, I had a scalable set of headless clients to distribute the AI load. My friends called said it was the smoothest server they ever played on despite using hundreds of AI groups. With Tailscale I wouldn't have needed host networking enabled on the Pods, come to think of it.
Not having a judicial body that is fully independent of the legislative branch (parliament) and not being able to strike down laws is interesting/surprising to me shrug. I've always liked the idea of strong judicial oversight. But I guess without a strong constitution, where parliaments laws can't be ruled unconstitutional, it doesn't matter much... the public will be fully at the whims of parliament.
Absolutely. You can run a go process that becomes a Tailscale client without any other dependencies. This is what I use it for issuing JWT for service authentication: https://github.com/AltaCoda/tailbone
Just buy a 256 GB model and upgrade the drive yourself to 2TB for $150ish.

And yes, the screen is slightly lower DPI (201 VS 226) but you do get a better aspect ratio in return.
Cloudflare Access is a reverse proxy: you encrypt to Cloudflare, Cloudflare decrypts and scans the traffic, Cloudflare re encrypts to the origin server.

So, traffic is not end to end encrypted (Cloudflare man in the middles the traffic). That’s the reason we didn’t use it. Otherwise it’s a good service.
Is this amount of RAM really that expensive? 6x 64GiB DDR4 DIMMs are < $1,000.
I largely agree with your points. Election modelers and forecasters really don't add much to the conversation after 2016, despite their attempts and even purported success at correcting their models and mistakes. The only election forecasting model that I take seriously these days is my own vibes based forecasting.

I have enjoyed the meta-drama around forecasting and modeling that pops up every election season though. It's hard to beat "[Nate Silver] doesn't have the faintest idea how to turn the keys," or "I ran 80,000 simulations."

¹ https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/he-doesnt-have-the-faintest-i...

² https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/i-ran-80000-simulations
You might like (or hate) to check out Eric Sadin's "Injunctive turn of Technology"
>> In general, the principles of democracy are that the people of the nation can steer the nation

Yes.

>> towards a better place.

Weeelll, where the population steer it to isn't really determined by any principles. Rather it goes wherever the population steers it to.

Sometimes the population gets it wrong, and with open eyes pick an option that takes them to a worse place.

Yes, information helps (hence campaigning) but that information has always been gate-kept. That was seen as a flaw.

Turns out though information is like water; you need enough, but too much and you drown.

Anti-vaxers don't exist because of a lack of information. People who voted for tarrifs don't have restricted information. People have shown over and over a willingness to vote against their own best interest, as long as you provide someone else to blame.
This is an absolute loss. 538 is amazing because it forced people to confront the cold hard data about polls surrounding politics and if you didn't like it, figure out what they did wrong or deal with it.

I'll never forget being called racist because I showed someone a 538 poll that said the presidential election was at best a toss-up to someone who was sure Kamala Harris would sweep the swing states.
I curious. Nearly everything has been done through decretes until now. Why choose the difficult path by actually letting this go through the Senate and House?
Well, the British system is particularly unique because there is no formal Constitution, and thus we have no Judicial Review for Constitutionality. There's a pretty interesting talk about this here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIlkY90Cck8
Presumably all ticket sales (including their numbers) are synchronously reported to the lottery office by the sales terminals. That would render backdating attacks detectable.
Absolutely tragic. Trump is literally dragging the country back into the proverbial cave or dark ages. Just take NOAA for example: gutting this agency has widespread 2nd and 3rd order consequences the Trump administration is either clueless or willfully ignorant about. This administration is screwing over generations to come.
Discussions (148 points, 15 hours ago, 206 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43265521

(71 points, 13 hours ago, 28 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43266170
I kinda feel like you're not being charitable with the OP

My read is that the OP is saying that the air quality monitors in China were a massive soft-power win for the US, and it also shamed the Chinese government. So if you start from the assumption that this current administration sees the Chinese government as a rival who should be opposed, then this kind of effort that bypasses the Chinese government and provides a resource to the Chinese people should be supported.

If the administration claims to see China as a rival, but then cuts such an obviously beneficial project, reasonably, you gotta wonder if the administration is telling the truth about it's relationship with the Chinese government.
Asus ROG Z13, X13 (not your size, but also X16). You should consider getting used, tremendous value. There are some of the usual gaming laptop quirks (normal usbc chargers cant keep it charged on full load, QA issues like squeaky touchpad) but the versatility is unmatched.

Thinkpads are reliable and great QA/support, but the HW is underwhelming, bad thermals, dim screens, and just too expensive.
What sort of startup could ever replace the services that are being performed? The point of a startup is increase value massively by building revenue. The services that are being cut are meant to be public infrastructure upon which everybody else builds their startup, that enables all the innovation that makes the US a leader.
But that's because elections these days are incredibly close. It's like being upset that the best statistical answer to "who will win a coin toss" is "well it's 50/50".
Actually, 384GiB is already <$400 [1].

