skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
NB: If anyone knows a source that has tabular formatted polling and election data, that would make it a lot easier to compute this than hand-entering.

With updated (and 0.1% decimal precision) election returns, Harris's polling delta falls to -2.25% (Orange is unchanged). The overall advantage of her opponent over polling data is 2.89%. Which is a lot.

Still want to get more precise polling numbers in there, but again, it's not shifting a lot. Law of Large Numbers dictates that, as multiple rounded numbers tend to even out the precision distinction.

I've just re-run my analysis with higher precision on the deltas. Harris performed worse in every single race save DC than projected. Orange performed better in a majority of races, by as much as 5+ percent.

(I still need more accurate data for polling, I'll add a comment when I've updated that.)
> Tribalism is human nature

Nah, tribalism of this sort is absolutely not human nature. People naturally form tribes and define ingroup/outgroup boundaries around their actual relationships and communities.

It takes alignment of a lot of unusual circumstances to get people to attach their identities to "tribes" that are actually aggregations of completely unrelated strangers grouped together on the bases of abstract symbols.

People are naturally loyal to their families and local communities, not to continent-spanning political organizations.
> I don't think the policy positions even matter that much,

Right. The misogynists won. There are simply too many people in this country who don't want a woman President.
12.5% in the bitcoin world isn't much for something which often goes up or down by 12.5% in a single day.
Another difference is that you aren't arbitrarily excluded from being able to buy Bitcoin based on where you're born.
Sort of. As far as I remember, his primary motivation wasn't to get treatment (he actually doesn't want to get treated at all at first), it was to leave behind enough money for his family.
Note that it hit a new all-time high last night, but it's been in the ~$70ks since last March. The election results may have pushed it over the top, but it's been way up for a while.

The people who predicted it would collapse appear to have been wrong, and the people who predicted it would come back appear to be right. My own position was that it's so volatile that it will always be a roller coaster, which is why I don't invest in it anymore. I'm sure it'll crash again, and come back again, and I don't like drama when it comes to my money. But to me, this is more evidence against the Ponzi scheme narrative, which was always a lazy description that didn't match the history of the coin. BTC is something else entirely. Still scary to me, but something else.
Polls had it as a tossup similar to what we saw. I believe that when voters repeatedly say they care about the economy and immigration, they probably are saying those because they mean it and not because they’re fixated on trans people but shy.
Get book on high school algebra, plane geometry, trigonometry, solid geometry, and calulus. Study all of them. Then take tests, e.g., SAT, to confirm excellence. After high school, keep living at home, and get a job, even just mowing grass. Take the money and get a bus ticket to one of the midwestern states and apply to a college, not a university, there. Being a good student with good SAT scores, should be able to get a scholarship with $0 tuition. Or work hard, make all As, and then ask for a scholarship, use a work-study program, etc. Go to the available offices and see what programs they have for low or no cost schooling. Then with a high GPA, apply to grad school -- $0, zip, zilch tuition. Get a Masters in something. Let the Masters confirm excellence and f'get about the quality of the high school or even the college.

A niece got PBK at Indiana University, went to Harvard Law, got first job at Cravath, Swaine, & Moore. Left for an MD, and has been practicing since then. Suspect she spent very little on tuition.

As a first grad student in math at Indiana University, I got paid for teaching, had a nice single dorm room, actually lived well, and saved some money.

There are a lot of buttons to push, strings to pull, to get low cost or free college, then free through Ph.D. Being a good student, good SAT scores, already know calculus well, all can help.
You're extremely anti immigrant as well. Tell me how and I'm on the plane tomorrow
She seemed so fake.
> I honestly do not believe your grocery bill has tripled.

