skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> The share gross electricity generation from coal in 2022 was 70.7%, (1.7 p.p. less than in 2021).

https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/poland-energ...
What is your personal benchmark for AGI? Turing test was surpassed years ago, ARC-AGI was a next step some quite clever people in the space came up with as a successor, and has now surpassed as well.

So what is your benchmark?
There’s regular news articles about people straight up dying from dodgy pills. Why would you take that risk. There is no way to safely use drugs when a single pill could kill you instantly.
They’re using the terms “subchannel” and “subcarrier” interchangeably, which is not entirely accurate.

In broadcasting, subchannels refer to the digital subchannels used in digital audio and television broadcasting. In the U.S., subchannels on the FM band are commonly referred to as the “HD-2” or “HD-3” channels. [1]

Conversely, subcarrier channels are not receivable with a consumer-grade radio. [2]

[1] FCC referencing subchannels: https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-367361A1.pdf
[2] FCC Broadcast Radio Subcarriers or Subsidiary Communications Authority: https://www.fcc.gov/media/radio/subcarriers-sca
I’ve never understood this perspective. Companies only make money when there are billions of customers. Are you imagining a total-monopoly scenario where zero humans have any income/wealth and there are only AI companies selling/mining/etc to each other, fully on their own? In such an extreme scenario, clearly the world’s governments would nationalize these entities. I think the only realistic scenario in which the future is not markedly better for every single human is if some rogue AI system decides to exterminate us, which I find to be increasingly unlikely as safety improvements are made (like the paper released today).

As for the wealth disparity between rich and poor countries, it’s hard to know how politics will handle this one, but it’s unlikely that poor countries won’t also be drastically richer as the cost of basic living drops to basically zero. Imagine the cost of food, energy, etc in an ASI world. Today’s luxuries will surely be considered human rights necessities in the near future.
Just give it a year for this bubble/hype to blow over. We have plateaued since gpt-4 and now most of the industry is hype-driven to get investor money. There is value in AI but it's far from it taking your job. Also everyone seems to be investing in dumb compute instead of looking for the new theoretical paradigm that will unlock the next jump.
Why not build a user interface that keeps us at peak health by demanding physical activity?
From that data, for the same reason as China: overdependence on coal.
I’m confused about the excitement. Are people just flat out ignoring the sentences below? I don’t see any breakthrough towards AGI here. I see a model doing great in another AI test but about to abysmally fail a variation of it that will come out soon. Also, aren’t these comparisons completely nonsense considering it’s o3 tuned vs other non-tuned?

> Note on "tuned": OpenAI shared they trained the o3 we tested on 75% of the Public Training set. They have not shared more details. We have not yet tested the ARC-untrained model to understand how much of the performance is due to ARC-AGI data.

> Furthermore, early data points suggest that the upcoming ARC-AGI-2 benchmark will still pose a significant challenge to o3, potentially reducing its score to under 30% even at high compute (while a smart human would still be able to score over 95% with no training).
Yes, you can download on both the mobile app and the desktop program.
I was wondering about that too. If I understand correctly, the Arm license includes a clause stipulating that it is invalidated if the company is acquired unless Arm grants permission.
Generally human beings value ornamentation quite highly. I think you make an interesting observation, but to say “no other need” is ridiculous. I also have a dim view of a lot of high profile architecture and the high ego architect, don’t get me wrong, but form and function ought to be a balance and not a battle. You’re claiming it’s a battle.
Right. Arc is meant to test the ability of a model to generalize. It's neat to see it succeed, but it's not yet a guarantee that it can generalize when given other tasks.

The other benchmarks are a good indication though.
> when I try to code it with ChatGPT

so don't do that... just rtfm and it's easy
Ask HN: What does OpenAI's O3 Arc result mean for the field?
From criticism of how inadequate the transformer architecture is, depletion of training data, improvements to the attention mechanism, AGI supposedly being miles away; where does the new results put the field and what avenues need more focus and what others need less focus to the point of complete cutoff?
I don't like Spotify's business model. This is why I use Deezer as my streaming service. Deezer pays the artist more and has Hi-Fi streams. Streaming is killing the music industry and quality because it pays crappy royalties.
how is this a plateau since gpt-4? this is significantly better
I have taken a Waymo in the rain before, if they have stopped supporting that as part of the service that’s new, buts it’s definitely within the systems capabilities. It worked great
> have been delaying adulthood

If you have kids, do you see them as less mature than how you perceived yourself at their age ?

TBH I feel the opposite: current kids have a lot more to deal with, and are expected to be much much more down to earth than a few decades ago. The most basic things: a single post on an SNS can stick with them for the rest of their life, yet we moved half of our social life online.
Their population is stagnating and there's some good signs that the numbers they gave were not accurate in the first place, China's real population is likely lower than India.
What do you think were the motives of the architects and the design committee that selected this plan?

