skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Maybe... the difficulty with how AI is advancing, it might be difficult to distinguish it from an LLM. You might even get to the callcenter problem of "initial support handled by someone following a script" before you can get passed to someone who knows how to solve the problem.

If I want someone to walk me through making muffins from scratch, is a human on the other and of that line (competing with $1/day rates for ChatGPT Pro - its cheaper than that, but that's the comparison) and are they better than what ChatGPT can do?

It would have to be... quite a bit more than what the LLM would be priced at. The minimum it could reasonably be (without any other things) would get close to $4/15m... and that's minimum wage.

I really don't think that humans are competitive on that timescale or rate.

It would probably be better to hire people at some higher rate to write content for your private model. Brandon Sanderson is considered one of the faster writers (in the fantasy genre) and averages at about 2500 words / day ( https://famouswritingroutines.com/collections/daily-word-cou... ) - and while he makes a lot more than most authors, lets go to a more typical $75,000 USD / year. 250 working days per year and we're at $300 / day. And we're to $0.12 per word. ... Which puts a person in the intermediate to experienced price per word range https://uxwritinghub.com/writers-salary/

Not that I'm suggesting that's the way to do it, but something for LLMs to consider - hire experts to write content for their LLM. $125 per 1000 word blog post.

298 words. I'd like my $37.25 please. Not that I'm asking you for that, but rather that's what my words as training material would be worth.
It's not really the beginning (1.0) of anything - more like the end given that OpenAI have said this'll be the last of their non-reasoning models - basically the last scale-up pre-training experiment.

As far as the version number, OpenAI's "Chief Research Officier" Mark Chen said, on Alex Kantrowitz's YouTube channel, that it "felt" like a 4.5 in terms of level of improvement over 4.0.
That's exactly what I mean though, agree on something that actually means something. Not certs that are just a checkbox and you still get grilled bc many people don't believe they much value or others believe are a negative signal.

Develop something that actually has weight to it.
> We have powerful weapons now.

Yes, and from the videos all over the Internet, a lot of what those weapons do is kill people. If just blowing up machines won the war, Ukraine would have declared victory in the first year.

There are lots of potential limiting factors, population's just one where Ukraine started at a big disadvantage and that can't really be made up for by foreign aid, unlike munitions or food or what have you (short of other countries outright sending troops). Weapons can be sent, but if they run short of people to use the weapons, to the point that they can't maneuver, can't credibly threaten counter-offensives, eventually can't cover the entire front... then things start to fall apart.

Like once they survived and repulsed the initial attempt at blitzkrieg, and things settled in to a stable-ish front, population is the particular figure that would tend to give you a knot in your stomach, looking at the on-paper situation from their perspective, and the prospect of a long war.
It does have B2C products, but does it know how to manage them?
Of course, but it is extraordinarily optimistic, naive even, to think that freezing the conflict now without any security guarantees for Ukraine is anything but a gift to Russia, who will turn to preparing the next invasion.

And keep in mind, we're not doing the sacrificing. It is Ukraine who is doing the fighting and should be calling the shots here, with our material support since we don't want to send troops (until now).
My take is that the second point is the models created by this crazy expensive training are just software, and software gets cheaper to operate by virtue of Moore's Law in an exponential fashion.

Third point, I think, is that the intelligent work that the models can do will increase exponentially because they get cheaper and cheaper to operate as the get more and more capable.

So I think GPT4.5 is in the short term more expensive (they have to pay their training bill) but eventually this being the new floor is just ratcheting toward the nerd singularity or whatever.
This reply is archived
Pre Microsoft Skype was malware-grade good. I still remember sysadmins imploding in impotent rage as it near effortlessly evaded their firewalling attempts.
I also enjoyed the comic book version of “ Capital and Ideology” by Picketty, Claire Alet and Benjamin Adam which follows the fortunes of a French family through the generations.
> A mere month ago these same people were Ukraine's best friends and world's dictators' most hawkish enemies

What Republicans a month ago were UAs best friend? I feel like the simping for Russia has been a consistent stance of MAGA since 2016 -- certainly since the 2022 invasion.
Micro keypad to do your regular Git push/pull/add/commit actions
If only there was a universe where I got it lol…
Others have said it here in the comments but I'll emphasize the point:

when you throw a "signup to proceed" page at people, I am guessing almost everyone closes the page - it is such a huge turnoff to be told to sign up.

Signup is something you should ask people to do at the latest possible time, after they are already interested in and using your game/application/system.

When someone goes to your page they have granted you the most precious thing on the web - their time.

You have literally seconds to get them so engaged that they grant you a little more time.

That loop goes on and on.

Drop people straight into the game experience - not into a page talking about the game or the company or something else.

