skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> - Peak baby - 2013. [2]

I think your source's claim that "The planet will never see more babies than it has in 2013" is open to question.

To just use the US as an example: mainstream Americans have a declining fertility rate, and we have no reason to think that is going to reverse in the foreseeable future. Immigrants have higher fertility, but they tend to converge to the mainstream after a generation or two. So, that seems to support the article's contention, at least for the US – and if we look at other countries, we observe things are broadly similar, so that in turn supports that contention for the planet as a whole.

However, we also observe in the US small, ultra-conservative religious minorities, such as the Amish and ultra-Orthodox Jews, who still have a high fertility rate, and also have high youth retention (80-90% of their children will stay in the group as adults). Now, even though these groups are a tiny percentage of the population, the miracle of exponential growth means that within 2-3 centuries, they could be the majority of the US population, which could then result in a national baby boom. And, eventually, as they spread across the globe (they exist to varying degrees in other countries too), a global baby boom. So 2013's "peak baby" may end up being surpassed.

Of course, there is no guarantee that is going to happen – maybe they'll get to a certain size, and then they'll stop growing. And of course, it is physically impossible to sustain exponential growth indefinitely. However, it remains a possible future that they won't stop growing until after they've gotten so big that 2013 turns out not to be the year of "peak baby" after all. Maybe it will actually be 2213 or 2313 instead. Our descendants (if one happens to have them) will find out.
Many artists now view the tech industry as a credible threat to their work and livelihood, because of AI. If you want them to buy your products, it’s probably a good idea to show some sensitivity to that concern.
> Logic doesn't really have a direction, it works backwards or forwards.

Implication is one of the primitives in logic, and gives us several of the classic logical fallacies: affirming the consequent, denying the antecedent, fallacy of the converse, and fallacy of the inverse.

All of which are examples of trying to work logic as though it doesn't have a direction.
That’s a drop in a bucket.
You’re an idiot. If you get Brazilian, Argentine or Paraguayan beef it’s not from the triple frontier where they border each other. Anywhere other than that area are vastly different ecologies. Especially the beef growing areas.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1073718/number-cattle-li...

Where as in Argentina over half the cows are from the pampas not 10%

Go to a restaurant or grocery store and have a steak in each country, they are distinctly different.
I used to listen to the podcast for this site, but the problem is that any time they did a ppdcast on something I knew anything about, they would get things completely wrong. Not like, autistic special interest level stuff, but very, very basic stuff. If there was a popular misconception around, they would repeat it, even if the slightest bit of research would immediately dismantle it.

After that happened about 3 times I realised that their material was useless for things I knew anything about, and less than useless for anything I knew nothing about.
During my elementary school days, we were told by our English teacher that the origin was related to death toll reporting after a battle (presumably involving the Brits or Americans). Therefore, "0 K" would indicate that no soldiers were killed - an OK outcome. This went on to live in my head rent-free until today.
Moon landing conspiracy theorists will tell you it was too hard to paint a realistic sky on a sound stage in 1969 so all the moon landing footage has a black sky instead. Bogus. Thanks to this article we know we had planetariums as early as 1925. The moon landing is real
Scientific progress is slowing down. But why?
Wow, seeing peak baby is a little scary honestly. I had always thought that low birth rates were a problem for only countries like Germany, Spain, Japan, etc. (at least for the time being).

Seeing countries like India even out (and even going under replacement rate) gives me some heavy pessimism about population graying. I had always thought that heavy swingers like them would carry on the whole growing population thing for a good few more decades.

Looks like we're more or less on a crash course in the next few decades, especially with lifespans moving as they are.
OK, but I don’t think tech progress = dead ecosystem.

In fact, newer tech tends to be cleaner. We use less land than we would’ve using 1800’s farming techniques, for instance. Nuclear is cleaner than coal.

Also, everybody having more money is a huge help for the environment. Compare the size of the green movements between say, Sweden and the DRC.

