skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
The original bond says 75 guilders per year until the principal of 1200 was repaid. That's 6.25% per year.

I don't think this investment was anywhere as dire as you paint it as. Especially in a world where monetary inflation was very different... currency debasement didn't typically happen that quickly.
There are still many uncertainties about how sapiens outcompeted and interbred neanderthals. How hard was it for them to find food in winter? Less food could also explain slowed growth. Why did they not invent spears or bows? Maybe they were accurate enough with stones.
I am one of the person who did the « heavy lifting » on this logo. One of the versions I contributed were actually inspired by the Clojure logo, so, I guess you are both right.

In this discarded version[1], the camel hump is used to create a « dune » in the background. I would have think it was the best, but we discarded it during the review sessions.

[1] https://github.com/metacpan/perl-assets/blob/main/experiment...
It was meant to be an open-source compilation of the crawled internet so that research could be done on web search given how opaque Google's process is. It was NOT meant to be a cheap source of data for for-profit LLM's to train on.

*edit: added "for-profit"
That all supports what I said, right? If almost everyone has almost all of their language functionality lateralized to one side of the brain then you'd have at most one inner monologue.

(At least) two minds: yes. Two inner monologues: no.
The Hudson's Bay Company is almost old enough. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hudson%27s_Bay_Company
Ask HN: A Clickjacking Defense Suggestion?
The problem: when website has a post comments section that allows including html, attacker can post a link that utilizes clickjacking attack by posting a button that says i.e. click here! but when the user clicks it it deletes the account.

The traditional solution is validating such action by prompting with a required confirmation i.e Are you sure you want to delete the account? Or entering some text such as "delete" or the user's name.

I have a suggestion for a framework that utilizes contexts, which will defend sensitive actions more broadly and I would like to bring it up here.

What I suggest is to have context on every website section, such as comments and user's profile, so that when a logged in user is in the comments section they are only able to utilize front end's comment context. From the comments context the profile context will be invisible and the comments context is the only one that will be able to talk with the comments endpoint on the server.

Problem is solved? WDYT?
Show HN: Complete decompilation of Lego Island
Correct! That's why I use "Under new management" https://chromewebstore.google.com/detail/under-new-managemen...
> From my limited knowledge the AMA has attempted to restrict doctors from non American schools from practicing in the USA.

That is not the case. Rather international medical school graduates also need to complete their residency training in the US even if they finished one elsewhere. So what happens is recent IMGs complete the US medical exams and directly apply for residency training in the US.

However many of these requirements are made on a state be state basis and some are starting to loosen up residency training requirements if it was completed elsewhere.
Let me begin by saying that this is a throwaway account and I'll be logging out without saving the password right after I finish this post, so if you want to ask questions or debate anything I say, you'll be waiting a very long time for a reply from me. This is for my benefit, as my doctor has suggested that I spend less time arguing with people on the Internet who are obviously wrong.

Also, it may be instructive to go through previous years' prediction threads and see how many of those predictions were accurate. You'll probably be able to count them without taking off your shoes.

All that said, here are my predictions:

* At least one of the top-tier companies doing GenAI research (e.g. MS, Google, or OpenAI) will cut their losses and shut down said program. If it's OpenAI, that's probably also the end of the company. Nvidia's market cap will come back down to earth.

* The mainstream Democratic party will, yet again, decide that they lost the 2024 Presidential election due to insufficiently catering to conservatives, and will once again decide on a strategy of "triangulation" in the years to come. This will continue to lose them elections.

* Statements and/or behavior of more elected Federal officials (meaning the president or a member of either house of Congress) will make it obvious to the general public that said officials are suffering from major cognitive decline, presumably from advancing dementia due to old age.

* More corporate executives in unpopular industries such as defense, banking, fossil fuels, or health insurance again, will be assassinated now that the idea is in people's heads. The only thing that surprised me about the Brian Thompson case is that it took this long. At least a significant minority of said assassins will walk due to jury nullification or eyewitnesses refusing to testify.

* 2025 will be the hottest year on record, until 2026 tops it.

* Cooperation between Musk and Trump won't last due to no room in the world being large enough to fit both those egos. Trump will find himself sidelined in his own administration and left to sulk and watch TV.
Theories and research on the limit to the complexity of societal inventions?
Maybe a concrete example is that humans are capable of building jumbo jets.

But that requires the interface of many different technologies and many different disciplines. It probably requires so much knowledge that one single person doesn't really understand everything that goes into making a jumbo jet.

In a similar way, someone just replied to one of my HN comments, suggesting that the rise of LLMs will simply make us able to augment the ability of humans to do math research.

But I wonder if there's a limit to the complexity of inventions (or research) that we, as a society, can handle.

Maybe the limit is based on how our brains work, or maybe we're limited by the complexity of our institutions. etc. etc.

