skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> I did fake Bayesian math with some plausible numbers

This is actually a great example of the deepest and most intractable issue with the Bayesian viewpoint: different observers with different priors can come to radically different conclusions, even if both did the math correctly. One can easily compose priors under which the jump in P(Lab-Leak) is much greater than the 20 - 27.5% jump Scott mentioned. And there's no principled way to argue that one prior is better than another, especially in cases like this, where there's no good reference class.

(update: I think this is a great essay and I strongly agree with the overall point)
Very cool! The deluge of cloud solutions are absolutely one of those things that can be a distraction from figuring out "What do I actually need the computer to do?".

Internally I try to promote solutions with the fewest moving cloud-parts, and channel the quiet wisdom of those running services way larger than ours with something like an sqlite3 file that they rsync... I know they're out there. Not to downplay the feats of engineering of huge distributed solutions, but sometimes things can be that simple!
how much media is involved, really?

backing up a laptop is something any competent tech can do for you.. make sure you get copies of media assets, like PNG or JPG. It is possible that you will have to abandon DreamWeaver in the near future, so you have to prepare for that.

In some ways this is simply a documentation task. You can copy the text from each page in an organized way, completely without DreamWeaver.. using the web browser and your favorite editor.
Credit cards and contactless payments alike are a far bigger form of control than phone OSes. Bank, government, and advertisers watching your purchases, building a profile, taking their cut, and banning any buyers/sellers they want. In real life, not just digital. If I were worried enough about control to use a FOSS phone, I'd for sure be paying with cash too. But I'm not.

Also, cell carrier will be tracking your location and giving that info out. Not sure if that can be avoided, but maybe a prepaid plan helps anonymize it.
> Unless you mean roads that have roofs of solar panels

This would be really cool and may make sense with cheap/efficient enough panels.

But of course, you have to solve the 11'8" problem wherever these things get installed.
> Also, more simply put, SCOTUS declining to review a case is a tacit (and somewhat weak) way for them to state, "the lower court is probably right about this and we don't think we need to get involved".

This is not the correct view. Every year SCOTUS passes on many cases they think are worthy but not worthy enough to justify taking up the court's limited time. It can't just be a "worthy" case. It has to present serious constitutional questions, represent a split between the circuit courts, or similar.

The federal court view is that the courts cannot and should not be the venue to solve all problems. Congress should get off its lazy butt and legislate.
Where his "discomfort" is "I don't want to do my job (at least with respect to AI, i.e. FSD, I'm willing to give him a pass on robotics, which is only because I feel that most non-Stans see it as vaporware) unless I'm given 92% more equity than I currently have."

Quite the threat.
That's really not what the article is about, it focuses heavily on the evolutionary history and adaptation of the orchid and talks very little about its resonance with the human experience.
Especially most banks and government sites. Why doesn't Social Security and the IRS have Yubi key 2FA?
A big part of the problem with how the similar rule is implemented in the UK is that determining status falls to the company hiring the contractor.

The employer is legally liable for lost tax revenue if they fail to determine status correctly.

The result: most employers decided that contractors were inside (treated like an employee for tax purposes with none of the benefits of employment) rather than risk getting it wrong.
I care more about peoples lives being better.

I didnt introduce this line of questioning. Learn to reread and maybe tjink a little more deeply about the good outcomes of automating intelligence.

You just have to be a complete moron to think more intelligence in the world is a bad thing.
Because it actively harms the users of the market, and we'd control the regulation in our favor if big companies didn't brainwash everyone.
Even if the store bought in no revenue at all, they'd still run it. The existence of the store sells lots of phones.
Lars Garshol* made a great summary of the particulary interesting points: https://nitter.net/larsga/status/1745837887197745409

* his independent research into Kveik (yeast) and Scandinavian farmhouse brewing detailed on his blog and several books over the last 5 year has been among the most meaningful contribution to beer culture (outside of academic/scientific) work in decades. His blog: https://www.garshol.priv.no/blog/
> best - piece of software I've ever payed for.

You know there's screenshot software that's better and free?
If it were me, I’d just rebuild the site manually on something like Squarespace (or maybe Shopify) by copying-and-pasting the text and downloading/uploading any images you want to keep. I didn’t see any interactive features in my brief browsing of the site, but if there are any, it would influence my choice of which service to use.

The hardest part technically seems like it will be transferring the domain name.
Awesome article! None of the videos played for me on mobile Safari, but the text descriptions were enough. I do a lot of Unity development and typically just lerp things with different easing curves. It's great to add PID to the toolbox for elements that are more procedural. Thanks for the sharing.
> they spend millions per year on lawyers and lobbyists to keep that position.

They paid lawmakers to keep the laws the way they want them to be.

