skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
I don't see that anybody here has said he ended up in Russia because he wanted to be friendly with Russia. Rather simply that going to Russia (and then getting stuck there) was the better alternative to being persecuted by USG.

There would be no repercussions for the Kremlin being exposed as having instructed Snowden on what to say. Russian propaganda works in the presence of everyone knowing it's propaganda, by sheer volume. There would obviously be repercussions for Snowden if he talked about any such thing though. The dynamic could also merely just be the implication though, coupled with a bunch of understandable resentment from having been persecuted by USG.

(and I don't really care to engage with the whataboutist relativist argument)
> It's more like you got your croissants but without a name brand or receipt.

No, because the structural integrity might not be there. A food analogy doesn't really work well, but the effect of mixing up different titanium manufacturing processes could easily be as extreme as having a completely different type of food. But much harder to test for!
It's not supposed to be a "fair" comparison, it's just an observation. You already understand where the difference comes from. The article goes into some detail to explain it to a person who doesn't.

The actual point of that example isn't even about lossy vs lossless anyway, it's about how 300 frames can take up nearly the space as one frame (interframe compression).
KDE Receives New Human Interface Guidelines for 2024
It would probably be a good start if Israel just stopped bombing or otherwise closing Palestine's sea front or land borders with other countries. They don't even have to open their own border to civilians trying to escape their air strikes!
Yep - https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/lambda-the-ult...

The point was more one of "Excel is an IDE for a functional language." Doing large projects in Excel should take as much care / design / thought as large projects in Lisp (or any other language).

That Excel is everywhere and people often do simple things that grow large without having the discipline of managing the complexity that excel can become - that's where there's problems.

Rather if you say to someone with enough skill to get started "here's
python, good luck" you'll get similar results as "here's Excel, good luck." Just that you'll have an easier time persuading cooperate IT to install Excel on your machine compared to Python.
> In a very close future every single programmer is going to have chatgpt open.

I thought that for a little bit, paid for it for several months, but it's not enough better imo - and the hallucination rabbit holes burn harder than the productive chats make up for.

But something like it probably, it just might be harder to say oh yeah LLMs did that it wasn't over hyped after all. Augmented search, or just improvements to search with a more familiar presentation. Summarise the small amount of information from blogspam and collapse them all, turn a NL question into a few different salient keyword searches, that sort of thing. I haven't tried Kagi's AI yet (I've only used it at all for a few searches while DDG was down recently) but maybe they're doing something interesting or worth watching at least.
I remember when bitcoin was taking off, and everyone instantly started saying "bitcoin may not win but one thing is for sure, the **blockchain** is here to stay." Then 15 years went by and the crypto market is basically bitcoin, which won as a store of value, and then a long tail of shitcoins that were "unlocked by the blockchain as a platform."

AI feels to me like it's in a similar state. ChatGPT was a genuinely exciting breakthrough, and because of the previous example of web, everyone instantly wants to see "LLMs as a platform" take off. This has not happened whatsoever. I literally only use ChatGPT. I don't even use Copilot because it's janky and doesn't solve any real problems for me. I guess I sometimes use the RAG-based applications (like docs pages now support a ChatGPT interface), but these are basically ChatGPT with some extra context injected in-- so, ChatGPT. You talk to any of these AI companies and they all admit they're just using the AI label to fundraise and behind the scenes it's either a CRUD app or the thinnest GPT integration in front. I literally don't use any other AI applications. They're all annoying and flooding the web and it is pure clutter everywhere that adds no benefit ever, all because everyone wants to see "LLMs as a platform."

I grew up being a huge fan of YC, and I would respect them so much more if they would take the contrarian (but in my humble opinion correct) view and say actually, judging by the structural evidence and actual results, it's not clear what exactly AI has to offer right now, and we're going to return to PG's founding philosophy and continue funding unsexy and unpopular but ultimately actually important things.
LLMs won't lead to "AGI" (which we can't even clearly define). We'll get some amazing tools and automate a lot of low level jobs, but ultimately this round of AI technology will make us cyborgs rather than give us skynet.

