skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
>Allow everybody to only buy the cheapest of foods and the most basic shelters. Then declare that anything else is a want.

But most of the things we obtain are wants rather than needs, aren't they?

iPhones are a luxury good; they are significantly more expensive than budget smartphones that can nonetheless practically serve the needs of most people if not their wants. Is that Samsung Galaxy A15 a great phone? Hell no it isn't, but you can do your mobile banking and make calls and texts and do instant messaging and emails just fine.

Not having a smartphone like even that Galaxy A15 will make life exceedingly prohibitive today, but not having an iPhone won't adversely affect your requisite daily affairs. iPhones are a luxury good.

Keep in mind, I'm not denigrating luxury goods thereof or the act of enjoying luxuries. There's inherently nothing wrong with buying an iPhone or a six-pack of beer or a sports car or a big house or a family vacation to a faraway country if that's what you want. We only get one life, so we might as well enjoy it.
banger.

on real life image and video intelligence though i think google will take the lead here as they just have monopoly on dataset here given they have google images and youtube.

on proprietary general intelligence ai i think openai and anthropic will keep their lead, while on open source mark zuckerberg will be continuously leveling the playing field so the general population can keep up in terms of availability of access and end-result productivity.

something to keep eye on though is china. have you guys seen their recent open source models? very impressive. looking at it, it seems like a head to head battle between USA and China. Europe seems heavily distracted with its regulations and politics.

> I have a lack of imagination, but maybe something like on demand streaming services, maybe targeted to niche music genres (lo-fi, electronica, elevator/hold/office music)

goddamn that would be interesting. it's gonna be great to see lots of micro communities offering better content than netflix/disney/hbo etc which is prone to political and non-political influences and slow-downs in production.

> Generative AI for video will continue to improve substantially. The best I can come up with is that there will be a breakout indie film or music video that's produced from a skeleton crew relying heavily on generative AI video.

i wonder how much of the industry will transition into pure prompting too. back then we used manual instruments and talented voice actors for voice, these days you could (possibly) produce similar results if you're skilled enough to precisely describe it to the ai you are directing / working with.

> The cost of robots and other robotics will drop substantially, providing a reasonable bipedal option at $8k

huge bet on this too, the brains are getting better and for sure yc's request for startup will eventually have a section dedicated for the body and limb part targetting different industries.
* I was hoping for that this year, but: split of LLMs into databases and reasoning. Think small, capable PHI with pluggable information. Currently we're burning a lot of energy both to learn and process everything at once. The next step will be something closer to RAG, potentially selecting databases to load depending on topic, like a librarian. This will both enable more client-side applications and save lots of money for providers.

* Some AI provider seriously looking at / funding RWVK?

* (More) Healthcare issues in the US, spilling into other countries. (or just the beginning of them anyway - effects will last much longer and life expectancy will decline)

* Some companies seriously looking at AI as another manager / decision maker. Quietly, not as a publicity stunt like it's done now.

* Google search market share falling further. Maybe 85%, down from the current 90%. (more of a wish than a prediction)

* US policies / ideas around cryptocurrency will be wildly incoherent, causing big swings every month

* Consumer RISC-V laptops (again, wishlist)
The thing that you are handwaving away as just "which parameters correspond to what results" is precisely the important, the inexorable thing which defines the phenomena, and it is exactly the thing which we don't have access to, and which we did not and could not design, plan or engineer, but which emerged
>churning out new thinking at expert level across every field

I suspect this is really, "churning out text that impresses management".
I’ve always found Google sheets to be the easiest one of the lot to use. The OP article is funny but I’ve never seen anything like that any of the times I’ve used it.
> Popups announcing new features should be banished to hell.

But then how will the product manager make the chart go up and to the right?
I don’t agree with the thesis of this article at all. Yes, the abstracts have got more and more complicated. What about it? Human knowledge and discourse is simultaneously deepening and widening. Our own dot of knowledge is like a dot on a balloon. As the balloon expands, the dots go wider apart. Why should someone outside a field have the expectation of being able to understand anything they are saying, regardless of whether they are in the humanities or sciences? Esp. so in a PhD dissertation.

Here is the list of papers from STOC 2024, the premier conference on theory of computing.

https://acm-stoc.org/stoc2024/accepted-papers.html

I have a PhD in computer science, and I don’t understand a single line in any of the one line descriptions, let alone the abstract. It’ll be bizarre if I complain about my lack of understanding of STOC papers, or worse, that they should make it more accessible to us.

