skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
I worry about selling off large chunks of their business for short term stock gains, and halting modernization and new fab builds. It's just weird. Upper management is panicking, totally the wrong message to send.
They will be of the past.

This is typical of automation. First, there are numerous workers, then they are reduced to supervisors, then they are gone.

The future of business will be managing AI, so I agree with what you're saying. However most software engineers have a very strong low level understanding of programming. Not a business sense of application
Trying out Double now.

o1 did a significantly better job converting a JavaScript file to TypeScript than Llama 3.1 405B, GitHub Copilot, and Claude 3.5. It even simplified my code a bit while retaining the same functionality. Very impressive.

It was able to refactor a ~160 line file but I'm getting an infinite "thinking bubble" on a ~420 line file. Maybe something's timing out with the longer o1 response times?
This is true, and yet, many orgs who have experimented with OpenAI and are likely to return to them when a project "becomes real". When you google around online for how to do XYZ thing using LLMs, OpenAI is usually in whatever web results you read. Other models and APIs are also now using OpenAI's API format since it's the apparent winner. And for anyone who's already sent out subprocessor notifications with them as a vendor, they're locked in.

This isn't to say it's only going to be an OpenAI market. Enterprise worlds move differently, such as those in G Cloud who will buy a few million $$ of Vertex expecting to "figure out that gemini stuff later". In that sense, Google has a moat with those slices of their customers.

But I believe that when people think OpenAI has no moat because "the models will be a commodity", I think that's (a) some wishful thinking about the models and (b) doesn't consider the sociological factors that matter a lot more than how powerful a model is or where it runs.
Microsoft spent peanuts (for them) on Apple stock in the 90s. Saving Intel will take much more than that for anyone.

Not to mention that Apple had atleast a salvageable IP if done well. Nobody else could compete with them on shipping MacOS machines. Intel has no such moat.
Right? I've been a paramedic-firefighter for 15 years. I was one of the responders when the Amtrak Cascades train came off of a bridge at 85mph onto I-5. One of my partners admired traits in me is "how I always remain calm and logical, even in stressful situations".

Hm.
Tested cipher example, and it got it right. But "thinking logs" I see in the app looks like a summary of actual chain of thought messages that are not visible.
The winners of the 2024 Ig Nobel Prizes
Life as a rich person in the capital city of an Empire is great.

I doubt that people in conquered territories felt the same way about the Empire.
I totally agree that appending in SoftMaker Office to the title does change the meaning dramatically. it narrows down the vulnerability to a specific product that uses the MSI installer but not the MSI as a technology.
What can save it is a potential pointless war by China to destroy Taiwan.
If the Assassin's Creed franchise ever decides to do the Twentieth Century, 1910s Vienna certainly seems like a leading candidate for the setting.
Reminder that it's still not too late to change the direction of progress. We still have time to demand that our politicians put the breaks on AI data centres and end this insanity.

When AI exceeds humans at all tasks humans become economically useless.

People who are economically useless are also politically powerless, because resources are power.

Democracy works because the people (labourers) collectivised hold a monopoly on the production and ownership of resources.

If the state does something you don't like you can strike or refuse to offer your labour to a corrupt system. A state must therefore seek your compliance. Democracies do this by given people want they want. Authoritarian regimes might seek compliance in other ways.

But what is certain is that in a post-AGI world our leaders can be corrupt as they like because people can't do anything.

And this is obvious when you think about it... What power does a child or a disable person hold over you? People who have no ability to create or amass resources depend on their beneficiaries for everything including basics like food and shelter. If you as a parent do not give your child resources, they die. But your child does not hold this power over you. In fact they hold no power over you because they cannot withhold any resources from you.

In a post-AGI world the state would not depend on labourers for resources, jobless labourers would instead depend on the state. If the state does not provide for you like you provide for your children, you and your family will die.

In a good outcome where humans can control the AGI, you and your family will become subjects to the whims of state. You and your children will suffer as the political corruption inevitably arises.

