skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
My assumption is it's for reducing the number of things they need to configure, and therefore troubleshoot.

It's easy to say "The newest Kali release is the distro the org will use" instead of "Use whatever Linux flavor you want and here's an install script that may or may not work or break depending on your distro and/or distro's version".

Them spending time troubleshooting a setup that's out-of-spec is still time billed, so it's better for their customers for everything to roll smoothly too. They also just want to execute their job well, not spend time debugging script / build issues.
why not both? deepseek is owned by a hedge fund. if i was them id certainly have an NVDA short position. short term it’s a big opportunity for them.
I didn't read about any windfarms destroyed due to the windspeeds.

According to FT, so much energy was created because of the winds that briefly energy had to be exported to France and nuclear power generation reduced. Some windfarms in UK had to be paid to turn off otherwise there will be too much energy in the electrical grid (hence the export to France).

https://www.ft.com/content/caac56de-d357-46e5-b2c7-49738ff0f...
Why I Don't Like Hackathons
Could you send me the video if you ever end up making it? I don’t understand how jumping between nearby seeds means anything in the latent space. As far as I know it’s closer to like a hash function where the output is drastically different for small changes in the input.
Not the OP and I didn’t take psych but here’s an example syllabus for AP Psychology from the College Board: https://apcentral.collegeboard.org/media/pdf/ap-psychology-s...

The first two units on neurology and cognition seem sensible, but I can see how it’ll quickly go off the rails after that.
"AI", once we get there, is indeed the future and will continue to play an increasing role everywhere.

But what happened to Nvidia profits last year is a one time event and will get back to normal sooner or later.
Even if you're on the fence, it's worth the small investment for some fun and to support a project that's been going for a while now.
Because paywall.
What does the approach matter? OpenAI censors for civil legal reasons. Deepseek censors because of government restrictions on speech.
Weird that he's hosting the directive himself, in that it's a public document available from dni.gov.
I kept wondering why this sounds like what Jim Simons would have done! Now I know
Correcting My Model
Try that URL again :)
They only got more useful if the AI goldrush participants actually strike, well, gold. Otherwise it's not useful at all. Afaict it remains to be seen whether any of this AI stuff has actual commercial value. It's all just speculation predicated on thoughts and prayers.
It's not quite that easy since the NFC antenna extends beyond the chip.

Still doable though, as demonstrated by Bobby Fingers: https://youtu.be/NF4VJJKTjy8?t=825
Yes as you point out in #1, they failed to develop an AI product and #2 they failed to get traction in the market.

What moat does an AI startup have that will prevent them from being crushed by big tech?
Hard to say. You can get an engine to work at higher speeds than it was originally built for by enclosing it in a duct. Also you are seeing expensive and risky engine development for mainstream airliners [1] precisely because it is a mature technology where the purpose of recent developments is to optimize for the last few percent of operating cost.

The first supersonic airliner of the next generation is going to be of interest because it's the only supersonic airliner, the second one is going to have to squeeze out another 10% of fuel efficiency.

[1] https://qz.com/airbus-engine-trouble-delta-air-canada-185164...
Maybe they are the gas station
OK, oh Smart One. What do we do? I'm guessing the answer is along the lines of "There's nothing that can be done about these artificially created conditions. They just are. So please die quietly, you plebes." Correct?

You are conveniently forgetting that the plebes are subsidizing the status quo via their taxes. Corn subsidies. Chicken tax. These are not laws of nature and they can be repealed.
The first benchmark chart of LLama.cpp is effectively a memory bandwidth chart, unsurprisingly. Each of the cards except the 5090 gets almost exactly 0.1 token/s per GB/s memory bandwidth.

