skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
I think the article focused on base rates because they're a relatively unusual and legible "trick" to coming up with a forecast, but really they're only one element of a forecast; typically a forecaster will think about many different ways to "attack" a question and synthesize them (somehow!). Choice of denominator for your base rate is very important also and can radically change the answer you get.

The sites which host these forecasting competitions correct for the bias against rare events through what's called "proper scoring" rules -- there's some specific maths to it, but the short version is that you're exponentially rewarded for being a correct contrarian and exponentially punished for being confidently wrong.

There are limits to that too, of course -- the folks in the article will "only" have made on the order of mid hundreds to low thousands of predictions, so roughly speaking, you can expect these people to be calibrated for 1% or 0.5% odds but probably not 0.1% odds.
I'm not saying they don't have force of law. I'm saying the EU did not write them as strongly as the other versions, making them harder to understand and potentially steering the law in a different direction.

I'm reading the French version, and I find it clear that Apple is not following the DMA with its fee it cannot charge itself.
> In the private sector, you'd no longer be able to buy the components it's built out of.

Hmm?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_C-130_Hercules
Seems like victory through attrition. It might be the only modern fighter produced for export in the Western world.
Where can I recover my stolen backpack?
You can probably fish it off flight radar. If you have an adsb broadcaster they’ll give you a free pro subscription
I mean technically Twitter could have hired a hit man to come after you too. But they didn't. So I don't get the point
This guy's the least risk adverse trader on the Internet! (I know, probably not, but it's funnier this way)
I wonder if energy market speculation is playing a role in making weather forecasts more accurate. I would not be surprised if some stock markets also get influenced by weather, especially during periods of high fluctuations in energy costs.
It's not at all the same thing? Also there's a more apt comparison, which is forcing Google to make Android open and allow alternative app stores (oh wait, they already do).

App stores are a natural monopoly. An app store with more users attracts more developers. An app store with more apps attracts more users. It has a strong network effect and economies of scale. Natural monopolies should be regulated to prevent abuse by the first companies that capture wide market share.
https://i.imgur.com/0ZtnqK2.jpeg

Couldn't resist
Can someone explain what purpose a manned fighter jet serves in the age of UCAV? I understand with the F35 specifically it’s turned into a jobs programme, but why not turn it unmanned?
You can't trust it.

You need the same (and probably more) robust controls in place as you would use for a more junior developer.

A human will be influenced by the potential outcome of any proposed solution. For example they might worry about the impact to their employment status if they are wrong, while an LLM will just spit out an answer that is "most likely correct".
I think I just followed the official recommendations I found (which are probably stale now). I'll update it to r5, but it doesn't really matter. The price difference between the two is like 5%, but hardware only ends up representing a tiny fraction of Kafka's cost at scale (the real cost comes from EBS and inter-zone networking).

I could make the hardware free for Kafka in the comparison, and WarpStream would still come out significantly more cost effective. Cloud networking is really expensive.
Show HN: I made a tool to ditch paying $20/month LLM subscriptions
My number as well.
Sounds just up my alley. I know nothing about airplanes yet find them fascinating.
Airline upgrades is a market for lemons. Even if you, say, buy an upgraded seat you may get sat next to a big guy or a rowdy child and then your seat sucks. Instead you have to pay much more (sometimes multiple times a main-cabin ticket) for the cabins up front and even then you might have to set next to a drunk businessman.

If you complain you will get told there's nothing that can be done. Even if you get sat in a seat soiled with vomit or poop[1][2]. And of course you may get bumped from your flight, potentially violently[3] or have it delayed, rerouted or cancelled.

So it's a market for lemons, you buy the cheapest ticket you can since the experience is likely to suck no matter what you do, and you try to endure it.

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2023/09/05/air-canada-...
[2] https://www.newsweek.com/delta-passenger-forced-sit-seat-cov...
[3] https://qz.com/954791/everything-that-went-wrong-in-uniteds-...
From small arms. A heavy machine gun can cut through an engine block and still kill you.
EDIT: Sorry - The article was about it took 17 YEARS to work out all these bugs...

