skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
University of Toronto stats prof. Jeffrey S. Rosenthal wrote a nice paper called "Monty Hall, Monty Fall, Monty Crawl" (https://web.archive.org/web/20230706235720/https://probabili...) in Math Horizons (Sep 2008). It discusses two variations of the Monty Hall problem that are likely to be answered incorrectly by those who used flawed logic to arrive at the correct answer to the original:

> Monty Fall Problem: In this variant, once you have selected one of the three doors, the host slips on a banana peel and accidentally pushes open another door, which just happens not to contain the car. Now what are the probabilities that you will win the car if you stick with your original selection, versus if you switch to the remaining door?

> Monty Crawl Problem: As in the original problem, once you have selected one of the three doors, the host then reveals one non-selected door which does not contain the car. However, the host is very tired, and crawls from his position (near Door #1) to the door he is to open. In particular, if he has a choice of doors to open (i.e., if your original selection happened to be correct), then he opens the smallest number available door. (For example, if you selected Door #1 and the car was indeed behind Door #1, then the host would always open Door #2, never Door #3.) What are the probabilities that you will win the car if you stick versus if you switch?
Do you think that given the context of the puzzle – about a US game show, printed in a US paper that the question is being asked in many developing countries?

Or are you looking to find fault with something for the sake of finding fault?
It's rare that Stratechery would use such strong wording: quoting 1984 and calling for the exit of key company employees.

Ben actually gave Google lots of credits in a previous article about Gemini's image generation. He attributed the mess to Google's intention to avoid criticism. I think it's the opposite: some Google employees feel that they are so righteous that they ought to "align" everyone else to think in their way -- a pure evil. Or in Ben's words: anti-evil.
There's no need to root. Installing any app outside play store is a matter of clicking 2 buttons.
Kodi is trash on Android TV though, it’s easily the worst UI I’ve ever had the misfortune to use in my whole life.

It might work better on other platforms, I hope.
I think importantly, the "Monty Hall Problem" as described is different from how any iteration of the Big Deal at the end of Let's Make a Deal is actually run. Hall himself recognized this and mentioned it in a NYT interview in the 90s. It's paywalled, but the excerpt is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Hall understood the problem, giving the reporter a demonstration with car keys and explaining how actual game play on Let's Make a Deal differed from the rules of the puzzle.

When I first heard about the puzzle, I struggled with the solution precisely because I kept making assumptions about the puzzle based on my knowledge of the show. It wasn't until I thoroughly read the question, setting aside those assumptions, that I realized it is materially different from the show and I was able to really understand the solution.
They might not having governing power, but these opposition parties, as well as NGOs like Greenpeace had a lot of propaganda power that they used for evil.
> So RLHF is the attempt to correct for the biases on the internet.

...or it can be used to reinforce a specific ideology. Completely dependent on who does the RLHF and what their motivations are.
Show HN: This is Not a Dinosaur
I know that it's all configurable, what I meant is that some DNS providers may apply a long TTL by default, and it may be desirable to let users of Triweb know about this possible source of confusion.
Can I paste links in replies here? I wrote an article about the AI bubble a few weeks ago.
people do not need a valid or logical reason to be outraged ;)
I think making the assumption that account IDs won’t leak is the problem. It’s safer to assume that someone out there already has a directory of account IDs to buckets and that your efforts are better expended on other things, like actual secrets.
On Android you can install PWA's from the App Store, no reason why Apple couldn't also support it.
The complexities of human interaction implies that every system will fail to take into account realities. It's a sociological version of Gödel's incompleteness theorems - either the system is comprehensive and inconsistent, or it's consistent but not comprehensive.

Even so, if every model will fail, which one minimizes the quantity and quality of failure? The solution still seems to be, "let's be aware of our system, whether formal, informal, or somewhere in between, and be conscious designers of our interactions with others in the social organization of software development."

It requires system-level thinking, which at face value, appears to be something that engineering folks would love to sink their teeth into.

At the very least, Agile recognizes that time, features, and effort exist in relation to each other, and that if one[effort] is held constant, social interactions are constrained in a number of important ways.
> "Freedom of speech is under attack in Texas," declared Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott at the bill signing. "There is a dangerous movement by some social media companies to silence conservative ideas and values. This is wrong and we will not allow it in Texas."

Should tell you all you need to know.
Did you read the article?

Have you looked into what LLMs can do beyond more quickly implement a templating engine?
The link is broken for me on Brave browser. Here's the link that works

https://stratechery.com/2024/gemini-and-googles-culture/
Do not forget that when you look at your Steam profile;

https://steamcommunity.com/id/[username]/games/?tab=all

that you own none.

