skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Everyone seems overly optimistic about AI in 2025. I onboard with a slowdown. It's to expensive for to little results (financially).

2025 might be a bit to early, but I think we will see a medium size backlash against AI and at least a certain segment of people will start to actively avoid LLMs and seek out alternatives. Some companies will find a niche in "Never talk to an AI/don't let computers solve human problems" and will be able to charge a premium.

2025 could however be the first year we see the first high profile AI companies close their doors. I think OpenAI is high on the list of companies that will in some sense fail. The brand is huge, but they are burning way to much cash, so they'll probably be rolled into Microsoft and their technology will live on inside SharePoint, VSCode and Outlook. Again, next year is a little early, but I'm still on a 25% chance of OpenAI being swallowed up by Microsoft.
NB: Can't edit my original reply.

Sorry actually I misread part of your comment in relation to the paper and confused δ and another parameter, K.

To clarify, δ is the number of tokens in the tokenized corpus and K is the size of the vocabulary.

So, if you are asking about why would they limit _K_, then my answer still applies (after swapping δ for K). But if you still mean "why do they pick some arbitrary δ as the limit of the size of the tokenized corpus", then I think the answer is just "because that makes it a decision problem".
The richer oxygenation of the Earth's atmosphere in a previous geological era favoured the development of very large insects. Some wingspans attained 70cm! But the evolution of insectivorous birds likely favoured the smaller, nimbler insect variants.[1]

And then there is historical climate change as factor, not to mention K-Pg Extinction. [2,3]

[1] https://news.ucsc.edu/2012/06/giant-insects.html

[2] https://www.sci.news/paleontology/ypresiosirex-orthosemos-gi...

[3] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cretaceous%E2%80%93Paleogene...
> Like e.g. in Java it was common to have a comment on a simple (!) setter, telling you "this sets X"

This has never been common in any sensible environment. Only on projects with project leads who had zero clue about anything, and with silly catch-all rules such as "EVERY METHOD MUST BE DOCUMENTED!". This predictably leads to shitty documentation.

/**
* Sets foo to <code>foo</code>
* @param foo new foo value
*/
public void setFoo(int foo) {
this.foo = foo;
}

No one sensible does this. Some IDEs might auto generate this garbage. In which case that should be disabled.
Note that this is prone to review bombing.

Often series and films get accused of having an "agenda" and a lot of non-fans join in review bombing. It can still be good media if "fan reviews" don't like it.
> they Google the information from the LLM and do more reading

The runway on this one seems to be running out fast - how long before all the google results are also non-expert opinions regurgitated by LLMs?
As a German: you are exactly right. Sitting down at the Stammtisch is asking for trouble. It's reserved for the die hard locals - it's coming from Stammkundschaft which roughly translates to regulars. Still it's perfectly fine to sit next to it or somewhere else in the bar. Usually sitting directly at the bar is the place for newbies or foreigners and people are often willing to talk and interact. Sometimes the bar keeper is interested in having a conversation or someone ordering a few beer initiates a conversation and invites you to their table.

Unfortunately my experience (in eastern Germany, maybe it's not universal) you tend to meet lot's of broken and fucked up people in bars and very little normal ones. At least I seem to have a talent to attract assholes and fascists that tell me their world view after a few beer. But this depends on the bar and the area. It's not all happy happy live.
You can also use it to do this:

> Provide summary of the Jira #123

> Summarize sprint review page
(confluence page)

> Summarize our sprint retrospective notes

> Summarize our sprint planning page
(confluence page)

> Gather training resources from our Confluence

> Summarize the defects in our backlog related to user authentication

> Perform root-cause analysis for Jira #123
(Check Jira, check GitHub/GitLab, find broken code)

> What is our process for documentation?
(will check confluence and outline summary for code documentation)
Haha exactly! Except I didnt bother to publish mine on chromewebstore, it's just on gitlab: https://gitlab.com/natural_aliens/geminiwrap_plugin ...it makes Gemini-Chat voice dictation a bit more useful.