So - it reminded me of the thought of the 737max bugs that boeing is plagued with right now...

---

I'm really curious to know how much of all these billions we are sending out to all these wars will come back to this project?

Also, in a general aviation sense, I think all planes should have a link to their service records.

I think that service records should be required to be made public for ALL large transit modals; sea, air, rail, etc.

A restaurant has to publicly post their health score.

Thoughts

---

I just thought of: there should be public data sets from the FAA with all service records for all licensed commercial aircraft - and an llm fine tuned to produce ratings and spot errors.

This I think would be an epic(ly) hard thing to do, however the current Boeing Catastrophuk ESP with the 'suicide' of the Whistleblower would be good leverage to force this law.

---

Actually I asked BING to GPTify this thought more succinctly, and got a pretty pretty pretty good response:

For Boeing’s crash data over the last 40 years, I can provide a general overview. However, specific annual data might not be readily available in a single source.

Here’s what I found:

Here is every Boeing Safety event Since 1970 on the NTSB site

https://www.ntsb.gov/Pages/ResultsV2.aspx?queryId=d6cc0483-0...

Boeing 737 Accidents: As of February 2024, there have been a total of 529 aviation accidents involving all 737 aircraft [0]

Boeing’s Annual Summary: Provides insights into the safety of commercial air travel worldwide, including accident statistics [1]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incident...

[1] https://www.boeing.com/content/dam/boeing/boeingdotcom/compa...

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/boeing-whistleblower-john-bar...

---
> one needs to use statistics to even show GHZ works

Not for the particular cases described in the quote I gave. For a complete verification of all the GHZ theorem's predictions, yes, you need to do statistics, because some of those predictions are probabilistic.

> The correlations you get in experiments are never perfect

In some cases, like the ones described in the quote I gave, it isn't a matter of correlations. You have contradictory results predicted by two different models, each prediction being 100% certain according to the model. You don't need any statistics to test that: just do one single run and see which way it comes out.
I'm at around 25 years and have decided to stick with the middle of the IC ladder. Moving past that means no more working directly with the technology, only touching it indirectly. Plus theses are "leadership" roles, which pretty much just means moving into the dysfunctional, hierarchical structure most companies seem to default into. I prefer peers, not subordinates.

To put it another way, my favorite thing about programming is the creative aspect. Getting a problem, thinking of a solution and then writing the code that solves it is more rewarding than anything the higher positions have to offer.
Hell yea!
There are professional gamblers (pro poker?). I think I understand the spirit of what you're trying to say, but CFDs are absolutely a gamble, like most investing. It just doesn't have the same stink of "casino gambling," it's a fresh cut, cologne wearing, suited up form of gambling.
It's obviously an opinion.

I have plenty of computers running Windows and a variety of Linux distros at my home. Laptops, desktop, servers, and weird hybrids of the former.

Same with mobile - I have tried Android, iOS, PureOS, GrapheneOS.

Apple's UX is so far ahead for me. It's just better. But, you obviously disagree. No need to be disparaging.
good name. goes with all sorts of possibilities. feature jenkum and mad dog 20/20 and airline food and it all fits together thematically.
Logically, if it was unmanned, wouldn't that result in less jobs?
Wars are meant to end misery and suffering.
The price is starting to look right, too. I'm still shocked by this.
If anyone gets these and is in the dark as to a cause, I have found a very strong correlation with excessive caffeine intake. I have been wrestling a caffeine addiction under control, and have found that these always occur on the days when I relapse and have many cups of coffee or energy drinks. It isn't bidirectional-- lots of caffeine doesn't always cause the migraine-- but the migraines always happen only when I've had a lot of caffeine. Whereas when I'm on the wagon and consuming none, or normal amounts, I never have them anymore.