Mem GB/s tok/s tok/s pr GB/s
RTX 5090 1792 158.77 0.089
RTX 4090 1008 100.51 0.100
RTX 3090 936 90.88 0.097
RTX 4080S 736 77.08 0.105
RTX 4080 717 74.56 0.104
RTX 4070TiS 672 70.83 0.105
RTX 4070S 504 54.59 0.108
RTX 4070 504 54.47 0.108

The 5090 is an outlier in that it has 78% more memory bandwidth than the 4090, and "only" gets 0.09 token/s per GB/s. So it seems to start running into compute limitations.
Probably insurance against the file changing or moving or general link rot.
When your business is selling a large number of cards to giant companies you don't want them to be 20x more useful because then people will buy fewer of them to do the same amount of work
literally fighting about nothing

zero users, zero sales, jesus
The other thing is that if this pushes the envelope further on what AI models can do given a certain hardware budget, this might actually change minds. The pushback against generative AI today is that much of it is deployed in ways that are ultimately useless and annoying at best, and that in turn is because the capabilities of those models are vastly oversold (including internally in companies that ship products with them). But if a smarter model can actually e.g. reliably organize my email, that's a very different story.
Yet, ask DeepSeek what's the weather in Taiwan, it will replies that Taiwan is part of China. Ask about camps in Xinjiang, it'll say it's busy.

Generally speaking, I assume CCP is involved with anything of strategic significance. They would even chase random benign influencers.
I designed a system which was a lot like uv but written in Python and when I looked at the politics I decided not to go forward with it. (My system also had the problem that it had to be isolated from other Pythons so it would not get its environment trashed, with the ability for software developers to trash their environment I wasn't sure it was a problem that could be 100% solved. uv solved it by not being written in Python. Genius!)
This is a bit of conspiracy theory, but there's a theory that China's strategic goal isn't to have an all-encompassing Chinese OpenAI that can charge a shit ton of money. The goal is to prevent US companies from doing so.
True but that means a proprietary charger standard too.
If I remember correctly (and I could be wrong) Fitbit only ever bought the software side of Pebble (and the developers effectively), gutting the company and leaving Eric with the Hardware side of things...
You assume automation solves the problem. If it did, Facebook wouldn't be hiring close to 100,000 humans to inspect content.
Author: Applying behavior of wolves in captivity to humans was a mistake.

Also Auther: Applies behavior of wolves in free environment to a very specific and complex part of human society.

And of course, zero link or citations on anything.
This is such a great read. The only missing facet of discussion here is that there is a valuation level of NVDA such that it would tip the balance of military action by China against Taiwan. TSMC can only drive so much global value before the incentive to invade becomes irresistible. Unclear where that threshold is; if we’re being honest, could be any day.
I'll be honest, I'm not a fan of that framing. Public opinion is only loosely correlated with the reduction of suffering.

There is an asymmetry for sure, but plenty of liberals also have incorrect beliefs -- liberal and left-wing NIMBYism comes to mind. It's really important to be evidence-driven and curious, and be willing to add complexity to your models as necessary.
Oh, my memory is hazy here, but if I remember right, at the beginning Apple didn’t let them download executable code (companion js) to the app, so they just took a javascript code from every app in the pebble store, bundled it into Pebble iOS app, and updated it every few days with a fresh code.

Can anyone confirm?
This is bullshit because the tech was already old news long before the layperson's attention and money were directed to it in recent years. It's still about as crappy as it was a decade ago and the real untapped potential is the money it can make before the next AI winter.

Nobody is losing their job. The real concern should be that we're basically resorting to approximation of proper computation because Moore's law doesn't go on forever, yet we depend so much on tech to grow the economy. This is a sign of things to come. AI is to technology what building new coal plants is to energy. This has happened before and the fears aren't unfounded, just misplaced.
Sleep (and nap!) tracking precision in Pebble is still waaaay ahead of Apple Watch.

Apple Watch is packed with sensors that Pebble never had, but it can't reliably detect when I'm sleeping. It even woke me up once with a go-to-bed reminder! (only once because I turned that off immediately).

