skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Same here on all counts.

Mine tended to happen in clusters, with weeks or months with none before the first in what's usually a series.

Based on some research, hunches, and a sense of harmlessness, I started taking magnesium when I notice a first one and rarely (never?) have another anytime soon thereafter.
Yes, famous examples like Bloomberg
I run a self hosted Forgejo instance in my homelab, and have it set up to push mirror to hosted forges for redundancy/publication. It's stupid easy to set up and maintain (I've given it 2vCPUs, 2GiB of RAM, and a 20GiB disk).
I wish I could buy the pure powder

Maybe Sigma has it
I can certainly appreciate that! Would encourage you to try sometime. Creating and sharing more than your opinion is a lot of fun.
In a good prediction market the bets function as binary options, with a payout at 100 for being correct within the time frame.

so its more about what price between 0 and 100 would you bet on that belief

at 20 you have a 500% gain if it resolves at 100

and this willingness to bet is telegraphed to the crowd, it doesn't really mean conviction but maps to the crowds aggregate understanding of the probability occurring or not
Do you believe that is a common case, or an exceptional one?
$1T Market Cap lets it be known it will invest $10B a year into $current-hype that will change everything. P/E loosens speculatively on sudden new unbounded potential, Market Cap $1.1T. Hype funded. PR as innovator cemented.
Not the same. Literally different products.

Market segmentation
I recall how much better the experience of flying British Airways was, notably the food and drinks. Too bad it was only once
The company that claims to have "the highest standard everywhere in the world" for security and privacy, happens to run a major desktop platform (macOS) with only a primitive basic signature-based antivirus built-in. Instead they rely on Gatekeeper/notarization for the bulk of the protection, which is a pain for devs (when it doesn't work right) and less effective.

Same is now happening with iOS sideloading, instead of robust antimalware based on heuristics and app behavior (like Google Play Protect), they'll keep relying on blunt instruments like notarization. Doubt it'll keep users safer. Maybe it's NIH syndrome?
To be honest, I don't think BASIC makes a good command line. It's been done but it's not really that great.

As someone who computed in the DOS era, programmed in BASIC, and even installed different command interpreters with more features -- I never once thought that BASIC would have made this better.

The other factor was actually disk and memory size -- you want to keep things as minimal as possible to keep things running fast. When your command line interpreter is reloaded from floppy disk every time you return from a program, you want that to be fast.
Hopefully you don’t end up looking like him.
Shambles: An IoT Reverse Engineering Tool to Discover 0-Day Vulnerabilities
My migraine always comes with zigzag colorful ribbon, tingling in my right hand and the right side of my tongue, and disappearing areas of vision as you describe. My speech is also affected -- incorrect words or garbled words come out of my mouth when I try to talk. The symptoms are quite stroke-like -- it sounds like there's actually a bit of a continnum between migraine and stroke, with TIA (transient ischmeic attacks) in between. I did get scanned after my first one though and no damage was visible. Thankfully, mine only last about half and hour, and only seem to happen once a year or so. It's such a weird experience that I tend to forget how strange it is between occurrences because it's hard to believe the memories.
The Ozempic Revolution Is Stuck
I wonder if this is more a wild west pulp fiction meme, than actual reality. A lot of people today are collateral damage of cars, getting maimed, mutilated, crippled, killed, it's pretty indiscriminatory, drivers and bystanders alike suffer its consequences. It's hard to believe horses had the same blast radius proportionally speaking.
> It's incredible how far behind HN of all places is w.r.t. what the current best tech is.

Good fucking Christ, Opus has been out for like 8 days, I've had holidays longer than that!
I will hit 20 years of professional programming experience in a few months.

My q to everyone who has kept at it: did you continue up the career ladder into staff eng-type roles? They’re put on the IC ladder but get further away from programming. I’m still conflicted about that. I can see myself trying that for a few years then just dropping back to senior level.

I did realize recently that it is hard to give up programming when my whole professional career has been built around being seen as the person who programs things well.
Wegovy Moves Beyond Weight Loss
oh yeah, the article that explains that mistake and failure aren't the same thing doesn't contradict your point that mistake and failure are the same thing.

man, I'm so glad you cleared that up for us...
I took meteorology in high school and our teacher made us do a daily prediction exercise that I think would benefit all people, especially those who put too much weight into their own anecdata.

We just had to make a prediction for the next day's weather. Then compare our prediction to the forecasted prediction. It didn't matter how accurate we were for the grade. Just that we systematically performed this exercise.