If you have made an experience instantly engaging and then led the player to become more and more engaged then later you will have built enough relationship - and motivation - to ask them to sign up.

In summary - your signup page throws away all the work you have done by placing a brick wall in front of potential users/players who have expressed and interest.

Remove it, drop people straight into the fun.
The physics of gas turbine engines is one reason I am really excited about electric aviation. People don't realize that you are temp limited at altitude. They think the air is cold, but it is about getting mass through that engine so compressing that air to the density needed brings its temp way up. Electric doesn't have that issue so electric engines could go much higher which means those aircraft could become much more efficient. People focus on the problem of putting enough energy into an electric airframe, but they don't realie the potential massive efficiency gains that it can bring because of the physics of flight.
> Perhaps my friends and I are outliers, none of us inherited any wealth or were given trust funds or lump sums when hitting adulthood

> all of us are better off than our parents at the same age and their parents are better off than their parents

These are conflicting statements. Your group are all beneficiaries of generational wealth by this description. Maybe it isn’t as overt as a trust fund, but you definitely inherited wealth and opportunity from your parents.
not related: A map of torii around the world (6 days ago - 49 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43141966
> A person familiar with the matter who spoke to the Guardian on the condition of anonymity said analysts at the agency [CISA] were verbally informed that they were not to follow or report on Russian threats, even though this had previously been a main focus for the agency.
The US clearly donates obsolete weapons to Ukraine, and then ships the snazzy new super deadly stuff to Israel.
That is actually wrong.

In total the US falls behind. Additionally about 70% of the aid by the US flows back to the US weapons manufacturers.

"The Kiel Institut for World Economics (Germany) has calculated that the support by the European Union and its member states is surpassing the support by the US. While it is true that the US delivered more weapons, they are far behind in terms of financial support and humanitarian aid."

While Donald Trump demands 500 billion dollars in minerals from Ukraine for further support, their contribution so far is less than 120 billion dollars.

Source:
- https://www.ifw-kiel.de/de/publikationen/aktuelles/unterstue...
while you see a net win for the economy, I see a smaller GDP and a bad conclusion after the business year when people start repairing their devices instead of throwing them away and buying new.

Idk where I implied zero cost of things anywhere?
I suspect this is more of a case of garbage-in garbage-out. The existing web results have invented answers.

People created websites to "answer" people's search queries about celebrity net worth, if some celebrity is gay, if they are in a relationship, etc. They obviously frequently did not know, and made a guess, or relied on tabloids as a source, who also frequently make things up.
Yep, plus static analysis in CI. We also run ubasan, tsan, and valgrind on our unit tests.
That's how I feel about Reddit. They just keeping adding things nobody wants because otherwise how do they justify their salaries and their stock price?
In a stable society where you dont tax wealth, this is the inevitable outcome.
Cheers. <3
Something needs to kill Microsoft.
I'm a little surprised by this. While I'm better off than my parents I went into a much more highly paying field (software engineer vs teacher/social worker.) If I did a similar job to them I would have no hope of ever affording a similar house to them.

They were part of a generation that benefited from enormous house price appreciation due to a combination of falling interest rates went from almost 15% down to under 5% (this is about 3x on its own) and the fall in house building which drove up prices and rents generally.

This effect is somewhat less pronounced outside of southern England.
Oh get off your high horse.
Freedom isn’t free.
Because after bribing Trump with the ability to brag that he won the USA 500B of minerals, they will be able to march in without any US interference...
How is "development" an adverb or adjective turned into a noun??

It comes from a French word (développement) and that in turns was just a natural derivation of the verb "développer"... no adverbs or adjectives (English or otherwise) seem to come into play here
By like, a couple of percent, yes. So the question is, do the side-effects outweigh the very marginal difference. That's a decision you have to make for yourself.
I would love to know what lobbyist created this bill and who they were lobbying on behalf of.

There's literally no way this was a creation of a senator or representative pulled out of their own thoughts about a hypothetical future. Someone's business model depends on this.
Maybe Google is paying them to self-sabotage?
Azure Trusted Signing is one of the best things Microsoft has done for app developers last year, I'm really happy with it. It's $9.99/month and open both to companies and individuals who can verify their identity (it used to only be companies). You really just call signtool.exe with a custom dll.

I wrote @electron/windows-sign specifically to cover it: https://github.com/electron/windows-sign

Reference implementation: https://github.com/felixrieseberg/windows95/blob/master/forg...
> Sorry to have been sufficiently specific

s/sufficiently/insufficiently/
levelsio, eric smith, david park, jacob of rezi, etc
and Francis J. Underwood!
You took the $165 / 12 and arrived at 13 bucks per month per taxpayer.

