skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
kinda interesting, every single CS person (especially phds) when talking about reasoning are unable to concisely quantify, enumerate, qualify, or define reasoning.

people with (high) intelligence talking and building (artificial) intelligence but never able to convincingly explain aspects of intelligence. just often talk ambiguously and circularly around it.

what are we humans getting ourselves into inventing skynet :wink.

its been an ongoing pet project to tackle reasoning, but i cant answer your question with regards to llms.
This might be because they are referencing single step, and I do not think o1 is single step.
> how is this a plateau since gpt-4? this is significantly better

Significantly better at what? A benchmark? That isn't necessarily progress. Many report preferring gpt-4 to the newer o1 models with hidden text. Hidden text makes the model more reliable, but more reliable is bad if it is reliably wrong at something since then you can't ask it over and over to find what you want.

I don't feel it is significantly smarter, it is more like having the same dumb person spend more thinking than the model getting smarter.
It varies by a lot of factors but it’s way less than half. Photovoltaic panels have around 10% capacity utilization vs 50-70% for a gas or nuke plant.
Wow, that's... really gross. The wings, not the hunting.

I knew squirrels would eat meat opportunistically but I wasn't aware that whole populations hunted particular animals systematically.
Or maybe the target audience that watches 12 launch videos in the morning are genuninely excited about the new model. The intended it to be a preview of something to look forward to.

What a weird way to react to this.
I imagine this is only a problem if one of your tires is low. It seems to reset itself in between trips and then takes a while to come back on. It's obviously not the TPMS Sensor in the wheel since it will be an over-the-air update. Pre 2007, vehicles didn't even require it.
Where is the plateau? Chatgtp 4 was ~0% in ARC-AGI. 4o was 5%. This model literally solved it with a score higher than the 85% of the average human.
And let’s not forget the unbelievable 25% in frontier math, where all the most brilliant mathematicians in the world cannot solve by themselves a lot of the problems. We are speaking about cutting edge math research problems that are out of reach from practically everyone.
You will get a rude awakening if you call this unbelievable advancement a “plateau”.
That poor package server getting 39 simultaneous pulls at the same time from one user.
when Bill Cosby was on trial for raping many women, the media also did not mention that he once cut grass for his elderly neighbour
They’ll have to figure out how to give people money so there can keep being consumers.
Frontiers of Entrepreneurship Research
O3 is multiple orders of magnitude more expensive to realize a marginal performance gain. You could hire 50 full time PhDs for the cost of using O3. You're witnessing the blowoff top of the scaling hype bubble.
Cognitive load is what matters [Programming]
When I got my fancy 1.6 GB harddisk I used `subst R: .\cd` to run my games needing the CD in the drive from a directory on the harddrive instead. Boy did load times improve a ton.
Did you read the article at all? We’re definitely not plateauing.
Community to fork Puppet, unhappy with Perforce changes to open-source project
And Hinkley, and San Bruno, and Santa Rosa, and elsewhere in Sonoma County, and a few billion in stock buybacks, another few billion in dividends, another few hundred million in executive bonuses, etc., etc., etc.

Buying off the guy doing research into hexavalent chromium wasn't cheap either. Nor was keeping Willie Brown on their payroll.
My favorite program in DOS was smartdrv.exe. I know it’s much more late addition, but it was a game-changer for these slow hard drives. Even a tiny cache size (I believe I tried kilobytes range) sped up things like 10-20x.

Even windows 3.x and 95 (surpisingly) ran faster with smartdrv preloaded. 95’s default cache for some reason was worse than smartdrv and literally produced harder sounds on my hdds.

The second favorite was a TSR NG viewer, can’t remember the name.
How do you protect from compounding errors?
I would suggest to stop trying to predict the future, and carry on as normal... There is no way to really predict how AI will pan out. There always has been a trade off of being a generalist vs specialist. Probably good to try to be both. If something actually happens that require us to adapt we can figure it out then.
I like some of these, but things like find/replace are context sensitive.