It really made one appreciate the quality of forecasts, and that no, the "weather man" is not always wrong at all. A lot of huffing and puffing is from people who lack any rigor in their observations. And if you're trying to contest the accuracy of weather forecasts, or any form of forecasting really, then you really should provide some hard evidence.
> some ingredients the maintainers don't like

From the Washington Post article above, you can add these names:

Kevin Hall, Scientist
National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases

Dariush Mozaffarian, Cardiologist
Dean, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy
Tufts University

Carlos A. Monteiro, Professor of Nutrition and Public health
School of Public Health
University of Sao Paulo, Brazil
It's just security theatre. App could pay enough to get competent people to grind out a few months of mind numbing app reviews. I guarantee they don't.
I get these regularly, but luckily they don’t go on to be actual migraines.

Drs have referred to this as “pre-migraine”. I’m glad that they don’t go on to full migraines as other members in my family have experienced debilitating episodes over the years.

I have tried to explain what I see to others but never had much luck.

The best example I could come up with was this: imagine sitting in a cinema where the screen is what you see out of your eyes (an obviously bad metaphor). Then imagine that someone behind the screen has stabbed thru with a knife and slashed a portion of the screen so that there is a flap that no longer holds any image.

That’s kinda what I see when I get one of these.
In some countries it’s possible for civilian lawyers to press criminal charges specifically for situations like this. There’s some gatekeeping by the courts and whatnot to approve the case but it’s pretty reasonable. Also allows victims to “press charges” when the police mysteriously refuse to.

Burden of proof remains the same as for a state-appointed prosecutor. And judges still get similar leeway in sentencing.
You can get it as powder from Kremer Pigments:

https://shop.kremerpigments.com/us/shop/pigments/45320-yinmn...
That also helps to zero out the probability you'll be paying someone who takes a "craftsperson's approach" to their work, versus a "production-line approach".

Neither is bad. The production-line approach is good at producing something defined by a fixed specification, reliably. Predictability in quantity produced and product quality are both important.

The craftsperson's approach is good at producing things where each thing is an incremental improvement over the last. Predictability in quantity produced is usually an anti-goal, as it is best left as another project (probably another craftperson's project). Predictability of quality produced is often sacrificed on purpose in order to get out of a local optima and better explore a larger landscape. So, while quality improves in the long term, it may not in the short term.

Patronage, historically, was aware of this. It did not demand, it trusted. It was intensely aware of the imperfection in humans, and it is questionable to what extent it considered genius as a truth, rather than merely a helpful myth (helpful only after the person was long dead, and not actually in the production of new creative works, but rather in keeping up the market value of previously created works, in order to help fund new ones).

Patreon, on the other hand, lacks such nuance.
In practice you're going to get vehicles wanting to change lanes. Merging from both sides of a road at once is a terrible idea.
Sad to say but it seems pretty are pretty dumb. Robinhood yields robinhood for first non-ad app, same with Bank of America, chase, Citi, etc. do people really just click the first thing they see? Wow.

As for the example - can’t replicate, but seems crazy to put a seed phrase into some random app you didn’t get yourself. Even if the app wasn’t a scam.
No one is trapped on any social media platform. Zuck and Musk aren't sending armed goons to kill anyone who dares to leave, in fact people have been leaving Twitter in droves.
> claim better targeted content

Any such claim is irrelevant. The personal opinion of the receiver of the content is not relevant, only that the content delivered somehow makes money for the sender.

> That has driven people away from these platforms.

Platforms? These entities do not derive profits only from visits to their own domains. Please inspect the source code of any random site you read next. On the majority of web sites in the Western hemisphere you will find either a Facebook script or a Google script, or both. Often more than these two.
Eh. A rather large amount of Android malware convinces people to approve access to photos/contacts/files/etc. by pretending to have functionality they don't.

Apple rejects apps that ask for permission they don't need and apps that pretend to be what they aren't from the App Store.

There's a reason why malware is far more prevalent on Android than iPhone.
> Ideally developers could let the user know their caps lock key is activated.

That would be up to the User Agent (the browser), not the website.
Even if this is right (and I definitely think there is a lot of truth to it!), planning is not the only kind of "writing down ideas to reinforce and flesh them out" activity. Is it the most valuable one? And is this the only and best way to reinforce and flesh out ideas, or are there other ways that might be even better, like creating prototypes or just actively fiddling around with different approaches and possibilities? In my view, it isn't that there is no value in pondering the detailed sequence of work it will require to accomplish something over the next three months, it's more that I think beyond a horizon of a few weeks, most of the other things I could be doing with that time usually ends up seeming more valuable, to me.
Can't they just make their devices more expensive instead?
For patent trolls, the answer is typically yes. Though that’s not “illegal”.
They are also so far profitless (unless you are nvidia) and useless. The last gasp of an industry on its last legs.
> Is exactly how and why they managed to have a curated environment.

