skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
It’s amazing how confident all of the recent 20 year olds with “AI” companies are.

I’ve got to meet a bunch of founders of chatGPT wrapper companies from recent YC batches and other startups that raised a ton of money from top firms and the way they prognosticate compared to all the people I know who built real successful ML products in the past is insane.

Most of them have “AI expert” in their LinkedIn bios but have not trained a single model, their companies amount to a nodejs app with a few chained prompts and 0 data nor evals to speak of.

One of these guys just confidently opened up a conversation with me with something along the lines of “once we reach ASI, our accounting agent company will be one of the largest businesses in the world”, as in their ChatGPT wrapper will be useful when OpenAI releases a model that’s smarter than all humans.

EDIT: this is not meant to be a knock on Luka, who from what I can see seems like a brilliant guy who will probably have an amazing career.

Same goes for the recent young “AI” startup founders, most of whom are also really talented. Cheers to them for doing the right thing by going after the big new opportunities in the market enabled by LLMs.

Just maybe take it easy on the grand proclamations and crypto bro style hype.
It's sad how jaded hn can sometimes be. I love the idea and I think there are so many ways it could be useful.
> who gets to decide what is or isn’t propaganda if we gonna ban it?

in a representative republic that would ideally be the elected representatives
Can you point to any specific cases? You are being very vague and seem to rely on anecdotal evidence.
Could a Patreon or Medium or Subspace page work for this? Announcements, mailing list, even a payment system for beer money
When AMD passed Intel, they hadn't even decided to use TSMC at all yet. Of course now Intel is behind in leveraging TSMC technology. They started late.
executable (a.out) is an interesting choice —I'd guess it's x86, and probably not really a.out but a more modern exe format— but are there any relevant docs?
i'm surprised that more gig work delivery folks haven't tried to 'go independent' and become a new sort of personal assistant: select a handful of good clients and get them pay a retainer for you to drive around doing their busywork all day.

for the driver, consistent pay and the ability to weed out bad clients.
for the client, you'd get a trustworthy assistant that should be able to take on a wider range of things that a single app wouldn't do. it may not be as fast as an on-demand delivery apps, but for most things that doesn't really matter.
I don't think the conclusion of this article is controversial if you accept the premise: If a horizontal AI model is able to serve as a "drop-in remote worker" and all you need to do to get it going is give it access to a computer and some software, then of course vertical AI applications are going to have a hard time.

I read "drop-in remote worker" as AGI. You can give it any task and it performs at-or-exceeding human level. The real question to me then becomes the implications for the rest of the economy, not simply a question of what happens to vertical AI companies.

So many B2B tech companies exist to make the work and organization of humans easier. Is Github still as valuable if the vast majority of code is written and reviewed by AI? What about Slack, Linear, or Salesforce? And that's just starting with tech.

If there are relatively few humans in the white-collar workforce, then we are talking about nothing short of a complete remake of the economy.

In my opinion, the article spills a lot of ink trying to prove something that to me feels obvious (given that you accept the premise that one day soon we will have AGI) and very little exploring implications beyond this narrow perspective. Perhaps that is coming in future chapters.
I mean this is the same exact thing that happened when calculators where invented. The amount of people who can count in their heads drastically dropped because why waste your time? Ditto for when maps app came out. No more need to memorize a bunch of locations because you can just use maps to take you there.
> Wasn't ASML started based on research funded by the US?

No. ASML started as a spinoff of ASMI and Philips in 1984. It became hugely successful and effectively a global monopoly in chip production before any of its EUV products shipped.

Also, taxpayer money funds lots of research everywhere, and this is then used by companies to make money. Most of that research is public, done at universities. That the US chose to stick an "ours!!" label on some of it doesn't really make that research more special than other taxpayer funded research, in moral terms.
Moore's Law may be coming to an end. What happens to AI progress if it does? (2023)
Curious why you would be responding on an old post. Are you an alt account?

Your comment doesn't contradict what I said.
Speaks nothing against this - though give it some time to leave the alpha phase. Hosting is super easy using Docker and e.g. Coolify as PaaS right now.
Or use the same telescope by taking images 6 months apart so the earth is in opposite position in its orbit
I received two downvotes for this comment, presumably because of the ChatGPT mention and the "weird" recommendation that triggered this knee-jerk anti-hype reaction.

https://gourmantissimes.com/creme-anglaise-sous-vide-inratab...

https://www.milord-sous-vide.com/categorie/cuisson-sous-vide...