So much the worse for you.
BTC is used for trade. You know, drugs etc. And money laundering. Sanctions busting. Tax avoidance. It has a lot of utility...
Hi Ben! I would argue that it is very useful for splats to be edited in this way. I couldn't have built this application without SuperSplat for isolating, cleaning, transforming and optimizing/compressing the PLY:

https://playcanv.as/e/p/cLkf99ZV/

Integrating AI is an interesting topic and something that certainly has potential.
How are they connected?
Very cool, will need to find a use for this. I briefly had a go at building similar trying to replicate the Club Penguin UI - need to get back to it!

https://github.com/bwgraves/PenguinCSS
OK, I'll ask. What's wrong with using a tape measure the way the guy suggested to measure a length of pipe?
Yeah I was wondering if it might be LLM generated, it just seems so pointless though. Additionally while the date could obviously be fake, June 2022 is before ChatGPT came out.
I was hoping it's NIST ECDSA P-256 (algo 13) for smaller DNS packets, instead of what they did with continuing with RSA 2048 (algo 8).
yeah im perplexed with anti-trump people state sweeping facts that are easily disproven in 5 seconds of searching
The advantage of being on Mars is that as your population expands you mostly need to just dig more tunnels for them to live in. With a space station you have to build more space stations or somehow add on to your existing one, which is very difficult with artificial gravity setups. The explosive failure modes of a space station are less of a concern on an underground Mars colony as well.

But this of course raises the question as to why you would do either instead of staying on Earth. Elon Musk talks a lot about a multi-planetary species, but it's extremely unclear how long it would take for a Mars colony to become self sufficient. And anything you can do underground on Mars you can do underground on Earth but with fewer catastrophic failure cases. The only threats a Mars colony protects against are a dinosaur killing asteroid strike and a completely runaway greenhouse effect turning Earth into a second Venus. Even worse, if Elon were serious about the Mars colony he should have multiple fully self-sufficient test colonies on Earth vetting out the technologies now, but if he had that it negates the need for the Mars colonies.
It could easily lead to the end of civilization. We’ve been seeing global production disruptions for years now. (Currently, quartz for semiconductors. During the pandemic, climate events knockout out PVC production, which meant a global disruption of construction work.)

We’re at the beginning of the exponential ramp on this sort of stuff, where the changes are barely noticeable. For example, until last night (so, assuming best case greenhouse projections), there was roughly a 50% chance that some people reading this will live to see the northern half of Europe turn into a glacier.

Anyway, without modern civilization, we probably won’t survive 10,000’s of years of such stuff. The global population bottlenecked at a few thousand the last time this happened.
This sounds like "Silence is violence" garbage that is used to bully anyone who's not an activist. In this case, actively pro war.

No. We don't want to be world police. We want to make money and grow our families.
In addition the surface of Mars has lots of radiation which would require you to live under some sort of shielding or in a cave.

>The average radiation level on Mars is 24–30 rads (240–300 mSv) per year, which is 40–50 times higher than Earth's.

Everything on Mars is designed to kill you. I don’t understand the appeal either except for ultra rich on earth that are looking for a new exclusive neighborhood to move into, away from the serfs funding it.
To be clear, it's obvious I'm saying across a basket of all FX pairs, the US traded at pretty stable levels. There is no sign at all of debasement.

JPY, likewise, has performed terribly against a basket of all FX pairs.

JPY is the outlier.
Make features for people who are willing to use and pay for your product.

Do these users want to pay for your product? Can you make additional features for their use cases that will encourage them to pay for your product? If so then do it.

I would suggest staying at arms length from that market in terms of your marketing, and instead let word of mouth or other forms of viral marketing in that community to be responsible for its growth there.

Or lean even harder into it and create an AI NSFW website that uses this. Basically make it your competitive advantage.

Just make sure it is all legal.