Zero

You own a license which can be revoked and you - currently - have no recourse.

https://gog.com is one alternative, I am sure others here know more.
Is Superset a decent tool if you're just a single person doing data analysis? Say I have a handful of sqlite databases, and just want to be able to develop some queries / charts. I was looking into Tableau / Power BI / Superset, and all of them seemed pretty heavyweight for a single user, and none of them seemed super easy to get setup locally.

Any recommendations for a good piece of software for the single user case? Or a more convenient way to run the heavyweight tools?
This made me think of literally an office, and The Crimson Permanent Assurance. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Crimson_Permanent_Assuranc...

It is quite a story, though. I struggled to wrap my head around them carrying him off the building. With the detail of the rope, it made more sense.
I agree that it's opaque and that's why I said that AI can be the ULTIMATE bubble.
Yes, for the avoidance of doubt - we got the OK from AWS to publish this research
If you want the search term for this, it's "collation", since this is one of the odder such terms if you don't already know it. Here's Too Much Information about Unicode collation: https://www.unicode.org/reports/tr10/
So this is for AWS style hosting, and there is no pricing info.

I am interested in this and will be someone could be pitching this to many others, but I want it with cpanel cloud hosting not aws/git/whatever.
Tableau is the best, most powerful, most mature of the three, most feature complete and easiest of the three. I think they give you a 30 day trial.

This is a single user application, unless you make it part of your built application.
> Yes, there have been sporadic bayonet charges in recent times. But they've become extremely rare.

Bayonet charges yes, but a bayonet (or in modern times, more like fastening a knife to the assault rifle) can be nice to have as a sort of last-ditch thing in a close-quarters situation.
So true. Disclaimer, I haven't lived there full time since 2006, but back then one of my points of pride about living in Australia was the idea that you could go to the pub with people of opposite political/social persuasions and have a positive/light/good natured talk, debate, argument about them with such things over some beers.

Here in the US, now though? There are huge swathes of people who will say, with all seriousness, "I'd rather be dead than be friends with a liberal/etc." It's so polarized. Not just teasing/smart ass as outright abusive labeling.
At what point does graverobbing become archaeology?
If you deposit a check for which you have no receivable or sale, what entry do you make in the accounting system?
The crux of the problem is not that memory management is difficult, it’s that with unsafe languages it is dangerously error prone. In the 70s and 80s most machines were considerably more resource constrained and either on closed networks or not networked at all. In today’s world where everything is connected to 24/7 high speed internet these are risks that just aren’t worth taking for most new software projects.
I wonder what it will take to convince people to separate their core identity from meat consumption. At this point pretty much everyone knows what’s going on in these horrible farms, and knows the climate impact. At this point there are also lots of plant based proteins available in many forms and flavors. Yet people still seem to get viscerally offended if you suggest that eating meat is an inherently evil act, and I don’t foresee throwing more charts at them ever changing their mind.
> the price of running such old cpus for say the last (say, 4?) years would have been higher than buying new+new runtime costs

I don't think this is true, because the old chips don't use more power outright[1][2][3]. In fact in many cases new chips use more power due to the higher core density. The new chips are way more efficient because they do more work per watt, but like I said in my previous comment you aren't paying for a unit of work. The billing model for the cloud providers is that of a rental: you pay per minute for the instance.

There's complexity here like being able to pack more "instances" (VM's) onto a physical host with the higher core count machines, but simply saying the new hardware is cheaper to run I don't think is clear cut.

[1]: https://cloud.google.com/compute/docs/cpu-platforms#intel_pr...

[2]: https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/products/sku/93792/i...

[3]: https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/products/sku/231746/...
You may be getting 100x value out of your 30 bucks.

Is that the only variable that one needs to consider to gauge if this is bubble territory?
This is a false dichotomy. There is a deep chasm between "publish everything", and "this is a secret", called operational security.

Any time a topic like this comes up, there are people on this forum that try to apply the "security by obscurity does not work" principle to every security topic under the sun, when in reality, that principle really only applies to the world of cryptography. In meat space, where humans operate on plaintext, keeping a secret is a very valid approach to some topics. This is why things like NDAs exist.
It's a shame the phrase "black box" exists in machine learning when it could have been "black bubble".
How does this compare to chisel?
Fair enough. I personally would have a hard time spotting an outsized lost opportunity value with confidence, if it existed.

It feels, though, that this argument could (maybe a be little too easily) be applied to any new industry sector, in horse-vs-car fashion.
A hacker can enumerate the resources of and access to an account by using its account ID. Many AWS customers incorrectly configure resources such that any other AWS customer can access things in their AWS account; for example, some 3rd party providers tell customers to configure access for the 3rd party, that can lead to wide-open access for anyone who knows the customer's account ID. If the cloud admins don't know what they're doing it can be very easy to screw up and not realize it.