My other one, the remove-youtube-shorts, is almost an one-liner, so I didnt even publish it it's too trivial I think. Everyone just make your own!
The definition of agi is a linguistic problem but people confuse it for a philosophical problem. Think about it. The term is basically just a classification and what features and qualities fit the classification is an arbitrary and linguistic choice.

The debate stems from a delusion and failure to realize that people are simply picking and choosing different fringe features on what qualifies as agi. Additionally the term exists in a fuzzy state inside our minds as well. It’s not that the concept is profound. It’s that some of the features that define the classification of the term we aren’t sure about. But this doesn’t matter because we are basically just unsure about the definition of a term that we completely made up arbitrarily.

For example the definition of consciousness seems like a profound debate but it’s not. The word consciousness is a human invention and the definition is vague because we choose the definition to be ill defined, vague and controversial.

Much of the debate on this stuff is purely as I stated just a language issue.
The AI bubble as of now is nothing compared to the dotcom bubble. The only real reflection of it is in the nVidia stock price. We're not seeing IPOs of companies making no revenue and being valued in billions. It is all mag 7 capex going into nVidia.

Private startups having high valuations is completely irrelevant. VCs getting wiped out is not relevant for the wider economy.
I've been itching to use jj for real but the lack of a dedicated Neovim plugin killed my enthusiasm a bit.

Yes, regular git plugins sort-of mostly works, but it's different enough to introduce a lot of painful edges when you do.
My personal experience is that knowing the source of ubiquitous annoyances or health issues much more bearable.

I had issues breathing around Corona and that stuck for 3 years. 1.5 years into that and after running from doctor to doctor I was cleared from a fear that it could be lung cancer or some shit. Still don't know what it is, but that helped tremendously.

I was smelling a sweet smeel for a month until I discovered that my neighbour grows weed. I was going mad because that seriously never crossed my mind cause he was never the type to smoke. And thought I am imagining stuff. Once I knew that, it was just a minor nuisance.

So the fact that this treatment of accepting the voices helps is easy to believe for me.
I'd say 3. is more of a "because there's the record label wanting to sell it"
I'm too scared to download extensions, so I use bookmarklets (on Firefox).

But I like your suggestion of using ChatGPT to write extensions.
Why do you think that was?
My previous customer insisted that documentation (Javadoc in particular) was Bad and should be Avoided. Because "code should be self documenting". It's such a stupid fallacy. I could not convince them to even add the bare minimum of class-level documentation (explaining what the purpose is of a given class and how it fits into the bigger picture). This is all fine and well today, when you're working on that code base. But three years down the line when you have to go back to fix a bug ... good luck remembering how the ConfabulatingFooService relates to the ChristmasLights system.
The question becomes one of politics: how much does each EU member care? I'm reminded about the old joke about the difference between ham and eggs being that the chicken is involved but the pig is committed.

Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states are "committed" in that they regard the risk of a Russian invasion as real, and have seen occasional incursions by Russian flights and even missiles. If it comes to a fight between self-defence and the deficit limit, they're just going to have to break the limit.

Germany, on the other hand, has been very comfortable taking Russian bribes and gas, as well as being uncomfortable with re-arming, so they've been lagging behind on the project.

Maybe there will be another "incident". France has already been reporting attempts of sabotage against their railway network.
sigh feed readers set the If-Modified-Since header so that the feed is only resent when there are new items.
One of the specific things I’d also like to emphasize, being in this industry, is that people often misjudge how to make their software secure. Yes, it involves caring and some level of quality of course, but you can write a perfect, well-designed, award winning app that people love with all the care that goes into that. That won’t stop NSO Group from completely and utterly hacking it. So to some extent yes it is a problem of not caring enough about your software but I want to make it clear that it’s not something your average developer can fix if they just tried harder. You need someone who is an expert in this stuff involved. This is different from UI design in that you can kind of work through it yourself with the appropriate amount of effort. In security, if you don’t actually know what you’re doing, you will do it wrong regardless of how hard you try. Even the people who know what they’re doing make plenty of mistakes. There is some basic tribal knowledge that I’m sure you’re familiar with (“parse, don’t validate”, “principle of lowest privilege”, “type systems and memory safety prevent bugs”) but you can’t really peer pressure someone into making secure software if they’re past the point of not being completely incompetent.
This food looks too good to be real — and it is
Wasn't there some statistics showing that 90% of AI startups fail within a year, and others showing that is was perhaps closer to 85% in the first three? Both a rather bad, especially considering the amount of money these startups burn.

