skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> Jevon’s Paradox

I've now seen this referenced two dozen times today which is well up from the 0 times I've seen it over the past year.

Is there some recent article referencing it that everyone is regurgitating?
You’d be surprised by how many people don’t think that through. There are always a surprising number of people apparently just going through the motions.
Maybe not at T=0, depending on how you look at money creation. But the "extra" dollars, wherever they originate, will eventually be spent, and will eventually diffuse out to every part of the economy. We're not printing trillions of dollars, locking them in a treasure chest, and burying them deep underground so that they may never move.
Aww, I didn't think it was terrible (though I have limited experience with UI libraries).

The documentation was almost non-existent though.

What mod(s) did you work on?
Chinese innovators have mastered building knock-offs faster and cheaper.

Now they’re taking the open-source route in AI. This shift could redefine tech, AI, war, and the global economy.
I noticed this in the throwaway comment that the OP made at the end about their prior job disfavoring the use of TS.

I'm not surprised to see that type of sentiment from someone who is (at least self-described) at a more junior level, but still. Often the choice of what language/framework/tool to use on a given codebase or project is dictated or constrained by considerations other than which one is "best" in a technical sense.

Does this suck? Yeah, most of us have strongly held opinions or like to try out new shiny things. But it's a reality of working in this field and coworkers who refuse to learn it can be really hard to work with.
Isn't that approach more of a brute force than a problem solved?
Is there somewhere I could follow along with other non students?
The best way to do that is via pdf, at least if the recipient doesn't need to edit it. I still have a $20 license for office 2024 for those few edge cases :)
What DS did is in line with my expectations as I see a lot of performance optimizations possible at algorithmic level. So, even if the DS numbers are BS somebody else will tomorrow reach and even beat it.
Please please please put health tracking in it and open it up for people with chronic illnesses. There is a lot of good happening in this space for people dealing with Long Covid or CFS/MCAS
I have to wonder how much the Chinese government was aware of what DeepSeek was going to publish, and how much they will allow Chinese labs to publish in the future.
Can you easily combine it into one file? You could use PEP 723 and `uv`'s script running capability [0].

If your project is not flat, you could have a "build" step to combine everything into one file (assuming everything is simple).

`uv tool` would be great but you'd need to manage a private repo and credentials -- the "it just works" magic kinda goes away at that point.

[0] https://docs.astral.sh/uv/guides/scripts/#declaring-script-d...
Isn't that argument that after all the spending by OpenAI, an upstart derived from their investment a cheaper but similarly capable alternative? Where's the profitability in the equation coming from?

Now there's another supplier to match the (potential?) consumer or corporate demand that's diffused among more competitors, and open source.
I'd write a script that crawls all these AI topics and use an LLM to count how many times this conversation has been had but I'm too tired to do so lol. Just don't feed the troll / dumb person. If they're too stupid to see how revolutionary LLMs are by this point.. just let them be stupid. Just downvote and move on with your life
This winter, I newly have Yaktrax, after a brand I really liked seemed to go downhill (or counterfeits).
When a Canadian psychologist mentioned lobsters and hierarchies, the dogma to which members of a political group subscribe was updated to include the denial of alphas as a natural phenomenon, making it instead an artificial construct invented by their imaginary oppressors to hold onto imaginary power.
I think it will have an adverse affect to funding ecosystem.

The inevitable haircut all the funds are going to take in OpenAI and other AI startups when revenue fails to materialize[1] will herald a bust cycle and lot more circumspection in large investments like it happened few years back when a large number of Soft Bank investments did not pan out, notably most of them relied on big funding rounds to muscle out other players, not all of them have failed but all of them lost of enterprise value for investors.

---

[1] This is inevitable regardless of success of the space, either because cost of inference keeps dropping in combination with competing with high quality open weight models as DeepSeek, Stable Diffusion and others have shown. It will have strong downward pressure on pricing impacting both revenue and profit.
To continue the analogy, now everyone with a dream and a credit card can buy a shovel and have a shot.
The Constitution: Mapping the American Government [video]
I was walking down the street in San Francisco, and a guy defecated on my shoe.

I saw the look in his eyes, and any anger I had just vanished. There was nobody home.

But I make sure when my daughter visits, we never walk down that street, or any other streets that have similar inhabitants.

I can tell unpleasant stories of how the homeless have treated women, especially those who wear headscarves.

Buses now have recorded messages telling people to report “gender-based” aggression.

Since I’m male, I guess I don’t need to report someone defecating on my shoe.
An SDR's sample rate only limits its bandwidth. Most devices include a mixer, which allows the transmitted or received signal to be shifted in frequency by an amount much larger than the bandwidth.
When everyday people are telling you their opinions about what AI is gonna do you know it’s a fad.
Inference costs can't be faked though, since the model can be run locally by anyone with capable hardware.

