skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Investment bubbles have been in effect since at least the 17th century. When your Uber driver is extolling the virtues of investing in XYZ-R-US, it is time to dump your shares in it and related companies.

The value of investments are primarily driven by one of two factors:
1. the return on the investment, e.g. dividends, rents; or
2. the increase in price you expect upon on-selling.
Does solving captchas generate $1000/hour? I assume you're conflating amounts here, or messed up an order of magnitude somewhere.
This is a good thing. Google has an extensive library of specialized calendars you can add to yours. If you want these events, you can add them.

I personally don't want things on my calendar that aren't mine or have nothing to do with me getting the services I need being potentially unavailable.
Joshua Clymer on "How AI might take over in 2 years"
Sam Harris has some of the best, arguably more constructive, critiques of Elon. I guess they used to be some degree of friendly with each other, exchanging text messages and such, but that has since ended.

I’ve generally found his take on things fairly insightful and worth hearing out. I know some people can’t stand him, and I don’t agree with him about everything, but I think it leaves you with a decent sense of what has happened to Elon over the years.

Kara Swisher is also familiar with Elon over the years and her commentary definitely elucidates some of the more bizarre aspects of his new persona. Where it probably came from, how things have shaken out, what he was like before when his quirks were present yet not as obvious, etc.

I mention them because your point about not envying them anymore is deeply justified by what these people have to say. They paint this picture that makes you pity him more than anything. He seems like a very intelligent 15 year old trapped in a man’s body with an incredible nerd complex, always deeply craving to be initiated yet never finding his way there. He throws his money and power around, but inside he’s a deeply troubled, needy, weak little boy. Addicted to twitter, fiending for more attention seemingly every moment. Possibly addicted to hard drugs. What a mess.

I got a laugh out of the mean girls sequel part, haha.
the 'floppotron' is notable enough for its own wikipedia page

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floppotron
Yes, the planes taxi to a terminal under the city.

It would create problems, but the problems would be for the designers and maintainers of the infrastructure, not for the passengers.

Airplanes are not fundamentally that much bigger than trains, which routinely go under the city.
Anecdotally (can't say how I know), many firms did very well in the 2020-2021 Covid crash, also its quite cheap to say buy 50 million in far OTM puts to guard against black swan events. It's far more likely that a slow slide in SPY will show some Beta correlation than anything else.
> This isn't what I suggest at all

This you?

> They can either have $40B in OpenAI equity or $97B.

In other words: the big number trumps the small number - QED.

> and zero on what it means to OpenAI-NP

Why do you believe OpenAI-NP wouldn't care about all the issues I raised?
When did we stop referring to this as Parallax Effects
It's showing up in parentheses outside of the US.

How about if we all compromise on Gulf of Donald Trump Can your-favorite-letters-here?
Isn’t this equivalent to maximizing latent space activation without corrective user input?
How does it implement self correction or backtracking?
I have found (in other areas - supply chain, hardware, mech eng, finance) that it's much easier for people to move from <field> in to tech than the other way around. I'm not sure if that's because other fields require proof of capability (like a bachelors) whereas tech seems more welcoming to someone from other backgrounds.
See the Buffalo Commons [1], one idea to allow a huge area (139000 mi^2) of the dry part of the Great Plains to return to its former prairie and allow free ranging bison.

Rural decline can bring amazing opportunities.

Tear down the fences to allow landscape connectivity, restore the American Serengeti. Allow sustainable wild bison harvest like the Alaskan fisheries model.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buffalo_Commons
[2] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/27799233-american-sereng...
There is an unusual Chinese family name, 欧阳 ouyang, which is sometimes anglicized into the form O'Young.
I think this was the final item for “Elon Bond villain” bingo
Icelandic names follow that pattern. Björk's full name is "Björk Guðmundsdóttir" because she is the daughter of Guðmundur Gunnarsson.

