skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Ask HN: What is your best devil's advocate argument against AI progress?
It seems that since the announcement of OpenAI's o3, the general consensus among many tech-adjacent people is that AI will soon eclipse humans in most economically productive cognitive tasks. What we've seen over the past 5 years or so is the predictable march of AI getting better, cheaper and faster month after month. Every new development or breakthrough leads to many more, and any supposed "wall" is quickly surpassed by a new training regime, inference approach or architectural advancement.

There has been a segment of veteran software engineers who, for the last 3 or so years, have been consistently bearish on AI and insist that not in 15-30 years will LLM's and the like ever be more than a nifty tool that speeds up the work of human engineers at best and creates superficially reasonable code that needs to be constantly fixed and maintained at worst. The consensus among these people is that AI is just a massive deluge of hype and empty promises, and that human intelligence is special, deep, and unmatchable by AI at least for many decades.

However, now, there is a growing pro-AI consensus among industry leaders and forecasters. It seems like the default prognostication is that AGI will arrive sometime between 2025 and 2029.

What is your best argument that this won't happen?
> I find types helps massively with this. A function with well-constrained inputs and outputs is easy to reason about. One does not have to look at other code to do it. However, programs that leverage types effectively are sometimes construed as having high cognitive load, when it in fact they have low load. For example a type like `Option<HashSet<UserId>>` carries a lot of information(has low load): we might not have a set of user ids, but if we do they are unique.

They sometimes help. But I think it's deeper than this. A function with inputs and outputs that are well-constrained with very abstract, complex types is still hard to reason about, unless you're used to those abstractions.

I think it's more accurate to say that something is "easy to reason about" if its level of abstraction "closely matches" the level of abstraction your brain is comfortable with / used to. This can vary dramatically between people, depending on their background, experience, culture, etc.

I could describe the Option<HashSet<UserId>> type in terms of functors and applicatives and monads, and though it would describe exactly the same set of valid values, it has a much higher cognitive load for most people.

> However, programs that leverage types effectively are sometimes construed as having high cognitive load, when it in fact they have low load.

Cognitive load is an individual experience. If someone "construes" something as having high cognitive load, then it does! (For them). We should be writing programs that minimize cognitive load for the set of programmers who we want to be able to interact w/ the code. That means the abstractions need to sufficiently match what they are comfortable with.

It's also fine to say "sorry, this code was not intended to have low cognitive load for you".
going slightly off the tangent here, does FaaS cloud providers like AWS, CloudFlare, and etc support SSEs?

Last time I checked, they don't really support it.
AI should enable high quality and deep honeypots. It's perfect for the current llm capabilities... Just look good enough.
Azerbaijani airline plane shot down by Russia
Of all the definitions and hidden assumptions about time we’re talking about, possibly the oldest one is that the sun is highest at noon.
To be fair this is less a language model problem, and more in the application layer around them.

Theoretically with an infinite context window a model would just work fine forever by shoving the entire conversation history into context with each request. But a message search/retrieval makes a lot more sense.

I think the long term AI chat is just relatively new as a UI pattern, and so it takes time to build patterns around it.

Ex: in 2023 I told GPT to answer all questions like a pirate. I never told it to stop doing that, so if we're loading every historical chat in memory, should it still be answering as a pirate?
Of course. But I use it dozens of times a day across dozens of projects. Many of the concepts are linked together. Intelligently indexing, linking, and referencing them seems like a pretty obvious feature. I doubt I'm in the minority in expecting this.
Ah-ah, Ok, i can see that something like that could help. Thanks for the clarification!
Yes, if you definition of efficient doesn't include nitrate emissions.
Game's name was Leader Board Tournament
I find the opposite. Being forced to consider hierarchical categorisation leads to a more powerful system in practice. It helps me create a mental reference to the item being stored. And it often causes me to see a better way to form an item in the first place — eg maybe this note is really two notes, maybe this idea can actually just be discarded, etc. Or, on rare occasions, a new item doesn’t fit anywhere (but is important) so I need to tweak the hierarchy itself — and that’s a good thing, once in a while, as it can lead to creative insights about the domain as a whole.