I don't think it's unreasonable to see investments go down, if the risk remains this high, for little to no profit.
Ask HN: Test thoses that say LLM are just for easy things
Motivation: In the post [1], GPT-5 is behind schedule (wsj.com), user jacobolus posted a comment [2] about LLM are not useful for tricky or obscure questions.

I am thinking about creating a page for testing those claims. Perhaps something similar already exists. Anyway, I think that page could be useful to determine whether, in general, LLM are useful for deep questions.

Obviously, that page should use an ensemble of the best models and there should be limits to the number of models, time and budget for computation. That costs real money.

I think the battle between editor and contributors to wikipedia and LLMs is going to be fierce once the LLMs get to the level to question the basic assumptions of editors in their respective fields.

Edited: Edited a lot.

[1] GPT-5 is behind schedule (wsj.com)
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-gpt5-orion-delays-639e7693

[2] Excerpt: I've never gotten an answer from an LLM to a tricky or obscure question about a subject I already know anything about that seemed remotely competent.
I agree. I think this is due to the following rules :

1. run everything above the standards without compromise.

2. having a production-independant control organization to monitor that everything is done according to 1. And that has the power to shutdown a plant.
Offline Reinforcement Learning for LLM Multi-Step Reasoning
As is your comment.
Thanks for being someone who actually knows this stuff among all the Dunning Kruger replies
As a consumer you should always evaluate the product that is in front of you, not the one they promise in 6 months. If what's there is valuable to you, then that's great.

When we discuss the potential AGI we're not talking as consumers, we're talking about the business side. If AGI is not reached, you'll see an absolutely enormous market correction, as it realizes that the product is not going to replace any human workers.

The current generation of products are not profitable. They're investments towards that AGI dream. If that dream doesn't happen, then the current generation of stuff will disappear too, as it becomes impossible to provide at a cost you'd be comfortable with.
Yeah this highlights an idea that seems increasingly rare today: you should go see a movie/piece of art because it's important to see and not merely because it aligns with your preferences. A good critic can make you understand that.
Local models are GOOD as well, and easy to use (ollama + open web ui). OpenAI has to perform a huge trick in order to stay relevant.
If you like biking, try Turf [1]

It's a swedish game where you take zones with GPS irl. There aren't many german turfers yet but the ones around seems very social. Chat in game and on Discord, starting to organize meetups too. The added benefit is everyone can see where you are and meet up for a chat just there :-)

[1] https://turfgame.com/
And they standardized MTA-STS to ensure that you must use web technologies if you want to use email.
I've just queried all posts from these threads and ran an llm over predictions, see https://eamag.me/2024/HackerNews-Prediction-Evaluator
If you're interested in some scientific background to Software Engineering, I can recommend the book "Making Software" (O'reilly) by Andy Oram & Greg Wilson. It's a bit old now, but addresses and challenges many common beliefs about Software Engineering.

https://www.oreilly.com/library/view/making-software/9780596...
Not sure about that... to me it's more that a dashboard has to be seen as some kind of ever-changing "scrap paper"... it shouldn't be a "product", it should always be evolving with your business / your goals / your tracking etc
I like the UI. Neat.
QEMU microvm

microvm’ virtual platform (microvm)

microvm is a machine type inspired by Firecracker and constructed after its machine model.

