skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
If you mean Bretton Woods, that is in many ways an implementation detail. Ignoring the Great Depression (which probably _should_ be treated as a special case), and brief (~1 year) shocks after WW1 and 2, the last time the US, to take an example, saw _persistent_ deflation was the late 19th century.
The stock market is not the economy, Wall Street is not Main Street. You need to look at this more macroscopically if you want to understand this.

Basically: China tech sector just made a big splash, traders who witnessed this think other traders will sell because maybe US tech sector wasn't as hot, so they sell as other traders also think that and sell.

The fall will come to rest once stocks have fallen enough that traders stop thinking other traders will sell.

Investors holding for the long haul will see this fall as stocks going on sale and proceed to buy because they think other investors will buy.

Meanwhile in the real world, on Main Street, nothing has really changed.

Bogleheads meanwhile are just starting the day with their coffee, no damns given to the machinations of the stock market because it's Monday and there's work to be done.
Tnx for the links!
I'm not sure either is quite accurate. When you get an account you get given worldcoins on a regular basis which are basically another crypto shitcoin. They have plans to use it as a payment and app ecosystem but that hasn't really taken off. The anti spam identity thing hasn't really even started either.
P/E alone is useless anyway. A growth company is likely not making a profit as they are reinvesting. But not a profit doesn't implies good either of course.
The problem is to know where the dip is.
I have another somewhat unrelated pet peeve - when I started using Linux, the desktop was software composited, essentially what I assume was going on was that the UI was drawn by the CPU writing into the RAM which got blitted into the GPU's framebuffer, as it was done forever.

When compositors (even with X11 composite) and GPU renderers becamse fashionable, the latency became awful, literally 100s of msecs. Which was weird considering, I grew up playing DOS games that didn't have this issue. Things improved over time but it's not clear to me if we ever got back to the golden days of CPU rendering.
Buy one of many Arduino kits.
You will learn electronics, some mechanics, and more robotics aimed programing skills!
Cursor input latency is the continuous galling impediment to my satisfaction with an application or operating system.

IDE text cursor delay? Unacceptable.
Shell text cursor delay? Unacceptable.
GUI mouse cursor delay? Unacceptable.

All are immediate deal-breakers for me.
My boss' tesla model 3 died over 1 night of rather standard storm. Not first night out on the rain, quite rainy place, nothing unusual. Fully dead. At the service, they just gave him keys to new one, no detailed questions - most probably meaning its not that unusual for at least that batch.

When it runs well, colleagues with it are happy, just charging is PITA even for those with houses. When it doesn't, Tesla service is by far the worst in whole Switzerland - they don't give you spare car while they work on it unlike all other normal garages, you have to get on your own ie to work or wherever you need to go. Of course, service center here is in middle of nowhere industrial zone. Folks leaving car there aren't happy to be polite.
Human babies are born significantly premature as a compromise between our upright gait and large head-to-body ratio. A whole lot of neurological development that happens in the first couple of years is innate in humans just like in other mammals, the other mammals just develop them before being born. E.g. a foal can walk within hours of being born.

Babies are born with a fully functioning image recognition stack complete with a segmentation model, facial recognition, gaze estimator, motion tracker and more. Likewise, most of the language model is pre-trained and language acquisition is in large part a pruning process to coalesce unused phonemes, specialize general syntax rules etc. Compare with other animals that lack such a pre-trained model - no matter how much you fine-tune a dog, it's not going to recite Shakespeare. Several other subsystems come online in the first few years with or without training; one example that humans share with other great apes is universal gesture production and recognition models. You can stretch out your arm towards just about any human or chimpanzee on the planet and motion your hand towards your chest and they will understand that you want them to come over. Babies also ship with a highly sophisticated stereophonic audio source segmentation model that can easily isolate speaking voices from background noise. Even when you limit yourself to just I/O related functions, the list goes on from reflexively blinking in response to rapidly approaching objects to complicated balance sensor fusion.
PackCC – Compact PEG Parser Generator for C
I agree with Aswath Damodaran here. NVDA is priced for perfection in AI, but also whatever is next.