Yes, more money = more consumption, but it also means we can do innovative things in a better way.

In this particular case, surely extra-planetary infrastructure is better than millions of miles of ditches with lead cables in them.

Either way, our current state of development isn’t sustainable. It has to be millions of times smaller, or an unknown amount larger. I vote for more tech.
I didn't think the OP used LLMs? They did use a BERT based sentiment classifier but that's not an LLM.

My HN recommender works fine just using decision trees and XGBoost FWIW. I'll bet SVM would work great too.
And for block writes!

The Nagler turns a series of 4KB pages over TCP into a stream of MTU sized packets, rather than a short packet aligned to the end of each page.
Crossing my fingers that we've also hit "peak extinction", and not just because we've killed off most of the vulnerable species already.
Humans can learn to recognise new sensory modalities, too (see paragraph 4 of doi:10.3389/fnhum.2019.00443's introduction) – but only if there's hardware that responds to them. The question is whether the visual cortex is capable of making the distinctions.

If colourblindness glasses (e.g. EnChroma®) work for you, then I suppose the answer is trivially "yes, because it already does" – and we should expect gene therapy to be useful. If there are people for whom those glasses don't do anything at all, I'd be more cautious.
There are extremely effective techniques, but it is not really solved. The current techniques still require human proofreading to correct errors. Only a fraction of this particular dataset is proofread.
What am I missing? Assuming exponential growth in capability, that actually sounds very on track. If we can get from 1 cubic millimeter to a whole mouse brain in 5-10 years, why should it take more than a few extra years to scale that to a human brain?
The problem is it never just stops at terrorists.

See also: The US spying on every citizen, and international communication, in the name of maybe they'll find a terrorist in there somewhere.
I'd rather have portable TCP_CORK
Who is to say children today will have children of their own tomorrow? People who are choosing not to have kids “leaving the gene pool” (you say it as if they are some filth to be done away with) doesn’t change anything.
Neither of your sources talk about the claims I referenced.
No one will see this because I'm shadowbanned but I've always been confused about exponential vs logarithmic. In the authors example about the ruler i'd have thought this was an example of exponential scale in play.
I wonder if it could be made practical to have a radio interferometer made up of several spacecraft flying in various directions.
I was blown away when I first saw the video, but he's completely reckless.

This Reddit thread has some interesting insight into just how dangerous it could have been: https://www.reddit.com/r/videos/comments/7x8x3q/dude_uses_ho...
Oh hey! It’s been a while how’re you?!
That's definitely true, but also I don't understand why people want to drink _straight_ from the tap? I mean, don't people have simple water filters at home? These filters are effective for bacteria and heavy metals. It's common in my country even though we have good quality water from the tap.
My reddit comment in /r/uk resulted in my 12 year account banned because it didn't comply with a UK mods viewpoint.

The comment may of been slightly off-the-cuff but for sure didn't incite "violence". This resulted in getting banned by Reddit admins and I've never been back on Reddit since.

After the shock wears off you realise that you really you don't miss reddit.
So, let's reverse this. A Japanese company's online advertisement offends some American sensibilities (not a stretch to imagine). So a few hundred Americans comment on the video and on Twitter.

Would that deserve a news article and a statement from the company?
Smoke signals
If the future is agrarian, extremely-religious people living a very low-productivity lifestyle of essentially subsistence farming, then that’s probably actually a nice balance for the Earth and humanity. However it really doesn’t feel like that’s where things are headed in spite of the current demographic trends you note. In a sense, I think that’s the way the Americas were before Columbus re-united them with the old world.
If you don’t reproduce then your genes are not passed on. You have self-selected not to be part of the human race any longer.

My hunch is that the people who still decide to reproduce, despite all the reasons people who advocate for not having children talk about, likely have some sort of genetic predisposition for reproduction - a strong innate need.

After all the non-breeders die off, the future belongs to the reproducers.
>Where is the line between "gene therapy" to eliminate differences (such as deafness) and eugenics? If we have statistics that taller people have better outcomes in life, should we do gene therapy to make sure everyone is taller than 6'?

