skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
RAND has been in the consensus prediction business since .. well.. RAND was a thing.

This is pretty much normal. It's just that it carries on under the surface, most people are unaware where "sources state that there is a 20% chance of .." comments from the military-strategic orbit come from.

These % figures aren't very meaningful. I personally think they are mis-read more than they are understood. I would not cross the road on a 1 in 10 chance of death. I undertake activity which at least formally has a 1 in 100 chance of negative outcome frequently, and most of us do 1 in 1000 or upward without thinking about it.

The Anti-Vax Phobics were rioting on a 1 in 100,000 risk issue.

I tend to think China-Taiwan by 2030 is in the 5% bucket as well for a number of reasons. Principally, the join over news stating the Chinese Military is massively corrupt, and there are generals weeding out over-claimed capacity, the lack of visible improvement in their naval fleet beyond one Aircraft carrier, and the massive bright red wave of blood which will stem from an opposed landing from sea, in modern warfare. Blood is a remarkable thing, in terms of it's influence on the people at large. China is not Russia, they are nothing like as fatalist about their sons and daughters. An occupation of Taiwan will incur massive loss in the generation which is the one-child policy outcome: Many chinese families will lose their investment in the future. Not to mention the missiles coming back the other way will make this invasion a weapon with two sides, one of which faces coastal investment on the mainland.

That and the highly internally facing quality of the rhetoric: Talking up Taiwan is seasonal politics as people jockey for control of the structures. It's not preparatory to invasion.
I’m very curious how you have this position yet have a MacBook. Why not support a better company like framework?
How relevant are these considerations for practical use cases?

Specifically, for all practical purpose, it is sufficient to have probabilistic guarantees. Suppose an AI is able to generate mathematical proofs as well as humans, it wouldn't really matter if in theory "they are limited to solving problems in TC^0 with failure as negation"
It's not my interpretation, self-proclaimed humble person. Educated people have been discussing this ad nauseam for months. I would not-humbly suggest you actually read up on topics before breathlessly dismissing them deep down an HN comment thread.
For websites I sometimes add a bookmark or add an article to the Safari Reading List, but more often then not, I never revisit. Now that I think of it, I probably should export such websites to PDF and save in iCloud or something ...

With regards to YouTube videos, I add them to the "watch later" list, which works well, since YouTube often recommends videos from the "watch later" list at the home page.
Again, it will be 2-3 more days before I can reply. Thank you!
> “Earlier today, the Milestone Decision Authority, Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, Dr. William A. LaPlante, approved the Milestone C / Full Rate Production (MSC/FRP) of the F-35 Lightning II aircraft with the signing of an Acquisition Decision Memorandum (ADM) after a meeting with the Defense Acquisition Board (DAB).”

The language could very well be from some dark humor novel making fun of three letter acronyms. Definitely reminds me parts of Catch-22.
There’s literally nothing stopping someone from distributing their app as a web app, and no PWA isn’t necessary for distribution.
> There’s no DOS code running deep down in Windows.

Correct.

> What do you have to gain by saying these things?

Stop right there. From the site guidelines: Assume good faith. You've been here long enough that you should know that.

When someone says something wrong, don't immediately assume that they say wrong things because they have something to gain. Don't accuse them of having something to gain. People can just be mistaken.

So correct, but don't accuse.
It’s not about interpretation it’s about ignorance. Where they trained in the difference between a door and a plug? Did they realize it was a door plug and not plug door? Interpretation requires awareness that you are interpreting and that is a surprisingly high bar.
Real wages haven't improved for 15 years where I am :(
Oh totally, theres lots of ways it could be improved. Unfortunately, our courts are also in their pocket for various reasons, and invented whole cloth the concept of qualified immunity. So getting the case to the courts is no guarantee either. Still would be better of course.

I find it so sad, how much of the country was united on this for months, and how little has actually happened in response.
Many vehicles are made in Mexico to bypass these taxes. I don’t really care if we support Mexico or China.
Direct File officially opens in 12 pilot states
I have a similar question. It seems to me that the software engineering salary distribution is bimodal. I'm simplifying a bit here, but basically into those that make <100k USD or >200k USD a year. What makes the difference?
Is it management vs codemonkey? FAANG vs "small" <10k employee corporate?
I like engineering, but my impression is that management often lies to engineers saying "oh, 80k USD is a high salary", when it's clearly not. The divide seems to be between those that know, and those that don't.
“Hubris” is a moral judgment that implies a strategic outcome.

An AGI wouldn’t have a superego, but it would have the ability to study data across really long timescales and apply itself to long term strategies that would supersede the need for a superego. Since we apply morality as a shorthand for describing agreed upon negative consequences for complex behaviors, we can assume that an AI can overcome this need by simply calculating out the full consequences of complex behaviors without the need for any shorthand. And we can assume that AI can even iterate on and develop on its own understanding of these complex calculations much faster than a human can, making it significantly better at navigating moral issues.

