skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
The author has come up with their own, _unusual_ definition of the bitter lesson. In fact, as a direct quote, the original Is:

> Seeking an improvement that makes a difference in the shorter term, researchers seek to leverage their human knowledge of the domain, but the only thing that matters in the long run is the leveraging of computation.

eg: “the study of linguistics doesn’t help you build an LLM” or “you don’t need to know about chicken physiology to make a vision system that tells you how old a chicken is”

The author then uses a narrow and _unusual_ definition of what computation _means_, by saying it simply means access to fast chips, rather than the work you can perform on them, which would obviously include how efficiently you use them.

In short, this article misuses two terms to more simply say “looks like the scaling laws still work”.
what's with people not having beef with USAID? It's done so many crazy and bad things, for example:

USAID funded the hepatitis vaccination drive that the CIA used as a cover for espionage against the bin laden family, leading to polio outbreak in pakistan.

https://pulitzercenter.org/stories/he-led-cia-bin-laden-and-...

Distaste for USAID in any other time would be bipartisan; the Clinton Administration floated shuttering it too. If you go to DC a lot of insiders will say, 'yeah, USAID's got to go'.
There are no more "your routers" for about 10 years. The router is given to you by the ISP, and you don't have the root password for it, you can only reboot it over an APP on your phone.

The prefix is also not delegated to that router, the router does npd proxying, and the ISP only routes the ips which have the corresponding NAs recorded into its database.
I wish it only transcoded things on explicit request, not based on its opinion. The LG TV profile it ships with is incorrect, and it's not at all clear how to stop it transcoding.
Renaming from “safety” to “security”.

English is slightly unusual, in that many other languages use the same word for both.
> dominant egg producers . . . have leveraged the crisis to raise prices, amass record profits, and consolidate market power

Call me ignorsnt, but I'm surprised to see fewer cases of this kind of exploitative capitalism here in the EU. The only similar case that cones to mind is the gas and diesel price hike.
Am I missing something or are Americans just more accepting of agressive capitalism like this? Something similar is Healthcare. Insulin for example is dirt cheap to produce but costs the buyer hundreds (iirc) of dollars.
oh what a surprise, a new model performs better on barcharts than the old models. yaawn
"The exception that proves the rule" does not mean that an exception confirms a rule in a logical sense. Instead, it originates from legal and linguistic contexts where an explicit exception implies the existence of a general rule. E.g. a sign that says "No parking on Sundays" implies that the rule is that parking is fine on other days.
You implicitly assume, LLMs are actually important enough to make a difference on the geopolitical level.

So far, I haven't seen any indication that this is the case. And I'd say, hyped up speculations by people financially incentivized to hype AI should be taken with an entire mine full of salt.
Don't forget it isn't just money; there's a whole heap of infrastructure that already exists to make this cheaper (standards for electricity, production scale for said standards, etc) but also socio-economic infrastructure (rule of law, etc). Imagine trying to build the same scale of infrastructure in a country with rampant corruption or in a war zone.

In particular from a strategic level consider all the benefits of Mahan's "Influence of Sea Power"[0] and the benefit nations with suitable sea power / access to global markets has on being able to build the necessary infrastructure at scale quickly in order to support such endeavours. And this isn't just about raw "Sea Power" but all the concomitant requirements to achieve this, in particular the "Number of population", "Character of the people", and "Character of the government".

[0] Alfred Thayer Mahan; "The Influence of Sea Power on History"
Backyard chickens are great if you have the space, time, and patience, but they're hardly a solution to systemic issues... The real fix is a more diversified, resilient supply chain... And not just pushing food production onto individuals
>It's extremely difficult to increase compute by 100 times, but with sufficient investment in talent, achieving a 10x increase in compute is more feasible.

The article explains how in reality the opposite is true. Especially when you look at it long term. Compute power grows exponentially, humans do not.
The amount of research (or lack thereof) into whether the name was already taken in the same domain is disappointing. For me, F8 will always be this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairchild_F8
> I'm told the eggs taste way better, I don't really notice it because I really only eat my own eggs, but perhaps I just got used to them

At 2 years old my son could blind taste test tell the difference between my neighbor's chicken's eggs and store bought eggs.

He refused to eat eggs (still doesn't) until we convinced him to try one of the eggs from our neighbor's chicken's. He liked that egg. Every time we've tried to pass (fancy!) store eggs off to him as our neighbor's eggs he's called us out for lying to him.

