skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
I don’t believe I can come up with accurate numbers like that. I have no chance against a big company with a bunch of actuaries who do that for a living.

I think I really can sometimes tell if I’m riskier or safer than the average person. I can observe other people’s behavior and compare it to mine. But even then, my impressions will be subject to a lot of biases (eg. everyone thinks they are an above-average driver).

If I assume the insurance company has done the math so they make a decent margin, and if I’m confident I’m a better or worse risk, it’s possible I can use that reasoning to guess whether insurance is a good value for me.
Full on mechanical engineering needs a body. While there are companies working on embodiment, were not there yet.

It'll be some time before there is a robot with enough spatial reasoning to do complicated physical work with no prior examples.
Even if compute costs drop by 10X a year (which seems like a gross overestimate IMO), you're still looking at 1000X the cost for a 2X annual performance gain. Costs outpacing progress is the very definition of diminishing returns.
As someone who grew up in the 90’s and partied the way they did in the 90’s If there is a switch from drugs to social media I find that incredibly dystopian.
Are historical weather forecasts more accurate than forward-looking ones?
This was my exact thought when I hit that point in the article. How am I supposed to know the probability to make these calculations? And if I make up numbers that "seem" reasonable, how is that better than buying insurance to sleep better?
>Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate someone else’s job or be automated yourself.

This has essentially been happening for thousands of years. Any optimization to work of any kind reduces the number of man hours required.

Software of pretty much any form is entirely that. Even early spreadsheet programs would replace a number of jobs at any company.
The AI technology is new but the compute technology is not; we're getting close the physical limits of how small we can make things, so it's not clear to me at least how much more performance we can squeeze out of the same physical space, rather than scaling up which tends to make things more expensive not less.
Light loops around the earth ~7.75x a second iirc so a few orders of magnitude less makes sense
Depends on what you’re building. A general assistant is going to have a lot of nuance. A well defined agent like a tutor only has so many tools to call upon.
I think the eyebrow raise is due to the fact that nobody cool uses Snapchat anymore. It’s like Facebook now.
Real-world data collection is a big missing component at this stage. An obvious one is journalism where an AI might be able to write the most eloquent article in the world, but it can't get out on the street to collect the information. But it also applies to other areas, like if you ask an AGI to solve climate change, it'll need accurate data to come up with an accurate plan.

Of course it's also yet another case where the AI takes over the creative part and leaves us with the mundane part...
Nice try, but-

The machine they use to toss the coin has a spring, and Im sure the spring tension varies through time effecting results.
Disregarding the weird response, you do know 20-29 year olds have the lowest average BMI for adult age groups right?
You’ve misread the comment.

The ownership model is close enough, but the way that model is expressed by the developer is completely arbitrary (and thus completely nuts).
well lets just say i think i can explain reasoning better than anyone ive encountered. i have my own hypothesized theory on what it is and how it manifests in neural networks.

i doubt your mathmatician example is equivalent.

examples that are fresh on the mind that further my point.
ive heard yann lecun baffled by llms instantiation/emergence of reasoning, along with other ai researchers. eric Schmidt thinks the agentic reasoning is the current frontier and people should be focusing on that. was listening to the start of an ai machine learning interview a week ago with some cs phd asked to explain reasoning and the best he could muster up is you know it when you see it…. not to mention the guy responding to the grandparent that gave a cop out answer ( all the most respect to him).
To be honest maybe no one should worry.

If AI truly overtakes knowledge work there’s not much we could reasonably do to prepare for it.

If AI never gets there though, then you saved yourself the trouble of stressing about it. So sure, relax, it’s just the second coming of GeoCities.
If I were to buy health insurance, it would cost between $400 and $800 per month. It would likely not cover me from financial ruin anyway. If I'm uninsured, I receive treatment and never pay the bill. Maybe this affects my credit, but it is not financial ruin.

In reality, I get good health insurance through an employer. When I am employed.

$1000 is nothing compared to the expense of being insured.
I’m not sure if people realize what a weird test this is. They’re these simple visual puzzles that people can usually solve at a glance, but for the LLMs, they’re converted into a json format, and then the LLMs have to reconstruct the 2D visual scene from the json and pick up the patterns.

If humans were given the json as input rather than the images, they’d have a hard time, too.
At the university squirrels regularly stole our pizzas ( see https://imgur.com/gallery/HBLFoNA ). At my house, they also took avocados.
I think this is a fair criticism of capability.

I personally wouldn't be surprised if we start to see benchmarks around this type of cooperation and ability to orchestrate complex systems in the next few years or so.

Most benchmarks really focus on one problem, not on multiple real-time problems while orchestrating 3rd party actors who might or might not be able to succeed at certain tasks.

But I don't think anything is prohibiting these models from not being able to do that.
The median bank account balance is $8000:

https://www.bankrate.com/banking/savings/savings-account-ave...