We’ve had plenty of ideas that were later found out to be wrong (if not more.) I’d be just as afraid of an AI that was bound to our understanding of reality as I would be of one that wasn’t. For example, if a “moral” AI was coded 100 years ago, it would enforce the belief that homosexuality is immoral.
> base rate reasoning using the past 99 years of data

Like many things, if you do it badly it doesn’t work. If you had that little data, you’d look at the rate across many similar volcanoes.

Focusing on base rate makes you more effective than others because people tend to only focus on the delta from the base rate. Tensions are “elevated”. Ok, elevated from what? People don’t actually ask that. They pull a number out of thin air and double it.

If you intentionally consider “what is the base rate?” and “how is this different from the base case?” you empirically end up with better results.

You’re also not married to the base rate. If you think a factor makes the odds 100x higher, go for it. You just have to say that explicitly.
I believe what was intended by "tackling capital income" is reducing the favorable treatment of income derived from capital relative to income derived from labor.
Perfectly good diesel engines and the carbon dioxide they saved with these cars. Madness, pure madness. Should have just ignored the scandal to protect the local car industry..
It's a neat device but I hesitate to say it is worth it, the lack of backlit screen makes it mostly unplayable to me :/
The pair of animated GIFs adverts ("Request Metrics") inserted into the body of the article are simply awful.
I gave you my argument in detail above with sources that companies routinely collude in anti-consumer ways, but you decided to strick your fingers in your ears and sing "lalala I don't believe you".

Therefore I have no more replies for you to protect my sanity. Feel free to believe whatever you want to believe, just leve me be, i have no duty to waste my time to change your opinion of something you're fixated on.
Hey at least they expand the acronyms!
Will it pay creators for pictures of airforce hangar interiors and classified documents?
And nobody is forcing you to do anything.

I have no idea what your argument is here. That people shouldn't advocate for greater competition in the marketplace just because they already bought a phone?
Sorry, is there a TLDR? I found the article difficult to follow in their main argument. Where can we compete with this team? Who and how will evaluate our results?
One other thing to note: although auras move and change over time, unless they appear in the center of your vision (fovea), you won't be able to directly "look" at one.
The research and evidence is extremely limited. Basically, we don't really know what long-term physical effects are. Given that all of this is pretty invasive, it would be surprising if there are zero effects.

This is not unusual; many medicines have side-effects, and we make cost/benefit estimates based on our knowledge of them. This is the "informed" part of "informed consent".

None of this is controversial as such. Some people are so worried that the "anti-woke warriors" will abuse any negative outcomes that it is now near-taboo, and apparently the activists prefer to uphold the unsubstantiated myth there are no side-effects. This is harmful not just to the people taking puberty blockers, but also to the public debate in general. Those same anti-woke warriors can now claim all sorts of things and you have very little to counter it with, because we just don't know. Also doesn't exactly instil trust in the movement either.
https://www.databricks.com/glossary/what-is-parquet

(I don't think everyone has moved to it. I had never heard of it myself.)
I don’t have 40 years, but I’m a member of the multiple decades club.

Job prospects vary depending on who is hiring, but people develop a wisdom when doing anything for a very long time that’s mostly based on everything you’ve seen (good and bad) in that time. The greatest value I bring to being the old person in the room is knowing what not to do and to be able to explain clearly why.

I’m not meaning the above to sound negative, it’s just that a single good idea rarely makes a business, but a bad one can break it with ease (for example, people wanting to jump on web framework fads that no-one in the company understands well enough to implement securely).
Lose Singapore?
Long time since I looked at this but you might be interested in:

https://mathr.co.uk/blog/2021-05-14_deep_zoom_theory_and_pra...

IIRC it is calculating a few points at high precision and then estimating the rest.
How likely would that be to work? There are often language, cultural, religious, immigration issues, etc between different sides of wars.
I'm not a bad communicator and have entrepreneurial blood so I explored various leadership opportunities over the years but it wasn't really a fit for me. I did well in the various roles but didn't enjoy it.

To point straight at the childhood desires behind it all, I like receiving puzzles to work on and I like wowing people by anticipting their needs and exceeding their expectations.

One can frame management/executive-track work that way too, but the third desire is to do that in the peace and quiet of my own space and (mostly) on my own time -- so for me it all pointed back to increasingly sophisticated remote contract work and using my entrpreneurial blood and commmuniction skills to facilitate it.

I don't think anybody can predict what direction you might want to go, but I do suggest you think about what you're really after in your career and which of your opportunities are more or less aligned with that.
Very true, Windows has gotten worse faster than Linux has got better.