Even if the whole story about the training cost was fake, R1 and the distilled models are still very efficient at inference.
You’d have language keywords and such, yeah.

But past that the most common words in a React project are going to be very different from a Vue project right?
It would be worth throwing imagen3/imagefx into the comparison.
> when you and your peers have similar experience and backgrounds.

Then you’ve done a shitty job building your network. No wonder you don’t see any value.

I got laid off a bit ago - after announcing I was looking, I had several C-level folks reach out with roles.

You’re hot shit on an island until the day you aren’t. shrug
> Because you and others draw parallels to left-pad and that is very far from what is actually happening in the Rust ecosystem.

Sorry, where did I mention left-pad?

The only thing I say is: writing a project in C++, I can keep control and have a few dependencies. Doing the same thing in Rust explodes almost immediately: as soon as I add one dependency, the lock file is so big I stop giving a shit.

You can say I am wrong, but I'm just sharing a feeling.
Was not aware of these resources. Thanks for sharing!
There's no redefinition here. When we refer to animals in every context, alphas are leaders. There's no "redefinition" going on here at all. What's going on is you're not able to see how alphas apply to human society. You're not able to jump the intellectual gap to identify, "hey if packs of animals have alphas, what's the human equivalent?"

I attempted to jump that gap for you, but you're not able to see it.

>But the theory TFA is about was not just that wolf packs had a leader. It made a bunch of other claims, as TFA describes, and those other parts (that you're excluding) are what's considered debunked.

And he applies that to humans without considering alphas in other animal hierarchies. He implies that the entire theoretical concept of alphas comes ONLY from wolves and once he debunks wolves (with no citations) he debunks the entire concept of what an alpha is. Riiggght.
what people are neglecting about Jevons is that fuel efficiency led to increased use of coal because you could use coal to displace more expensive fuels

i wonder what is more expensive that cheap large language models can displace? is the problem with selling unreliable B.S. really its price?
How much of this is a cage we've built for ourselves? When I made my first website in 1998 even if we had had LLMs asking one how to change the color of a button would be ludicrous because I'd change an HTML attribute (did CSS exist back then? don't remember) either in a static file or in a perl script. That's it. And the modern "throw a hundred and seven frameworks at it" stack doesn't really do anything that simple CGI CRUD app couldn't do.
You can also find the list from YC Graveyard [1]. The website collects the data from S05 batch.

[1]: https://ycgraveyard.iamwillwang.com
Just playing devil's advocate:

VCs (esp those who missed out on OAI) are heavily incentivized to root for OAI to fail, and commoditize the biggest COGs item (AI models).

This guy is just talking his book.
Large Language Model Systems CMU 11868, Spring 2024
Apple Home Hub: Apple Intelligence, HomeOS, Square iPad-Like Design
They also said that a year or two ago
https://archive.ph/YxF8B
We’ll know when it can park a car in an everyday parking spot without messing up your Grandma’s Camry I suppose.
Interesting take! I’d love to see it happen. It would bring incredible flexibility. While Android and iOS might not disappear, they’ll probably go cloud-first approach to provide more resources.

But, I see that APIs to the apps are going to go higher, just like X upping their API pricing. We cannot fully automate any kind of agents without paying them huge.
No, but there is a PDF version, ahem, floating around on Reddit.
and microsoft literally spent 80 billions on top of its, like bro imagine 80 billions dollar company is like top 0,01 percent

and that valuation would crumble because of deepseek
On top of that, y’all are great in the community. You’ve hosted my tech meetup before and I know you host others as well.
As opposed to wondering if the llm is hallucinating?

You have to expend a mental effort to think about your solutions anyway; I guess it’s pick your poison really.
At a guess, Nvidia stock prices are basically fiction at this point (are there lots of short AND long selling - IIRC butterfly spreads?).

A good fundamental analysis is probably very hard to get right, and the game is probably just guessing which way everyone else will guess the herd is going to jump.
SQL database is mutable, right? One of the biggest features of blockchain tech is that it's almost completely immutable. Something happens and it happens forever and ever.
Nvidia erases $1T in value in DeepSeek rout
"Capex expenses" are investments. And the investment is one of the two things a company may do with profits, the other is paying dividends.

Just by classifying something as capex, it's automatically classified as profit already.
I don’t understand why this is not obvious to many people: tech and stock trading are totally two different things, why on earth a tech expert is expected to know trading at all? Imagining how ridiculous it would be if a computer science graduate will also automatically get a financial degree from college even though no financial class has been taken.
blaming the wolves is an interesting choice.
I don't agree with the censorship policies in China, but I kinda understand why they'd be heavy handed in trying to keep things, uh, harmonious.

While the US was fighting its little civil war in the 1860s that killed around half a million people, some guy in China who read the Bible and convinced himself and others he was Jesus' brother started the Taiping Rebellion, which led to the deaths of about 30 million people.