But if you had read the rest of the transcript, you’d arrive at this beautiful part:

“The numbers we came up with, the $165 per person and the $11.25 per person, aren't really real because they are based on this idea that everything we sent to Ukraine and everything we sent to Israel came from tax revenue, and that's just not the case.

MCMANUS: The revenue that goes in is not necessarily connected to how the government is actually budgeting. What we're paying in taxes just does not have to match what we spend. So the whole exercise is sort of irrelevant.

GONZALEZ: It's irrelevant because of one big elephant in the room, which is deficit spending. We spend more than we bring in as a country.”

And from who is the US borrowing most of their money from? It currently owes China roughly 850 billion USD, and it has to pay interest on this.

And how does it pay this interest?
Either it borrows more, growing the problem, or it is a portion of your taxes going straight to China <3.
Placebo is an expectancy effect. I don't know all the details of OP's story, but there are all kinds of plausible reasons I can imagine that someone might have different expectations for one drug over another.

It might not even have anything to do with the drug itself: mental health issues tend to wax and wane on their own over time, so if someone happens to feel better right after starting a new medication, it's easy to think "oh hey this one must be working" and then that can trigger the placebo effect and turn into a positive feedback cycle.
Please don't respond to a bad comment by perpetuating a flamewar yourself. That only makes things worse.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
> Did you try marker?

I did not, but I will. Thanks for the pointer!
Then you give them more and more weapons forever until it's like Korea rather than give in.
Yikes—please don't break the site guidelines like this (and again at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43213814). We have to ban accounts that do that.

If you'd please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stick to the rules when posting here, we'd appreciate it.

From a quick (and shallow) skim of the thread, I gather that you're representing a minority viewpoint—inevitably so, because this forum is majority Western and naturally reflects the Western point of view. When commenters find themselves in a minority/contrarian position on the internet, they often resort to name-calling and other barbs. It's understandable as a response to pressure, but it's not ok to do that here. We can't apply the rules differently depending on such factors.

At the same time, it's in HN's interest to have contrarian views represented, as long as people do it while respecting the site guidelines. So when I run across an example like this, I often try to make this argument in the hope of persuading the person in your position! It doesn't usually work, but one can hope.

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...

It's also in your own interests to follow the rules, because when you break them, you discredit whatever truth you may be arguing for. That doesn't help you or anyone else, and majorities are always looking for an easy excuse to dismiss minorities. (I'm not talking about the current topic here; I believe all majorities do this.)

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor...
That's a lot of other stuff, and you express disagreement.

I'm sure we both agree it's the first model at this scale, hence the price.

> It's not really the beginning (1.0) of anything

It is a LLM w/o reasoning training.

Thus, the public decision to make 5.0 = 4.5 + reasoning.

> "more like the end...the last scale-up pre-training experiment."

It won't be the last scaled-up pre-training model.

I assume you mean, what I expect, and you go on to articulate: it'll be last scaled-up-pre-training-without-reasoning-training-too-relesed-publicly model.

As we observe, the value to benchmarks of, in your parlance, scaled-down pretraining, with reasoning training, is roughly the same as scaled-up pre-training without reasoning training.
But people are bothered about affording food and rent now, and when they see their tax euros aboard they're gonna be salty, and speak of potential future winnings (which are all gonna go to some megacorps anyway) are not comforting.
> The USA aligning with Russia

I keep seeing this sentiment, but I'm having trouble understanding it, especially since the terms of whatever possible agreement are not set.

To me, it seems the options are to compromise, which by definition is an alignment, or continue fighting indefinitely.

If compromise isn't an option, how do you see this ending? Or do you see some lesser compromise that could work?
Correct. The majority are not promoted. If they are in the first year of their current level/role and have previous experience, they still haven't accumulated much institutional knowledge to make them indispensable. While experience helps, their impact in a new role is still developing, and their departure is less likely to disrupt operations significantly.
That's the neat part: you don't.

I mean sure, there can be audits, 3rd party assurances, long histories without incidents, you can even check the code yourself.

But do you trust any of those completely to know what they're doing, not be compromised, to have actually done a thorough and total deep dive, and not missed anything (for example, something hidden in a tiny package like xz-utils) in the vast expanse of a codebase that is a modern browser? You shouldn't. In a small (<1000 LoC) codebase maybe, but a large one? It's not feasible. therefore...

> How do we actually know these browser forks don't contain malware of their own

You don't know, because you can't know, especially if you expand that beyond just malware, but also include dark patterns, back doors, and privacy disrespecting gems. So it becomes a matter of faith. Who do you trust more? The ones advocating for your privacy, or the ones removing such commitments from their website in light of a new ToS that has many people rightfully in an uproar?

