skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Your second link seems to be fabricated. I'd guess it's an invention of AI. A survey of 100,000 people is extremely large, and would be quite expensive to administer, and its source as given as "PoliticsVideoChannel", a twitter account with 200,000 followers. There's no link to the survey. My guess is, if it's based on anything, the Twitter account ran a poll which got 100,000 votes. That's quite different than a survey of 100,000 New Yorkers.

The social media section gives quotes from several accounts that I don't think exist. Like, it's the only result is you search "@JusticeSeekerNYC".

Given you were talking about people being duped by a fake manifesto I am not sure why you'd share this link.
It's a decentralized network... the whole idea is removing the "you", isn't it?
I feel that one challenge this comparison space has is: Self-driving cars haven't made the leap yet to replace humans. In other words, saying AGI will arrive like self-driving cars have arrived is incorrectly concluding that self-driving cars have arrived, and thus it instead (maybe correctly, maybe not) asserts that, actually, neither will arrive.

This is especially concerning because many top minds in the industry have stated with high confidence that artificial intelligence will experience an intelligence "explosion", and we should be afraid of this (or, maybe, welcome it with open arms, depending on who you ask). So, actually, what we're being told to expect is being downgraded from "it'll happen quickly" to "it will happen slowly" to, as you say, "it'll happen similarly to how these other domains of computerized intelligence have replaced humans, which is to say, they haven't yet".

Point being: We've observed these systems ride a curve, and the linear extrapolation of that curve does seem to arrive, eventually, at human-replacing intelligence. But, what if it... doesn't? What if that curve is really an asymptote?
There is a depressing site, which keeps the ranking for Mallorca:

https://www.balcon.ing
> but if the burden were placed on RSS instead

That would be nice to have, but it's less realistic.

Some clients already speak proper HTTP, and others can too, with little modification. For modified RSS like this, you have to make a standard first, then push both servers and clients to use it.
Sounds like Facebook and I have the same interest, then.
The fact that people do it in the ordinary language, so you can click through to the operator definition and see immediately what it does, makes it a lot less taxing IMO. Even if the code is quite complex, figuring out what an actual function does is 10x easier than doing the same with a magic annotation, which is what you have to do in that situation in most other languages.
Well, kinda, but if you built a robot to efficiently mow lawns, it's still not going to be able to do the laundry.

I don't see how "when they can do something, they'll be able to do everything" can be true. We build robots that are specialised at specific roles, because it's massively more efficient to do that. A car-welding robot can weld cars together at a rate that a human can't match.

We could train an LLM to drive a Boston Dynamics kind of anthropomorphic robot to weld cars, but it will be more expensive and less efficient than the specialised car-welding robot, so why would we do that?
Yep. In principle you can examine the crates before you use them and pick ones that won’t ever expose you to that pitfall. In practice, of course, things are not always so ideal.

But at least if you end up with incompatible versions then the compiler will step in and prevent your program from compiling, instead of allowing it to crash mysteriously later on. It’s frustrating, but not half so frustrating as it could be.
Show HN: Generate Brand Logo with AI in Seconds
Two minutes of research would have saved you the embarrassment of making that comment.

> Formaldehyde is essential in human metabolism and is required for the synthesis of DNA and amino acids (the building blocks of protein). Therefore, all humans have detectable quantities of natural formaldehyde in their circulation (about 2.5 ug of formaldehyde per ml of blood). Assuming an average weight of a 2-month-old of 5 kg and an average blood volume of 85 ml per kg, the total quantity of formaldehyde found in an infant's circulation would be about 1.1 mg, a value about 1,500 times more than the amount an infant would be exposed to in any individual vaccine.

https://www.chop.edu/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-safety...

> While infants receive about 4.4 milligrams* of aluminum in the first six months of life from vaccines, they receive more than that in their diet. Breast-fed infants ingest about 7 milligrams, formula-fed infants ingest about 38 milligrams, and infants who are fed soy formula ingest almost 117 milligrams of aluminum during the first six months of life.

https://www.chop.edu/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-safety...
Political/General

Inflation creeps up with tariffs, but blue collar jobs and the economy 'boom.'

Deportation program and other things people worry about or get excited about gets tied up in courts and never happen.

Tech

Enshittification of all customer service accelerates as LLMs take over.

Lower wages for devs as too many seeking work put downward pressures.

Layoffs continue. Not because of AI, but because interest rates are still too high for a lot of companies.

Companies figure out how many engineers are out of work and getting desperate, and start laying off higher earners and replacing them with people who will do it for less.
> I absolutely promise you don't need to go to any school to learn the requisite skills to achieve a variety of complex things

> Not everybody is capable of actual engineering though, as engineers follow processes and measure things

So how is it that anyone can self learn anything but anyone can't follow processes and measure things? You just have different pet dogmas than the other guy. At least he didn't say you had lack of empathy to feel better.
Lately copilot has been giving me outright u correct information and when you tell it, it’ll admit it lied and give another incorrect answer. Not even that obscure of a question either. I have zero trust in it being able to generate anything more than bare bones boiler plate (and even then).

