>That's why local militias from overseas were decided by themselves to organize an "election" about whether the "Republic of Crimea" should declare independence or on the other hand if the "Republic of Crimea" should declare independence. And afterwards these militias finally got to join the Russian forces, for which they all had completed the necessary paperwork years ago.

... Putin said that the little green men were Russian military. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20796 It's translated servicemen but basically military.

> This completely breaks my mind as well. Sure, Ukraine has a very ... odd ... relationship with their Nazi past, but Putin was acting as if the Nazis from the dark side of the moon had descended upon Ukraine. And then this issue is turned into a "btw. footnote" during all negotiation attempts.

The best theory I've heard, and admittedly these theories put forward by American, is that Putin is lying about the Nazi's. To him at least, part of his world view appears to be in effect that there is Ukraine. In short that Ukraine is a mistake done by Lenin forced about by a anti Russian agenda of some kind, and that erasing the imagine imaginary line between Ukraine and Russia is necessary to return Russia to the world stage like it was it was part of the USSR.

No idea how true it is but it makes more sense then any other explanation I've heard thus far. And the Kremlin has published an essay by Putin that seems to support that world view even if he's very flowery about it. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

That and there's the theory that Putin himself was being fed in effect bad intelligence about both the readiness of his own armed forces as well as the general attitude of Ukrainians towards Russians; namely that the Ukrainians would welcome Russian liberation. Not so much out of malice, but the fact that a lot of folks were telling Putin what they thought he wanted to hear. Given what Putin did to his rivals, not too hard to make a guess why they wouldn't want to give him bad news.

>Most people dont believe this, but Russia doesnt want Ukrainian territory except for Crimea (due to its strategic control over the Strait of Kerch, I assume). This is because of the utter mess it'll cause in the future.

... Ooookay. ...So I've got a really big problem with that theory. Mostly because the actions that Russian military has taken indicates that they want nothing short but to take Ukraine in it's entirety, but were ill prepared for what they got.

But suppose you say is true. What purpose does seizing and holding does Kherson serve to in keeping the control over Crimea and the Strait of Kerch, exactly? It's on the other side of Crimea from Russia. Why attempt go even further and seize Odessa?

Why open a northern front in the Kharkiv Oblast? It's on the opposite side of Ukraine.

Why try to open a front from Belarus into Kyiv?

That's an awful lot of fronts to open up to try take territory that Russia does not want.

>IMO Russia is genuinely scared of Ukraine joining NATO, hence when Ukraine joined the NATO EOP program (used by Sweden and Finland to join NATO) Russia began preparing the 2022 invasion.

First, neither Sweden nor Finland entered into the EOP until after 2014. They were interoperable and friendly, but the EOP didn't happen until May in 2014. Directly in response to the rhe Russian annexation of was more or less done in April of 2014.

Second, Russia got that when they seized Crimea. Ukraine couldn't join even if they wanted at that point by NATO's own rules without renouncing control of Crimea.