skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
"Hybrid WW3" continues. Russia advances most everywhere in the proxy politics space (perhaps paradoxically except Syria.)

Western economies continue on their troll-induced march to self-implosion. The defamation attacks on their Comparative Advantage industries intensify, particularly:

- Non-Musk Big Tech / AI

- Non-Musk aerospace (=> Boeing)

- Wall Street / non-crypto finance

- Non-Musk automotive

- Hollywood

Immigration is halted or reversed in most Western countries, halving long-term GDP growth.

Hard to say whether the H5N1 flu will turn into another pandemic.
>its private for outsiders, but it was developed in "collaboration" with OAI, and GPT was tested in the past on it, so they have it in logs somewhere.

They have logs of the questions probably but that's not enough. Frontier Math isn't something that can be fully solved without gathering top experts at multiple disciplines. Even Tao says he only knows who to ask for the most difficult set.

Basically, what you're suggesting at least with this benchmark in particular is far more difficult than you're implying.

>If you think this entire conversation is pointless, then why do you continue?

There's no point arguing about how efficient the models are being (the original point) if you won't even accept the results of the benchmarks. Why i'm continuing ? For now, it's only polite to clarify.
The siren call of proving someone wrong on the internet strikes again.
Sadly, I have to say you are the most on point here.
03 is actually orthogonal to AGI and ASI in a cartesian sense. My SAS startup led multiple qualified teams where our RAG implementations on synthetic data originated positive inference in line with the literature (1).
(1) Sparks of AGI paper
2025 will be a year of chaos, uncertainty, and a lot of unhappiness across the world.

The US election gives Donald Trump a second act, with limited but real support of both houses and a lock on the Supreme Court.

He in turn has nominated quite the cast of characters.

Meanwhile governments around the world are teetering or falling. A global trade war is likely. Shooting wars like Ukraine and Israel? Who knows.

Mass shooting events are probably going to go up. Prices certainly will.

The release of hundreds of thousands of social media and “FAANG” developers back into regular society without their massive pay checks will continue to have positive effects on tech. The rest of the world will be able to afford to hire developers again :-)

AI will continue to be a vaudeville act, bright lights and pretty girls and loud noises won’t distract from the fact that generative AI is ultimately a dead end.

The new administration will do something incredibly dumb with cryptocurrency. Multiple cabinet members will be indicted before 2026 is here.

Finally, Trump will have influenced enough leaders to allow him to change his middle name from John to Johne, he will use this technicality to run for a third term as “New Trump”, will win and enshrine the middle name loophole into history.
AI needs for efficiency will push computing outside of silicon.

More analog computing metaphors everywhere.

UX / UI might evaporate significantly
What do you hope to accomplish by making random false statements?
Roughly in order of FOMO

iMessage,
AirDrop,
Find My Friends,
AirPlay,
WiFi password sharing,
iPhoto sharing
I finally get adopted by a nice family of sentient pizzas in 2025.

https://brynet.ca/wallofpizza.html
If it were Starlink it would get a mention!
If there were a widely supported standard for pagination in RSS, then it would make sense to limit the number of posts. As there isn't, sending 500kB seems eminently reasonable, and RSS readers that send conditional requests are fine.
Robert Frost is one of those poets where if I think I understand the poem after one reading, I'm often wrong. This is a great poem, but I don't think it has a particularly hidden meaning. Am I mistaken?
Global Trends 2025 (2008) [pdf]
The forum has it not because it's common knowledge but because people with top secret clearance happen to frequent the forum and like to talk about/boast about the tech they work with.

An enemy state's ability to get an agent deep inside the military, or to entice someone already inside to turn traitor, or to hack through the layers of security to extract data over the network is largely disconnected from an insider's desire to chat about what they did at work.
Even in a small-ish city, the meanings of "drinks" and "drinking" can vary enormously, depending on the group of people.

I had a "burgers and beers" meal at a pub with some friends on Saturday. Our maximum alcohol consumption was 1 beer; minimum was 0. Several decades ago, I might have had a second beer. Maybe a dessert, too.
That article leaves out a lot of result that should have been cited, but they run counter to his narrative and would make the story sell less.

The last big CBO analysis on results of min wage does a better job summarizing all the literature. They also made a nice tool to visualize results https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55681

The results are pretty much what one should expect.
I wouldn’t be surprised if their legal theory is that they will win the rights to Mangione’s likeness in a future civil suit. If a judge is willing to claim to believe that, then I could see an injunction being issued.