I’ve found tagging systems usually become a kind of dark swamp where things go never to be seen again. The lack of structure means I have little memory of what’s gone into the system, so I end up with too much duplication of ideas and inconsistency of style (mess). All this makes it uninviting and difficult to ‘explore’, so I don’t use it much except as a dumping ground, and the swampiness compounds over time.
I think this we’ve discovered the inflection point between the traditional hackers and the SV growth hackers that HN tries to court both of.
It basically offers a much better user experience, than manually bookmarking each link
Part of it is based on population density. It is an island if it has a name and someone living on it. Canada has thousands, hundreds of thousands, of unnamed "islands" with nobody on them. Wherever land is relatively flat, every water body will have a few.

Canada's north is so vast that even unique features remain unnamed, such as the "Island in a Lake on an Island in a Lake on an Island".

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/85342/island-in-a-l...
I’ve never really been anxious about dead internet theory until watching this video. I guess I just never had knowing exposure to it. Surreal dystopia.
I'm comparing from living in Europe, have no idea how these cars are in the USA.

I ride in Teslas cabs quite often here in Stockholm and they are comfortable but not at all what I'd expect from a high-end interior, the Mercedes, Lexus, Volvo, and similar cabs here look much better inside than any of the Teslas I got so far (Model S/Model Y).
90% of statistics are made up
Why do you subject yourself to web ads?
is there something like that for firefox?
Sure, but the GKE autoscaler will happily erase and recreate machines whenever it wants.

Divergences from the base image are inherently limited because of that.
The spider-rs GitHub project has concurrent chunking of AI while trimming the context of unwanted things html elements, css, and etc. You should check out the project. https://github.com/spider-rs
Top Astronomy Events for 2025
I mean this isn't rocket surgery, carrying a patch set isn't as hard as this thread is making it out to be. Your Linux distro right now is carrying thousands.
ARMv8A and ARMv8R can both be pure 32 bit as well, incidentally -- e.g. Cortex-A32 and Cortex-R52. v8A added 64 bit, but it didn't take away 32 bit. It's not until v9A that 32 bit at the OS level was removed, and even there it's still allowed to implement 32 bit support for userspace.
Lilium Narrowly Avoids Bankruptcy
I learned today, that o-1 is able to search through all chats and can find and verify if the findings are relevant to the actual context. i found that very usefull as i have a lot of very long chats regarding only one project.
ChatGpt lists the findings with the date and context and searches further back if asked for it. (in my case summer 2024)
> No way, no how. There is not a SINGLE city in Europe, Japan, or the US that managed to lower the housing sale prices by increasing density. Not one.

Kindly take a look at the city of Berkeley. This statement is just wrong.
QE money goes straight to the banks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing

> A central bank enacts quantitative easing by purchasing, regardless of interest rates, a predetermined quantity of bonds or other financial assets on financial markets from private financial institutions.[12][13] This action increases the excess reserves that banks hold. The goal of this policy is to ease financial conditions, increase market liquidity, and encourage private bank lending.

--

> I don't understand how you simultaneously believe that the government prints money, but doesn't fund government expenses with printed money. Do they just print money to devalue savings and spite you?

"The government" is not a monolithic entity. Money printing is monetary policy. Taxes and social services are fiscal policy. I think you are mixing those two things up.

The arm of the government that prints money is not doing it to spite the citizens (Hanlon's razor). They're doing to maximize employment, stabilize prices, and moderate long-term interest rates[1]. Funding schools is not part of those goals. That happens elsewhere in government, far away from the money printers.

[1]: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/12/225a
> The algorithms have never introduced me to a new song.

