skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Market efficiency follows a lot of the same laws as evolution, and I think the author identifies the same fallacy many do about evolution: that there is some implied natural progression to perfection or negentropy.

You don't need to be perfectly efficient to survive; you don't even need to be the most efficient. You just need to be efficient enough in your niche to make it another day. As environments/markets change, the measure for efficiency does as well. Adapt or die.

The problem with build vs buy in general is that evaluating software is hard and there are a ton of variables whose values are often only clear in hindsight. Not only does the thing have to work, it has to work in a way that will scale with how you use it. Also, when comparing it to build, you have to know whether you have the right expertise (and interest) in-house to do what you want. There's also straight up timing considerations. There's really no formula to this, but at the end of the day you have to acknowledge that there's always going to be a slight misalignment of incentives between you and your vendor. You need a working product; the vendor wants your money. People want to believe these end up being the same thing, but especially for startups that aren't thinking past their next sales cycle this simply isn't true.
Can’t go down this line of discussion unless you and I can agree that in the 117th Congress of the United States there were these many Senators of each party affiliation.

50 Republican Senators

48 Democratic Senators

2 Independent Senators

And that integers can be ordered on a number scale which allows for integers to be placed on a deterministic scale where the number 50 is larger than the number 48 and thus cannot be considered the majority in any system where the two numbers are part of the same super set.

If you can agree to those statements of fact I can go into the nuance with you, but if you want to call that a Democratic majority and treat it the same as having an actually majority, then I have no interest in further discussion
I'll leave this here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yO6iS5kFOc
Have you ever used LLMs to generate code? It's not good enough yet.

In addition to this, most companies aren't willing to give away all off their proprietary IP and knowledge through 3rd party servers.

It will be awhile before engineering jobs are at risk.
The CCP is a scourge on humanity, predominately in their own country; whereas the US establishment* is also a scourge, but its evils are off-shored. US and China also have powerful propaganda models that control information. Silencing opposition inside of the country is not the way to win a war -- educating people about it and letting them make up their own mind is the only way out of furthering a "censorship industrial complex".

1 - neoliberals, neoconservatives, fundamentalist zionists, other "factions" composing the majority of those who largely want the warfare/welfare state
Something similar happened when Rails showed up. Lots of people were able to build somewhat complex websites than ever before.

But there are still specialized people being paid for doing websites today.
> The answer is obviously yes: There is a very pervasive expectation that LLM's will continue to improve, and it seems odd to suggest otherwise. There is hundreds of billions of dollars being spent on AI training and that number is increasing each year.

That makes an assumption that throwing dollars on AI training is a surefire way to solve the many shortcomings of LLMs. It is a very optimistic assumption.

> Why wouldn't there be? AI's are currently trained on the internet but that's obviously not the only source of data.

"The Internet" basically encompasses all meaningful sources of data available, especially if we are talking specifically about software development. But even beyond that, it is very unclear what other high quality data it would consume that would improve the things.

> The answer to this, is also yes. It is well established that, all else being equal, a bigger model is better than a smaller model, assuming that the smaller model hasn't already captured all of the available information.

I love how you conveniently sidestepped the part where I ask if it would improve the pervasive issue of generating plausibly sounding bullshit.

The assumption that generative AI will improve is as valid as the assumption that it will plateau. It is quite possible that what we are seeing is "as good as it gets", and some major breakthrough, that may or may not happen on our lifetime, is needed.
There is some amount of controversy of the EHT imaging process because there are pretty strong priors backed into it (like a lot of modern physics observations, e.g. LIGO)-- and at least one group suggests that you get a similar looking donut observation if you just feed noise into their imaging process.
Poker had always had a bad reputation. Has nothing to do with the Internet, just gambling in general.
Mad respect indeed. I am not in the target audience for this project, but I just read through the contributing.md page. It is very well written, everything he says makes sense

If there's an issue that affects 3% of users doing something arcane which can be fixed by either a large chunk of code or just by not doing that arcane thing, the latter will be the preferred solution.
just curious, why do use protobuf instead of flatbuffers?
Clickbait: this is a tiny and trivial source, and there's no link with drones—that's pure speculation in the HN-edited title, it's not in the nrc.gov source (or anywhere else).
What other hoops to satisfy you do you want me to jump through?
Agreed, I was debating whether or not this was relevant to mention.