GP could have asked how to guarantee an even sugar density when the sugar content of the fruits is unknown/subject to variation, and I would have replied: "ChatGPT recommends using a refractometer or an areometer". Pretty sure I'd have received the same reaction, even though this is the very first subject Escoffier talks about in his well-known Culinary Guide:

https://gallica.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/bpt6k65768837/f753.item

https://www.deco-relief.fr/fr/accueil/1518-refractometre-suc...
Joint speech and text machine translation for up to 100 languages – Nature
Prisons give you the control needed, but prisons generally are not realistic to how people could live their lives. When you are locked in a cell most of the day that limits movement (in ways different from an office where people get up to go to meetings and the like). Prisons will get you your 20 minutes a day of exercise, but it isn't representative of how most people will exercise (even counting only those who go to the gym). As such you can get a lot of data but it is unknown which data applies to normal people who live lives in ways that are likely different in ways that matter.
Typically such things are bootstrapped not by a wealthy user base but by a talented user base who write the code and set up the organization themselves.

However, if you do need some money for boostrapping, there are likely unions out there that would be willing to grant/lend the sums needed, which should be five figures.

Taking VC money would be counter-productive, making you beholden to conflicting interests.

P.S. The motivation for setting something like this up doesn't necessarily need to be purely selfless. It's not going to make you a billionaire, but if successful a non-profit or co-op you set up to do this can pay you a six figure salary for a job that has significant meaningfulness and significant agency (aka control over your own work). And by being a non-profit or co-op the lack of conflict of interest should make it more likely to be successful.
In my area we have FB marketplace. People have been doing grocery shopping, delivery, etc for a long time. Heck there's a whole underground restaurant system as well.
> I don't want everywhere in the country built over, which seems to be something here everyone wants for some bonkers reason. If you want to live in a concrete jungle that is fine, I and many others don't. I moved out of Manchester because I hated it there.

Scale issue here: if "everywhere in the country" were build up to the population density of Manchester city, the UK would house 1.2 billion people.

I'm fairly confident there are not 1.2 billion people who currently want to live in the UK.
I've found that whatever powers Kagi.com's answer seems to be pretty accurate. It cites articles and other sources.

Trying a share link, hope it works:

https://kagi.com/search?q=what+factors+affect+the+freezing+p...
Crazy how even the “smarties” on here just repeat US State Dept talking points like a puppet. China might be hostile to the federal government but I have no beef with them, and I bet most of the populace doesn’t either.
It definitely worries me.

We're firmly at post-truth, and very much also at post-shame, particularly for the billionaires, which is a concerning place to be.

All I can do is try to be thoughtful with my words and actions and live according to my values.

At some point there may be a decision to be made, the kind of which was too common in the 1930s, and I hope I'll be one of those whose actions are looked upon fondly by good men in the future.
Pretty offtopic to the article but somehow related: does anybody know opensource or at least not subscription based solutions to things like Songsterr [1], whose mobile app is really nice to learn playing a song with an instrument?

[1] https://www.songsterr.com/
> No way to know how it turns out.

But one can speculate.

> No indication yet that use of AI is harming business outcomes.

Length scales to measure harm when it comes to policy/technology will typically require more time than we've had since LLMs really became prominent.

> The meta argument "AGI will cause massive social change" is probably true.

Agreed.

Basically, in the absence of knowing how something will play out, it is prudent to talk through the expected outcomes and their likelihoods of happening. From there, we can start to build out a risk-adjusted return model to the societal impacts of LLM/AI integration if it continues down the current trajectory.

IMO, I don't see the ROI for society of widespread LLM adoption unless we see serious policy shifts on how they are used and how young people are taught to learn. To the downside, we really run the risk of the next generation having fundamental learning deficiencies/gaps relative to their prior gen. A close anecdote might be how 80s/90s kids are better with troubleshooting technology than the generations that came both before and after them.
Do you think its a better place, or do the users think its a better place? Take political partisanship out of it. So its about a 30/30/40 breakdown between Trump/Harris/None. So 70% of people either Support or Don't care that much about Trump, and that's assuming that every single democratic voter is angry enough to quit Facebook over this, this is probably not true. You are looking at probably >85% of people that don't think that getting rid of Facebook would make things better.

A better world is subjective.
This. FAANG and adjacent pays so well, it's a better and more guaranteed outcome than startups - for people that have that option.

Dan Luu wrote about it over a decade ago: https://danluu.com/startup-tradeoffs/

The math is not in favor of working at a startup, if you do it, don't do it for the money. People finally wised up to this.

Even as the founder, working at a FAANG usually works out better financially and is much less stressful. VC's do all kinds of horrible things to founders, like firing them, forcing them to sell at a price that means they get $0 (VC's get preference usually up to 2x their investment - if the sale price is lower than 2x the investment, founders and employees alike get wiped out.) People are also wising up to this.

If you're going to found a company think really hard about joining YC and/or going the VC funded route.

I think it'd be a lot more pleasant to found a company worth $10 million after 10 years, and own 100% of it, than to found a company worth $100 million after 10 years and own 10% of it.