So in other words they have taken the users choice away using their market power! Glad you agree!

Either a user's choice is taken away in both situations, or it is neither situations.

> If users want more freedom, they can just use Android.

Actually they are unable to get the 30% discount from apps that only work on iPhone.

And now they will be! Now the user will be allowed to choose to get that 30% discount and Apple will not be able to take away a user's choice to buy the app on an alternative app store.
Not a C+++?
Being acquired by Amazon has nothing of "failed" in my book.
The "base rate" argument is a rather odd one to make. The base rate of war was hasn't changed much from 2022, that didn't stop Ukraine from happening. Neither did it stop people from calling it. (It certainly didn't stop Samotsvety, who made that call correctly as well)

And given that each year sees ~50[1] new armed conflicts (for a total of 195 countries total) I'd posit that the base rate significantly exceeds their estimate of 22%.

Yes, of course, a war between China & Taiwan is not just like any war, and there are significant characteristics that influence the likelihood that aren't present in other wars, but at that point, talking of a base rate is just misleading.

And when you then "average" the "base rate" of hand picked special cases like "how often did control of Taiwan change", you're waving your hands. Wildly.

Which means the point isn't the idea of base rates per se, but choosing the right base rates - or answering the question "what is relevant here", and then analyzing from there.

The other success factor for forecasting orgs is choosing what you forecast. As such, I have questions about the actual forecasts made being locked behind a paywall: https://samotsvety.org/track-record/ (It doesn't mean they're not good at forecasting, but it's hard to judge how good)

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/conflict-measures-how-do-research...
Yes, serious forecasters predict on hundreds of questions & the relevant websites prominently feature "binary calibration" plots.

This is mine on Metaculus (mentioned in the article):

https://imgur.com/a/d3s67xk

There's still a bit of noise at 205 predictions but you can see a pattern emerging!
I have a similar problem. Not just with articles, but videos as well. I made it my goal this year to actually get through the backlog.

I started with videos, because that’s the easier one for me. I started pushing myself to go to my watch later list before the recommended feed. Between cleanup and watching stuff, I’ve knocked out about 300 videos. I have about 100 left.

I think the reading list will be harder, I’m thinking of unplugging my TV for a while to create space for it.

Form factor does matter. If you prefer books, exporting the articles, compiling them into book form, and having it printed up might help. It might be a bit of work and have some cost associated with it, but if that allows it to fit into your normal patterns, that might be what it takes.
Looks like they deleted it and restricted file uploads :/
SimonDev's videos are pure gold.
I mean, the brain is, if you want to consider it a computer, pretty god damn efficient. It's slow as hell but it's really powerful and runs on bread.
:) Alas, I do not blog.
A hermit lived by the volcano, and every day he would put up a sign for all the tourists hiking up to see it:"100% accurate prediction: Won't Erupt Today."

One day, 30 years later, the volcano's caldera began to spit magma and bubble with gas, so that morning the old hermit walked outside and changed his sign: "99.99% accurate"...
Some months ago and my conclusion was the same, useful enough for videos, too clumsy for interactive flash, so useless for my needs.
Huh? Fortnite is totally on Android: https://www.fortnite.com/mobile/android
Would anyone happen to have a recommendation for someone hoping to make Gödel's incompleteness theorem "click"? It feels like every time I reapproach it, I have to start the intuition building all over again.
How do you know I won't use them?
Australia has walked away from a panicked anti-doxxing promise
webcache: https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https%...
So why not make a special prosecutor who only deals with police cases?

The solution seems too simple.

That makes me think that the underlying thing causing this issue to plague American society isn't what you suggest.
Another consideration is that Federal, state, and local tax collection currently stands at approximately 40% of US GDP for the US.

This puts a natural upper limit on how much the government can just raise revenue and simply do. Eventually people need to consider not revenue, but instead what they want the government to prioritize, and how efficiently it does it.

I find that most people are in disbelief when they hear this Stat because they think in terms of individual tax rates and not serial multiplication. Take a widget company by way of example. It produces a widget which it sells for profit. Company pays corporate income tax, then passes the rest on to investors who pay income or capital gains tax again. The investor then uses that income to pay sales taxes on anything they buy as well as property taxes and miscellaneous fees.
Interesting.

From what I know of the funding situation, they're looking for some kind of exit in the next couple of years. So a pro management team might be a part of that. (I should mention that the new execs are all from the upper-middle tier of household-name companies. Definitely bragworthy achievements but not legends.) I don't know if they have an actual acquirer right now; they aren't really acting like that as far as I can tell.