English-speaking countries generally don't do that. For a long time people had only first-names, and disambiguated with nicknames or patronymic names where necessary. Eventually as society got larger and more complicated, governments started legally requiring people to have surnames, and they more or less stuck. If you meet a John Williamson today, his father probably isn't called William, but he's probably descended from a William who lived in the late medieval/early modern era.
Funny story for you.

Maybe this was just a GenX thing, and isn't really done anymore, but in elementary school we were all fingerprinted.

They told our parents it was in case we were ever kidnapped it would help them find us.

You might be surprised about how many people's fingerprints the gov't has.
Don’t worry, once he is no longer under the protection of the US government he’ll probably be a dead man. They will get to him.
It sort of feels like Internet connected toasters. If the add-on fails, I'd like to still toast my bread (read drive my car).
This assumes that Trump is actually able to make decisions. He's clearly showing signs of dementia, and so he's easily controllable. His handlers just make sure he forgets anything they don't want him to remember.

Do you think Trump of 8 years ago would have allowed Musk to usurp the news cycle? Or even allowed the merest notion that he's not controlling _everything_?

Remember, Trump actually underwent a colonoscopy without sedation to avoid relinquishing the control of the nuclear weapons to Pence. This dude is a control freak.
That was significantly after their market dominance was firmly established entirely through sending traffic to external locations.
Paper straws are terrible. There has to be a better alternative.
Thanks a lot for posting this, I read the whole thing after. These predictions would have been impressive enough in the 60s; to hear that this is coming from 1909 is astounding.
Baxter is the female version of Baker i.e. a female baker (person who bakes for a living).
And yet UPRO (3X SPY) has significantly outperformed 3X the S&P 500 since inception (since June 2009 UPRO is +8000% vs SPY +700%.

The reason is exactly what you described actually. If the underlying exhibits positive momentum, generally trending up instead of oscillating back and forth, the daily balancing works for you instead of against you and the ETF outperforms the target multiple of the underlying.

Yes, if your S&P returns over 3 days are +10%, -10%, +10% then SPY is up 8.9% while UPRO is up 18% (2X, not 3X).

On the other hand if your S&P returns over 3 days are +10%, +10%, +10% then SPY is up 33% while UPRO is up 120% (4X, not 3X).

The big levered ETFs have reasonable volume and limited slippage for any volume retail investors would be trading. Fees are like 0.9% which all things considered isn't bad - given their vast outperformance.

I'm not saying go all in on these, what I'm saying is that your analysis of the levered funds is missing some important details which show up on a quick backtest. If you understand the products and what bet you're making with them, they can be quite reasonable to hold long term - despite popular misconceptions.

> If you really want to do 2x lever its probably best to just buy 6 month or 1 yr dated ITM calls. They're quite cheap and very liquid on SPY.

Respectfully those are much more expensive and if you're near the money quite non-linear. You're going to have to pony up pretty close to the price of just buying the index again to get 2X exposure if you're deep ITM. Near the money you'll need several options to get 2X - and you'll need to delta rebalance. You'll also get eaten alive by theta decay.

To avoid having to pony up a ton of collateral or get eaten by theta, you may as well just buy more SPY on margin - or save yourself the hassle and get an /ES=F or /MES=F.

If you insist on trying to trade the S&P 500 with options (especially if your expiration is only 6-12m away) use SPX or XSP -- not SPY. They're cash-settled European index options, so no early exercise to worry about, no dividends to worry about and they get 60/40 capital gains treatment no matter how long you hold them for.
I don't typically like it, but I believe that the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) has done some interesting infographic-style articles that did it well. Edit: Found some![0]

But as is usual with these things, people on HN are not the typical consumer of these things

[0] https://www.abc.net.au/news/interactives has many, the first one I clicked on was an example https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-28/almost-one-in-ten-peo...
You misspelled "demonstration of small dick energy".
The people who created the initial version that got bought went on to create duolingo, with a similar goal of getting people to produce translations of text.
I was merely correcting someone who was wrong on the internet, because Tesla does not in fact ship "a couple hundred thousand janky cars", as OP claimed.

