skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> You seem to be assuming that the rapid progress in AI will suddenly stop.

> I think if you look at the history of compute, that is ridiculous. Making the models bigger or work more is making them smarter.

It's better to talk about actual numbers to characterise progress and measure scaling:

"
By scaling I usually mean the specific empirical curve from the 2020 OAI paper. To stay on this curve requires large increases in training data of equivalent quality to what was used to derive the scaling relationships.
"[^2]

"I predicted last summer: 70% chance we fall off the LLM scaling curve because of data limits, in the next step beyond GPT4.

[…]

I would say the most plausible reason is because in order to get, say, another 10x in training data, people have started to resort either to synthetic data, so training data that's actually made up by models, or to lower quality data."[^0]

“There were extraordinary returns over the last three or four years as the Scaling Laws were getting going,” Dr. Hassabis said. “But we are no longer getting the same progress.”[^1]

---

[^0]: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1868027803868045529

[^1]: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1869922066788692328

[^2]: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1869031399010832688
> in the consumer conversational AI space.

The "consumer conversational AI space" only exists right now as a novelty, not a long-term market segment. In the not too distant future that space will be covered for most users for free by their hardware manufacturers, and the number of people willing to pay a monthly subscription to a third party will drop even further than it already has.
Fair enough! I haven't been through the train and release of a model like this, so it's new to me. Thanks for your work! ;)
Can you get a good job with only a 1st degree in biology? I doubt it.
Doesn't Apple force SMS 2FA on accounts? I remember trying to use Apple Music some years back and it needed me to give a phone number.
Getting an all-optical AI to handle non-linear math
Anyone who believes Zuckerburg values "free speech" or somehow opposes bureaucrats and politicians is naive or just pushing a political agenda. Meta has policy chief positions for India and Israel, both of whom have used their positions to try to suppress criticism of their governments [1]. The India policy chief quit in late 2022 and now has a similar position at Samsung. The Israeli ex-senior Israeli government official is still in place.

[1] https://theintercept.com/2024/10/21/instagram-israel-palesti...
This is very boring and very plain. Check out the designs from your competitors such as https://tryemailcards.com/ or https://wisestamp.com/
The Vatican doesn't interpret the Bible literally, and accepts the Theory of Evolution. Heck, the guy who first proposed the Big Bang theory was a Catholic priest! (Georges Lemaître)
>cultivating

More like manipulating.
"walking barefoot in the grass, planting native species in our backyards, or simply pausing to observe the life teeming around us" - from the fine article

Ok, I'll get right on it.
I generally loathe DEI programs in the workplace, mostly because they are almost always just about appearances: "let's make sure we have at least 20% minority representation" or whatever.

Early in my career I worked at a company where we only wanted to hire the "best" people. However, after several years many of us began to notice a slow, downward trend in the quality of our products (games) were and how well they were selling.

One theory that we started floating around was that the "best" people we were interviewing for was actually more in line with "people who think like us". We were really good programmers, artists, and designers, so naturally people who thought and worked like us would be good, too, right? And they were. But that thinking also ignored the fact that people outside our bubble could be equally as good (or better), and bring new (and better) ideas that could expand the target audience.

Later, when I worked at a biotech, there was no [explicit] DEI program, but from the very top (CEO) all the way down, we consistently were hiring for "different than us". We actually wanted different experience and different ways of thinking. When we'd follow-up with each other after someone interviewed, we'd ask "what does this candidate bring that currently don't have?" And it made such a huge difference!

When creating drug studies, having a minority race (equally) represented on the team would result in meeting comments like "we also need enough genetic data from the latino population to ensure ...".

Having women on the team meant getting challenged with knowledge like "mothers have a more difficult time participating in medical studies, so what can we do to remove those barriers for them so we can get a broader test population that includes women?"

Having someone on the team with a relative who was anti-vax meant being always hyper aware of that audience and made us think about it.