He'll reliably eat eggs from the chickens across the street and nowhere else.

So yes, there is a difference in taste!
The Le Chat Web UI, after having some code and text generated, slowed down to unusable levels for me(the UI itself, probably has some JS code that goes through all the DOM every time). That's why I downloaded the app.

Generally, I feel like all the AI models are about the same at this point. Grok in Twitter has the ability to access real time events information but the rest seems to be interchangeable at this point.

I pay for ChatGPT for higher usage limits, then use all the rest for different things in order to keep history for different things separated(not because one is better than the other in the smartness department).
I really wouldn't use Donald Trump as an example character model...
There is also a world of semi-faangs. Something like working for salesforce or workday or even vercel or fly.io. These pay good money and will interview hard but maybe more accessible than the hard core Faangs. (And Facebook and Amazon are known ad hard places to stay at anyway).

Lots of choices out there!
It looks like neural network based software is to surpass humans in intelligence in every task in the forseeable future.

If one country moves along this direction faster than the others, no country will stand a chance to compete with them militarily or economically.
LLMs aren't the only kind of AI.

Having hardware and software suppliers all together makes it more likely even if you assume (like I do) that we're at least one paradigm shift away from the right architecture, despite how impressively general Transformers have been.

But software is easy to exfiltrate, so I think anyone with hardware alone can catch up extremely fast.
Vaccination campaigns are “crazy and bad” because they might be hijacked by the CIA?

I think you’ve identified the wrong culprit there buddy.
You are joking right?

"Spring is a marvel that sprang out of the experience of very, very talented people." --> sounds very culty to me.

And yes I maintain both Spring and non-Spring JVM projects.
Sounds like a classic case of -not the cheapest option, but definitely the most rewarding-. The ethical aspect is a huge plus: knowing exactly how your eggs are produced and giving the chickens a good life.
not might. Were. A USAID that isn't problematic would have stopped it. It failed to; just one symptom of the problems at USAID.
This seems like a criticism of the CIA, not USAID, no?

> The decision to enlist Afridi was probably made by the CIA station chief in Islamabad and was passed on to the Counterterrorism Center back in Langley.
Yeah, definitely not a money-saver, especially with high-quality feed
It's funny. Le Chat's gaslighting me in French. Claims Mistral develops ChatGPT when answering in French, but OpenAI when in English.

For your amusement too: https://imgur.com/EgmQ0Ph
Intelligence is everything. These things are intelligent- already superhuman in speed and a few limited domains, soon they're going to exceed humans in almost every respect. The advantage they give to the country that owns them is nuclear-weapons like.
> decimal separator is a (thin non-breaking) space

i really hope you mean thousands separator ...
don't fool yourself. USAID had the power to stop this.
I would expect it will be the market leader yes. But is there a market large enough to support the investment? That is debatable. If there isn’t then they will be in a deficit that is likely to do serious damage to the economy and investor confidence.

Currently there is no hard ROI on LLMs for example other than force bundling and using it to leverage soft outcomes (layoffs) and generating trash. User interest and revenue drops off fairly quickly. And there are regulations coming in elsewhere.

It’s really not looking good.
I've never had even the slightest bit of interest in owning an iPhone, but if this is the testing ground for their new modem, I'm excited to see it come to the mac in the next few years.
First, its not just about LLMs. Its not an LLM that replaced human drivers in Waymo cars.

Second, how could AI not be the deciding geopolitical factor of the future? You expect progress to stop and AI not to achieve and surpass human intelligence?
Back then when film was invented, people believed that photography stole a part of their soul every time they was captured and replicated. Since then, artist stop with attempt to paint realistic reproductions on canvas and all kind of *ism was a reaction (impressionism, expressionism...).

We live in similar times. AI is new tool that opens new possibilities and force us about rethinking about certain things, such as education, authenticity of consumed media, meaning of art, etc.
Probably covered here:

> In the old days you had to run a script or install a package to hook into their monitoring....but with IPMI et al being standard they don't need anything from you to do their job
Human do write code that scalable with compute.

The performance is always raw performance * software efficiency. You can use shitty software and waste all these FLOPs.
Revocation of trust is always a tricky issue, you can look at TLS certificates to see what a can of worms that is.

The Signal server does not forward messages to your devices, and the list of devices someone has (including your own) can and has to be queried to communicate with them, since each device will establish unique keys signed by that IK, so it isn't as bad as having invisible devices that you'd never aware of. That of course relies on you being able to ensure the server is honest, and consistent, but this is already work in progress they are doing.