Why single out the humanities?
“ We saw the invention of the fricking World Wide Web on NeXTSTEP”

I can’t stand when people bring this up with such pride. Like the web couldn’t have came on SPARC or anything other than the glorious Steve Jobs cube.
Nobody bothers to think about large screen and mouse UX anymore. Everything's optimized for phones and tablets, and I guess that's where 95% of users are anyway.
Yah the points do contradict. I agree with you that the interaction between bathhouses (or similar) and communities is interesting. I can imagine a society with bathhouses, but certainly not our current society. The whole thing needs an overhaul to realign values with something that could successfully support public bathhouses. In fact I think that's the more interesting takeaway than the sustainability argument.
When 4 trillion dollars are at stake, the financing is available or it fucking better be.

What in God’s name do we pay these structured finance, bond-issue assholes 15% of GDP for if not to finance a sure thing like that?

It sure as hell ain’t for their taste in Charvet and Hermes ties, because the ones they pick look like shit.
We've made huge leaps in AI in the last few years with LLM's that use internet data. I believe that we have come to the point that improvements in those types of LLMs will slow to a crawl. However, we still have many types of data that we can gather and use to create different models. One that sticks in my mind is human kinetics. Can we gather enough human movement data to create an LLM type that mimics human movement in a robot? I think we can. And I'm sure there are other types of specialized LLM's that can be created with different types of data. AGI is a long way away but LLMs are here and will continue to evolve. So no, AI progress is not slowing. AI is only starting. We have decades of improvements coming.

Data is the new petroleum waiting for people to figure out how to use it to improve our lives.
I’m pretty sure what happened was all the UI started out big, and then high dpi displays made everything tiny, and eventually UI design caught up and made things legible again.

There’s no reason why I need 20,000 items on the screen at the same time. Fewer but more legible items are better. I can scroll for more.
Can you ask for the prompt when chatting?
'you got bike tire in my testicals!'

isn't quite as catchy as the old Reese's cup 'you got chocolate in my peanut butter' version but somehow sums up 2024.
We move to the post truth economy.

Info and culture war stuff remains an attackers arena. The market place of ideas continues to become less efficient for the average Joe.

Wikipedia starts to collapse. We move from artisanal content moderation to industrial content moderation.

People who can afford it, pay for accuracy and verified information.

Centralization of trust sources begins again.

People who can’t afford it follow tribal leaders.

Polarization passes singularity levels.

AI performs worse than expected, but continues to be made more tractable.

This results in public push back against AI, because no one in the labor force wants the neo liberal era to return.

The DSA data reports on Social Media create at least 1 furore by q1.

Markets wait with bated breath for the signs of contraction, and any contraction results in contagion effects.

No one expects the trump tariffs.
I've used Google Ads in the past but they didn't have any Ad Rewards... then I transitioned to using AdinPlay (https://adinplay.com) which does support mobile and Ad Rewards.
I find this all way too optimistic. Cannot imagine any of this year current top comment will happen with grifters at the top of the biggest economy, and with the speed of AI taking out jobs (which people deny here, I guess because big traditional companies are lagging behind); I think in 2025 this will become very visible.
No it isn’t, it’s empirically justified, look it up. Hence why the state insurance here in Germany is willing to pay for me to go three times a week. It works
WSDA, USDA announce eradication of northern giant hornet from the United States
StackOverflow is almost like that if you don't have an adblocker.
`flagged` because ?
> way worse for the other drivers

Light bars selectively disabling some LED segments (as in not blinding other drivers) are already a thing, but... they're not allowed in the US. If the regulation around it comes closer to the EU one, everyone will be better off.
Never had this problem with Gnumeric
That's just the 2020s version of how Google and smartphones ruined the ages-old social pastime of arguing about trivia in a pub :P
The business model contains dark patterns incentivizing patient deaths in many cases. It’s not that they’re turning a profit, it’s that they’re profiting off of death. If it was a break-even org (I.e. non-profit), people would likely have less of an issue with it.
ah yes the beautiful iceberg of internal documentation, legal paperwork, and meeting notes.

the highest quality language data that exists is in the public domain
Yeah it can definitely be a crutch too in some situations. I notice it with my kids where they’ll want to tell me about something but then seek a video or something to show it.

Sometimes I have to say “no! just use your words to describe it! I want to hear your description”
I had several family members experience episodes, and i have as well. In my own case it struck me as i was preparing to board a plane. Thankfully i was allowed off briefly before the takeoff. I knew that what im experiencing is so unlikely as to be impossible (eg large scale conspiracy) but could do nothing to shake it off. Eventually i found a safehouse and just hid there, letting it ride over me until it passed after a day.

Hasnt occurred since. Unfortunately, even after having experienced and successfully (in my subjective experience) navigating this, i was able to help others do the same (at least to what i would calk that).
For me the problem is that you always need to double-check this particular type of expert, as it can be confidently wrong about pretty much any topic.

It's useful as a starting point, not as a definitive expert answer.
Forcing Apple to implement interop and such extra features requires a non-trivial amount of labour. That trickles down to the customer in many subtle and not so subtle ways that the parent comment mentioned (more resources and higher inter-dept. coordination ceiling for a streamlined UX, etc.)