Apple's tracking naively uses my configured "Downtime" start time as a reference for when I'm "in bed". That's not a measurement, that's made up data!
Your numbers are wrong. The last quarter profit was $19B and the projected profit is 21B next quarter. That is 84B/year profit with zero growth.

If META,STARGATE,xAI,etc.. all increased spending rapidly you could get to 200B profit rate in 2026.

3T / 200B = 15

That means they could return a 6.6 dividend which is higher than 10 year bonds and is in no way overvalued by historial standards.

All that to say, I sold all my NVDA last month because I don't think Wall St. is buying that everyone is going to actually invest that much.
At this kind of workplace, yes

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42833695

It will affect the ability of that kind of workplace to deliver... anything.
AI C Compiler
I have one of this still in it's box unassembled.

I like the idea. But I've been wearing mechanical watches for about a decade now...
Ways to Create Success as a Contact Center
we told our kid to write their grandfather a thank you note for a gift and wow, they emailed him this amazing letter. My dad was really touched. But yeah we later found out it was 100% written by an LLM.
Yes, I agree with the picture you're painting here, but it befuddles me where all these grifters think they'll go?

They'll have to live in bunkers for the rest of their lives.

Imagine that you're one of them, and you want to go watch a game (or a T. Swift concert) -- so you hop on your private jet and go to the stadium/arena. If you happen to be caught on-camera and your face is up there, on the Jumbotron, every single person there is gonna boo you. That's what your life will be like. What's the point?
> I'm guessing the answer is along the lines of "There's nothing that can be done about these artificially created conditions. They just are. So please die quietly, you plebes." Correct?

No, not at all. I would suggest this administration maintain its monopoly busting stance Lina Khan demonstrated at the FTC [1], in concert with the DOJ [2]. I would suggest removing ag subsidies for operations over a certain size [3], and target subsidies towards smaller operations (not necessarily family farms, but simply more, smaller operations to optimize for competition and resiliency over efficiency and profits). I would suggest directly subsidizing production capacity increases that had to be proven and maintained to receive subsidies (government supported price floors, if needed), as well as fund increased biosecurity policy and implementation (to prevent supply shocks). I would suggest strong labor and worker protections to drive up wages much faster (versus the slower rate they are accelerating ahead of inflation currently). But, this is not policy that was voted for, or what conservatives will deliver on, so it is moot.

> You are conveniently forgetting that the plebes are subsidizing the status quo via their taxes. Corn subsidies. Chicken tax. These are not laws of nature and they can be repealed.

"The top 50 percent of all taxpayers paid 97 percent of all federal individual income taxes, while the bottom 50 percent paid the remaining 3 percent." [4] Agree laws are mutable though.

Increase and protect supply, increase wages, decrease consolidation. Solving for one is insufficient, solving for all three is required for the economic system to reach food security equilibrium at scale.

[1] https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/ftc_gov/pdf/ftc-accomplishm...

[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-17/biden-s-d... | https://archive.today/FCZaW

[3] https://greenfiscalpolicy.org/under-trump-farm-subsidies-soa...

[4] https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/federal/latest-federal-in...
> And Russia's invasion would be dead in the water without Chinese support

To paraphrase the Chinese rep on the UN. If China indeed supported Russia, then this war would have ended by now.
Note sometimes the rebound effect is not significant, eg. https://eciu.net/insights/2017/bouncebackability-is-there-st...
> AI doesn't seem to be one of those things where society as a whole will say, "we have enough of that; we don't need any more".

Really? Has anyone made a useful, commercially successful product with it yet?
I mean....

No design. Hardware & software. 2 different platforms. A new language. Zig. Unrealistic time expectations.

A senior SWE would've still tanked this, just in different ways.