What I could have added was a caveat that sample non-obese people from each time would indicate that 2024 people have greater average muscle mass.

Personally, a more interesting question is whether growth along the Kardashev scale leads to a greater disparity in muscle mass vs body fat. The past 100 years would seem to indicate that it is possible. That being said, it could also be a uniquely American phenomenon. My hypothesis would be that avg muscle mass among French men has still grown over the past 100 years but I don't think obesity has grown to the extreme that it has in the USA.
Feel. I think it's mostly the case that people who play rock are not constantly counting to figure out where they are in a measure. In fact, I'd imagine that's the case for a lot of jazz players too.
Will it be as good as the Foxconn one? https://www.theverge.com/23030465/foxconn-lcd-factory-wiscon...
> the trick is knowing why its undervalued and if that valuation is justified.

If it’s justified, then it’s not undervalued.

Everything you described above is also just wrong and you should please stop encouraging uneducated retail investors to believe anything that fits these heuristics is “objectively undervalued”.
Palantir – Battles are won before they begin
Have you considered handing off the forums to someone based outside of the UK? I'm sure you might be able to find a reasonable steward and divest without leaving your users stranded. You've worked very hard and have something to be proud of, I would hate to see it go.
America voted for stupid.
> Like most things in life, a little outsourcing never hurt anybody but a lot can kill your company.

there are amazing companies which have fully outsourced all of their development. this trend is on the rise and might hit $1T market cap in this decade…
exactly... just getting rid of boilerplate on syntax feels so friendly with the tiny humans

we should also don't forget that learning for its own sake, sometimes, is the meaning/end of pedagogy; not luring them to the professional path of computer science/programming
Was this a non sequitor? Not entirely sure how it’s related to my comment
Poker, while considered a game of skill, had a direct connection to gambling, and hence the negative connotation.
Poker isn't very interesting of it isn't played for stakes (whether it is money or something else) in fact what is the point to it, if you aren't playing for something?
I mean 'tables' inside 'tables', 0NF. If I have a list of restaurants with their reviews, naturally, I have a table of restaurants, each of which contains a table of reviews. If I have a table of nested comments, naturally, I have a table of comments, each of which recursively contains a table of child comments.

Those are some of the most common use cases for data presentation; and SQL-based DBs are not flexible enough to handle them in a straightforward way.
Sir, take it from a random person on the internet, you're more than kind. Thank you so much for the details and bits of your own experience to make it relatable.
Even though I have many Kasa switches I do want the option 3 that was raised earlier. Again, many thanks.
Yeah I was hoping for this too. But sadly it wont let you turn it on..
How to Code a Shader Based Reveal Effect with React Three Fiber and GLSL
Exactly of… what?

It’s still unclear why any of your ‘say so’ even matters more than my ‘say so’.
Introducing Sociology
It's not just whether you were close to the deceased; it's do you know the survivors. I've attended funerals where I never met the deceased but knew a survivor.
The M87 jet can be optically imaged by amateurs too, here is an image I took using a 400mm (focal length) f/2.8 camera lens, a cooled cmos sensor, and many hours of observation: https://nt4tn.net/astro/M87jet.png

The image is a crop and contrast boost of this image: https://nt4tn.net/astro/virgo2.jpg

Light pollution renders such observations increasingly difficult, of course... but Marin's ban on outdoor advertising at least makes it possible here, unlike much of the bay area where stars can hardly be observed at all.
America had an option between voting for stupid or stupid - hence the results are not surprising :)
McDonald's functions as sort of public square, which is missing elsewhere in society, as the employees are to detached or inattentive to care if people are loitering too long. Same for Starbucks.
i'm not worried, because as a solid senior engineer my "training data" largely is not digitized or consumable by a model yet. I don't think we will have enough data in the near future to threaten my entire job, only support me in the easier parts of it.
Thanks for the feedback and the specific model suggestion!

