> The US doesn't want to start a war with China. The US wants to prevent China's rise. It wants to do this as cheaply and as efficiently as possible, and if it could do it by a cheap cyberop/magic-wand/whathaveyou it would. However it has coarse tools to affect this and no easy, cheap answers.

The US wants to prevent China's rise to global hegemon status. It has no problem with China growing in general.

> And its willing to do it expensive ways (war) if need be.

"If need be" being China starts a conflict with it's neighbors who have asked the US for help. The US will not launch missiles at China if their GDP grows too high or the BRI grows larger.

> It therefore has an array of economic, diplomatic, military, and intelligence tracks attempting to prevent China's rise and raise its costs in a myriad of ways. These all create instability and risk war.

No, the country causing instability here is the one launching missiles into the Taiwan Strait (which was happening long before the "Pivot to East Asia"), salami slicing territory, attacking vessels in the South China sea, and starting border skirmishes with India. US diplomacy and military deterrence aren't causing instability, they are holding it back.

> The US is, in its attempt to prevent the rise of China, and China in its attempt to continue to grow in power, in a Thucydides Trap - where conflict between them grows. China - in its role is attempting to grow does so by attempting to minimize the amount of tension and risk of conflict with the United States. Because strategically, that's its win condition. It grows.

Wrong. If China wanted to minimize risk of conflict with the US, it would cease stealing US IP and military secrets (again, started happening before "Pivot to East Asia"), operating unofficial police stations on US soil, hacking into US companies and infrastructure, etc. China wants to keep tensions just below the threshold that would trigger a serious conflict while antagonizing the US in ways that help it grow.

> The US on the other hand, is attempting to increase as much tension and conflict as it can with China, in order to problematize its rise. This may lead to a war (the "trap" in Thucydides Trap), but it is not inevitable. I'll just repeat one example from earlier. Before the US was attempting to prevent China's rise, it's policy with regard to Taiwan was to prevent Taiwan from declaring independence and prevent mainland from attempting to annex.

> Once the US's policy became preventing China's rise, it's policy toward Taiwan has been to claim that it will defend Taiwan. The reason for this policy is to encourage Taiwan to declare independence, and to make China worry about this possibility, and encouraging it to attempt to act before it becomes too late. The US is succeeding in this policy of destabilizing the region.

This is why I dismissed the earlier post as a gish gallop, because it was full of subtly wrong things like this that I didn't want to spend time debunking. The US policy is still strategic ambiguity. Biden has made multiple remarks that the US would defend Taiwan, but they've always been walked back by the White House. Bush made similar remarks in 2000 and 2001, before the "Pivot to East Asia", and they were also walked back. The US still abides by the 45 year old Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances. Meanwhile, China decides to surround the island with warships and conduct live-fire exercises because a single US representative visits. Who is the one destabilizing the region again?

I see no reason for this conversation to continue any further at this point. Bye.