skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
I would have thought that is obvious. Chain of thought is clearly the right path forwards. People don't stare at a thing and immediately come to a solution. Without chain of thought, you are mostly dealing with a statistical regurgitation machine. Effective for some tasks yes, but clearly not enough to meet the bar of general intelligence.

I think you are wrong that this is the limit for single shot though. We have reached a limit due to data, but I expect what will happen next is that we will transition into a slow growth phase where chain of thought models will be used to effectively create more training data, which will then be used to train a better single shot model, which will then be extended into a better chain of thought model, which will then produce higher quality training data for another single shot. And so on. Kind of like what happens as knowledge passes from teacher to student across successive generations. Effectively a continuing process of compression and growth in intelligence, but progressing rather slowly compared to what we have seen in the last 5 years.
> For god's sake read another book.

> you're beyond helping

Please don't get on the wrong side of the guidelines like this. I realize these are high-energy topics but this is important.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
My point is that he's biased off to the right
Haven't they always done that?
What year do you place “2.5 years after mainstream public buy-in” for aviation? I think you’ll find that in most periods, people with the means were paying a lot for the ability to “get there faster”, despite a bad early safety record. It did work great when it didn’t kill you, and despite that risk it was a hit (for those that could afford it).
> Us being locked into copilot

the customer of MSFT is management; product design and implementation for the C-Suite, their lawyers and their investors . You are a tool ; there is no us in this picture.
This has been very top of mind recently, to the point where I have started forcing myself to write with a blindfold on so I don't start self-editing before that part of the process. If it's dumb but it works....

Anyway, I put the process (quieted typing) up literally yesterday: https://quietedtyping.fyi

It's just taking ten minutes out of your day to do a little 'writing [as] thinking'. I have found it helpful, maybe others will do so as well.
Hijacking this somewhat, but shouldn't the engine be open-source so both Sean Hannity and Richard Stallman can see the code and protect their data from prying government eyes? Or maybe it's already open-source? There should be something like opentaxsolver that has a government stamp of approval.
You don't get $400B by stealing pennies from poor people.

For one, there aren't 100m poor people in the US. Not even close.
There are things that I at least understand, but who is opposed to direct tax filing and … why?
Looks like Europe won't have a choice at this point. The parabolic behavior of the leaders of the US is destabilizing and hard to cooperate with.
Just what open source projects need, contributers who don't bother to read the code they're contributing.
Intuit and their lobbyists, because.. you guessed it! Money.
If you still work at a company that concerns itself with the empathetic aspect of firing people, your experience isn't representative.
Just another obvious sign of the drive to privatizing everything.

I find it pretty amazing that conservatives would be against Direct File since the government is forcing people to pay taxes shouldn't the way to pay those taxes not be another tax?
There's a third choice, though. It's bad when speed limits are much lower than the natural speed of the road, for the reason you describe. And it's good when the natural speed of the road is the safe speed of the road. But in addition to those two, it's also possible to introduce fast, automated enforcement— speed cameras.

This, of course, applies just as much to the actual topic of the Economist article; new inheritance taxes are just and good, but they should be written to be enforceable, and then they should actually be enforced.
No. 3rd party browsers were allowed but they had to use WkWebView as engine.
Maybe think about switching to buying French submarines.
This is also pretty much the easiest thing the factor out through mixed effects modeling (among other methods if required). But your statement that higher scoring physicians go to places with healthier patient populations is not correct across all disciplines. Often it can be the opposite: the best physicians go to the major hospitals (usually but not always university affiliated) located in major population centers that draw in the sickest/worst/rarest cases from the surrounding geography.
Gary Marcus. By all accounts, he doesn't understand how LLMs work, so usually he's wrong about technical matters.[a]

But here, I think he's right about business matters. The massive investment in computing capacity we've seen in recent years, by Open AI and others, can generate positive returns only if the technology continues to improve rapidly so it can overcome its limitations and failure modes in the short run.

If the rate of improvement has slowed down, even temporarily, OpenAI and others like Anthropic are likely to face financial difficulties.

---

[a] In the words of Geoff Hinton: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7ltNiRrDHQ

---

Note: At the moment, the OP is flagged. To the mods: It shouldn't be, because it conforms to the HN guidelines.
So people hate the IRS and politicians can defund the IRS for tech bros and their companies.
You jest, but R2R is what some audiophiles are generally on about as being the bees knees, and has been getting popular again. I like physical music, but the prices on those is too much. I have heard some really good sounding reels, though I can never shake the feeling that they just have been recorded really, really well, using expensive equipment I can't afford to even rent, and would've sounded the same having been recorded digitally.
Postponing elections during a war is nothing new, even in liberal democracies.
Good piece, but not YC specific imho. If you assume generative AI is going to continue to advance (reasonable pace, not AGI), it is democratization of power in the same way renewables are vs centralized fossil fuel generation. If everyone can build inexpensively, do you need capital concentration (VC funding) to explore a TAM, expand to your maximum potential within it, and exit? Its an interesting thesis, and should be exciting to see what we discover collectively from the experiment. The Singularity is not near, but certainly we are rapidly approaching a point of perhaps more aggressive discussion of what value and meaning means.

