skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
While I'd like that to be an accurate description of why the Tory party lost, my understanding is that the migration topic was basically the only thing the Tories did that continued to resonate with voters, and what actually lost them was a continuing series of incompetent leaders, starting with Cameron (who didn't realise the mic was still hot immediately after resigning). Nobody (of any party) liked May, Johnson got away with pleasing lies until Partygate, Truss was a forgettable joke, and Sunak was basically Jim Hacker.

IMO the only reason the Tories didn't lose sooner was that the Labour party was also stuck with Corbyn.
> The truth is that we all know that she would say anything to win

While Trump wouldn't do any of that, right? He would say things because they're true :D

> It was a rather sleepy standard Republican presidency, whose few deviations from the norm pleased people

Just a small insurrection at the end, no biggie. Oh, and some international agreements were shattered, but who cares about those anyway. I mean, there was also Corona which jolted some people from sleep, but thanks to Trump's recommendation to get some chlorine you could get right back to sleeping :)
4 you mean
Your illogical and hyperbolic rhetoric is part of the problem.
The end of the war on Russia's terms is not positive for any European.
The same reason he does half of the insane shit he does. Because it serves his own interests

He doesn't want to actually improve america, he just wants fox news to pay attention to him 24 hours a day
It does matter how you campaign. Very few people live without access to information beyond the price of milk. If you see that global inflation is a thing and that it is a topic of importance for potential voters you could acknowledge that it exists and work on your messaging/make it look like you're trying to do something to fix it.
“Not worried about Trumpism” is a near-100% accurate indicator of extreme ignorance of authoritarian regimes and of the American political system, unfortunately.
Parties basically switched sides this election. From 2008 to now:
- Pro war party: Repubs -> Dems
- Dick Cheney party: Repubs -> Dems
- Elitist party: Repubs -> Dems
- Working class party: Dems -> Repubs
- Pro free speech party: Dems -> Repubs
- Bigger spending party: Dems -> Repubs
- Skeptical of large corps: Dems -> Repubs

There are some issues where they haven't switched (eg. abortion)
Probably not entirely fair. e.g. After enough sentences it is trivially easy to identify LLM output. So you repeatedly get the opportunity to test a sentence or two, guess the provenance and then realise it is the first sentence in several paragraphs of generated output.
Even outside the polls. Trump rallies really started to empty out in the last weeks.
Keep in mind that "Union Joe" holding a pro-union EV summit in August 2021 arranged by anti-Tesla unions is what radicalized Elon Musk and a lot of the Silicon Valley billionaires to openly come out as right-wing.

The union members ended up voting for Trump.

American unions are a joke and should never be pandered to.
Europe did (mostly) nothing during and after the previous Trump presidency. I don’t see how it could be different.

And it’s not like Europe was currently in a good state politically speaking.
> Another option is that voters are just very stupid and fail to see that which is "obvious", repeatedly, despite billions spent on trying to make them "see".

I think this is the correct options.

I mean, look at the people who worked for him in the last administration:

> So how do we explain this near-universal rejection of Trump by the people who worked with him most closely? I guess one explanation is that they’ve all been infected with the dreaded Woke Mind Virus. But it’s unclear why working for Donald Trump would cause almost everyone to be exposed to the Woke Mind Virus, when working for, say, JD Vance, or Ron DeSantis, or any other prominent right-wing figure does not seem to produce such an infection.

> Of course, not everyone who worked for Trump has abandoned and denounced him. Rudy Giuliani, who is now under indictment in several different states, is still among the faithful. Michael Flynn, who was fired by Obama for insubordination and then removed by Trump for improper personal dealings with the Russian government, is still on board, and is now threatening to unleash the “gates of Hell” on Trump’s political enemies. Peter Navarro, the economist1 who served four months in prison for defying a Congressional subpoena, is still a Trump fan. And so on.