Nearly the same for me, the algorithm has introduced me to a new artist once, ever (and that was the old Google Play service which is no longer available).

Most of the time it creates playlists which are as someone described 'radio curated by the worst version of myself'.

My music discovery is via genre specific radio, a few review magazines, and exploring similar artists via reddit or allmusic.
Yeah this is seems like it's reduced the complexity down to one dimension (removing the CO2) and has blown past any of that, didn't even think about the algae initially, just energy expenditures getting this up and running, but yeah, that's pretty much saying you'll solve climate change by chopping down trees and planting golf course grass
Also keyframe handling are fiddly. Several years-long unresolved usability issues are in the forum like keyboard-selecting transitions etc.. The support forum is full of annoyances but BMD has mostly other priorities. I rarely complain as Resolve is still better than the rest for me
it is, but its not linear - the proportion of incomes spent falls as incomes get higher.
$ cat a.pp
{$R+}
var
a: 1..12;
b: 1..12;
c: 1..12;
begin
a := 10;
b := 11;
c := a + b;
Writeln(c)
end.
$ fpc a.pp
Free Pascal Compiler version 3.2.2 [2021/05/19] for x86_64
Copyright (c) 1993-2021 by Florian Klaempfl and others
Target OS: Linux for x86-64
Compiling a.pp
Linking a
12 lines compiled, 0.1 sec
$ ./a
Runtime error 201 at $00000000004010D8
$00000000004010D8
$0000000000422EEC
In addition to being formally undefined (see sibling comment), APIs sometimes use negative time_t values to indicate error conditions and the like.
Light is remarkably good at keeping its polarization state intact for long distances through single mode fiber. At least historically, the main issues with doing quantum computation with light is that’s it’s hard to store light and hard to get one photon to interact with another one in a controlled manner.

(Polarization of a photon is a two-state quantum system, otherwise known as a qubit.)
Look at the mental gymnastics you need to do to hold this worldview.

1. Not 4 times. 4 times per day every day you are in the country

2. Don't complain about racism in 1st world if you are from the 3rd world because the 3rd world isn't safe. Conveniently missing that racism here is between ethnicity of the 1st world towards 3rd world ethnicities, so basically this absolves all racism in that direction in the 1st world.

3. I'm scared of visiting South Africa because of racism, but a black man scared of racism in Europe where the police are constantly called on him, that's no big deal and he shouldn't complain, which I'm doing right now.
> The Makefile will download cosmocc automatically.

What can go wrong ?

> It's recommended that you install a systemwide APE Loader. This command requires sudo access to copy the ape command to a system folder and register with binfmt_misc on Linux, for even more performance.

A security nightmare.
That's not how it works in Python.

The C/C++ is shipped in the form of well-established libraries like Numpy and PyTorch. Very few end users ever interact with the C/C++ parts, except for specialists with special requirements, and library contributors themselves.
Right but it's a bit unusual. I was expecting the "pro" features to be in a separate repo or something.

I don't think I would even bother to update a local patch on every releases. I'll just use another foss app without silly "pro" features.
Of course, I just meant that it seems to have been the main factor in her story, rather than the fact that she entered Turkey from Europe. I can't really draw any general conclusions out of a sample of two; well, one, because this runner apparently didn't cross Turkey, so not really a similar route.
I built my own client (llmpad.com) to originally solve this problem, as well as using other LLM's and features. A little surprised others have not done this too?
You can try llmpad soon, feel free to message me.
MikroTik hAP ax²
I find a course like that overwhelming. If its for someone who knows nothing but is serious about learning this the course should go one way step by step to create and publish a website with an OS built in text editor.

Local dev is apache and a sites folder. they go and buy a shared hosting package for 5 to 10 dollareuros with a provider that gives them ssh access.