There may be benefits of being 6' over 5' but I dont think that's comparable to deafness.

6' vs 5' is the difference between great hearing and good hearing.

The deafness we are talking about is the difference between having legs and not having legs.
but epstein was in charge of the entertainment
> Bond says the store is launching on the web, versus an app, so it’s “accessible across all devices, all countries, no matter what, independent of the policies of closed ecosystem stores.”

It's been a while since Ive owned Apple stuff, so this may be a dumb question. How would this work for installing on iOS/iPadOS? Can anyone sideload now?

I thought Apple was pretty locked down on what users can install, well, outside of the new EU rules.
We don’t know what “understanding” means (we don’t have a workable definition of it), so your question cannot be answered.
Wow, thanks for the context!

> was convicted on charges of attempting to carry out a bombing on the 14th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.

That escalated quickly...
This! Ive been a ‘founding team’ member multiple times where the only real benefit was hard work, and the ability to influence/control those early and crucial engineering decisions, oh and a paycheque. Share was always low or minimal.
> Also the groups that have many kids (the Amish have 7 children on average, and you also have Mormons and Orthodox Jews) will expand exponentially

I agree with your overall point, and about the Amish and Orthodox Jews (especially the ultra-Orthodox, Hasidic/Haredi).

However, for Mormons, I'm not sure that is true. Mormons, in the US at least, have plummeting fertility rates, and also a lot of problems with retaining their younger members. They don't belong to the same category as Amish and ultra-Orthodox do, they are converging to the American secular mainstream while those groups remain on a clearly different trajectory from it.
CS388: Natural Language Processing
Ahhh so this is openais monetization strategy. Making a search engine and putting ads on it.

Right now id says t's going to fail. Not only are they not better than Google by enough, id say they're worse. This could change, but I think the "ai" aspect detracts from being a good search engine.
The largest filled-aperture radio telescope in the world has a 500-meter diameter, and reportedly only cost $180 million. For comparison, the International Space Station costs $3 billion per year just to operate. Doing stuff in space is expensive.
Neom: Saudi forces 'told to kill' to clear land for eco-city
XDR was already a core part of NFS. And then there was a DEC alternative also.
Ex-Twitter would be more ironic.
There are many solutions. You are looking at route planning eventually traveling salesman and more (time+distance matrix, etc.etc.)

https://www.routific.com/

https://www.graphhopper.com/open-source/

https://mapsplatform.google.com/maps-products/routes/

https://valhalla.github.io/valhalla/
It’s also possible that secular society creates effective off-ramps to convert the hyper-religious to secular values. I’m uncertain if this will work given how successful the in-group remains despite the internet and modern social media.
If we forget how the current system is architected, we are looking at two problems: First problem is that Linux capabilities are also dealing with isolating processes so they have limited capabilities because the user based isolation is not enough. Second problem is that local identity has no relation to the cloud identity which is undesirable. If we remove user based authentication and rely on capabilities only with identity served by cloud or kubernetes, it could be a simpler way to do authenticating and authorization
I am not sure. I think on the premium end, no one will want to risk Amazon knock-offs, brick-filled boxes, and other shenanigans. There was a day not long ago where everything premium I bought came from Amazon because I trusted them. That day is long gone.

On the low-end, I actually don't get how sellers stay in business with Amazon fees, but for the most part, my go-to is increasingly direct (Aliexpress, eBay, or similar).

I'm down to about two Amazon orders per month. That's down from several orders a week a half-decade ago. It's also a bit of an increasing death spiral, since I gave up Prime and Amazon is now just annoying without Prime.

I do feel there is room for a vendor to take Amazon's place. The next one should have:

- 100% direct supply chains. No knockoffs. If I order Sandisk, it either comes form Sandisk, or from Sandisk direct to the vendor.