I think most of the issue here doesn't lie in the protocol design but in (1) how you "detect" the failure scenarios (like here, if your phone is informed a new device was added, without you pressing the Link button, you can assume something's phishy), (2) how do you properly warn people when something bad happens and (3) how do you inform users such that you both have a similar mental model. You also have to achieve these things without overwhelming them.
DeepSeek-V3-Turkish
This project translates the English descriptions in the DeepSeek-V3 AI repository into Turkish.
https://github.com/can-deliktas/DeepSeek-V3-Turkish
That's why I said: "synthfuels made from hydrogen and sequestered CO2 as base chemicals."

You need to combine the hydrogen and CO2 into methane and from that into longer-chain liquid hydrocarbons, and that process is complex and energy-intensive even if you use microbes for the job.
Those two points are important for me, too.
Conversations are important, too. However, if there's no need to write down the result then a) or the topic was something a minor detail, b) or we are in 'crises management' mode (maybe permanently).
Having good quality valves is how you die old. How come there is no source in the model?
I have interpreted many of the opinions about 'AI is so potentially dangerous that we better let only a handful of big companies do it' (as said by the owners of those companies and their cronies) being about regulatory capture and rent seeking.

I think Meta released the first open model, LLAMA, because they were behind OpenAI's ChatGPT charm offensive and saw the strategic value in giving away what they had spent millions making in order to erode a competitor's leading position.

Again Deekseek gave away what they trained, and claimed it hadn't been that expensive to train anyway, in order to erode the competitor's leading position.

But with time and regulatory capture this dries up. At least within America.

There's a good chance that Deepseek basically surprised the CCP too. But they have catapulted themselves to big national and international prominence. So going forward their future releases will very much be sanctioned by the Chinese government. So we'll only see further model giveaways if it's seen as strategically beneficial to devalue the competitors in America.

(Thinking further ahead: at some point soon there might be a LLM model or augmented model that is so good at getting probabilities right that it can 'outthink' a human. At that point, whichever billionaire controls it has zero upside in sharing it with anyone. It's purpose is no longer to fuel a funding bubble as they can instead use it to outthink humans for their own personal gain. They won't think 'this can outthink humans, so we can offer better clip art pickers and other AI integrations for the masses who might pay for access to it'. They will think 'how do I use this super intelligence to outsmart the humans currently voting in democracies or humans guiding the markets?)
And this doesn't even scratch copyleft. Getting credit is nice and all but i publish my stuff under AGPL because i want my users to have the right to modify the software, even if somebody else builds on top of my work.

LLMs are being used to launder my code right now and take away my users' right.

There were cases where LLMs regurgitated functions verbatim, which caused a bit of uproar on Twitter and that's it. There should be massive lawsuits that take illegally trained LLMs deep into unprofitability.

But i guess the west is competing with China now and morality or even legally goes out the widow in a war.
Good for google. Plenty of passable interview candidates then.

Dang! I knew it was a mistake leaving my hat at home. Little things like that people tend to forget.
who even knows the law in the moment? the seal of the president is p convincing. heck just look at all the social engineering/phishing that works
He has been publicly attacking Fauci for his handling of Covid and retweeting antivax people
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> if the US disregard truth

There's no if about it. The Trump administration entirely disregards truth, and parrots blatant lies from the kremlin.

Is there precedent for this? This seems… historically significant to say the least.
How can IPMI detect the cause (kernel panic vs user command) for restart?
I always thought it meant "the exception (to the rule-of-thumb) proves the (hard, correct) rule".
My understanding is USAID was one of those organizations thet refused to pause spending when Trump lawfully asked all agencies to stop spending (it was a 90 day hold, not a outright denial, only congress can do that). Agencies that should adhere to trumps orders went to the top.
US has been reshoring hardware for a while, but that didn’t stop DeepSeek and certainly won’t prevent presently allied powers from building AIs.

A big lesson seems to be that one can rapidly close the gap, with much less compute, once paths have been blazed by others. There’s a first-mover disadvantage.
If the bitter lesson were true we'd be getting sota results out of two layer neural networks using tanh as activation functions.

It's a lazy blog post that should be thrown out after a minute of thought by anyone in the field.
As I see a lot of talk about people seemingly happy to pay for this, apparently because they think they will gain something out of it.