When we have developed catalogues of models and other tools and we start training an agent to learn how to create arbitrary graphs of/programs with those tools we might be close. Think of Demis' "play any video game" AI but with successively more complex real world problems and sensor data.
it could have been divine revelation. what matters is that it is used to this day for policy.
Huh. That looks like an insanely qualified founding team. Not a big enough market?
you mean because that's how you get to be a meme stock? yep.
stock markets are casinos filled with know-nothing high-rollers and pension sheep.
The aspect that I personally would enjoy is privacy and low maintenance + easy fixes.
I can afford expensive low tech.
I'm in the LLM-wont-lead-to-AGI camp.

But it's a game changer.

Software development. Education. Marketing. Writing. It's already generating millions of dollars of value. Considering the speed things are improving right now, it's only going to go up.

There are a lot of dynamics at play and I'm not sure how it'll turn out overall. I'm especially curious about how it will turn out when a generation of software developers that learned programming/graduated with GPT enters into the workforce.
I am sympathetic to the cyberpunk anarchist position but how the system is currently set up, from my understanding, is some non-technical person could say, purchase a used laptop from facebook marketplace where the previous owner didn't remove Freenet and then get caught up in a child porn sting and go to prison without not only having no idea what Freenet is, but also having never engaged with, sought after, or viewed the material and merely because that program was running in the background.

I'm not trying to be a scold here, I've been running Tor for 20 years, I actually care about this stuff. I just don't think people should be sent to the clinker and outcast as a child pornographer for a background process
Interest rates have been above guaranteed yields for some time now. When does the free money end?
I just wish the food problem was completely solved so I would be happy with dark kitchens. There should be a service that I don't have to think about bringing me healthy foods with taste thay I can bear. That is all I care about.
For example you had some issue while developing the application, but you don't remember what parameters did you use to create this bug.

Or for example, you were reading some article but did not save it and now want to recall it.

Or maybe you watched some music clip or song on the some website and forgot the link to website.

A lot of use cases.
Honest question: why?

MAGA's brand is being unapologetically offensive. Surely they can take what they give.
Couldn't agree more. And Pat Deegan's YT channel [1] is such a gem. His last few videos covering asic design toolchain, Kicad 8, and FPGA design are excellent.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/@PsychogenicTechnologies/videos
That’s the part I didn’t understand either. You’re not. You can’t. Because that’s how the city was built. But if the city was built differently a married couple of professionals could get to work without a car.

There’s more to it than this. Check out the Not Just Bikes YouTube channel for the whole story
> To say the world today looks nothing like it did 10 years ago is an understatement.

10 years ago was 2014. If I look back, most of the world seems similar. I would like to understand what drastic changes occurred in the last decade.
No 303 redirect:

https://cc.bingj.com/cache.aspx?d=4924167541825165&w=mVT-1Kc...
Hey! Essay author here.

>The cool thing about using modern LLMs as an eval/policy model is that their RLHF propagates throughout the search.

>Moreover, if search techniques work on the token level (likely), their thoughts are perfectly interpretable.

I suspect a search world is substantially more alignment-friendly than a large model world.
Let me know your thoughts!
That's fair.. Google does have BeyondCorp but that's not standard in Workspace.. So it's not a packaged deal.
That’s not your problem. That’s your employer’s problem.
But market did not reject it - the OS and corresponding copilot devices literally hasn't launched yet.
Better-but still slow. It gets faster overtime as you build trust and more peers connect to you. But it is tolerable on startup for a "I'm bored, lets look at crazy" session.
while I agree we are in a bubble within a bubble I do not think the future is as rosy. We might have better graphics, more content, faster internet but hardly Jetson-esque/Fifth-element world.

All in all looking at the technological innovations of the past century, I can't help but feel the technological novelty of previous growth spurts are just not achievable anymore.

