I've lived in Berlin for fifteen years now. My view is very different from what this article is portraying. Germany definitely has issues. Some of them are short term issues. Some of them self inflicted. And others have been issues for a long time. But all of these are fixable. All it takes is change.

Change is hard for Germans but if you look at their history, you see that that wasn't always the case. They are hard workers and they have a culture of just getting shit done and being very proud of their ability to do so. This is part of their culture and value system.

The wave of conservatism that has crippled the country for decades is being challenged by a younger generation that is starting to take over from the baby boom generation that is the root of this problem. They inherited a booming economy and have been reluctant to change because they never had to. And now they are old and incapable of change, like most old people.

But that generation is on the way out. Most people that were employed before the cold war ended are now closing in on retirement age. Another ten years and the working force will consist exclusively of people that are used to using computers, never knew a Germany that wasn't united, and have modern ideas about how to run a company. Or indeed the country.

Germany has three challenges:

1) Infrastructure is a disgraceful mess and it needs fixing. Roads, rails, and energy sector. All of it.

2) There's an energy crisis that was caused by the Russians. Which is accelerating the trends that are causing the next challenge.

3) There's a lot of old industry that is becoming less relevant. Coal, steel, ICE cars, etc.

The fix for each of these challenges is addressing the first challenge. Doing so will fix all their issues and create a lot of jobs and economic opportunities. And unlike the US and China, Germany is not crippled by debt. They've been frugal and reluctant to spend. That's actually the main reason the infrastructure is a mess. But their credit rating is awesome. They are a bit slow and indecisive right now but with the right leadership, they can make a lot of changes in a short amount of time.

My prediction is that they will have largely cleaned up the energy sector by 2035-2040 at great cost. This is a good thing. All of that spending will flow directly into their economy. Spending lots of money is a great way to jump start an economy.

As a result, they will no longer be dependent on fossil fuel. This will really suck for economies whose main business is exporting that stuff. Related industries will have largely adapted or died off by then. Steel production will move to places where renewable energy is cheap and plentiful (i.e. not Germany). Part of the car industry will be sold off to the Chinese and the rest will have transitioned to battery electrical. This will be very tough for Germany but there's very little they can do to stop this at this point. The same conservatism that cripples their country is also in charge of these industries.

However, once the new energy sector start booming, there will be a lot of re-shoring of manufacturing that is currently happening in China. Formerly labor intensive production processes will transition to high tech and largely automated processes. Germany does high tech stuff extremely well. Both the Americans and the Chinese build EVs using equipment that is made in Germany. You look around in a Tesla factory and they have all the best stuff. Made in Germany. The key insight here is that Germany already makes all the things that they need for re-shoring manufacturing. Chips, machines that make chips, tools, machines, etc.

In short, they have the means and the money to do what needs doing, which is fixing their infrastructure. All they need to do is start doing that.

The key blocker for that is their bureaucracy. They are hopeless paper and process fetishists and stuck in their old ways. I often make fun of my German friends over this and they all are a bit ashamed and embarrassed about this. They are well aware and the next generation of politicians is going to have to do things differently in order to get the confidence of voters. Which is why they are all trying to outdo each other with plans on just how to do this.