Windows being so bad has pushed people to find a better OS.
I work in the public sector, local government. I'm personally liable for mistakes at my job. I carry insurance for it.
Overall -- a great post.

This part:

> If commercial real estate charged XX% cuts of all sales from a business

As I understand, for luxury fashion brands, this type of contract is sometimes used.
National security, hysteria, anything in between. The government is the people. We can agree to deny ourselves anything for any reason.

From what I've read I'd agree that TikTok should be more independent than it is from its current parent company. And other measures too, like some time limits on users under 18.
It's easy if the outcome isn't coupled tightly enough to the hypothesis.
If your hypothesis is that the stock will go up because of some specific future event, and you buy a call option that is overpriced, you can lose money even if the hypothesis is true (the call option price can decrease).
Of course these terms aren’t well-defined, but some (me) would say both math and CS are subfields of “formal systems” (but “formal systems” could be named CS, which would put it at the top of the hierarchy)
MiniExpr: Parse and execute text math expressions in C for Tcl
I still have the entire manual that I printed and bound circa 1996. I saw a program on PBS about fractals and we had just got dial up internet. I found fractint and cut my programming teeth with that and a copy of Borland that I convinced my parents to buy for me. Running on a 75MHz Compaq. Being a teenager at that time was just magical.

Edit: Just noticed you mentioned Povray too. Are you me? Wow, lol.
Yes, the horse carriage drivers had similar lines of thoughts when they saw first gen automobiles.
How will this discontent manifest itself? It feels like voter apathy is widespread[1], so it would be amazing to me if any politican feels that this is the issue that causes TikTok voters to mobilize no matter what side of the aisle you're on.

[1] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/11/01/turnout-i...
Because MacBooks are just better. (Have owned both.)

I have owned, and continue to own, all sorts of laptops and phones. I could rant about Apple all day long online, but in the end their product is simply superior.
The creator of shadertoy has a stream of him making a jumping animated character with nothing but glsl and sdfs.

I watched his entire process twice, have made sdf animations myself (nothing nearly as good) and it’s still all black magic.
I don't know if you were around when the US internet was inside AOL? And the French inside Minitel?

All the rest of us didn't really care what you all did in there. Platforms and Walled Gardens alike come and go.
ok, maybe one of the biggest wasn't hedged enough. but it is still an important reason imo.

There are many more of course:

- Police can sabotage the re-elections of politicians that oppose them, by doing their job worse and increasing the rate of crime.

- Courts tend to favor the police, inventing such concepts as qualified immunity

- An unfortunately large percent of the country is happy for the police to trample people as long as it's the people they don't like

- And more, which the article gets into some of. I'm not a huge 538 fan but its pretty decent
I think you mean ~1%, not ~10%. I’m not sure that the rest of what you describe is really what is meant by “base rate”. I think you’ve mixed a few concepts together:

- if you estimate the probability based on bad data, you get a bad answer.

- the base rate is a very simple model for the chance something happens – count similar events and divide by the number of potential similar events. One might describe it as an early prior before considering other information

- whether or not something (the eruption) happens in a year

- the probability one predicts for an event when considering more information. For example with the ‘pressure building’ model of the eruption you might decrease the probability immediately after an eruption and increase if it’s been a while (and increase a lot if smoke is coming out)

- sure it’s easy to be right predicting that unlikely events won’t happen. I think the claim of the OP is more that one may hope that the good prediction record transfers to the prediction of unlikely events
Doesn't that argument prove too much? I can think of several things that are much more important to society but regulated less. For example, books are important to society. Should the government dictate what books publishers are allowed to publish? After all, certain ideas are extremely corrosive to society and should be discouraged. (I can think of a few religious texts that might fall under that umbrella.) Or what about the opposite? Amazon doesn't sell certain books on its Kindle platform. Just like Apple and the iPhone, shouldn't Amazon be forced to support third party stores for the Kindle?

Apple's app store isn't nearly as important to society as books, but the EU regulates it much more. That makes me think that the driving factor behind these particular regulations is not importance to society.
Because it's not their business, they're not good at it and probably the ROI is not worth it.

Also how exactly they would do it, they don't have enough infra for renting, they would need to x10 what they have now.
Some whiney speech from Beijing about how it hurt the feelings of the Chinese people.
My desktop regularly wakes itself from sleep to do an update, restarting in the process, and then sits there idle not having gone back to sleep.
> There's a reason they gave a hard pass to a Google partnership.

AIUI, Google required Meta to basically cede control of a partnered OS to them:

"After years of not focusing on VR or doing anything to support our work in the space, Google has been pitching AndroidXR to partners and suggesting, incredibly, that WE are the ones threatening to fragment the ecosystem when they are the ones who plan to do exactly that.