Could a team of all white men (I use that demographic simply because it's what I belong to) also recognize those same issues and address them? It's possible, but it's likely not going to happen by default. That's not out of malice; I believe everyone wants to do the best they can. But when people are working hard and moving fast, they naturally just fall back to their defaults for quick decision making and those defaults are born of their own personal experiences.

Anyway, don't hire minorities and people different from you to tick some box (whether for legal reasons or not). Don't make the mistake of thinking "I'm awesome, so people like me are the awesome ones."

Awesomeness comes in all shapes and sizes. Hire people who challenge you and your experiences and challenge them and theirs in return! You, your team, the product, and the company will be immeasurably better off for it.
You don't need the 16, you can get a much younger person to drive too. It only supports the fact that data amount/quality is not the problem.
This should probably be made the primary link.
I've worked with PhDs all my life in various industries and it has always been a fun and enjoyable partnership. Have fun.
It's a shame we haven't figured out how to do "modular" smartphones where the motherboard can be swapped out, like with framework laptops. I'd be happy with a phone from 10 years ago on all axes except CPU/GPU/RAM and corresponding security updates.
Are there any good sites like this for game music?
Please consider that not everyone has the luxury of having (had) a PhD advisor who really cares. There's a wide spectrum, ranging from micromanagers, to people you see once during your PhD, to advisors that are genuinely great (intellectually and as a person) and caring.

I wish you the best of luck for your PhD, a caring and supportive advisor, and great results!
But this is the same problem - Wikipedia is a secondary source and should always get overruled by the primary source.
Android Go, actually.

Teams, Slack, etc. won't work well (or at all). WhatsApp, Skype only in a limited mode.
Strange to see they're marketing virtual memory swap space like it's a good thing.
Congratulations on not answering the question I asked, and at the same time saying something that makes no logical sense.
Google Lens has already revolutionized my search. Anything that you can see but is difficult to describe, I now have a tool for searching for.

I use it a lot to track down original sources of videos and photos on Reddit, to check authenticity. I also use it to search for hardware components other manufacturers use, that I'd like to buy. Things like specific switches, knobs, faders, displays etc. (I build audio gadgets). I just highlight the part on the picture and then restrict my search to Alibaba, digikey or mouser. It's GREAT.

Lens is highly underrated.
I wouldn't want to use this as my main device, but I might get one just to use as the display for a DJI controller. At the moment I'm using an old Samsung S8 with a burnt-in screen and no updates.
> So, I'm not a believer in the classic winner takes all approach here where one company turns into this trillion dollar behemoth and the rest of the industry pays the tax to that one company in perpetuity.

I agree with this sentiment. There are a lot of frontier model players that are very competent (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Amazon, DeepSeek, xAI) and I'm sure more will come onboard as we find ways to make models smaller and smaller.

The mental framework I try to use is that AI is this weird technology that is an enabler of a lot of downstream technology, with the best economic analogy being electricity. It'll change our society in very radical ways, but it's unclear who's going to make money off of it. In the electricity era Westinghouse and GE emerged as the behemoths because of their ability to manufacture massive turbines (which are the equivalent of today's NVIDIA and perhaps Google).
Devices? Yes. Expensive? Only if you fail in picking them. Buy an iPhone or something. I'm in Android camp, but I only buy flagships (after some bad experiences with cheap end of the phone spectrum) specifically because I can rely on them to work for 3+ years, getting updates over that period, and importantly, still being performant enough relative to contemporary software as to not be annoying to use.