I'm not sure if it's the caffeine in and of itself or downstream of something like higher blood pressure, but the correlation is extremely strong.
Gab sowing: Haha fuck yeah!!! Yes!!

Gab reaping: Well this fucking sucks. What the fuck.
There might be an argument that the app store itself is the scam.

I think there are ~ 3m apps available right now. Apple is the only place (currently) to sell apps, or buy apps. They interpose themselves, and do a poor job of things. How can a buyer make his apps visible? How can a seller find anything?

There should not only be more app stores, there should be markets and communities and personal apps.
That is normal and the acronym comes second:

Boaty McBoat Face (BMcBF)

Now I can use BMcBF and you have all the information you need to work out what I'm on about.

I'm pretty sure that "Usage and abusage" encourages that format.

The only slightly controversial aspect of my example is M vs Mc. Mc is already an abbreviation, so should it be repeated intact? For me, Mc is complicated enough as a contraction and abbreviation to warrant deployment in full, as I have done.
I think it's a little bit better than that. There was a theory in operation: regulation which prevents sprawling monopolies will produce good results for society.

Of course, if you shook the historical dice differently, there would be different results. From that point of view it's all contingent, and you can't re-run the historical experiment, and so whatever conclusions you draw must be a Just So story.

But, that theory was in operation. There were regulations which prevented sprawling monopolies, and large (but not sprawling monopolistic) companies did produce a lot of good things for society. No one knew what they would be ahead of time - that's all contingent, after all - but regulators regulated with the expectation that their regulations would produce good effects.

Now we've de-regulated, and the people doing the de-regulation theorize that (predictably) sprawling monopolistic companies will produce more good for society than large (but not sprawling monopolistic) regulated companies did.

So... Did / do they? It's fair enough to argue either way. It's fair enough to argue about which regulations are effective and which are not. It's not fair enough to throw up our hands and say "we can't actually know what's going to happen, so there's no point discussing it."

Because there are theories of economics and governance in play, and they matter, and they need to be appraised.
Same, meals in Delta One on both transatlantic and North<->South America routes are actually something I look forward to on my trips—those short ribs are scrumptious! Domestic first can be hit or miss, mostly miss because I miss lunch time flights (haha), but they too also been mostly acceptable.

If I anticipate something not great, I’ll stow away some shake shack.
Bluesky's Stackable Approach to Moderation
Singers become singers because they want to be singers, not because want to sing
>> jet that everybody wants.

That was the f22. And we blocked international sales in favor of the f35. The death of the f22 should not be mourned, we will get 6th gen research to replace it.

As for the everybody wants it bit, this is very true. Much to the ~~shargrin~~ chagrin of EU military industry. With one of our presidential candidates calling for us pulling out of nato, with us not backing Ukraine, I would expect that the f35 is the last major military product we sell in the EU this way. And for as much as I might not love it, that spending is a large part of our exports and economy.
There's no substitute for a local meteorologist who knows how weather patterns work in your region and knows how to interpret the models and is good at communicating that to regular people.
Uh. It's nothing like as bad as it was 20-30 years ago.
Just when we thought time trial [bike] helmets couldn't get any weirder
When the App store was new, the "free" apps were actually free. Now practically all of the "free" apps featured on the app store are not free at all. Half the time you can't even do anything without paying, but you only find this out after going through the hassle of downloading the app.

A better app store would make pricing actually clear before you download the app, instead of the nightmare that pretend "free" apps have created.
BA used to have the 777s with 9-across seating. That was the best way to cross the atlantic in the main cabin of any airline.
We do love the neutral good one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_tRYN6xdvc

Although sometimes it can have results that would better be described as chaotic

https://youtu.be/g5p9X0xYYz8?t=2m20s
Machines currently are at an amateur level, but amateurs across the board on the knowledge base.

Amateurs at Python, Fortran, C, C++ and all programming languages. Amateurs at car engineering, airplane engineering, submarine engineering etc. Amateurs at human biology, animal biology, insect biology and so on.