In a bad outcome the AGI will do to cities what humans did to forests. And AGI will treat humans like humans treat animals. Perhaps we don't seek the destruction of the natural environment and the habitats of animals, but woodland and buffalo are sure inconvenient when building a super highway.

We can all agree there will be no jobs for our children. Even if you're an "AI optimist" we probably still agree that our kids will have no purpose. This alone should be bad enough, but if I'm right then there will be no future for them at all.

I will not apologise for my concern about AGI and our clear progress towards that end. It is not my fault if others cannot see the path I seem to see so clearly. I cannot simply be quiet about this because there's too much at stake. If you agree with me at all I urge you to not be either. Our children can have a great future if we allow them to have it. We don't have long, but we do still have time left.
Previous discussion:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40008109
> To "do more stuff"? To "see more things"? To "earn more money"? To "learn more"? Why?

Yes, to all of it.

Life will still be finite with a longer life, but more is more. If offered the opportunity to have your lifespan shortened for no gain would you take it? Obviously not, and likewise if you have the opportunity to increase your lifespan for no cost, it's exactly the same decision.
Oh it's pretty bad in my experience. I'm all iOS/MacOS and I find it's barely workable as it is. Would love to hear more ideas for how to make this better.

The main problem is that I have to manually disconnect the hearings aides in bluetooth settings on my phone so that then I can connect them on my workstation. This allows me to take video calls straight to the hearing aides, which helps a lot.

However, I need that to be for speakers only, microphone has to be wired, so that Bluetooth can use all the bandwidth for higher fidelity audio.

MacOS + Zoom is able to remember enough of these settings that it's "only" a 6 click process (4 on the phone, 2 on the workstation) to switch the hearing aides between devices. If I had to juggle multiple bluetooth devices on either end I suspect it would be much harder.

I make this transition multiple times per day in each direction, so it really adds up!
Relevant: TIL that the West Side of Saint Paul, Minnesota is south of downtown. The separate city of West St. Paul (note the spelling) is also south of downtown Saint Paul. East of West St. Paul is the also separate city of South St. Paul. There is also a separate North Saint Paul (note the spelling).

<https://np.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/comments/1cbvtwt/til_t...>
Communists believe that classical liberalism does not exist. That all systems are an arbitrary unprincipled prejudiced exercise of power with law and merit being clever illusions hiding raw power and prejudice, so if the communists are not exercising it arbitrarily and with no concern for any principal except raw power on behalf of the proletariat, then someone else must be exercising it on behalf of whoever they think should exercise tyrannical power for the greater good like the Japanese, or the Germans racists.

The fascists have the same gnostic and hermetic beliefs as the communists. For example, the Nazi belief in the control of the world by the inferior and evil races, representing the demiurge and all that garbage.

Liberalism, on the other hand, is based on the idea that there are no special people. No enlightened people with the true knowledge of the world, or special truths that would become true if only everyone started believing them.
Again its not reasoning.

Reasoning would imply that it can figure out stuff without being trained in it.

The chain of thought is basically just a more accurate way to map input to output. But its still a map, i.e forward only.

If an LLM coud reason, you should be able to ask it a question about how to make a bicycle frame from scratch with a small home cnc with limited work area and it should be able to iterate on an analysis of the best way to put it together, using internet to look up available parts and make decisions on optimization.

No LLM can do that or even come close, because there are no real feedback loops, because nobody knows how to train a network like that.
It's not too complicated if you leave out docker, ci/cd, cdn, waf, etc.

Not all the fault of node.js
If you take a photo the photons hitting the camera sensor do so in a probabilistic fashion. Still, in sufficient light you'll get the same picture every time you press the shutter button. In near darkness you'll get a random noise picture every time.

Similarly language models are probabilistic and yet they get the easiest questions right 100% of the time with little variability and the hardest prompts will return gibberish. The point of good prompting is to get useful responses to questions at the boundary of what the language model is capable of.