Compared to the replicate/modal solutions our big focus is to ensure you don't experience rate limits. We want to ensure you get a good quality of service no matter what.

When it comes to requesting and running specific models, we won't ask you to pay extra just because there's lower demand for that specific model (which it sounds like other providers are doing). We manage scaling up and down instances for the models on your behalf to make sure you get good performance at a fair price point, so you don't have to worry about making the costs work.
The other example in the parent comment was about fuel economy and trucks. They're just generalized laws about unintended consequences.

I used to walk and ride my bike to school. I was in 4th grade. 9 years old.

You show me a 9-year-old walking alone to school today, and I'll show you a parent who's getting investigated for child neglect. It's maddening.

So that chain of consequences means today's kids are meant to be watched 24/7, and that usually means they're cooped up inside. They're still facing "Stranger Danger" (except through Snap or whatever games they're playing), and now they're also in poorer health.
I’ve carved out a niche of very low level systems programming and optimization. I think it’ll be awhile before LLMs can do what I do. I also moved to to staff so I think a lot of what I do now will still exist with junior/mid level devs being reduce by AI.

But I am focusing on maximizing my total comp so I can retire in 10-15 years if I need to. I think most devs are underestimating where this is eventually going to go.
> an automated tool doing a complex ammount of steps that you'd normally expect an average-ish worker to do for you on a RELIABLE rate basis. I.E. Doing your taxes like your accountant or 10 year old hopefully does.

Seems to be the definition they're using. Which is a high bar, in my opinion - but it does illustrate the difficulty current systems will have in meeting an exceptionally high bar of quality (human-grade).

Defining it this way and exploring percentage task failure compared to typical (expert?) human doing the same work is valuable insight, in my opinion.

On the other hand, you can define agents as anything that does tool calling, but then it's trivial to create an agent but still non-trivial to meet expectations of the typical consumer because you aren't observing their failure rates.
It's not just steroids and replacement testosterone.

I recall certain classes of drugs that make mice into muscle-bound warriors, I believe using a different pathway then steroids.
There's been a lot more reflective, humanity stories on HN.

Or maybe I'm just noticing more.

I've been on HN since 2007.

There was that story a few weeks ago with the aging parents and their daughter that took a picture of them waving goodbye, each year she visited.

I like these stories. It gives me pause and to wonder what it's all been for.

Probably for my kids. My second oldest (9) loves creating levels in Geometry Dash. He'll probably be an engineer.

He asks great questions. He can teach himself new tricks from YouTube videos. He asks for critical feedback on his levels. That's a good start.

I'm just rambling.
I'd say the success of REST kind of proves that's something that for the most part can be worked around. Often comes down to the JSON codec itself, many codecs will allow unmarshalling/marshalling fields straight into long int types.

Also JS now has BigInt types and the JSON decoder can be told to use them. So I'd argue it's kind of a moot point at this stage.
You might be thinking of https://lem-project.github.io/
Exactly. Using electric drives for reconnaissance is a highly sensible thing and only just becoming truly feasible. There’s also a gain for using hybrids and their batteries to charge electronics in the field rather than using generators. The US military was looking into electric drive not because it’s ‘green’ but because it can provide a combat advantage.

This sort of knee jerk reaction that bans them from even considering it is stupid.
Do you have a citation for that? People may have said words to that effect in addition to inciting rioting, but no one has been send to jail for saying that.
"Good Advice for Satan's Kingdom" --William Blake
No, I do mean precisely the average muscle mass is higher. Granted we are dealing with statistics. There is inevitably a lot more context than just a myopic focus on this single fact.