It's sort of like giving someone your IP address. By itself it's not enough to hack someone. But if your host is insecure, it sure makes it easier knowing exactly where to attack.
> On the other hand, I'm currently dealing with an AMD system which seems to randomly hard reboot every couple of days, as if someone pressed the power button for 5 seconds.

I had this actually with my Silverstone cased HTPC. Reboots several times shortly after bootup. Random. Turns out the power button was actually defective. Who would have guessed that.
Physical SIMs behave the same, but most people use SIM cards from specific countries rather than global SIMs, which are a niche business product not oriented towards consumers.

When you use a local SIM card you (almost?) never get LBO. Note that sometimes this is a feature, e.g. you can sometimes get internet in China this way.

The point, however, of eSIMs is to be "better" than your home SIM.

eSIMs usually offer a better price than your home SIM (while travelling), but they rarely offer better performance. In fact they often offer worse performance, because they often have a single POP in some weird country that is further way than your home country.

Global SIM providers, both physical SIM and eSIM have more POPs, often in the country you are travelling, or at least closer to it than your home country. Until recently these providers were out of reach of most people, since they did not sell directly to consumers, but now some of them offer eSIM, albeit at a higher price than the competition.

To answer your question though, unless the eSIM provider tells you under which conditions it has LBO, you can't know except experimentally, but that test has to be done from a specific location. They might have LBO only from some countries or from some network. For example, now I am in Austria and Truphone seems to be routing through Germany, which technically is not local, but it's still far closer than Israel or New Zealand (!!) that some cheap eSIM providers go through. bne seems to route directly through Austria though, beating Truphone in latency and even beating my local SIM in latency.

The good news is that many resellers cheaper than Truphone are actually using Truphone's backbone, but unfortunately they don't advertise than making it really hard to shop around without burning money for tests.

YMMV though.
QuickConnect has had serious security issues in the past, and I recommend very strongly against enabling or using it.
Lag-Llama: Towards Foundation Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
Other variables is basically what I was asking for, in the first sentence of my comment.
> This is the closest we've ever had to multiple large respected tech companies selling "snake oil" a cure all.

The problem with this take is you can deliver real results. At current $dayjob we do the very dumbest thing which is text -> labels -> feedback -> fine_tune -> text... and surface them as part of our search offering and it's rocketed to the most useful customer feature in less than 6 months of rolling it out. Customers define labels that are meaningful to them, we have a general-purpose AI classify text according to those labels. Our users gleefully (which is shocking given our industry) label text for us (which we just feed into fine_tuning) because of just how fast they can see the results.

Like it's as grug brain as it gets and we bumbled into a feature that's apparently more valuable to our users than the rest of the product combined. Folks want us to sell it as a separate module and we're just hoping they don't realize it's 3 LLMs in a trenchcoat.
> That sounds (potentially) sleazy.

Pretty sure it's as simple as posting in your general slack channel "@here we posted a new article to HN, go upvote and write a comment"
Also, outside of making chatbots and waifus there's a lot of hard tech problems waiting for ai type solutions.
With the way NVIDIA is moving and how it's seeding AI startups, you could be right about them actively trying to do this. But there is a reality beyond our ability to predict it..
... how did I not know this existed.

That is exactly how we are setup, the amount of time I just spent going account by account looking for a specific resource.

Thank you! I have long wondered why it didn't exist, and apparently it did...
> another group said “its the stimulus money in everyone’s hands, exclusively!”

I mean even as recently as last month you have politicians on the right saying that people are even now "hoarding" stimulus checks, or are still living large on them.

$3,600. In 2020. That's a generous definition of hoarding. And an extremely generous definition of "living large".
No, I'm making the pooint that in many parts of the world, a goat is more valuable than a car because of the lack of car infrastructure.
We know how to store it safely though melt the radioactive material into glass ingots and store them in stainless steel barrels at the bottom of old mineshaft in geologicly stable dry areas like yukca mountain. But NIMBYs wont let us. The fear of leaking containment vessels goes back to early days of nuclear such as the Hanford site. Yes thats a horrible mess and a Superfund site. It also dates back to the Manhattan project and waste from the first nuclear pile. We have learned a bit more since the 1940's.
A lot of people offload responsibility or their preconceptions onto math and logic without being consciously aware they've done so.

There was a discussion here a week ago that essentially distilled the entire existence of the Sentinelese people into measurable metrics. The argument assumed that what's measurable is worth measuring.