I guess acquirers care if you have pedigreed management? And probably it looks good on an S-1, if that doesn't turn out?
What about tire dust?
Without the enter/exit rules, so any reasonable amount of traffic is going to cause many bottlenecks with merging and increased potential of accidents.
Don't worry, this goal will change with the next hype cycle
That is exactly my point. The OP read like a moaning Amsterdammer. I see it a lot: residents of that city complaining about the tourist crowds. I think a better idea would be a very high tourist tax -- like 100 EUR per day charged via hotels etc. (Business travelers would be exempt.) Then, you can exclude all of the low end tourists that few people want in their crowded cities -- they can enjoy second tier cities, or day trips from a nearby city. I cannot find it now, but there is a group of small Italian seaside villages that implemented something similar to limit the number of tourists. My point: Go for quality of visitors, not quantity. The tourist tax can be used to improve tourist infrastructure.
It looks exactly like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVFIcF9lyk8
Yes, it seems like you’re getting it.
As of about 5 years ago this started happening to me for some reason. I can confirm what another poster said - it comes as quite a shock the first time ! It happens to me about once a year now and it's painless but weird. I've never suffered from conventional (painful) migraines.
The repulsion field is incredibly strong. Even with known field harmonics and modulation frequency I just can’t get through!
good airline food but at a higher ticket price is not what consumers actually choose to buy. They'd rather suffer and get a discount on the ticket. They merely complain about that suffering.
Physicists Finally Find a Problem for Quantum Computers Alone
I think in this case "fix" means more like "prevent further changes." They don't actually want it to topple either.
Right…there are always going to be concerns, no manufacturer is perfect…some are bad, some good, soon change with time, some don’t.

What the conversation was pointing out that coverage of such issues tends to shift with the closeness in time to something really bad. If your one of your planes crashes, anytime your planes has an issue for a whole the coverage is going to be amplified. The manufacturer is irrelevant…it’s the nature of media coverage and human biases
Another very perfect looking simulation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVYjbthGk2s
> Frankly, I still have the feeling there are people who find me intimidating, but I don't know what to do about it.

If you did know what to do about it, what would you do?
Apple has reported to the EU that Apple's EU App Store revenue is 7% of their global revenue, a far cry from 40% of their profits. Don't believe what some rando posted here and then base your entire comment on that belief or be prepared to be wrong much of the time, and in embarrassing ways.

Apple can't even afford to lose that though or Cook would face a board and shareholder revolt.

And what if the EC doesn't stop there, well, most of us are hoping they won't an that Apple will be paying billions in fines until they cut the malicious compliance song and dance and get serious about respecting the EU's competition laws. Apple cannot leave and will not leave and so they will ultimately do what ever the EC demands of them. It's just a matter of how much they pay in fines first.
Teeny Tiny GPT-4 CLI Wrapper
I've been using this for the last few weeks and it's been a lot of fun, both for work and just screwing around.

Curious if there are any other tiny jobs or workflows people have been using LLMs for (how do I do this bash command, check my diff, generate a commit message, please explain clipboard text) that I could add in
breathing any kind of dust is usually bad for you... even wood saw dust.
Zero info on pricing on the page is unfortunate. Looks great.

&Or make a longer demo video?

---

Any opinion on Fabric?

https://github.com/danielmiessler/fabric

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEXd6TXPw7E

https://www.fabrichq.ai
Thanks for the info. I think if Playdate could be significantly cheaper without the included games, it could bring in more people who would then buy games if interested (as well as potential developers). But, I understand it’s hard to say - they need to make money on the device too.
Here's how I usually describe what a migraine aura looks like:

It's just like the after-image you see after glancing directly at a bright light (like a light bulb's filament) then looking away or closing your eyes. Now imaging that after-image with a colorful scintillation along the edges, sometimes wrapping around a blind spot in your vision (not necessarily a black spot).

The cilia of a lobed comb jelly are close to what I'm talking about (video: https://youtu.be/LPu1juezWeg)

Auras are beautiful little harbingers of debilitation.
Perhaps the tone (sarcasm?) of your post caused some downvotes, but your point is well taken. I didn't consider that the panels are not made in Australia. They are very likely made in China. I guess that Australia has much lower tariffs to import solar panels compared to the US.
> base rate reasoning using the past 99 years of data would suggest that the probability is 0

Looking at edge cases is good for sanity checking, so it's a good habit, and I commend you.

In your example, though, we can also consider the base rate of an event which hasn't happened in 99 years as 1/101, per Laplace's rule of succession. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_succession
Read an article about this a few years back that was title Vile High Club. Loved it so much I grabbed the domain.

It may have been this article: https://skift.com/2012/11/18/fda-finds-airlines-outside-cate...