Just so we're clear, if we were talking about some other country it would be called bribery.
To be honest; We need a "divorce/came-into-money-IPO/WTF do when tech couples split?" TECH DOCUMENTS (For all parties - but specifically their kids) thingy...
The coding models are all small because speed is crucial. If you need to wait 2 seconds for an autocomplete it becomes near useless.
> And, I don't think comparing the two is logical, for price (Da Vinci is $2,000,000)

What's the over-under on the $35K CyberTruck ever making it to market, instead of vague handwaving "sometime towards the end of 2025, maybe"?
But you have to be really careful to not confuse the 'value' of healthcare with the cost of healthcare.

- If my health insurance lists a benefit value of $1500/mo for PrEP, and has a sticker price of $500/mo in other countries (and out-of-pocket might be $15-$60), is the "value" of the care I receive 3x greater than that received by a similar person in Belgium? Is it 25x the value of the same care received by someone in Ireland?

- If the healthcare I receive includes GP visits needed to get a referral to a specialist to satisfy my insurance co, or extra tests to convince them that a procedure is necessary, is that "value" that I received?

- If 20-30% of healthcare costs are billing and administration, is that "value"?

Our employers aren't just stealing this money from us, but for-profit healthcare providers and health insurance companies and pharmacy benefit manager companies creating inefficiency to their benefit and to the harm of patients.

https://www.thebody.com/article/what-does-prep-cost-outside-...
That's not how it happened. Git wasn't even invented until 2005, and Thoughtworks released CruiseControl (the first packaged CI server) in 2001.

Hudson came along later (2005?) But that whole scene started on CVS and jumped to Subversion. CI was well established when git showed up.
That was my very first thought after reading the title! "Of course, or they would dance without rhythm!" ;)
I went through a simulation issue where I spent days on a problem, had a Microsoft engineer asking for logs and generally wasting my time, eventually found it to be a hp firmware limitation.

I wrote a page on my own blog about it. Was I a good netizen? Because I can only find reddit threads of people being unable to solve it with a google search.
Website isn't loading, we are all probably driving up her views way beyond normal. Hope she doesn't have traffic-based pricing.
> "developers ... should use a low-spec machine"

That is exactly what Michael Brown, founder of Central Point Software, insisted on back in the 1980's when they were producing the #1 selling PC software according to PC magazine.

An informed market also helped. A little bit earlier there was a comparison review published (same publication, IIRC) of the top spreadsheet programs (spreadsheets being the reason office workers were getting PC's). MBA Analyst was the best, in everything except speed, much better functionality than Visicalc, MS Multiplan or Lotus123, and only slower by a difference few users would notice without a stopwatch. MBA Analyst vanished in a flash after that article came out, and it found such a stable oblivion that it doesn't even show up on google nowadays.
> In the past, services I heavily rely on (e.g. Github), have updated their status pages immediately

Also in the past, other times GitHub has not updated its status page immediately.
So why had nobody released a CI server until Thoughtworks published CruiseControl in 2001?
> That's just it, nobody looking to get paid by OpenAI actually did any labor for OpenAI. They did labor for other reasons, and were happy with it

Nobody working on a new cancer drug actually did any work for me. They did labour for other reasons, and were happy with it.

There it is okay for me to steal their recipe and sell their cancer drug.
Oh the technology per se is definitely something amazing, that warrants more research. I was just referring to this question of the thread, of can this be a useful energy source for the earth in the near future? And I think no. Rather fusion, even though that will likely take some more decades at least. But a breakthrough with fusion seems possible, but I cannot think of a breakthrough with space beams, that can ignore the atmosphere, or gravity (the main constraints).
Reinventing Retail: The Novel Resurgence of Independent Bookstores (2020) [pdf]
Style is not copyrightable. Please make an actual effort to engage with copyright law and not just ask me smarmy questions because you think you are right because you've made no efforts past looking at things immediately in front of you.

https://letmegooglethat.com/?q=is+style+copyrightable
Bluetooth audio on windows. that's it. it just sucks and sucks all of the time
The Evolving Strategies in Streaming. The Future of Free Trials
Investing in R&D usually eliminates cheap.
Good q's

Here's another similar license: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39020271
I'm not sure if I'm doing the right math, but isn't 12% of Tesla worth around $60B?
> The biggest problem is theft. Not only is it easy to steal from self-checkout machines, it can be hard not to steal from them.

This is me. At a Walmart this weekend the machine booped instead of beeped, and I didn't get that meant it didn't scan, and dropped the item into a bag. An employee was watching and swooped right in and fixed it. But paying that much attention meant that she might as well have checked me out herself, probably a lot faster.

