skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Show HN: Ask LLMs to predict anything based on news
Hi HN! We partnered with the Atlas team to build a tool called AI Predict [0] that allows anyone to ask any question about the future and get a thoroughly researched, AI-generated prediction on how likely it is to be true.

How it works:
Atlas replicated a Berkeley paper [1] that showed LLMs could make predictions as accurate as the crowd. We’re using a mix of models from OpenAI and Anthropic, with information retrieval powered by NewsCatcher [2].

The system is live and fully functional, though it might struggle with hyper-local questions outside of the public domain (e.g., “Will I have chicken for dinner tonight?“). But we’re intentionally NOT stopping it from answering any question, so fire away!

What makes it different:

- Free to use: Anyone can ask any question about the future that they care about, whether it’s a broad societal trend or a specific personal decision.

- Transparent: The tool is based on a proven reasoning model and provides links to all sources. You can see its track record on public predictions [3].

- Open-source: We’ve released a simplified open-source version [4] to give people a better sense of how it works.

Why we built this:
We’re forecasting nerds and loved the idea behind the Berkeley paper. Friends and family kept asking us to make predictions for them, so we figured we’d build a frontend around the system so they could use it themselves. Don’t use it to decide where to buy a house or anything serious. But we think it’s a good starting place when doing research. AI Predict tackles prediction questions using transparent, objective reasoning (mostly Bayesian analysis) and links to all its news sources.

We’d love for the HN community to try it out and share feedback (predictions@joinatlas.ai). Let us know what you think!

[0] https://aipredict.fun/

[1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.18563

[2] https://www.newscatcherapi.com/

[3] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oPvWlst7sxq2URifFaZ0...

[4] https://github.com/getdatachimp/llm-superforecaster
It will almost certainly be a class up, if only because it uses integrated tips that combine heating element, temperature sensor, and tip itself into a single element, rather than having thermally bulky and inefficient interfaces like the FX888d's replaceable separate tips. So you get faster heating and more accurate temperature control.

But there's the rub: there are a TON of USB-C irons that use integrated tips, and most are cheaper than this new iFixit iron, so you can get that class improvement for the same price as your Hakko station, so I'm curious if their improvements are a big enough step up from _those_ irons to justify the price.
The speculation here is not about what b64 text is. It's about how the LLM has learnt to process it.

Edit: Basically, For all anyone knows, it treats b64 as another language entirely and decoding it is akin in the network to translating French rather than the very simple swapping you've just described.
I got this $6 soldering stand, I use it with my pinecil v1 (and the pine64 silicone usb cable), it works pretty well for me: https://www.microcenter.com/product/659412/eclipse-enterpris...
Workloads tend to average out if you pack dozens or hundreds into one host. Some need more CPU and some need more memory, but some average ratio emerges ... I like 4GB/core.
> Not sure about west. :)

Unincorporated addresses in Kane and DuPage Counties do use a reference system based off State & Madison as baseline (although it's been codified based off county and township lines). Eg. 40W100 Keslinger Rd is a bit over 40 miles west of State St.
Quantum Fourier Transform?
But then a would-be attacker could simply read what you type in the reflections!
I agree with you, and think a perfectly reasonable middle ground would be the same way they allowed the SecurityManager in the first place: if you have such rampantly strict integrity requirements, launch the JVM with -Djava.security.manager (or I guess in this case -Djava.security.integrity) and your JVM will run in lockdown mode

I do see the "by default" in the title, but while I would be turbo sad I would also gladly accept -Djava.security.integrity=false to allow me to opt out of this DRM-esque stuff

And I say DRM but I could also imagine a world in which this stunt would be the death knell to Spring :-(
Even if they can't, individuals are prone to inspiration from an LLMs attempt. Worth giving it a shot at least.
Interesting that “if the request is bad or there’s an error” is a difficult condition to implement universally.
100%! It led me to engineering, and tens of thousands of others like me.

It was so easy and accessible, and there is no modern comparison.
That’s s problem in classic microeconomics: The right price is anything between the marginal cost of manufacturing and the total price of the rocket minus $1.