Backstory: My main machine at home is Windows (for games) and all other computers I have used since about 2010 have had Linux or FreeBSD on them (unless employer provided).

As I'm a bit of a distro and DE hopper it happened to me more than once than I couldn't remember how my current GUI file manager was called... simply because I hadn't started it for half a year or longer. (Since then I've installed thunar most of the time).

And I find this so fascinating because I use the Windows Explorer all the time. So either I am simply doing different things on Linux (while working and coding in my spare time) - or I use the shell so much that I don't even think about using a GUI file manager, if I have a proper shell available (not a fan of WSL). I plan to switch to Linux even on my gaming PC this year, we'll see if it works out...

Long story short: I am not averse to paying for good software (although I prefer it to be FLOSS and I contribute in a miniscule way by reporting bugs, sometimes fixing them) - but if I'm not on Windows I am not the target audience _at all_. And I find it kinda surprising.

Anyway, I wish the author good luck.
What makes you think so, exactly? It's not like CIA would let everyone within the organisation know they are doing it. Do you think USAID could just say no to CIA?
> testing powerful AI models for national security risks

Er... and then what?
Was Shopify just running a team it didn't want until government changed? Doesn't sound very private sector to me. What other things do these companies do just to appease current administrations/cultural trends?
> You expect progress to stop and AI not to achieve and surpass human intelligence?

A word generator is not intelligence. There’s no “thinking” involved here.

To surpass human intelligence, you’d first need to actually develop intelligence, and llms will not be it.
You seem to merge two different points. Not reading based on sloppiness is defensible. Not reading based on the author's resume less so.
Probably by choosing Transcoding: Direct Play in the admin account settings options for the Server.

https://jellyfin.org/docs/general/server/transcoding/

I recently setup Jellyfin pretty thoroughly on a small form media centre with 4 x 2TB SSD drives for the media and went through all of this for direct to TV, via client to iPhones and to an XBox etc.

I passed that on three weeks back to a son for his household so I don't have local server to log into anymore and double check (the documentation online tends bear an approximate resemblance to current versions).

This might also shed some light : https://forum.jellyfin.org/t-purpose-of-force-transcode-in-u...

as it talks about the manual editing of the preference | option files for servers and users.
Your post got me thinking about where I am right now in my life. We’re planning how we want to retire and recently bought an old home that has a smattering of produce trees. Citrus, olives, figs, and walnuts. Learning how to deal with them (with help from the neighbors) has been stressful, but also very satisfying after mainly being in front of a computer for 20+ years.
Until the past few years $1 was normal here, often less when they went on sale. Also, most eggs in the supermarket are locally grown. Transporting them is a PITA both due to fragility and spoilability.
> I may be wrong about that, but we will have to wait to find out.

You are wrong.

> That's a trope, indeed already a cliché

Dude, that you think you might be right demonstrates that you haven't been paying attention.

Musk doesn't just have form, he's going for the record.

There will be a stink around Y Combinator's AI Startup School event. Musk will bring the stink with him.

And the source of that stink may be as simple as attendees having family members sacked by DOGE. Or it might be because he's of such weak character that he lies about being good at video games. Or perhaps it will be America's sell out of Ukraine, something Musk has advocated for:

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/04/1126714896/elon-musk-ukraine-...

There's lots to choose from.
TinyCompiler – a 500-ish lines of code compiler in a weekend
UBI is perfect tool to make citizens obedient to government. Collectivism in history showed how deadly centrally planned economy is.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gosplan
It will be interesting to see how talent acquisition evolves. Many great engineers were put off by strong DEI-focused PR, and even more oppose the sudden opportunistic shift to the right. Will Muslims continue to want to work for Google? Will Europeans work for X? Some may have previously avoided close relations with China for ethical reasons—will the same soon apply to the US?
My friend had a racist rooster who abused the brown chickens and got along with the white ones.

He traded it in for a more "woke" one.
Better check his pockets on the way out :)
It's not an either/or. Your hiring of talent is only limited by your GPU spend if you can't hire because you ran out of money.

In reality pushing the frontier on datacenters will tend to attract the best talent, not turn them away.

And in talent, it is the quality rather than the quantity that counts.

A 10x breakthrough in algorithm will compound with a 10x scaleout in compute, not hinder it.

I am a big fan of Deepseek, Meta and other open model groups. I also admire what the Grok team is doing, especially their astounding execution velocity.

And it seems like Grok 2 is scheduled to be opened as promised.