[1] https://www.amazon.com/NEMIX-RAM-DDR4-2666MHz-PC4-21300-Redu...
Better to run the Q8 model on an epyc pair with 768GB, you'll get the same performance
Aider: Using Uv as an Installer
Well if they made it that far, they also read that this article is for "people who are already familiar with Differential Equations from Mathematics." I think if you're already familiar, a single wrong sign is not something thats going to be particularly hindering. It's more just something to jump on if you are, for some reason, itching to criticize it.
The screen was never an issue in the 2012-2014 Model S, it was just the adhesive. The flash memory issue did affect my old car, very annoying.

What you said makes sense in terms of relative effect. I think most--if not all--of the companies will come to the admin looking for an adjustment, and they'll get one.
I’m a big fan of everything Uxn related. The architecture is fun to work with, and unlike most low-level architectures it is very event driven making interactive programs quite easy to make.

I’m exploring building a game around it (not in it) with Kikai, an unholy marriage between zachtronics games and starcraft, where units (and buildings) are uxn machines with devices to interact with the outside world. This allows you to fully customize the whole army and strategy to be whatever you like.

Buildings for example, take a bit of the role of linkers (or even compilers), they are just another Uxn machine with a Factory device. The most basic form of a building and the one that you will have by default is just a memcpy of bytes from a source ROM to bytes in the RAM of the newly created unit. But by investing a bit of time you could for example have pre-made behaviours that you can link on runtime based on that particular match needs. Units also have a radio and can send messages between them. WIth some more code you could have a handler that rewrites parts of the code broadcasted from a building allowing you to deliver OTA updates!

My objective for the game is that it works out of the box as a normal RTS but that once you get the gist of it you can start automating here and there so there is no high cost of entry but there is infinite extendibility.

There is another very interesting project in the same direction that Devine (the creator of Uxn, Varavara, Orca and Nebu, as well as many others) shared with me recently when I explained my project to him: Doldrusidus which is incredibly fascinating. It goes in the same vein, small ships in a multiplayer universe each of them running Uxn machines inside.

Kikai and devlogs: https://marcecoll.itch.io/kikai
Doldrusidus: https://desertslug.itch.io/doldrusidus
538 in its final form was not about predicting election outcomes, it was about the business and science of polling, and contrasting factual data with the way people perceived related issues. It was an interesting outlet that helped illuminate the data side of political science, and at its best also provided some insight into the disconnect between how the general public thinks about a topic versus what is actually happening.

Disney killing 538 is broadly a loss for political journalism in the US, imo, because most other American media is more interested in sensationalism and hyping imaginary culture war issues, i.e. exacerbating exactly the disconnect with reality that 538 was trying to combat with its more evidence-based reporting. From my perspective the only place still doing this kind of work outside of niche, single-topic outlets like SCOTUSblog is ProPublica, and even they don't tend to be as politics-centric as 538 was. So I definitely will miss the site, and the pod. I don't have the stomach for most other American media.
I mentioned this another comment, but the LLM requirement is more of a nice to have. What's more important is the overall experience: linux support, good trackpad, nice keyboard, battery life, screen, customer support experience, etc.
No. No, it isn't. Lynx is a browser I use in the terminal. This is something else.
Fuck the UK government
Dentists will probably lobby against this
I like the idea. I used to be a military air traffic controller (for about 3 years) and have seen a few cases of issues between ground traffic, either vehicles, or helicopters or other airplanes and airplanes landing or taking off. We had a somewhat imperfect system of tracking whether runways were free or in use.

Relying solely on speech recognition seems a little tricky though. Either way you'll probably want to involve someone from the ATC side sooner rather than later.
How much has our knowledge of AI training techniques helped to discover how to train people to think better?
we've got a tailscale integration that takes care of the security concerns. set policy to decide what can talk out to the tailscale node and what the tailscale gateway is granted access to. this is especially important when you can't run a tailscale client on the devices you want to connect

https://github.com/spr-networks/spr-tailscale
Those high heeled slides are kinda cool.
> four key cognitive behaviors -- verification, backtracking, subgoal setting, and backward chaining -- that both expert human problem solvers and successful language models employ.

As we make AI better, perhaps we'll inadvertently find ways to make HI (human intelligence) better too.

I had a personal experience with this when I was studying for an exam recently. As I read over practice questions, I spoke aloud, replicating the reasoning methods/personality of Deepseek R1. By spending a lot of time reading long verbose R1 outputs, I've essentially fine-tuned my brain for reasoning tasks. I believe this method contributed to my excellent score on that exam.
What is the memory bandwidth to the main CPU cores (not the "neural engine")? Is it really 120GB/s like they say in the spec sheet[0]? That's 20GB/s faster than the top dual-channel DDR5 desktops, which makes me think there might be some fine print I'm missing.

[0] https://www.apple.com/au/macbook-air/specs/
I'm not british. I would be fine under their government. Not too thrilled but fine
Respectfully, did you watch the entire 50-minute exchange?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pxbGjvcdyY
I have only bought into my readings in history. The events I credit are:

- The 1970s opening of China by Nixon and the documented policy goals contra the USSR.

