skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
While everything you say may be true, this shows a fundamental misunderstanding about how the modern stock market functions. How much value a company creates is at best tangential and often completely orthogonal to how much the stock is worth. The stock market has always been a Keynesian beauty contest, but in the past few decades, strongly shaped and morphed by attention economies. A good example of this is DJT, a company which functionally doesn't do much anything, but in the last year has traded at wildly differing prices. P/E, EBITDA, etc, are all useless metrics in trying to explain this phenomenon.

In other words, NVIDIA is in the red not because the company is suddenly doing worse, but because traders think other traders think it will trade down. That is a self fulfilling prophecy, but only so long as there is sufficient attention to drive that. The same works the other way around as well, so long as there is sufficient attention to drive the AI hype train upwards, related stocks will do well as well.
What do you think is going on here? Why is it dropping?
The parallels with the dotcom bubble are clear... Tech is magical. Tech becomes cheap/free. Stock holders panic.

For some time it's been clear that there's an AI bubble and this may be what finally pops it.
To be fair this wayland issue is also niche. Author of the linked article wrote that this is reported by really small percentage of users most of the people do not notice it.
There's also EFL and one other I'm forgetting at the moment, but yeah.
I read somewhere that 1 in 20 job postings is fake.

So you just explain to the fake job interviewer that you're the 1 in 20 fake job candidate.

There's a 5% chance they'll understand.
Everyone is amazed by the benchmarks, but I've yet to encounter journalists that cover how much R1 and V3 are propaganda machines.

They deny the tiananmen massacre, the abuses on uyghurs, and defend the CCP. LLMs are replacing Google and becoming the source of truth for an entire generation. This is extremly dangerous and medias have the duty to cover that.
> The Washington Post cited anonymous US intelligence officials

That sounds like a reliable source from a reputable publication. /s
Once is an accident. Twice is carelessness. Three times is enemy
action. What are we up to now? 4 or 5 in as many months?
The EU also has put pressure on Banks for decades now to either "innovate" or "get innovated" by regulations forcing them to implement innovative ideas not coming from them.

With both having happened over time.

They also at least somewhat try to compete with Paypal on online payment on EU specific shops (not they they have much success, not just because of network effect but because a combination of their products being sub-par and them realizing that various other even less competitive/ux friendly competitors would make them more money if anyone would just be using it..., so they are in the process to "get innovated" again by forcing impl. of certain ideas related to person-to-person money transfer which have proven to work/being useful in a few countries where they/their banks did adapt them years ago.)
Doesn’t support custom domains
UK QRA forces have to deal with a lot of Russian aircraft, e.g. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/raf-jets-intercept-21-rus... (2023)
Meta should actually go up from this. If deep seek is perfect they don't need to pay for an expensive Llama team. And even if deep seek isn't perfect, the low cost training strategies they've invented could be used by Meta to reduce the cost of Llama training.

Although Meta develops models they don't sell them. So a world where foundation models are free is fine for them.
Banning wouldn't work imo - now that the cat's out of the bag, with the architecture being open source, anyone can replicate their results to a compete with them for a relatively small investment.
Wow, literally bought more Nvidia shares last week. Just goes to show the stock market is 80% gambling. Me believing in the value of a company is overshadowed by the hype of growth and "future valuation".
> selling a stock because the product the company produces is now even more effective is mind bogglingly stupid.

No it isn't. Investors are most likely expecting there will be less demand for Nvidia's product long-term due to these alleged increased training efficiencies.
Really? It's an export industry for Norway, selling electricity to other countries.
based on meta declarations , amd is better at customized inference than nvda ,

meta uses amd mi300x for all inference and which bought 173.000 gpu ( 40% of their total gpu count ) according to that report
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/06/meta-and-microsoft-to-buy-am...
Why? The compute requirements would still continue to grow the more efficient and more capable the models become.

If it’s cheaper to inference you end up using the model for more task, it it’s cheaper to train you train more than models. And if you now need only 1000’s of GPUs instead of 10’s or 100’s of thousands you’ve just unlocked a massive client base of those who can afford to invest high six to low seven figures instead of 100’s of millions or billions into to try their luck.
It doesn't matter whose model is better. AI is here and it won't go anywhere. As a result companies that feed AI will see better valuations
5+ years "consulting" would probably be reclassified as employment by most courts.
Yeah the system doesn't work. Nothing has convinced me more of that fact than living in Germany has. If your system only works for a single generation in which you have an unusually large working population and relatively few children and relatively few old people, then your system doesn't work. The German system never worked, it was always just running on borrowed time.
Agree. Apple should be as well. The only con I can think of would be their (Meta's) data center investments but seems this will make them more efficient?
The first perfect computer
Yes, it's going to benefit all the other areas of research like medical and meteorology, which I'm happy with.
Nice, but on the expensive side. I use a bluetooth blackberry keyboard with my xreal. It works very well after a bit of practice.
Doesnt that say they based it on llama?, sooooo not really a bottoms up training - since the cost of llama is 100% surely not part of their quote.
>In other words, NVIDIA is in the red not because the company is suddenly doing worse, but because traders think other traders think it will trade down.