I thought your comment was ridiculous at first until I realized that I agree.
Tesla finds 'cell-dent' issues in Cybertrucks, starts replacing battery packs
Politically anything can happen. Maybe the billionaire class controls everything with an army of robots and it's a horrible prison-like dystopia, or maybe we end up in a post-scarcity utopia a la The Culture.

Regardless, once we have AGI (and it can scale), I don't think O&G reliance (/ climate change) is going to be something that we need concern ourselves with.
Drug addicts sell their children (in the worst way) for the next hit. It's not the same.
In 1924 you would expect to be a child in a family of 5 with two dying before they hit their majority.

We are simply blind to how much even the relatively recent past sucked.
So much is open to interpretation, and the courts have rendered opinions that parse away language in confounding directions. Even within the Bill of Rights. Hope the models account for that.
> You'll know AGI is here when the exercise of creating tasks that are easy for regular humans but hard for AI becomes simply impossible.

You'll know AGI is here when traditional captchas stop being a thing due to their lack of usefulness.
If only someone wrote about what happened before 1947!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_in_the_Ott...
People act as if GPT-4 came out 10 years ago.
So? I guess you could say that's coming up with an idea not found in the training data, but that's arguing semantics, and not really the thing I'm saying LLMs can't do.
This is not new. When GPT-4 was released I was able to get it to generate SVGs albeit they were ugly they had the basics.
PG&E has ~6 million accounts in a state of 40 million people.

Apples to oranges. 6 million accounts works out to roughly 16 million people according to their site. That works out to a bit over 40% of the 39 million (38,965,193 says Wiki) people out here.
That’s the least reassuring phrasing I could imagine. If you’re betting on costs not reducing for compute then you’re almost always making the wrong bet.
not that you are wrong but life without risk is what today’s kids are mostly experiencing and it is no way to live. statistically based on number of pills consumed your chances of straight-up dying are very low. drug dealers do not want to kill you any more than Elon selling you a Tesla without brakes. we do thousands of inherently dangerous things all the time (e.g. each time you fly you should know that chances are your aircraft may have been maintained / repaired in any of the 900 facilities outside of the United States and such work
is performed by people making less money per day than you spend on pumpkin spice latte… and yet we fly…) statistically though, your chances of dying from a dodgy pill are very very low
> That said... we're at the point of diminishing returns in LLM...

What evidence are you basing this statement from? Because, the article you are currently in the comment section of certainly doesn't seem to support this view.
Ask HN: Should I bother learning low-level languages like Rust or CUDA?
So I mainly do JS/TS/React and python/pytorch, basically webdev stuff and ML stuff. Rust and CUDA keep popping up over and over in my various social media feeds. I've looked into learning these, but the problem is there isn't a problem I want to solve right now that would require these. In webdev land I haven't yet run into a problem I couldn't solve by importing a package someone else wrote in nodejs. In ML land sometimes I want to make pytorch go faster, but all the complexity of CUDA seems daunting. I recently discovered Triton, and it seems that you can simply just write the code in python and add decorators.

Also numba/taichi seems to speed up python code by a ton.

With the world going so fast, should I spend any time learning these lower-level programming languages like Rust or CUDA? I'm not a hardware person btw, at least not right now. I guess I'm basically torn between thinking I should learn these things cause it would be cool and whether it's just a waste of time.
There are already compatibility layers for x86 on RISC-V. They’re not quite as good, but progress is being made.

Edit, link: https://box86.org/2024/08/box64-and-risc-v-in-2024/
> if it puts you out of work and automates away all other alternatives, then you’ll be witnessing the greatest economic shift in human history.

This would mean the final victory of capital over labor. The 0.01% of people who own the machines that put everyone out of work will no longer have use for the rest of humanity, and they will most likely be liquidated.
> In such an extreme scenario, clearly the world’s governments would nationalize these entities

Those entities are the worlds governments regardless how things play out. People just worry they will be hostile or indifferent to humans, since that would be bad news for humans. Pet, cattle or pest, our future will be as one of those.
I don't see anywhere how they actually buy the drug.

Or do teenagers get legal access to credit cards in the US ?
The Party is over....
Update: Because they banned everything associated with my account, my developer account has been disabled, which broke a live mobile app. I have no way to restore or fix it because they seem to have blocked my IP from creating new accounts. Absolutely bonkers!

