skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Market dynamics are subtly different than statistics of traditional polls, since you need to account for fees and slippage and irrationality. You’d also need to compare this to a poll asking “who do you think will win the election?” which is a different question from “who are you voting for?”
Yes indeed. My university had a clean room and research-scale fab equipment right next door to some of the lecture halls.

https://nanofab.usc.edu/

The key here is research scale. Larger process nodes, minimal automation, and smaller yields. Which is just fine, because the idea is to prototype new ideas rather than produce millions of chips.
Sports gambling itself was illegal in most of America until the Supreme Court decided Murphy v. NCAA in 2018.

The entirety of the legalized sports betting industry has emerged from essentially nothing and embedded itself thoroughly in the national sports psyche in the span of six years.
You can have a 100Gb uplink on a dedicated fibre for less than 1000$/month now. Which is insanely less than cloud bandwidth. Of course there are tons of other costs, but that alone can suffice to justify moving out of the cloud for bandwidth intensive app.
It's a short simple post that comes down to this:

> Weekly explains that “just running legacy applications in the cloud is prohibitively expensive,” highlighting how lift-and-shift approaches often fail to deliver expected benefits.

Yes, if you have a mature business without active development at a scale where compute/storage costs is a substantial accounting line item, then it makes sense to run on hardware that doesn't have the flexibility and cost of the cloud.

There is an in-between that makes much more sense for most though. Running on provisioned bare metal. Lots of providers offer this as a better performance/price option where you don't have to deal with provisioning hardware but do everything else from the OS+maintenance and up.

At one company we used large bare-metal machine instances provisioned for stable parts of the application architecture (e.g. database and webapp instances) and the cloud for new development where it made sense to leverage capabilities, e.g. DynamoDB with cross-region replication.
Try being honest with yourself mate, instead of pretending like you're being rational while plugging your ears saying "lalala" to confirm your biases. It's not cute.
The Affordable Care Act came with a lot of baggage (as similar plans had been advocated for decades by various proponents), and President Obama was arrogant and dismissive of any need for Republican buy-in (telling them they could take a back seat). CHIPS seems much less divisive, though it seems stalled (at least based on recent statements by Intel and other CEOs).
I actually think we should ban polling, too. Make the election about getting the message out and convincing people, not about a horse race between two numbers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi is a nyc company i believe
Even if I know that is bullshit if someone claims to know the next number of a roulette and backs it up going all-in on black, it is not rational for me to bet on red.
"We"? Do you have a mouse in your pocket?
If the sole purpose of your model is to copy a work, then that's copyright infringement.
For Azure, all of it. Microsoft clumps Azure together with their server software (e.g. Windows Server, SQL Server) licensing when reporting the revenue, but give more fine-grained information on growth rates. This is the latter. (We also know the Azure business was already massive at $34 billion in 2022, since it got revealed during one of Microsoft's ongoing antitrust cases.)

For Google, I'm not aware of a reliable way of estimating the GCP vs. Workspace numbers. But they get asked it during earnings calls, and the answer has always been that the GCP growth is substantially faster than the Workspace growth.
Do you like pen or pencil? Do you like college rule or wide rule paper? Do you like spiral or perf notebooks?

I don't need to justify my reasoning to you in a way that convinces you your way is wrong and mine is right. People like different things. I learned to use a scientific calculator as an extracurricular competition that allowed me to become very proficient at 10-key. Because of that, doing calculations on a computer goes against muscle memory. Laptops don't even have a 10-key. If I have a bunch of notes/papers with numbers that need to be added, I can pull out a calculator and just do the data entry and get a result. I don't have to go to my computer, or lug the laptop around in the shop. I just need numbers quickly crunched so I can then turn around and make a cut, drill a hole, or whatever. I don't need a large clunky compute device for that. Dropping a calculator on the shop floor is much less expensive than doing the same with a laptop. Lots of time, I just don't feel like needing to write a damn script just to get the tangent/cosine of a value to determine the lengths of the whatever.