I'm not sure where you got that stat, but would like to know if it's reconcilable with bank account balances.
I think we all realize deep down there are too many humans on this planet.
Cory Doctorow wrote a prescient novella about health insurance and murder
I feel like many people are reacting to the string "AGI" in the benchmark name, and not to the actual result. The tasks in question are to color squares in a grid, maintaining the geometric pattern of the examples.

Unlike most other benchmarks where LLMs have shown large advances (in law, medicine, etc.), this benchmark isn't directly related to any practically useful task. Rather, the benchmark is notable because it's particularly easy for untrained humans, but particularly hard for LLMs; though that difficulty is perhaps not surprising, since LLMs are trained on mostly text and this is geometric. An ensemble of non-LLM solutions already outperformed the average Mechanical Turk worker. This is a big improvement in the best LLM solution; but this might also be the first time an LLM has been tuned specifically for these tasks, so this might be Goodhart's Law.

It's a significant result, but I don't get the mania. It feels like Altman has expertly transformed general societal anxiety into specific anxiety that one's job will be replaced by an LLM. That transforms into a feeling that LLMs are powerful, which he then transforms into money. That was strongest back in 2023, but had weakened since then; but in this comment section it's back in full force.

For clarity, I don't question that many jobs will be replaced by LLMs. I just don't see a qualitative difference from all the jobs already replaced by computers, steam engines, horse-drawn plows, etc. A medieval peasant brought to the present would probably be just as despondent when he learned that almost all the farming jobs are gone; but we don't miss them.
A valid conspiracy theory but I’ve heard that one everystep of the way to this point
In 2016 I was asked by an Uber driver in Pittsburgh when his job would be obsolete (I’d worked around Zoox people quite a bit and Uber basically was all-in at CMU.

I told him it was at least 5 years, probably 10, though he was sure it would be 2.

I was arguably “right”, 2023-ish is probably going to be the date people put down in the books, but the future isn’t evenly distributed. It’s at least another 5 years, and maybe never, before things are distributed among major metros, especially those with ice. Even then, the AI is somehow more expensive than human solution.

I don’t think it’s in most companies interest to price AI way below the price of meat, so meat will hold out for a long time, maybe long enough for you to retire even
I wonder if it is like facebook.

The next generation weren't interested in facebook, because "that's what moms use" and figured out something different.

As to drugs, now many are legal, so parents can now partake in what used to be illegal for them. Or for harder drugs, "Uncle Bob does drugs, and he's always in trouble".

So one generation of parents acts as a negative example for the next generation to reject.
> The purpose if insurance is not to help us pay for things that we literally do not have enough money to pay for. It does help in that situation, but the purpose of insurance is much broader than that. What insurance does is help us avoid large drawndowns on our accumulated wealth, in order for our wealth to gather compound interest faster.

Neat. What about people who don't have accumulated wealth?
Yeah I'm generally a big fan but that one is a bit obscure - according to this [0], it's just the incongruity of trained professionals in mortal danger using a childish nickname for the thing that's about to destroy them.

[0] https://www.cbr.com/the-far-side-confusing-comics-like-cow-t...
Apple still makes most of their money off hardware. They really want you to buy their hardware.
> There’s an easier tell. It’s impossible because you can’t to get Google to help you at all about any account issues, ...

Paying Google apps / GSuite users can call a number and it's real humans answering (and they're very helpful).

But indeed I don't think they proactively call you.
In the context of ARM machines, it's [historically] been the case that most of the devices are not servers (although that's slowly changing nowadays, which is nice to see!!)
they can be tricked into performing prohibited tasks

This reminds me of the school principal who sent $100k to a scammer claiming to be Elon Musk. The kicker is that she was repeatedly told that it was a scam.

https://abc7chicago.com/fake-elon-musk-jan-mcgee-principal-b...
> If I'm uninsured, I receive treatment

I think this is true if you walk into an emergency room with a life-threatening illness; is this true if you start developing tooth problems, or diabetes? Can I walk into the ER with bad kidneys and get a round of dialysis on the house?
There is a survivorship bias on the people giving advice.

Lots of people die for reason X then the world moves on without them.
I've been thinking about this lately.

For a couple weeks, I was worried about my health insurance for next year through my state's marketplace and I was considering whether it would be worth the unsubsidized price of $350-450 per month. Ultimately, I don't have enough information about my risks to feel comfortable with my analysis. While it would be mentally soothing to use the calculator, it's not really helpful.