In addition, IMO NVDA’s margins are a gift and a curse. They look great to investors, but also mean all their customers are aggressively looking to produce their own GPUs.
But if they don't sell them, are they spending 50 billion a year on open source goodwill?
But it's "a useful thing" from Microsoft.
> I don’t understand how stupid some traders can be.

90% of traders lose money, so that's a data point...

You're trying to apply rational thinking but that's not how markets work. In the end valuations are more about narratives in the collective mind than technological merit.
Over the last 20 years, 100-200 such cables globally have been damaged annually.

This is only news now because Russia is the current bogeyman, and the claims of Russia doing it fit the propaganda.

If I were Ukraine, I'd cut such cables to encourage my Western sponsors into more action, but that narrative is a bitter pill to swallow for the Western taxpayer's funding conflict.

Still, in 50 years, we may well be reading about exactly that.
Does windpower still have a economic core in a world of hurricans?
Given the storms hitting the UK with winds up to 250 kmh, can windpower installations survive this economically - or does climate change make the approach to mitigate it economically unviable?
This is because of counter party risk with settlement. It is not hard to figure out. You just have no idea what you are talking about.
The territorial sea is 12nmi (22km) from the coast. Even where this covers the whole distance (e.g. Denmark and Sweden) foreign ships still have the right to pass through.

You are thinking of the EEZ, exclusive economic zone, but that's only the rights for fishing and mining and so on.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters
Not sure what the fuss is. I tried Deepseek earlier today for the first time and it was even worse than o1 when it came to reasoning skills and following my requests for how I wanted to engage with it.

o1 at least gives it to me straight. When I ask it to engage in more back and forth before assuming what I'm after, it tends to follow through. Deepseek seemed immediately eager to (very slowly) feed me a bunch of made up information thinking that's what I wanted.

I feel as though a lot of people get hung up on these sort of "micro benchmarks" whereas trying to get practical work done is severely under tested. I'm not a fan of openai at all but I don't have the spare compute to run anything locally so o1 suffices for now.

Still don't see how this is anything but a win for Nvidia though.
Yeah, but ships can't get to the center of the Baltic without passing through the national waters of Denmark, Finland or Estonia. Current treaties allow all ships through those waters, but if that access is abused for sabotage, maybe it's time to revisit the treaties.
And for your average backup system it's only like 1% of backups you need to be able to restore, probably much fewer. Trouble is, your won't know which ones ahead of time - same for commits.
There's paying for someones time, and then there's going above and beyond. I feel like I shouldn't have gone above and beyond
I really appreciate that, thanks so much!
I think Sweden had the intent, a few years back, to get to free electricity and export it.

I did not know Norway was looking at exporting it too
About 1% of the US workforce works for minimum wage
There was a massive disruption to banking in 2008. Governments bailed them out.
> I don’t want to stir up conspiracy theories but I do think that currently all the big AI players have a vested interest in the message that the current scaling paradigm is the right one, and that this is a supremacy issue wrt China. It drives so much investment and valuation that I doubt they can truly be objective.

500 Billion is a lot of money. Expect even crimes to be commited in order to make it happen.
I agree! I am a big fan of synchronous comms
This is an example of a recurrent phenomenon in politics. Trump comes in with big plans, this and that, threatening countries, deporting people, a clear agenda to take America to the hard right. Isolationism, crush China, screw every other country over, etc. etc.

And then - something completely unexpected, a total curveball - arrives a week into office and everything changes. Your agenda collapses and you enter reactive mode.

AI bubble could pop. Valuations drop. Crypto might get hit. Where is Project Stargate now? It might become a joke.

A more cynical observer might suggest that _the timing was no coincidence_.
yes, I told Windsurf to copy some code to another folder. And what it did? It "regenerated" the files, in the right folders. But the content was different. Great chaos Agent :D
You are assuming that the stock rose to this level "on merits" and now it falls due to "stupidness".