- 2019-era Amazon customer service

- Fair prices. Fair doesn't mean beating Amazon and Walmart (customer service costs something), but that I never get hit with a 10x markup. I should be able to trust I'm not being cheated without shopping around.

- Honest reviews

- Ideally, over time, shoppers, vendor-recommended products, and expert reviews. Trader Joes and Apple to well by virtue of fewer, better SKUs. Buying dpreview could have been a great fit for Amazon, but as is, building out something like the old Wirecutter, Consumer Reports, etc.

- I can even see more social models, like forums with company reps, experts, etc. where I can ask a question before I buy.

The logistics here are a multi-billion-dollar play, but might be possible either leveraging local stores or in partnership with a Fedex or UPS.
Yes, my example can be framed in terms of deterrence. However, I think punishment can fill many purposes.

Retribution is largely in the eyes of victim, so the need is subjective and depends on their emotional desire for revenge. I'm not convinced that victims will be emotionally satisfied with the explanation of causal chain that goes back to the big bang.

To be honest, I dont really understand how the concept of restitution differs from deterrence and retribution. the cost is a deterrent, and paying it to the victim partially mitigates the desire for revenge.

I posted this elsewhere in this thread, but I think free will is entirely irrelevant to assessments of responsibility, fault, and culpability. Why should it matter if someone is a robot with bad programing, or a puppet animated with a bad spirit. In both case, they a black box which took an action in a given situation.

It seems like the game theory, emotion, and economics around punishment is the same in either case.

Maybe I simply understand the argument/theory why free will is a justification for harsher/additional punishment in the first place.
Still no go.

Can you make a sentence like "Microsoft will ..." or "a problem is that ..." or something?
Haha I just basically wrote the same thing. I'm not the only one then.
Elixir does this with Task.async_stream.

https://hexdocs.pm/elixir/Task.html#async_stream/3
On their servers, as is their right.
Design team for startups scaling fast
We are launching also on product hunt
https://www.producthunt.com/posts/myte-design

coupom HACKERNEWS
1500€ off
Do you have a preferred message protocol?
Too early to tell. Wait a couple more generations.
Dirt works fine for shielding, when you live on a planet whose soil is already toxic to life. And yes Mars is radioactive, because it has no magnetosphere. Especially when there is a solar flare.
There are many other criticisms in the Reception section such as the below excerpt which is a good summary of how I felt about what I read of the book.

> The historian David A. Bell, responding solely to Graeber and Wengrow's arguments about the Indigenous origins of Enlightenment thought and Jean-Jacques Rousseau, accused the authors of coming "perilously close to scholarly malpractice."

They are real scholars but also trying to use their reputation to sling a narrative to sell a book for the masses. I don’t care that some of their Ivy League/anthropology buddies said it was a breath of fresh air, what I read and researched myself said it was a good amount of hot air.
Sophons.

Seriously though, Sabine, who I like and watch a lot, has bias for hard physics, which has been in a 50 year or so doldrums.

Take chemistry, which when I was a kid had 3 states, solid, liquid and gas. Then in high school I learned about #4, plasma. I don't even know how many there are now, 8 or 9?
The Deaf (capital D) community has its own special language. There's a lot of culture that comes out of that. On the other hand, the blind community has the same languages as the rest of us.
Masterclass with Steve Albini
First 10 minutes are quite interesting. Analog vs digital, longevity of music, “open” formats.
I don’t know what’s relaxing about a slow commute, unless the trip is getting in a train. Perhaps I come from a place where the train is a utility and not something “weird” one fetishizes as a vacation. I don’t mean this in any negative way whatsoever and I don’t intend this to sound like I’m gate keeping train usage (but I know it may sound like I that).