Every parts manufacturer tries to extract as much as possible from the leeway in the middle.
My points of comparison are simpler - compare a 2019-2023 Subaru Crosstrek (regular non-hybrid model, curb weight of 3117-3298 lbs ) to a 2019-2023 Subaru Crosstrek Hybrid (PHEV, ~17 miles of EV range, curb weight of 3717 lbs). So roughly a 400-500lb weight increase.

Another comparison might be a Jeep Wrangler base 4dr (4449 lbs curb weight and up) compared to the 4xe PHEV version (21 miles of ev range, 5,072 lbs curb weight and up). Roughly a 500lb weight increase.

You could try this comparison on 2wd vehicles as well if desired (e.g. toyota prius vs. prius prime).

While neither scenarios are an EREV, the comparison is a bit similar in thinking about the tradeoffs in hybrid conversions of existing ICE vehicles, where presumably the engine would be retained and drivetrain/battery components to facilitate electric propulsion are added.

Designing an EREV from ground up can be much less weight but depends on vehicle type size, such as a BMW I3 (a small urban 2WD car with CFRP body panels, narrower staggered wheels and other weight savings by design) has a curb weight closer to 3276 lbs. There's tradeoffs with that low weight - the small range extender engine has less power, the gas tank only adds about 80 miles of range, etc.
Hasbro's CEO Thinks D&D's Adoption of AI Is Inevitable
I like that this is a thing, I'm trying to decide how excited I should be about it...

How equivalent are BEAM processes and goroutines?
That's great. I've been waiting. Feels like forever.

;-)
I kinda doubt the glass screen deforms 0.7mm (in the plane of the glass - it might bend 0.7 mm out of plane)
New fossil fish species scales up evidence of Earth's evolutionary march
Would you not just always use fetch when you can?
Google announces a market-shifting deal to capture CO2
I disagree strongly. I don't want big tech telling me what I can and can't do with the device I paid for and supposedly own "for my protection". The prohibition on users giving apps access to eye tracking data and MR camera data is paternalistic and, frankly, insulting. This attitude is holding the industry back.

This exploit is not some kind of unprecedented new thing only possible with super-sensitive eye tracking data. It is completely analogous to watching/hearing someone type their password on their keyboard, either in person when standing next to them or remotely via their webcam/mic. It is also trivial to fix. Simply obfuscate the gaze data when interacting with sensitive inputs. This is actually much better than you can do when meeting in person. You can't automatically obfuscate your finger movements when someone is standing next to you while you enter your password.
Why does this need a blockchain, as opposed to snippets of scripting sitting on the server that the game itself runs on?

It reminds me of a 3D version of Screeps, an indie browser survival MMO where you write Javascript for each unit to control their movements, mining, attacks, etc. That doesn't need blockchain.

I can see how smart contracts would be useful in a decentralized trust model, but if the EVE company is running the game centrally anyway, what benefit does it give?
IRS Guidance for Thieves, Drug Dealers, and Corrupt Officials (2014)
> The accelerometer detects when you pick it up and heats it back up.

I don't want this. I would rather push a button and wait for a light to turn on. Automatic off, fine, I guess, though I don't love it and would never want to rely on it. Automatic on, no way.
Princeton Researchers Have Discovered a New Method to Reshape the Fabric of Life
Well doing that would require Jared Diamond to be a serious scholar and not a pop historian who cares mostly about selling books.
Yeah, I dunno, I've seen a lot of burros and this was pretty far off the beaten path. It was a major surprise for us that this burro hated dogs. OTOH I've seen a lot of horses and dogs working together (hunting, say?) and never seen anything negative happen. Why would burros be any different? So maybe it had been harassed. Given it's aggressiveness (literally a few feet from us) it would be a really bad idea for a dog to screw with it.
Discussion from 2021:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26674279
QEMU can use a number of different hypervisors, KVM and Xen being the two most common ones. Additionally it can also emulate any architecture if one would want/need that.
Looking into how this is built. I see they use something called Squirrel.Window for managing installs. I can't believe I've never heard of this until now! https://github.com/Squirrel/Squirrel.Windows.