I'm also curious what's going on with insurance prices this year. The health insurance premiums this year are 33% more and just today I got my home insurance renewal asking for 25% more with the exact same coverage amounts. Did something happen to justify these increases?
Always need to believe AI needs to be operated by humans, when it can go end to end to replace a human, you will likely not need to worry about money.
Hey, what if there was a way to get paid to have someone else handle this for you? That would be crazy right
Ironically, they are used as free labor to label image sets for ai to be trained on.
This demonstrates the problem with business plans that rely upon a 3rd party service or services over which one has no control and is subject to the whims of 3rd party TOS that can be changed with no warning.
From their charts, o3 mini outperforms o1 using less energy. I don’t see the diminishing returns you’re talking about. Improvement outpacing cost. By your logic, perhaps the very definition of progress?

You can also use the full o3 model, consume insane power, and get insane results. Sure, it will probably take longer to drive down those costs.

You’re welcome to bet against them succeeding at that. I won’t be.
> continuous

So, steps?
I have four bedrooms, living/family room, study, office, rumpus room, garage, workshop, and trying to build out a basement with three more rooms. Each of these rooms have some form of smart lighting or devices like TVs or thermostats that people have a much easier time controlling with voice than phone apps. Granted this may sound extravagant but I have a large family so all this space is all very well utilized hence the need for a basement expansion. Again, at $25/room and bought over time the Echo Dots are a really simple way to add very easy to use controls that require almost no user training. We pause the living room TV and “set condition two throughout the fleet” at the end of the day with these devices.
Still beats radio. That was all payed placements. With commercials. And obnoxious DJs.
For millenials and older gen z yeah, but it's my understanding (and my complete surprise as a millenial) that snapchat is actually big again amongst actual children.

Can anyone who better knows the reality here chime in?
I've always remembered this little conversation on Reddit way back 13 years ago now that made the same comment in a memorably succinct way:

> [deleted]: I've wondered about this for a while-- how can such an employment-centric society transition to that utopia where robots do all the work and people can just sit back?

> appleseed1234: It won't, rich people will own the robots and everyone else will eat shit and die.

https://www.reddit.com/r/TrueReddit/comments/k7rq8/are_jobs_...
If I wanted a Rivet integration with Godot Engine and/or Elixir, how would I do it for shared durable objects in a virtual reality environment?

I have code for Godot Engine Foundationdb access, but I'm cutting too many encapsulation layers.
Nice, with software and radio being interlinked it seems you could craft a system with a web app for a rudimentary first draft. Want to have a stab at it?
This is pretty apologist. The PLO started using it while referring to Likud, so it was their version of taking it back, in the 1980s.

I'm sure they could have come up with it themselves had they wished.

But whitewashing it as just a saying on Israel's part, but a threat on Palestine's... given that multiple members of Likud, often in official capacities, openly espouse and encourage exactly that, taking more land from Palestine.
The future belongs to those who believe there will be one.

That is: If you don't believe there will be a future, you give up on trying to make one. That means that any kind of future that takes persistent work becomes unavailable to you.

If you do believe that there will be a future, you keep working. That doesn't guarantee there will be a future. But not working pretty much guarantees that there won't be one, at least not one worth having.
A group buy is when you want to buy a bunch of existing product at wholesaler prices. Kickstarter is about funding new project that don’t exist yet. Like if the wholesaler refuses to sell you 1000 video cards, just give the money back. If you spend the Kickstarter money and can’t land a product there isn’t much you can do for refunds.
It doesn't look so good on IG and TikTok if you're wasted and unhealthy. Image culture's positive flipside is appearance is a currency of respect, and people don't want to lose it. I guess there had to be some silver lining, right? Ha! :)
What makes d3-force so excellent that you'd want to port it? Do force layouts have a lot of subtlety?
It doesn't comfort me when people say jobs will "go the way of photography". Many choose to go into STEM fields for financial stability and opportunity. Many do not choose the arts because of the opposite. You can point out outlier exceptions and celebrities, but I find it hard to believe that the rare cases where "it really matters" can sustain the other 90% who need income.
Nah, it's death. People objectively are doing better than ever despite wealth inequality. By all metrics - poverty, quality of life, homelessness, wealth, purchasing power.

I'd rather just... not die. Not unless I want to. Same for my loved ones. That's far more important than "wealth inequality."
Very convenient for OpenAI to run those errands with bunch of misanthropes trying to repaint a simulacrum. To use AGI here's makes me want to sponsor pile of distress pills so people think things really over before going into another mania Episode. People need seriously take a step back, if that's AGI then my cat has surpassed it's cognitive acting twice.
What was it that initially inspired you to learn to code? Was it robots, video games, design, etc... Whatever that was, creating the pinnacle of it is what your future will be.
My guess as an amateur neuroscientist is that what we call intelligence is just a 'measurement' of problem solving ability in different domains. Can be emotional, spatial, motor, reasoning, etc etc.

There is no special sauce in our brain. And we know how much compute there is in our brain– So we can roughly estimate when we'll hit that with these 'LLMs'.