More importantly, we cannot go one day without being told what a happy and advanced wonderful western enlightened era given us: a technological cargo cult with a global serfdom ready to manifest old powers.
> Interesting. I didn't know that. Do you do the conversion in your head, like 2 blocks = 160*2 meters, when someone use blocks in a conversation ? Just curious.

I do it explicitly some times, but mainly I do 2 blocks -> 5 minutes of walking.

It's also useful to think in blocks because addresses here (and in many places in the US) go up/down by 100 for each block; so if I'm going from 12XX to 7XX (colloquially "The 1200 block to the 700 block") that's 5 blocks.

> also ... LOOK everyone I found an American who uses metric system as first choice in their post!!!

Meters are better than feet in every way even if you use miles for long distances. There are 5280 feet in a mile, but 1600 meters in a mile[1]. One of these numbers is far easier to deal with.

As an aside, I wonder about using centimeters for height; In the US, if you look at a bell-curve for "self reported height of men" you see a drop off just below 6' (~183cm) and a huge spike at 6', distorting the curve[2]. Do you see similar distortions at 180 or 175cm in countries where the metric system is used? Given that far more men are "almost" 180cm or 175cm (in the US, 175 is average) are there more men "rounding up" on their heights in such places?

Athletes, in particular, are incentivized to round-up, as scouts won't even look at you if you are "too short" and scouts like to use even numbers for cutoffs.

1: Technically 1609, but that makes an eighth of a mile estimate off by only about a meter, and the "mile run" event in US high-school track is actually 1600 meters.

2: The center of the bell-curve is also 2-3cm taller than measured heights of men in the US.
Those many months and bad experiences won’t matter if you are dead.

And if it doesn’t look like a life-or-death situation, then you can come back later to retrieve the luggage. There is absolutely no reason to carry it during an emergency, period.
Pruning isn't quite as easy as you make it sound. There are lots of famous examples where chess engines misevaluate a position because they prune out apparently losing moves that are actually winning.

Eg https://youtu.be/TtJeE0Th7rk?si=KVAZufm8QnSW8zQo
Yeah the boring answer is the right answer. It’s very clear to see the benefits and I think we’re only going to see more use cases emerge outside of the immediately obvious like a coding copilot. That said, there’s clearly industries where it won’t stick or be too cost prohibitive to implement.

My most “bold” take is that it’s going to end up as a loss leader consolidated at big companies. It’s much too expensive to run at scale and we will see a ton of companies dry up who can’t monetize it. I think we’ll see a general inability to monetize it even at the enterprise level.
Have you tried writing code or a paper that’s actually factual with ChatGPT? They are so obviously wrong in many cases that it’s often a hindrance rather than helpful when I’ve tried to use it.

I do love using ChatGPT for fun stuff like “write me a recipe for enchiladas that’s also a country western song.” My kids and I find it hilarious.
@sneak, can you comment on your experience with nebula vs Tailscale?
You’re right that it’s a Google replacement, but it’s not much more than that.
How valuable? I'll give you a hint: It's so valuable that, for some companies, it's the ONLY thing they sell... and they are worth billions of dollars. You may have heard of one or two of them. :-/
How to Cut an Onion
I think Free Will must be understood from the point of an actor who is trying to influence other actors. How will the actor we are trying to influence react? WE cannot force their reaction. Therefore from our point of view they have free will. We cannot control their will. Whereas, if they were puppets we could control their behavior to a large degree.

This has to do with the point about agency in the article. Everything in your "light-cone" can and will affect what decisions you make. But there are so many butterflies in your light-cone that you cannot say any one of them (alone) decides what your decision is. They cannot force your decisions and thus you have free will. No other actor can control your decisions. You are free of their will, thus your will is free of their will. Thus you have "free will".
> Overhyped and likely to lead to disappointment in the near future.

Define near future here.