I agree with GP here. In the current security-obsessed zeitgeist, 2 years of security updates is criminally low, pretty much designed to generate e-waste.
Damn, you're right, I was so overexcited about that that I misread https://datatracker.ietf.org/doc/draft-ietf-httpbis-safe-met.... It's still an Internet-Draft and only the intended status is Proposed Standard... I will try to fix the submission.
What REITs have 15% return? That seems improbable.
I tried a relatively cheap nokia android phone a couple years ago and I'll never do it again. The camera would do this thing where you would take a photo, the screen would show that the shutter had snapped, but your actual photo would be whatever was happening a second later. I ended up with 10% of my photos being a blurry picture of the floor.
The illustrated guide (which I had known during my PhD) focuses on progress—however, niche progress. Yet, PhD students' life experiences are usually not centered around progress but frustration, disillusionment, and depression. If you want to compare it with anything else, it may be like creating pieces of novel art with great effort, with one's identity tied to it. Yet, even in the case of success, it is unlikely to be appreciated by contemporary people.

So, I prefer a narrative guide to PhD - "The Lord of the Rings: an allegory of the PhD?" by Dave Pritchard, http://danny.oz.au/danny/humour/phd_lotr.html
Thanks for the offer, currently I'm road tripping around southern Europe, partly as a way to escape from all that.
Yes, definitely. But becoming the head of YC was also due to his own merit. His merit was persuading the right people. After all, the essay where pg is giving his highest praise is an essay about fundraising.

Will you not agree that him becoming "the driving force of OpenAI" involved some highly publicized back-to-back persuasion drama as well? First he got Ilya and gdb to side with him against Elon, then he got OpenAI employees to side with him against Ilya and the board (a board that accused him of deceiving them). PG reiterated after that drama that Altman's special talent was becoming powerful.

This observation does not necessarily mean someone is a bad CEO, since the job of the CEO is to do good by your investors or future investors. And it's possible to do that without any morals whatsoever. But I think the recent drama did more to drive the competition than some of his investors would have liked.

Edit:

>At that time, OpenAI had no clear path to becoming the unicorn it is today, and YC was definitely better from a career standpoint.

This is very incorrect in my view. The presence of Elon Musk as investor and figurehead and Ilya, Karpathy, and Wojciech as domain experts, not to mention investments from YC members themselves (and the PayPal mafia) made OpenAI a very attractive investment early on.
Indeed. Apologies.-
Seemed like a successor in all but spirit when I owned one of their godawful pieces of crap. I weep for the old Nokia.
Matt has also written a great follow-up, "How to get tenure", see https://matt.might.net/articles/tenure/

Highly relevant for the aspiring researcher, and it describes really well the nonlinearities of (academic) life.
Age is a big one. But also for me it was a realization that I have different needs and the people I'd meet through my interest in some nerdy hobby were not going to fulfill all of my social needs.
I swear it is easier to argue with flat earthers than with people who want IPv4 but with more addresses.
I've been building websites on WordPress for 15+ years, run a WordPress agency and have many clients who come to us specifically asking for us to use WordPress. I'm seriously considering moving to something else because we use the WP Engine plugin Advanced Custom Fields (pro version) and him pulling the free version from the plugin repo in a hissy fit has made me seriously concerned about the stability of the ecosystem if one guy can do something like that in a fit of pique.
for iPhone and iPad: https://morseclock.com
Thanks!

Just for completeness apparently Alloy is at version 6 now (http://alloytools.org/alloy6.html) and the book is based on version 4 (http://alloytools.org/book.html). There's another resource linked on the site: https://haslab.github.io/formal-software-design/
What kind of software is it in this case?
Thank you for the "direct link to the bottom of the rabbit hole". This article makes the point clearly and succinctly.
I think the issue with these low end devices are that the duopoly on operating systems makes it impossible to develop a competing operating system that get's any traction.

I am 100% sure you, as a manufacturer, could develop a very lightweight shim over a linux or BSD kernel that has significantly better performance than Android does. It would however be a universal flop regardless of how useable it is since critical apps like WhatsApp/Telegram/banking would not get ported to that platform ever.

That effectively leaves you with needing a capable web browser and well... Even Firefox with every form of adblocker enable regularly chews up 2-3 GB of ram for me, at least on desktop. And building a competitive web browser to Chromium is an absurd endeavour for a cheap cell manufacturer.
That rationale assumes that writing software has a design stage and a build stage. It doesn't—software is the design, the building is done by the compiler or interpreter at runtime. So what's really being proposed is subdividing the design stage into a pre-design and a design.