(You can also configure a language model to generate the same output for every prompt without any random noise. Image models for instance generate exactly the same image pixel for pixel when given the same seed.)
There's probably less carbon on the base models, than on the heavier high end models.
General Motors and General Electric are two large companies that slowly became much much less relevant. Intel's collapse if it comes will also have been a decade+ in the making.
Hi, we want to make it affordable for everyone and we plan to operate at breakeven at $5/month.
Split the fab business off and allow them to fab for anyone, for starters.
N100 has a recommended tray price of $55

I feel like if they sold a million of them $55MM in revenue isn’t moving the needle much at all, even with a 100% profit margin.
I felt this was strongly, and felt incredibly sure of that, until I read Stratechery on it last week: https://stratechery.com/2024/intel-honesty/

It slipped by me how much AMD eating a little more every quarter really added up over the last ~5 years. (~9% to ~50% of datacenter revenue)

Also, the foundry stuff just isn't working as a financial exercise: they can't split it out as a division and massively subsidize it and seem responsible. And there's ~0 light on the horizon. No one wants to use it, even Intel is falling back to using TSMC's leading nodes now, which is letting it tread water against ARM in laptops.

If their confusing plan to do 5 nodes in 2 years or whatever works out, that'd enable them to start reversing the tide: they'd still have to build the same muscles TSMC has from always being a foundry, like having generic designs that are already in the market available, and convince people to switch suppliers, which is always risky, and usually done over years.
Exactly that I see in the Android app.
That was a terrifying read.
Is this the same thing as night frights that some people are prone to?
No need for llms to do that

ruby -r time -e 'puts Time.parse("2020-09-01 01:00:00 +00:00").to_i'
Illumos and ZFS sounds completely sensible for a company that runs on specific hardware. They mention the specific epyc cpu their systems are running on which suggests they're all ~ identical.

Linux has a massive advantage where it comes to hardware support for all kinds of esoteric devices. If you don't need that, and you've got engineers that are capable of patching the OS to support your hardware, yep, have at it. Good call.
GF sold its EUV machine several years ago when it decided to stop trying to compete at the leading edge of logic processes.
So, they're not comparable to what TSMC, Intel and Samsung are doing.
Knowledge and Memory: The Real Story (1995)
Is there any industry where x86 is absolutely necessary? Assuming ARM or other architectures could achieve same performance/$ or watt?
so i've had some chance to look at different people trying out o1 and heres my take:

its largely hype with some interesting moments

First they used it to compare it to gpt4o not gpt4. Second the benchmark they used for coding is iffy since we've already seen scores around 1400ish from other LLMs last year. Third I can't help but feel this is some marketing gimmick to get more ChatGPT Plus subscribers.

I almost subbed to it thinking I'd have full access to the coding version for o1 but seems like they released a nerfed version.

It also seems like Claude has long implemented the same RL techniques to its CoT.

I rarely use ChatGPT and Claude has replaced the need for even Cursor (using ClaudeDev)

I'm going to wait until the full o1 is released for lower tier ChatGPT users and I feel like this CoT they are keeping internal is to raise the cost of prompts

so my early excitement this evening has largely subsided and I'm back on Claude again after logging into ChatGPT in months
>> Joking aside, I can see the US engaging in heavy-handed protectionism to help Intel.

