The polling margins were razor-thin.

Pollsters such as Nate Silver were giving gut-takes of Red over Blue, e.g.:

"Nate Silver: Here’s What My Gut Says About the Election, but Don’t Trust Anyone’s Gut, Even Mine" (Oct. 23, 2024)

<https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/election-polls-re...>

I've done a somewhat half-assed take tonight of comparing actual returns to latest pre-election polling by state

Why that is, isn't clear. Political pollsters have been struggling for years with accuracy issues, particularly as landline usage falls (it's <20% in most states now), and unknown-caller blocking is more widely used (both on landlines and mobile devices).

Polling does have periodic calibration events (we call those "elections"), but whatever biases the polls seem to experience in the US, it's apparently systemically exceeding adjustment factors.

Polls / votes and deltas:

QC State EV BP RP BV RV Bd Rd

4: AL 9 36 64 32 65 -4 1
4: AK 3 45 55 0 0
4: AZ 11 49 51 49 50 0 -1
4: AR 6 36 64 34 64 -2 0
4: CA 54 63 37 60 37 -3 0
4: CO 10 56 44 55 43 -1 -1
4: CT 7 59 41 54 44 -5 3
4: DC 3 92 7 90 7 -2 0
4: DE 3 58 42 56 42 -2 0
4: FL 30 47 53 43 56 -4 3
4: GA 16 49 51 48 51 -1 0
4: HI 4 64 36 0 0
4: ID 4 33 67 33 64 0 -3
4: IL 19 57 43 52 47 -5 4
4: IN 11 41 57 39 59 -2 2
4: IA 6 46 54 42 56 -4 2
4: KS 6 42 51 41 57 -1 6
4: KY 8 36 64 34 64 -2 0
4: LA 8 40 60 38 60 -2 0
4: ME 2 54 46 0 0
4: ME-1 1 61 39 0 0
4: ME-2 1 47 53 0 0
4: MD 10 64 36 60 37 -4 1
4: MA 11 64 36 62 35 -2 -1
4: MI 15 50 49 0 0
4: MN 10 53 47 0 0
4: MS 6 40 60 37 62 -3 2
4: MO 10 43 57 42 56 -1 -1
4: MT 4 41 59 33 64 -8 5
4: NE 4 41 59 42 56 1 -3
4: NE-2 1 54 46 0 0
4: NM 5 54 46 51 47 -3 1
4: NV 6 50 50 0 0
4: NH 4 53 47 52 47 -1 0
4: NJ 14 57 43 51 46 -6 3
4: NY 28 59 41 55 44 -4 3
4: NC 16 49 51 48 51 -1 0
4: ND 3 33 67 31 67 -2 0
4: OH 17 46 54 44 55 -2 1
4: OK 7 33 67 32 66 -1 -1
4: OR 8 56 44 55 43 -1 -1
4: PA 19 50 50 0 0
4: RI 4 58 42 55 42 -3 0
4: SC 9 44 56 40 58 -4 2
4: SD 3 36 64 29 69 -7 5
4: TN 11 38 62 34 64 -4 2
4: TX 40 46 54 42 57 -4 3
4: UT 6 39 61 43 54 4 -7
4: VT 3 67 34 64 32 -3 -2
4: VA 13 53 47 51 47 -2 0
4: WA 12 59 41 58 39 -1 -2
4: WV 4 30 70 28 70 -2 0
4: WI 10 50 49 0 0
4: WY 3 73 27 70 28 -3 1

Blue votes: 43
Red votes: 43

Blue delta: -2.49
Red delta: 0.63

Key:

- QC: A parsing QC value (number of raw fields)

- State: 2-char state code, dash-number indicates individual EVs for NE and ME.

- EV: Electoral votes

- BP: Blue polling

- RP: Red polling

- BV: Blue vote return

- RV: Red vote return

- Bd: Blue delta (vote - poll)

- Rd: Red delta (vote - poll)

The last two results are the cumulative average deltas. Blue consistently performed ~2.5 points below polls, red performed ~0.6 points above polls.

Data are rounded to nearest whole percent (I'd like to re-enter data to 0.1% precision and re-run, though overall effect should be similar). Deltas are computed only where voting returns are >0.

Data are hand-entered from 538 and ABC returns pages.

Blue consistently polled slightly higher than performance. Polls don't seem to include third parties (mostly Green, some state returns include RFK or others).

There are all but certainly coding/data entry errors here, though for illustration the point should hold.