Pre-design makes sense to me in certain limited circumstances. A limited amount of architecture planning can be valuable (though in most cases formal methods aren't useful for that), and for certain kinds of concurrent algorithms it could even be worth it to validate the design in a different language. But most of the time it's not worth doing the design twice when you can get pretty good guarantees from static analysis on the design (the code) itself.
Pay me so I'll provide feedback. Otherwise stop wasting my time with unwanted spam.

You are wasting my time, not yours, because you automated your spam workflow. The only strategical response is to flag your emails as spam ans to block your emails in the future.

Everything else is a losing game strategy because there are more spam emails per day than available time already.
One thing I find interesting in the labels of place names here, that I've also found in similarly old Bay Area content: Spanish names written in English where there seems to be confusion between "o" and "a", especially at the end of the word.

Examples I see here: San "Gregoria" (for Gregorio), San "Ignocia" (for Ignacio).

Some I've seen in another source, but not this map, were "Sausalita" (Sausalito), "Colmo" (Colma).

This reminds me of how older Americans born around the early 20th century, including one of my late grandparents, but also people in old movies, used to pronounce words like window ("winda"), tomato ("tomata"). Hearing "San Francisca" or "Sausalita" in those dated accents is totally not far off.
Probably better value to buy a used or refurbished phone, rather than a new phone at the extreme end of the budget category.
Honestly I think this is so much bait it's depressing: the guy writing the op-ed clearly means it to be bait, B-Z see it and correctly call it as good bait and gives it a ragebait title so everyone knows the score, and now it lands here on HN to really chum up the water.
Open Access Books from MIT Press
Belgium and Germany too.
To all people providing business services (email security software comes to mind as an example), PLEASE for the love of God provide a self-service portal so I can buy your product without having to talk to your salespeople.
> Peter Thiel's claim that google is a search advertising monopoly masquerading as a (competitive, non-monopoly) technology company

That's not a very deep insight, it's been pretty obvious since they bought out DoubleClick in 2007.
Alcohol habits aren't a black-and-white issue
o1 proved that synthetic data and inference time is a new ramp. There will be more challenges and more innovations. There is a lot of room in hardware, software, model training and model architecture left.
Why can't programmers be more like ants? Or a lesson in stigmergy (2015)
No but it doesn't use C library values so it doesn't matter. E.g. getting the command line arguments is done via calling `GetCommandLineW` so it doesn't use argv or argc.

This is actually necessary because Rust cannot assume it owns the entry point. E.g. a Rust library could be called from a C++ application or in a DLL, etc. So when someone calls `std::env::args` it asks the OS directly for the arguments instead of getting them from C.
Have you ever seen a heavy construction site involving land preparation? Like a new road being built?

Dust everywhere. Backhoes with 360 light coverage that makes a lighthouse envious. Trucks, trucks everywhere! Floodlights! String lights! Crane lights! Temporary light poles! Service lights! Warning lights! A dictionary of lights!

Can they work in the dark without producing so much dust? Can a tiger be a vegan?

Also the development is part wind power, this alone causes wake turbulence. So even if regulation demanded complete blackout after sunset on the penalty to of death the observational quality is still permanently degraded.
Google's Project Ara was this. A modular smartphone where you could swap any component out with plug-in modules.

I met a Google employee at a conference in 2016 and he let me play with his Ara for a bit. It felt fantastic. I'd have bought one in an instant.

Google cancelled the project.

I do wonder about the longevity of such a device. I still have all my Android phones from the very first HTC G1 and anything with a removable component feels pretty rattly now.

When Nokia 5110 were on the market and you'd owned one for a while, you needed to pack the battery with double sided tape so the contacts didn't disconnect, causing the phone to power off.