"We would love to partner with them. They could bring their apps to Quest today! They could bring the Play store (with its current economics for 2d apps) and add value to all their developers immediately, which is exactly the kind of open app ecosystem we want to see. We would be thrilled to have them. It would be a win for their developers and all consumers and we’ll keep pushing for it.

"Instead, they want us to agree to restrictive terms that require us to give up our freedom to innovate and build better experiences for people and developers—we’ve seen this play out before and we think we can do better this time around."

-- From Mark Bosworth
Why would they sell if it's for a negligible price? Seems like a pretty terrible deal if all they get out of it is to work at Amazon.
I'm not sure how you distinguish business travelers from tourists. I'm usually a bit of each.
Meta seems to actually be taking all the right steps in how they're contributing to open source AI research. Is this a "commodotize your complement" kind of situation?
> any broker that truly offers CFD trading is (1) going to be legit;

Er, no. "Contracts for Difference" are the new binary options.
I think the intent is relevant as well:

Hummus is a dish made from chickpeas, tahini, oil, and garlic. Guar beans aren't a typical ingredient, but they're processed into power and added to give the dish some additional characteristic.

Coffee is a dish made from coffee. Coffee beans are ground up and processed because they're an essential ingredient.

Nobody has a cherished family high-fructose corn syrup cookie recipe, ha!

Neither me nor the article are suggesting that all processed foods are inherently bad and should be avoided at all cost. Guar gum is probably safer than coffee. What we are saying is that diets higher in processed foods tend to correlate with worse health, and the WSJ article goes further to suggest causes. Hummus is a terrible example... better might be McDonalds burgers vs those from a farm stand, or lattes vs black coffee. But hummus made from raw ingredients is also probably better for you than one bought from the store filled with preservatives.
> As the scotoma’s shining edges recede across your field of vision, they trace a corresponding wave of electrical activity, a “spreading depression” crossing the cortex at 3 millimeters per minute.

I didn't realize the way scotomas grow mirrors the cortical spreading depression in your brain, but it makes sense! Explains why the scotoma doesn't really "vanish," it just gets bigger until expands past your field of vision.

I also wonder whether this proves that the scotomas I've had in dreams were real migraine auras and not just... dream artefacts or whatever.
Still, when two sensors disagree how do you determine which sensor is correct? Really 3+ are needed
> You should not have to police adults on what they're allowed to do with their property.

The fundamental problem with this "power to the people" mentality is that adults don't actually know how to use technology. The average person is technologically illiterate.

You can go on about giving adults full control over their property, etc. etc. but we both know that this is how you get security disasters: old people getting scammed, people losing their life savings and what not.

Part of being an effective security engineer, is realizing that you need to protect people themselves. 2FA is a prime example of security driven via this mindset: necessary because the technologically illiterate masses reuse passwords. There are other benefits, but that's the main reason.

So you shouldn't have to police people, but practically, in the end you do.

> If someone is ok with putting their whole digital life at risk, then let him do so.

All fun and games until people lose their life savings and get forced into homelessness or whatever.

Then these people start to blame you. Then technologically illiterate senators and regulators will also blame you. Lose-lose scenario.

Crypto is a prime example of what happens when you give people control. "Power to the people!," tons of people get scammed, and this prompts regulatory lockdown.

TL;DR is that the EU regs wouldn't be a problem if Apple could hide the functionality behind developer settings, but they can't. Exciting times, people in the EU are gonna get totally fucked by shady apps. GG.
Mind giving some high level clarification on how Apple would revoke entitlements on applications they’re not allowed to manage? Honestly curious about the infrastructure involved, is it really simple from a technological stand point?

If the developer needs to use Apple resources to track and manage said entitlements, and the consumer expects Apple to police bad actors, then are we asking Apple to do this for free on the bad actor’s behalf (oops, I didn’t mean to use your microphone, GPS, BLE in order to sell the info to an enemy state, law enforcement, angry ex!) or should the cost of said infrastructure be passed to the customer when purchasing hardware? OR does Apple wait until an application is exposed, generally through an echo chamber after the damage is done and is made aware of the issue?
Is there a difference between steps accumulated walking miles nonstop versus steps accumulated doing chores in the house in between longer bouts of sitting?

My gut assumption would be - yes?
> lots of anecdotal tales of technology illiterate grandparents, fathers and mothers being better off

I'll bite. Is there anyone here that thinks overall security for elderly (and lower skilled users) will *not* be hurt by additional app stores? I find it hard to believe. And, I write this post an an uber geek is is neither an Apple fan boi, but is very impressive by their overall security and UX. For the geeks, it would be great to have more stores. For the average users... maybe... For the least tech-savvy users, I cannot believe it will benefit them.
You don't know for that event.

If you predict 100s of events, then use a method like Brier scores, you can get a good idea of how good you are. Even then it's probabilistic, but with enough samples it becomes incredibly unlikely you are just the worlds luckiest guesser.
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