> You may perhaps notice a pattern among the relatively few people who are still on board the Trump Train from his first term. They are all very shady people. I don’t think this is a coincidence; I think it’s something systematic about Donald Trump’s personality and his method of rule.

* https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/trumpism-is-kakistocracy

The GOP party has changed:

> As many people have noted, Trump’s movement is a cult of personality. Since Trump took over the Republican party in 2016, essentially every tenet of modern conservatism has been replaced with belief in a single leader. Trump appointed the judges that killed Roe v. Wade, but he constantly goes back and forth on the topic of abortion rights. Trump didn’t cut entitlement spending, but whether he wants to do that in his second term or not depends on which day you ask him. Trump has flip-flopped on the TikTok bill, on marijuana legalization, on the filibuster, on SALT caps, and so on.

> But these flip-flops do not matter to his support at all. His supporters are sure that whichever decision Trump makes, it will be the right one, and if he changes it the following week, that will be the right decision as well. If tomorrow Trump declared that tariffs are terrible and illegal immigration is great, this would immediately become the essence of Trumpism. Trump’s followers put their trust not in principled ideas, but in a man — or, to be more accurate, in the idea of a man. That is what Trumpism requires of its adherents.

* Idid.
Review of Vienna: How the City of Ideas Created the Modern World
No, it wasn't. This failure happened at the side of the user - their central policy configuration or so. Microsoft pushed the update correctly.
So beautiful! I love these!
That is a horrific and dystopian trade-off.

Pretty sure most women would just prefer to fight than be forced to carry a pregnancy.
That's an interesting website!
https://archive.ph/tvAUO
Not really Microsoft, rather the Windows developer ecosystem, backwards compatibility is the name of the game in PC land, and as such there is very little value to add additional development costs to support ARM alongside x86, for so little additional software sales.

Apple doesn't matter beyond its 10% market share, they don't target servers any more.

Ampere is a step away to be fully owned by Oracle, I bet most HN ARM cheering crowd is blessifuly unaware of it.

Graviton is only relevant for AWS customers.
I think not being able to afford food and basic services may make it more difficult to sock away the $500 required for this edge case.
I'm Asian...

And my dad flipped to Trump for those very reasons.

The Trump team built a very strong minority outreach apparatus, and actually microtargeted based on ethnicity.

The Dems were not granular enough so their messaging didn't land.
This is obviously true and has been for decades. Neil Postman's Amusing Ourselves to Death from 01985 makes the case fairly strongly, but probably even stronger evidence is that the US apparently just elected as president a Twitter troll and reality-show TV host who doesn't know how to capitalize English and signed bills with a Sharpie in his previous presidential term.
its more than half so far... not quite as close a split as I would have expected
66,181,515 votes (47.5%)
71,113,511 votes (51%)

But yeah.. roughly half the country doesnt want him
People literally are stupid. Inflation was a global phenomenon, clearly not “caused by” POTUS, and the US managed it far better than every peer.

The idea that if you don’t like inflation you should vote Trump is pretty much the definition of stupidity.
Any egress heavy workload can quickly cost more on cloud than on prem. Especially if you’ve got consistent egress bandwidth that can be negotiated against.
JD Vance?
Heh, I have similar feelings about gun issues. Democrats are dead right but I wish they’d just drop the entire issue completely. I mean they already barely talk about it, though, so who knows if talking about it even less would be enough to convince e.g. my dad that his homemade “Biden and Harris will take your guns” sign is definitely wrong and makes him look ridiculous (somehow, this never happening no matter how many times he thinks it will hasn’t convinced him)
No. Turns out I found common ground with Liz and Dick Cheney. Wouldn't have had that on my bingo card in 2016.
Maybe you forgot to include the /s, but I had my first laugh while reading this thread.