I guess that sort of thing is why Google binned the idea.
There is a middle ground. I spent $94 total after taxes/fees getting a Pixel 6A in August 2023. Its security updates end-of-life is July 2027. That's 4 years of security updates for only $23 more (assuming the £59 is taxes and fees included) and my pixel 6a specs blow this thing out of the water.
The value of UX is being ignored, as the magical thinking has these AIs being fully autonomous, which will not work. The phrase "the devil's in the details" needs to be imprinted on everyone's screens, because the details of a "drop-in remote worker" are several Grand Canyons yet to be realized. This civilization is vastly more complex than you, dear reader, realize, and the majority of that complexity is not written down.
Its just consuming two API's one being TMDB for movie data and https://vidsrc.dev/ the website has no backend whatsoever , I did this project just for the fun of it am not looking to profit from it
Lossless Scaling Frame Gen (LSFG) 3
I wonder if copyright holders would be okay if Meta had a legitimately acquired a copy of each copyrighted work they trained on. (not saying the issue ends there)
Thanks! I hope so. Experiments (to the extent that there are experiments in mathematics, which arguably there very much are) often fail, but once they succeed they're usually fairly bulletproof, and reproducibility is barely even a concept.
Computation isn't one of them so far. Do you believe this is the end of computing efficiency improvements?
AI models are not entities that can be sued, accused of a crime, or given legal immunity, to my knowledge. But I get the gist of what you’re saying.
Aaron had an unstable personality and they took advantage of that. A nudge here and there, and here comes the suicide. Look around people who Aaron frequented with to find the culprits...
Disregard them. A lot of people fixate on the 1 in a billion celebrity exceptions like Musk, Thiel, Gates, Dyson, et al and go “look look you don’t need a PhD!”

Yes, a highly motivated college dropout with a computer, a strong financial safety net, and the right social connections can be in the right place at the right time to seize big opportunities. Most people are not in that position. Many high-impact technologies need more than what just a computer can do.

The main thing is to be self aware enough to know the path you’re on, what paths are available to you, and how to make the most of the connections and resources you have available to you. The second you start to get pigeonholed, wrap things up and move on.
Show HN: I built a goal tracker to fight laziness and built dicipline
Hey HN.
I have always been a very ambitious guy, but I've had problems actually achieving what I want.
So I created AimDash, a tool to let users manage, track, achieve and analyse goals.
- User friendly dashboard - Powerful AI goal planner built using GPT-o4 - Advanced analytics to motivate users
Asger
> It slows down the development loop because every time you do a build you have to wait for a bunch of unit tests that you don't care about yet.

Can't that be an optional thing decided by some compiler flag? I think I remember doing something like that in D.
It was both. The succession was only about slavery. The economic motivation was only about slavery. The political motivation, after slavery, really was about states rights and that directly influenced all other factors even contributing to a weaker, fragmented, and less well funded military.

The name for post civil war revisionism is the Lost Cause Movement, by the way.

I too attended Texas public schools during that period and did not encounter any such revisionism. It was there that I learned succession started by 14 planters in South Carolina and spread to other states. I have since completed a history minor in college and completed book reports on the subject for military education professional development. Looking back the slant you speak of wasn’t there for me.

The political slant I do remember, though, is that the American Revolution was all about freedom. Not wanting to pay taxes hardly came up.
Perhaps integrated into fish farms, where they need power, almost always prefer cooler water, and have been site selected for calmer waters, have industrial permiting, in place, wharfs, trucks,tugs,etc.Aquavoltaics.
In warmer areas, surface encrustation will happen instanty, salt water on hot pannels will
get top coated with avian deposits.
Perhaps semi-submergerd pannels laying flat in calm equatorial seas could work well, but the markets and best locations will not line up, which
brings us back to transmission lines.
Like all solar PV installations, there are many
variables to consider and factor in correctly when
going for grid scale.And adding moving mechanical components to what is otherwise an inert, solid state device is a whole other animal than a fixed
ground/building mounted system.