skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
https://tsunami.gov/?page=message_definitions

A warning, the highest level, means “a tsunami with the potential to generate widespread inundation is imminent, expected, or occurring.”

The actual criteria are here:

https://tsunami.gov/operations/opsmanual.pdf (Section 3)

Note that the level of initial alert for an area is influenced by both the magnitude of the quake and the distance/time from quake to the area the alert covers.

> I wonder if the Tsunami situation with all the under water variables is a lot more unknown?

Yeah,I don't think there is anything as clear and with the coverage of radar for tsunamis, and warning when you see one is going to be too late.
I agree with you that I want a non-magic approach. I want to understand the nitty gritty so I am building my code with solid foundations based on how the actual hardware works.

However, this is not an approach that works for the masses. The vast majority of programmers are quite happy to work at the surface level and they can tackle a huge amount of the work doing things I consider too easy to be interesting. That's good, because I can't motivate myself to do that boring stuff either.

You are right that baby steps is always the way. Especially good when you can get something basic working, then test & iterate.
And the US exports from China and tens of other countries through corporations
It's definitely not impossible. I think the increase competition they've begun to face over the last year is helping as a deterrent. If people notice GPT 4 sucks now and they can get Claude 3.5 Sonnet for the same price, they'll move. If the user doesn't care enough to move, they weren't going to upgrade anyway.
In practice on Zen1 and Zen3 I found HT to provide 20% to 25%.

It seems some benchmarks are as high as 50% with zen5.

AMD really improved HT with Zen 5 by adding a second instruction decoder per core. I expect even better per-thread performance from Zen 6.
Normal polling errors would lead you to believe that the actual results would fall equally and normally on both sides of the polling forecast. But they don't. The polling error is nearly always in one direction. Polling consistently underreports support for Trump in every case where we have actual results. We don't have this problem with other candidates, or even with other types of polls. There are theories about "low propensity voters" and maybe they don't show up in polls, but I suspect the real reason is more complex than that and involves some amount of self-reported filtering because of the demonization of Trump.
Also, does that currently mean that the backend will be Javascript?

In the browser we have no choice, but I prefer to prevent that accident from spreading to my servers.
It is also why a lot of people in the fitness industry don't like CrossFit. The rate of injuries is absurdly high. For the longest time (maybe still) CrossFit had very minimal certification requirements for their coaches, so while some coaches had a long history and knew how to train safely, a lot didn't.

CrossFit did the community part really well, and then messed up the entire "train safely" part.
Perhaps people who enjoy less sweet foods don’t eat too much sugar.
Well that's terrifying. Good luck to them.
>Why not send only to phones currently in and maybe within 250m of those zones?

There's often significant lag between the earthquake and the arrival time. You don't just want the people in the inundation zone to know, you also want everyone else to know to stay away.

That's not just a theoretical edge case. If this had been a major tsunami your system would have killed me just now. I would have been outside of your suggested range and alone at the time of the alert, but was planning to walk my dog along the water front at noon, which was just around the projected arrival time.
AI simulation gives people a glimpse of their potential future self
There was a study recently that made it clear the use of LLMs for coding assistance made people feel more productive but actually made them less productive.

EDIT: Added links.

https://www.cio.com/article/3540579/devs-gaining-little-if-a...

https://web.archive.org/web/20241205204237/https://llmreport...

(Archive link because the llmreporter site seems to have an expired TLS certificate at the moment.)

No improvement to PR throughput or merge time, 41% more bugs, worse work-life balance...
Sauron, a new home-security system for the terrified tech elite
Bluesky CEO Jay Graber isn't ruling out advertising
No they're right. ChatGPT (and all chargers) responds confidently while making simple errors. Disclaimers upon signup or in tiny corner text are so at odds with the actual chat experience.
The Getting Started docs recommend against using vanilla React and nudge you towards NextJS and similar frameworks because you're gonna end up needing that stuff eventually https://react.dev/learn/start-a-new-react-project

So new projects have to actively not follow the recommended approach in the docs if they want to use vanilla React.
> Cores are great, but it's all about how you slice them. Don't think of this as a single 192-core server. Think of it more like 48 dedicated 4-core servers in one box. And each of those servers has 10 gigs of high-speed RAM and consistent performance.