These days, for projects of sufficient size/use, on a long enough timeframe, a project either dies or becomes enshittified. The key is to find that stage of a project/products life where you maximize usefulness and minimize enshittification. That's not to slander Waterfox, or any other project, but simply to assert that ultimately, there is rarely if ever a perfect solution that can be fully trusted.

Source: Trust me bro, I'm on the internet. No one ever lies on the internet.
The Kiel Institut for World Economics (Germany) has calculated that the support by the European Union and its member states has surpassed the support by the US.

While it is true, that the US delivered more weapons, they are far behind in terms of financial support and humanitarian aid.

So in total the US falls behind. It is also important to note, that about 70% of the aid by the US flow back to the US weapons manufacturers.

While Donald Trump demands 500 billion dollars in minerals from Ukraine for further support, their contribution so far is less than 120 billion dollars.
Use an AI-supporting editor like Cursor, or GitHub CoPilot, or perhaps Sonnet 3.7's GitHub integration.
But isn't the voting system wrong then?
It's an age old debate for sure but "bullshit for cowards" isn't reasoning about it, it's propaganda wording just as easily employed by the aggressor trying to silence people who don't support the war. Since there's no need to mask the real reasoning here, why employ those kinds of attacks?
The writers are very creative, yet the overall arc of the season is so very cliche.
We’re surrounded!
> You really think Windows (11, since anything older is gone) is a b2c product? It's free.

Windows is not "free". Win 11 Home price is $120, upgrade to Pro is $100 [0].

0 - https://www.amazon.com/s?k=windows%2011%20home&ref=glow_cls
I'm sorry, I don't care who you are or what the history between your country and the US is, you don't come and be disrespectful like that and get away with it.

All he had to do was was smile and wave, but Zelensky made it into a dick measuring contest which he was always going to lose.

He is a terrible leader and this is just more proof of it.
Unless you take the OpenAI approach and define AGI as the place that LLMs take you to.
Yes I hope this wakes people up and inspires the country to elect sober thoughtful people again. I'm pretty cynical though so I've learned not to expect much from modern politics.
There are pros and cons. I live in Canada now, and one major downside is that, because technically I would be an international student, I cannot afford a university. The tuition fee for international students is through the roof. But, ultimately, leaving Ukraine was a correct decision, because otherwise I would have ended up fighting Russia. In summary, it sucks but could have been worse.
Russia is a mafia that owns a gas station, not a global power. They’d be irrelevant without nuclear weapons. Their economy is roughly the same size as the state of Texas.
Is bookmark sync, say, a “Mozilla service”?
The Puritans became settlers in the New World because they were hated and thrown out of Europe / England so they set up shop and managed to derange society to this day in the US.
Both of those are b2b as well (a spreadsheet accounting program, come on), and were born from b2b, remember this was before the personal compute era, they transitioned with the era.
So these sciency folks have managed to move tooth from the mouth to the eyes but still want to pluck some teeth off to move around some other teeth parked wrongly; and then expect me to have something installed forever to keep them in place, even after all that planned uprooting. Huh.
There were non-MAGA republicans who still held Reagan-era values about freedom and democracy.
We're at peak ape technology but at this point in time for some reason we turn to a specific ape, not a smart one but an ape who feels he should rule the world, and is on the doorstep to world domination, one that feels entitled to this amount of power, and we ask him to do "the right thing"?

America, don't be the next force the rest of the world needs to fight. Wake the fuck up.
> China hasn’t been involved in a war for decades, and while its military looks good on paper, its actual performance in a real war still unknown.

This is a very important point. While China's military is huge and technologically advanced, it is structured very differently from western powers. To reduce the risk of a military coup, the PRC split up control of air, ground, and naval units, making it difficult to conduct joint operations. China's military is also structured more like the Soviet system, where decisions are made at the highest levels of command and lower levels are given little discretion. Information going up and down the chain of command can be delayed, ignored, or corrupted. This is inefficient in peacetime and can be disastrous in combat.

In contrast, most western powers have military branches that combine air, ground, and water forces (the US Army is the second-largest air force in the world, behind the US Air Force), and they are organized in a manner that encourages joint operations. Western militaries also push decisions to the lowest level possible, allowing forces to quickly adapt to changing conditions in combat.

Lastly, China has limited air refueling capability. This reduces the range and effectiveness of their air units. To reach targets far away, aircraft must carry external fuel tanks, compromising stealth, speed, and maneuverability.

It is for these reasons that China is very hesitant to test their military against any modern force. They're trying to fix these issues, but the PRC can't adopt the west's organizational style without making themselves vulnerable to a military coup, which (so far) they absolutely refuse to do.