skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
The calculations here seem to depend on a few false assumptions:

1. That all datacenter GPUs being purchased are feeding AI. You might be able to argue that some are or a lot are, but you don't know how many just looking at Nvidia sales numbers. I know of at least two projects deploying rows of cabinets in datacenters full of GPUs for non-AI workloads.

2. The assumption that pay-for-an-API is the only AI business model. What we now call "AI" has been driving Google's search and ad businesses for nearly a decade, sooo AI is already doing $300B/yr in revenue? There is no way for this guy to quantify how AI is solving problems that aren't SaaS.

David Chan, if you are reading this feel free to email me if you want a fact check for what will surely be the third installment in the series.
Cops on HN!? Just a heads up, you have a choice not to watch and inadvertently reward people who annoy you on the internet.
Because there's no legal basis to sue them.
That is scary. However, being able to see my own data is more important to me in this case.
It's not an issue of typing speed, it's that puzzling out what was said takes a number of re-listens, at high gain which hurts my ears after a while since the voice is just barely above the noise floor.
(And tech)
There were also people who doubted the Segway, Magic Leap, Theranos, 3D TVs, Windows Phone, and Google Glass.

I think doubt is OK, at least it is before any particular technology or product has actually proven itself.
According to Jensen it takes about 8000 H100s running for 90 days to train a 1.8 Trillion param MoE GPT-4 scale model.

Meta has about 350,000 of these GPUs and a whole bunch of A100s. This means the ability to train 50 GPT-4 scale models every 90 days or 200 such models per year.

This level of overkill suggests to me that the core models will be commoditized to oblivion, making the actual profit margins from AI-centric companies close to 0, especially if Microsoft and Meta keep giving away these models for free.

This is actually terrible for investors, but amazing for builders (ironically).

The real value methinks is actually over the control of proprietary data used for training which is the single most important factor for model output quality. And this is actually as much an issue for copyright lawyers rather than software engineers once the big regulatory hammers start dropping to protect American workers.
This is like claiming books change the world. In one sense they do, but in a a bit more real sense it’s people reading books who change the world. A crucial distinction.
Microsoft settles California probe over worker leave for $14M
I believe that's exactly what he means with "text characters".. as in a character (or letter) of some text.
Not to mention that wooden piles were often treated with an absolutely massive amount of creosote, to the point that a number of timber pile treatment yards are superfund sites.
This is false equivalence and you know better. Electricity is foundational technology. What we call AI are LLMs, which are great and useful, but not in the same league as something foundational like electricity.
Count Dankula

https://news.sky.com/story/essex-pub-that-had-golliwog-dolls...

UK pub raided by police to seize offensive dolls

https://metro.co.uk/2022/11/02/met-police-officers-jailed-fo...

UK police arrested for offensive jokes in whatsapp group chat

https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2024-03-01/man-jailed-over...

UK man arrested for offensive stickers
depends on what you're working on. i'm a senior engineer currently doing a lot of scaffolding for startups and my copilot saves me a ton of time. life's good.
Many of the winners haven't even been formed yet. And most of the losers have already lost, they just don't know it yet.
> text characters
Many website admins have yet to get memo to remove Polyfillio links
LogiXpace – a hub to create and share your custom logic gate ciruits with ease
Show HN: Xcapture-BPF – like Linux top, but with Xray vision
If, like me, you're using LLMs on a daily basis and getting real personal value out of them, it's hard not to conclude that they're going to have a big impact.

I don't need a crystal ball for this. The impact is already evident for us early-adopters, it's just not evenly distributed yet.