AI could change the economics soon, but apparently not yet.
That's the word's origin, not its current mathematical meaning. Also, number systems that are not base IIIIIIIIII have been used historically. That humans can only compute in a base that matches the number of fingers we have is a relatively recent myth.
I used to think of orchids as something exotic, then I realized there's over 20 species of orchids native to where I live in Northern California. Bog orchids, Lady's Slippers, Coralroots, Twayblades, Fairy Slippers, and the Phantom orchid, among others.
Annextimelog: Git Annex-Backed Time Tracking
Come back when you ask that about yourself.
that's preferable to people that give zero details
It is. I should've mentioned that I don't have access to that. But I can still hammer out correct SQL faster than I can prompt ChatGPT.
Anecdotally, I can say that I’ve definitely noticed a negative correlation between affiliate marketing and content quality, though I would be very interested in seeing a formal study of it.

Affiliate links create misaligned incentives between content creators and consumers. This includes on the products listed themselves, where the affiliate is incentivized to select the products that give the most kickback rather than the ‘best’ for the consumer. But it also includes the content itself. Affiliate links create incentive to (a) write reviews, where a site wouldn’t have bothered before; (b) churn out lots of content with lots of links, that can be picked up by search engines; and (c) to not invest much in the actual reviews, and instead generate quick, low-quality content, since the content creator doesn’t actually care about finding the “best” product (which takes lots of time and money to do correctly), only on having readers click their links.

This is why sites with names like Celeb Rumor Central have dozens of articles like “top 10 coffee makers 2024”. They just hire a freelancer to do a few quick Google searches for coffee makers, then churn out 10,000 word articles with sections like “the history of coffee” and “why do people drink coffee?” Then the actual review is “this machine is purported to boil water and drip it through coffee grounds, and has high ratings on Amazon (we may earn a small commission when you click a link on our site)”. Increasingly, they’re just using AI to do it, cutting out the cost of a freelancer.

In my personal opinion, affiliate marketing is one of the worst things to happen to the modern web, and the source of a ton of content farm SEO spam pages.
Very kind, thank you! (and everyone else too, many heartwarming replies)
I don't know specifically about your symptoms, but one thing it could be is the carbonation.

All draught Guinness (including Guinness Draught cans) is not carbonated with just CO2, but with nitrogen and CO2 in a 70-30% (thereabouts) mix.

Additionally, when pouring a typically carbonated beer incorrectly (or not pouring it into a glass), a larger amount of CO2 remains in solution, leading to gastro bloat that can feel more uncomfortable than one would expect. You can experience bad pours even at bars, depending on who's behind the tap.

Lagers will have higher carbonation levels than most stouts, so that could be a factor.
At least you don't get sued or incarcerated /s
Really good comment. While I am somewhat concerned about people in general finding me interesting, the real concern is that I don't think my family finds me all that interesting. I am available and attentive but I don't think I bring all that much to the table in terms of fun.
This makes me sad. I use SoundCloud to listen to one genre only (progressive trance for when I'm programming) and its gotten so good at recommending me exactly what I like. On top of that DJ sets are top notch.

There are many genres I like to listen to, but the result is a mix of all the things. It's quite rubbish to get a mix of very different genres spanning decades, which happens with Spotify all the time. And YouTube has been abandoned for all but the occasional song for me for similar reasons.

I'm not holding my breath on this sale as so many times the end result is for the worse.
Guess I should see what else is out there.
> Can you really easily cross-bred modern specimens of broccoli and kale?

I know that one particular pairing of broccoli and kale did cross-breed, in my father's garden, many years ago. At least, that's what he (a PhD biologist) told me. They shot up into flower stalks right away, and neither leaves nor florets were edible.

Broccoli and cauliflower would interbreed, as well. Sometimes their piebald florets were edible, but usually they were terribly bitter.

They were a curiousity, no more.
Indeed Congress could do much much more to make legal proceedings "morally fair".

They could greatly expand the bench (aka have more judges) so cases get heard faster.

They could create entirely new levels of legal proceedings by expanding "small claims" or invent other forms of legal review that are less formal with simpler discovery rules.

They could greatly expand the basis for appeals and insert more levels of review into the existing process, rather than just trial -> appellate -> SCOTUS.

The fact that the current congress is dysfunctional is a political problem the courts can't fix.
I don't want to be rude, but given the average quality of material produced by big consulting companies I have encountered over my career, I'm not that surprised that GPT4 beats them.
I don't understand Google anymore.

Surely people can relate to the situation where you end up on an article based on some technical query you have. The article repeats your question 7 times, has endless casually-related filler text that still does not answer the question and then ends with: try to unplug it.

It is so freaking obvious that it's a malicious content farm, but Google with all of its technical might seem unable or unwilling to detect it. If tech can't do it, organize some type of curation or feedback?