I also feel they’ve made responses fairly wordy to make it appear to know stuff.
First cases of countries passing legislation specifically to protect human workers from being replaced by AI.
My company does exactly what you're looking for.

https://www.dbos.dev

We even have a demo that includes a webhook:

https://github.com/dbos-inc/dbos-demo-apps/blob/main/python/...

We offer a serverless platform with state and workflows built in, and you can run any python code you want. You'll also only get charged when actual work is happening, not waiting.
> complete devotion to the task at hand.

Why would it have that? At some point on the path to AGI we might stumble on consciousness. If that happens, why would the machine want to work for us with complete devotion instead of working towards its own ends?
I am asking in good faith as someone who's been using internet forums for over 20 years.
An interesting prediction is one that is predictive of something impactful and correctly predicts something which is currently significantly under weighted by others.

Given this I'll say that 2025 is going to be a significant year geopolitically and economically for Western Europe. Social unrest is rising here, especially around the topic of immigration, and countries like France and the UK are currently on a path to fiscal crisis if we cannot get spending under control.

My prediction is that in 2025 Trump brings to implement more tariffs on China and these tariffs are met with relation by China. Europe tries to remain somewhat neutral, but under threat of tariffs themselves ultimately sides with the US against China resulting in retaliatory tariffs from China on Europe.

Inflation starts rising globally again, resulting in increased borrowing costs which triggers an economic crisis in Europe given recessionary growth and debt servicing costs spiking, ultimately forcing governments to make significant cuts in spending.

The social unrest this results in ultimately further amplifies the populist far-right in Europe, and for this reason 2025 will be looked back at as the year which triggered a meaningful change in the post-war political consensus.

I might be wrong. As someone living in Europe right now though I am worried. Things seem to be really breaking down on multiple fronts and it's not clear to me how things could just go back to normality at this point. Given where we are right now – especially now with the election of Trump – 2025 seems like the year something might finally give.
> zero consequences for anyone responsible

Who is responsible?

With Mangione, there is one person singularly and unambiguously responsible. That makes meting out punishment easy. With a hack, the hackers are obviously responsible. But we haven’t found them. After that, IT at UHC? Who? Are they civilly liable, or criminally?
I said a lack of regulation around businesses was the problem, and you misrepresented my point, claiming I said capitalism was the best thing ever. Hence the strawman.

The claim that capitalism is fundamentally failed is one that needs support, given that it is capitalist countries that have the highest quality of life and are highest on the happiness indices.
> Fußballrowdytum

https://glosbe.com/en/de/football%20hooliganism

rowdytum:

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/german-english/r...

rowdy:

english(-american) rowdy, origin unclear

hooligan (n.):

"thug; hoodlum," first found in British newspaper police-court reports in the summer of 1898, almost certainly from the variant form of the Irish surname Houlihan, which figured as a characteristic comic Irish name in music hall songs and newspapers of the 1880s and '90s.
I've bee thinking the same thing lately. Even if we don't get to AGI, LLMs have revolutionized the way I work. I can produce code and copy at superhuman speeds now. I love it. Honestly, if we never get to AGI and just have the LLMs, it's probably the best possible outcome as I don't think true AGI is going to be a good thing for humanity.
Could you help understand the importance of RL finetuning? What can it accomplish that regular finetuning can't? What's a use case for it?
It does feel like a large shift took place about 2-5 years ago.
If you understood TESCREAL, you wouldnt think this a good thing.
In the US, there is a large variety of high quality, local craft beers at every bar in the country alongside the standard beers like Guinness, etc., so its not a choice "do we serve the big brand beer or the craft beer."
Well, here's the interesting part - gpt2 has been writing news since well before gpt3 was launched. Remember when "news" started getting weirdly reptative? When just about any product had a review avaliable? When the amount of slop content just _exploded_? Thats when the ai colonization of the internet began.
I bet French people can't wait for their electric bills to halve overnight! (/sarcasm).

On a more serious note, EDF, France's suppliers sells their provision as 99.99% clean, which is not wrong, I guess, but a good selling point to their business.
I agree with the rest, but not necessarily investments collapsing. It seems to me that the incoming administration will be friendly to business, gutting consumer and environmental protections.

Assuming tarrifs happen, there will be price hikes. And if there are general price hikes it's easy (and sometimes necessary) to hike your own prices even if you're not directly affected. This will improve profits (at least in the short term).

So, I expect the stock market to do very well. The rich will get richer. The middle class will be pushed down.