- The waning years of the Cold War when the Soviet Union was weakened and falling apart leading to 1989 and the aftermath in Eastern Europe and Russia.

- The documented US policy of economic warfare against the remnant of the Soviet Union as written about by George Kennan and others that destroyed the Russian economy and handed key industries individual gangsters (the "oligarchs").

- The documented US policy of color revolutions in Ukraine to undermine democratically elected but "pro-Russian" leadership.

- The placing of bioweapons labs and other military installations in Ukraine, intentionally provoking Putin and creating internal pressure on Putin vis a vis Russia's own military hawks.

- Using Ukraine as a poison pawn in a documented policy to provoke Russia into an "unwinnable" war intended to bankrupt the country, isolate it via sanctions, deplete Russia's military, and ultimately, depose achieve regime change to a more pliable Western allied Russian leadership (essentially to do to Russia what was done in Ukraine). The ultimate policy goal being to "balkanize" (weaken) the Russian Federation to achieve Western dominance over Russian policy and resources.

I'm not terribly concerned with whether this was sound policy or not. Or what corrupt "elites" do with their ill-gotten gains. I'm just interested in the facts of history. This doesn't say that Putin is blameless or even a "good leader". Takes that say something is 100% clearly one side's fault are just stupid. Germans may be the biggest dupes of all in this whole mess. I get that Russia has traditional regional enemies who want Europe and the US to make this about good vs evil, and Russia being a local thug antagonizing smaller countries "for no reasons whatsoever", but that's a story for children.
Silver didn't say that the democratic candidate would lose, so that clearly isn't what GP is referring to.
Nearly all of them, yes.
I set up a Wireguard tunnel into my home network years ago, before Tailscale was really a thing, and I always wonder if I should switch, but I can never make the effort worth it in my head. If I was starting all over, I'd go Tailscale for sure, but a single tunnel really gets me 99% of the way there.
That didn't work out for X in Brazil. The government of a sovereign nation can just require you to have a presence to do business there.
> Using Tailscale introduces a dependency on Tailscale’s security. Using WireGuard directly does not. It is important to note that a device’s private key never leaves the device and thus Tailscale cannot decrypt network traffic. Our client code is open source, so you can confirm that yourself.

https://tailscale.com/compare/wireguard

My understanding is that (in theory) the only way this is possible is if the attacker introduces a new node and then connected to other nodes that are in the tailnet. What you're suggesting is that a single node that is connected to the other nodes gets compromised, but this isn't possible without already being able to compromise that specific node. Alternatively, if someone hacks Tailscale itself, the only way they could get access to any nodes would be to add their own node, but if you have alerting set up you would know and you could shut down the attacker.
You probably need to brush up on a little concept called "Economies of Scale."
Communists (believers in communism) set up socialist states. A communist state would be decentralized and voluntary.

The two are often conflated, but this fact is fundamental to communist philosophy, economics, and literature.

The USSR was the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, not "Communist Republics"

As a term, communist state is used by Western historians, political scientists, and media to refer to these countries. However, these states do not describe themselves as communist nor do they claim to have achieved communism — they refer to themselves as socialist states that are in the process of constructing socialism and progressing toward a communist society.[1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_state
> I never really followed the "Nate Silver" controversy after 2016, but it basically seems to boil down to a bunch of liberals being mad because they felt lied to for no apparent reason.

FWIW I don't think he's controversial because of the 2016 polling miss, most people who follow 538 understand what 538 does and that it wasn't his "fault." He's controversial because he posts scalding hot takes on Twitter and then goes to the mat to defend them. He also has a penchant for getting into Twitter beefs with other big names in his industry.
So... https://sos.maryland.gov/mdkids/Pages/Geography.aspx

> Maryland is about 250 miles long and 100 miles wide.

30 miles is a pretty normal commute for people who work in Chicago but live in the suburbs. Not the whole width Maryland but we do have many smaller states too.
I sincerely wish you luck.

I was blessed, having the resources to retire early. Most are not so fortunate.
>I think a lot of people here could have netted more money per hour by studying up to pass a FAANG interview instead of buying lottery tickets one at a time.

Bro, saying stuff like this is why everyone hates us.
The problem isn't computers being considered an "other", but rather that other people are using computers to unilaterally scale up the implementation of their own negligence/biases/"policy" while also insulating themselves from corrective feedback or other repercussions. This makes poor results feel willful rather than being considered honest mistakes.
What is the memory bandwidth to the CPU cores? Is it competitive with 8-channel DDR5 servers for non-GPU compute?
From the reports I've read it would seem that the sensors remain and will likely be maintained .. it's the public display of the data via the internet that's been cut.

By all means whittle the fat from a third party contract on data delivery .. the sensor maintainance part is likely tricky but not challenging and has a real cost far less than mean cost of an embassy security staffer, being the kind of thing that takes an hour or so a month at most (once setup and running).

( FWiW I maintained, coded aquisition for, wrote presentation layers, for high end professional multi channel geophysical instrumentation: gravity, magnetics, radiometrics, lidar, radar, barometrics, twin gps + base station, etc )