Seriously, the people who voted for him probably didn’t want to defend it to people asking their opinion.
I see AEDs hanging on the wall at work. My only real thought is if I have a heart attack at work, just let me die. Clearly I'm not going to make it to retirement anyways if the stress nd stress eating from my job is giving me a heart attack.
Yes! Thank you Dang, we all owe you a beer!
Most of the illegal migrants coming into the U.S are not from Mexico. They're from Latin American and Asia. Actual migration from Mexico by Mexican citizens has been on the decline in the past 10 years. Possibly due to Mexico's growing economy.
> But I don't think that would not derail the discussion. Pretty much any comparison with a dictator leads to painful discussion.

Yes, but when the dictator is also someone who orchestrated the holocaust, the discussion becomes all about how Trump doesn't literally hate Jews etc.
That's really a quite very unrefined view of Hitler's rise to power. If you really want to prevent Hitler then you have to prevent the end-stage of the Weimar Republic. So, you'd need a strong economy, rule of law, public order and a culture of decency and trust. What makes people yearn for autocratic rule isn't "blaming the jews" it's the everyday circumstances that arise when liberals are done running a place into the ground. Like California, at the moment.
Everyone in Europe has been talking about it for decades and many parties on the left have nuanced views on it, and they're certainly not ignoring it. In the US, "the wall" Trump was banging on about in 2016 already existed. Deportations under Obama were higher than under Trump, and higher still under the Clinton administration.

Secondly in many countries "the left" hasn't really been in power for a long time; often government are in the centre or centre-right.
There have been several cases that made the news in the last few weeks in the wake of new abortion bans, e.g. https://www.texastribune.org/2024/11/01/nevaeh-crain-death-t...
We simply don’t believe there’s a positive scenario for Ukraine in sight.
As a person who can be described that way: why would I want to migrate to any country whose leaders were elected on a platform of hating migrants?

"Oh but not like you, you're one of the good ones!" - imagine yourself being described that way, and ask if that's a crowd you care to spend your time living with.
To what degree will AI-generated text and watermarking influence how human language evolves... I bet "delve" will become more frequent in the spoken language :)
Supply of cheap labor lowers wages, not sure why you believe otherwise. There are other things that can lower wages, but cheap supply is a factor.
The one that looks like Windows 7 seems to be the most complete and has a bunch of stuff not found in the others, like progress bar or menus. In fact while I never liked the window decorations that 7 used, the rest wouldn't look bad on an electron app
> We, humanity, don't know what "personhood" really is

It's self-awareness, at least in general and as considered by a court when granting it to a chimp.

It's also why I would likely never go vegan, although I do advocate for a drastic overhaul of animal welfare standards.
So... dumb as rock it is then?
Tribalism is human nature, as social success - a key survival criteria - requires alignment.

The reason it becomes a problem is that there the only options for each "tribe" is one of two extremes, and that these are perceived so fundamentally different it is hard for people to find common grounds. When you have many more parties, you have a wider spectrum where you can have partial agreement and disagreement with much softer borders between political strongholds, and tribes can incrementally move within the spectrum without having to switch all their beliefs and ideologies from one day to the next.

Being more understanding of tribes with other ideas rather than making them villains would also help both sides in communication and political mobility.
The news you're referring to is 5 hours old... A lot has changed since then...
If you read on the methodology of some of these 'election models', you'll understand there's a lot of narrative chasing that goes on (or even just "herding towards the least controversial number").

For example, from Nate Silver's blog:

> The Silver Bulletin polling averages are a little fancy. They adjust for whether polls are conducted among registered or likely voters and house effects. They weight more reliable polls more heavily. And they use national polls to make inferences about state polls and vice versa. It requires a few extra CPU cycles — but the reward is a more stable average that doesn’t get psyched out by outliers.

All this weighting and massaging and inferencing results in results that are basically wrong.

Come Election Night he basically threw the whole thing in the trash too!
PS2 backwards compatible with PS1, early models of PS3 was compatible with PS2.

This was achieved by simply cramming the older hardware into the newer. Quite a common strategy, really – I believe Sega did this too with Mega Drive being able to play Master System games (using a physical adapter).