I think we could look back in 3 or 4 years and say that Nvidia overplayed it's hand back here in 2024 by trying to extract too many $$$ from the market and thus attracting lots of other players in to try to get a piece of the action. Certainly there are a lot of big players trying to bypass the Nvidia tax: Meta, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Intel are all working on their own AI accelerators (Google's TPU has been around for almost 10 years now). CUDA is Nvidia's market moat because most ML/AI code relies on it. But if some other player can come in and undercut Nvidia's prices by a significant amount while offering a workable software stack that could be really compelling - the market seems to really be wanting something like that.
> Either we all need to be willing to pay more in exchange for "premier" support being available or we need to be ok with companies trying to cut down the support load.

Third option: if you can't afford to provide human support then you don't deserve to be a business.

Too expensive to provide support? Then raise your prices. If your customers leave then your product isn't viable.
https://www.nytimes.com/article/how-to-cut-onion.html?unlock...
Agreed. It's a numerical error that only affects accuracy, but not a serious glitch, like the Pac-man Kill Screen Bug, not exploitable (to cheat/get resources/lives, like reaching 990,000 points in Defender), and not an Easter egg.

See e.g. Glitchipedia: https://errors.fandom.com/wiki/Glitchipedia:About
Sounds like a toxic work environment and at an excessive commute. Perhaps it would be best to distance yourself from it. As several other HNers have noted, make sure you leave on the best possible terms for yourself. Being forced to resign is a sign that they know that they are in the wrong. Typically when on probation dismissal is not an issue, so why the manipulations? Seems like there is more to the situation than you able to determine. The "personality conflict" is strong hint.
a) lack of shipping resources, electricity, etc
b) which people are reluctant to waste on something that will instantly be a visible target and probably last about five minutes
c) Musk is on Netanyahu's side https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/28/elon-musks-israel-...
> "Pumping CO2 into the atmosphere would then be the best thing to do to stave off this scenario."

which makes for a very convenient distraction/talking point of climate-focused science deniers. I am no expert, but every time I have checked into one of those supposed impending Grand Solar Minimum predictions (that will cause some sort of climate crisis), it has been pure pseudo-science with no legitimate or rational theoretical basis.
It was an interesting job. Things were evolving fast and the Internet had only really just gone mainstream. Also lots of small companies rather just just Telcos. Some wild West stuff like the time our CEO came in and demanded we block another company because the other companies CEO had pissed him off.

Back then we were still running things ourselves like Email, Usenet, customer Homepages, FTP servers, Software mirrors. The technologies were also a bit weird, we had Satellite Internet and sold customers a cards and a dish to use it. We also used the same tech from broadcast towers in cities.

We even used Satellite to move our own data (one way) because it was cheaper than undersea cables for a while.
WWU, UW, CWU, and WSU are all on the national radar in anthro for one reason or another. WWU and UW have been CS draws for the past three decades at least. I think they all have top Ed programs.
I’m a fan of Vice Grip Garage for the everyday person. He routinely arrives to a broken down vehicle, performs on-site diagnostics and repairs, and then attempts to drive the vehicle 600+ miles back to his workshop. He has a hilarious wit and is quite knowledgeable, and he doesn’t really use fancy tools, techniques, or terminology, so it’s quite approachable and understandable for non-experts.

https://www.youtube.com/@vicegripgarage
Using tailscale might be a better and easier solution.
No, but Google will find and spider the URLs found from at least two sources:

1) Users may (inevitably will) share links to the URLs on social media / wherever, and Googlebot et al will find those links and spider them.

2) The URLs will be sent to Google for any Chrome user with "Make searches & browsing better" setting enabled.

https://support.google.com/chrome/answer/13844634?#make_sear...
Maybe wait until you get an actual offer somewhere else.

Just treat it like any other time you would leave any other role.

If you wouldn’t normally casually resign without an actual written offer to go somewhere else, don’t.
When I was there the Seattle Angel community was deeply broken.

