>GDP impact

RE impact is 2-3%, which is what you get when RE demand gets crushed from 15T to 12T in a 100T (RMB) economy. That's it, the sum of PRC RE house of card "collapse" inefficiency is 3%, aka how PRC growth goes from wreckless 8% to fine/good 5%. PRC luxury spending up 12% last year vs 7% for US. Grocery chains are fine, some Carrefour leaving, but as if PRC relies on western grocery chains. Disposable income up 6% nominal, while inflation negligible. Supply chain was reorienting to PRC+1 pre covid, meanwhile PRC during covid exports increased 1T in 3 years, more than previous 10 years combined. Held on to most of gains / wasn't hit as hard by export decline vs others in last few years. Q1 exports up, PMI positive. It's fine. Closer to home supplies chains, i.e. Mexico has large % of transtripped PRC exports to evade tarrifs.

>decades

No really, big fund semi push only in last 10 years, build uncoordinated base, but lots of players for entire chain. 7nm yields are fine according to forensics extrapolating from quality of production. Production only one component of price, PRC not paying IP fees for domestic chips to west/US = it's economical to produce domestically even with lower yield. EUV/SSMB 5-10 years away. Questionable if <5nm has any major benefits vs PRC brute force computing and making up operation costs on the power end with massive renewable rollouts.

>youth, tech

You need to follow space more closely if you don't know about new youth unemployment data. Ditto with tech sector, especially hard tech hiring and compensation.

>tech decline

Every S&T, R&D, innovation index/ranking and reality of PRC moving up supply chain in just about every sector in last 10 years contradicts this. PRC went from like 10m STEM in 2000s/ high skill talent to 40m matching US, most in the last 10 years, and that's translating to PRC moving up tech in every sector, not just software which they deliberately slapped so people moved to more strategic sectors. Next 20 years they're adding another 40m+ STEM/high skill to workforce. There's a reason ppl freaking out about PRC EVs, green energy, mature chips - because PRC is encroaching on all the encumbant high tech previously dominated by west, and that's just PRC fucking around for a few years after spamming STEM in from academic reforms ~15 years ago.

>always been the case

PRC talent from west have never returned back to PRC on this scale before. Amount of PRC talent retention and inability for west to brain drain due to domestic opportunities have never been this high.

>stolen IP

Who cares? It's MIC, and huawei leads in 5g / telco which is what it focuses on. Working on filters was contingency post sanctions and they did it in a few years. It's a good example of how fast PRC catches in critical sectors it wants to - timeline for sanctions against PRC is more limited than most hoped - they indigenize fast. This is like people wanking about PRC finally making ballpoint pen tip (which US also can't make), when that was cover for LKQ bemoaning state didn't focus enough on precision manufacturing for advanced munitions. A year later state developed that capability.

>AJ/patriots

Quoting US officials, as if that's AJ position. It's he said she said, of course Kirby wants to play down damage, because in your words, admitting is patriots can get overwhelmed by mach3 duct taped RU missiles is "bad politics". Mobility and ISR goes hand in hand, the point of mobility is to be faster than opponent ISR, to pack up before they can plan mission. Hence RU intel failure + patriot mobility is linked. When RU ISR picked up, patriots started getting hit, of course in transit, pants down because ISR tells you thats best time to strike.

>locked up

You should look up all the CSR reports and think tank analysts who track PRC missile developments. Or former Pac fleet deputy chief Fanell who confirmed tandem PRC hypersonics struck moving ships at sea - they work fine. Like this isn't hard technology for country that has space program.

>we did we can

We already kenw that. Carney used boring old SM2, same as Mason in 2016. We already know SM2 can hit shit tier cruise missiles. Intercepting TLAMs and slower ballistics is not new. What we learned is it's not enough to deter Houthis whose still hitting ships despite USN protection. This isn't patriot test - Lockheed pitched to navy, but not integrated - no one's seen them because they don't exist. Deploying more THAAD/Patriot in MENA is not because they're peak, it's just what US have. BTW same system got overwhelmed by Houthis when they hit Saudi refineries, but we'll just blame Saudi operators because that's convenient.

>rocketforce leadership gone

For corruption, which in PRC =/= RU. Their corruption is graft of contracts not replacing rocket fuel with water or selling tires. The former requires a signiture and gets you a few years in jail, the latter bullet to the head, and for 1/100 the money. If anything PRC corruption is associated with overcapacity, grafting building more hardware. PRC has grown way past RU tech in everything except maybe sub quieting, but anything electronic/higher tech they're better, see PRC modernized flankers. Look up latest airforce university report on rate of PLA rocket force modernization.

