1. Operating costs.

Operating costs for nuclear power plants are low and consistent over time. The bulk of the cost is the initial investment, and of that the bulk is financing, i.e. interest.

https://endexiresearch.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2020...

This has a graph of operating costs for French nuclear plants over time on page 10. After an initial high cost of 40 centimes / kWh it settles down to slightly above 10 centimes / kWh in around 1984 and then stays flat until 2000, where the graph ends. Let's call that 12 centimes. The French franc was converted to € at a rate of 6.55 : 1 so that's slightly less than 2 euro-cents per kWh.

2. Capacity factors

Current French nuclear plants are old designs and there was significant overbuild. Modern plants easily hit > 90% capacity factors, heck, the EPR even has 4 independent cooling systems so that they can keep the plant running while doing maintenance on the cooling system! Alas, that's one of the reasons it is so difficult to build.

For the US: "Nuclear has the highest capacity factor of any other energy source—producing reliable, carbon-free power more than 92% of the time in 2021."

https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity

In Germany, it was 93% IIRC before it went to 0% due to government action.

"In 2019, the global median capacity factor was 85.9 %, in line with the load factor in recent years."

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iaea-releases-2019-data...

France is also adding renewables so the nuclear plants don't have to buffer all the variability in demand. Right now they have nuclear plants that they just shut down on weekends.

So let's low-ball this and say the capacity factor of these new plants will only be 80%. How much does this affect the calculations?

1.5 * 24 * 365 * 0.8 * 80 = 840960

So instead of producing 946 TWh over its lifetime, the plant will produce 840 TWh or 840 billion kWh. That doesn't really affect the calculations much. At 1 cent / kWh that's € 8.4 billion, which is still pretty close to the construction costs. At 2 cents / kWh we are looking at € 16.8 billion. Add another 2 cents for operating costs and we are at a total of 4 cents / kWh.

4 cents / kWh.

Now this is obviously not a perfect calculation, if such a thing can even be made. But it is very much in the right ballpark.

The claims of 20 cents / kWh or more by anti-nuclear lobbyists are not in the right ballpark. And unsurprisingly, their source for those kinds of numbers is "trust me, bro". Or Lazard, which is arguably worse than "trust me, bro".

3. Lifetime

Yes, I believe 80 years is extremely realistic, particularly for these newer reactors that were specifically designed for long operation, with lessons learned from older designs. Probably more of a lower bound than an upper bound.

"There are no technical barriers to running some nuclear plants for up to 80 years, ..."

"There are two research programs addressing the five main challenges to long-term operation: primary system metals and piping; concrete and containment structures; electrical cables; reactor pressure vessel and buried piping. “These programs have not uncovered any technical show-stoppers that would prevent the renewal of licenses from 60 to 80 years,” the study authors wrote, adding that more research is needed."

https://spectrum.ieee.org/aps-argues-to-extend-lifespan-of-n...

"Research demonstrates no technical limits for reactors operating up to 80 years."

https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/whats-lifespan-nuclear-re...

"A handful of reactors have already been approved to operate for a total of 80 years,..."

https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/04/04/1090630/old-nucl...

"... a majority of executives say that it is very likely their plants will operate for 80 years or longer. It is a fairly natural progression, according to Was.

"If they last till 60, maybe they can last to 80," Was said. "Heck, maybe 100?"

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/nuclear-power-pla...

As an example, the AP-1000, which is a peer to the EPR/EPR2 designs is specifically touted as having an 80 year lifetime.

"Nuclear energy is emission free, and the new units are expected to provide reliable power throughout the region for the next 60-80 years. "

https://info.westinghousenuclear.com/news/westinghouse-celeb...

"...with a plant lifetime that can be readily extended to 80 years and beyond."

http://canes.mit.edu/overnight-capital-cost-next-ap1000