Nintendo did the same for achieving backwards compatibility for Game Boy games on Game Boy Advance. Wii-GC compatibility was however achieved by the consoles using the same (but buffed) chipset. Gonna be interesting to see how they achieve backwards compatibility this time around.
How are Democrats to blame for inflation caused by Trump-era COVID entitlements funded by money printing? Sure some of it continued for months into the Biden administration but the bulk of it happened under Trump.
Housing isn't any cheaper. Basics like groceries aren't either. If someone is struggling to own a clean and safe home, pointing at averages isn't convincing.

Many people don't trust that math.
Ossobuco, the Italien defender of (checking their comment history) Russia, the Cuban government, the Iranian government,... (probably something else but I stopped checking)
You'll get a lot of hate for saying these things, but it's good you said them.

People really need to face reality and that our society simply cannot sustain even limited immigration if those people end up as a negative for the state in terms of financials.
> He seems quite literally incapable of a “comprehensive” solution to anything. Every solution was the simple one that had the predictable unintended consequences.

That is because the result doesn't matter, not in "starve the beast" [1] cycle politics - it used to be mostly about money but the model can be used also for general politics. The playbook is:

1. side A rise to power claiming "issue X must be solved by doing Y" (all while knowing that doing Y is useless or counterproductive, but the voter base doesn't care - be it immigration or the defunding of healthcare or whatever)

2. The consequences hit delayed, when the term is at its end and the competitor B takes over (usually in US political cycles every 8 years, but these days it seems like the ping-pong is accelerating)

3. That leaves an opportunity for side A to constantly barge in from the side "look at issue X, vote for us next time and we'll fix it (for realsies this time!)"

4. Side A wins the next election.

When it comes to anything budget related, replace the campaigning slogan with "look at issue X, it is clear that the government is incapable of doing anything about that issue, let us privatise it".

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starve_the_beast
I see AEDs at work. If I have a heart attack, I have no confidence in my team being able to use it. I've seen how they handle requirements and documentation in stories.
The call to Brad Raffensperger asking him to "find" votes has been public for years. I'm in disbelief that anyone could listen to that conversation and conclude it was anything but an attempt to steal the election.
Yeah right, no sane person in the EU wants to be in any union with those thugs.
If you print money to pay for things generally that causes inflation, it’s one of the few clear facts economists will tell you they 100% know.
Apparently, it does. There is a -g flag (background) to prevent focus.
Ensured an R-partisan Supreme Court for the rest of my life, odds are. And I’m only middle aged.
But that’s precisely the point. If there are new adversaries, new obstacles, it’s essential to work toward becoming stronger, more independent, more prepared and building greater unity among states.

I agree with you, things are looking bad... Today, I'm just trying to be positive. Tomorrow, maybe not ...
Read about Godwin's Law here: https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/GodwinsLaw

In a nutshell, you automatically lose any argument if you have to invoke Hitler or the Nazis.
It works if your existing population is willing to do unskilled labour.
Which in my country is not the case
the biggest problem is the climate. with trump winning, most/all of the climate policies will be revered irreparably damaging our planet bringing us to the brink of extinction. ofc it won't be all trump fault, current trends are gloomy enough yet those are the very last few years to actually do something..
Yes. It was Biden and his team’s decision to prop him up til it was too late.
I agree there are a lot of right wing, libertarian types, but I'm guessing just voting by the HN crowd would be a Harris landslide over Trump. For example, donations for Alphabet employees was supposedly 89% to democrats, 11% to republicans.
Ron DeSantis comes to mind
These edge cases are tragic, yes, and shouldn't happen.

Economic hardship results in orders of magnitude more all-cause mortality, making it the more important problem to solve.
I would not pay anything. Either I find a free app for this, or I already have an invoicing or PM tool that includes the functionality.

I don't want to sound rude, I'm just giving my honest reply.
I don’t see it as name calling, the word Fascist plainly and accurately describes their positions and strategies. If they sincerely believe this is what is best, why would they see it as an insult rather than a compliment?