That's not to say they're not OVER hyped - changing the entire company roadmap doesn't feel like a sensible path to me for most companies.
A lot of those GPUs are for their 3B users to run inferencing, no?
Repeat after me: An LLM is not AI. The internet enabled a whole new world of possible applications. It's unlikely this or even the next upgrade to ML will get there. If we get to AGI, sure, that's grpund-breaking, but we're still a few steps removed from that.
How can anyone not see just how impactful it's going to be? Or already is? I can't think of a single recent technology that was so widely adopted by tech and non-tech people alike, immediately integrated into day-to-day experience. The rise of mobile phones and e-commerce in the 90s would be the last time I've seen this happen (I'm not counting smartphones, as those are more of an iteration). Or social media, in purely software space.

I've just had GPT-4o write me a full-featured 2048 clone in ~6 hours of casual chat, in between of work, making dinner, and playing with kids; it cost me some $4 in OpenAI bills, and I didn't write a single line of code. I see non-tech people around me using ChatGPT for anything from comparison shopping to recipe adjustments. One person recently said to me that their dietitian is afraid for their career prospects because ChatGPT is already doing this job better than she is. This is a small fraction of cases in my family&friends circle; anyone who hasn't lived under the rock, or wasn't blinded by the memetic equivalent of looking at a nuclear weapon detonation, likely has a lot of similar things to say. And all of that is not will, it's is, right now.
Hackers abused API to verify Authy MFA phone numbers
The simplest would be dead battery on a solo run. I've killed mine on a workout before. I've also delayed a workout to charge and ended up regretting it.

More likely you're young, mad fit, and have some energy you want to burn off with a friend. You've heard about the Olympic Village.

No way do I want to tell some official whose apartment I'm visiting.
You need measure theory for probability, economics, QFT and Physics, etc. And who is doing "all the math"? The vast majority of resarchers who "do math" are largely in PDEs and other fields that simply use the technology of math for "things that you find in reality" like engineering problems or machine learning and so forth. And most mathmaticians would agree that it is some of the most uninteresting and ugly kind of math.

Whereas the relative minority of people who study really abstract things like say k-theory or large cardinals in set theory are largely doing it out of interest in it's intrinsic beauty. And this is especially true for idk, some esoteric subfield of tropical geometry or modal logic or something, who's relevance to "things you find in reality" are completely orthogonal as to the motivations of those people who chose to spend their lives uncovering the truths within them.

Math research isn't about blindly marching from proof to proof by mechanical deduction with no conception of the larger picture like a uniform bubble spreading outwards, it is done by small communities of scholars who hack away at a specific nexus of interesting problems and structures for their own sake.

Sometimes, like with spin bundles or lie algebras or non-abelian geometry, yeah you can apply it to "real" problems, but that's not how the theory was developed, and as a theoretical physicist I will tell you that you will find no greater blindness to the underlying structure or ugliness in the use of the technology than those people that exclusively wield the technology against "real" problems, instead of appreciating it for its own sake.
There is an old study that supports your point. The abstract reads:

"Several studies have shown that pioneers have long-lived market share advantages and are likely to be market leaders in their product categories. However, that research has potential limitations: the reliance on a few established databases, the exclusion of nonsurvivors, and the use of single-informant self-reports for data collection. The authors of this study use an alternate method, historical analysis, to avoid these limitations. Approximately 500 brands in 50 product categories are analyzed. The results show that almost half of market pioneers fail and their mean market share is much lower than that found in other studies. Also, early market leaders have much greater long-term success and enter an average of 13 years after pioneers."

PDF available here:

https://people.duke.edu/~moorman/Marketing-Strategy-Seminar-...
Elevenlabs has some pretty cool stuff but I really despise how it's all cloud based. Wish there was an audio ai company following a path similar to what topaz has been doing for video/photo ai with desktop software. Open source has been lagging more than I expected in this area too.
Wow! What kind of data are you generating that 2TB ‘just isn’t very much’? (Video editing?) All my personal files take up around 10GB in my Google Drive.
At least CIA can do this already via cell tower logs.
That Wiki page even has a section about the RH:

> The Riemann hypothesis is noteworthy for its appearance on the list of Hilbert problems, Smale's list, the list of Millennium Prize Problems, and even the Weil conjectures, in its geometric guise. Although it has been attacked by major mathematicians of our day, many experts believe that it will still be part of unsolved problems lists for many centuries. Hilbert himself declared: "If I were to awaken after having slept for a thousand years, my first question would be: Has the Riemann hypothesis been proved?"
Existentialism (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)
I imagine senior roles in telecom are hard to come by considering the growth of that industry.
Repeat after me: "AI hype" is not like Bitcoin hype, it's like Dot-com boom.