Suddenly it sounds less impressive ...
Will this mean that the "free" and $20 "regular person" offerings
will start to degrade to push more people into the $200 offering?
In the video Jeff mentions that the EPYC CPU wins in performance per watt but not per dollar because it's 3x the cost.
Exactly. When you make the CEO responsible for things that they don't have direct visibility into normally it's amazing how suddenly they staff new positions/departments/orgs with competent folks with legitimate resources and power to oversee it properly.

We should not accept large organizations, bureaucracy and lack of visibility as a deference.
Claude Sonnet 3.5 has outperformed o1 in most tasks based on my own anecdotal assessment. So much so that I'm debating canceling my ChatGPT subscription. I just literally do not use it anymore, despite being a heavy user for a long time in the past
> earthquake predictions

because we can't currently predict earthquakes?

and if we can with AGI we would be saving lives?
I bet users won't pay for the power, but for a guarantee of access! I always hear about people running out of compute time for ChatGPT. Obvious answer is charge more for a higher quality service.
This sounds extremely confounded by lifestyle, socioeconomic status, and overall diet. The kinds of people who eat dark chocolate are clearly a self-selected bunch of outliers. Even though they tried to correct for some of these covariates, I'm personally going to take these results with a pinch of salted chocolate.

To be fair, the authors do acknowledge these limitations of their methodology, and these kinds of studies are a useful part of the overall enterprise of science to explore and propose hypotheses.

> First, we cannot entirely rule out the role of confounding in our observed associations. We controlled for multiple lifestyle and dietary covariates that might confound the associations of interest, although residual or unmeasured confounding, or both, may still exist owing to the observational nature of the analysis.

Regardless, I'll go ahead and take this finding as a further justification to keep eating dark chocolate.
I think the point is that an LLM almost always responds with the appearance of high confidence. It will much quicker hallucinate than say "I don't know."
Sigh.

I've lost 15 minutes already because of your comment, and am on track to lose CARROT only knows how much more.

Not only did you prompt me to download CARROT weather, I was foolish enough to set it on the "overkill" personality setting. I was amused by the banter until I found the "achievements" section. Then I saw that there was an achievement for downloading the Vision Pro app, so of course I had to get that one.

I thought it was going to be difficult resisting enslaving myself to the will of CARROT on my iPad... woo boy. I wasn't prepared for the Neal Stephenson-flavored counterfeit GLaDOS that awaited me in visionOS.
I think what is going to happen in the next two-to-three years is that the productivity applications for the general masses will finally be ready for mainstream use. Currently, I am trying to design better onboarding tools using GenAI to organize and create help guides on the fly for any questions someone may have. It's going to take a lot of hard work and effort and time, but it will happen, that I guarantee. America is just one of those places where I feel stuff like this is what we were brought up to envision and actualize.
If one makes $150 an hour and it saves them 1.25 hours a month, then they break even. To me, it's just a non-deterministic calculator for words.

If it getting things wrong, then don't use it for those things. If you can't find things that it gets right, then it's not useful to you. That doesn't mean those cases don't exist.
A con? It's not that $200 is a con, their whole existence is a con.

They're bleeding money and are desperately looking for a business model to survive. It's not going very well. Zitron[1] (among others) has outlined this.

> OpenAI's monthly revenue hit $300 million in August, and the company expects to make $3.7 billion in revenue this year (the company will, as mentioned, lose $5 billion anyway), yet the company says that it expects to make $11.6 billion in 2025 and $100 billion by 2029, a statement so egregious that I am surprised it's not some kind of financial crime to say it out loud. […] At present, OpenAI makes $225 million a month — $2.7 billion a year — by selling premium subscriptions to ChatGPT. To hit a revenue target of $11.6 billion in 2025, OpenAI would need to increase revenue from ChatGPT customers by 310%.[1]

Surprise surprise, they just raised the price.