Does that sound ridiculous? Sure, but we’ve seen some absolutely crazy stretching of the law these past few years.
Other than we don't tell it how to get the right answer, or understand how it eventually computes correct answers?
Wow, thanks for your valuable contribution to the conversation!
Dude, that’s horrible. I’m sorry you have to deal with that.
I'm not passing judgment one way or another regarding consumer protections here, though I personally find EU more draconian than my preferences and whether they're effective is up for debate (GDPR is a hilarious failure, USB-C mandate is a resounding success).

Though, I think that when someone deliberately chooses to buy a luxury good (much less one that costs a 4 figure sum) they lose some of their standing to complain. Kind of like how I don't complain about my beer because someone will yell at me that I just shouldn't buy the beer if I don't like it and he would be absolutely right.
Yes, on the basis of https://www.pymnts.com/artificial-intelligence-2/2024/ai-com...
That almost seems counterintuitive about the sun, since I would think as a heavy thing, objects would want to fall into it... But I understand orbits are faster near it. Gotta read up on that

Moon is an idea far away from unadvanced people

Fair point on the last bit
Why would I expect a software project to ship on time?
> the people it works the best on are also most susceptible to compromising secrets due to their deep seated insecurities

Can you elaborate on that? Who are the people it works best on? How are deep seated insecurities related to propensity to revealing secrets? Is this just an online thing or is this type of person more likely to reveal secrets in an intelligence operation scenario? How do you know all of this?
Maybe Apple charged more, but for a different item? “Maybe there are more things…” indeed.
These options exist?? That seems like a better option for wallets.
My dad thinks manic episodes are demon possession.

If antipsychotics fix the problem, was it really demon-possession?
The last four years?

ELIZA 2.0
After 3+ years, the case for "AI startups" could then begin to weaken, but integration of AI in most startups should then remain central to their existence.
No one claimed that. Can you do better than argue against a strawman?
It’s a pretty easy option when I’m selling calls with infinity expiration at zero strike.

I’m still selling them. That’s how utterly convinced that this particular mix of my former colleagues are incapable of this thing I am.

They’ll call something GPT-5, but it won’t like obsolete physicists or even good hackers. None of the shit sama says.

Even o1 sucks.
The person who last pushed.

jj force pushes by default, but unlike git, the force push defaults to the "safe" variant (similar to git's --force-with-lease). So you won't accidently overwrite someone else's changes with your force push.
Church?

I’m a Christian and have always been so thankful for the rich community and sense of shared values and mission I experience with my church.
I agree! I actually wish crates.io or even the Rust language as a whole would embrace the "sans-io" mindset. Crates which are "sans-io should simply be "no_std + alloc". That would suffice for 99% of crates. Ideally, to be fully "sans-io", you'd only be able to depend on other "sans-io" cases.
This seems so insane, is anyone actually doing the work to provide an alternative to CUDA? Maybe Google?
Given the hype in AI and crypto, I unfortunately predict that there will be widespread layoffs in 2025.

Usually I had a habit of getting my predictions on point, now I hope this prediction is wrong since we all know most predictions in this thread will be wrong; just like last year.
Not to mention a top-level exception system is a great place to put the db transaction rollback so everything’s always undone (some exceptions apply)
Only if the new features violate the obligations of a DMA gatekeeper. 120Hz screen is fine, 120Hz screen that runs at 60Hz for all 3rd party apps is not.

It enhances the incentive to innovate for smaller companies who would otherwise be locked out by Apple. This ruling for instance will allow smartwatch mfgs to compete with Apple on a level playing field for iOS users' money.
FYI this is basically what Redis does (which does not support concurrent writes or reads afaik), and that still scales quite a lot.
Back in 2019 I gave a conference talk in which I made four predictions about Web development in 2020 and 2025:

https://youtu.be/okrB3aJtUaw

I feel confident at least two of the predictions (about TypeScript and npm) are going to be true at the end of 2025. I feel less confident about the predictions about WebAssembly and compile-to-JS languages.
The font point aside, which I do agree with, the rest of your comment sounds very subjective to me.

I too prefer more distinction between different UI elements than is fashionable in recent years - and, make no mistake, that’s all it is: fashion - and don’t see why higher resolutions preclude that. That’s not to say we have to ape what was done 10 or 15 years ago, but we can certainly take things in a more interesting and usable direction than we’ve chosen to do since around 2013.