I don't know anyone who is an amateur at everything.
Some websites have a feature for that called a "block button"
Don't forget Dutch citizens voted previously in a national referendum against mass surveillance which was promptly ignored and the right to call a referendum repealed.
The Gamepad API is fun, but we’re not trying to implement a gamepad.
> why would the laser beam would never stop passing by matter?

Because there is matter everywhere in our universe. It never stops.

> Because of the metric expansion of the universe?

It is true that, in order for there to be matter everywhere in our universe, it must be either expanding or contracting. (There is an edge case, the Einstein static universe, but it is unstable against small perturbations, like a pencil balanced on its point, so it is not a viable option.)

> Isn't it reasonable to assume that there is a skirt of the universe where matter keeps expanding into nothingness?

No. Such a model cannot match our observed data.
The Italian armed forces parading in front of the presidential residency in Rome sometimes march to Circus tunes familiar to anyone who watches cartoons. Because everything musical has a long history, and doesn't always reflect it's origins well in a modern context (many semi-military tunes wound up in the circus. The clowns march for instance, is "Entrance of the Gladiators" from a Czech composer in the 19th century.)

The one I saw, they did the guard handover ceremony to "Sobre Las Olas" by Juventino Rosas also from the late 19th century, which is "the flying trapeze" waltz.

Don't forget the Monty Python theme is a Souza march: Liberty Bell.
Aerospace programs can have extremely long timelines in the private sector, too. Variants of the Boeing 737 have been produced since 1966. While the recent MAX versions were flawed and Boeing has some real quality issues, you can still get service parts for the original airframe.
Sounds like an issue. Updates that need a reboot are like once a month. If you get that routinely something must be wrong.
I came from 1password and bitwarden was leagues better than it. I still don't like the browser addon but anything beat 1password
> There is no reason for the security measures to be more onerous for the competing thing if they were sufficient for Apple's thing, unless the purpose of the security measures is to prevent competition.

Web Distribution means Apple is handing over responsibilities previously handled by the Marketplace directly to the developer. Allowing developers to police themselves is obviously riskier.

> The device's owner having control over apps is.

This is simply not true. Device owners are hopeless at maintaining the security of their devices.

> How is it "strictly necessary" for the gatekeeper to force them to use one provider of vetting services over another?

There are 2 tiers of "vetting services": 1. Marketplaces determine the appropriate content or type of apps allowed in their listings, 2. Apple determines if an app, developer, or marketplace is an outright threat, e.g. if an app turns out to be a scam, or if a bug in an app exposes an exploit, it is "strictly necessary" for Apple to be able to yank the app immediately.
start with something small - take some kernel function in C, and try to optimize it for your laptops assembly SIMD instruction set.
You don't have to fantasize, Android phones have had this possibility since the first version of the OS.
shargrin?
Doubt it would happen but I'd love to see CloudFlare support this for all their domains. Blocking them is blocking 1/3rd of the internet.
The US, and the allies to which it exports F-35s, are overwhelmingly a net force for peace in the world. There’s a reason why the phrase “Pax Americana” is so well-known. You can think of these as war machines, since they’re literally machines made for use in war — but you can also think of them as war prevention machines, causing would-be aggressors to think twice before, like, invading Singapore or some such unpleasantness.
That is always the claim of one side of each war, more often both.
you have vilehigh.club?
How do you think we won WW2? By praying?
You may be correct? Then the assumption would be developers need to pay the $99 fee to be part of the Apple dev program (pretty sure that’s the only way to get notarized). Next step in Apple’s playbook might be upping that fee for third party stores?
Out of interest - why don't you guys do way more of this for financial markets?
Just imagine if middle management figured they could do thier stuff in Excel that they pay $Foo SaaS vendor 9k per month for.

Yep, you guessed it they'd just do absolutely nothing.
Wars can be meant to end misery and suffering. Not always.