Fastest loading electron app I've ever seen.

As a long time user of Ballsamiq. This is FANTASTIC!!
Everything is super smooth, nice drawing styling, well thought out.

My only problem with Ballsamiq Desktop was the price. I just don't use it enough to pay $150 for 1 license. Something like $60 for desktop would be better.

Good luck with the business. I will definitely be using your app.

P.S.
I just noticed it groups things automatically....HOLY SMOKES!

P.S. 2
As a map user. When switching to the pan tool (hand). The scrolling up/down should zoom in/out.

P.S. 3
It definitely needs a pdf export option
>I really wish there was a third competitor in the phone space.

Why stop at 3? Let's have 100 so that app developers can spend all their time porting to other platforms.
While I appreciate the availability of empty(), I appreciate this article as it clearly states why we should use stricter comparisons. Avoid mistakes, and conserve resources.
Haskell is an experiment on having laziness at language level. This experiment clearly shows, that laziness on language level is a bad idea.You can get all the benefits of laziness at standard library level, as illustrated by Clojure and Twitter Storm using it in production.

All the other FP stuff (union types, etc) existed before Haskell in non-lazy FP languages.
Interesting! Does it work based on speech or transcriptions?
I think I actually meant to reply to dreadlordbone's comment, where they implied image hotlinking - "it loads slower" because archive.org is not a CDN.
How is this DRM-like? It seems to me that this is putting control in the hands of the application developer instead of the library developer, not moving it to Oracle or anyone else...
I'm not sure that's a fair assessment of Blue Origin. You seem to be ignoring New Glenn, their heavy lift vehicle with a reusable first stage, which will be the first non-SpaceX offering of a reusable vehicle. It may launch this year!

Bezos' only mistake, as far as I can tell, is trusting his old space experts as to the necessity of moving slowly and minimizing risk. Still, they have made fantastic progress.

Blue Origin is basically the Scotty Pippen of launch companies. It's hard to judge them objectively due to their proximity to the GOAT. If it weren't for SpaceX, they'd be the hottest company in lift tech.
> I do not want random code outside of my package to be able to reflect on my class and pull data out of a private variable or set its data breaking any type of encapsulation or rules I have written.

You have a very strange threat model given how stunningly trivial it is to decompile .class files

I'm with you on the JNI but I am not willing to "baby with the bathwater" the Reflection API just avoid having to check the bytecode for Runtime.loadLibrary
and they figured out how to prevent this happening by the next launch just a few months later. So it turned out to be fairly trivial after all. SpaceX is able to iterate in months what it takes Nasa and its contractors years to do.
You don't need a "large heavy box," just a standard USB-C PD power brick.

e.g. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0C1FZWT8M/
Homelander wrote this article.
There's a big gap between those two statements but I made neither of them.
Most semiconductor EDA software cost > $10k per seat, sometimes > $100k per seat.
As an ex-military man, one would think DRS or HFRO (using standard aggressive HN style acronymiziation, or AHNAN) would be his seminal role.

But, no, his best role (BR) is as GENERAL JAMES SOLOMON in the best video series ever, command and conquer!
As long as they have decent brakes... Because stairs and obstacles exist, and getting over them beats overall efficiency almost every time.
The reason for doing the runtime fee in the first place is that they're bleeding cash despite being the engine behind many highly lucrative games.

From a long term perspective this is very good for the future of Unity, their stock price is even up on the news, but they're going to have to do something about their cash flow situation. The 25% increase for Unity Enterprise is significant, but it doesn't sound like enough.
Shouldn't it be "turning energy into bread"?
I agree. We put an incredible amount of effort into making this a functional workhorse that will last a lifetime.

Tips we'll have at launch: Cone, Bevel 1.5, Wedge 1.5, Point, Bevel 2.6, Knife 2.5, Knife 1.4

What kills tips is oxidation. With our auto-sleep sensor, it drops below the temperature that will wear it out. When you pick it up, it's back at soldering temperature in a few seconds.

