skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> instead of an absurd point estimate like "Michelle Obama has a 6.90% of winning the election"

A probability distribution is defined over a set of outcomes. If “Michelle Obama winning” is one independent, categorical outcome, then there is one probability associated with that outcome.

> you'd get something like "the probability of Michelle Obama winning the election is between 7.0% and 0.01%"

Stacking another layer of probability on top of probability distributions still results in only one final distribution for prediction purposes.

I think maybe what you’re trying to capture is how your “confidence” about a prediction ties into the evaluation of the reward or penalty. This would just be modulated by adjusting how wide/uniform your probability distribution is and the amount that you bet, but perhaps the websites could add some tools to help people visualize this better.
Here's a page that gives the range for each rank [1] to give an idea what they can make before they leave and start contracting. Click on a particular rank and you'll get a page with a slider for years to see how pay progresses within that range over time.

A general makes the most, $221 900 per year.

That site also has pay for non-military jobs. Lots of interesting stuff there.

For example here's their page for computer science [2]. Average government computer scientists makes $142k. There's a graph showing the distribution and it is very uneven--looks like you can make pretty good pay or pretty terrible pay. 5 times as many computer scientists at the FAA (250) than at the IRS (53). 180 at the FBI. Nearly 1500 computer scientists total.

Some surprised me. The government has a little over 1000 archeologists [3]. I guess that explains where all those other thing came from in the warehouse they stored the Ark in!

[1] https://www.federalpay.org/military/air-force/ranks

[2] https://www.federalpay.org/employees/occupations/computer-sc...

[3] https://www.federalpay.org/employees/occupations/archeology
Costumers can decide I would assume. Most likely you install you install some Kubernetes and then just have multible VMs distributed across the rack. And then run multible Pods in each node.

VM per container seems like a waist unless you need that extra isolation.
The Smart Money Is Buying All-Time Highs – and Why You Should Too
Thank you! When I read OpenAI I was thinking would be going through them. This revelation is perfect timing for me… keeping user data even more private. Excellent!
It's a decent chunk of work. It's a whole lot more work to do it well.

There's no doubt about that. You might even learn a thing or two about your shell in the process. Is that considered a bad thing nowadays?
This is one of those situations where a theory reasoned from first principles fails to match reality.

Back in the 20th C., drivers frequently took amphetamines in order to spend more time driving. Forged log books are a significant incentive for the development of electronic logs. I've seen many stories of drivers told to break hours-of-service regulations by dispatchers.

And the hours of service regs are insane (https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/regulations/hours-service/summary-... - keep in mind "on duty" != "driving" but waiting for loads and such, which the driver is not paid for) largely to maximize the number of hours driven.
> Anthony Fauci has never struggled to speak his mind. But now that he has left government, he is finally speaking at least some of the truth about government policies and Covid. For instance, the six-feet rule for social distancing “sort of just appeared” without a solid scientific basis. That’s one of the admissions that Members of Congress say the former National Institutes of Health potentate made this week in two days of closed-door testimony to the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic.

> It’s not news that the six-feet rule lacked scientific rhyme or reason. A BMJ article in August 2020 explained as much. It noted that the virus’s transmissibility depends on many factors, including ventilation, the host’s viral load and symptoms, and the duration of exposure, among other things.

> Officials nonetheless promoted the arbitrary rule because they didn’t trust Americans to understand scientific nuance or, for that matter, anything. Businesses, churches and schools that weren’t forced to close had to spend money reconfiguring their operations to comply with these government guidelines.

https://archive.is/2vwWT

There were silver linings to COVID. One was the rise of remote and hybrid working arrangements across a much wider swatch of the economy. Another is the ruined reputation of "experts", who used "Trust the Science" as carte blanche to enact all manner of unscientific and destructive policies.

The government's censorship of social media platforms, the lockdowns, middling bureaucrats becoming petty tyrants... None of this will happen again, because society will be much more skeptical of so-called "experts".
I've got the soundcore q45 and battery display works fine on iphones and macbooks.

sound quality is potato level in calls, though.
#defines all over the place as well as decidedly unhygienic macros. Serves them right for still using 'C'. The list of CVEs is endless for that stuff, entire encyclopedias full of them.
Won’t that degenerate the battery at a much quicker rate?
And he runs an scr file from an email? Huh
Ye it is strange that such anti-intuitive management style pays off. I have no clue why.

I got this feeling that what's most important for a Big Bad Company is to be able to get well of with management of other Big Bad Companies to be able to land contracts.
> Remember how MS wasn’t doing all this shit 5-10 years ago?

You mean just these dark patterns with their browser, right?

I may have written about this a dozen times on HN, but there was a time when Exchange refused to play nice with anything that wasn't an Outlook client. Even nowadays, Outlook doesn't support half a dozen standards that would allow better interoperability with other calendars and clients.