Unrest in China has the potential to get really bloody, really fast.
You can do a lot of work on MLOps and get very far without knowing much about ML. In a team with a senior ML engineers you are helping them scale and build stuff.

Like say you want to generate tons of synthetic data using simulations, you are likely to be more interested in questions say of batching, encoding formats, data loading etc than the actual process of generating unbiased data sets

If you need to collect and sample data from crowd sourcing, you likely need to know less about reservoir sampling than say figure out how to do it, online so it's fast or be efficient with $$$/compute spent on implementing the solution etc.
Even if the file system does it that’s still per-file. You still need all the bookkeeping. And you’re not gonna get great compression if a lot of the files are tiny.

The tar contains a whole bunch of related files that probably compress a lot better together, and it’s only one file on disk for the file system to keep track of. It’s gonna be a lot more efficient.

When compiling you’re probably gonna touch all the source files anyway right? So if you load the zip into memory once and decompress it there it’s probably faster than loading each individual file and decompressing each of them, or just loading each individual file raw.
So you're saying we're close to AGI? Because the game doesn't stop until we get there.
Satya Nadella posted about it on Twitter.

https://x.com/satyanadella/status/1883753899255046301
Depends what problem you're trying to solve. Have we built something that can replace us completely in terms of reasoning? Not yet.

We have built something that can multiply a single persons productivity and in some constrained scenarios replace people entirely. Even if say your customer support bot is only 80% effective ( only 20% of interactions require humans to intervene ) that still means you can fire 80% of your support staff. And your bots will only get cheaper, faster, better while your humans require salary increases, hiring staff, can get sick, can't work 24/7 etc.

People so often forget that good is not the enemy of perfect.
It’s the year 2000. We have the internet, a technology that will change the world. Yahoo is the most valuable company on earth. Among the coolest things people do is go to CompUSA and pay money for a web browser, Netscape Navigator, because it supports the <blink> tag so you can make your geocities page even more awesome. Google is still operating out of a garage somewhere, and won’t be household name until after the bubble bursts.

That’s where we are in the AI journey in 2025. The year 2000.
I'm biased, but Magic Kernel Sharp does a good job for many applications. :)

https://johncostella.com/magic/
ggml: X2 speed for WASM by optimizing SIMD, written by DeekSeek-R1
What are you even talking about? Garmin has an auto start/stop feature for lap swimming. All you need to do is single press top right button once to start the session and press the same button to stop and then another button to save it. It will literally do everything else for you automatically.
This investigation was pretty underwhelming
Trump: China's DeepSeek AI should be a wake-up call for American tech companies
For the Japanese. The war was shortened. But by the time of the bomb they were doomed. They could not replace their losses like the Americans could

The Germans were beaten mostly by the Soviets. They (the Germans) were overwhelmed. And they too could not replace their losses like the Soviets could. Especially humans
Correct, you're sharing a feeling. And feelings don't matter in our line of work.

Also I wasn't aware you should be "giving a shit" about a lock file. Nor why would that matter for anything at all.

The final program works and you didn't have to reinvent complex wheels (like terminal sizing in OP). I don't see the problem. I only see wins.
Unfortunately, while the Novec family had ideal properties for immersion cooling applications (and have been fairly widely used in these applications), they are also PFAS. Many of their "advantages" relative to mineral oil fluids come from a handling perspective (e.g. no smell, no obvious residue on immersed items, not flammable), but any handling just means you're unknowingly spreading PFAS around your working area. If you have to treat (appropriately) immersion-cooled systems using Novec as containing persistent environmental contaminants, the handling "advantages" aren't so clear.
Every day people were doing that with the Internet.
Most people know Jevon’s Paradox there is just rarely an opportunity to bring it up, similar to Poe’s Law.
Yeah, that's pretty much what everyone here is talking about.
Ok.

Why would you?
Oh yeah, let's all wait till then to get the value out of models today.
They are great on the ice, but really do a number on any other surface. You have to be really good about taking them off anytime you aren't on ice.
Oh! It's "Open"AI because there's no moat! /s
I find it hard to imagine how this device could replace an iPad, which is more than capable of performing all the tasks that Home Hub can do and has the additional advantage of being able to serve other use cases. The iPad isn’t fixed to a wall and can be used in many more ways. I know you can never count a new Apple product out, but I’m bearish on this one.
The age of intelligence they say.

Yet when I read the paper I see the opposite happening. We're electing leaders that have very little of it. Not just north America either.

I wonder if AI can help there too but I think the massive job loses (if they come to pass) will trigger even more wealth transfer to the already wealthy and further increase anger in those who are disadvantaged. Leaving populist politicians a huge audience.