Maybe part of the growth was also "stupidness", and in that case buying the dip is a mistake because the "merit" price (value) is still way below.
Eliza: A Web3 Friendly AI Agent Operating System
"dig only 1 day instead of an entire month"

You answered your own question. People do not dig in the Sacramento right anymore for gold, because, it is gone. If you can train models for 1/100 the cost, and you sell model training chips, you probably are not going to sell as many chips.
It's a reflection of expectations about the future economy. Obviously, such expectations are not always accurate because humans are quite fallible when trying to predict the future. This is even more true when there is a lot of hype about a certain product.

Yesterdays price of (say) NVidia was based on the expectation that companies would need to buy N billion of USD of GPUs per year. Now Deepseek comes out and makes a point that N/10 would be enough. From there it can go two ways:

- NVidia's expected future sales drop by 90%.

- The reduced price for LLMs should allow companies to push AI into markets that were previously not cost effective. Maybe this can 10x the total available market, but since the estimated total available market was already ~everything (due to hype) that seems unlikely.

- NVidia finds another usecase for GPUs to offset the reduced demand from AI companies.

In practice, it will probably be some combination of all three. The real problems are not caused for the "shovel sellers" but for companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, who now suddenly have to compete against a competitor that can produce the same product at (apparently) a fraction of the price.
> Interestingly, the difference is very close to 1 full screen refresh. I don't know whether or not that's a coincidence.

Some sort of double buffering? To ensure it's consistently one frame, it would make sense to test on a slower computer via the same monitor.

There was some discussion on HN in 2017 regarding latency differences: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15748146

As mentioned in those comments, it could be from the compositor
Is there a 'zero-click' category?
> It's pretty amazing I can find no fault with the actual text. No grammar errors, I like the writing, it competes with the quality and engagingness of a large swath of written fiction (yikes), I wanna read the next chapter.

The lack of "gpt-isms" is really impressive IMO.
The issue here is not that DeepSeek exists as a competitor to GPT, Claude, Gemini,...

The issue is that DeepSeek have shown that you don't need that much raw computing power to run an AI, which means that companies including OpenAI may focus more on efficiency than on throwing more GPUs at the problem, which is not good news for those in the business of making GPUs. At least according to the market.
What’s the legal insurance called in German?
Not sure I understand how exactly open source plays a key role here in terms of project development.

Looking at https://github.com/deepseek-ai, those repos have a bunch of of contributors but unless I'm wrong I don't see any significant contributions. What am I missing?
The narrative is Fort Detrick was temperorily shutdown in 2019, later determined via congressional testimony because they were "cutting corners". At around the same time, from april 2019, series unusual respiratory illnesses similar to convid, later categorized as related to vaping related killed ~50, infected a few 1000s across 30+ states. PRC asserts this was origin of covid or something, and coverup by US gov (CDC/FDA linking to vapes) and thus US should open up sovereign oil for WHO investigation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAiWSk8bYg4`
Gaius Appuleius Diocles
One of Lightpanda's goals is to ease building bots.
If you only count startups that offer payments - and little else - as fintechs, then yeah, they're not displacing banks.

If you count private credit funds like Apollo Global Management, the story is very different: private credit is seriously encroaching on the balance sheets of banks. Not very tech, but very fin. In investments, ETFs and podshops are both fin and tech, and crushing it.
Reason #54298 why IBM deserves nothing.
I am getting no response on that link.
I miss Picasa, in the sense that, when it was discontinued, I still had the underlying folder structure to fall back on.
Andrej Karpathy was tweeting about DeepSeek a month (!) ago.

"DeepSeek (Chinese AI co) making it look easy today with an open weights release of a frontier-grade LLM trained on a joke of a budget (2048 GPUs for 2 months, $6M)."

https://x.com/karpathy/status/1872362712958906460
This feels a bit too far in the opposite direction to the point of hurting yourself
That analogy would be if right if a startup could dredge beach sand and pump put trillions of AI chips.