I find myself clicking the wrong window by mistake a lot more frequently than I did back in the day due, I think, to current design trends.
It ought to be the law that approved claims should be backdated to when the initial claim was made. UHC pulled this exact trick on me, denying something that ought to have been approved in order to push the date into the new plan year with a reset deductible.
Probably asked an "AI"
To the extent that it depends not on the code or its behavior, but on the interpreter that runs it, I suppose so. If you write the exact same code with the exact same meaning, I'm not sure why it matters.
Has a UHC public channel come out refuting it?
Coming up next: "We bought AMD stock on the open market and used it to compensate AMD engineers".
Idk large corps are already getting comfy using OpenAI (Microsoft) I dont see them shifting cause they are all inept at doing things themselves. They need a lot of handholding which is why Microsoft is still alive.
This article was written about the same time when I interviewed with this group. I was very enthusiastic about Haskell but a senior Haskell lead told me I needed much more Haskell experience but I was otherwise an interesting candidate and he offered to put me in touch with the other FB team doing a similar function, but in Java. I was only interested in learning Haskell, so nothing happened. Still it was very cool to be able to talk with a couple of famous Haskell folks.
Book clubs and other discussion-focused groups that are open to new attendees often put up a "flag" so the new people can find the group in a public place. It's just not a literal flag, but some other kind of sign.

If the group's activity is easily visible and distinct from what everyone else is doing, it's not necessary.
Or because of the ageing population they will have a life threatening incident. Which Medicare will fail to cover due to its budget being cut and private health insurance companies refusing to pay for procedures the Doctor orders.

And so I would expect to see medical bankruptcy being far more common.
Facebook and Google both had a bunch of brilliant people. And in 2016-2017 some of the real legends worked at OpenAI.

And then Sam got control and all the high profile people bounced, and it’s a pretty grim residue that either lasted or rushed in.

I know these people, a lot of them personally, and they are not the person you trust with fucking anything.
Let's pretend it is 1940

Person 1: rockets could be a method of putting things into Earth orbit

Person 2: rockets cannot get things into orbit because they use a chemical reaction which causes an equal and opposite force reaction to produce thrust'

Does person 1 have the burden of proof that rockets can be used to put things in orbit? Sure, but that doesn't make the reasoning used by person 2 valid to explain why person 1 is wrong.

BTW thanks for adding an entire chapter to your comment in edit so it looks like I am ignoring most of it. What I replied to was one sentence that said 'the burden of proof is on you'. Though it really doesn't make much difference because you are doing the same thing but more verbose this time.

None of the things you mentioned preclude intelligence. You are telling us again how it operates but not why that operation is restrictive in producing an intelligent output. There is no law that saws that intelligence requires anything but a large amount of data and computation. If you can show why these things are not sufficient, I am eager to read about it. A logical explanation would be great, step by step please, without making any grand unproven assumptions.

In response to the person below... again, whether or not person 1 is right or wrong does not make person 2's argument valid.
Many predictions here are about social media. My prediction is that the first amendment rights they've won themselves are going to bite them in 2025.

The first ruling has already happened: https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/national-international/t...

What this ruling means is that the algorithm is a expression of the first amendment from the platform itself. If the algorithm does harmful things it causes first party liability.

My prediction is that the administration will not do much to the social media giants but class action lawsuits will.
How’s Apache 2?

https://github.com/JetBrains/kotlin
You do, which makes it very nice to not have to answer questions about the physical security of your servers.
1. AMD always had a lot of hype already priced in, it is no different with AI.

2. AMD has always shipped a bad software stack, it is no different with AI.
> I'm not passing judgment one way or another regarding consumer protections here, though I personally find EU more draconian than my preferences and whether they're effective is up for debate (GDPR is a hilarious failure, USB-C mandate is a resounding success).

The hell are you talking about GPDR being a resounding failure? It's been pretty awesome. I love bills like that.
There are lots of papers that do this
Insurance company employees have among the lowest productivity to pay ratios of nearly any industry. They harbor a workforce that is low skill, low effort, and high profit, largely via nepotistic hiring.
The issue isn’t performing the specific addition. Rather, you’re asking o1 to take n-bits of data and combine them according to some set of rules. Isn’t that what these models are supposed to excel at, following instructions? Binary addition is interesting because the memorization space grows at 2^n, which is impossible to memorize for moderate values of n.
we aim to tackle the challenges of scalability, usability, and proof automation in the Lean proof assistant https://lean-lang.org/

Yep. Truly a mystery.
This is the exact type of victim mentality that we don't need. There are absolute insane amounts of people calling out Gelsinger by name and blaming solely him for failures at Intel.
I'm sure it is super cool and immediately comprehensible for an independent project. I'm actually really fascinated by programming languages like APL that take it even further, I'd like to try some of those out but I don't have a great fit for a project to use with them.

But all I can think of when I see custom operators professionally is how much of a nightmare it would be the second one has to onboard a junior developer onto the project.
I think successful groups almost always have a core of devoted people who will show up on time, rain or shine, enough for the event to succeed. If you were alone for hours waiting for other people, that was a really bad sign IMO.
Binary addition is O(n)
I have no horse in this race, but there's a long history of corporations egregiously abusing DMCA, so it feels within the realm of possibility unless you have specific evidence to the contrary
And yet it disappeared off Hacker News almost immediately. I kind-of feel lucky to have stumbled upon it, what a gem of a video.
It works best on young men who are socially, romantically and sometimes financially struggling. It gives them a sense of power and belonging to the state, something greater than themselves. The same mechanisms that make this propaganda successful can be used (willingly or organically) to cause the effected individual to take other actions. Here someone wanted to brag so they leaked secrets online. One would argue people like Timothy McVeigh were similar, with much different results.