Same for image search. You search for "red flower Thailand" and flowers of various other colors from various locations appear. The idea that Google is spectacularly good at subject detection from imagery does not seem to actually work out in practice.

Most people's search queries consist of just 2-3 words. Nowadays Google consistently just drops the last word as if it knows better than I do what I need.

High value elaborate articles on various topics do not rank. Instead, dated articles do. You have to manually bookmark high quality content as you see it, because you'll never find it back via search.

Is everybody asleep at Google? This is not a small thing, this is your bread and butter. Teens are using Tiktok for search, you're in real trouble and better start cleaning up your act.
Yes, Spotify and SoundCloud togethrr nearly completely scratch my music itch. Would love to see more SoundCloud integrations, e.g. with Yamaha receivers, which only support Spotify and airplay.
They are important in the negative sense: Intel processors are appalling at handling them, and they can break realtime code because of this.

My DAW uses both "denormals are zero" and "flush denormals to zero" to try to avoid them; it also offers a "DC Bias" option where extremely small values are added to samples to avoid denormals.
Health insurance also has high value for many people - the cost you’d otherwise pay. For my family, that’s in the many many of thousands.
So, I just looked at the site. I strongly recommend just rebuilding it, like BadCookie said. Most web views are mobile, and that old page won't play nice with small screens.
It seems empty -- I guess he can work on generative AI and Robotics at another company (probably better he does so). But can he actually stop or obstruct FSD at Tesla?

If I was an investor in Tesla, I think I'd want him to start a separate company for those other tasks and then invest separately.
This Casey tweet? https://twitter.com/cmuratori/status/1640827575437250561?lan...

There was a lot of comment when this was posted here.
The difference is that the LLM is still copying copyrighted material in your case, but if I burn a Linux ISO, that is not happening.

You do not have to produce an exact copy of something to violate copyright, and I think anything the LLM outputs is violating copyright for everything it has ever trained on, unless the operator (the person operating the LLM and/or the person prompting it) has rights to that content.
Download the website using this tool https://website-downloader.onrender.com/ and start editing. You can use free hosting services like Netlify or Vercel to host the site. The website doesn't have a search presence, so even if you re-build, it doesn't hurt.
Media companies don't care if you think it's replacing her or not. They care that (1) they made something that will sell and that (2) they made it cheaper than they did before.

All content will be behind a subscription and the algorithm will say "you like Janis Joplin? Let's autoplay some close-enough AI artists that don't exist that we won't have to pay any royalties to!" You'll get an offer to upgrade to Double Pro+ for a special introductory rate to skip those tracks.
share your playlist pls!
> Are there any humans that can produce artwork without ingesting inspiration from other art?

This sounds so detached from human experience that I am tempted to ask if you are a human or just a disembodied spirit that haunts the internet.

When the first neanderthal drew a deer on the walls of a cave, where did they get inspiration?

When a little child draws a tree for the first time, where do they draw inspiration? Do you think they were reviewing works of Picasso?

When the firm man made an axe, chopped a tree, made a bed, sown some clothes, discovered fire, where did they draw inspiration?

Do you not have eyes, ears, do you not perceive and get inspiration from the natural world around you?
> In the decade prior to this, my total premiums must have been over $200k for literally no usage.

You’ve just described insurance. If everyone took more than they used, it wouldn’t work.
Artemis – Interactive Learning with Automated Feedback
If it is just a few pages and mostly static, I would rebuild using a CMS like WordPress for future maintenance or at the minimum, a brand new static site and host on a $5 digitalocean droplet or netlify/cloudflare pages.

Current setup is too old to try and work with and you may save time doing from scratch.
Given history, it's infinitely more dubious to link our future safety to some idea of progress stopping for some reason. We'll have increasingly smart AI and your go-to position is that progress will...stop? It's literally helping us with thinking, which is the driver of innovation and progress.

Very few things have slowed down over decades or centuries. If anything it's been a mad rush with AI recently. Of course there will be plateaus, but I specifically put in a time of 100-1000 years in there which is basically very many 9's guaranteed to produce some major fucking changes in the world. 1000 years ago we were using arrows, and now we have AI to help us overcome plateaus.
It's a tiny tweak that gives something like 1% of the functionality.

The real, useful, working CUA mode for Emacs is here:

https://ergoemacs.github.io/
SoundCloud is still my most used music platform. If you like electronic music, it’s second to none. I like the fact that you can have 1-2h sets where you can comment reactions or ID different songs at specific timestamps. I also like to interact with different small artists there and follow their growth in the industry. I would message them tracks that I like and they would send me private links to early versions of their next release for feedback. You can’t find that anywhere else.
Ironically the reports of instability got me make an account with them. It's been on my todo list but forgot about it