If foo.bar and baz.bar got changed to foo.steamedhams and baz.steamedhams, one of those could be a mistake caused by not setting up your replacement regex right.
I totally believe this, but now I want to check my assumption. Can anyone offer pointers to supporting evidence or research on it? Thanks
I don't care about benchmarks. O1 ranks higher than Claude on "benchmarks" but performs worse on particular real life coding situations. I'll judge the model myself by how useful/correct it is for my tasks rather than a hypothetical benchmarks.
And likewise child porn trade/child trafficking is a nagging problem on social media platforms. Stereotyping is rarely illuminating.
buy bitcoin.

when the last job has been automated away, millions of AIs globally will do commerce with each other and they will use bitcoin to pay each other.

as long as the human race (including AIs) produces new goods and services, the purchasing power of bitcoin will go up, indefinitely. even more so once we unlock new industries in space (settlements on the Moon and Mars, asteroid mining etc).

The only thing that can make a dent into bitcoin's purchasing power would be all out global war where humanity destroys more than it creates.

The only other alternative is UBI, which is Communism and eternal slavery for the entire human race except the 0.0001% who run the show.

Chose wisely.
The console processor was an LSI-11, a PDP-11 on a chip. It hung off the inside of one of the cabinet doors. It was responsible for booting the 780 and also gave VMS access to its own 8″ floppy drive, which had a habit of overheating.

The 750 was later technology, IIRC MOSFET. It also lacked the 780’s “compatibility mode”, which allowed VMS to run 16 bit RSX-11 executables by implementing the PDP-11 instruction set in addition to the 32 bit VAX one, and could boot without a console processor. If you didn’t need all the users on one machine, the 750 was cheaper per user.
Marc Brooker @mjb
https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=mjb
What I keep telling people is, if it becomes possible for one person or a handful of people to build and maintain a Google scale company, and my job gets eliminated as a result, then I’m going to go out and build a Google scale company.

There’s an incredibly massive amount of stuff the world needs. You probably live in a rich country, but I doubt you are lacking for want. There are billionaires who want things that don’t exist yet. And, of course, there are billions of regular folks who want some of the basics.

So long as you can imagine a better world, there will be work for you to do. New tools like AGI will just make it more accessible for you to build your better future.
Capital vs labor is fighting the last war.

AGI can replace capitalists just as much as laborers.
The best AI on this graph costs 50000% more than a stem graduate to complete the tasks and even then has an error rate that is 1000% higher than the humans???
Self-learning

That's exactly what this particular benchmark requires.
Discussion (75 points, 4 days ago, 19 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42437070
https://search.f-droid.org/?q=grayjay&lang=en

> It looks like F-Droid does not have any apps matching your search string "grayjay"

You're using a third-party repo that allows proprietary apps. The real F-Droid only allows FOSS ones.
Is it going to fall significantly for data centers? Industrial policy for consumer power is different from subsidizing it for data centers and if you own grid infrastructure why would you tank the price by putting up massive amounts of capital?
Ah. It would show up in your repo's metadata if it were in the root directory.
> If you can reason and you can do trial and error

Trial and error requires a judge to determine if there was an error. To do trial and error for general tasks you need a general judge, and it needs to be good in order to get intelligent results. All examples of successful AI you see have human judges or human programmed narrow judges. Chess AI training is an example where we have a human programmed judge, but for most tasks not even humans can code up a good judge.
I'll start worrying about AGI once I'm convinced there's such a thing as GI.
I had a weird security alert on my Google account the other night after trying to do a "Sign in with Google" to a service I've used for years. Trying to view my account/security info kept redirecting me to a page instructing me on how to clear cookies.