I think things will get worse before they'll get better.
$20 a month does not warrant NVidias 3 trillion dollar valuation though.
The Chinese have overtaken the Americans in AI now.

They overtook the Americans in electric cars last year

It looks like the future belongs to them.

Interesting times
Love this! Wish you all would be active on BlueSky. I’d totally follow you there I can’t abide the X
I hope the hedge fund shorted NVDA to make some good money along the way too hahaha!
I appreciate the downvote internet stranger - remember that I'm laughing all the way to the bank. :)
I believe they are saying we did not learn to think more deeply then, so why should we expect to learn how now.
GP commented on slope, not value, not to mention proportion.
This reminds me of a practical application of such tech that never really made it. A chap had his invention on (Australian) ABC's The New Inventors, 20 years ago, named Emergalert. It could announce the presence of nearby emergency vehicles. It seemed like such an obviously good idea.

https://web.archive.org/web/20040923155023/http://www.emerga...
What If Google publish the Gemini flash thinking post-training in December?
What if Gemini had released a technical report and disclosed the training process after replicating O1 reasoning in late December? Would the impact of today’s DeepSeek-R1 have been different?
Can't sell Linux users AI.

Inability to market directly is antithesis to Facebook and its ilk.

Linux gives users control. That is the very last thing anyone in power wants anyone else to have.
Before or after the bubble popped ?
Acknowledging the existence of hierarchies in nature is now politically incorrect. You're only allowed to believe that they're an artificial construct fabricated by a money-hungry capitalist boomer cabal to oppress you.
Not if you run it locally, obviously.
The only colloquial usage I've seen is that it is someone who has the ability to demand that others perform a public display of obedience to them. Like every time I've seen somebody unironically refer to themself as an "alpha," it's always had that underlying connotation of "Respect Me!" And every time I've seen someone mocking somebody else for being an "alpha," it's because, well, that respect was clearly undeserved.
Has anyone used it in the past ? Was it any good? I have never heard about this from anyone missing it after it was gone from the market.
When workmanship doesn't matter, than the ship is already sinking.

It has been my experience 1 code clown can poison a project with dozens of reasonably talented engineers active. i.e. clowns often go through the project smearing bad kludges over acceptable standards to appear like their commit frequency means something.

This is why most developers secretly dream of being plumbers. Good luck, =3
Yeah, GME for instance shows you can only think about it correctly in retrospect (or perhaps with perfect knowledge of all players' intentions).
for some reason, I keep thinking "hugh janus" when I see the name
Mastodon isn't in charge of moderation though, that's up to the individual instances.

Also, Mastodon is tiny, and spam is a numbers game.
Get more people into computer science. Knuth said early on in his career he thought he needed to make the computer faster or cheaper but really it was about getting more users. Anyone can program. Or try to then learn about computer science
AGI would be El Dorado in this analogy?
If I never subscribed I always report spam. It only takes very small percentages of recipients to do this for mailer services to start getting agitated about bounce rates.
Well I’m glad Apple prioritizes us over you the. I don’t care that you want it a different way. Apple forcing the end of bad practices in this instance is a win.
Apple Intelligence has barely released what they announced is coming

Deep integration into iOS won't be tacked on in a rush to market addition to OS.
The challenge with Poland, is that if there is going to be WW3 soon it looks likely to be the immediate front lines. So relatively high risk, from a business disruption perspective.
Everyday people were talking about iPhone. That was what made iPhone a fad and prevented Apple from being the company with the highest MarketCap.
why not redirect to google watches specially if the team is from goodle !
I like the idea of Rick Rolling the whole neighborhood. It'd be horribly illegal, but it would also be funny.
The amount of modules my docker hosts download from npm is anything but tiny.
Not sure if I believe it’s bearish, but the PC made computers cheaper and demand exploded, yet wasn’t very good for IBM.
Google (and other map providers) will likely just provide different names depending on IP address or geolocation information to conform to relevant legal statutes. Essentially business as usual.
I just realized, this sounds almost exactly like Japan's Fifth Generation AI project[1], where the Japan government funded a massive AI project where they built lots of specialized hardware (symbolic AI). Unfortunately, Intel kept chipping away to the point that it made more sense to just run Intel.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth_Generation_Computer_Syst...
Sure, it's backwards compatible in theory. In practice I haven't had any device that kept working reliably with zero issues through every Android update and every phone upgrade. Including very important ones like Tesla's phone key. Even Pebble wasn't flawless at the very beginning, but it got good fast and hasn't stopped working since the company went under.
iPhone was a fad. Everyone and their grandmother had an idea for some kind of app. It was all people talked about, apps apps apps.

Then the market blew up and a few big winners ate up all the profit and everyone else died on the long tail.

Today, iPhone exists, but people don’t even think about them much. They just use it.

Pestering someone now about your iPhone app idea is like pestering someone about your website idea back in 2015.