Dated but still relevant:
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/evolution-bmi-values-us-adult...

This is particular relevant in the military because your fitness level is graded relative to you BMI. Hence, it is common trope one hears in the military. It is a practical question in the military. If the BMI is based on 1950's pilots and today's soldiers have a higher average BMI, then it can have an impact on promotions, fitness scores, health assessments, etc.
> I would be surprised if your first program was C++? Specifically, getting a decent C++ toolchain that can produce a meaningful program is not a small thing?

Visual C++ (some version) was in a book I received as a gift in high school, it was my second language after BASIC (some version on a Tandy running MS-DOS). It was not hard to set up. You ran the installer, you had the language set up. If someone had ended up in the same situation as me but without the BASIC experience, I could see it being an easy to set up (not easy to learn) first language.
My understanding is that what counts as fair use is not well defined because litigation is expensive and publishers don't want to take a gamble, go to court, and potentially lose or have large legal fees to deal with.
yes, this. the backlog of software that needs to be built is fucking enormous.

you know what i'd do if AI made it so i could replace 10 devs with 8? use the 2 newly-freed up developers to work on some of the other 100000 things i need done
Is it just me, or is Ruby experiencing a renaissance of sorts? There has been a bunch of positive press, and the community seems more active and vibrant than ever?
Its true that anise is pretty unpopular. I grew up loving black licorice so its always been a nice treat to me, but the vast majority of people I know hate that taste and are pretty adamant about it.
What makes you believe that commercial pilot is safer from AI than software engineering?
Neat! I was looking for something like this the other day.

Some feedback on the Dockerfiles - I'd recommend instead of trying to mount in the source code as volumes, clone the repo in the Docker build process. That will be a lot more reliable and make it easier for people to deploy.

You'll also need to call out if any volumes are required to be mounted to persist data (config files, sqlite databases, cache etc...)

E.g. something like this -

Dockerfile.backend:

FROM python:3.12

RUN apt-get update && apt-get install -y git && apt-get clean && rm -rf /var/lib/apt/lists/*
RUN git clone --depth=1 https://github.com/PySpur-Dev/PySpur.git /pyspur

WORKDIR /pyspur/backend
RUN pip install -r requirements.txt

VOLUME ["/data"]
CMD ["bash", "/pyspur/backend/entrypoint.sh"]

Dockerfile.frontend:

FROM node:alpine

RUN apk add --no-cache git
RUN git clone --depth=1 https://github.com/PySpur-Dev/PySpur.git /pyspur

WORKDIR /pyspur/frontend
RUN npm install

CMD [ "npm", "run", "serve"]
> Ramirez died of heatstroke, according to medical examiner records. From his exposure on the job. Workplace regulators, however, didn’t investigate what happened. That’s because TruScapes didn’t tell them he’d died.

Sounds like the solution here is to have "Was he working at the time of his death?" be a question the ME routinely asks people who might be in a position to know -- family, employer, the medics who brought him in.

Now if the employer lies, (a) they look super sus if they say "no" and the family and medics both say "yes," (b) now it's not a case of "You failed to file a report you should have filed," it's a case of "You lied to the government in an official inquiry." Which is much easier to prove, and carriers much harsher penalties.

Of course, there might be complications [1] [2] related to maybe-illegal immigrants with maybe-under-the-table jobs, where the state maybe-doesn't-want to inquire too closely.

[1] You'll make the left mad if you make policy that says "Death investigations routinely generate records that the federal government can subpoena for the names and addresses of people who might not be in the US legally."

[2] You'll make the right mad if you make policy that says "You have to competently investigate maybe-questionable deaths at maybe-illegal-immigrant-employing companies." Because the pro-business types say the economy needs those companies to function, and the companies need illegal immigrants to function -- but the pro-border types say the illegal immigrants must go. Meaning there's a political incentive for a policy of "The government should have some strategic incuriosity about these sorts of deaths," since such a "See No Evil" policy keeps both constituent groups on-side.
Yes, and I said that explicitly in my post.