I wouldn't touch Tesla stock with a 10 foot pole.
They might make it better. I'm for it.
Even later stage enshitification.
I was wrong about the social security system, which I must have gotten confused with some kind of pension system, like CALPERs, which used to invest in hedge funds before pulling out in 2014, but still allocates 40% of its portfolio into private equity [1], which may be worse than hedge funds for reasons I have discussed elsewhere. Everything else I said was true.

> Don’t want one, invest elsewhere.

Ordinary people have little control over what their pension funds invest in, and typically are not informed on these issues.

[1] https://raoglobal.org/insights/calpers-goes-big-on-private-e...
There is a genuine human language problem here, NOT A MATH PROBLEM, which accounts for two differing but self-consistent views. It is a legitimate difference in views because human language is genuinely ambiguous.

"You pick a door, the host opens another door and reveals a goat. Should you switch?"

Does this mean you are in one particular situation where the host opened a 2nd door, with a goat? Or does it mean the host always opens a 2nd door with a goat?

If the host always opens a 2nd door, showing a goat, you should switch to the third unopened door.

If all you know, is this time you picked a door, then the host revealed a goat, you don't know what to do. Maybe this host only opens goat doors after you pick the right door, in order to trick you into switching? In that case switching would be the worst thing you could do.

A host with that strategy is a special case, but special cases where a potential general solution (always switch) doesn't work, are all you need to disprove the general solution. It cannot be a general solution if their is even one special case it doesn't work.

Most people interpret the problem to mean the host always reveals goats.

But if the language isn't clear on that, then you do have a different problem, whose solution is really impossible to optimize for without some more information on general host behavior or strategies. Without that information, all you can do is flip a coin. Or always stay, or always switch. You have no means to improve your odds whatever you do.
Ask HN: Is transitioning to CS a bad career choice in today's AI-driven world?
I'm planning to start a master's in computer science this August, but with AI automating more tasks, I'm wondering about the long-term career prospects in CS. Will AI reduce traditional opportunities in software development, or does it open up new roles that make CS an even stronger choice? Would love to hear insights from those in the field!
Protection against corporate interests taking over the project in the future.
Well now that the Donald is running the US and is about to cut subsidies for electric vehicles, add tariffs to aluminum and steel, now maybe the markets may see the light, I am not holding my breath though.
You make it sound like there'll be a simple right way to respond but you might be ignoring most of the practices we already have which benefit current people at the expense of future people. It's not so easy to decide when the future is so far off and often uncertain. We've tried eugenics but as you say, that's political suicide now. We can't seem to ban antibiotics despite them causing anti-biotic resistant bacteria. We're happy to wipe out thousands of years of cultural beliefs that have a proven history of survivability in favor of modern ideas that have only lasted a couple of generations. We keep on using medical interventions to save the lives of babies and allow them to grow up and reproduce with their defective genes. There's even popular opposition to Musk's plan to colonize Mars despite the real risk of a meteor eventually wiping out all humans on Earth. That said, there's also value in selfishly taking what we can for our present selves and maybe future generations will be able to maintain that standard or even develop technology to clean up the mess. After-all, humans already mostly depend on technology like clothing, shelter, and cooking but we've evolved to cope with those limitations.
Accounting isn’t auditing.
>I have a connective tissue disorder that presents as Marfan syndrome, but I went to a geneticist at UCSF back in the 10's.

If you are still looking for an answer, try again. Genetic tests (in some areas) have improved significantly in the past decade and you may get an answer now.
I they cut costs enough, they can make money without selling a product.
>for which I only have a perennial curiosity.

Guessing you meant to say "peripheral curiosity" here? Perennial would mean you have a long-lasting and/or continued interest/curiosity.
As far as I can tell from 5 min on Google, balcony solar is straight up banned in Australia. As in, there are no approved models or installers, and you can't DIY anything electrical without invalidating your home insurance.