What actually happened was a better algorithm was created and people are betting against the main game in town for running said algorithm.

If someone came up with a CPU-superior AI that'd be worrying for NVidia.
the price hasn't even dropped to as low as it was last week
Is that site still actively maintained? Footer says 2005-2023.

I like the old twitter logo in the News and FAQ sections though (the actual old twitter logo, not the one just before X)
Mostly UI. That's where I get the most value, because I don't have much experience so I get things bootstrapped and also learn. Sometimes I also use that for writing code (usually in Python) that I could have easily written myself, and can therefore review easily, but it's fun to watch and can be a bit faster.
The Rise of DeepSeek: What the Headlines Miss
If this is gambling, what isn’t gambling? Sometimes things just don’t go the way you want.

A Chinese company coming up with a cheaper alternative to a cutting-edge technology out of nowhere, is an outcome that is hard to predict.

In hindsight, betting on Nvidia maintaining its monopoly on a resource crucial for such an important technology as AI, might not be the best of ideas, but then again, who knows.
>If they then also understood that 90% - 95% of the population effectively has natural immunity, they would seriously question the ethics of vaccination.

Your premise is flawed as this is a misinterpretation of what the data actually states. The statistic refers to the fact that most infections do not cause active disease. This is not the same as having "immunity." Rather, it indicates that the immune system in most individuals can contain the bacteria without eradicating it, resulting in a latent infection. Latent TB can become active under certain conditions, such as immunosuppression or aging.

Vaccination does not reduce natural immunity but aims to prevent the most severe manifestations of TB which can be fatal.

Your wider point re: the ethical argument against vaccination presumes that exposing populations to preventable diseases is acceptable to preserve a theoretical "natural immunity." However, ethics in public health prioritize the reduction of preventable harm. Sacrificing lives and health for a purist notion of "natural selection" disregards the suffering of individuals and the societal costs of disease.

If anything, the ethical failure lies in allowing preventable diseases to cause harm when safe, effective interventions exist. Future generations will inherit a world shaped by the decisions we make today. A world with widespread vaccination is one where fewer children die, fewer families suffer, and societies thrive.
Nice. While I prefer a combination of these tools

fzf
zoxide
fd

Small helpers are always good to have. Thanks for sharing
People flag stuff.
Because the only time I can be confident in the answers it gives me, is when I already knew the answer before asking, which makes using the LLM pointless. Anything else would require me to do research to fact check it anyway. Might as well skip the LLM and do the research directly.

This is what a lot of people forget about LLMs, if you didn't already know what the answer should be, then you won't know when it's giving you crappy responses. And if you do know what you are talking about and actually do catch it giving wrong information (or think you did), it'll just say "whoops.... you're right!". Sometimes, even if you aren't.

The only things I can feel confident asking an LLM is stuff that I already know.
DeepSeek Buzz Puts Tech Stocks on Track for $1.2T Drop
Everything above the street level and physical economy is becoming gambling.

There has always been a component of gambling to all investing, but that component now seems to utterly eclipse everything else. Merit doesn’t even register. Fundamentals don’t register.
Okay, but are you speculating that we will all switch to many native languages instead? That seems unlikely. The lingua franca may change, but nothing suggests it will not be English within the educational timeframe of any child born today.
It probably makes economic sense considering the marketing.
This doesn't have anything to do with DS, despite what the media claims, it comes to a heightened sense of fear people have with playing with fire.
R1 is double the size of o1. By that logic, shouldn’t o1 have been even cheaper to train?
Is that stat accounting for those working in the dark market (ie without proper documentation)
I think you should change the Windows install section in the readme. Instead of installing uv by downloading and running a Powershell script you can use winget:

winget install --id=astral-sh.uv -e

https://docs.astral.sh/uv/getting-started/installation/#wing...
Which Desktop environment are you looking at? The "UI kit" is different on different platforms (the idea is to use native widgets)

If you mean the fact that it's not ribbony, with a lot of unused empty space between widgets and with mobile-phone-like aesthetic - the rejection of that style is intentional. Microsoft went that way, and hurt usability; LibreOffice has not. Although some argue emphatically that it's the way to go in order to attract new users.