The difference is in my post it is one of the featured things. In the article that claims to show what the program actually did it is buried in the text.
I assume Dan Luu was using the old “XMIN” method and not Logical Replication.

https://fivetran.com/docs/connectors/databases/postgresql/tr...
> Should we build larger codebases just because we _can_?

The history of software production as a profession (as against computer science) is essentially a series of incremental increases in the size and complexity of systems (and teams) that don't fall apart under their own weight. There isn't much evidence we have approached the limit here, so it's a pretty good bet for at least the medium term.

But focusing on system size is perhaps a red herring. There is an almost unfathomably vast pool of potential software systems (or customization of systems) that aren't realized today because they aren't cost effective...
I also don’t think Docker can do ARP network interrogation, though I could be wrong about that. Also not sure how it handles mDNS.
> Do you think harmful behavior from anywhere online other than large platforms is spilling out into the real world in a way that the Online Safety Act will prevent?

I have no idea.

If you're thinking of how to protect the fediverse, my solution (which I intend to use if I am kicked off mainstream social media because of this or other regulations in the UK) is to run my own server, only allowing people I know personally to have accounts on that server, and federating with other servers. Federation may be a grey area in this law - it'll be interesting to see how that plays out, if it ever goes to court.
BDFL is burnt out and depressed. I think he's better now (he recently did a podcast), but still no updates for five years.
wait do you have one of the 12 Cellini Principias?
> if it's so obvious, someone at the company would have fixed the issue or another company would've come along and won based on being more efficient or better

I think there's two kind of people at any tech company. There's the kind of person who has removed an unused piece of cloud infrastructure that nobody remembered existed but whose spend was north of $50k / month, and there's the kind of person who does not believe such a thing could possibly happen.
Some PM is literally sitting on this release waiting for their benchmarks to finish
It doesn’t have to understand anything, none of these demonstrate reasoning or understanding.

All these models have just “seen” enough videos of all those things to build a probability distribution to predict the next step.

This is not bad, or make it inherently dumb, a major component of human intelligence is built on similar strategies.
I couldn’t tell what grammatical rules are broken in text or what physical rules in a photograph but can tell it is wrong using the same methods .

Inference can take it far with large enough data sets, but sooner or later without reasoning you will hit a ceiling .

This is true for humans as well, plenty of people go far in life with just memorization and replication do a lot of jobs fairly competently, but not in everything.

Reasoning is essential for higher order functions and transformers is not the path for that
Agreed, there is an economic factor here but I would see that is highly correlated with the Kardashev grade of a civilization. The conjecture of the OP is that higher Kardashev grade will result in higher atrophy. My claim is that we seem to find precisely the opposite to be true.

I'm not making a counter-argument to the OP's position. I'm only making a refutation of the conjecture.
I've gone to the funeral of a community leader who I only met a couple of times, but the stories of their life and seeing how they had touched the people around them was inspiring and I hold those stories dearly and feel the loss of the community. Hardly insincere.
He can, but it's hard for him

> “When people watch me play sometimes, they say, ‘you look pained’. I am pained because I’m trying to count the bars,”
> resulting drinks contained nasty chemicals (notably methanol).

This is a popular myth for two reasons:

- you can’t make enough methanol to harm you through fermentation alone. Stories of methanol poisoning are more likely due to unscrupulous bootleggers adding it in.

- you can’t separate methanol from ethanol using fractional distillation. There are things that do fraction out, like fusel oils. Methanol isn’t one of them.

This means that the ratio of methanol to ethanol in the distilled drink will be pretty much the same as in the unfermented version. It is higher in ferments done with fruit skin, but not possible to actually harm yourself, especially in the presence of ethanol, which is used to treat methanol poisoning.