[1] https://www.wheresyoured.at/oai-business/
Here in Brazil Apple is very much all about showing off how rich you are. Especially since we have some of the most expensive Apple products in the world.

Maybe not as true in the US, but reading about the green bubble debacle, it's also a lot about status.
lol, same author from the same org with paragraphs copied and pasted from the other source.

did u even read
are you assuming that you can do o1 inference on a single h100?
Common things like ibuprofen, cough medicine, allergy meds- seem fine after 5 years at least. Probably degraded if you leave them in a steel shed in the sun.
Not to be glib, but where do you live such that a single cup of coffee runs you seven USD?

Just to put that into perspective.

I also really don't find comparisons like this to be that useful. Any subscription can be converted into an exchange rate of coffee, or meals. So what?
The problem isn't whether ChatGPT Pro can save you $200/mo (for most programmers it can.)

The problem is whether it can saves you $180/mo more than Claude does.
Natural result of YouTube scholars learning “appeal to authority” logic fallacy - it somehow becomes reasonable to reject any and all authorities while simultaneously accepting any single YouTube video as truth.
That’s still amazing quality output for someone working for under $1/hour?
Depends on the kind of aircraft, but there are other options. Cargo are often Boeing because they specialize in that kind of aircraft, and there are a fair number of aircraft that are modified off of Boeing base-aircraft (AWACS was built on the 707; KC-46 the cursed refueler program is built on the 767).

Fighters, bombers, and helicopters are more varied.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_United_States_m...
> A lot of these safety evaluations strike me as pretty silly. How much are we really learning from stuff like this?

This seems like something we're interested in. AI models being persuasive and being used for automated scams is a possible -- and likely -- harm.

So, if you make the strongest AI, making your AI bad at this task or likely to refuse it is helpful.
PWS is tower based broadcast. Everyone within range of a tower gets the alert. Data source is supposed to be local government weather authority, I think USGS and NOAA in US. Or the Meteorological Agency in Japan.

You can do a location-based two way warning system and there are such services, but it's going to be laggy and won't scale to 100M+ simultaneous subscribers. One-way broadcast scales to the planet if wanted.
You were _this_ close!

What’s a CDC?
Yeah, but they can saturate fabs and provide income, which they need. Intel can't produce better CPU/GPU products than their competition now. Their design and manufacturing of CPUs has serious problems for years now. The big money in GPUs is already captured by NVIDIA, and it's hard to see how Intel can challenge that - people want NVIDIA and CUDA. So Intel should cut down and focus the remaining bloat and R&D spending on the areas where it's plausible they can get competitive in a reasonable time. That is CPUs, and maybe memory and SSDs - they have X-Point which was great, just marketed and priced wrong.
Stop using generative AI as a search engine
Indeed. And what is intent anyways?

Would you be able to even tell the difference if you don't know who is the person and who is the ai?

Most people do things they're parroting from their past. A lot of people don't even know why they do things, but somehow you know that a person has intent and an ai doesn't?

I would posit that the only way you know is because of the labels assigned to the human and the computer, and not from their actions.
To be fair, utilizing 192 cores for a single process or operation is often exceedingly difficult. Scheduling and coordination and resource sharing are all really hard with thread counts that high, so you're probably best operating in terms of smaller clusters of 4-16 threads instead. Lots of algorithms stop scaling well around the 8-32 range.
> A con like that wouldn't last very long.

The NFT market lasted for many years and was enormous.

Never underestimate the power of hype.
> I'd imagine they're currently losing a ton of money supplying everyone

I can't tell how much they loose but they also have decent revenue "The company's annualized revenue topped $1.6 billion in December [2023]" https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-hits-2-bln-revenue...
Yeah the industries LLMs will disrupt the most are the ones who gatekeep busywork. SWE falls into this to some degree but other professions are more guilty than us. They dont replace intelligence they just surface jobs which never really required much intelligence to begin with.
Employers might be willing to get their employees a subscription if they believe it makes their employees they are paying $$$$$ more X% productive. (Where X% of their salary works out to more than $2400/year)
> It's a program with a lot of data running on a big calculator. It won't ever be "smart."