Further reading:

- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Bernays

- https://archive.org/details/aberrationinhear0000pain/page/70...
Open chord shapes are just the barre shapes but the nut becomes fret zero that's barred. Looking at it this way it's easy to see why they can be moved around the neck. The shape remains the same because the relationship of the strings and the notes on them remain the same. Like root-3rd-5th would remain the same relationship only with a different tone combination.

By the way I think the most difficult thing about CAGED is that it's way too overhyped. It promises too much (scales?) but delivers too little. (Doesn't even have minors)
At this point, they ought to ask if you play War Thunder on the SF-86.
It's very hard to have any compassion for architects of this company's system.
Their CEO was just murdered in cold blood and social media rejoiced. I don't think there's anything for them to gain by speaking up about any of this in public right now. Sometimes the best thing to do is shut up and let things settle down.
> Outright denying people's bad experience with Matrix has also been a sad part in Matrix marketing for so long

I think if you look at my comments on HN you'll see me spending most of my time trying to explain or apologise for people's bad experience, but ymmv.

> Unfortunately, I don't have experience with Element X, since my provider doesn't support it yet, so I can't confirm or deny that testimonial, but my exceptations are not high.

Shame, you're missing out.
Uh... sure, maybe during the initial swelling. But that's temporarily rendered unrecognizable.

If you caused enough damage such that someone could not later be recognized, I wonder why you are not in prison.
Interesting idea. The concept of The Singularity would seem to go against this, but I do feel that seems unlikely and that a gradual transition is more likely.

However, is that AGI, or is it just ubiquitous AI? I’d agree that, like self driving cars, we’re going to experience a decade or so transition into AI being everywhere. But is it AGI when we get there? I think it’ll be many different systems each providing an aspect of AGI that together could be argued to be AGI, but in reality it’ll be more like the internet, just a bunch of non-AGI models talking to each other to achieve things with human input.

I don’t think it’s truly AGI until there’s one thinking entity able to perform at or above human level in everything.
I don’t want to belittle a condition that is clearly real, but if it helps I think you’re a 100% normal human.

All people have neurotic moments (That someone is looking at them, or believe in some mild conspiracy or whatever). The people who say they aren’t are lying or good at hiding it.

Someone close to me and typically pretty rational has one where she thought bugs were in her bed after repeatedly bug bombing the house. Half the State of New Jersey think we are in the midst of a drone invasion. Thank god we invented the scientific method and other tools for reasoning that can compensate for our flawed perceptions.
I disagree. I would hate to wrangle a borrow checker just to write a simple script.
Historical discussions about Common Lisp [1981-89]
These seem like first person source, early-Wikipedia arguments. (Before citation guidelines came into full effect)

I.e. How do you correct something that you know to be wrong, when you can't point to something public?

Except, in the case of classified military technical specs -- just let it be wrong.
No. But it won't stop the industry from trying.

LLMs have no real sense of truth or hard evidence of logical thinking. Even the latest models still trip up on very basic tasks. I think they can be very entertaining, sure, but not practical for many applications.
Thanks for the tipp - I’ve been trying to volunteer at the refugee centre ON MY ROAD for months but my application is going nowhere. I’m not super old, just entered my sixth decade, but bogged down in parenting instead of socializing.

EDIT: Super Tipp, danke. Habe gleich zwei Treffpunkte in der Nähe gefunden und werde diese im neuen Jahr besuchen.
There's nothing to gain by trying to suppress the reaction they don't like?
The stereotypes are: English/British tourists are drunkard hooligans. American tourists are students or dumb rednecks but friendly.
A very good friend of mine is in some kind of severe psychosis right now. She's cut off all her friends and family. While she was still talking to us, she was still so paranoid she refused to even consider seeing a doctor, even though she knew she was on some kind of "never-ending acid trip" as she called it.

But she's still taking care of herself and not a danger to herself or others, so there's nothing we can right now. My big hope is that someday she'll get perspective on this like you have now.
I thought of the same film, and in the film (if I remember correctly) the John Nash character in the end even uses the same strategy to deal with the hallucinations. To paraphrase, he says something like, he sees them but he knows they are not real, and choses not to listen.

(Oh, and of course, am not saying this is the only strategy for dealing with psychosis, but it is just that it was also the first thing that came to mind when I read this article:)