====

I'm sure people have thought about this, but who studies the "limits to societal complexity"? And what exactly is that research called?

I'd ask an LLM, but I'd like to hear from some humans.

Thank you.
That's great, I really enjoyed that.

I've met my fair share of Juliuses, both in college and in work. It often really made me question why I even care about what I do.
Right so is the paper saying that lambda CM completely ignored clock differences due to heterogeneity in mass distribution in the universe where isolated galaxies would be experiencing less time slowing than galaxies near other galaxies which would experience more time dilation?
Netflix used to offer Audio and Subtitles in several languages. Now even subtitles the only option I get is Spanish (Latin America)... Like come on, sometimes I want to learn another language, understand the real word behind the sounds.

I may understand Audio, because of Edge location storage costs, but Subtitles... that’s blasphemy.
The lender in this case was living somewhere that was likely to flood if the repair works funded by the bond didn't get done, so they might have had some not purely financial motivation for it.

Plus we don't know what other investments Elsken Jorisdochter owned; this was probably a small part of her assets.

Finally, I'm not very convinced by the "400 years at 4% compounding" hypothetical -- could you actually buy an investment with that return at that date which was a safe non-risky one? And if you could, should you as a person with a lifespan much less than 400 years really prefer it over something which gives you a guaranteed income within your life?
How can we take claims of AGI seriously if it can't even order a pizza?
The Heist [video]
go to the IRL hardware / grocery store? I still get out of my chair to go the Costco, Ace hardware, Microcenter and REI's of the world. But short of that target, walmart, home depot have really stepped up their (fast/free) shipping game in the past few years.
Rock your baby to sleep with Lego
At a cheap buffet, probably both
Beginning with 10.15, macOS doesn’t ship with Python anymore.

However, if you install the Xcode Command Line Tools, it will install Python solely because of their developer tool dependencies. It’s not really meant for end user development use. The longer term intent is to eliminate those dependencies but that’s a lot of work.

You probably see this version because you have the Command Line Tools installed. If you go to a macOS system without the Command Line Tools installed, you will get Apple’s deprecation notice when you try to run Python.
Yes, they sold it to HP. The latest toners I got for my MD2825 have HP hologram stickers on them.

However, both MD282x series, and ML1710 are designed and produced way before the transfer. I remember seeing the Xerox printers first, thinking "Sweet", then finding the same device with a different color scheme, only under Samsung brand, and just buying it, because an extra Ethernet cable was not a problem at that time (Plus Xerox's one was unobtanium).

For the ML1710, I remember seeing the Xerox one at the university, taking an "info" page from it and saying "this looks similar to my 1710, what happens if I just use with 1710 driver?", and I was printing 35 seconds later.

Now my parents are using the 2825, and I have enough spares to let them use it for another decade at their usage volume.

For the driver thing, it's good that the 2825 supports both AirPrint and Google Cloud Print (while it lasted), and is just an IPP printer with an open PPD file. So it can be used with toaster or a server or a phone, as long as it talks AirPrint or IPP.
>Laying down x length of rail track is not a difficult problem whatsoever.

It actually is. Japan's new maglev shinkansen line is stalling because they can't get land rights to lay rail through.[1]

An even more blasphemous example is California's high speed rail project which never accomplishes anything, but I'm pretty sure that also suffers from a severe case of legalized money laundering.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ch%C5%AB%C5%8D_Shinkansen#Shiz...
A group of individuals could do a gdpr flashmob and make any data admin miserable.
The post you responded to is merely giving evidence that the GP's overall claim "Any of these text problems where you're tying to optimize over a whole corpus is kind of not hard to see to be NP-complete" is sometimes not true in surprising ways -- Knuth conjectured that there was no linear time algorithm for longest common substring (but then suffix trees came along).
Why is that unfair in reply to the claim “At this stage I assume everything having a sequencial pattern can and will be automated by LLM AIs.”?

I am not claiming LLMs aren’t or cannot be intelligent, not even that they cannot do magical things; I just rebuked a statement about the lack of limits of LLMs.

> Naturally, humans couldn’t do it, even though they could edit the input to remove the X’s

So, what are you claiming: that they cannot or that they can? I think most people can and many would. Confronted with a file containing millions of X’s, many humans will wonder whether there’s something else than X’s in the file, do a ‘replace all’, discover the question hidden in that sea of X’s, and answer it.

There even are simple files where most humans would easily spot things without having to think of removing those X's. Consider a file

How X X X X X X
many X X X X X X
days X X X X X X
are X X X X X X
there X X X X X X
in X X X X X X
a X X X X X X
week? X X X X X X

with a million X’s on the end of each line. Spotting the question in that is easy for humans, but impossible for the current bunch of LLMs
Let's make two generous assumptions:
1. ARC-AGI actually generalizes to human intelligence
2. It took 172x more compute to go from ~75% to ~87%, so it will take roughly 4x that to get to 99% (the level of a STEM graduate), assuming every 172x'ing of the compute cuts the remaining gap in half

That is roughly 10^9 times more compute required, or roughly the US military budget per half an hour, to get the intelligence of 1 (!) STEM graduate (not any kind of superhuman intelligence).