Well put. People need to unterstand that some stocks are basically one giant casino poker table. There was a comment with a link here that a lot of Nvidia buyers don't even know what products Nvidia is making and they don't care, they just want to buy low and sell high. Insert old famous comment abut shoe shine boy giving investment advice to Wall Street stock traders.
This is not exactly right, they said they spent $6M on training V3, there aren't numbers out there related to the training of R1, I can feel it will be cheaper than o1, but it's hard to tell how much cheaper. I can guess that overall deepseek spent way less than openai to release the model, because I have the feeling that the R&D part was cheaper too, but we don't have the numbers yet. Anyway, we can assume that deepseek and Alibaba will try to get the most out of their current GPUs however.
this, absolutely irrelevant to deepseek
I think it's because the media coverage is all focused on how this means the big AI players have lost their competitive advantage, rather than the other side of the equation.

But that's also dumb, because "huge leap forward in training efficiency" is not exactly bad news for the major players in even the medium term. Short term, it means their models are less competitive, but I don't see any reason that they can't leverage e.g. these new mixed precision training techniques on their giant GPU farms and train something even bigger and smarter.

There seems to be this weird baked in assumption that AI is at a permanent (or at least semi-permanent) plateau, and that open source models catching up is the end of the game. But this is an arms race, and we're nowhere near the finish line.
Most likely these were introduced in the code maliciously, then leaked to the teams to get the money....
The guy who did it being Ukrainian in no way indicates Ukraine did it (as opposed to Russia).

There's plenty of Ukrainians to choose from in Russia.
It’s probably less partisan than that, just a realization that ignoring Russia’s misbehavior will not make them stop, and appeasement doesn’t help. And Europe doesn’t need the nat gas any more, and the Baltic is now a NATO lake. The geopolitics has finally aligned for Europe to be more forceful, even as the US is pulling away.
I find it interesting because the DeepSeek stuff, while very cool, doesn't seem invalidate that more compute wouldn't translate to even _higher_ capabilities?

It's amazing what they did with a limited budget, but instead of the takeaway being "we don't need that much compute to achieve X", it could also be, "These new results show that we can achieve even 1000*X with our currently planned compute buildout"

But perhaps the idea is more like: "We already have more AI capabilities than we know how to integrate into the economy for the time being" and if that's the hypothesis, then the availability of something this cheap would change the equation somewhat and possibly justify investing less money in more compute.
> American companies are private sector only and have a business model that's to benefit a company, not a nation.

How can you believe that when copyright laws only applied when regular people pirate but not when big tech uses pirates content to it train their AI? Also it's known that Pentagon funded many tech companies during cold war https://qz.com/the-pentagon-is-spending-billions-on-big-tech... . Is this not government funding?
Put more simply: The stock market is not a reflection of the economy. Wall Street is not Main Street.
I always think back to the Iraq war and "WMD" intelligence that was used to justify two decades of expensive disaster. Publicly released intelligence statements are always at risk of being political. Heck, so are the internal ones; it's always risky putting out a report your boss doesn't like, even if it's true and important and done in the relative safety of being classified.

Some European countries are very aware of the Russian threat. Germany is very much dragging behind on this, possibly due to Russian money.

(also thinking of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plame_affair - US "burned" the cover of one of their own spies as retribution for making a politically unacceptable statement)
Exactly this. This does not affect Meta as many people believe.

The startups that are in trouble are the ones that have been screaming for "AGI" and buying up GPUs and close-sourcing their models.

Open source was always going to win the race to the bottom. [0]

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41671582
Here’s another example: would you start building a house today knowing the price of every input material might jump 20% to 200%?
> but employment being the trapdoor function that it is in some jurisdictions does muddy the water.

Absolutely, I should have clarified, this was in Denmark. Laying off someone is pretty easy, unless they happen to be pregnant, a union representative or work-place-safety representative.

And I should know, I was laid off from a job after two months because they decided that they didn't have the budget anyway.
Why do you need a phone call? I just had to take some pictures and fill in some details on their app, and a day later I had the mortgage to my home.
If acts of war were criminal under national legislation then soldiers conducting them would be criminals, and you'd be able to stick them in ordinary prison.