I clicked support and was able to get a call right away. But I pay $20/year for Google One.
Anyone using this AI workstation for coding?
Zba extension (mandatory in RVA23 profile) provides `sh{1,2,3}add rd, rs1, rs2` ie `rd = rs1 << {1,2,3} + rs2`, so a fusion with a subsequent load from `rd` would only require fusing two instructions.
The guide to holding world class dinner parties
I graduated high school in '02 and everyone assured me that all tech jobs were being sent to India. "Don't study CS," they said. Thankfully I didn't listen.

Either this is the dawn of something bigger than the industrial revolution or you'll have ample career opportunity. Understanding how things work and how people work is a powerful combination.
What they’ve proven here is that it can be done.

Now they just have to make it cheap.

Tell me, what has this industry been good at since its birth? Driving down the cost of compute and making things more efficient.

Are you seriously going to assume that won’t happen here?
Breached = remote control of device, bypass all vendor and owner security policy, and exfiltration of non-public data.
Not being able to send an email or believing the world is flat it’s not a sign of intelligence, I’d rather say it’s more about culture or being more or less scholarized. Your mom or coworker still can do stuff instinctively that is outperforming every algorithm out there and still unexplained how we do it. We still have no idea what intelligence is
Where do you think Google would rank its own support, help, etc., contact pages and info if not at the top of searches like the ones you mentioned?
Infrastructure for gov cloud is another beast and might make a fun case study
“Objective benchmarks are useless, let’s argue about which one works better for me personally.”
I thought o1 was a fine-tune of GPT-4o. I don't think o3 is though. Likely using the same techniques on what would have been the "GPT-5" base model.
These tests are meaningless until
You show them doing mundane tasks
This! This is what I’ve seen at my companies and is super salient to today’s real life work ~
Can someone explain, apart from the license, what is the main differentiating factor between this and excalidraw?
Have you ever answered a robocall, and the first thing they ask is "Can you hear me OK?" or "My Bluetooth is acting up. Can you hear me?"

They want to record your voice, saying "yes."

I always say "I can hear you." I never say "yes," or anything like that, during the short time I'm on the line with them.

However, that is probably not valid, anymore, because they just need to record a fairly short segment of your voice, to generate a deepfake.
> What they’ve proven here is that it can be done.

No they haven't, these results do not generalize, as mentioned in the article:

"Furthermore, early data points suggest that the upcoming ARC-AGI-2 benchmark will still pose a significant challenge to o3, potentially reducing its score to under 30% even at high compute"

Meaning, they haven't solved AGI, and the task itself do not represent programming well, these model do not perform that well on engineering benchmarks.
I mean going from 10% to 85% doesn’t seem like a 0.1% improvement
Yes but it’s different this time. LLMs are a general solution to the automation of anything that can be controlled by a computer. You can’t just move from drawing ICs to CAD, because the AI can do that too. AI can write code. It can do management. It can even do diplomacy. What it can’t do on its own are the things computers can’t control yet. It has also shown little interest so far in jockying for social status. The AI labs are trying their hardest to at least keep the politics around for humans to do, so you have that to look forward to.
Yes, that's exactly what I'm implying, otherwise they would have done it a long time ago, given that the fundamental transformer architecture hasn't changed since 2017. This bubble is like watching first year CS students trying to brute force homework problems.
Bitcoin is a horrible currency. Its a fun proof of concept but not a scalable payment solution. Currency needs to be stable and cheap to transfer.
Most herbivores I’m aware of will at least occasionally eat meat or insects. Even grazers.

I would be kind of surprised if there’s any “true and pure” herbivorous vertebrate.

Meat is rich in nutrients that even herbivores need and is difficult to get entirely from plants.

Vegans are the anomaly.
So then, $1.6B of liability to the driver of the RV at the Carr fire, and a few thousand to the Colorado RV driver? For the exact same error in both cases?