>ICMB/MIRV

IMO Glide vehicles that defeats interceptors is more dangerous to carriers, and direction US missile defense/advanced interceptor programs are targetting. MIRVs is fine, but mostly for nukes. Conventional strikes against navy targets going to be just saturating limited local defense / magazine depth. US pours a lot into ship defense, but no indication they work against high end missile threats right now. We're up to FTM48 which hit a couple short range ballistics, but still controlled conditions, no countermeasures etc. Ultimately it doesn't matter how much US spends, amount of VLS cells in a fleet is known/finte and can be weaponeered around to saturate.

>China gets the blockade

China runs the blockade, dares US to do something, with next run on escalation ladder hitting US critical infra. US loses all oil refining capabilities and downstream inputs like fertilizer. US starves by doing somethign stupid like trying to blockade PRC. It's a zero sum game for everyone. Diffrence is PRC actually fought with every NPT nuclear state over issues less important than TW. Including US in Korea when PRC wasn't nuclear power herself. I mean if that's bluster... PRC knows US won't eat nukes for TW... and US won't risk losing her own energy supplies and not eat for TW. Hence blockade won't likely happen because US interest caluclus less suicidal vs adversaries who can strike CONUS at scale. This isn't 2010s when that argument had merit.

>navy has more Tomahawk

No USN has more coutnable VLS, people think US Navy has more Tomahawks, which btw is close to nothing even if 11k VLS cells were loaded for that mission. PRC can produce that in 11 days. 20 days and they have enough to overwhelm entire US security architecture in 1st island chain, most of which will be in range (nearly all of SKR/JP/most of PH from mainland). Ultimately 11k doesn't buy you very far when estimates for just taking out SCS island bases (missile sponges) run into 500+ for just temperoary degrading runways, let alone mainland targets. The fundmental inbalance in theatre is PRC makes more stuff, can hit more stuff, has more stuff to hit and therefore more difficult to proportionally degrade, even if you throw entire USN + get agile basing in region. Ultimately we don't know what we don't know, but we know relative to industrial output, USN can't throw enough at the problem. Like it took 5 carriers + good regional basing 3 weeks to degrade Iraq, scale that up to PRC and that's a 5 year campaign assuming nothing PRC makes work. But if they work advertised (not hard), then 11 carrier groups and 11k VLS cells is defeatable.

Also PRC does their own FTMs, they intercept cruise missiles (easy, known party trick) and balistics themselves. Reality is no one knows PRC missile stocks, because unlike ship/planes they can't be easily counted via imagery. All we know is they just showed an automated factory that can make 1k cruise/TLAM components A DAY. It's trivially easy for PRC to stockpile enough that interception is meaningless due to saturation. And for all we know, they have, because munitions factories aren't sitting idle. Having a 100k cruise missiles lying around is trivial cost. They don't even have to be advanced at that point since quantity > quality of interception. The reality is we don't know how much actual missiles PRC has, only they can make alot, and even most competent western analysts down to estimating launchers/TELs, but that's like counting guns without knowing how man bullets. Rocketforce also barely has to invest any stockpile to TW, airforce and army MLRS has most of the TW distance fires covered. And really it's matter of satuating patriots, again magazine size known quantity, and mop up uncontested.

>can isn't volume

See huawei increasing handset production to the point of eating at Apple share. Techinsights breakdown of SMIC N+2 that suggests decent yield. Now HW also planning to hammer their own AI cards. That's sufficient volume short medium term on ASML. Once they have their own twinscan DUV equivalents they'll hammer 7nm at scale even. Litho 1/3 of production cost when doesn't accoutn for other cost (licensing) etc that PRC will save on by just not using western products. When Nvidia is selling AI chips for 400% markup, there's plenty of room to be profitable at lower yield.

>china state propaganda.

I mean these are western reports on PRC export composition. Trade data/flows has to balance, they know what's coming out of PRC since... it's going into their borders. Steal IP and innovate where they lead isn't mutually exclusive. And per your filters / MEMs example, PRC fine buying from west, but when it sees strategic need to indigenize, they do it in record time. If you don't think PRC can make camera lenses then you haven't kept up. Lots of buzz in photography circles last few years of PRC lenses catching up to Japanese. That's just commercial sector end spamming for commodity. As for EUV, see SSMB. They don't need to match EUV when they can just jump it. EUV is great and all but it's also failure in sense it was suppose to be cheaper tech that ended up as 200m machines due to development difficulties. You're pretending it's blackmagic when it's an engineering problem like every other. One that's IMO much more manage than something like turbojets, commercializng EUV took ASML had ~10k employees, Zeiss SMT had ~3k, Cymer had ~1k, who worked without strategic urgency for 20 years. It's really a modest effort vs Manhattan or even Boeing/Lockheed/Airbus at 100-150k employees for aviation. It's a problem that PRC can throw people at money at and do in ~10 years, as hinted by ASML CEO himself. So trend so far is western experts overestimate.

E: Last post to not bother Dan. You can have last word.