Will you excuse the delay.

>>Is this your very personal opinion or are there political science/ economic sources to back this up?

There is relevant literature discussing the high costs of demobilization *before* a hot war sets in, specifically in terms of the preparation and shifting of an economy toward wartime conditions even before active combat begins. These costs are often referred to as the "pre-war mobilization" phase, where the economy is being reoriented, military readiness is increased, and industries start transitioning to war production in anticipation of conflict. This can be an expensive and disruptive process, even before the actual war begins, and it has been studied from various perspectives, including economics, defense policy, and historical analysis.

### Key Themes and Citations:

1. *The Costs of Pre-War Mobilization:*
- When economies begin to adopt a "wartime attitude" or prepare for war before actual hostilities begin, there are substantial costs involved in shifting production, reorganizing industries, and preparing infrastructure. This "mobilization for war" includes reallocating resources to defense industries, stockpiling critical materials, and preparing logistical networks—all of which can be economically burdensome, especially if war does not materialize immediately.

- **Source:** The book **"The Economic Costs of World War II"** by Hugh Rockoff discusses the process of economic preparation during peacetime and the transition to wartime production. The high costs of mobilizing industries and adjusting civilian production to military needs, even before war breaks out, are explored in this context.

2. *Historical Context of Pre-War Mobilization Costs:*
- In the lead-up to both World Wars, countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany began mobilizing their economies for potential conflict long before any formal declaration of war. For example, during the period leading up to World War II, the U.S. ramped up military production in response to growing global tensions, shifting factories and labor forces to support defense needs. This process was costly, as it involved both industrial reconversion and large government expenditures on armaments and military infrastructure.

- **Source:** In **"The Origins of the Second World War"** by A.J.P. Taylor, the author explains how economic mobilization efforts, such as retooling factories and increasing military production, were undertaken by major powers well before war broke out. The financial and economic disruption caused by these efforts is acknowledged, even though war had not officially begun.

3. *Wartime Planning and Costs of Pre-Conflict Adjustments:*
- Governments often begin to implement wartime economic strategies even before any "hot war" begins, such as stockpiling goods, adjusting trade policies, and increasing military spending. These anticipatory measures can be costly in both direct expenditures and the disruption they cause to normal economic activities.
- *Source:* The book *"War and the World: Military Power and the Fate of Continents, 1450-2000"* by J.F. Meiselman touches on the economic consequences of pre-war mobilization, including the cost of preparing economies for wartime conditions. The author examines the disruptions that occur even before the first shot is fired and how costly it is to prepare an economy for potential conflict.

4. *The Economic Costs of Wartime Attitude:*
- Economic historians note that adopting a "wartime attitude" involves shifting the focus of the economy, including military readiness, defense spending, and increased state control. This is a costly process, especially when the possibility of war is not yet certain.
- *Source:* *"Economics of War and Peace"* by Peter W. Wilson explores the economics of war preparation, including the shifts in policy and production undertaken even when the likelihood of war is uncertain. Wilson notes that early mobilization measures—such as defense spending increases, infrastructure development, and military training programs—carry high costs, even when no actual combat has occurred.

5. *Pre-War Military Industrialization and Economic Mobilization:*
- The shift toward a wartime economy involves not only military mobilization but also a change in how industries operate, including the reallocation of labor and capital toward military production. This can be economically disruptive as industries and workers need to adjust quickly to new demands.
- *Source:* In *"Military Mobilization and Industrial Performance: The United States in World War II"* by Thomas A. L. McHugh, the challenges and costs of shifting from peacetime to wartime production are discussed, particularly focusing on the pre-war mobilization phase. The book notes how the U.S. government and private sectors had to prepare for potential conflict long before direct hostilities began.

6. *The Economic Impact of Pre-War Mobilization in the Cold War Era:*
- During the Cold War, nations spent heavily on military readiness in anticipation of possible conflict, even though direct war did not occur. This "peace-time war economy" required considerable investment in military technology, industrial readiness, and maintaining military forces at high levels of preparedness. These investments were costly, even without hot warfare.

- **Source:** **"The Cold War Economy: Economic Policies and the Political Economy of the Cold War"** by David R. Mares discusses how the United States and other nations invested heavily in military and industrial readiness during the Cold War. Mares highlights the financial burdens and economic shifts that occurred even during periods of tense peace, as countries prepared for a potential hot war.

7. *The Role of National Economic Planning in Pre-War Mobilization:*
- Economic planning for war can begin before the official outbreak of hostilities. Government intervention in industries, as well as the shift of economic resources toward the military, comes with substantial financial and social costs, including inflationary pressures and the misallocation of resources.
- *Source:* The *"Handbook of Defense Economics"* (Volume 2, edited by Keith Hartley and Todd Sandler) provides a detailed examination of the economic effects of pre-war mobilization. It discusses the impact of defense spending, industrial conversion, and resource allocation in the lead-up to war, noting that these efforts are expensive even when they do not result in immediate conflict.