I’m learning my lesson: no more FB integration.
on the spatial data i see it as a highly intelligent head of a machine that just needs better limbs and better senses.

i think that's where most hardware startups will specialize with in the coming decades, different industries with different needs.
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Rust's ownership model is close enough for translating C. It's just more explicit and strongly typed, so the translation needs to figure out what a more free-form C code is trying to do, and map that to Rust's idioms.

For example, C's buffers obviously have lengths, but in C the length isn't explicitly tied to a pointer, so the translator has to deduce how the C program tracks the length to convert that into a slice. It's non-trivial even if the length is an explicit variable, and even trickier if it's calculated or changes representations (e.g. sometimes used in the form of one-past-the-end pointer).

Other C patterns like `bool should_free_this_pointer` can be translated to Rust's enum of `Owned`/`Borrowed`, but again it requires deducing which allocation is tied to which boolean, and what's the true safe scope of the borrowed variant.
Yes, the Asahi Linux reverse engineers said in their commit message for the Linux apple-nvme driver:

“Add a driver for the NVMe storage controller integrated on
Apple SoCs. This NVMe controller isn't PCI based and deviates
from the NVMe standard in its implementation of the command
submission queue and the integration of an NVMMU that needs
to be managed. This commit tweaks the core NVMe code to
support the linear command submission queue implemented by
this controller. But setting up the submission queue and
managing the NVMMU controller is handled by implementing
the driver ops that were added in an earlier commit.“
First, this model is yet to be released. This is a momentum "announcement". When the O1 was "announced", it was announced as a "breakthrough" but I use Claude/O1 daily and 80% of the time Claude beats it. I also see it as a highly fine-tuned/targeted GPT-4 rather than something that has complex understanding.

So we'll find out if this model is real or not by 2-3 months. My guess is that it'll turn out to be another flop like O1. They needed to release something big because they are momentum based and their ability to raise funding is contingent on their AGI claims.
Explorer (known in MS jargon as "the shell", but I'm avoiding the term because it confuses Unix users) is limited by MAX_PATH characters when it stores absolute paths.

Win32 allows you to use paths above MAX_PATH in length when you 1. Use the utf-16 filename apis and 2. prefix your path with \\?\.

But the shell doesn't do the latter. It may also use fixed size buffers for paths, that is a common reason for such limitations.
Can I just say what a dick move it was to do this as a 12 days of Christmas. I mean to be honest I agree with the arguments this isn’t as impressive as my initial impression, but they clearly intended it to be shocking/a show of possible AGI, which is rightly scary.

It feels so insensitive to that right before a major holiday when the likely outcome is a lot of people feeling less secure in their career/job/life.

Thanks again openAI for showing us you don’t give a shit about actual people.
You are going through your studies just as a (potentially major) new class of tools is appearing. It's not the first time in history - although with more hype this time: computing, personal computing, globalisation, smart phones, chinese engineering... I'd suggest (1) you still need to understand your field, (2) you might as well try and figure out where this new class of tools is useful for your field. Otherwise... (3) carry on.

It's not encouraging from the point of view of studying hard but the evolution of work the past 40 years seems to show that your field probably won't be your field quite exactly in just a few years. Not because your field will have been made irrelevant but because you will have moved on. Most likely that will be fine, you will learn more as you go, hopefully moving from one relevant job to the next very different but still relevant job. Or straight out of school you will work in very multi-disciplinary jobs anyway where it will seem not much of what you studied matters (it will but not in obvious ways.)

Certainly if you were headed into a very specific job which seems obviously automatable right now (as opposed to one where the tools will be useful), don't do THAT. Like, don't train as a typist as the core of your job in the middle of the personal computer revolution, or don't specialize in hand-drawing IC layouts in the middle of the CAD revolution unless you have a very specific plan (court reporting? DRAM?)
Yeah it's called apartment living. I hit nearly $350 in Oakland a couple years (and many PG&E rate hikes) ago in a 600 sq ft apartment. Even if I wanted to pay for a heat pump installation it's doubtful the landlord would've been on board.

Last time I did the math, even with a 60% efficient furnace natural gas was cheaper than an electric heat pump. PG&E's electric rates are simply that much more expensive than their natural gas rates. Currently that's up to $0.49/kWh on the most popular rate plan vs $2.49/therm. Keep in mind that the fifth and sixth electric rate hikes of 2024 were just approved today by Newsom's regulatory body and don't factor into the price I quoted.
Not to say it wouldn’t be a leap, but is there anything particularly special about learning that makes it unachievable? If you can reason and you can do trial and error, given enough time and compute I think most things should be learnable?
This is spot on. Running some python projects on nixos is a nightmare because of this model. Especially if it’s ML related.
> The law is special because everyone has to obey it or face punishment.

In medicine if you get things very wrong, you die, your patient dies, or everyone in the room dies.