And they always cause misery and suffering, even if they are just.
> service records should be required to be made public

We’re still talking about military aircraft?
I'm most interested in what the unit economics here are. Inefficiencies in Western manufacturing are seem like they could be significant since the big threat in the short term seems to be a WWI style blow up by UN security council countries.

The US is basically broke and seems to be struggling industrially. It won't be able to ignore economics if it has to conduct a war against an industrial power.
Pisa airport takes cheap flights and there's a train station and hotels at walking distance. It can be a good base to start your adventures!
Doesn't it have an advantage over roundabouts in that the main traffic can keep moving at normal speed?
I've heard it as a general rule when flying internationally to always choose the foreign carriers over a US one.
Has 1password stepped up their game recently? They were significantly worse every time I've tried them. They've lost me and I'm not willing to try again anytime soon, but I do wonder.
Presumably meant chagrin.
If the circle you're listening to are "recent grads" stop listening to them.

They don't know how the industry works or what it needs, few of them them know how the technology works or what it's realistic near-term prospects are let alone the long-term ones, and none of them have lived long enough to understand the pace of a technology moving from discovery through to maturity and commercialization.

If you look to your experienced seniors instead of your peers, you'll discover two things:

1. They don't respect most contemporary juniors because of the industry boom and are happy to see most of you scare yourselves off

2. They're narrowing in on a familiar, respectful appreciation of recent content generators and their potential for assisting some basic use cases (highly valuable technology!) and are increasingly of the opinion that both the hype and fear of Q1/2023 was largely market manipulation by VC's trying to squeeze another boom out as money was tightening
I love when I can read something and identify the guy who's been interested in the topic for decades.
Bad blockchain forensics convict the user of a Bitcoin mixer – as its operator
The F-35 program was developed with the principle of concurrency in mind. The first aircraft rolled off the production line before the majority of the parts were finalized. Think of it as the first build from your CI/CD pipeline.

The benefits are similar to the reasoning behind setting up CI/CD in software. They are just more significant, as production takes a while to ramp up when it comes to complex hardware.
Thank you! Cactus system looks neat, and there should be no issues with strict CSP. I will try to implement it as well.

There is also another interesting approach via emails https://spenc.es/writing/email-as-a-commenting-system/#how-r....
There are plenty of competing niche apps doing pretty much that. xkcd.com/927 applies here.
Part of the design brief for the F-35 is to be a battlefield C&C for drones in the future. So the pilot would be the controlling authority in the battle space for allowing weapons free, etc.

No idea if that will come true, but it was absolutely one capability briefed. I'm not a project participant, but I was peripheral both during development and early operational stages .
> Can someone explain what purpose a manned fighter jet serves in the age of UCAV?

We’re not yet in the age of UCAVs that can match, tactic for tactic, a human pilot in a military context. We’re getting there. But not yet.
This is helpful thank you. There's always some luck.

I have a PhD in CS, and lots of experience in optimization and some in throughput/speedups (in an amdahl sense) for planning problems. My biggest challenge is really getting something meaty with high constraints or large compute requirements. By the time I get a pipeline set up it's good enough and we move on. So it's tough to build up that skillset to get in the door where the big problems are.
Heh, Apple Computer also made the iPhone. Everything since launch has been incremental change, not innovative.

Except Airpods. They're pretty sweet.
Your point being? The horses were replaced alright, carriage drivers are thriving ever since.
If there's an easily discoverable code to get free stuff, yes it should be free forever. That's not theft but rather stupidity.
Migrating to this no stop merging scheme seems like it would be safer than changing all intersections from traffic lights to roundabouts where the majority of the population (e.g. America) has never seen a roundabout.
Mostly unrelated: are there any good weather apps that get and can visualise an ensemble forecast?
chagrin
/shə-grĭn′/

noun
A keen feeling of mental unease, as of annoyance or embarrassment, caused by failure, disappointment, or a disconcerting event.
"To her chagrin, the party ended just as she arrived."
Vexation; mortification.