Embrace, extend, extinguish is not something Microsoft has reneged of since the origin of the phrase back in the 90s.
Non paywall: https://archive.is/xn4Ln
> Does China just tell Evergrande's creditors "too bad"?

that sounds inline with standard operating procedures.
IR sensors are just cameras, also IR can look through some clothes
You're telling me that builidng housing – keeps housing prices lower
The AGPLv3 only requires you to make your modified source code available to people that you choose to give a copy of the binary to or allow to use on your computer over the network. You never have to make anything available to the original owner if you don't let them use your modified version.
HK is where the foreign debt is.

This is freeing the Chinese business of its obligations of $25B in foreign debt.

Presumably that makes for a better business.

Who knows. Evergrande could easily be worth less than -$25B. No one wants to buy a business worth negative money. But it's definitely worth less negative money now.
Is this astroturfing by Walmart? Why are there two stories on the front page about how much Walmart pays people?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39176877
Frame material doesn't affect comfort. The extremely stable diamond shape of the frame makes all material differences go away. Where material matters is the seat post (I think carbon has the most flex though and should be most comfortable). My racing bike is steel by the way. Not because of comfort, but because it's pretty beautiful handcrafted in Italy with cromo velato.
As they say if it's free you are the product!

More seriously Meta is experimenting with AI and the cost of $5m you've come up with is as good as R&D, its set to depreciate in value rapidly as the iteration on the models improve, and its just a step along the way. There is no way to monetise it realistically with the business model Meta currently has which keeps developers in their own ecosystem.
Carbon MTBs are pretty strong. Just don't clamp the frame so much you are crushing it and avoid direct rock hits, which will damage any material anyway.
> any foreigner who lent Evergrande money thinking this wasn't a huge risk is a moron.

Or they are very smart while investing your money. Check your country's pension fund, see who manages it and what they invest in. Or better yet, don't.
Both the OP's URL and the one linked by @xnx work for me, could it have been temporary? Or maybe a caching issue? (And my region's YouTube CDN servers aren't affected?) Could be Google are actually removing this but A/B testing it first?
Had the same thoughts about "Bike retrogrouch" a while back. And with more bloggers and people after that. Then I realized opinionated people tend to be noisy.
But keep in mind, even the least-safe driver will get 99% of the loads to their destination. Dealing with accidents is a cost-of-doing-business issue for large companies.
I enjoyed the article and learned some things reading it. Re-reading my comment, it could have been worded better so I'm sorry about that. As I mentioned in another comment here, I'm not a writer, just an admirer of Murakami's, so if this suggestion contradicts what is common or best practice for authors I hope you'll ignore it.
I'm curious what you think the vibration dampening properties of steel are. It's very notable to me that high quality steel bikes almost always come with a carbon fork if not suspension and that tuning forks are made of steel according to wikipedia. To me steel is in the "resonator" category, not something that dampens vibration particularly well.

I also wonder if people like the ride quality of steel because, like very thin high pressure tires, it carries high frequency vibrations that _feel_ fast but science tells us clearly are not good for going fast.
Refactor Party: Could a dynamic new political party start with a Git repository?
USB-C controllers negotiate the correct voltage and amperage.
You are describing the HR person's ego trip.

That person should be fired, for being unprofessional and for inability to adapt to a trivial non-standard situation ("normally we test the applicant's technical competency with a take-home test; now it already has been established; so I need to stop wasting everybody's time and spend my time doing something actually useful".)

Obviously, HR could still be useful in establishing a culture fit, but even then it's pretty much a formality since the CEO worked with and recommended the guy.
Post crash many planes have swept-back wings
I really enjoyed the market "Will either Biden or Trump concede within 2 weeks of the election?"

As I recall "no concession" was priced at like 40c, at the same time that Biden winning the election was priced at something like 55c-60c. I was pretty sure Trump was not going to concede, period, so this was just a substantially cheaper version of betting "Biden wins". And as it turned out, it also had the advantage that it closed much, much sooner than the actual election market -- thus freeing up my funds to go into those other markets that hung at 85c or so till December.
Overton window is moving. If they are not doing mass identification now, they will in a couple of years.
> Prime Minister Rishi Sunak suggested adult smokers trying to quit would still have access to alternatives like vapes under the proposals

How does this work? So I have to talk to a doctor to get my Bubblegum Ice disposable?
> Most of the practical bundling setups I've seen use a tool like Babel or Esbuild, which doesn't do any type checking - instead the type checking is done as a linting/testing check beforehand, the same as with Python.

I think the difference is really one of UX (or DX I guess) and availability: Yes, if you already work with a toolchain, there won't be a difference. However, lots of people don't. If you just use the language runtime on its own and want to get your program running with the minimum possible effort, then for typescript, you'll run the transpiler and feed the resulting JS to a browser or nodejs vm; for python, you'll just run your program with the python interpreter directly.