Comparing it to opinions about gay marriage makes you look dishonest, "None of this is about you, at all" makes you look plain silly
Amen. Everyone is talking about plateaus and diminishing returns on training but I don’t care one bit. I get that this is a startup focused forum and the financial sustainability of the market players is important but I can’t wait to see what the next decade of UX improvements will be like even if model improvements slow to a crawl.
You're probably young. I can barely see in 100% zoom and going back and forth with reading glasses is very uncomfortable. I spend 90% of my time looking for them. I have an air and a 16 inch Dell. I don't want to lug the Dell around because also, back pain.
This was a general theme in mid 20th Century passenger railroading, not just a NYC thing. For an occidental example, compare San Francisco's old 3rd & Townsend Southern Pacific depot to the modern 4th & King CalTrain station that replaced it:

http://www.snowcrest.net/photobob/3rdst1.html

https://www.google.com/maps/@37.7764516,-122.3948237,0a,73.7...

The ugly truth is that railroad travel was too accessible for many people to tolerate and so it was killed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Great_Migration_(Africa...
LLMs are almost certainly not the path to AGI, that much has become clear. I doubt any expert believes they are.
- Valve releases a Steam client for ARM64 and makes native ports of all their games, other companies follow and ARM becomes a much more viable platform for both Windows and Linux

- People will continue to push back against genAI, every company will still be split on whether to use it in marketing, customer support, etc (no change)

- Trump administration slashes a lot of regulations that affect manufacturing as he tries to make the US less dependent on imports, it doesn't make a huge difference though

- Trump to meet Putin in person

- AI hype cycle reaches a peak, bubble bursts soon after

- Linux market share 6% by end of year
I know right , I think he might be too bullish on bitcoin for it to double , though I may be wrong but it just feels like there would be swings because I still believe that there is no use of bitcoin , Its just that its the one which started these coins and there could be better one for use cases , maybe like IDK monero for real anonymous transactions , but even then these are more of a sidekick thing which I don't think I would ever use but I still like the idea of monero , I really really stay away from crypto.

I like index funds so much , that everything else feels a time / effort waste even though I am aspiring to be a programmer , maybe that's partially why I don't see much reason in crypto.

I just think of index funding 80% + bonds 20% or maybe 100% index fund into my own country index ,and maybe having some backup money in need , probably in a liquid fixed deposit or having multiple bank accounts and giving them all the maximum amount of money which is guaranteed to be given to me if a bank fails by the govt. , probably 10k$ is enough in my country or maybe I am still over estimating.
>> There are many databases around, but most of them work more or less the same. If you built on MySQL and you come to your senses and shift to something else

Im spending a bit of time on databases lately, mostly SQLite, PostgreSQL and MS Sql Server. With a bit of Firebird.

I never went down the MySql path, but statements like the above intrigue me (because I like to learn from others experience. )

So my question is - why not MySql? (And does the same argument apply to MariaDB?
My guess, stated without evidence:

1. Profits are capped as a percent of health care expenditures.

2. Employers (and people in the Marketplace) purchase insurance mostly based on price, which incentivizes lower prices.

3. (I'm guessing) Medicare advantage pays a flat annual rate to insurers.

4. Insurer denies large claims on Medicare Advantage accounts, turning annual rate directly to profits.

5. Insurer's denial of claims for other classes of policy lowers the price of the policy, increasing competitiveness.

6. Providers fight with insurance policy and fall back to billing patients, who can only pay pennies on the dollar.

7. The providers raise future rates to compensate for the costs and losses incurred by denials.

7. Increasing prices for all customers yields the desired absolute profits, without penalizing the company doing the denials.
Not if I burn them! Then they contribute to the air quality issue! Time to go cry in the corner!
For me, the repetition calls into question the snapping out of it, as though he might yet succumb, hypnotized.
You'd learn to trust it. People have pet dogs that could kill them if they wanted. As can other humans walking around your house.
Why does it matter what Terrance Tao thinks? Genuinely I find this obsession with what some specific math researcher thinks about x topic bizarre.

What do you think of it?
Engineers at hyperscalers are struggling through all the bugs too. It's coming at notable opportunity cost for them, at a time when they also want an end to the monopoly. Do they buy AMD and wade through bug after bug, regression after regression, or do they shell out slightly more money for Nvidia GPUs and have it "just work".

AMD has to get on top of their software quality issues if they're ever going to succeed in this segment, or they need to be producing chips so much faster than Nvidia that it's worth the extra time investment and pain.
No, many have forgotten it, but it is strangely one of the references that arises for me most quickly because at age 12, my best friend used to quote it from Telefon.