Legally, maybe you are right. I honestly don't know. It doesn't seem right to me though.
Also the folks at a company like render, railway, or even supabase might be fascinating - what it takes to write an infra abstraction at scale
Don't forget iPad keyboards! That's a whole other level of overload.
Teenagers can fairly easily have credit cards in the US and Canada. I had my first credit card at 15. They can also have debit cards from childhood.
This is an argument over the accuracy of georeferencing IP addresses and in my experience it is adequate for my needs.
PG&E is a terrible example since the rates are so high.
2024 Recap
Online Safety Act Notes for Small Sites
Agreed. I think what really makes them alien is everything else about them besides intelligence. Namely, no emotional/physiological grounding in empathy, shame, pride, and love (on the positive side) or hatred (negative side).
Imagine graduating in architecture or mechanical engineering around the time PCs just came out. There were people who probably panicked.

But the arc of time intersects quite nicely with your skills if you steer it over time.

Predicting it or worrying about it does nothing.
It is, although I was still a little surprised it's on the order of a minute to go NYC to Tokyo at that speed. My intuition was it would be much less time.
I think this is the same line of thinking that lead to the Bitcoin lightning network.
I always tell people to take control of the situation and stay calm. If “Google” or someone contacts you about a problem, simply hang up or ignore the email, look up the company’s info online, and contact the company directly.
I suppose now that we have the technology to automatically solve coloured grid puzzles, mechanical engineering is obsolete.
> There are millions of examples of usage of the word red - none of them communicate the subjective experience of seeing red.

The trick is that all of them provide perspectives and the model composes those perspectives in the embedding space. "Red" is related to apples but also to communism in its internal vector space. And it also related to all situations where humans used the word "red" and expressed emotions, encoding emotional valence as well.

I think confusion comes from how we expect models to represent things. People think models represent the thing in itself, but instead they represent how each thing relates to other things. Thus inputs are both content and reference, they have dual status, and are able to create this semantic space from themselves without external reference.

In a relational system you don't need access to the object in itself, just how its perception relates to other perceptions.
Please stop it calling AGI, we don’t even know or agree universally what that should actually mean. How far did we get with hype calling a lossy probabilistic compressor firing slowly at us words AGI? That’s a real bummer to me
> Yes, that's exactly what I'm implying, otherwise they would have done it a long time ago

They’ve been doing it literally this entire time. O3-mini according to the charts they’ve released is less expensive than o1 but performs better.

Costs have been falling to run these models precipitously.
For details beyond Bloomberg's three paragraph summary:

https://www.tantraanalyst.com/ta/qualcomm-vs-arm-trial-day-1...

> Arm’s opening statement.. presented with a soft, almost victim-like demeanor. Qualcomm’s statement was more assertive and included many strong facts (e.g., Arm internal communications saying Qualcomm has “Bombproof” ALA). Testimonials were quite informative and revealed many interesting facts, some rumored and others unknown (e.g. Arm considered a fully vertically integrated approach).

https://www.tantraanalyst.com/ta/qualcomm-vs-arm-trial-day-2...

> The most important discussion was whether processor design and RTL are a derivative of Arm’s technology.. This assertion of derivative seems an overreach and should put a chill down the spine of every Arm customer, especially the ones that have ALA, which include NXP, Infineon, TI, ST Micro, Microchip, Broadcom, Nvidia, MediaTek, Qualcomm, Apple, and Marvell. No matter how much they innovate in processor design and architecture, it can all be deemed Arm’s derivative and, hence, its technology.

https://www.tantraanalyst.com/ta/qualcomm-vs-arm-trial-day-3...

https://www.tantraanalyst.com/ta/qualcomm-vs-arm-trial-day-4...
(Shrug) AI has been better than humans at solving CAPTCHAs for a LONG time. As the sibling points out, they're just a waste of time and electricity at this point.
Exciting times, these robots and AI could mean we are on the cusp of Androids. Would be great for everything from work, exploration, and war.