And you don't even mention any of the other ways to do this - they will find out about them in their own good time. You leave javascript out in this beginner course and you show them how to create a static site that loads in 1 second max on mobile pagespeed, gets 0 errors and 0 contrast errors on wavewebaim, an A+ on securityheaders and a proper dmarc rating on dmarcian.com

- and when they are done and see what a good looking blazing fast secure and accessible website they can make themselves while fully understanding how they did this, thats when the course can be called a learning experience.
> There’s an ongoing effort to end leap seconds, hopefully by 2035.

I don't really like this plan.

The entire point of UTC is to be some integer number of seconds away from TAI to approximate mean solar time (MST).

If we no longer want to track MST, then we should just switch to TAI. Having UTC drift away from MST leaves it in a bastardized state where it still has historical leap seconds that need to be accounted for, but those leap seconds no longer serve any purpose.
This seems plausible, but does anyone have any information on the reliability of this particular news source and/or confirmation from other sources?
I'm probably late to the party, but I was hoping to see a larger discussion on "Too many small methods, classes or modules" aka Deep Module vs Shallow Modules. I think we can probably debate just that last sentence alone for a while. I would imagine "module" here simply means a group of classes that are collectively related. Having "too many modules" is likely just the implicit complexity of the problem you're trying to solve. You either have all those modules or you have no product. If all products were trivial to code, no one would be employing you to create the product.

So the main thing we typically come across is "too many classes" and that's the example the author gave in the article. Nearly all the developers at my company go with the "throw everything into one class" approach regardless whether they're junior, senior, etc. I tend to go the extreme opposite route and usually create small classes for things that seem critical to test in isolation. While I'm coding that small class and writing unit tests, it feels perfect. When I revisit the code, it is a bit overwhelming to understand the relationships between the classes. So I understand the article's criticisms of too many small classes.

However, I have my doubts that moving this class into the main class as a simple method would reduce cognitive load. For one, due to the nature of our tools, e.g. JUnit, I would be forced to make that method public in order to test it (and now it's part of the large class's API contract). So I can either make it public, remove my unit tests, or attempt to make my unit tests part of the greater component's test which really overcomplicates the parent's unit tests. Ignoring the testing issue, is the cognitive load complexity just a file structure issue? Instead of turning those small classes into methods in a large class, I could just use nested classes in a single file. Or, there can be some package naming convention so readers know "these helper classes are only used by this parent class". I would be interested to hear others thoughts, but due to the nature of HN's algorithm, it's likely too late too see many replies :)
Right now the UI is only available through a VPC deployment. We are thinking about making the data grid / query interface embeddable or available through a library which would make it easy to self host.
I had the same thought when I read:

> If you want to strip out 1 gigatonne of CO2 from the ocean, you probably have to put the upper few meters of the Atlantic through your machines every year

That sounds…drastic! And this seems quite hand-wavy about the risks:

> a lot of environmental monitoring needs to be done to prove that marine carbon-removal strategies aren’t harming aquatic life
Thank you for this devastating read! What a punch to the gut!
then vaccination is online database update through forced learning
From the title alone I will infer that it's not worth it unless you are way too much into leather shoes compared to the average person.

But jokes aside, nice read. I did not know that there existed such a thing as self-polishing leather, and it does look really good.
The Performance Benefits of Linux 6.12 LTS over Linux 6.6 LTS
Yeah that quote/post is related to the FixScript language and it's libraries. I consider each project individually based on it's characteristics.

As for FixBrowser fortunatelly I'm not working on a full fledged web browser and it has significantly reduced complexity.
Hopefully this is the wake-up call for emirates, Qatar, Turkish, and air India to stop flying over Russian airspace permanently.
> It absolutely is true, I've seen it myself.

Seen what? How frequently the average oncologist studies? How many treatments went poorly because of outdated knowledge? I don't think you have.

> 100% absolutely they were.

So does this mean we are currently killing people out of ignorance and we should wait for the real research? Or we finally figured it out this time?

I'm not claiming nobody is making progress. I'm claiming that most working Doctor's don't read it.