VC is only really for when you've found real product market fit and your biggest problem every day is meeting the insane demand. Everything is just falling over and you can't scale fast enough and you're leaving piles of money on the floor because you just don't have the resources to serve those customers. Then maybe it becomes a good tradeoff.

You definitely don't have that in the beginning, and most companies never experience that.

I used to drink the koolaid, I applied to YC multiple times. I'm still trying to start stuff on the side of my day job, but I no longer apply to YC and fully intend to bootstrap a smaller but profitable software business.
There is definitely a lot of variation in density, moisture content, fat percentage between regions, cuts, cooking amounts and methods. IMO using an average number here is probably best because to some extent it's hopeless to account for all of these things.

Most people don't stay consistent in tracking long enough for any of this to matter, so really it's about what is the most accurate approach to achieve your goal and sustain longer term.
How was it not attaining an unjust advantage when WP.org banned WPEngine?
Call me slow but I still do not get the "Alex". Alchemy?
> Knowing that you can permanently lose by doing certain things (does breaking the mirror count? I can't remember) puts a damper on my enthusiasm.

I ran into that with the Hitchhiker's Guide game. I dropped one item early on and got to the end and couldn't finish without it.
That is not accurate -- the Andromeda Galaxy is over 3 degrees wide. About 6 full moons.
I agree. Toughing it out usually doesn't pay. I was at a startup from "birth" (first employee and lead engineer) to "death" (acquisition for pennies on the dollar.) The first couple years were exciting, super fun. We built a great team, had an interesting product that solved a niche problem, several early customers. But the business model just didn't work out. It wasn't enough to sustain a real company. The downward spiral began...
I host dozens of static sites, none of them run on s3.
But finding correlations is only the first and easiest step in determining causation. And almost nobody continues with the hard work that follows. So we have tons of studies showing correlations one way or the other, and tons of conflicting studies. And we are apparently satisfied with this. The state of nutrition research is abysmal.
7 months to go through interviewing is outrageous, no?
I have moved to this.

CI works _fantastic_. Absolute top-notch.

Then I have to sort out deployment...
Probably depends on where you go.

I don't know about "the US", but as a "European" I thought serving sizes were comparable to what I get in restaurants at home. Drinks were an exception, since basically all restaurants had unlimited soda for next to nothing. This was actually great, since I was riding a motorbike in the desert in July.

For reference, I live in France and visited LA and random towns in the western states.
> There was this "pub trivia" thing that used to happen in the 80s and 90s where you would see a spirited discussion between people arguing about a small fact which neither of them immediately had at hand. We don't get that much anymore because it's so easy to answer the question -- we've just totally lost it.

A good example, but imagine the days of our ancestors:

Remember that game we used to play, where we'd find out who could see birds from the farthest distance? Yeah, glasses ruined that.
I'm not very familiar with Songsterr but from what I can see at that link I would recommend downloading Guitar Pro files from ultimate-guitar.com and displaying them in Tuxguitar (https://www.tuxguitar.app/) which is free and open source
Calm tech certification "rewards" less distracting tech
You're looking for a DAW (digital audio workstation). Ardour is open source and works on Linux. It's not one of the "main" players but I'm sure it has all the important features. You can google "how to mix music" and apply pretty much any tutorial to any DAW.
This identical comment was posted with three different, newly created, accounts in the span of a few seconds. You have since deleted two of them but the fact remains... need to work on your bot functionality.
I am in Florida. We have Winter, Summer and Hurricane Season. It's an yearly thing. Hurricanes get stronger every year due to warming waters in Gulf of Mexico.

There are bigger Hurricanes in oceans but since no Humans live it doesn't make the news.
As long as they have a deep bench of zero barrier to entry replacements this likely wont change
I’m guessing there a discord server somewhere with 90% management agents just waiting to honeypot potential union workers.

Seems like digital workplace should be easier to organize with all the community tools we have.
Department of Government Efficiency
So if you send a picture to a Signal user, it's retrieved via cloudflare, and cached in a data center near that user; now you can look up the cache status and find the data center used. I'd say "deanonymization" is stretching it, unless the user is in the middle of nowhere (no other users near the data center). But interesting writeup anyway.
> A month is a long time and the measurement error will accumulate every day, especially with fats

Over several months the errors will average out. Unless you eat out a lot, then the above method doesn't work. However if you are single (this is the most unlikely factor!) and cook most meals at home then calories in the door - what you throw away = calories that you ate. That is good enough.
Mega S4 Object Storage: Scalable and S3 Compatible
HN has become a very conservative forum (in the temperamental, not political sense). There is far more skepticism of new technologies in the comments, and a much stronger status quo bias than there used to be.