I wonder if Elon plans to send 10's of 1000's to Mars ? They could build out the infrastructure and get it ready for human arrival.
> Turing test was surpassed years ago

I keep seeing this thrown around, but did anyone actually like go out and do this? I feel like I could distinguish between an AI (even the latest models) and a person after a text-only back and forth conversation.
I know, right? But that's the bias I saw. It was unenlightened.
Favorited and starred! I wonder if the real power of this could be in integrating large low cost sensor networks? I think with things like video and audio it might make more sense to bump up to a single board Linux board - but maybe the AI could help parse or create notifications based on sensor readings, and push back events to the real world (lights, solenoids, etc)

I think it would help to either have a freertos example, or if you want to go real crazy create a zephyr integration! It would be a lot of fun to work on AI and microcontroller combination - what a cool niche!
Does it necessarily require a judge? Many tasks have objective success criteria. A basketball goes through the hoop or it doesn’t.

If the success criteria are inherently subjective, like music or art, you can use human reactions as the criteria, while also using reasoning to infer principles about what is or isn’t received well. That’s what humans do.
Fentanyl contamination/adulteration seems like a sufficient reason to not use any street drug active in greater than microgram quantities. (If I were a parent, I'd probably prefer to give "good" drugs to a kid who was unavoidably going to do them vs. trust their friends/etc. to find safe ones, although there's obviously horrible moral hazard there. I have no idea what the right answer is.)
Because decadence and social degeneracy – especially inside tech – deserves to be mocked ruthlessly.
Guys, its already happening. I recently got laid off due to AI taking over my jobs.
I would agree if the cost of AI compute over performance hasn't been dropping by more than 90-99% per year since GPT3 launched.

This type of compute will be cheaper than Claude 3.5 within 2 years.

It's kinda nuts. Give these models tools to navigate and build on the internet and they'll be building companies and selling services.
A file is a stream of symbols encoded by bits according to some format. It’s pretty much 1D. It would be susprising that LLM couldn’t extract information from a file or a data stream.
Ironically mad cow is one of the rare transmissible diseases that “can just happen” with no external causative agent!

It’s just a misfolding of a protein that starts a chain reaction of similarly misfolded proteins.
In the context of H5N1, this gives some new insight of the likelihood of the virus jumping species. Birds are everywhere, squirrels in urban environments moreso.
That's a very static view of the affairs. Once you have a master AI, at a minimum you can use it to train cheaper slightly less capable AIs. At the other end the master AI can train to become even smarter.
The sensors also use CR2032 disposable Lithium batteries, like those used on PC motherboards for the CMOS settings, but it's molded inside the plastic of the sensor so when the battery runs low the entire sensor has to be replaced. And your tire place forgets even though you specifically asked them to put it on the work order, and you need to go another full tire lifespan with TPMS lights on.
Seems to be https://jdsemrau.substack.com/, also in their bio.
Look, that rabbit's got a vicious streak a mile wide!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rabbit_of_Caerbannog
> I wonder if the best solution lies somewhere in the vicinity of "fork but only copy a small part of the address space"

I think the best solution would be if every relevant syscall took a process handle, so you can run it either in the current process or in a non-started child process

That's not going to happen on Linux because it would be a radical change to the Linux syscall API. But if one were designing an OS from scratch today I think it would make sense to do things that way.
and I hate this, this is super inconvinient when auto-updates are enabled. I am glad Chrome authors went out of the way to fix this.

(The other option would be to convince Linux distributions to implement special updater, but I am sure implementing zygote thong was easier)
> if it puts you out of work and automates away all other alternatives, then you’ll be witnessing the greatest economic shift in human history

This is my view but with a less positive spin: you are not going to be the only person whose livelihood will be destroyed. It's going to be bad for a lot of people.

So at least you'll have a lot of company.
Not an issue because exceyt for a few windows or apple machines everthing arm is compiled and odds are they have the source. Give our ee a good risc-v and a couple years latter we will have our stuff rebult for that cpu