It's this kind of intelligence absent from wisdom that makes talking with logicmaxxed folks so frustrating.
Maybe C++ will be like asbestos: "Don't build with it. Wear PPE while removing it. And if it's not doing anything, for god's sake, don't touch it!"
The people who use these open models are doing it because they find them useful. That's already plenty of benefit for them. The "ecosystem play" of benefiting from volunteers' mods to open models is certainly a benefit for the model trainer. This fact doesn't eliminate the benefit of people being able to use good models.
It's currently available as a subdomain of my personal site, since I have not yet finalized the domain for this project. However, each user's page will be at a path of the primary domain (e.g. example.com/moshe). `/ideas` is not supported at a sub-path (e.g. example.com/moshe/ideas).

I will be supporting custom domains, so I could support `/ideas` only for those sites.

Other options include redirecting/rewriting your personal `/ideas` path to this product. Or, offering subdomains (e.g. moshe.example.com/ideas)
Package Dependency Hell
Even the opposition party is for this nonsense.
As if invading a country was justified if what they do in their own borders is something you don't like.

you are barking at the wrong tree here
And most importantly we trust money to not only be paper or bits
i was mugged once, got jumped from behind by about 4 people and beat up pretty good, idk about anyone else but getting hit really hard in the back of the jaw with a fist is not something you instantly shake off and respond to like in the movies. I went down like a load of bricks and it took 30 sec for me to figure out what was even happening. That whole time I was getting kicked and hit more. By the time i was even capable of getting to my feet it was over and my pockets were empty.
I have looked at what they could do in 2017, 2020, 2022, and 2024. It's incredibly foolish to assume that the tech is stagnant to the point of still just being a "template engine implementer" decades from now, much less even a year from now.
I haven't heard any news regarding this incident where one person surreptitiously poisoned 112,000 people with fentanyl, which is what's implied by the responsibility in your narrative. Got a link?

Or if you're trying to imply that every person remotely related to the drug market is jointly and severely responsible for every person who dies using fentanyl, that is so far from the American conception of individual freedom and personal responsibility I don't know that there is common ground to be had.

Also as far as I can tell, very few people are setting out to deliberately do fentanyl itself. So that would point to the problem being the complete lack of otherwise standard product regulation, which also stems from prohibition.
How Mistral AI is challenging giants with its new large language model and chat
>> The game would be reduced to "does Monty feel like gifting you a car or a goat today".

But, in fact, that is the way the real show worked. He was more likely to give you a car when he hadn't given away any cars for a while. And Marilyn's description of the problem included no information about whether or not Monty
offered to swap doors rarely, frequently, or always, or about the previously observed outcomes depending on whether or not the contestant took the bait. And she surely did not say that Monty was a robot and had no interest in what happened on his show.

The way the game actually worked is like how poker and life work until proven otherwise. Every high-stakes game has a sucker, and if you do not know who is the sucker, it is you. Read the story in which a NY Times reporter interviewed Monty about the controversy and you will learn how it really worked.
Thank you! And thanks for suggesting and checking Math.clz32, it makes sense that would be fast as it's a single instruction vs a pile of bit twiddling.

I wonder what OP was measuring.
Gosh, I really miss that DOS text-based UI. Reminds me of my old reliable PS/2, which I kept using up until about 1997!
My comment was rebuttal against the overall opinion of the OP. The user was saying that NYC, and the US in general, had become frightening and dystopian. As someone who lives here, I refute that.

If you want to get into a petty argument over details of what I said, then you're missing the point.
A Python script that replies STOP, then START to SMS spammers until they broke
An open source project with a mission of ending SMS spam by wasting spammers time and money.
I think it also seeks to minimize democracy itself, in favor of anarchy wherever possible, if not entirely.
That's correct, the premise of the show was more Monty Hall doing something to challenge the contestant. That's probably why people missed the problem's premise where he always opens a goat door.
Apple's decision to drop iPhone web apps comes under scrutiny in the EU
I'm covering the problem statement. I'm ignoring the cases where Monty revealed a car because it didn't happen. You can't chalk it up as a win or a loss, because it didn't happen.

It's always "You choose a door, the host reveals a goat behind another door. Do you switch?" The scenario does not include him revealing the car.

If he intentionally chooses a goat, switching gets the car 2 times out of 3.

If he chose randomly and just happened to choose a goat, switching doesn't matter. It's 50/50.

Of course, these aren't the only scenarios. As others have mentioned, if Monty can decide whether to reveal what's behind a door, he can act maliciously and only reveal a goat if you've already selected a car, and switching will always make you lose. Without knowing these constraints, a single answer isn't knowable, as you mentioned before.
In other news: crimes should not be committed, and car accidents are outlawed
> You own a license which can be revoked and you - currently - have no recourse.

Correct.

In USA it’s all thanks to ProCS v. Zeidenberg:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ProCD,_Inc._v._Zeidenberg

As far as I understand based on reading that wiki if company writes in that license that they can take away your ability to use software then you don’t own software that you buy.

People need to boycott online only, server dependent games.

However, in other countries this may be illegal and needs to be challenged.