In programming if you get things wrong, you give someone radiation poisoning and they die, a plane crashes, or someone loses days of work.

Surely, those are bigger injustices.
The Corridor Principle (1988)
Your interlocutor might not care about facts but the audience might. I’ve learned interesting new things from reading the back-and-forth of others going at it online.
Captchas are already completely useless.
> It might just be that the headline is bad and the literature is simply describing vole predation.

Correct!

From the article:

> Any supplementation of their vegetarian diet was historically believed to primarily occur through eating insects or, on occasion, nest predation of eggs or young hatchlings (Bradley and Marzluff 2003).

> Roughly 30 years ago, Callahan (1993) radically altered our perception of squirrels by characterizing as many as 30 species of the family Sciuridae as facultative predators of small vertebrates capable of killing and consuming adult fish, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals (Table S1).

The study is itself a detailed breakdown of changes in foraging behavior linkedin to "food pulses" (which I guess means the times when various food sources are available, a la acorns in the fall and sprouts in the spring).
If only there was something you could do when you're losing a war that you started... Mmmm. Is there a customer support number for Jihadists they could try?
Can’t they just go at night?
This is really confusing me. Is Arm seriously claiming that all design work that makes use of their ISA is derivative work? I feel like I have to be misunderstanding something.

Wouldn't that be similar to the Google v Oracle Java API case except the claim would be even stronger - that all programs making use of the Java API were derivative works of the Java API and thus subject to licensing arrangements with Oracle?

Or similarly, a hypothetical claim by Intel that a compiler such as LLVM is derivative work of the x86 ISA.

That can't possibly be right. What have I misunderstood about this situation?
> nothing can be automated according to them, and they require actual human actors to drive the process forward from one step to the next.

A machine cannot be held accountable, and therefore should not be in charge of making decisions.
Self-learning. Human level intelligence, which isn’t a set of facts but rather the ability to self-learn and correct which LLMs are completely unable to do right now.
Right back at you. I was also commenting on rate rather than saying that I saw one or 2 in the last 10-15 years.

Not all locations are the same though, so maybe there has been a noticeable decrease where you're at. Personally, I think I've felt an increase if anything.
Maybe the scientists should have done a quick google before declaring nobody has seen this behavior before.
That's true, and something which I hadn't considered...
Kinda curious what kind of data you have lying around there and what stack you use to create the embeddings and keep them up to date and how you use then...
There is no AGI it’s just marketing, this stuff if over hyped, enjoy your holidays you won’t lose your job ;)
Successful People Start Before They Feel Ready
Bioaccelerationism Is a No-Brainer
They probably copied the magstripe, but couldn't do a straight at withdraw without stripe+pin.

Far easier to track/reverse a debit transaction done as a credit card network than debit requiring PIN.
I was very blunt and impersonal. People worked hard on a thing and my first reaction was criticism, without even the added overall view of "I love this thing, but here is a small thing that bothers me." I could have been more courteous and human about things.

I stand by the points I made, but I could have been friendlier. I normally make an effort to be friendly as I can about things, but I absolutely did not here. I hope that nothing I said came across as vitriol, but rather, valid criticism. I'm a strong believer in criticizing the things you love, but I need to remember that random comments on HN aren't the place where people know I love the thing, and my criticism needs context.

So no, it wasn't really that odious, but it was other things. Do I feel stricken with guilt or remorse about what I said? No. Could I have been friendlier? yes. Should I have been friendlier? Probably.
If AI turns out capable of automating human jobs then it will also be a capable assistant to help (jobless) people manage their needs. I am thinking personal automation, or combining human with AI to solve self reliance. You lose jobs but gain AI powers to extend your own capabilities.

If AI turns out dependent on human input and feedback, then we will still have jobs. Or maybe - AI automates many jobs, but at the same time expands the operational domain to create new ones. Whenever we have new capabilities we compete on new markets, and a hybrid human+AI might be more competitive than AI alone.

But we got to temper these singularitarian expectations with reality - it takes years to scale up chip and energy production to achieve significant work force displacement. It takes even longer to gain social, legal and political traction, people will be slow to adopt in many domains. Some people still avoid using cards for payment, and some still use fax to send documents, we can be pretty stubborn.
If I listened to the naysayers back in the day I would have never entered the tech industry (offshoring etc). Yes, that does somewhat prove you're point given that those predictions were cost driven.

Having used AI extensively I don't feel my future is at risk at all, my work is enhanced not replaced.
> Working in software breeds some truly wild perspectives on the world.

My personal suspicion is that software is one of the easiest fields in the world to learn, and it has the sneaky benefit that you don't have to brush up against many constraints of the real world, but then — this doesn't explain the apparent god complex many programmers have.