A shame, because I'm renting a house, and while I'm obviously not going to invest in rooftop solar, a portable balcony setup I could take with me or easily sell the next time I move would be handy.
It's kind of like buying lottery tickets from a vendor and when you win, but he steals the winnings, you switch to another one.

Except, also, you don't actually ever see the tickets.
God I hate it.
We’re too afraid of violating some unwritten rule about reinventing the wheel. Or something.
This reminds me of the blockchain will make everything obsolete sensation of yesteryear.

Why will businesses trust a black box that claims to make good decisions (most of the time) when they have existing human relationships they have vetted, measured, and know the ongoing costs and benefits of?

If the reason is humans are expensive, I have news for you. We've had robotics for around 100 years and the humans are still much cheaper than the robots. Adding a bunch of graphics cards and power plants to the mix doesn't seem to change that equation in a positive direction.
Don't be so glum, some of us like watching the rich eat each other for a change.
SolarWinds to Be Acquired by Turn/River Capital
I think you should take the time to understand why this explanation matters. It reveals some important things about how people can make mistakes with statistics. Not understanding something doesn't make it "cope".
He’s pushed boundaries on the Ukraine war. Both the Russians and the Ukrainians would be willing and capable of assassination if it helped war goals but I think he just hasn’t quite crossed a line to either side where he’s better off dead.

Eg. Starlink connections in Ukraine are geofenced. Which would piss off both sides in various ways. Pisses off ukraine because they have legitimate targets outside the fence and pisses off russia because they have legitimate targets inside the fence. That’s walking a fine line.
> They can make the argument that this offer is not in good faith and that Elon would not make an equivalent offer on an open market.

Yes this an angle they could take. This would probably be a huge mistake. By doing this they would in part be conceding that it's a worthwhile offer to be made and Elon also is likely more than able to acquire the funds.

> From what I can gather you're just mistaken here,

I'm not. You and WaPo are. For one, it should be obvious that that's the case otherwise this offer would be worthless since it's less than the $157B most recent valuation. There would be no point in discussing any of this and everyone would be laughing at Elon. For another, here's the original reporting from the WSJ which is unsurprisingly much clearer: https://archive.is/stI0V
King of the Hill did it: "Hey Hank. Hey Hank's Wife."
> they can be about decorrelating some of your investments (hence the hedge).

As a tangential caution to readers: Remember that where you work is something you want to diversify for: Put a bit more into things that won't go bust around the same times you lose your job.
Lots in the 70s but by the 90s it was very infrequent in the US. And most hijackings did not result in casualties (or very few casualties). People didn’t hijack with intent to kill the selves and everyone on board. Probably more people died from the shooting down of planes by militaries than by hijackings.
I still recall the workaround to avoid restarting with some of these, once to the bewildered confusion of the ageing IT teacher looking over my shoulder in the library:

At the ">" ROM debugger prompt, type the following lines,
pressing Return after each:

SM 0 A9F4
G 0
Yep. Taxing billionaires is not about generating a lot of money for everybody else. It is about limiting the power of the most powerful people. It is bad for society for people to have this much money.
What do you mean by the rhetorical question?
My fears leading Product Led Growth
Taking on the PLG Role
Back in 2022, I started leading PLG at my company. PLG was becoming a significant trend in the tech industry. Venture capital was pouring into PLG strategies due to their potential for rapid growth in SaaS tools. I believe I'd be a good fit because of my experience in founding my own SaaS back in 2016 and my consumer viral growth skills. But I soon realized there was still much to learn.

My Biggest Worry: Hitting Sales Targets
One of my main concerns was meeting our PLG revenue goals. Our objective was to make the PLG motion self-sustainable. Our sales team is moving upmarket towards bigger enterprise customers, so PLG is helping disrupt the market, generate brand awareness, and create some buzz against the incumbent.