Again, just because you have a hammer doesn't mean that you should use it drive that screw. Sometimes that tool that specifically made for purpose is better for the task at hand.

Now, pick any of the aforementioned options as to why I might prefer a calculator over a programming env just to crunch some numbers.
If you have a coin and know for a fact that it is either a fair coin or a 60 40 coin, it would take ~100 flips to be 80% sure which kind of coin it is. We will never know whether polymarket’s odds were more accurate than e. g. Nate Silver’s on predicting a single event
Old PC sound cards commonly had op-amps on their outputs that could produce a reasonably-clean Watt or two into a pair of 8-Ohm speakers.

Which doesn't sound like much, but 100 Watts is only 20dB louder than that if all else is the same, and most casual music listening happens with peaks that are in the realm of tiny fractions of a Watt.
We had happy developers before? Amazing.
The thing about gambling is that even if you understand the nature of gambling it doesn't mean you can reliably win money from gambling.
> Wasn't it Trump who popularized the pullback of Chip manufacturing to the US for security ad prosperity reasons.

And how's that Foxconn factory going?

* https://www.reuters.com/business/foxconn-sharply-scales-back...
So... what happens in 2126?

I suppose we will have python4 by then.
Yeah, after looking into this more I think this was a big oversight on my part. Working on a (hopefully) better way of doing this right now - I'm thinking per-shard waker queues and only falling back to spinlocking like this if the queues are full.
As an outsider looking in, it certainly is unique. Uniquely broken.
I don't think they're saying that such a range function is itself a ternary, but using that as a lead-in to discussing the Frink ("1 to 100 step 15") and Elixir ("1..10//2") syntaxes.
Corporations are meant to be well oiled machines that extract money from the sands of humanity. The harkonnen's harvester from Dune would be a good analogy. This machine is meant to be soulless, blindly doing the will of its owner. Today, corporations have to be made of employees, who have their own will, and their will is often not aligned with the will of the owner. It's as if the harkonnens would have to hire freemen to do work that would harm their own people. From the owner's perspective, those employees are defective mechanisms that must be fixed, and the owner creates a control framework that fixes them. That's what metrics do: they reduce employees to small parts of the machine, with well defined functions, inputs, outputs and measurable qualities. This is what makes modern corporations smell so off. One day in their careers, managers realise that they have to make a choice: side with the employees or fuse themselves with the machine.
DOE gave them a $465 million loan to build out their Fremont factory during the height of the GFC:
https://www.energy.gov/lpo/tesla#:~:text=In%20January%202010...
Performance per Watt was lost by Intel with the introduction of the original Epyc in 2017. AMD overtook in outright performance with Zen 2 in 2019 and hasn't looked back.
If that meaning is "intuitive", why was it not used before the Open Source Initiative introduced their definition? The competing uses are the ones co-opting an existing phrase.
I have realworld bank statements that I have been unable to find any PDF/AI extractor that can do a good job on.

(To summarize, the core challenge appears to be recognizing nested columnar layout formats combined with odd line wrapping within those columns.)

Is there anyone I can submit an example few pages to for consideration in some benchmark?
"Storage is cheap, but moving it ain't" is a quote a former co-worker frequently liked to remind people. The quote applied at the low level (eg between CPUs and their caches) all the way up to networking.

Anyways, cloud provider egress costs can be ridiculous. Amazon charges for egress transfer out of AWS, then quite a bit for NAT gateway transfer, and AWS network firewall on top of that (we dropped the firewall and moved our bulk traffic to a specific outer subnet because of that). Oh, and you can't give many serverless products (eg lambda) elastic IPs, so out the NAT gateway it goes...

So. Frustrating.
Oh, in this case, the model can either reproduce the work exactly, or it can play tic-tac-toe depending on how you prompt it.
> That doesn't seem compatible with any kind of major cloud repatriation trend.