It’s a minimalist machine type without PCI nor ACPI support, designed for short-lived guests. microvm also establishes a baseline for benchmarking and optimizing both QEMU and guest operating systems, since it is optimized for both boot time and footprint.

https://www.qemu.org/docs/master/system/i386/microvm.html
I get that this is a huge effort and that it takes a long time for protocol adoption (especially if the big companies aren’t behind it). I don’t know why Fastmail has developed mobile apps but no desktop applications so far. One justification could be higher usage on mobile, but it still leaves desktop users out (of JMAP).

Without more email clients supporting it, mail providers don’t have any incentive to support JMAP. Mozilla Thunderbird started looking at JMAP but hasn’t progressed on that all these years.

> In 10 years time, I hope to post about how Cyrus and JMAP have taken over the world

I believe the biggest hurdles are other email clients and providers not adopting it. The biggest threat is Microsoft, as usual, pushing its own protocols and client and using FUD to brainwash CIOs into believing that any protocol outside its own is a major security threat that just cannot be handled.

If either Apple or Google could be convinced to implement and support JMAP, this could take off a lot faster.
No, because your readers are still blocked by writers and still randomly fail if you forgot to set busy_timeout, which is something at least one person didn't they had to do until they read this comment.
Sure, we can create a website that says "AI is useful for complex things", but will it actually make it true? People say that it is only usable for trivial stuff due to their experiences - all AI tools fumble at most marginally complex tasks and questions. Change the experience of the people, and their opinion will change too.
Yeah, creating the marketing screenshots and filling out the publishing form takes longer nowadays then coding the actual extension.
Random probabilities, some I think are certain, others just for fun.

- US abandonment of Ukraine spurs EU to make major change in military posture, spending (leaders will be Poland, France)

- Wide spread unrest in Europe, focused on cultural integration of immigrants from abroad/aforementioned military spending

- China tests US response to Taiwan under Trump with significant but limited escalation

- Israel expands operations in Syria and Lebanon

- Bitcoin to $50k

- Open Source LLM takes lead in ARC benchmark

- Sporadic civil unrest in US, focused on corporations. 2 more CEOs killed. Domestic terrorism significantly galvanized.

- CAD/USD continues to fall, Canadian dollar to US$0.65

- Trump makes some sort of insane offer to integrate Canada to Pierre Poilievre
If Apple, as rumored, ships an HomeKit hub with a screen I can see the category warming up. Sadly it seems that a lot of IoT/Smart Home companies avoids supporting HomeKit as they want to be in control of data collection and the ecosystem in general.
We Need Mindful Strategies for Digital Dependancy and Technology Use
Dumb question, but how do you use SQLite on kubernetes? Indeed SQLite doesn't work over NFS (and I guess other remote file shares) so how do you share access to it to other pods?
Fully agree, though I feel there are some nuances with third party dependencies. Consider the following:

Some third party dependencies are so widely adopted and supported, they are on-par with the main framework you are using in terms of support and development. They often don't lag the main framework in supporting new versions for long. I don't think these kinds of dependencies have the same drawbacks. You only have a couple at this level anyway, and should choose them carefully.

There are also dependencies that solve one particular problem well and very narrowly couple to a specific feature in your product. If they become problematic over time, it is easy to just replace them or even rewrite it yourself. Specifically, you could select these judging how well you could maintain the sourcecode yourself in such an event. Often, these are easy to extend as the focus is so specific. You can consider just adding it to your codebase and thinking of these dependencies as your code, except that it is written by someone else.
Most of them. Are you constantly doing validation studies for every piece of information you take in? If the independent experts tell me that a new car is safe to drive, then I trust them.
It absolutely does not look the same. You instinctively know that what you see is just acting. I somehow don't believe that you have seen a real video of a person getting shot or beheaded or sucked into a lathe. Seeing a life getting wiped out is emotionally completely different because that's more than a picture you are emotionally processing. It looks only the same if you have zero empathy or are a psychopath.
Wholeheartedly agree, but there is a lot of non sensible software out there ;-)
Water under the bridge. Nobody serious proposes the eradication of European honey bees in North America, nor cites them as a reason to not manage other invasive species.
At this point, most conceivable beneficial use cases for LLMs have been covered. If the economics of AI tech were aligned with making a good product that people want and/or need, we'd basically take everything we have at this point and make it lighter, smaller, and faster. I doubt that's what will happen.
Not interested in blaming psychology or anything else. Just wanted to know why you sound so sure of that.