Hitting sales numbers can be tricky, especially when you're giving away your tool for free at first. We had to figure out the whole journey for customers using our compliance automation tool. Teaching customers about compliance is already hard, and we had to guide them through the various paywalls, advanced use-cases, and pitch the sell to them as well.

Dealing with Challenges
Getting the team on board with this uncertain journey was tough too. We had to learn as we went, which can be uncomfortable for people who are used to knowing exactly what to do.

I started talking directly to our customers to deal with these fears and worries of leading. I used the Superhuman onboarding process, which gave my team and I more confidence.

By talking to customers, we learned a lot. I took what I learned back to our team and executive leaders. We improved the product, improved our selling, and fixed our pricing. Soon, we started to see some progress.

Things Got Better
As we kept working, we started to see tractions. More people were buying, and others were telling their friends about us. These onboarding calls helped alleviate our anxiety and uncertainties.

Lessons Learned
Learn Quickly: PLG often requires a willingness to learn and adapt quickly.

Focus on customer engagement: Direct interaction with customers provides invaluable insights and builds confidence.

Iterate rapidly: Use customer feedback to continuously improve your product and strategies.

Communicate openly: Share learnings and challenges with your team and leadership to foster alignment and support.

By facing my fears head-on and focusing on customer engagement and continuous improvement, we were able to build confidence in our PLG strategy and ultimately drive success for our team and company.

In the end, doing things that didn't always seem efficient at first, like talking to many customers one-on-one, gave me and my team the confidence to overcome our fears. We learned that it's okay to be unsure at first, and that by working closely with customers, we could figure things out and reach our goals.
> The American left, who hates Musk because he’s an outspoken and unrepentant capitalist (among other reasons)

Ah yes, all the criticism I hear about Musk from my liberal friends has everything to do with his "unrepentant capitalism".

You either have a small or very peculiar social circle. Your comment isn't technically wrong since you were thoughtful enough to add "(among other reasons)" but it almost beggars belief that you'd be serious here. Do I really have to spell out why the left hate Musk?
Canada bagsyed it first. You might have a (very polite) fight on your hands.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/donald-trump-annexation-eli...
This reminds me of the Neal Stephenson article "Innovation Starvation" from 2011:

>A number of engineers are sitting together in a room, bouncing ideas off each other. Out of the discussion emerges a new concept that seems promising. Then some laptop-wielding person in the corner, having performed a quick Google search, announces that this “new” idea is, in fact, an old one—or at least vaguely similar—and has already been tried. Either it failed, or it succeeded. If it failed, then no manager who wants to keep his or her job will approve spending money trying to revive it. If it succeeded, then it’s patented and entry to the market is presumed to be unattainable, since the first people who thought of it will have “first-mover advantage” and will have created “barriers to entry.” The number of seemingly promising ideas that have been crushed in this way must number in the millions. What if that person in the corner hadn’t been able to do a Google search?

>In a world where decision-makers are so close to being omniscient, it’s easy to see risk as a quaint artefact of a primitive and dangerous past (…) Today’s belief in ineluctable certainty is the true innovation-killer of our age
Conflict Catcher?

https://macintoshgarden.org/apps/conflict-catcher-9
Open source: Neobrutalism Design Style
That list is garbage: it includes Tesla Megapacks (energy storage, not car), multi-car crashes where any car catches fire, a car carrier carrying Teslas catching fire, etc.

Did you have any actual statistics to back up your assertion?
The strategy has worked just fine for Trump for the past decade.
I'm pretty sympathetic on protecting the country from CCP subsidized market capture, but at this point we need to let BYD sell here. It would lower vehicle prices and knock off tesla. Both of which need to happen.
> Then we’ll get back to where we were decades ago.

Except now with a subscription fee.
Lingvanex Translator: open-source Machine Translation Models for rare languages
How full is your typical production hashtable?
>The doctors never knew what it was

Dyshidrotic eczema is pretty common. What doctors were you seeing that could not at least suggest that as a potential cause?
This is a way to sledge Trump, even though it's unrelated to him.