But I think this is more reflective of a shift in the makeup of HN commenters than of society as a whole. The people I work with today don’t seem any different, on average, than the people I worked with 20 years ago.
I'm not into calling everyone a nazi, but he has been promoting AfD...
It is much more recent than the Greeks. McLuhan, for example, had some good points* about how writing/reading is different (and indeed in some ways worse?) than oral tradition, and how it influences even our social interactions and mindset. Film is different yet again (partially has to do with its linearity IIRC).

So it’s not like “kids these days”, no. To be honest, I don’t know how generative AI tools, which arguably take away most of the “create” and “learn” parts, are relevant to the question of differences between different mediums and how those mediums influence how we create and learn. (There are ML-based tools that can empower creativity, but they don’t tend to be advertised as “AI” because they are a mostly invisible part of some creative tool.)

What is potentially relevant is how interacting with a particular kind of generative ML tool (the chatbot) for the purposes of understanding the world can be bringing some parts of human oral tradition (though lacking communication with actual humans, of course) and associated mental states.

* See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_McLuhan#Movable_type and his most famous work
AI and Digital Innovation Are Transforming Customer Feedback
I haven't dug into tach yet, but I'm very optimistic on this one.
I have had Bonfire [0] on my check-later list for a while, they seem to aim for a more generic use of the AP protocol. They also offer their services [1] to make custom implementations on top of their toolkit. Seems promising!

[0] https://bonfirenetworks.org/

[1] https://bonfirenetworks.org/mosaic/
Sure! Ping me an email jackoregankenny@gmail.com it's somewhat hush atm
That stinks. I know professional DJs often have a backup music player for this very reason. Even hardware can fault.
It might be useful information for other researchers to try to figure it what is actually going on, but probably not. And it is not at all useful for you and I trying to make sense of what we should eat.
There could be limitations on scaling the transistors as we approach nono-meter sizes, but there are other ways to sustain the Moore's Law and economies of scale; like 3D stacking, focus on specialized architectures like GPUs, TPUs, etc. and of course, the ongoing research on quantum computing which will also pay off some day.
> The act of doing entrepreneurship or stating up is inherently devoid from profit motives

I am assuming one is operating in the for-profit sector.

If one is NOT operating in that sector then yes it is all the more reasonable to assume that the enterprise should be focused on solving a problem or creating some sort of intangible value.

We can observe this is well with the open-source community, where profit motivation is not the main driving factor.

However, I reiterate, if the venture is to operate for-profit then it's potential to be profitable should be for most the aim otherwise it's not solving a problem because it will fail.
I'm sure Poland is going to be fuming a lot more about Trump's plans for NATO, Ukraine and tariffs than Biden's AI block.
I’ll say three things:

1) Someone’s body dysmorphia is not - generally - affirmed or denied by ordinary everyday passing social interactions. In polite society, you simply don’t comment on someone’s body composition. Gender is an entirely different matter as it is a constant differentiator in day to day life. Also, in my experience, body dysmorphia has nothing to do with other people’s affirmations. We’ve all seen examples of people getting repeated surgeries to change their appearance because they simply cannot see what everyone else is seeing when they look in the mirror.

2) I think in determining “how to handle it” from the perspective of psychotherapy, we should consider what treatment is considered effective. Psychotherapy is simply not effective at changing someone’s gender identity or ameliorating gender dysphoria. The established treatment for gender dysphoria is to align the person’s gender identity and gender expression.

To me, this makes sense when applied to your own life. Therapy might be able to help me realize that my perception of the size of my nose is not accurate, but therapy is not going to be effective at changing my gender identity. Do you feel that your gender identity could be changed using Cognitive Behavioural Therapy?

3) Refer back to the questions that I think should be asked if you find it too difficult to accommodate pronouns:

>What do you expect someone who is gender dysphoric to do? What do you believe the appropriate course of action is for someone in that situation? What would you expect or appreciate if you were a person in that situation?
This is quite a detailed write up. I went through the post quickly, but didn’t get why Signal would just download an attachment from an unknown number/contact without first prompting the user to accept or deny the conversation request. I’ve seen conversation requests always waiting for me to accept or not. If I don’t accept, I don’t see any messages on that chat and the other person doesn’t get any indication of message delivery. What have I missed?

If the message is from a known or trusted contact, I think there can be larger problems than just a rough location reveal.
That's a smart idea. It seems like it shouldn't be too expensive to get something like this up and running, but scalability once it's available will be an issue.

Estimates for how many gig workers there are in the US vary between "over 20 million" and "about 60 million." They're already tech-literate, they probably talk to each other, so there's a chance that an app like this would experience very quick growth.

I wonder how gig services would react to something like this. They'd probably try to identify users and deplatform them, so in addition to the financial aspects, one difficult part would be how to protect and anonymize such a platform's users.
This is exactly what [Tarantool](https://www.tarantool.io/en/doc/latest/platform/app/lua_tuto...) does. It's a shame I think that it never got much popular attention outside of Russia. I'm not sure why.