Agreed. I don't think this is a real trend, at least not right now.

Also, fwiw, I'm really not a fan of these types of articles that identify like a small handful of people or organizations doing something different and calling it a "trend".
"Subtly different"? It's not even remotely the same thing, all they have in common is that the unit is %. The betting probability is the (expected) chance that a certain candidate wins, while polls measure the % of population that votes for a candidate. A polling lead of 20% would seal the election.
Sometimes people use them to sink obvious (to them) nonsense without spending too much time on it. Arguing with downvotes does no good here, also people posted more than enough answers if you ever wanted to reflect on them. I'd summarize it as "relax, we don't think so and don't need this scary adversarial memetic attack idea". You think it's true, others think it's not. Dealing with it is a great part of a forum life.

You mentioned that you studied this topic. Afair, it's a common phenomenon for students to start seeing what they study irl. E.g. medical students diagnose themselves with all sorts of exotic diseases in around their third year. Maybe you just need to step back from it a little?
Not to naysay, any idea of that includes their own website? Just curious. I don’t az itself is the largest aws customer anymore.
Remember me when you make it big
> Because poor people can't spend money (since they don't have it), hence they pay much less (or even no tax)

Poor people can buy a car. Middle class families can buy 2 cars. Neither can buy 100 exotic cars. Is the purchase of each additional car going to increase the tax paid? Are exotic cars taxed more? You keep stating to use a power law formula but you're critically omitting what the inputs are to determine your tax rate. And now you've also admitted that assets determine your sales tax whereas you seemed to be arguing earlier that that wasn't the case when asked if the sales tax rate is dependent on your ability to hide assets.

> Otherwise, rich people who are hoarding assets will get taxed via land value taxes utilizing the same framework

Rich people hoard assets in all sorts of ways including collecting physical items which you can store where land is cheap if you wanted. That's why the income tax is effective - it's taxation at the moment the money changes hands / you've realized a gain.
It's 100% American and has been a thing forever. It's also a free speech argument, I should be able to bet on outcomes of events. It was common all throughout US history

https://users.wfu.edu/strumpks/papers/Int_Election_Betting_F...
What I was surprised to find in some big orgs is the processes have not evolved to be cloud first. There is lack of maturity, still a chain of committees, approvals, and manual processes; risk management still treats the services as a giant intranet, deployments are not scripted, ad hoc designs. Resources are placed in vnets so that they resemble a system they already know, and comes with all the associated risks.
After tossing peeled, sliced, sections of potato in some fat / oil before putting them in the oven, I wouldn't add further oil to them - does this mean they're not basted, or they are (by the original covering)?

Is beef wellington baked or roasted, by your definition?
They will want cloud-like APIs on-premises and most will implement OpenStack. The second wave of migrations to the cloud will be even quicker for these companies making their way back to on premises.
> […] and President Obama was arrogant and dismissive of any need for Republican buy-in (telling them they could take a back seat).

That is not accurate:

> Not only were Republican senators deeply involved in the process up until its conclusion, but it's a cinch that the ACA might have become law months earlier if the Democrats, hoping for a bipartisan bill, hadn't spent enormous time and effort wooing GOP senators — only to find themselves gulled by false promises of cooperation. And unlike Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's semi-secret proceedings that involved only a handful of trusted colleagues, Obamacare, until the very end of the process, was open to public scrutiny.

* https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2017/08/01/set-health...
Sure you can, especially if you’re rich! You just can’t reliably know when you can reliably win money ;)

Epistemology strikes yet again
So sayeth the wise Alonzo.
Statistically speaking, I'd expect some hardcore sample bias, if using Polymarket to model the US population.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence. Would you even have known the details for each of the 25k people? I could make a similar argument that when I worked for Apple back in the day I didn't know about anyone doing anything illegal. But Apple is a massive company and I'm sure there was probably all sorts of things going on.
Exactly. All of those are choices you have the agency to make. There is no “can’t” unless you are literally a slave (and even then)
Wikipedia's article on Mark dates it as sometime before 70CE, not as an earliest date, but as a minimum - thanks to Leander and Ehrman. I am not sure how you can make the claim that 70CE is earliest or what most historians would say.