"Thinking meat! You're asking me to believe in thinking meat!"

https://www.mit.edu/people/dpolicar/writing/prose/text/think...
It reads like you think failing tests can't ever be bad because they're in a test environment?

So it merely knows how to approach the task of deleting its own off-switch but didn't actually pass that command to a real execution environment.

That's already bad because people do sometimes blindly pass commands from the context windows to execution environments.

Should they? No, they should not. Not blindly. But they do.
I don't necessarily disagree (although it is extremely hard to quantify the effects of small but widespread harm). But what I am saying is that the FAANG engineer is NOT responsible. The CEO is.
South Korean President Yoon's fate unclear as impeachment vote looms
Article title: How a domain parking company is squeezing extra juice out of domains
End of Hachette vs. Internet Archive
No, I'm explicitly saying that gpt-4o-2024-11-20 won't get any smarter, no matter how much I use it.
They've only come back in the form of shoulder slings. The "Waist Wear Phobia" is still very real.
Right. But I don't think we're concerned about whether an archaeologist from 50,000 years from now can take them. A 3-10 year window is too short for such radiation to have an effect.
I read sometwhere that the DX7IID had corrected the original DX7's whimpy full velocity numbers delivery but found that not to tbe the case. I felt I had to use an Anatek POCKET CURVE with its dedicated DX7 compensation curve and beyond when using my IID to program the TX802 and 81Z.
Do you ever wonder about the road not taken?
Just in time for the holidays.
I'm also suspect for similar reasons, but this at least seems consistent with lots of other stuff we're finding out about the random things humanity has been imbibing for millennia (coffee, tea, cacao, etc). Anything that's anti-inflammatory seems to help fix a lot of stuff, as long as whatever you do to get that anti-inflammatory effect doesn't have too many downsides.

For instance, I wonder if we'll eventually find an NSAID that isn't hard on the liver, and low doses end up in things like vitamins. (My understanding is that that's the main reason you can't just constantly take small doses of advil - the marginal positive effects of reduced inflammation are outweighed by your kidneys and liver being made to constantly work harder).
There are 45 comments so far and 7 references to "redux". I'm just gonna rep for the Recoil clones here and mention Jotai, which likely already works with React 19 without any necessary changes.

With enough front-end complexity, other state managers get in the way more than should. So, to anyone who might be tempted to hate on React, but really has just grown weary of endless walls of action constants, or plumbing props, or fighting nested providers/contexts, or resorting to pub-sub; give something like Jotai a shot.
How much does one of these servers' cost?

Is the estimate that it is cheaper based on comparable server
with the same or similar core count?
Hello folks, I work on moondream. Posted a demo video on twitter for this release: https://x.com/vikhyatk/status/1864727630093934818

Happy to answer any questions!
They aren't talking about EULAs. It's how they give out their answers.
Yes, the probability of tsunamogenic landslides do increase during earthquakes, but it's still quite unlikely for an event of this magnitude tens of km from the continental slope; this is why a properly-calibrated tiered system would be better.

The reason that the Palu event is so notable is precisely because it's uncommon. It's also a very different system: the causative fault is running along the axis of a shallow bay that is only a few km across, so even if the landslide did occur, rapid movement of the steep, shallow coastlines would surely have generated a smaller tsunami. It's a geographical and tectonic situation in which at least a minor tsunami is expected a priori conditional upon an earthquake, so a warning system would account for that in principle. (In practice there isn't time enough to mobilize because the tsunami hits while the ground is still shaking). The bay at Palu is like a somewhat larger Tomales bay--an earthquake right there is going to make some waves. Very different situation than one far off shore.
Dad of a friend ran a store selling designer underwear for men. He sold boxer shorts for $70 over 25 years ago.