Personally, I'd still consider it a valuable experiment, because the lessons learned are really valuable ones. Enjoy round 2 :)
You run native code on the Watch itself and most of the limitations are around not doing anything that will kill the small battery.
Some years into Rust firmware with no classic RTOS experience: I get the feeling that embedded async Rust is a little like an RTOS library toolkit. Why do you need an OS abstraction when you can handcraft an embedded async runtime? Component reuse?
Minor correction: GPT-4 was announced on March 14, 2023, less than two years ago. I don’t remember how much LLMs had been discussed as coding assistants before then, but it was Greg Brockman’s demonstration of using it to write code that first brought that capability to my attention:

https://www.youtube.com/live/outcGtbnMuQ?si=oTMA02ns_BJDRS4c...

Advances since then have indeed been remarkable.
This is a horrible butchering of language. You know that "policy maker" means person in everyday usage, stop being obtuse.
When the grandparent post said:

> Fact checking organizations proved themselves wildly left-biased

I think they implied that this bias also ran counter to objective reality. When someone calls out something that is objectively false, it's not usually considered bias.
Oh, I thought this was going to be something about Spolsky's old StackOverflow.com. It's just a blog about doing slack chats.
The fact that this is seemingly the top comment shows how entrenched HN’s typical user is in making money off the predatory practices articulated thoroughly in the article.
A “specification” which is based on just “the desired behavior in a few specific examples” seems to allow undesired behavior without it being clear whether said behavior is allowed by the spec.

That to me doesn’t seem like what a “specification” is.

Now, maybe having good examples is more important for business use cases than having a specification.

But I generally wouldn’t call it one.
I find that LLMs are almost comically bad at projects that have a hardware component like RaspberryPi or Pico, or Ardunio.

I think that its because often the libraries you use are niche or have a a few similar versions, the LLM really commonly hallucinated solutions and would continually suggest that library X did have that capability. I think because often in hardware projects you often hit a point where you can't do something or you need to modify a library, but the LLM tries to be "helpful" and it makes up a solution.
Meh. The public directive doesn't strike me as a big deal.

Also, I find it hard to take seriously anyone who compares company market capitalizations to country GDPs -- that makes no sense.
Stopped clock right twice a day, perhaps.
I already have 5 Pebbles and still use one of them every day.

And yes, I want more. :-D
That's a pretty terrible take.

People who can use the 585B model will use the best model they can have. What DeepSeek really did was start an AI "space race" to AGI with China, and this race is running on Nvidia GPUs.

Some hobbyists will run the smaller model, but if you could, why not use the bigger & better one?

Model distillation has been a thing for over a decade, and LLM distillation has been widespread since 2023 [1].

There is nothing new in being able to leverage a bigger model to enrich smaller models. This is what people that don't understand the AI space got out of it, but it's clearly wrong.

OpenAI has smaller models too with o1 mini and o4 mini, and phi-1 has shown that distillation could make a model 10x smaller perform as well as a much bigger model. The issue with these models is that they can't generalize as well. Bigger models will always win at first, then you can specialize them.

Deepseek also showed that Nvidia GPUs could be more memory-efficient, which catapults Nvidia even further ahead of upcoming processors like Groq or AMD.

[1] https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.02301
I mean we provided all the data that the AI was trained on, so there’s that.

What happens when all the AI models only have significant input from other AI models?
I used very similar hardware to accomplish a very similar project (Notifications on a round screen) and the LLM was great for everything except UX.
> And you know what ? In that scenario Nvidia would STILL be overvalued by historical standards !

It would makes it's PE ratio about 24 (3000/(500/4)).

AAPL's PE is about 36 at this moment.

So no, not "overvalued by historical standards".
Many people are missing this due to journalists completely missing the point when presenting these facts.