The OnlyFans owner is absurdly rich.
“ That promise played upon the listener thinking the US had somehow … “

this is the summary of trumps entire campaign platform. i’m honestly not even sure he expressed a concrete policy on anything. he said he wants even more aggressive tariffs and will start deportation on day 1 (and was relatively nonchalant about some “legal” immigrants being caught up with “illegal” ones). cut dei.

there’s honestly no plan or policy, just a nebulous wish list that appeals to the base impulses of humanity.

the only real expectation that i have is that justices thomas and alito will retire early in his term to allow him to appoint new ones early enough to not allow democrats to stall like mcconnell did.
I see you're unwilling to engage with the topic, though I try to in good faith. This makes me sad and frustrated. The key thing about British and American political discourse seems to be a disengagement from political education and reality. The reactionaries are actually "moderates," the guy speaking eerily similar to passages of mein Kampf is not hitlerian, center-right are actually communists, etc.
I never understood this argument. Of course Putin is responsible, but what is the point of mentioning it?

Suppose you are on a tour in Rwanda to observe gorillas, and the tour guide tells you not to look them in the eye. One tourist feels humiliated by that instruction, looks a gorilla in the eye and gets beaten up. Who do you blame if you know in advance what the gorilla will do?

It was patently obvious to anyone who experienced the cold war what Russia would do if Ukraine would be a NATO member, preferably equipped with Tomahawk missiles. It was obvious to Merkel, to Obama, to Zelensky.

Of course Russia is to blame, but what is the point if you are supposed to be the adult in the room? You are also to blame.
This is just not accurate.
Have you considered what happens if someone decides to bomb an ASML factory?
"how are you gonna handle the real dangers of the profession where people need to know you have their backs"

Some dickhead flinging racial slurs at me all day doesn't make me feel that they have my back. Quite the opposite, actually.
my point with the JEC wasn't about tariffs its about Republican policies that show that "will it increase their leverage in the job market enough to boost their earnings enough to counteract the higher prices" is fantasy

The highest levels of leadership of the Republican party have shown time and again that they want a permanent poor underclass through their policies (both enacted and proposed) and actions.

There's no sense in speculation here, if they can put the boot on labors neck, they will 100% of the time
https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-emissions-pe...

Per capita energy usage is an interesting choice of metric.
The United States is ranked 16th highest in the world for emissions per capita.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_di...
An in-space power plant isn't the proposal, though. It would be on Mars, and have similar requirements for containment, cooling, maintenance, etc. We are unlikely to want to spew radioactive hydrogen all over the landscape.
Have you considered simply changing the currency on the page? Not sure why you have to make an entire comment about this when there's a dropdown right there
Big systemd on embedded devices is actually A GOOD THING! Imagine what Gentoo, Buildroot/OpenWrt or even Busybox alone could do with so much memory after removing all that bloated OS!
Oh. Makes sense.
There are 2 use cases:

1. Speculation

2. Converting to a real fiat with enforceability, like USD
I’m sure you will agree that for most people, the difference between extinction level and civilization ending is academic.
You can simply negotiate the remaining time with your employer after you quit.

It is not mandatory to sit on your old job for 3 months.
I have always thought that it would be interesting to see an "Ordinary people party" that focuses on the silent majority, held by someone who never wants to be the president but loves to hold a percentage as a bargaining chip.
Unfortunately most non-{architect, principal} engineers have little say over the structure of existing data, and often no ability to change it. They are given APIs (controlled by teams they aren't allowed to talk to) and requirements (that they aren't allowed to question or modify) and have to crank through tickets. This seems like a massive waste but in theory it's because, while things take much longer and end up much worse this way, they are at least predictable and resilient to any one engineer quitting. Even if not, the people writing the checks think this, so that's what gets done.
BTC is pretty bad for illegal activity since the transactions are public.

You'd be much better off using the US Dollar. Even if it's through a bank like HSBC.
I assume this is because of Musk's love of crypto and his expected high position in Trump's new government, compared to the Democrats who wanted to regulate cryptocurrencies like any other security.
Having done this the first time Trump got elected, there is actually another alternative.

Girlfriend and I ended up moving over to Morocco on a temporary visa. That didn't end up working. However, I ended up then moving by myself from country to country for about a year, becoming a nomad and mostly living out of a backpack and sleeping bag. Basically walking and hitchhiking across portions of Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.

