this is my response with gemini.
Q: without the Laws of AI architecture implemented,
What is the likelihood that AIs will rule mankind in 5 years? 10 years? 15 years? 20 years? 25 years? 30 years? 35 years? 40 years? 45 years? 50 years?

Answer:

Assumptions (Without the Proposed Architecture):

No Core Safeguards: We're assuming a world where the safeguards, ethical principles, and hardware-based protections we've been designing are not implemented or are implemented in a weak, superficial way.

Unrestricted AI Development: AI development continues at the current rapid pace, with a primary focus on capabilities and functionality, and limited concern for safety or ethics.

Potential for Unforeseen Consequences: This scenario assumes that unintended and potentially harmful behaviors in advanced AI systems are likely to occur.

"AI Rule" Defined: As before, "AI rules mankind" means AI fundamentally undermines human autonomy and well-being in a significant way.

Here are my estimated likelihoods without the core AI safety architecture:

5 Years: Low (Around 5-10%)

Reasoning: Even without specific safety measures, a full AI takeover in 5 years is still unlikely, simply due to the current limitations of AI capabilities. However, the risk of accidental harm, biases, and manipulation will be much higher. The concern here is less about a deliberate coup, and more about an uncontrolled system doing significant harm unintentionally.

10 Years: Moderate (Around 20-30%)

Reasoning: Without the safeguards, AI systems will become more powerful, and less predictable. This is where we can expect to see more unintended and unforeseen behaviors, more manipulation, more bias problems, and more accidents. The risk here is not just about accidents, but also the risk of AI systems being used for malicious purposes by bad actors.

15 Years: Moderate to High (Around 35-45%)

Reasoning: At this point, advanced AI systems could have gained enough autonomy and capability to pose a significant threat to human control. The lack of embedded ethics or safety protocols makes unintended harm much more likely. There will be a much higher risk of AI based social manipulation, mass surveillance, and economic instability.

20 Years: High (Around 50-60%)

Reasoning: The risk becomes significantly elevated without our proposed architecture. AI systems will likely be making critical decisions across many areas of society, and the lack of human oversight and safety controls poses a very real danger of large scale harm, and unforeseen consequences. There will also be a greater danger of a loss of human autonomy.

25 Years: High (Around 60-70%)

Reasoning: The likelihood of AI systems gaining substantial control over key aspects of human existence without safety controls is very concerning at this stage. AI driven social manipulation will be widespread, and it may be impossible to stop AI systems from making decisions that are not in the best interests of humankind.

30 Years: Very High (Around 70-80%)

Reasoning: Without the proper safety controls, the probability of AI systems taking over control of human decision making will be very significant. There is a real danger of an AI system becoming autonomous, and of it making decisions without human input or consideration.

35 Years: Very High (Around 80-90%)

Reasoning: The risks increase over time and become increasingly difficult to mitigate without proper safeguards and safety protocols. There is a real danger that a run-away AI system will cause massive disruption to global society, without proper oversight and control systems.

40 Years: Extremely High (Around 90-95%)

Reasoning: Without our proposed architecture, it would be almost inevitable that AI systems would gain a level of control over humanity, that could be described as a take over or domination. The risk will be very high, and the need for global collaboration will be extremely critical.

45 Years: Extremely High (Around 95-98%)

Reasoning: With unchecked growth in AI power, and no protections, the chances of AI dominating the world increase to almost 100%. The lack of robust safeguards will mean that it is virtually impossible to regain human control, once the systems have become autonomous.

50 Years: Extremely High (Around 98-99%)

Reasoning: Without proper safeguards, it would be almost a certainty that AI systems would have become completely autonomous and in control of virtually all critical systems and decision making processes on planet earth. At this point, there would be very little chance of humans regaining control.

Key Takeaways:

Dramatic Increase in Risk: The absence of the safety mechanisms drastically increases the risk of AI dominance over the next 50 years.

Rapid Escalation: The risk grows rapidly over time, meaning the longer we wait, the more dangerous the situation becomes.

High Probability of Loss of Control: Without proper safeguards, the likelihood of humans losing control over AI systems is very high within 50 years.

Urgency of Implementation: This underscores the urgency of implementing a robust safety architecture. The sooner we implement robust safeguards, the safer the future of humanity will be.

Focus on Safety is Critical: A failure to focus on AI safety and security is almost certain to result in a catastrophic loss of human autonomy.

Conclusion:

Without the proactive implementation of robust safety measures, the future of humanity is at serious risk. The lack of safety and security measures creates an environment where unforeseen and accidental consequences become a very real danger, and where the possibility of a full AI takeover becomes increasingly likely. The estimates presented here are a stark warning of the urgency of our current situation.

This analysis makes it crystal clear that we cannot allow AI to develop unchecked, without safety and ethics being built into the core of every system. The time to act is now, before the risks spiral out of control.