The thing is that for the "minimum" typescript workflow, type checking is per default performed, while for the minimum python workflow it isn't. That you could also disable type checking for typescript or use a linter to get it done in python is besides the point - those are additional options and tools that you have to spend additional effort to activate - and you have to know about them in the first place. Someone who just has some basic skills in the language is unlikely to do so, so effectively, type checking for them is performed in typescript but not in python.
Huh. We got the story about how Walmart truck drivers make six figures, then this. What a coincidence! Did they call in a PR firm to try to convince people that Walmart isn't a terrible company?
It's not extreme metal, but if you've ever been to a guitar shredding performance or a prog rock show, you can attest that it's a sausage party.

On the other hand, male admiration can still increase reproductive fitness by generating wealth, fame and social contacts for the virtuoso.
Very useful, thank you very much for sharing.
Hard disagree. The whole concept of copyright is unnatural and technology evolution is showing its limits.

In the same way a writer reads books and use that knowledge to create more, an ai model can do the same.
You can easily get 5% growth and worse living standards.

Expand your balance sheet to pay everyone to dig a hole.

GDP goes up.

As long as you ignore debt, GDP doesn't really mean anything.

Look at China's debt.
How to land and convert your first defense pilots
His argument is that a t-shirt can be on the floor and there are stairs etc. But a truck could drop anything on the road, any sort of animal could cross the roads, sink holes could form in roads etc. I feel he is conflating what is often a problem for his robots with what is often a problem for autonomous vehicles. Rather than what each of them must be able to handle irrespecive of how often they happen. Then there is weather etc etc.
Thanks for sharing this report. According to it, Brave is on top. Just reinforces my decision.
What would Walmart possibly gain by astroturfing HN? Do you think they are recruiting software engineers as assistant managers?
You are not wrong that OpenStack is sort of similar in a sense, but the difference is that Oxide is a hardware + software product, and OpenStack is purely software.
Is that 5% growth? Or is that a piece of paper with a number "5" in it? There is a difference.
sure, and thanks for agreeing with my premise! but liberals are not really into stupid gambling games, so this "market" is inherently stocked with a limited supply of mindshare
Absolutely. Almost no kids smoke cigarettes (vaping non flavored varieties have almost no risk associated with it) and drunk driving is a shadow of what it used to be. Getting alcohol for someone under 21 is not child’s play either.
Pretty sure a DUI bars you from holding a CDL of any kind, not specifically a trucking license. I don't see a problem with that at all.
> Feel free to research some.

I tried! My search came up with *The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" topping the list which, while an amazing book, doesn't feel like what you had in mind...

What did you have in mind?
True. But carbon MTBs can last a decade of abuse.
No, it was a mod error (copy-paste failure or something like that - see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39170137).

Submitters can't change URLs once they've submitted.
Stainless steel does not rust too (maybe it does Zig?) but if I recall correctly the con about it is that it's a bit heavier than "normal" steel.

Still I'd love to have a classic-ish stainless steel bike with disc brakes.
GPT-4 beats most humans in ideation
Thank you for that. What a great short story. I could see SCP-033 being inspired by this.

I couldn't get the link to work in your URL but I found the story here: http://strangehorizons.com/fiction/the-secret-number/

They made it into a short film: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCE65wBcij8

I like how the hackernews post for "The Secret Number" has a post referencing SCP-033 and SCP-033 now has a post referencing "The Secret Number". They point at each other.
If advances in solar continue, yes. Currently, the IRA provides very lucrative investment and tax credits for green hydrogen projects (solar and wind powered electrolyzers). Power producers like AES are already building multi-billion dollar projects, and there are a lot more in the pipeline. One day the tax credits may not be needed for this to be economically feasible.

Companies like terraform industries are doing something similar, but creating natural gas. With enough cheap solar, all hydrocarbons are pretty much on the table as well.

It'll be a decade or more until this is scaled up and not dependent on subsidies.
Vaping (non flavored) vapes has basically a negligible impact on your health.
The problem with allowing an acquisition to proceed just to save the company being acquired from failing is you end up with deals being structured to intentionally to cause harm if the deal collapses

Look at what Kroger is doing with Albertson's for an example. If that merger fails, it's very likely Albertson's will go bankrupt because the shareholders looted the company of all their assets to ensure it can only survive if it's acquired

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/11/03/albertson...
> You get downvoted because you argue that Apple definitely has a great idea behind the change. [...] All you're doing is paying homage to Apple without contributing anything meaningful.