Mark alludes to the war that began in 64CE, that eventually led to the destruction of the temple in 70CE, but does not mention that destruction. Thus, for the majority of scholars, Mark must have been written before that moment.

Further, Burkett and Duling date Matthew to within a decade of Mark being written, because of similar events that should have influenced the writing if it was later, but did not. On the other hand, some suggest an even earlier date to 40-50CE (Wright, Wenham).

You won't be able to force the synoptics to a "much later date", as they were dated and discussed (poorly) by Papias of Hierapolis in 95-110CE. Therefore the works happened before this. As he was also "a hearer of John", you also can't date the Gospel of John after Papias was already dead.

The majority view is that the synoptics were written within living memory of the original witnesses, as I've already stated.
It doesn't say millions were stolen. The indictment says North Koreans were paid millions for their work.

I wonder what the quality of work was like
Nearly 1200 comments last month:

Legalizing sports gambling was a mistake

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41659458
Cofounder
We can change "sole purpose" to "primary purpose", and I'd argue something that happens 50% of the time counts as a primary purpose.
What kind of "right" are we talking about here? Constitutional? Natural?
The HPV vaccine has been a universal win for this generation. Screening (pap smear) is also highly effective, but requires constant effort.

The remaining gaps in screening and vaccine uptake reflect broader lack of health-care capabilities that won't be solved with pushing the HPV vaccine alone. Changing from injectable to oral could help, but isn't on the table, and local populations and governments are likely to become increasingly resistant to outsiders waving their science authorities, particularly on family matters.

Both authors are Phd's working in outreach - i.e., they seem to have no experience with deploying HPV campaigns.
Most of the illegal immigrant hoopla has been performative bullshit to make to easier to control employees. If you’re in the chicken processing business or need casual labor, it’s a hell of alot cheaper to avoid paying for social security, worker’s compensation, etc by hiring people whom you can easily exploit by dangling the sword of ICE over their heads.

The US governance model segments immigration and work regulation - the former is a federal matter, the latter is almost exclusively regulated by the states (including enforced of federal rules).

In recent years as conservatives have veered into a more overtly racist and reactionary movement that’s shifted a bit.
The article touches on sigma notation and such. So, I would expect that is largely how they would treat it.

The pitfall you will run into quickly, is that we have very loose definitions between operations and functions. Is akin to wanting a sharp distinction between expressions and terms or statements. There are widely accepted distinctions that typically work, but this is largely convention based with no real intrinsic quality that defines them.
What your web framework never told you about SQL injection protection
Or really day trading in its entirety, IMHO. Imagine I had a casino game that all the best experts insist you have slim-to-no chance of beating the odds on, and that countless hordes of people just like you have lost their life savings on. Is it not gambling just because you have a system for picking a spot on the roulette wheel?
Does it work like that? Wont the house set the odds such that it always win? I.e. the betters set the odds but the initial seed. The house know their book, we don't.

EDIT:
Oh. Visiting the site, it seems like it is not gambling? Or have I misunderstood it.
It seems strange to me to call these "prediction markets" when we call them "betting exchanges" in the UK. It positions the goal of the market to make a prediction or a forecast, rather than simply being a bet. It's interesting framing.
A homeless person wouldn’t qualify as they don’t have a fixed address which is mandatory.