Broadly speaking, what role does capital play in a world where capital's power is diminished or is less needed (digital and software specific of course, does not apply to physical world capital needs, manufacturing, etc) through technology advancements? Is capital's chasing of returns through VC and technology an existential crisis, like a snake eating its tail?
Gary is great laying it out for the layman but he talks as if he "thought" it all up. It's really Thomas Piketty who pointed out the issue way before Gary.
I don’t understand why you need rich people in the first place. You don’t need human beings that hoard wealth that they didn’t make. It’s superfluous.
Amazing how the idea of being able to file tax returns online, without paying for a commercial service to do it, is considered far-left extremism in the US.

You’d think that simplifying tax returns and reducing costs in the taxation system would be something the right could get behind?
But what can they do? It’s easy in a bloody dictatorship to just raise and take it in your hands, simply unionizing against oppression forces and ignoring personal grave danger. But they are in the US, it’s completely safe there, so it doesn’t work like that. You speak, get angry and wait for some big corporation or bureaucracy to sort it out for you. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43148889

It’s funny to watch (probably) the same people in a tutorial-level situation who thought that if I’m a man/human/etc I should stand by their principles and just go and overthrow the dictator of the place I happen to live in.
OpenAI releases one dud and suddenly people come out of the woodwork to trash them.

I agree that OpenAI's endless hyping about AGI seems pretty unrealistic, but let's take a breather here. There are no major research projects where you don't run into setbacks and failures before you reach your goals.

And even if they never really progress beyond where they are today with their current models, just bringing down the cost could open up a lot of doors for useful applications.
> We live as long as kings, with greater variety of food and drink, greater variety of entertainment, and big comfortable houses.

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/chart-of-the-day-or-century-8...

> During the most recent 22.5-year period from January 2000 to June 2022, the CPI for All Items increased by 74.4% and the chart displays the relative price increases over that time period for 14 selected consumer goods and services, and for average hourly wages. Seven of those goods and services have increased more than the average inflation rate of 74.4%, led by huge increases in hospital services (+220%), college tuition (+178%), and college textbooks (+162%), followed by increases in medical care services (+130%), child care (+115%), food and beverages (82%) and housing (80%). Average hourly earnings have also increased more than average inflation since January 2000 — by nearly 100% — indicating that hourly wages have increased 25% more over the last two decades that the average increase in consumer prices.

> The other seven price series have been flat or have declined since January 2000, led by TVs (-97%), toys (-72%), computer software (-70.5%), and cell phone service (-41%). The CPI series for new cars, household furnishings (furniture, appliances, window coverings, lamps, dishes, etc.), and clothing have remained relatively flat for the last 22 years while average consumer prices increased by 74.4% and wages by 99.6%, although all three series (TVs, toys, and software) have
Both can be true at once. I am not backpedaling.

I was additionally referring to my previous comment in the thread, which was not just about the users of smart speakers but the functions they perform. My overall opinion is that smart speakers have limited value. I was pointing out how everything you might prefer to do on them has an existing or easy alternative or just isn’t much of a solution.

I acknowledge that people are allowed to have their own preferences but I still think they’re a dumb preference and I’m exercising my preference to dunk on that preference just like I’ll prefer to criticize anyone who says the Jeep Grand Cherokee is a good purchase.
That depends on the prompt injections (for good or ill) Cursor IDE is making along the way.
Unfortunately for 18F's workers, the projects they were working on improved the lives of ordinary Americans (like direct-file). There is no appetite in the current administration for such projects.
The sanctions have almost entirely shut down Russian airliner production. They have only managed to deliver a handful of complete aircraft since 2022, and those largely used parts already on hand. Much of their supply chain is just gone and will take years to rebuild. When they eventually do get the complete production system up and running again their engines will still be less fuel efficient: airlines live and die by fuel efficiency.
> Successful organizations and people will know how to ask the right question, evaluate the answers and act wisely in response. They’ll also have to figure out what to do with their newfound free time.

Lol. They will be paid. Others won't work or will have other kinds of employment. Like with the advent of email, newfound free time will be used for work, back to the grind folks.
I don't know if Kyle is right but "any good after mainstream public buy-in" and "worked great continuously from inception to today" is quite the goalpost move.
I (obviously) did not mean "dependent" in the sense of can't survive without it. The energy prices in the US reflect the low price energy products they buy from Canada.