Yeah, no. Not at all. But if you still don't get that my comment has absolutely nothing todo with the design choice itself a t a l l , it's truly pointless.
If you're into languages and compilers and PL theory, you might really enjoy the "Alice" book (Foundations of Databases): http://webdam.inria.fr/Alice/
Yeah, I hate that. Firefox also removed http when editing in the address bar
SEE ALSO: curl --libcurl
Actual Unix. Wikipedia is pretty good: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illumos

> It is based on OpenSolaris, which was based on System V Release 4 (SVR4) and the Berkeley Software Distribution (BSD). Illumos comprises a kernel, device drivers, system libraries, and utility software for system administration. This core is now the base for many different open-sourced Illumos distributions, in a similar way in which the Linux kernel is used in different Linux distributions.
I'm sure many agree with your underlying point, but please don't fulminate like this on HN. This is in the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html.
>No way anyone computer-savvy would fall for something as cliché as this

The number of things it is truly appropriate to say this about approaches zero. Matthias has extensive "computer" experience (and that's an understatement). It's counter-productive to no-true-Scotsman the concept of a person who is "competent" or "savvy" with "computers" - the field is too large/complex, especially anything remotely security related. Just focus on reality, i.e. what actually happens. This happened.
amazing, now onto disabling edge in my network...
A Medium post isn't a source.

Your fortune article says PRICES are only down 2.4% (roughly the "official" stats).

Your other article is about T3 cities.
If DC took NYC by force.
There was a story on the front page yesterday about many software engineers considering career switch
I think we need something like copyright exemptions premised on an LLM equivalent of GPL. You can train the model on whatever, but if it includes copyrighted content, then you either have to release everything fully open (training data, code, weights) or pay to license the training data. Likewise, any fine-tunes used in a commercial setting inherit the same license and requirements. And outputs can’t be copyrighted.

This will of course never happen because of AI’s part in the new Cold War with China, but it seems the only way to equitably resolve all the theft and running roughshod over other people’s work that the current landscape twists itself into knots trying to justify.
I wonder if you could dedicate some of the probes to serving as a relay network stretching all the way back by only partially accelerating them so the bulk of the probes will go as fast as possible and then a tiny fraction will go a little slower and another tiny fraction slightly slower than those and so on so that they spread out into a chain as they go. Of course, you'd only need to do it that way if you had to launch them all within a short window. If you were to continuously launch probes then you could maintain an evenly spaced chain for as long as you could keep launching them.
my 25 year old aluminum hard tail begs me to share that while this is factually correct, the lifetime for an alloy bike frame isn't a real practical limitation, just a talking point.
But we’re talking about a coding LLM here. A single digit percentage reduction in accuracy means, what, one or two times in a hundred, it writes == instead of !=?
I find this interesting but I'm not sure I understand and I'd like to. Are you suggesting that there is a psychological aversion to prediction markets when the outcomes in question are as personal as politics? Would a similar analogy be, say, reluctance to the idea of finding one's romantic partner through a formalized process like algorithmic matchmaking?
Nicotine by itself is harmless besides the addictiveness. A nicotine addiction is not going to drastically affect your mental state or cause socially disruptive behavior like domestic violence or armed robbery so it’s really nothing to be concerned about.
yeah this isn't a real concern
“At first sight, when one comes upon it in its surprisingly rural setting, the Bell Telephone Laboratories’ main New Jersey site looks like a large and up-to-date factory, which in a sense it is. But it is a factory for ideas, and so its production lines are invisible.” — Arthur C. Clarke, science fiction writer, in his 1958 book, Voice Across the Sea.
>These AI systems have been built on the back of free labor for decades.

In practical terms, is that different from Google becoming a trillion-dollar company from its search offering?
How has it impacted their social life?

My experience with my kids (middle and high school age) is that online is "where" most kids socialize today and if I don't let my kids go there, I am socially isolating them.
I hope this is a bug and gets fixed.
The site never worked for me. "Watch later" a list of dead videos of which I can't even find out the names.
Since I found the feeds I use only RSS with Feedbro.
Well.. I will properly save a lot of time not watching youtube anymore.
I think if you (row)hammer hard enough, every DRAM will eventually flip a bit.
My mother was an OTR trucker during most of my teenage years, including driving for Walmart under contract (so not paid amazingly well, but regularly interacted with the Walmart employees at the DC in Tomah, WI). It's not always back breaking work, but access to (healthy) food is a major issue. For Walmart specifically, there's not much physical effort involved besides lowering the trailer landing gear, which is almost always done with a manual crank. The Walmart backroom staff handle unloading and the DC staff handle loading, which would be very very taxing to do constantly.
I don't like it's mandated by law (id check on the internet is a identity fraud disaster waiting to happen), but I'm copying this for my kids
How is Oxide for GPU-heavy workloads?
They could be paying a firm for generic astroturfing / publicity campaign. That PR firm could have HN as one of many communities they target by default. Walmart could be unaware and uncaring as to which communities, precisely, are targeted by the firm they hired for this. The PR firm might not put much effort into specifically tailoring their target communities for each and every campaign, but generally just follow a standard playbook, which might happen to include HN.