Give it a chance! You're right, it's not tried and tested, yet. But Tom at Hackaday is not an easy person to convince: he's been around the block and used every iron out there: "iFixit didn’t just raise the bar, they sent it into orbit."
I work at a fairly large mobile gaming company. We are stuck on the old version of Unity that doesn't have this fee. But to Unity's credit they are still supporting that version and doing bugfixes for us, but it sucks to be walled off like that, trying to eke out our existence as long as possible until we have to pay a lot more money.
Keeping what hidden? Caught who? The eye-tracking technology is literally a core part of the platform. What is it you're trying to say?
Optimizing front end code in our data views – Quotrail
Subscribed ;)
Bring your own S3 is an awesome feature.
My point is that measuring voltage with low-impedance is essentially introducing a short, which is not really a useful thing to do for most circuits. Bad things tend to happen.
+1 on code formatting. It definitely takes care of a class of issues in practice. While I do have my own preferences, I think it's better to simply have something that can apply on save/paste and that can be the end of it. Changes to the code formatter/version and even swapping out a formatter can be relatively easy and still completely consistent.

I will state that I will prefer a formatter than can apply from a command line as well as integrated plugin. I don't like formatters that rely on an IDE only plugin, I've seen this with VS in particular.
So is this iron competing mostly with other portable, USB c irons, or is there s case for it to also be someone's only, at home,
soldering station iron?
Bash is about the user? Are you serious?

It's about what twenty people could sling together and make work on a Vax in the 80s in 4Kb.

Powershell has regular syntax, legibility, a high degree of discoverability, and included batteries for things that bash victims reimplement again and again.

It may not be the best shell for your purposes - it certainly won't run in 4Kb - but it wipes the floor with all legacy shells for usability.

You're welcome to have an aesthetic opinion on the syntax, but you must be dead inside if you can look at an average bash script and not recoil in horror. Argument parsing? sed? Control statements? Quoting and escaping?

"It's all about the user" is it fuck, you're on drugs.
By default, the timer is set to 30 seconds. You can turn the whole feature off, and it'll never bother you again!
ZFS and Ceph is apples to oranges. ZFS is scoped to a single host, Ceph can span data centers.
They compare the two in the article:

>The star of the show is, of course, the Smart Soldering Iron. It’s a 100 watt iron that comes up to operating temperature in under five seconds and can work with any suitably beefy USB-C Power Delivery source. The size and general proportions of the iron are very close to the Pinecil V2, though the grip is larger and considerably more comfortable to hold. The biggest difference between the two however is the absence of a display or configuration buttons. According to iFixit, most users don’t change their settings enough to justify putting the interface on the iron itself. That doesn’t mean you can’t tweak the iron’s settings when used in this stand-alone configuration, but we’ll get back to that in a minute.
Sure, but if an entire human person is accelerated at 1000g for a period of time that's long enough to lead to a significant change in their location...
Yeah, I don't like the terminology here either. Noisy => something that causes electrical or acoustic interference. Not something that uses too many resources.
Some major, visible components to be added in 2.6 over 2.4 were ALSA, LVM2, and udev, all of which remain in modern kernels. The 2.4 kernel series also had a lot of differences over 2.2 but many of them were "half-baked" compared to where they ended up in 2.6 (e.g., input subsystem, iptables).

Also, module loading was changed significantly; there's some documentation at https://tldp.org/HOWTO/Module-HOWTO/linuxversions.html

The evolution starting from 2.6 has been much more gradual, especially at the interface between the kernel and other code. The version numbers are not nearly as significant as they used to be. There were more fundamental changes between 2.4 and 2.6 than between 3.0 and 4.0. Instead of discrete leaps, the kernel now changes through continuous, small increments, and such a pace was made possible by the current (2.6+) kernel architecture.
Sounds like it’s too unpopular for national let alone state policy.
Can someone ELI5 what is the blockchain part of this? i.e. what emergent behaviors can it unlock that a DB will not.

I tried reading what redstone blockchain was but I cannot make heads or tails out of this:

>> Redstone is a chain built from the ground up for onchain games and autonomous worlds.
I'm not sure the comparison you offer is meaningful because both the UK and Japan have much lower rates of all kinds of crime than the USA, not just firearms-related murders. Even if the UK and Japan had very high gun rates of gun ownership, it is unlikely they would have rates of gun crime as high as those of the USA.