Generative models are already changing how people live and work. Ignore the grifters, and ignore the entrepreneurs. Look at civilians, regular folks, and watch how it impacts them.
If a hot dog isn’t a sandwich and a taco isn’t a sandwich, why is a pita sandwich a sandwich? Shouldn’t a pita be a taco?
Very true! From where I sit, most of the hype cycles were overestimated in the short term & underestimated in the long term: world wide web, mobile, big data, autonomous cars, AI, quantum, biotech, fintech, clean tech, space and even crypto.
I gonna take my time to think about it.
As a Spaniard myself it is shocking how many people believe the propaganda of being "Republic" vs fascism. If you consider Franco fascist because they were supported by Hitler, you should consider the other side communist for being supported by Stalin.

Because that is exactly what the "Republic" wanted in Spain, the dictatorship of the proletarian.
The cool thing about the word alternative is that it does not mean "drop in replacement".
How Shopify implemented read consistency across their database replicas
The secret sauce in the cloud is not hardware but control plane, networking, and storage software.
That's the theory that we're all high on sugar because our gut bacteria are feeding us neurochemicals.

There's certainly circumstantial evidence that's true.
Mental Modeling of Reinforcement Learning Agents by Language Models
I can't see any news out of Sequoia without remember how massively bullish they were on FTX.
How is this different from Auphonic?

https://auphonic.com/features
They also had higher end and more labor intensive processes like precious metal castings, I assume by printing in a resin that can be burned out of a mold, then casting in the void it leaves behind.

I always figured this was the main part of their business, and people who just wanted 3D printed plastic parts were either doing a small quantity or would buy their own printer and not be repeat customers.

https://www.shapeways.com/materials/platinum

There are services like CNC machining and injection molding too, not nearly as easy to bring those in-house compared to 3D printers. But also more competition in that space.
There were Nokias running Maemo ahead of the iPhone. Note these were not Symbian.

The 770 was released in Q4 '05.

They definitely fell within the smartphone category, but oddly the first few iterations lacked GSM radio.
Remember that this is written by Venture Capital investors, and they make high risk, high reward bets.

I don't know the exact numbers, but I guess only maybe 5% of all investments in a given batch make any impact on the total return.

So for a VC, if there's a 10% chance that this whole AI thing will be a financial success, it's chance of success is already twice as high as average, so a pretty good bet.
Ditto. This was a really nice read!
> Although it was brief before it was crushed.

Thus my point...
While 1st ammendment auditors are cringe, they only annoy police. This comment is definately pro LE coded and the irony does not escape me with its criticism of people expressing their 1st amendment (regardless of how annoying their method).

Perhaps we should demonitize every form of journalism and media that annoys this guy!
VCs in general hate core AI because it is dominated by large players that don't need VC money to be successful. If someone was taking Sequoia money to buy GPUs they'd be singing a completely different tune.
I wonder if something similar to a Wii Remote's tracking would work better for controlling the cursor, as that would let you point right where you want instead of needing to use gyro.
If you believe that what we describe as "consciousness" is emergent from the ideas a material brain develops about itself, then it's in fact not logically possible to have a world that is physically identical to ours yet does not contain consciousness. So indeed, premise 2. sneaks in the conclusion.