Also, you can see it when we punish other businesses who had better strategy

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/nvidia-justice-department-probe-...
Same. It might also be pertinent to the radicle protocol, which was posted a few days ago and which I'm still slogging through. This has led to one of the most satisfying wikipedia dives in a long time, and I haven't even finished the original article. The wikipedia entry for DFS is very well written. Intuitively I would have structured find via path splitting, so I'm glad that the article covered all three find variations. Then that led to MSTs, and Kruskal's algorithm, then radix search (still reading). This thread is the first time hearing about CLR, so I'm definitely going to add that to my reading list, alongside Purely Functional Data Structures.
But the article mentions that capital spending is down. Their revenue is also not really growing to support even bigger investments. Government subsidy will only take them so far. And they have stronger competitors in almost every domain they compete in.
Perhaps you realize the company is doomed and decide to loot its reserves in the form of salary and bonuses, leaving creditors and investors holding the empty bag in a bankruptcy.
I'm curious, with Cursor, why do you still need to use Claude?
Most of the money Intel is investing now is thanks to giant state sponsorship.
Basically you have to get out of bubbles to get more ideas + boredom.
Yeah, when you get into what hearing aides do, there's quite a bit going on.

This manual is a useful place to start:
https://order.starkeypro.com/pdfs/The_Compression_Handbook.p...
"After two sets of disastrous quarterly earnings the company’s market value has shriveled to $84bn, less than the value of its plants and equipment, from over $210bn in January."

That's scary.

Fabs are so insanely expensive now. US$1 billion to US$4 billion each. Without the money to keep up, Intel becomes a niche player.
My father worked for the Sheriff's Office in Australia, maybe 25 years ago. It should be noted that there, the Sheriff's Office is not a police department, but something in between the Marshal Service and a process server.

My father's boss was the Sheriff for the state. Australian law still had two capital crimes (I don't know if they are, currently): high treason, and piracy on the high seas.

Not exactly common crimes, to be sure.

But under law, if someone had been convicted of one, my father's boss would have to either have overseen the execution (by hanging, and somewhere in the bowels of his offices was the equipment), if not conducted it himself.

He was very vocal that the minute someone even stood trial for one of those crimes, he was resigning his commission, to avoid any chance of that.
Sorry, I could not grok the difference, even after reading a few Rust examples.

def foo(int | None = None) ...

... just means the variable's default value is None in a function definition. But it could be either in an actual function call.
AMD almost went bankrupt until xbox and ps apus saved them.
Intel just need a chance to reform
this is completely illogical. this is like gambling your life savings and as the die are rolling you say "i am incredibly fortunate to be witnessing this." like, you need to know the outcome before you know whether it was fortunate or unfortunate... this could be the most unfortunate thing that has ever happened in history.
Point taken, but I'm still pretty sure masseurs/masseuses have nothing to worry about.
The bit you’re quoting is one of the complaints people have raised. It is not the only complaint, and given the near unanimous support for the strike it is not even likely the biggest complaint. They also mention the company handing out PIPs like candy and fears from automation, problems I think many people on this site can sympathize with.
Malicious compliance?
Direct link to full resolution: https://i.postimg.cc/D74LJb45/SCR-20240912-sdko.png
It is according to level-headed history.
Hmm, ok. I lucid dream, but I can also daydream with nearly the same clarity. I use the daydreaming for most visualization and memory recall use cases. I could see how vivid dreaming could be used instead of that.
Looks nice, well done.

Though I worry about the narrowness and "whip-up-ability" for the price and target market. It's a small enough featureset in a domain that skews technical, many would be inclined to template an HTML table to wkhtml2pdf and call it a day. Maybe they'd open source it after. I suppose you're aiming for the people who wouldn't do that, but would still expend the effort of integrating with an external HTTP API (and paying monthly for it)

I know a measure of a project's usefulness is "if a HN commenter says they could make it in a weekend but haven't, you've got something!", so maybe I'm wrong.

P.s. 50 pages / 1Mb per PDF is ludicrously far too small for a business tier.
Apple is its own nation state. Why would they show any support for the US industrial base?

They support lowest cost manufacturing in China even when those suppliers have been proven to have stolen the tech (free R&D!) with state support.
They're not in a position to grind out the AI supercomputers of today's excitement. Those aren't the chips I'm worried about from a national security perspective.

It's the microcontrollers and FPGAs controlling weapons systems that really should be made within the country boundaries and that should be completely fine on GF's machinery.
It was: http://web.archive.org/web/20240911190011/https://spectrum.i...
Getting complex problem = having the solution in some form in the training dataset.