Seattle Angels thought they had this great tight-knit community with lots of events, but every Angel was secretly terrified to pass on any founders they met to any other Angels, not because the other Angel would steal them but because the other Angel might think the startup was stupid and lose respect for the Angel.

Go down the coast to Silicon Valley and angels made handoffs constantly ("you're doing biotech, I don't know anything about biotech, let me connect you to my buddy who does biotech investing"). None of that happened in Seattle.

The end result is valley angels got tons of dealflow that steadily walked deals towards the right investors. Seattle angels got no deal flow and Seattle founders spent all their time pitching people who were not good fits while valley founders quickly found the right investors to pitch.

Every recently funded seattle founder I knew or met told me the exact same thing when I was doing a startup there "I understand why you're trying to raise here in Seattle, we felt the same way, I wish we'd gone to the valley sooner." Every single one said that.

It was a lot like the term the "Seattle Freeze" that people used to use to talk about the dating market there. Everyone is super friendly and it's very easy to get the first conversation, but after that everything freezes and nothing advances the way it does in other cities, plus most of the angels were from huge companies and had no idea what was actually involved in starting a company.

When I was there, most angels also perceived the seattle venture market to be broken and much too small, so angels told startups we won't invest unless you can show us you won't ever need additional capital after this raise because we don't believe seattle companies can raise VC capital (yes, I heard that exact statement from multiple angels). That attitude, unsurprisingly, was highly contributory to their being no startups that were interesting to VC's, guaranteeing seattle companies weren't getting VC funding, because those angels expected you to get to hugely profitable valuations on $1.5MM of Angel funding, period. There are businesses that can do that, but they are lifestyle businesses not venture businesses.

Anyway, I'm mostly surprised Seattle has ranked as high as it has for as long as it has.
Seems like you have to be a real moonhead to appreciate this event.
I think your options are a bit of a false choice. The .com bubble was a bubble, but many of the ideas from that era also ended up being successful businesses eventually. Sometimes the market gets out in front of the value - it is accurate in assessing the potential of a technology and wrong about assessing the rate of adoption or who the winners will be.

I'm using AI today to generate real business value in a couple of different industries but also feel that it is simultaneously overhyped for today and underhyped for the future. If the question is just "is it a bubble" the answer is obviously yes, it will come back down. But, how far is down and how long will it take for the world to catch up to the market? Maybe not that long.
They were, at the time.
We Have a Housing Crisis
I like using local LLMs via SillyTavern for roleplaying, which is fun, but is not going to be a source of revenue for anyone.
The "search" process for your brain structure took 13 billion years and 20 orders of magnitude more computation than we will ever harness.
For layman explanation it was just discussed it on StarTalk just a few days ago https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lty_55JbkmE
None of the above: I think that AI is hyped, but I think the wrong things are hyped and that it will bring value.
Archaeologists unearth mystery stone building on site of new Crete airport
I think people mix up "Improper/indecent/harmful/... uses of AI" with "Troubles made by AI". If we exclude my usage of Copilot in VsCode, my most common exposure to AI is one of my colleagues polluting every slack thread with a low effort, low quality content from ChatGPT that he's most probably not even read once.

But Copilot has revolutionized my coding. I have to code in many languages on a daily basis: Typescript, tsx, Css, Html, Dart, config files (like docker[compose], k8s, Ansible, json configs), c#, python. I'm only fluent in c# and ts. The fact that I do not need to remember the syntax for all the other is a big game changer. I was able to be immediately productive in a new language/framework after reading the documents. Previously it took some time before I ramped up, and then it would be lost after some inactivity. I'm not talking about important concepts, or CS fundamentals. I'm talking about specific ways things can be done in each language/framework. Copilot makes me 1000x more productive in this part. I'm still limited by my mental bandwidth, so I'm probably 2x more productive on an average day.

I also use ChatGPT, and run some models locally just to play with them, but all happen much less frequently than my colleague disrupting discussions with ChatGPT content.
The only thing I'm unsure about is when to short nvidia.