This is not in accordance with the Geneva convention. A legitimate war operation during an international conflict is legal.
I understand that part, hence why this is very much buy the dip for me.
Aren’t Hangul consonants joined with vowels to create syllabic blocks? Is that still an alphabet? It seems different to the distinct characters for letters and vowels that the Latin alphabet, for example, has.
Yours is the correct take, it isn't about who did it, it was that it was done at all.

This shows how effective open source and open development can be.

Best way to get a correct answer is ... https://www.phind.com/search?cache=ws3qq1xl8hj4yx1izd5oeda0
the holy grail is to not have a separate train and inference steps. when the model can be updated while it is inferencing is where we're headed. deepseek only accelerates the need for more compute, not less
It looks like a well built mini keyboard, but I was not expecting the price tag exceeding $200.
Playing devil's advocate: Firing people has a huge financial impact - around $100,000 per person per year. The event only cost $50,000 once. So it might not be that significant, and at least the staff gets to enjoy a nice event. Why eliminate both when the event's cost is equivalent to just half a position?
Good time to buy is % of income via tax efficient methods into the in SP500 for most.

But I agree in the sense that Deepseek just creates more demand. Because people desire to get AI to do more work. This makes bang for buck greater opening new opportunities.

This sell off is like selling Intel in 2010 because of a new C compiler.
I suggest Mylio: it ticks all the things you required, except possibly of `multiple files as part of the same "image"`.

It will store everything locally, keep your folder structure, every metadata is inside a sidecar XML, allows for various notions of "date" and more.

Not affiliated with them, just a happy user
DeepSeek is only partial to this. DeepSeek might be the trigger, but the core reasons are the overvaluations.
An interesting aside to this is the MIS BAIR study in Melbourne, which is looking at whether the BCG vaccine reduces the incidence of food allergies, eczema and asthma. https://www.mcri.edu.au/research/projects/misbair
This has nothing to do with the concept of "rule of law". This is simply about how the law is applied and appealed. If anything, the rule of law should protect against these miscarriages of justice, because the law should be applied equally to everybody, and therefore the poor should have the same access to the processes of appeal as the rich and powerful.
Why you think it's stolen when company paid for your time? If the app wasn't successful, would you have considered refunding your salary back to a company?
I stuck things out as long as I could reasonably get off with at my last job past which there would have been "difficult conversations" for a variety of reasons (COVID factored in too)--but that was around the time I had decided I was going to semi-retire anyway. Actually, stayed a bit longer than planned. I still do some analyst work.
Have Fastmail moved their servers outside the US?
In this case a consulting company was hired, so these where employees, just with a different company. They just opted to station the same people at the same client for all those years.
Not if the current architecture plateaus around the level of O1/3.5/R1. Then any further training is useless and inference is relatively cheap.
The general plan is to prepare for 2030, which always has been my yearly preparation. [0]

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42563239
I saw the interview with Dario Amodei. Look at 0:48

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7LNyUbii0zw

He seems adamant that there are no diminishing returns to scaling AI.

I don’t want to stir up conspiracy theories but I do think that currently all the big AI players have a vested interest in the message that the current scaling paradigm is the right one, and that this is a supremacy issue wrt China. It drives so much investment and valuation that I doubt they can truly be objective.
Maybe society is submitted to a law of averages..
Not sure if its as hot as it looks. Valuation of those private AIs is stupid.
This looks like Chinese propaganda. Say we dont need that hardware, but it looks like they need it.
https://wccftech.com/chinese-ai-lab-deepseek-has-50000-nvidi...
The national waters are a few hundred nautical miles wide, they do not cover all of the sea. I guess international waters is where the incidents happen.
I just started a new job in Hamburg, Germany, same location as the author, and one nice thing they have here is an extremely negative view on overtime, making it very encouraged to remain within hours
They have a lot of H100: https://www.reddit.com/r/NVDA_Stock/comments/1iadc0s/evidenc...
The purpose of the scanning is so you are limited to one account per human rather than being able to open loads. It's not used as ID after the account is open.
One paid for by the inhabitants through higher electricity prices, so not exactly like other goods.
There are already some (limited) reproductions that suggest they're not completely lying (ie that there are indeed perf benefits).
I will never forget HN's not-made-in-the-US bias https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42514633
Embarrassment at discussions of bugs from 2007 that are still not fixed.

(For clarification, I doubt that is really the (main) reason, but longstanding bugs in CAD systems are definitely a thing, and I guarantee there are bugs that old in Inventor (and its main competitor Solidworks), and probably older still ones in AutoCAD).
On a global markets, there always will be huge corporations, and nowadays they usually grow huge because they provide some useful or at least highly sought-after services. And their owners are certain to become rich.