I wouldn't read from seriously for several more years yet, and both my friend and I became English lit undergrads.
This originated from this reddit thread and has been proved as fake.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Warthunder/comments/10j1hqr/congrat...

source: the pinned comment on that thread
It wasn't really a bug. Long before I had any Apple devices, some stranger used my email address as their recovery address. I clicked "OK" for fun. Then I got an iPhone and realized my main email address was blacklisted because it "belonged" to somebody else.
Praying for the day we can move past talking about how cool autocomplete tricks are.
> he was in fact a client of UHC with a substantial claim denial history

It doesn't appear he was [1].

[1] https://apnews.com/article/luigi-mangione-united-healthcare-...
Absolutely. In 2020 I gave myself permission to simply abandon books and it has really helped me out.
In Kolkata where I was born but didn't grow up, this is called "Adda" culture[1] at coffee houses. I guess in Germany they would call this Kaffeekränzchen. Super interesting how this pops up organically in most urban settings. Would love to join a new movement around this in my town.

[1]: https://www.telegraphindia.com/my-kolkata/places/from-colleg...
I agree with you (living in europe as well); I don't think it will happen in 2025; probably trump year 1 will go fine and europe will just go further down as it is. But somewhere in this trump term, all dominos will fall: US debt storm, normal people in the biggest economy no longer being able to live of their wages, the rich owning all, followed by a massive recession; this will be the final straw for a weakened europe. I am not entirely sure how to arm for this, but I will have to find out.
Maybe I was just a bad kid, but if my parents had done something like this, my friends and I would have pooled our cash and bought a used phone.

That wouldn't invalidate this and it would still be better, but just FYI. Any parent-driven solution would be seen as the parents being ridiculous and unfair by the kids, at least at first.
They could enable dismissing the popups with the escape key or by clicking outside the popup.

I have to admit, I've just closed the tab a few times instead of acquiescing to click "got it".
> iPhones cost somewhere in the realm of $1000 to $2000 give or take

The upfront purchase price is $0 in most rich countries.
> I do agree that you can learn with trial and observations, but it's way faster to have someone transmit the knowledge either in person or in books.

This entirely depends on the teacher or the book author.

The "do not try anything new, but repeat after me" is a popular method of teaching things when we talk about skills, but often the next step is not just pursued but entirely discouraged.

There is a particular point where a teacher says "some of you might fail, but it is a sacrifice I am willing to make" & ask people to do something entirely new by themselves.

That is cross-over point where being self-taught has some advantages, because you have external guidance but not instruction.

If you're the kind of person who has failed a lot learning basics, then those new failures are less of a knock on your ego than if you had coasted through the early years without learning the parts which come after a failure.

Maybe if we all had a clear memory of "learning to walk", it would help - six+ months of falling down and not giving up, which most of us have done once.
And their Münchner beer list on tap is unmatched anywhere in the city. Even Proust or Otto and Anita’s. Love that place.
> ADHD medications will also hit a record high.

Do you mean that the current volume restrictions will be removed?
Code is written to be auditable by humans, if you just generate machine code how will you know the level of correctness? Would you save the prompts then I have to prompt review before merge? That would end up being much wordier than a code file.
DMCA is a legal mechanism that the platform has to comply with. This isn't a case of a private company removing something that violates the ToS, it is a law that can be easily be abused by a third party to cause content to be taken down.

It's like if there was a law that said if you send a notification to a storage or logistics company that you think one of their customers has counterfeit goods in their storage, the storage company is legally obligated to destroy the suspect property, regardless of whether there is any evidence that it is actually counterfeit. Or even just, that company is no longer allowed to provide service to that customer, and is allowed to seize and keep any property they currently have control over.

I could also talk about how many of these platforms have too much power, and the lack of competition makes it problematic if they have control to censor as they please, but that is really a different topic.
Too cheap to hire a voice actor, let's stress out some random telephone operator.
But it's very much a "you" problem if someone gets dazzled by your excessively bright and poorly aimed headlights and then crashes into you at high speed.

It's a weird situation here in the UK. We have newer vehicles sold with the over the top lights that were factory fitted that can legally be driven on our roads. Meanwhile relatively old but still useful vehicles with underpowered lights from a decade or longer ago often can't update those lights even though better replacement parts are available. Our regulations are obscure and antiquated and mean the vehicle would potentially fail its mandatory annual testing because the replacements don't have the right regulatory mark - so the vehicle would no longer be legal to drive on the road even though its lights would be significantly better and safer than what it originally had but not the crazy ones some new cars arrive with.
I've done it. It's nowhere as complicated as you make it seem. It definitely doesn't kill - no more than failing to manage your software tech debt. In fact, the latter is both harder keep up with and more risky, because it changes faster than the low level stuff, to support business needs.

With the cloud you have IT/DevOps deal only with scaling the software components of the infra. When doing on-prem they take on the physical layer as well. Do you have enough trust in them to scale the physical part where needed?