It's ridiculous and false to say that in general Canada has a protectionist policy. There are some areas (like maybe milk and maple) where Canada is protecting its local producers but in general Canada is pro free trade. Most of the the trade skirmishes between the countries were around things like soft woods where IMO it was the Americans who were violating the trade agreements.

The insinuation that Canada is somehow taking advantage of the US in trade is just nonsense. The trade imbalance is a reflection of the slower growing Canadian economy (because obviously we are taking advantage of the Americans) and the energy/resources we sell to the US (too cheaply).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_They_Came
In fairness, GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 were much closer to AGI than anything before. Many people also believed AGI was around the corner in the old LISP days, when there was much less capital.

I still believe GPT-4 has some general intelligence, just a very tiny amount. It can take what it was trained on and slightly modify it to answer a slightly novel question.
I suppose we could simulate tripping in that fashion but it would seem easier to affect a distributed activation function or other parameter to the simulation.

Not sure why you're asking me.
I read the parent comment as being sarcastic.
You have cool images, but turning them into a GIF is boring somehow — sign-ups, ads, watermarks, all that junk.

Therefore, I built gif.tonemaki.com — a free, no-nonsense GIF animator. Just upload, arrange, set speed/scale, and boom— done. No logins, no tracking, no friction.

I made it for myself, but now it’s public. Try it out and let me know what you think!
I wouldn’t give up on teachers just yet. The 5-paragraph essay is probably dead as are mathematics homework assignments that are boring variations of the same problem over-and-over. The field is being cleared for new ideas and I bet some of them will prove to be very good.
In the US privatization is conservative, so anything that reduces private profiteering on mandatory activities is by definition “far left”.
It seems to me that some nerds with a thousand GPUs have clearly made a machine think. State-of-the-art AI models are better than me at a significant number of intellectual tasks; what would it mean, precisely, to say that I'm thinking when I write a bad poem but GPT-4o is not thinking when it writes a better one?

The specific term "AGI" has always referred to a program that strictly matches to human intelligence, with no significant areas where it's worse than a typical human. I agree that we're not there and not obviously close to there. But the idea that it's all a parlor trick and LLMs have no cognition at all seems obviously false to me.
Can’t read the article even with archive.org. Can someone share it somewhere?
That is not how the EU does these kinds of things. These loans are without any expectations of payback.
And I don't necessarily disagree either; good callout that it _was_ about improperly configured ACL's, I meant more that it wasn't related to keeping test rules alive.

For 150k+ salaries, frontend dev salaries are generally a lot less than their backend counterparts. And scrappy startups might not have cash for competitive salaries or senior engineers. I think these are a few of the reasons why Firebase becomes dangerous.
> These are powerful building blocks, they're just not the be all end all. The building blocks up stack that use these as part of a broader architecture, that shape these and many other traditional techniques in software... this is where the real value will be unlocked.

I could not agree more. There is much value still to be gained from blockchain technology!
https://archive.is/uCdV7
Aaron Sorkin (writing for the MC in The Newsroom) called this "a bias toward fairness."
I Don't Like Sand
Anyone setting up infrastructure, security researchers, security teams and IT teams.

It’s also actually very useful too in the brand management field, especially to detect phishing websites.
No only won't you see it burn, you'll see commercial-quality LLMs on consumer devices in a few years (if they're not there already).
Bombardier makes only private jets now. The C-series was sold to Airbus and is now the 220.. Q-Series turboprops were sold to De Havilland. The CRJ-series regional jets were sold to Mitsubishi.

De Havilland was owned by Bombardier, but Viking Air bought De Havilland's designs and Dash 8, and renamed the holding company De Havilland.
That was something everyone needed to see IMHO.

The problem isn't going away, and pretty much all of Europe(all western liberal democracies really) have come out in support since that meeting. They may get what they need yet.
I question even calling it an "over" diagnosis, when its not even clear that the diagnosis has any non-socially constructed objective metrics by which we can call that diagnosis accurate.
Here's the tweet that prompted Elon's 'deleted' tweet:

>18F, the far left government wide computer office that was recently taken over by allies of @elonmusk, is also the same agency that built Elizabeth Warren's "Direct File" tax program.

>Direct File puts the government in charge of preparing peoples tax returns for them.

https://nitter.poast.org/alx/status/1886415751528972515?

