Saying Facebook advertising doesn't work is like saying display ads don't work. Sure, the closer you are to the transaction the more value you provide:

- Facebook: CPM - bill boards : consumer in the position to buy, but not given it much thought

- Google: CPC - yellow pages : consumer in the position to buy and is actively looking

- Groupon: CPA - re-seller : consumer has decided what to buy and is purchasing

But whilst Groupon can provide more value, the pool of potential consumers it can reach is smaller. Same with Google (informational queries only). Facebook reaches the consumer in the very early stages of the purchase-funnel, before there is clear "intent". Same as bill-boards, display ads will always have value - after all advertising is about making us want something we haven't already planned to buy, otherwise its wasted cash (think groupon vouchers sold to existing customers). And whilst the conversation rate (clicks) on Facebook ads will naturally be lower, there are many more customers at the pre-intent stage (everyone in the world).

Sure a display ad for a Ford may not have great immediate conversion rate (clicks). What about a bill-board or a magazine ad? Yet do they have no value? If I would be considering purchasing a car within the next year, but not actively searching for one, then an image of some appealing product would actually get stuck in my head, and when I come to search for a car on some price comparison site - it just might be a Ford I saw a few weeks ago.

Each of these models have issues though:

- Groupon - a large number of buyers are already existing customers. GroupOn is only necessary because there isn't a platform for merchants to issue their own vouchers. If there was, they could advertise those vouchers on Facebook/Google and not pay groupon their brokering fee.

- Google - provide a free yellow-pages service. Instead of an alphabetical listing they aim to provide the "best" results first, so the only way to make money is to display ads next to those results for companies that haven't made it to the top. Why would anyone select those companies? The only reason I can think of is if these companies offer temporary aggressive discounts like on Groupon. If G displayed "sponsored ads" as banner ads so people wouldn't get fooled into thinking it's a result - would anyone still click on them?

- Facebook - unlike a magazine which has associated readership with a particular set of interests (eg car enthusiasts) - everyone is on Facebook. A niche social network for car enthusiasts would get a better ROI for GM then blasting their cars at everyone in the world. Need more single girls from NYC in the age group of 20-25 to join your dating site? Facebook will probably deliver great ROI there cause it can target ads by all these attributes.

Facebook has to expand its targeting capabilities, and that means gathering more data: my interests, my income, estimated net worth, what car I drive, where I live, who I have my mobile contract with, etc. If FB knows that I just graduated and got a job that pays enough to lease a Ford, and my commute time to work is over an hour - GM would probably get a decent ROI. If I visit enough car-related websites with the "Like" button on there, Facebook should know I'm interested in cars.

As Facebook builds a more detailed profile of me - it will deliver ads that predict my purchase intent, and in theory, that's a great position to be in.

In practice, I think people prefer to "pull" ads rather than having them pushed at us. The old broadcasting model of advertising was necessary when people couldn't poll the world for "whats the best car in my price range". As more information becomes available, people won't need companies telling them which products to buy. Think of Amazon - you don't purchase based on ads, but based on reviews and ratings from other people. Humans have become much more connected and knowledgable when making purchasing decisions, so ads matter less and less. I don't remember the last time I bought anything because of an ad, instead I read reviews left by other people. The advertising-intermediary is no longer necessary, businesses simply need to create great products. And Facebook is a great product - for sharing photos, keeping track of friends and killing some time. I wish they'd concentrate on making that product better, and I'd happily pay $1 per month to use it. Even at $1 per year - they would make as much as they currently do from 1 billion people. What will make me leave Facebook is the ads in my newsfeed, not the 1 buck a month I'd have to pay. My time is more valuable than $1 / hour, so if I decide to waste several hours on Facebook a week - then I can certainly afford to pay $1 / month.