Another reason it is not meaningful is that it makes no difference to a member of the public whether they meet their untimely demise at the barrel of a gun or by some other means. What you want to look at, in countries that have implemented firearms restrictions in recent history, is whether there is an effect on the murder rate or suicide rate.

In many cases, it is hard to say there is a clear positive effect. For example, if we consider the UK's 1988 Firearms Act, which banned semi-automatic rifles, we might start with this data for homicide rates from 1970 to 2023:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeand...

The homicide rate has been under 2 per 100k since 1970 (it is a much lower rate than in the USA) and actually went up for a few years following the act.

In Japan, I doubt we have statistics that reach back far enough to allow us to do a comparison.
Put it on the resume. I'd hire you.
I wrote an interactive notebook visualization and a fast converge optimization for one of these

https://observablehq.com/@tomlarkworthy/rate-estimation
Oh man, I had the exact opposite reaction to 1200 users. If that's retained MAU - that's a lot!

I generally assume someone has 0 users unless they express otherwise.
> Java 1.8 is good enough for eternity, so they have to break it to keep getting a salary.

I don't know, there are quality of life improvement that I quite like in more recent versions.

> They are also trying to deprecate AWT, for their non open-source JavaFX.

JavaFX is GPL with a classpath exception, what are you talking about?

> Make your own encryption.

Why? That's generally considered bad advice.
So this is a very good news for you I guess?
Well, Diamond is still a fervent believer in Clovis-First, despite the entire anthropological community having disavowed that theory about two decades ago.
I consider any action in which the JVM thinks it knows better than me what I can and can't do to running code to be a restriction of my rights. The number of bugs I have fixed, worked around, or triaged using the Reflection API vastly outnumbers the big fat zero of times where someone has complained about an integrity violation on the JVM

So, like I said: if you're a big HFT fund and you need your JVM to do crazy integrity assertions, good for you, but don't burn the whole world down for them. Hell, I would be Azul makes a killing catering to that audience, so let them sell an integrity enabled JVM and leave the rest of us out of this fight
I don't see how this is different from games like Screeps or Second Life or Roblox, which had user-contributed code and functionality long before (and after) blockchains were a thing. There is nothing about user-contributed programming that inherently requires smart contracts, especially when the game is still run on traditional server models.
No, QEMU is a huge C program which can have its own vulnerabilities.

Usually QEMU runs heavily confined, but remote code execution in QEMU (remote = "from the guest") can be a first step towards exploiting a more serious local escalation via a kernel vulnerability. This second vulnerability can be in KVM or in any other part of the kernel.
Where can I buy these cartridges? For JBC we have official catalogue, local retailers, aliexpress, and secondary market full of any tip I might need.

What kind of tips do you plan producing for the fixhub?

P.S.: all JBC stands (genuine and most of knock-offs) have really comfortable holder with detents to change cartridges on-handed on the fly. Do you plan any such features? I do not see any steps or hooks on a tip.
From TFA:

> The vast majority of participants across the four countries overestimated the average personal carbon footprint of the poorest 50% and underestimated those of the richest 10% and 1%.

Edit: are you an LLM?
> after all, variables are just references

That's the whole point of Rust, that they are not that. They are named, sized memory slots that values can be moved into or moved out of.

> I have definitely seen people struggle to wrap their head around ...

The struggle comes from being forced to use recursion where it doesn't make things easier to express but harder. Then they remember it all compiles down to machine code that just uses iteration fueled by bare metal equivalent of goto-s and the struggle feels pointless.

Imagine somebody took away your stack so when you want to do recursion, you'd be forced to roll your own stack every time. You'd struggle too.
Any dope can dream of such things, but Elon has put his dreams to practical use: building a cult of personality with which he creates meme stock valuations among other cult leader shenanigans.
And the fact that this, the literal only solution that has any chance of succeeding, is this far buried down in the comments, says so much about this industry.