All we are gonna get is better and better googles.
Interview Learnings from Former CIA Intelligence Officer
The link also breaks if the original user deletes the chat that was being linked to, whether on purpose or without realizing it would also break the link.
There’s something of a case for Nvidia to buy or merge with Intel before AMD does …
Cover the basics. Sleep 9h (yes), eat healthy, do some exercise, etc. but most important is sleep imo.
I'd love to have Intel's cash flow while being on "life support", thanks.

This was like the stupid ass DEC hostile giveaway to Compaq while DEC had almost 2 gigabucks+ a year in enterprise services revenue that was going to continue forever. A single year of services revenue was almost as large as the entire merger deal.

And then, as PCs crashed and burned, Compaq couldn't figure out what to do with all that cash, either!

Executive morons all around.
If overeating really made people obese, wouldn’t they just not overeat?

If drinking too much really gives people hangovers, wouldn’t they just never drink too much?

If going into debt made it harder for people to afford the things they want, wouldn’t they just never spend more than they have?

People’s hypocrisy and witting or unwitting opting into bad outcomes has quite literally zero bearing on whether the bad outcomes exist or not.
That would be an argument for splitting Intel into two, the contract fab business and the design business. It's tough to make a partnership with Intel to fab your chip design if their other arm is competing with you on the same thing. Intel's process is tailored to their own designs which make it hard for outsiders to optimize. So, it's not only risky from a business perspective to make Intel your manufacturing partner, it's also more difficult than the alternatives.

Imho it's pretty likely that this will happen. Intel's IP will be sold off, while their manufacturing business remain, both due to the geopolitical situation and because although they have seen setbacks in recent years, they are still damn good at making chips.
So the new model will modify its representation of the inputs to make it seem like its output is more suitable, and will give more literally correct but useless results?

OpenAI say “look it’s smarter”, but to me this sounds like it’s hitting a wall, and that it’s unable to achieve better results in the ways people want.
It is the same old story. Once the bean counters take charge, pandering to Wall St becomes the one and only priority. Engineering is deemed an expense and thus has to be cut and cut. The old experienced engineers retire and the new generation of engineers gravitate to companies with more favorable culture.

McDonnell Douglas takeover Boeing is an example.
Asked it to write PyTorch code which trains an LLM and it produced 23 steps in 62 seconds.

With gpt4-o it immediately failed with random errors like mismatched tensor shapes and stuff like that.

The code produced by gpt-o1 seemed to work for some time but after some training time it produced mismatched batch sizes. Also, gpt-o1 enabled cuda by itself while for gpt-4o, I had to specifically spell it out (it always used cpu). However, showing gpt-o1 the error output resulted in broken code again.

I noticed that back-and-forth iteration when it makes mistakes has worse experience because now there's always 30-60 sec time delays. I had to have 5 back-and-forths before it produced something which does not crash (just like gpt-4o). I also suspect too many tokens inside the CoT context can make it accidentally forget some stuff.

So there's some improvement, but we're still not there...
The performance on programming tasks is impressive, but I think the limited context window is still a big problem.

Very few of my day-to-day coding tasks are, "Implement a completely new program that does XYZ," but more like, "Modify a sizable existing code base to do XYZ in a way that's consistent with its existing data model and architecture." And the only way to do those kinds of tasks is to have enough context about the existing code base to know where everything should go and what existing patterns to follow.

But regardless, this does look like a significant step forward.
You realize you are telling me what I meant?

The salary of the employee provides the basis of their cost to the company, so any tool that increases their productivity for a small portion of that cost is something they are going to consider.

I wasn't imagining that the typical person making $60k year would enjoy blowing thousands of dollars on a CAD package. This is why they aren't cheap though, because typical people don't buy CAD packages, companies do.
> I was one of them!

I still one of them!