To illustrate this point, here's an argument with the same structure that would similarly "prove" that gravity doesn't cause things to fall down:

1. In our world, there is gravity and things fall down.

2. There is a logically possible world where there is gravity yet things do not fall down.

3. Therefore, things falling down is a further fact about our world, over and above gravity.

4. So, gravity causing things to fall down is false.
https://www.reddit.com/r/synology/comments/zhwif2/my_new_nas...
Same here. I have wireguard vpn for the few times i need it to tunnel my traffic through home or need to access larger files not sync’ed with syncthing.

My nas is a Synology. Vpn is also used so that i can continue sending timemachine backups back home when i’m traveling.
We Launched a Placer.ai for Latam
Hey HN,

I’m excited to share some news about Crezes, a startup that’s making significant strides in AI data analysis. We’ve recently raised $750,000 in a pre-seed round, and we wanted to tell you more about our journey and what we aim to achieve.

What is Crezes?

Crezes is focused on revolutionizing how businesses access and analyze location-based data. Our platform allows users to draw polygons on maps to retrieve data for specific geographic areas, enabling more precise and actionable insights.

Why It Matters

In today’s data-driven world, having accurate and relevant data is crucial for making informed decisions. Whether it’s for market analysis, urban planning, or logistics optimization, our tool provides a simple yet powerful way to harness the potential of geospatial data.

Our Journey

The pre-seed round was led by a group of enthusiastic investors who believe in our vision. This funding will enable us to enhance our platform’s capabilities, expand our team, and accelerate our growth. We’re committed to making geospatial data analysis accessible and valuable for businesses of all sizes.

What’s Next?

We’re continually working on new features and improvements. If you’re interested in seeing our platform in action or learning more about what we do, feel free to reach out. We’d love to connect with fellow tech enthusiasts and professionals in the AI and data analysis space.

Looking forward to your thoughts and feedback!
Those jobs reports might be crooked somehow, I don't trust them.

Could be fake job postings (companies might do it for whatever reasons, e.g. for H1B PERM), or duplicates.

Or those are all simply low-wage jobs, which could be the simplest explanation.

We need better statistics, because obviously those official reports do not reflect the reality many people face today. Something is off.
High print prices, economies of scale can't match injection moulding. A lot of 3d projects can't get off the ground, because of it. High unit prices of 3d-printed items kill sales and the cost of launching projects using injection moulding is beyond the reach of a lot of designers. I had to park mine, because I cannot sell my project for $60 per item and to sell it for $5 I'd need to pay ~$15k for the mould, material, manufacturing of at least 10,000 items for the market where I might sell 500 to 1000 items. It just does not add up.
Nokias were very open. You had a terminal with apt-get.

The entire device was a regular Linux machine.
IDK. Blockchains have been super hyped. The tech is undeniably cool. But I have yet to see an example of them solving a real problem for anyone who's not a criminal.

In contrast, I've put in very little effort to use AI, but I'm noticing things.

I see high quality AI-generated images in blog posts. They look awesome.

I look over my coworker's shoulder and see vscode predict exactly the CSS properties and values he's looking for.

Another coworker uses AI to generate a working example of FPGA code that compiles and runs on a Xilinx datacenter device.

An AI assistant pops up in Facebook messenger. My girlfriend and I are immediately able to start sending each other high quality, ultra-specific inside joke AI generated memes. This has added real value to my life.

I'm starting to feel FOMO, a bit worried that if I don't go hard on learning this new tool I'm going to be left in the dust. To me at least, AI feels different.
> Two out of three factors have to be present to ban a drug:

> - be performance enhancing - present a health risk - violate the spirit of sport

There also are drugs banned that mask the use of performance enhancing drugs. You could call that “violate the spirit of the sport”, but that’s so vague a term it could cover anything.
It's getting better and new UIs for it are being tested like Claude and artifacts.

Sr. Eng adopted copilot and sung it's praises a lot faster then the jr engineers. Especially when working on codebases with less familiar languages.
Early Adopters are always True Believers. That's why they are early adopters. Every single one of them is going to say "The impact is clear! Look around you! I use XYZ every day!" You really don't know what the adoption curve will look like until you get into the Late Majority.
When the US invaded Cambodia in 1970, Prince Sihanouk was ousted and Lon Nol took charge. Sihanouk then allied with the independent Cambodian communists, and after a war in which the US bombed Cambodia more than Europe was bombed in WWII, the coalition of Sihanouk and the communists took over in 1975.