Regardless of whether psychology is effective or not quite, I think epistemic hell is involved. Very good explanation: https://www.secretorum.life/p/epistemic-hell
No doubt JMAP is superior for the problem it solves. I wonder if it will matter in the end though. I have the impression MS is positioning it self to be the only viable AI platform where mail and calendars are just a tiny part of that. So while not really competing in the same domain it may be that both IMAP and JMAP may feel as relevant to the world as IRC or XMPP in the not too distant future.
MySQL doesn't care about your data. There are many places where it silently truncates, "helpfully" tries to "do the right thing" and so on.

It used to have very impoverished data types. At least that has been mostly amended, but AFAIK you still can't make an index on a TEXT column without a limit.

The "utf8" text type, despite the name, can't hold all of unicode. You need to use utf8mb4. This is merely one example of the general attitude. Another fine example: you can't use mysql_escape_string() in the C API to safely escape strings. Instead, use mysql_real_escape_string(). Instead of hiding the unsafe version, PHP exposes both these functions as-is. PHP and MySQL are truly a match made in hell.

The MySQL issue queue is also littered with unaddressed corruption issues which have been open for many years.

MariaDB is just a fork, most criticisms to MySQL apply to it as well.
Also if anyone wants to uses an extension I would much rather they make the minuscule effort to create a local folder, put the files in there, and load the extension's folder with the chrome extension mgr. Maybe even they can peek at the source code...
I really don't see why I'd have to push my name, address, email etc on some google storefront and submit myself to spam reviews at the big "google-internet" party in the cloud.
I think it's just procedural languages with a lack of magic.
There are a couple of places where macOS still has Aqua-style icons. Not sure I should name them in case someone sees this and removes them, but... eh... set up a VPN but leave the credentials blank so you're prompted when you connect: that dialog has a beautiful icon.

It looks _just fine_ on a Retina display.

When Retina displays were introduced with the iPhone 4, gel-style iOS also looked just fine.

In print, we're interacting with paper and a fake reflective style looks odd. On a computer, we're interacting with glass and something reflective or high-detail feels very suitable. It matches the look to the medium.
There are different meanings to Stammtisch. What you describe is more like a regular meetup around a special topic. Those are not marked as Stammtisch in the pub, altough attendees call it like that.

The other meaning is high alcohol consumption and extreme populist opinions. That's the Stammtisch of the pub.
70% is not the end of the world for a single company stock. Plenty have done similar and come out on top (Apple, Meta, Carvana, Netflix, etc.).

BTC market cap is lower than nVidia, Apple or MS. But that is not important, what it should really be compared to is gold and compared to that it is an upstart at current price levels.

BTC has no utility other than being digital gold. Other crypto currencies have no utility either.
OK, that covers the first 3 weeks of January, so technically true.
Show HN: A serveless private NPM registry that you can selfhost
lol this was not at all obvious to me at first glance from the framing of 'choose a server', but I guess that's the whole value proposition of activitypub is it doesn't matter what server I started on.
Monorepo setup with TypeScript, Tailwind, NextJS and WXT, with shared components
kind reminder that timothy snyder isn’t held in great regard by other historians, even by right-wing ones—so, basically his own camp. especially on methodological grounds, omer bartov and richard evans have called out his use of chronological juxtaposition, saying it implies connections between events without enough evidence. this, along with other critiques, makes it an entertaining hundred page maybe, but not great value.