But yeah, the 95% are about to get what they voted for.
> Throwing around terms like "murderer" and "terrorism" is a pure appeal to emotion

Not really. It’s intentional killing without colour of law: murder. It’s killing to send a political message: potentially terrorism. He’s been charged with both, so this is not meme-level everything I don’t like is violence.

> days where websites like Reddit are purely a playground for nerds with fringe belief are long, long past us

Yes, someone who thinks their internet echo chamber is right this time, despite its track record, is on the fringes.
So if you know someone you can get out of shit. We're in a privilege-based society.
Once you have AGI you use it to collect resources to cripple competitors and to build a snowball effect to make yourself unbeatable. 3 months of AGI is enough in the right hands to dominate the world economically.
> which only updated changed files

You pay for this with the inability to maintain instance state (even caches) and a glacially slow runtime. It's a tradeoff.
> There are plenty of groups that meet regularly.

Stammtisch can be used like that, but it can also mean the physical table ("Tisch" means table) where a specific group meets. Meaning, in some pubs, a table marked as such is effectively reserved only for this specific group of regulars. I think this is getting rarer, but I still see it from time to time.
* Solar energy will account for around 8% (give or take 1%?) of the worlds energy usage

* We'll see the worlds first trillionaire

* Bitcoin will reach $200k+, and remain largely stable around that price, at the end of 2025

* Generative AI for music will continue to improve substantially. I have a lack of imagination, but maybe something like on demand streaming services, maybe targeted to niche music genres (lo-fi, electronica, elevator/hold/office music)

* Generative AI for video will continue to improve substantially. The best I can come up with is that there will be a breakout indie film or music video that's produced from a skeleton crew relying heavily on generative AI video.

* LLMs will continue to improve substantially, being able to solve more and more complex tasks, like the Putnam exam and others. Research will continue to try and integrate LLMs into a toolchain to improve performance

* LLMs and other generative AI tasks will continue to become more and more accessible ($2.5k for a machine able to do fairly advanced training?)

* The cost of robots and other robotics will drop substantially, providing a reasonable bipedal option at $8k

* Twitter and Facebook will still be around, Bluesky will be no more, Mastodon will continue to be niche

* All the above will be used by people to invent and discover weird, wonderful and horrible things that I can't even imagine.
> The big question is about trends in AI investment and usage from "old" corporations, SMBs and common people.

These are only just getting started, from the large corps down. There is a decade of work ahead for them even if the AI tech stopped maturing right now.
I'm not American but would like to read more about this "debt storm", since your politics move world markets.

Can you provide some jumping-off points for the financially-literate?
the context limits on google are nuts! Being able to pump 2 million tokens in and having it cost $0 is pretty crazy rn. Cline makes it seamless to switch between APIs and isnt trying to shoehorn their SAAS AI into a custom vscode (looking at you cursor)
Not saying that's impossible. Certainly a ghost gun has an advantage to corrupt government agents just as it does to criminals.

But it's going to be difficult to make it stick against a patsy.

What will be very suspicious is if he dies in custody before trial. Otherwise, at trial, I expect:

* He has no alibi

* The ballistic evidence matches the gun.

* He has possession of additional ammunition from the same lot.

* He was in fact a client of UHC with a substantial claim denial history

* His computers/phone show that he was cyber-stalking

If they have all that, I don't think a reasonable person could believe that the FBI crime lab and Google can be coerced in a grand conspiracy into fabricating evidence.

If it turns out that the gun is a "2nd ghost gun", and the prosecution claims that he ditched the 1st gun and the ammo, and his alibi is "weak", and he cleared his digital history, that would be a much weaker more suspicious case.
> The forum has it not because it's common knowledge but because people with top secret clearance happen to frequent the forum and like to talk about/boast about the tech they work with.

Not really. The forum has it because the low-level maintenance grunts are on the forums and like talking about the thing they work on, and don't think of the manual as some super-secret state secret because honestly it mostly isn't, and is classified out of habit rather than out of deep thought.

> An enemy state's ability to get an agent deep inside the military, or to entice someone already inside to turn traitor, or to hack through the layers of security to extract data over the network is largely disconnected from an insider's desire to chat about what they did at work.

It's hardly "deep inside", and an enemy state is surely capable of befriending some low-level military personnel, at which point they'll say much the same technically-classified-but-not-super-important things to their in-person friends as they do on internet fora.
> Providers are liable for malpractice if they approve un-needed treatments

There is a lot of grey area between necessary to the point of malpractice if not provided and unnecessary to the point of malpractice.