For those who like a more ribbon'y UI style - it's available as an option. On the menu, choose "View > User Interface..." TBH, that's not fully-developed and I don't like it much.

One other aspect of modernization is that there is a dark mode, which has improved a lot over the past couple of years:
https://itsfoss.com/libreoffice-dark-mode/

but if you have specific suggestions/rants - UI/UX discussions are always ongoing, albeit slowly given the immense size of the project and the amount of dialogs and UI/UX aspects to be considered and improved. Try the "LibreOffice Design" channel on Telegram for example.
So much S's a nice tongue twister

Seeing Sweden seize suspected sea sabotage ships.
A new car usually has a service/maintenance plan that might be 3 years or so, so it makes sense to only mandate inspections once that does not happen anymore.
hodl?
There's a difference where you use this.

Learning language - fine, use whatever language you want

Excel - spreadsheet logic breaking when you open it with a different locale - horrible
Right now it seems like DeepSeek should splurge on some more GPUs from NVidia because all my requests are timing out.
Imperial Presidency
It seems there is 0 regulation on DeepSeek from the chinese gov, namely this LLM can bad mouth about chinese gov...

That would mean this AI has 0 restraint on training... unlike the US LLMs... which would probably be mechanically worse.
> It cost at the very least the salary of a software engineer, though most likely a lot more. Autodesk is not some passion project of a group of volunteers who just want to keep it up.

It's not a passion project, and that's why I find it very unlikely that they are not using some off-the-shelf forum software. I doubt Autodesk would be paying anything near a full software engineer salary for anyone working on the forum. Of course there will be some developer integrating the forum with the rest of their website, but that is hardly a full-time job. Moderation is probably also not done by engineers but by support staff that doesn't receive a salary at the level of an engineer.
https://archive.ph/Pvwiv
I beat your Jevons paradox and raise you the Theory of Constraints..
> - Better Linux drivers than AMD

Unless something radically changed in the last couple years, I am not sure where you got this from? (I am specifically talking about GPUs for computer usage rather than training/inference)
So a quant company releases a model and that causes stocks of an overvalued company to go down drastically?

Maybe this was the point of creating this model all along ?
> ”Always keep interviewing”

This seems as exhausting as working more than 40 hours a week routinely. I would rather keep a financial reserve to cover the time to get a new job.
It is a demonstration that progress is no longer due to llm scaling.
I think it is more expectation about expectation. You buy/sell based on whether you expect other people to expect earn or lose. It is self-referential, hence irrational. If a new play enters and peoples expectations shift, that affects your expectation of value even though the companies involved are not immediately or directly affects.
I've found the openRA fork/mod, Romanovs-Vengeance, to be a decent RA2 implementation.
There seems to be active development on the project.

https://github.com/MustaphaTR/Romanovs-Vengeance
You can ban the company but are you going to ban any US company from using the open model and running it on their own hardware [1]?

The cat is out of the bag and there is no going back.

[1] https://apxml.com/posts/gpu-requirements-deepseek-r1
Doesn't this situation also imply to some degree that China is focused on beating the US on AI and probably they will develop a competitor to NVIDIA that will cause margins to drop significantly?

They have a lot of very smart people and the will to do it, seems like a matter of time before they succeed.
You can buy the dip if you want, as long as you're aware that you're not betting that "stupid" traders are undervaluing NVIDIA's fundamentals. Rather, you're betting that "stupid" traders will again rally NVIDIA's share price significantly above this dip, and you will be a smart trader who will know when to sell what you bought. Good luck.
What Is China's DeepSeek and Why Is It Freaking Out the AI World