Of course, algorithms will get better, but this particular approach feels like wading in a plateau of efficiency improvements, very, very far down the X axis.
Would you mind elaborating more on those common cases? I'm not sure I've heard of destructive moves being less safe than non-destructive moves and I'm not smart enough to figure out what you're talking about in your second sentence.
The first question is always: which model? Which fortunately you at least addressed:
>free plan of ChatGPT, but I can remember if it was 4o or 4.

Since chatgpt-4o, there has been o1-preview, and o1 (full) is out. They just announced o3 got a 25% on frontiermath which is what this article is a reaction to. So, any tests on 4o are at least TWO (or three) AI releases with new capabilities.
Feel, Don't Think
Accurate. JetBrains IDEs are the only ones I'll use. Webstorm, PyCharm, GoLand - all wonderful.
Loving Pearl's new OCaml logo.
:dusty_stick:
I tried to train an AI to guess the weight and reps from my exercise log but it would produce nonsense results for rep ranges I didn’t have enough training data for, as if it didn’t understand that more weight means less reps. I used synthetic training data and interpolated and imputed data for rep ranges I didn’t have data for using estimation formulas, the network then predicted better, but it also made me realize i basically made the model learn the prediction formula and AI was not actually needed and im better off using the prediction formula. But it also illustrates that the model can learn from a calculation or estimation the same way it learns from the real world, without necessarily needing to train exclusively in the real world. An ai car driving in a simulation may actually learn some of the formulas that apply both in the simulation and in the real world. The same simulations and synthetic data can also be just as useful for validation not just training. It’s not hard to imagine scenarios that are impractical, illegal or unethical to test in real life. Also, as AI becomes more advanced, synthetic data can be useful for generating superhuman examples. It’s not hard to imagine you could improve upon data from a human driver by synthetically altering it to be even safer.
OCaml called and wants it's logo back.
Data Liberation Project Holiday Call for Volunteers
The UK government finally bought back its old consols, their perpetual bonds, in 2015.[1]

"Never sell consols" was good advice in the Jane Austen era.

[1] https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-says-redeem-post-world-...
No state does. The Russian state started in 1917 and disclaimed all debts of the Czar. The Ottoman empire ended and was replaced with the Republic of Turkey. Modern Germany doesn't inherit from any of the predecessor states after WWI and the Nazi era.
I suspect this is just an ad. To me, the post is indistinguishable from an advertisement and contains very little information--fairly typical of reddit.
I assume it just won’t roll out to those locations. The EU would take Google to the cleaners (again) if they knowingly ignored EU law.
The Design Leader Dilemma
What about a doctor who used a mix of training both on live patients as well as cadavers and models?
It would be very hard to find a problem that has better mechanical sympathy than full-scan similarity search. Even if the operation count of some other algorithm was 1/10 on paper it might not be faster if the prefetcher and branch predictor aren't running at their best.

People who want to start with RAG should not start with a vector search engine but instead download

https://sbert.net/

and start messing around w/ Jupyter notebooks and maybe FAISS. People who think I'm going to upload vectors to an expensive cloud service over a slow ADSL connection are delusional.
>You're free to purchase a health plan from one of them.

I do, thank you :)

I love the way Kaiser Permanente operates and I think a larger, nationwide Kaiser Permanente would be really ideal.

Something like the Bank of North Dakota but for healthcare.
I love that you are approaching this space. SSH keys are an under-valued identity credential. Most big companies i've worked at have a clumsy sync & storage system that I think you could sell to.

I'd encourage the next version using a more distributed approach (instead of a centralized credential DB & email token). A gpg signature or CA (using openssl) are alternative trust models that would provide trust without the DB
This is a great point that nobody will shoot you over :)

But the main question is still: assuming you replace an undergrad with a model, who checks the work? If you have a good process around that already, and find utility as an augmented system, then get you’ll get value - but I still think it’s better for the undergrad to still have the job and be at the wheel, and does things faster and better when leveraging a powerful tool.
> I am betting hundreds of thousands, rising to millions more little sites, will start blocking/gating this year. AI companies might license from big sources (you can see the blocking percentage went down), but they will be missing the long tail, where a lot of great novel training data lives.

This is where I'm at. I write content when I run into problems that I don't see solved anywhere else, so my sites host novel content and niche solutions to problems that don't exist elsewhere, and if they do, they are cited as sources in other publications, or are outright plagiarized.

Right now, LLMs can't answer questions that my content addresses.