Like, you’re not going to win a malpractice case because your doctor prescribed too many non-invasive tests and MRIs. And if my insurer is forced to approve every MRI, I'm probably going to ask my doctor for an MRI.
Curious about the AI research tool you mentioned, would you mind sharing it? Been trying to get a good local research setup with Ollama but still figuring out what works best.
Thanks to its simplicity for development and hosting SQLite has become our first choice for new Apps. We use a number of different ways to workaround its single concurrent writer limitation [1]. Whilst we're currently using Litestream for replication, we're currently evaluating switching to SQLite's native rsync [2].

[1] https://servicestack.net/posts/scalable-sqlite

[2] https://www.sqlite.org/rsync.html
I've called that "Organization as Code" some years back :-)
Also none of the software at least is public domain. It was developed by CalTech and somehow it is insulated from FOIA. (Normally work done by contractors on behalf of a government agency is property of that agency)
While the time and cost overruns are regrettable, it’s likely a welcome conclusion considering the Russian gas situation and the desire to phase out the last of their coal generation, which was bumped from the end of this year to 2027 in September 2023 by Macron.

https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/FR
> A technology so advanced that not only does it subsume all other technology, but it is able to improve itself.

The problem is, a computer has no idea what "improve" means unless a human explains it for every type of problem. And of course a human will have to provide guidelines about how long to think about the problem overall, which avenues to avoid because they aren't relevant to a particular case, etc. In other words, humans will never be able to stray too far from the training process.

We will likely never get to the point where an AGI can continuously improve the quality of its answers for all domains. The best we'll get, I believe, is an AGI that can optimize itself within a few narrow problem domains, which will have limited commercial application. We may make slow progress in more complex domains, but the quality of results--and the ability for the AGI to self-improve--will always level off asymptotically.
What do VMs mean in this context?

I did a pass of the codebase and it seems they’re just forking processes?

It’s unclear to me where the safety guarantees come from (compared to using e.g. KVM).

Edit: it appears the safety guarantees come from libriscv[0]. As far as I can tell, these sandboxes are essentially RISC-V programs running in an isolated context (“machine”) where all the Linux syscalls are emulated and thus “safe.” Still curious what potential attack vectors may exist?

[0] https://github.com/libriscv/libriscv/tree/dfb7c85d01f01cb38f...
If you're a offline kind of guy, try LM Studio + Cline :)

/not affiliated with cline, just a happy user
If you're interested in the latest tools for coding, join this subreddit and you'll always be on top of it:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPTCoding/

There are a lot of tools, but only a small pool of tools that are worth checking out. Cline, Continue, Windsurf, CoPilot, Cursor, and Aider are the ones that come to mind.
Let's revisit this comment in one year – after the explosion of agentic systems. (:
This is an epic tale about a marvel of engineering.
A few more than one, but it has been a lot less than when we were dealing with spinner. I think I requested about one or two replacements a year, a far cry from the one a week I was doing before.
These articles are like web3/crypto spams.
Oh, you know what? Good point. I forgot that the NeXT sale included a transfer of stock and wasn’t even thinking about it. I stand corrected!
Compare also https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/11/26/is-science-slowing-dow...

The blog post is about how we require ever more scientists (and other resources) to drive a steady stream of technological progress.

It would be funny, if things balance out just so, that super human AI is both possible, but also required even just to keep linear steady progress up.

No explosion, no stagnation, just a mere continuation of previous trends but with super human efforts required.
> fifth amendment (there is a process but it is very questionable, with basically no requirement of evidence of infringement, and no presumption of innocence)

There is also no “capital, or otherwise infamous crime,” “criminal case,” or taking of private property “for public use, without just compensation” [1].

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth_Amendment_to_the_Unite...
> What good it's it to train a model basically on itself?

If the model generates data of variable quality, and if there's a good way to distinguish good data from bad data, then training on self-generated data might "bootstrap" a model to better performance.

This is common in reinforcement learning. Famously, AlphaGo Zero (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AlphaGo_Zero) learned exclusively on self-play, without reference to human-played games.

Of course, games have a built-in critic: the better strategy usually wins. It's much harder to judge the answer to a math problem, or decide which essay is more persuasive, or evaluate restaurant recommendations.
It’d be easier if you’d be OK with a picture of a bird or picture of a squirrel ;)

Good luck, sounds like a fun project.
it's a lost cause. the people who want to pirate it will always find a way to circumvent efforts against it. better to spend efforts for people who pay than people who dont pay. better features for those who pay, instead of obfuscation for those who cant pay.

this is also good for those who cant pay, some of them are students or professionals who just simply dont have the budget yet.
I think you’d need an almighty market rally for some of these. For the first trillionaire we’d need to see Tesla double and the market would need to be going bananas for Bitcoin to 2x.

Remember 2024 has been a monster year in the markets and they just indicated they are slowing down the rate cuts.
I don’t think early AGI will break out of its box in that way. It may not have enough innate motivation to do so.

The first “break out” AGI will likely be released into the wild on purpose by a programmer who equates AGI with humans ideologically.