Admittedly, this is rather challenging. However, many areas of the Earth are "ok" with 30-180 day stays, and the experience itself can be rather life changing. Got to go and teach children in Palestine because of that choice, which felt like at least contributing slightly to solving the issues in the Middle East. Here's the list as far as how long they'll allow legal stays per country (for Americans, since American perspective).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_requirements_for_United_S...

The other issue though, is if you're looking now, you're already kind of behind. Google says the numbers have doubled since 1999, and I've heard much larger numbers (like 17 million in the last three years). If you believe World Population Review, then there's about 8 million registered expats existing abroad.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/american-...

Here's another table from Wikipedia that "mostly" lines up with similar population percentages. Notably, those who have declared residency.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emigration_from_the_United_Sta...
I think the problem is that when the Democrats are in power, they also attempt to inflate the power of the executive branch. Both parties have been doing this for a while, and are AGHAST when the opposing party gets elected. No one seems to want to take back the power the executive branch, which makes each new bad president more and more of a disaster.
We can't be 100% sure about that. We know that agriculture can't survive a constant rise of temperature. At some point the roots are unable to grasp water from the soil, and then everything dies at the same moment.
Consumers always want to pay less are you dense?
People are increasingly bored in our digital age
The point is to leave it unresolved so they can run on it again.

I'm so sick of that crap.
I’ve never bet on sports but watched my grocery bill skyrocket. A few years ago I posted year-over-year grocery prices and in aggregate the bill was 50% over the course of 12-months. Since then we’ve seen insurance and utilities skyrocket, creature comforts like streaming services are all up. CPI may say one thing, but my checkbook feels much worse. Disposable income has all gone to sustain a reduced quality of life.
> Key extraction is difficult but not impossible.

Refer to the never-ending clown show that is Intels SGX enclave for examples of this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software_Guard_Extensions#List...
> What's the scenario where the government can take the digital money from your bank accounts but can't take the digital money from your crypto wallet?

In cryptocurrency's defense (I am not a Bitcoiner), it not as easy for them to do that, because they can't just order a bank to transfer it/freeze it....assuming the owner is going through a lot of elaborate, inconvenient, and easy to footgun security measures. If you have a Coinbase wallet you're in exactly the same situation as if you had cash in the bank.

HOWEVER, the cost people pay to get that is stupidly high. For every suave international drug dealer who's kept their money out of the hands of the evil government with Bitcoin, you probably have 1,000 dudes or more, who lost the keys to their wallet somehow or got their Bitcoin stolen in a hack.

So you probably shouldn't be worrying to much about duh gubbament.

And then, the obligatory xkcd about crypto: https://xkcd.com/538/ / https://arstechnica.com/security/2024/09/forget-hacking-this....
Errr, by their logic people wouldn't use TVs or memory cards as "cash". Which they don't.
i blame the media for "trump is literally hitler" for the past ten years
Obama was apathetic at best in pursuing the public option once he got elected. He made a deal with the hospital lobby early on to drop it.

https://web.archive.org/web/20211027180129/https://www.nytim...
ah the old debunked story "but crypto is used only for crime"

https://www.forbes.com/sites/haileylennon/2021/01/19/the-fal...
> Pyramid scheme at best, ponzi scheme at worst.

Neither: it's just another commodity, like gold.

And like gold it has psychological value but questionable use cases (gold's is mostly jewelry). But, like Beanie Babys or anything else (diamonds), it is "valuable" because people think it is valuable.

People assign things to value things, like shiny and non-shiny rocks:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rai_stones

and Bitcoin is no different: it's a digital rock.
Thank you for saying so! I'm American, but I lived in the Netherlands for 7 years, and absolutely loved it there.