If it ever gets to the point where LLMs are sufficiently trained on my data, I'm done writing and publishing content online for good.
Yeah. Juliuses who understand the code.
> If you follow that rule you'll never be scammed.

until you get robbed, kidnapped or forced to do a bank transfer.
i need to do this. may i ask which app you are using and how you set the reminders so that you see them regularly?
To be honest, the answer is probably "whoever happens to be in second place when Magnus falls off". Magnus has openly stated that he finds classical chess boring, stopped playing in the world championship due to the immense amount of prep required, and has started pushing for other formats (more blitz, Fischer random). I could see him just prepping less and losing his 20 point advantage by the end of the year.

The 2024 world champion Gukesh Dommaraju made a pretty huge leap this year, is only 18 years old (youngest world champion of all time), has a really unique playing style, and is likely to continue improving next year, so it's possible he'll run away with it, but I think it's unlikely. At the top levels right now, a lot of the ELO distinction comes down to finding ways to consistently dominate players that are slightly worse than you, and Gukesh doesn't seem to be optimizing for that.
Most social media requires some identifying details to make it difficult to cyberbully someone without recourse. Sarahah did not. A lot of young people suffered because of Sarahah
Thanks! We changed the URL to that from https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/12/05/how-developers-are-con..., since the latter doesn't seem to add anything to the video.
Engineering Physics All at Once [video]
I'm a (new grad) software engineer by trade, but for the last 8 months, I've been working on this amateur short film about impostor syndrome, which I think would resonate with a lot of you. At least for me, I was never the best programmer or mathematician in any class I took, but I managed to get to where I wanted to be regardless through hard work, sacrifice, and the support of my friends. I hope this film resonates with some of you!
P.S. I can't make any money off of YouTube because of my TN visa, someone teach me how to get an EB2 visa
Yeah, although dumb servers could just return last N posts as usual. It's one more case to handle on the client, though. (The alternative is breaking compatibility with older feeds, which is way worse IMO.)
I had a client who had a T640tn with a forms card that did somewhere around 1000 pages a day every day, pretty much trouble free.

It was in a pretty dusty environment too, in the weighbridge office at a fruit juice plant.
Debtors see hyperinflation in neighboring countries and start getting nervous.
Cellulose is microplastic? I wonder what paper straws shed?
i dont get it, how is that a .. downside?
> It's as vague and un-actionable as you can get.

But it isn’t. Knowing that information is encoded in the weights gives us a route to deduce what a given model is doing.

And we are. Research is being done there.

> "Information is encoded in a brain's neurons and this affects our actions". Literally nothing useful you can do with this.

Different entirely. We don’t even know how to conceptualize how data is stored in the brain at all.

With a machine, we know everything. The data is stored in a binary format which represents a decimal number.

We also know what information should be present.

We can and are using this knowledge to reverse engineer what a given model is doing.

That is not something we can do with a brain because we don’t know how a brain works. The best we can do is see that there’s more blood flow in one area during certain tasks.

With these statistical models, we can carve out entire chunks of their weights and see what happens (interestingly not much. Apparently most weights don’t contribute significantly towards any token and can be ignored with little performance loss)

We can do that with these transformers models because we do know how they work.

Just because we don’t understand every aspect of every single model doesn’t mean we don’t know how they work.

I think we’re starting to run in circles and maybe splitting hairs over what “know how something works” means.

I don’t think we’re going to get much more constructive than this.

I highly recommend looking into LoRas. We can make Loras because we know how these models work.

We can’t do that for organic brains.
Life is short. Just doing what I can.
> cosmology hasn't accounted for differences in clocks given how central GR is to astronomy

Of course it has. Yes, LCDM's FLRW metric, by its defining assumption of spatial homogeneity, doesn't allow the metric (let alone the speed of clocks) to vary spatially. However, it is very common to do perturbation theory on top of the FLRW metric to account for density fluctuations. Besides, there are also models like LTB (Lemaître-Tolman-Bondi) which give up on homogeneity at the non-perturbative level (while still preserving isotropy, though).

All in all, the idea that local voids could explain away the Lambda in LCDM is anything but new. It's just that the OP's timescape approach is the first one that seems to produce promising results. (Disclaimer: I merely skimmed the paper.)
I use kagi for a search engine.

Paying for a search engine means that I am the customer, not the product. While you are correct that my data is an asset for Kagi, it is a one shot asset, vs my subscription, which is recurring revenue.

I can look at the privacy policy for Kagi (https://kagi.com/privacy), and see that I am not at risk of having my searches logged or data shared. I trust them because violating that privacy policy puts them at risk of being sued by me, and by any investors in the company.

As you yourself stated: either company is capable of building a profile. One has promised not to do that contractually, and google, more or less, has promised to do exactly that regardless.
Yeah, it's such a disgrace that people report on updates for software that's still being used and maintained. Linux is even worse about it. They should be writing articles about Multics and ITS instead.