Language is important in a human brain development as well. Kids who grow up deaf grow up vastly less intelligent unless they learn sign language. Language allow us to process complex concepts that our brain can learn to solve, without having to be in those complex environments.

So in hindsight, it's easy to see why it took a language model to be able to solve general tasks and other types deep learning networks couldn't.

I don't really see any limits on these models.
Metal desks!
We've seen 10-100x cost decrease per year since GPT-3 came out for the same capabilities.

So... Next year this tech will most likely be quite a bit cheaper.
Well they did lose the case. Whatever they were contending was clearly incorrect.
Robots can only proliferate at the speed of real world logistics and resource management and I think will always be a little difficult.

AI can be anywhere any time with cloud compute.
> From what I can tell I would need to have my crypto seed laser etched into titanium, and then treat that talisman as if it was made of pure platinum as far as securing and tracking it.

Not sufficient. You'd also need someone you trust 100% to have another seed protected as if it was the gold of Fort Knox. And then you'd only only use "multisig" to sign transfers.

And that other person needs to live on another continent.

And you both need a backup plan in case you die if you plan to leave these 0.1 Bitcoin to your heirs.

This makes the $5 wrench attack impossible to succeed. As to whether the attacker is willing to add gratuitous (because it's impossible it'd succeed) torture/killing to its list of crime is something else though.

> I will say, the BTC appreciation is a big attraction of course, but long term I don’t see how it becomes widely adopted...

I think mid-term to long-term people simply buy a Bitcoin ETF or stocks from a company holding shitloads of Bitcoins like MicroStrategy. Just like I buy SLV (paper silver) or the ZKB silver ETF (physical replication, in vaults in Switzerland).

Keeping your own Bitcoins is not unlike keeping physical gold coins. It's doable but risky. Multisig really helps a lot but buying a Bitcoin ETF is simply easier. Open bank or broker website, click click. Done.

I'm not saying Satoshi's dream or the Bitcoin maximalists' dream is good old Wall Street manipulating Bitcoin's price using paper Bitcoin (silver ETFs were in big trouble in 2021) but what I'm saying is I think that's how it's going to end.
the FAQ page on the grayjay site is broken/404ing: https://grayjay.app/faq
Don’t forget humans which is real GI paired with increasing capable AI can create a feed back loop to accelerate new advances.
Although Commonwealth Shakespeare has performances on the Common every summer and there's a fairly large underground parking garage there.
I haven't used CodeWarrior for PowerPC, but that approach sounds like it requires the C compiler to understand the assembler instructions you are using. Is it? But most use cases of inline assembler I've seen these days is for using instructions that the compiler will not emit.
The mathematical challenges of voting systems is one of the reasons I've come to support multi-member districts. When only a single person can represent a jurisdiction you're always going to have people disappointed in the choice and we have have plenty of proofs that perfect voting isn't possible, so we need to aim for best reasonable compromise.

Voting is even more about identifying who didn't win than who did win. In a multi-member district a much smaller slice of the electorate 'loses', making it much easier to build broad consensus around results.

Some of the sharper edges of many ranked choice or scoring voting systems are blunted by multi-member districts. They are not winner-take-all, so small changes in expressed preference that would have changed the winner in a single member district just re-orders the winners. Specific candidates could still find themselves losing when another system would have elected them, but the electorate as a whole still ends up with representation they can tolerate.
Think of AI as an excavator. You know, those machines that dig holes. 70 years ago, those holes would have been dug by 50 men with shovels. Now it's one guy in an excavator. But we don't have mass unemployment. The excavator just creates more work for bricklayers, carpenters etc.

If AI lives up to hype, you could be the excavator driver. Or, the AI will create a ton of upstream and downstream work. There will be no mass unemployment.
> I got my home insurance renewal asking for 25% more with the exact same coverage amounts. Did something happen to justify these increases?

Climate change.
At night there is no corona, nothing to look at.
FWIW that's not even how Alexa or Google Assistant work. Both listen locally for the wake word with onboard processing, and only when they recognize it do they send the audio stream to the server to fully interpret.

You can test this in a couple ways: they'll respond to their wake word when the internet is down (but have an error response). You can also look at the outbound data and see they're not sending continuous traffic.

Not to say with the proprietary products that they couldn't sneakily change this on the fly and record everything, maybe even turning it on for a specific device or account.
This implementation uses unsafe. You can write a linked list in safe rust (e.g. using Rc), but it probably wouldn't resemble the one you write in C.

In practice, a little unsafe is usually fine. I only bring it up since the article is about translating to safe rust.
This just isn't true we still need wally and Dilbert the pointy haired boss isn't going to be doing anyones job with chatgpt 5 you are going to be doing more with it.
I created a simple tool to play with the optimal bet size on v0. Interesting.

https://v0.dev/chat/1u6efMupysC?b=b_sxkDz7R6crr&p=0