> How is this relevant to the point?

Doctors are making mistakes with imperfect and bad knowledge all the time. All the credentialing, etc doesn't stop this - because they are human beings working a job.

> their decisions don't directly have an impact on whether people live or die.

In every other country a medical doctor is a 4 year bachelor's degree. So why doesn't Europe treat life or death seriously?

The word you are looking for is liability protection - in combination with labor union protection.

> If they don't fulfill those requirements, they don't work as doctors

Every professional class has such requirements - accountants, lawyers, civil engineers, etc. And Doctors are no more serious or caring than any of those.
I can see why someone looking to easily handle massive scale wants HLS, but why is it useful here?
Reuters also reporting it via their own sources: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/azerbaijan-airlin...
The source is really the Azerbaijani government - it's their investigative body and their claim.
Not all problems are technical. Some are social. Velocity of a large team should absolutely be taken into account when designing software. Does the concept of an assembly line also upset you? Not every thing can be done by a single craftsperson working in isolation or in a small group.

I'm not suggesting where we ended up is ideal, but it has utility. I hope for a language reset akin to kotlin for the c++ community at some point to help resolve the complexity we've managed accumulate over decades. There is a decent amount of effort from various parts of the ecosystem to accomplish this.
You're on to something.

I'm signed into my TV and whenever friends cast a video Google mysteriously forgets that it's not allowed to show me ads.
This sounds like a good use case for using a service worker. All tabs talk to the service worker and the worker is the single instance that talks to the backend and can use only one connection. Maybe there are some trade offs for using SSE in web workers, I'm not sure.
According to Apache they still get tens of thousands of downloads of OpenOffice every day (mostly Windows). It's a really bad image for free and open source software when users (who don't know about successor projects) discover that it's ancient, with no major update since 2014, and has unfixed security issues.
A deep learning puzzle: Can you find out who haunts the latent space?
Yes, there are logistics behind shops. It is going to vary a lot with what you buy and from whom. Food is likely to be delivered from somewhere local AFAIK so its not going to simplify the logistics.

Buying from a shop does not necessarily mean driving to the shops: at the moment (and in some places I have lived in in the past) there are quite a few things I buy from local shops I walk to. In some big cities I would take public transport to buy anything that was not heavy (and really heavy things would be delivered anyway, of course).~

The point of want to make is that its not invariably true and in many cases it is not obvious it is true - you need to know how the supply chains work.
What are the minimum and recommended amounts of RAM, hard disk space, CPU or GPU to run this locally.

As someone who just follows this stuff from afar, it is hard for me to conceptualize if this is a SaaS only model, or if it means we are getting to the point where you can have a A1 model on a local machine.
When Zig Is Safer and Faster Than Rust
> If you think 1 in 8 people globally is going to die any time soon because we can't grow enough food simply because it's 2C hotter

Where did I say that? The way it's going, we are likely to reach 4C in some decades. 4C means that human beings cannot survive outside in a large part of the Earth. That literally means that billions of people have to move away.

> Sure, maybe we get hit by an asteroid

We don't have to: what we are doing to the climate is worse. Dinosaurs died because of the climate change that was the consequence of the asteroid. Did you know that their climate change happened a whole lot slower than ours?

> or return to world war

What do you think happens when billions of people have to move? No need to wait for 4C: wait for enough ice to melt, the sea levels to raise and... well do you know how many people live close to the sea?

What do you think happens when billions of people are starting to compete over oil (because we are going there, too) in order to eat? When you start having extreme events (like drought), you rely a lot on energy to compensate. But even without extreme events: if tomorrow you remove oil, big cities starve. Because they need trucks to bring food into the city.

> But that's a different story.

Nope, it's becoming more and more likely that it will happen. Because what we observe is that the climate is worsening faster than we expected, and because instead of slowing down on the carbon emissions, we are still accelerating.