All this to say, I want to get on the train to get somewhere, not to “experience the train”. Until the train operates as such, regular passengers are not going to choose it.
From my perspective, the only reason they are resistant to societal factors that drive people to have less kids is that their strong religious values (which are held together by their strong communities). So this really begs the question of what society will look like if the only people who will be breeding in the future are those who form tight communities that promote relatively religiously extreme values (that happen to include having lots of children).
Can this treatment be used to treat other diseases? Say for example, people without a functional immune system?
omg. I wish we had a channel like that 10 years ago when I had free time.
To clarify the article. This isn't peak CO2. It isn't even peak pollution. It's peak first derivative of pollution ex. greenhouse gases. We'll get to peak CO2 when emissions of CO2 are net zero, so in a few decades at best. Until then atmospheric carbon and average temperatures will keep rising.
I feel like Elixir has a split personality: on the one hand you have libraries for anybody to use out-of-the-box with their specialty syntax and all (Phoenix, et. al.) but on the other hand Erlang/BEAM are heavy-weight backend development tools, things that I would imagine most people do not want to or would not get into. This came up on Elixir Reddit the other day, somebody was lamenting how their job uses Elixir, but a handful of libraries without getting into the OTP weeds, and the replies were: "why do you care if it works?". But I understand where the poster came from, I do not particularly care for Phoenix or Liveview, they are tangentially related to what I would like to do with the language, which is write robust backend services with minimal technical overhead. I am sure Phoenix is nice but and I hope to use it one day but it is not the selling point to me.
Regarding the risk, as noted in the article, they are manually “proofreading” the construction.
Wouldn't reducing suffering to nil be a worthy goal? Is there any reason we shouldn't pursue this to its end?
Rust is a solid lang but wider adoption will always be kneecapped by its syntax imo.
Yes, I’m specifically targeting Zephyr. It’s actually less of an ESP32 thing and more of a Zephyr thing, I just happened to have an ESP32 LyraT Mini kicking around to do the project with.

And in general the Arduino/Platformio ecosystem causes me to break out into hives…
1 watt is exactly what I am saying is almost inconsequential. People leave charger bricks plugged in all day and the lights on.
> To re-word everyone else's comments - "Disconnected" is not well-defined in any network.

Parent said disconnected pipe, not network. It's sufficiently well-definable there.
I read it as a teenager and remember enjoying it. It popped up on Libby a few weeks ago and I checked it out and absolutely hated it. Found it nigh unreadable. Hackneyed prose and all the bits about the robotic animals just seemed clumsy and dumb. In my opinion, the book has not aged well.
I couldn't help but notice that Hy is on the map but Clojure isn't.

Am I out of touch?

https://hylang.org
Not just in terms of selecting genes, but also selecting cultures.

If allele A causes increased desire to reproduce than allele B, then in a society in which reproduction is viewed as an optional extra, all else being equal, allele A is likely to predominate allele B over time. Conversely, in a more traditional society in which everyone is subject to a strong social expectation to reproduce, allele A would have far less of an advantage over allele B.

An allele might lead to increased reproduction indirectly rather than directly. For example, if an allele makes a person more likely to be religious, and if religious people are more likely to have kids, then even though that allele does not directly impact desire to reproduce, it may be selected for due to its indirect impact on reproduction.

That's genetics; coming to culture: if subculture A puts higher emphasis on reproduction than subculture B, then all else being equal, in the long-run subculture A is likely to outnumber subculture B, irrespective of any genetic factors. However, defections from subculture A to subculture B may erase much of its innate demographic advantage. This suggests in the long-run, the most demographically successful subcultures will be those which combine sustained high fertility with sustained insularity (social barriers to defection to other subcultures)–which is exactly what we observe with groups like the Amish and ultra-Orthodox Jews.
I assure you that a wet towel is nothing like immersion. Immersion has significant pressure differentials, which is why IP ratings factor time as well.

If you don't believe me, wipe your computer down with a wet towel. Still works right?

Now submerge it, even briefly, and observe its functioning.
As an avid crocheter I'm not sure what's wrong with that syntax. How else would one communicate the same information inline?
Someone posted the ad in reverse, the implication that the new iPad could unleash creatively instead of crushing it.

https://9to5mac.com/2024/05/09/ipad-pro-ad-backwards/