Distilled models are nothing new.
It's not just one model, though. DeepSeek is the hot story today but Qwen's QwQ also punched above its weight.
Would be nice to get it to output its guardrails/system prompt to see what specific instructions it was given regarding refusals.
What I learned is you can’t outsource expertise to an LLM, after many similar experiences to OP. Don’t ask it for advice, ask it to teach you so you can make decisions like this on your own. Preferably ground questions with excerpts from human made documents. It seems to make less mistakes when explaining things, and those mistakes are more noticeable when they do happen.
FWIW, I fed in the same problematic prompt to all the current ChatGPT models and even the legacy/mini models enumerated a bunch of pitfalls and considerations. I wonder why/how it managed to tell the author everything was perfect? A weird one-off occurrence?
Sats?
> I think they implied that this bias also ran counter to objective reality.

But did it actually?

> When someone calls out something that is objectively false, it's not usually considered bias.

I wish what you were saying were true. In reality, motivated actors will call anything that shows them wrong biased.

The whole point of having a scientific mindset is to try and ascertain what's true by building the best models one can. This often means a lot of inherent complexity, since the world is quite complex (map-territory relation). But humans prefer simpler models over more complex ones, which leads to bad outcomes.
'Hell on Earth': Who Were the Victims Killed by the Nazis in Auschwitz?
First Impressions of DeepSeek's A.I. Chatbot
Neither is Ireland. Things like this make it clear that one lives in a Tier 3 country...
Not even illegal. It’s the new not even wrong!
That is a quite good psyop since everybody only focussed on muhh censorship rather than pondering technically.
sorry I misread the thread and thought the discussion was the reverse :D
Facebook is just a website. Move on!
The biggest increase in model performance recently came from training them to do chain-of-thought properly - that is why DeepSeek is as good as it is. This requires a lot more tokens for the model to reason, though. Which means that it needs a lot more compute to do its thing even if it doesn't have a massive increase in parameter size.
Telemetry was included in what was open sourced, e.g. <https://github.com/google/pebble/blob/3b927684809fba173ee540...>

My read of that caveat from Google is that the code that was removed was third party code that Pebble had a proprietary license to use, thus it was not Google's to release.
or people do 30x more work and buy 50% more cards
It's called capitalism. Take one billion times Haiti's GDP per capita, pour it all into a few blocks in Shenzhen, and reinvest the profits.
My wife was a clerk. The judges read every line multiple times because most clerk submissions go through multiple drafts
I miss PalmOS anyone else?
I thought they were going to go full free speech. /s

Seriously, if you haven’t already, sign up for a Mastodon account. This is the motivation you need. Encourage some friends and family members to connect with you there.
I don't think a "good enough" AI is happening for a while. People will see what the new models can do and want the same. So long as improvements are rapid and visible, the demand will keep rising.
Confirms that one time, one moderator labeled it that, not that "Facebook decided" it.
I didn't know the moral panic went so far back. I'm only familiar with it starting in the 70s (at the time it was very much a 2nd tier moral panic riding the coatails of the hazards of smoking). While nobody wants more crispy children what that article isn't telling you is that there are a lot of fabric flame retardants are safe in that they haven't been proven unsafe. Fine for your couch, curtains, etc. But stuff you're gonna wear every day, IDK man. Not sure I want literally everyone to have level of exposure to chemicals for their entire life.
'Nvidia Drops 17 Percent as China's AI Model DeepSeek Sparks Tech Sell-Off'
How is this different to Llama from Meta?
Patience is a virtue :)
I would add though, that they can be very good at combining known concepts. Which can create a non-trivial set of "new knowledge".
I don't see how that follows.

Making training more effective makes every unit of compute spent on training more valuable. This should increase demand unless we've reached a point where better models are not valuable.

The openness of DeepSeek's approach also means that there will be more smaller entities engaging in training rather than a few massive entities that have more ability to set the price they pay.

Plus reasoning models substantially increase inference costs, since for each token of output you may have hundreds of tokens of reasoning.

Arguments on the point can go both ways, but I think on the balance I would expect any improvements in efficiency increase demand.
Exactly, and firing up reactors to train models just lost all its luster. Those standing before the Stargate will be bored with the whole thing by then end of the week.