In 1979 the Vietnamese invaded Cambodia and took over much of the country with the help of Vietnamese aligned communists.

The US then began arming the coalition of Sihanouk and the communists not aligned with Vietnam. It also fought for their seat at the UN.

So the US began arming and supporting Pol Pot in 1979, as did China. This was covered to one extent or another in the New York Times, Nightline etc.

Don't really get people tut tutting Chomsky being a Vietnam and Cambodia dove when the US was arming Pol Pot starting in 1979.
It's like someone thinking that they are SOOOO smart, they are going to get rich selling shovels in the gold rush. So they overpay for the land, they overpay for the factory, they overpay for their sales staff.

And then someone else starts giving away shovels for free.
IMO the fundamental difficulty is that anarchism is framed in terms of a negative - the absence of hierarchy. This makes it a fantastic foundation for critiquing existing (power) structures on their own merits in isolation. But that foundation makes proposing new structures a secondary concern. So then you get the various schools, each trying to describe how they themselves think society should be positively structured, while awkwardly trying to avoid the fact they're proposing new structure, and all the ways that can (and likely will) go wrong.

The problem gets especially poignant when trying to push existing society in one of these specific directions, where undermining some power structures can cause others to fill the vacuum. You'll also find yourself in opposition to other groups pushing for their own freedom, but focused on a different part of the existing power structure that makes the most sense for them to start with.

My own synthesis is something along the lines of anarchism without adjectives where we need to be against immediate oppression of individuals by power structures, but also realizing that scaling any such movements will inevitably spawn their own oppressive hierarchies, likely aimed at people different than us. Ultimately I think the larger societal changes in individual freedom are created by new technologies, each of which can either support or oppress individual freedom.
I'm a complete idiot. I almost bought an HTC fuse too
> I don't understand what "Zig comptime is part of the compiling process" means in contrast to Racket.

You've made that clear, yes.
I don't think this is a great response from Twilio. It feels more distracting than addressing.

> Twilio has detected that threat actors were able to identify data associated with Authy accounts, including phone numbers, due to an unauthenticated endpoint. We have taken action to secure this endpoint and no longer allow unauthenticated requests.

But it is too late, as the threat actors have gotten away with the data.

> We have seen no evidence that the threat actors obtained access to Twilio’s systems or other sensitive data. As a precaution, we are requesting that all Authy users update to the latest Android and iOS apps for the latest security updates.

And this is irrelevant but is drawing attention elsewhere. This 'attack' is adjacent to but not completely related to the app.
Indeed, it seems like an obvious thing to do. But just as you noted, it's not very clear LLMs really can improve over Prolog in terms of expressiveness and practicality given that Prolog already was designed for natural language parsing and is a concise formalism based on predicate logic (and ultimately propositional and first order logic) with constraint domain theory embeddings such as for arithmetic. Prolog syntax is also the starting point for most constraint solvers, and Prolog evaluation is also often referred to as basis for generalization into constraint solving. Though I'm not sure this generalization bears much value tbh when the break-through successes in constraint solving were particular domain-specific techniques (SAT solvers, interval propagation, arc consisteny/finite domain propagation, etc).
Being overqualified is a real thing, ain't it?
Moshi: A voice AI that can display emotions
I started teaching myself programming 40 years ago and I believe that Copilot and other AI programming tools are now an essential part of programming. I have my own agent framework which I am using to help complete some tasks automatically.

Maybe take a look at tools like aider-chat with Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Or just have a discussion with gpt-4o about any programming area that you aren't particularly familiar with already.

Unless you literally decided you learned everything you need and don't try to solve new types of problems or use new (to you) platforms ever..