He once told me that he also had a rack of thongs. Now, the thongs didn't have a lot of material, obviously, and were inexpensive to manufacture, so if he'd do his regular markup on them they'd end up selling for $15.

"However, notice the price tag is $25. I add an extra $10, because if a guy's looking to buy a thong, he's going to buy a thong".

I think about what he said when I see the chip prices on these high-end server CPUs.
If you're interested in a layer compatible with Elixir's Ecto, please take a look at the EctoFoundationDB adapter:

https://github.com/foundationdb-beam/ecto_foundationdb

https://hexdocs.pm/ecto_foundationdb
Why are you trying so hard to market your 9 year-old's project on multiple aggregators and leaning on his age to do it?

As a parent, is fame really something you want for him?
I genuinely don't understand why anyone is still on this train. I have not in my lifetime seen a tech work SO GODDAMN HARD to convince everyone of how important it is while having so little to actually offer. You didn't need to convince people that email, web pages, network storage, cloud storage, cloud backups, dozens of service startups and companies, whole categories of software were good ideas: they just were. They provided value, immediately, to people who needed them, however large or small that group might be.

AI meanwhile is being put into everything even though the things it's actually good at seem to be a vanishing minority of tasks, but Christ on a cracker will OpenAI not shut the fuck up about how revolutionary their chatbots are.
Tsunami warning canceled after 7.0 earthquake shakes California, Oregon
I think you're right - some of the hardware the military buys from Boeing is because legally they can't buy from anyone else. IIRC they are forced to buy American made stuff on national security grounds.

I don't have a problem with that, except that Boeing's products kinda suck.
Asleep at the Wheel in the Headlight Brightness Wars
thanks for injecting race into this!
I exclude things like increasing processing power/infrastructure as slow AGI is still AGI even if it’s not useful. Yes AGI needs energy, no building energy infrastructure doesn’t qualify as actually working on AGI. You’re also going to need money but making money it’s isn’t inherent progress.

IMO, the fundamental requirements for AGI need at minimum: A system which operates continuously, improves in operation, and can set goals for itself. If you know the work you’re doing isn’t going to result in that then working towards AGI implies abandoning that approach and trying something new.

Basically researching new algorithms or types of computation could qualify, but iterative improvement on well studied methods doesn’t. So some research into biological neurons/brains qualifies but optimizing A* doesn’t even if it’s useful for what you’re working on. There’s a huge number of spin-offs from AI research that are really useful and worth developing, but also inherently limited.

I’m somewhat torn as to the minimum threshold for progress. Tossing 1 billion dollars worth of computational power at genetic algorithms wouldn’t produce AGI, but there’s theoretical levels of processing power where such an approach could actually work even if we’re nowhere close to building such systems. It’s the kind of moonshot that 99.99…% wouldn’t work, but maybe…

So, it may seem like moving the goalposts but I think the initial work on LLM’s could qualify, but subsequent refinement doesn’t.

Edited with some minor clarification.
> consistent repair support

Now that is a trope when you're talking about Apple. They may use more premium materials that and have a degree of improved construction leveraging those materials - but at the end of the day there are countless numbers of failure prone designs that Apple continued to ship for years even after knowing they existed.

I guess I don't follow the fact that the "Apple Premium" (whether real or otherwise) isn't a factor in a buyer decision. Are you saying Apple is a great lock-in system and that's why people continue to buy from them?
“But it makes mistakes sometimes!”
Cool bro, then don’t use it. Don’t bother spending any time thinking about how to create error correction processes, like any business does to check their employees. Yes, something that isn’t perfect is worth zero dollars. Just ignore this until AI is perfect, once it never makes mistakes then figure out how to use it. I’m sure you can add lots of value to AI usage when it’s perfect.
Thanks for the clarification. It was a long time ago!
Ask anyone in New Orleans and they'll tell you that Mondays are for red beans. This is because it was laundry day, and one of the easiest, heartiest, and least labor intensive things that you could cook for a long time with minimal supervision is a pot of beans that only got better the longer it cooked.