Ultimately, if you really have bad intentions, you find a way. It’s a question of risk and responsibility if you want to put yourself in such a position or not.
Could be a good idea, but I suspect asking people what they think about political candidates enjoys such core first amendment protection that banning it would require amending the Constitution. And practically, nobody in power will want to ban them because they're a tool for staying in power. Same reason that we'll probably always have a two party system.
We've increased pricing for Claude Haiku to reflect its increase in intelligence
I can't tell you how often I've run into cloud deployments that were lift-and-shifts, pushed on by bean counters wanting OPEX instead of CAPEX. They then run into actual cashflow expenses, less stability, more complex security (now you get IAM on top of basic networking!), and the ability for one underpaid person to easily do a lot of damage - because you're certainly not going to hire top-tier cloud talent - these are bean counters running things after all.

It makes it really clear why you so many data leaks via badly configured s3 buckets of dynamo tables...
Trump didn’t seem to disagree with the premise just the funding. His argument is that the US shouldn’t be funding it. His strategy is to put tariffs on chip imports and foreign chip manufacturers would have to build US based plants on their own dime.
Statehood? Why not independence?
Care to post any proof?
Did you perhaps respond to the wrong comment? This is in no way responsive to what I wrote.
But if their having placed a bet makes your opposing bet cheaper, then it can! : )
You're right in that it doesn't benefit them financially. Living in some of the few spots in the continental united states that allow for a more passively-active lifestyle (temerate enough to spend more time outdoors without making it an activity, reasonable transit/bike infrastructure, the ability to walk instead of driving everywhere) carries some pretty hefty health benefits, especially as it compounds over a lifetime.
I actually wrote a (not so polished) clone of that in Ruby, way back when...
The title of Tencent's paper [0] as well as their homepage for the model [1] each use the term "Open-Source" in the title, so I think they are making the claim.

[0] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2411.02265
[1] https://llm.hunyuan.tencent.com/
The biggest bettor is French, apparently:

https://www.reuters.com/world/polymarket-says-mystery-trump-...
I don't think the article concludes that companies are ditching the cloud.. :)
Snapdragon X Plus/Elite is still faster and has better battery life. Lunar Lake does have a better GPU and of course better compatibility.
How about SQL joins? "foo JOIN bar ON foo.id = bar.fooid"
So, that's true. But the point of the linked article is that Polymarket is clearly marketing to US consumers, a market it isn't licensed to serve and that it claims it tries to prevent (via an IP block, anyway).

It's not illegal to be running a gambling and manipulation site per se. PredictIt and Kalshi do it above board. Polymarket appears to be engaging in at least a little bit of fraud here.
I'm torn. I don't write Rust much at all, but I have been playing around with it a little here and there for the last couple years. When I first tried it out, I was shocked that almost nothing I was looking for could be found in the stdlib. I thought I was looking in the wrong place. Coming mostly from the Go world, it was jarring to me when it turned out that out no, it really just barely has a stdlib.

Now after on some pondering though, there is a strength in that the Rust team doesn't have to focus on maintaining such a large stdlib, as you said. I find myself using external libraries for many things in Go already, so why not just extend that to slightly more fundamental things with lots of variance too.

I think the largest downside with this approach, however, is that it's hard for me to know what the de facto, collectively-agreed-upon standard is for a given task.
On the one hand you can enable the addiction that likely caused this person to be homeless. On the other you could donate to a homeless non-profit that could actually help them. I wonder which would be more beneficial?
It's not a random chance gambling like a casino. It's more like active stock trading. Many traders (especially retail) lose money, but many make money.

Polymarket is good when you understand the situation better than the people you're betting against. And the bet you're making can be on what you know.

My first 100 USDC I've made was when the CrowdStrike news hit. I saw a bet that it was a "hack". As a programmer I knew it wasn't a hack based on the technical information I read. The bet was 70 not a hack/30 hack. I bet that is was not a hack and got 30% return for 2 days.

Many people "bet" everyday. Every resource allocation decision is a bet. Polymarket is the same. Don't bet on "what will Trump say" or "the price of BTC in a week", but there a plenty of bets where you can make a reasonable prediction and get consistent returns.
yeah, i think they forget that they could also be a fairly direct hedge-market.

Invest as if A will happen. If the odds seem right, bet ~A will happen too.