It is true that Americans are pretty proud of winning WWII, and label that as defeating fascism… but it is plainly obvious that this current political movement aims to implement exactly what we were fighting to prevent back then. I think this is the main reason it is seen as an insult- people that language implies betrayal of what a lot of Americans died fighting for.
"The average person" typically means the median person.
This is a deep insight. It's a reactionary vs. establishment dynamic where the reactionaries get a free boost because they're fundamentally more provocative from a content perspective. I think it's more like "the reactionaries get to hate, the establishment doesn't" and R and D may swap those positions.
I believe it's all web3 smart contracts so they don't have the option to not pay out. They have an 'oracle' call the bets. Vitalik Buterin is an investor so I'm guessing the tech works.

You can actually get your money back at any point by selling in the market - I bailed on my Kamala bet when the results started coming in.

If you leave it to resolve it goes to the oracle which is a kind of voting mechanism https://docs.uma.xyz/protocol-overview/how-does-umas-oracle-...

Aside from gambling being iffy I'm quite impressed they've actually got the tech to work quite smoothly. There was talk of oracles and smart contracts for years and it never really worked much but this seems to be quite fast, cheap and secure.
We would prefer less soldiers dying today than more soldiers and civilians dying in a year, after ruzzia recovers, restocks and attacks again.
> instead of insulting the people they were supposed to convince (as the Remain campaign did)

Can you point to any examples of this? I don't think the official Remain campaign did anything of the sort. Insulting the people you are trying to convert is a poor strategy, which is why I don't believe they did it.

When you say "were called bigots, uneducated, stupid, racist, etc", what I think happened was that the Leave campaign alleged that that was what the Remainers thinking/saying and it gained traction.
Well, this is why I've voted third party for every election I've ever participated in.
Yes, the proud Italian defender of world peace and cooperation. What do you defend?
What do you call being the majority party, winning referendums, etc?

Certainly there is a lot of voter intimidation, control of the press, etc. behind it, but I think that's precisely what is being debated here.
The polls were predicting a near-tie for months. That was the correct prediction.
Intelligence is not inherently quantifiable. IQ is an arbitrary way to quantify it, but there average and median is pretty much equal by definition.
There were a couple of moderately sane people around him during his first term. There will be less of them this time around.
According to Wikipedia, "Far-right politics ... are typically marked by radical conservatism, authoritarianism, ultra-nationalism, and nativism"

Digging into the page for radical conservatism, "Elements of ultraconservatism typically rely on cultural crisis; they frequently support anti-globalism – adopting stances of anti-immigration, nationalism, and sovereignty – use populism and political polarization, with in-group and out-group practices.[3][4][5][6] The primary economic ideology for most ultraconservatives is neoliberalism.[6] The use of conspiracy theories is also common amongst ultraconservatives.".

Trump is well-known for his populist, anti-globalist, anti-immigration, and pro-nationalist rhetoric. He has also promulgated conspiarcy theories such as the Obama birther conspiracy and claims of stolen elections.

As for authoritarian, Trump forms a textbook example of a personality cult. He frequently attacks existing institutions and an independent media, undermining trust in a free democratic process. He frequently issues positive messages about authoritarian dictators in other countries such as Bolsonaro, Orban and Putin.
You were respectably drifting away from your elitism in the first two paragraphs.

Then the last paragraph shows you have a long way to go.

> If you put someone in a voting booth who isn't interested by news, who do they vote for? I mean, Trump has a lot of surface-level qualities - he's a tall, confident white man who's a successful boss of business and an anti-establishment outsider - and maybe that's enough to capture this demographic.

I live in a rural working class region. I have beers with these guys all the time. They're my best friends and I'm the odd coder guy that works from home.

They do not care about the surface level qualities, besides the fact that he's hilarious. They might not read articles but they listen to podcasts a lot on their commutes at 4AM in the morning.

They don't want war with Russia, they're pissed about the COVID stuff, and they aren't happy with the price of gas.

They don't care that he's tall.