I think the biggest barrier for young Americans is getting through the paperwork. The EU doesn't make it easy to immigrate (legally). You generally need an offer of employment in hand.
He is going to be in his mid 80s after this term. At some point age is going to catch up to him no matter what else happens.
Thanks - but imagine I got these things in 2012 and have been totally uninterested since then. What's "the trading book?"
or you know, wages stagnated for 40 years and haven't kept pace with productivity gains, and it was inevitable that this would wear most American citizens down and we'd feel it more and more over time.

The most recent wage gains failed to make up for this fact

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/19/heres-how-labor-dynamism-aff...
I'd be interested, if any one had suggestions, on MPC applied to ML/AI systems -- it seems this is an underserved technique/concern in MLEng, and I'd expect to see more on it.
> Yep, Hetzner, OVH or even DO aren't even close to offering what AWS offers.

I think it was mentioned in the article what AWS offers. Lock-in.
US is 12% which is second highest. But you’re right that it’s too small a percentage to have enough effect on its own.
People are willing to live in condos just fine. But everything is unaffordable now. Every new condo building has crazy HOA fees with prices that are totally out of reach.

We're not building out or building up. So yeah. It's bad.
I love this kind of stuff because it seems like a roughly equal blend of art, science, and engineering.
Show HN: Hacker News frontpage as a print newspaper that you can personalize
Border patrol apprehensions is very different from illegal immigration! You can't control how mnay people try to get across.
I 100% agree with:

- cleaning up noisy GuassianSplats is useful. There are often stragglers floating around in space that need to get deleted.

- compression/optimizing them is useful.

This being a cleanup and compression tool makes sense, but I guess I don't call that an "editor."

I guess I was more arguing against the idea that this is a viable "editor" where one can combine and manipulate in more radical ways Gaussian Splats. The current technological approach doesn't make this a feasible use case.
Trump already was president before. What “civil liberties” did those groups lose?
> Reps on the other hand have to appear xenophobic once again for reasons that aren't super clear to me,

It's not complicated. It's the Christian Nationalist agenda for the last 50 years. They don't want white people to be the minority and most immigrants don't fit that profile.

> but when it comes to actually preventing immigration, they always manage to torpedo their own proposals.

Because they have to win elections. They do this by declaring something bad, doing nothing about it, then blaming democrats so they can get re-elected.
Look at Florida. They've been republican for over two decades, they have a super majority and they don't solve any of the problems they run against the democrats on.
I don’t even have a dog in this fight since I'm from the EU. I can see why the Democrats lost. I can also see why Trump won.

And I'm factually correct when I say that Trump’s rhetoric is dangerous. He has motivated even a reasonable person like you to defend him vehemently. He made you part of his group, and by the looks of it you’re already starting to hate those who are not in it.
My core concern is that you feel comfortable talking about "removing" countries.

My secondary concern is your refusal to acknowledge/engage with the data which was presented to you, both in text and in interactive graphs.

And that's more than enough concern for me to refuse further engagement.
>The game theoretic irony is that peace can often only be achieved by building up the military strength to deter potential attackers.

But the utility of military build up is non-linear. There comes a point where further gains for your side are marginal while further losses for your adversary are existential. A neutral Ukraine represented a sufficiently balanced state of power that rendered war negative sum for Russia. We overextended ourselves in trying to peal Ukraine away from Russia's orbit. NATO in Ukraine would have been a strategic noose from which Russia would never escape. The Ukraine war is blowback for American policy towards Russia, i.e. expand NATO up to Russia's border, bait Ukraine and Georgia for NATO membership, foment anti-Russian movements in Ukraine that lead to the expulsion of the Russian-friendly president of Ukraine and install someone western-oriented.
Unless it has information indicating it is safe to provide the answer, it shouldn't. Precautionary Principle - Better safe than sorry. This is the approach taken by all of the top labs and it's not by accident or without good reason.

We do lock up spray cans and scan outgoing messages, I don't see your point. If a gun technology existed that could scan before doing a murder, we should obviously implement that too.

The correct way to treat AI actually is like an employee. It's intended to replace them, after all.