Clearly, they think there is something malicious in having the federal government manage this service despite the fact that the result gets submitted....to the federal government anyway
Thanks, I was trying to use the Wayback machine but I couldn’t see the article.
How does divorcing Europe make the US stronger against China?
This is going to sound disrespectful, but nobody cares. Both bloggers and CEOs will continue to argue they have the bestest AI. Our goal should simply be making sure AI is helping more than it harms. Much like nuclear research 75 years ago, we've setup this century where AI will be simultaneously massively weaponized and massively assistive technology. There's also an ultimate goal of having AGI solve all our problems like fusion was supposed to do. Let me know when your AI CEO is ready to discuss how all this scaling is helping the kids sleep better instead of making quarterly profits rise faster than the competition.
But there's no genocide in Ukraine towards Ukrainians even now when "cannons speak": liberated civilians aren't killed or imprisoned, instead, criminal Russia dares to give them homes, pensions and employment (and not a forced one)!
I don't agree with you that the words "illegal immigrant" create violence. Also, "immigrant" does not carry a negative connotation in most uses as far as I can tell. The negative connotation comes from the word "illegal," which marks someone who commits a crime (illegal immigration) as a criminal. Of course, aside from arrest and deportation, they do not deserve to be subject to violence or maltreatment. That is how every country in the world treats people who immigrate illegally.
If you store files properly they won't corrupt. If you're that worried, use ZFS or something similar.
Is it the famous "We will give them every support, short of help" line? /s

quote: from "Yes Prime Minister"
Efabless – Shutdown Notice
Reading down the list, I’m not sure the US is doing much better than Brazil. Mexico is stand out terrible.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_homicide_rat...
What on earth is the GSA
He looks like a dog, it was embarrassing
> Also quite literally the meaning of a good investment is “it goes up and to the right” and anything that goes up and to the right in perpetuity is bound to become unaffordable if the wages or wealth of the buyers doesn’t increase at the same rate as the asset.

I feel like you're just not understanding the math.

Suppose you want to invest in real estate, but property values are low and stable, zero capital gains. You invest $500,000 in twenty $25,000 units, rent them out and receive $250/mo each in net profit, $3000/year in gains/unit, 20 units, $60,000/year in total gains. Then you invest the $60,000 back into real estate, so now you have $560,000 in housing and next year you collect $67,200/year in gains from renting them, which you invest back into real estate, so then you have $627k in assets.

Number chart goes up and to the right, even though the price per unit hasn't moved.

It's not different for homeowners. If you buy a house -- it doesn't matter if it's $25,000 or $500,000 -- you no longer have to pay rent to somebody else. Whatever you used to be paying in rent, now you get to keep. You can invest that in more real estate or in stocks or whatever you want, but by buying a house to live in, you have a return in terms of imputed rent regardless of whether the value of the house goes up.
I read it at age 18 and thought, "I should go buy a motorcycle and ride it around. That's the answer." Then I read it at age 30 and thought..."Oh, that wasn't the point at all."
This is the reason why classical music CDs (and radio) usually sound much quieter. More dynamic range.
then if you leave or are let go, you are leaving a significant part of yourself behind that you cannot take with you.

I suspect that's "a feature, not a bug" in the company's view.
Lol literal first four words of the comment said he's not a surgeon
Homeowners know this statement is not true.

If your neighbor's house goes up in price, yours is likely to go up too, all else being equal.

-

Economic interactions can create new (emergent) value, not just reshuffle existing value.

Adam Smith's recognition of this fact is what gave us the current western economies, where even poor people are relatively wealthy, compared to back in his day.

Adam Smith illustrated this 'emergent value' with his pin factory example: One person working alone might make 20 pins per day. But when ten people specialize and collaborate, they could produce 48,000 pins daily - not by using more resources, but through smarter organization. This 240x productivity gain created entirely new value without taking from anyone else.

* Wealth Of Nations, Adam Smith, 1776 (original) , pin factory example happens to be Book 1 Chapter 1; a digitized version of a 1902 reprint can be found at : https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations/Book_I/...
Really amazing how much of current reality consists of direct 1-1 plot points in Babylon 5. Not like some Simpsons reference, but entire season story arcs.

I think we are up to Season 3, Ep 9.

The president will declare martial law, and will issue executive order to dissolve the senate.
The word on the street is that he's using North Korean soldiers because he can get them and he prefers that they are killed and not Russians. But he'll send Russians too.

You're applying western thinking here. The same sort of western thinking that thought Putin wouldn't invade Ukraine because what's in it for him or imagine some red lines or whatever. Russians aren't western. They don't think like us. The west always does this.

There isn't such a thing of at odds with his own population in Russia. Again you're applying western thinking to Russians. Check out some Russian jokes.
Rich people, because... you guessed it! Money.

(Direct File doesn't directly affect them, but the push towards automated tax collection strikes at the heart of their games.)
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing."

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2010/12/04/good-men-do/
What’s the appropriate number of employees for the federal government?
Are you suggesting the condition isn't real? Or that the diagnostic criteria are entirely subjective?