You can drive them out of your particular tax domicile, but you won't squash them globally, and the result will be that you will be dependent on them anyway. As Europeans, we have to deal with Musk from a position of weakness. European Musk would be easier to control than American one, but hey, we did our best to redirect all the future Musks, European or South African, to the US...

"I literally cannot start a company here in the US because even my engineering salary is not enough to bootstrap a company without licking VC boots."

You have to realize that a lot depends on your level of ambition. You can start a small local company anytime, tech or non-tech, plenty of people do that every day, but your market reach will be naturally limited to one city or so.

But if you want to start a globally relevant technological startup, hey, that was NEVER in the power of a random median engineer. At least you now have options, including those VCs. There aren't any such options in other places.
Wall St is not Main St even if they price it perfectly.
I'm sorry that happened to you. My own experience with burnout was pretty damning, but oddly, that happened with a career that was far more aligned with who I really am than my current career. There was a click, for me, that made me realize I cannot define myself by what I do for a paycheck and since then, my current career rarely comes up in IRL conversation, contrary to my HN history (which has more to do with my job being tech-related, so it fits in the context of HN comments).

But you touched on something that I struggled with for years; a sense of belonging. Humans are, by nature, fairly tribal. That's both a good and bad thing. However, we as individuals have to be mindful about how much we are acting on our sense of belonging. At the extreme end, when we let our desire to belong to something larger than ourselves call the shots, we tend to get radicalized or fall into religious zealotry. On a more day-to-day experience, our sense of belonging can drive us to seek external validation from people who simply will not offer it, which spawns things like discontent and resentment that cause more irrational behavior and damage your self-worth. It's a slippery slope.

What I have found is that being mindful about self-validation helps mitigate that. Reminding myself that I am good enough despite my flaws, I was not born to toil/be busy/make someone else rich, and my experiences and perspectives are valuable to me have become tools that help me make decisions about work/tasks that strategically avoid burnout. I never offer too much, and I know my limits very well, at this point. The result is most people see and respect that about me, where the ones that do not will quickly lose interest and move on to find someone they can successfully abuse.
> If a company decides to lay off, for instance, 40 employees, German law doesn’t prevent this. Instead, the law enforces a social scoring system to determine who is affected, prioritizing the protection of the most vulnerable employees, such as those with children. In this sense, when it comes to layoffs, the difference between Germany and the US is minimal.

From what I have seen in the past, the set of people with children and a mortgage can be difficult. Some really do not want to be there, but stay for job security.

I'm also not entirely sold on prioritising those lay-offs based on social elements, such as children. I can see incentives being good to have more children in a society, but you shouldn't be punished for not having them. Ultimately from the company's perspective, you want to maximise your company's future success.

I would amend some points:

> Stick to your contract hours.

Do additional hours where required and you are able, but make sure they are visible, and compensate yourself them back. It increases your perceived value.

> Avoid going above and beyond with initiatives.

For your own sake, take pride in your work. Don't become stale.

> Always keep interviewing.

Many stop doing this because it's a pain and stressful. I think it is enough to keep your toes in, try to figure out what salaries are being offered, what kinds of jobs are available and how desirable you are. Try to learn those things with as minimal effort from yourself as possible.
> The author gives no evidence to back up on this claim.

How can one provide evidence that something is not being displayed on a website? Isn't this, like, a formal fallacy, or something?

> We've been hearing all week from readers who say they can no longer post about Linux on Facebook or share links to DistroWatch. Some people have reported their accounts have been locked or limited for posting about Linux.
Can vouch for cotypist - it's great!
What does Apple have to do with AI
maybe Nvidia is fine but I don't understand this logic. suppose it turns out GPUs are unnecessary at all, but they still provide a performance boost, but you can do everything you can do right now with CPUs w.r.t performance. would that be good or bad for Nvidia?

unless it can be said we need more performance than is currently possible, e.g. new demand, it would be catastrophic. it is unclear that throwing more compute actually expands what is possible. if that is not the case, efficiency is bad for nvidia because it simply results in less demand.
Was going to say it's mostly been great for me. At least until recently trying to try out deepseek r1 it's not been great. I can't tell if it's the router or the provider..
I went for some Asian index funds to balance things out for this reason.
Important detail is that Ukraine is not at war with Germany. Countries very much can and do arrest the soldiers of other countries when they're found committing criminal acts. Neutral countries also traditionally intern soldiers of belligerents who are found trying to bring the war into neutral territory.

e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_the_Rainbow_Warrior ; two French spies were jailed by New Zealand.
This is definitely making me rethink my choices. I've been eyeing the Model 3, but a 23% failure rate during inspections is really alarming. It's not just a minor issue if the car has three times more problems than other electric vehicles.

The fact that the same problems are found in German inspections, it seems to confirm that it is not just a local issue. I will definitely start looking at other brands with similar models.