Twitter/X is entirely a emperor has no clothes situation.

During Musk's acquisition, Twitter officially stated that around 5% of the platform was bots; Musk tried to back out of the deal because he believed the methodology used to get to that number to be bad. On one occasion he stated an estimate of 20%, but said it could be "much higher". Anyone who spends any significant time on X, post acquisition especially, is likely to agree with the "much higher" part of that.

(Remember this: Any time he's on Joe Rogan or talking to anyone who thanks him for his "service to America" by purchasing Twitter: Elon Musk did not want to buy Twitter. He realized it was a bad purchase very quickly, and tried to weasel out of it multiple times. He is a low-intellect coward who makes bad decisions, but he does surround himself with people who can clean up the repercussions of his bad decisions.)

Estimates of how many total active users (humans + bots) are on X vary wildly; Musk has said "600M monthly active" as of May 2024; but as of Oct 2024 SOAX estimated something more like 335M, with 105M in the United States [1]. Depending on what numbers you believe and what percentage you believe to be bots, this means there's anywhere between 10M-80M American Humans logging in to X on a monthly basis. The disparity between this number and the other major social networks is harrowing [2], as is the direction their user count [3] and advertiser count [4] is heading.

The xAI ambitions are also, put simply, bad decision making; which should come as no surprise given Elon Musk is not good at making decisions. AI is commoditized, and the majority of value in that space right now is being created in enterprise B2B, not B2C. xAI has no B2B plan; the combination of ChatGPT, Gemini, and Apple Intelligence rule the B2C zeitgeist, and there's literally nothing differentiating xAI to justify its high price tag. xAI has no integration with the hardware people are buying (until they start shipping it to Teslas; that's when you'll know its over for Musk); nor do they really have control over the software.

The only shred of value X has left is Elon Musk's personal connection to the President; yet he made it 3 days into the new Presidency before publicly ripping apart a major policy objective of the Trump administration; one that is well-aligned with his own business interests, because of a personal feud with Altman [5]. It seems very likely to me that Musk will self-sabotage that relationship within the first year. If the new purchasers of this debt believe they can use it to control him and leverage that relationship, they should be reminded that Tesla tried for years to get control of his Twitter shit-posting, and no one could. He cannot be controlled, and he has a demonstrated and catalogued history of engaging in public self-sabotaging behavior despite good and friendly counsel.

X's bot problem isn't only an issue for its advertisers and revenue; human, American ears listening to the things Musk posts is why the platform has value for Trump.

[1] https://soax.com/research/twitter-active-users?utm_source=ch...

[2] https://datareportal.com/social-media-users

[3] https://mashable.com/article/elon-musk-x-declining-user-base...

[4] https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/05/business/advertisers-x-withdr...

[5] https://fortune.com/2025/01/24/donald-trump-sam-altman-opena...