skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Related:

Buffett pulls ahead in wager against hedge funds - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5134337 - January 2013, 27 comments

Ted Seides Concedes Bet with Warren Buffett - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14257847 - May 2017, 130 comments

Buffett wins $1M decade-old bet that the S&P500 would outperform hedgefunds - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15268726 - September 2017, 316 comments

Warren Buffett's bet against hedge funds at the Long Now Foundation (2008-17) - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26294386 - February 2021, 131 comments
Probably it is, based on the platforms it supports this early.
“ physical entropy sources are crucial to cryptographic security”

Of this would be true, then no one would use VMs and cloud instances.
This article is from 2021. The system being discussed as a replacement is Sentinel which is another ICBM system.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGM-35_Sentinel
It wasn't my point, but I think we agree. Legacy auto can't make a competitive small EV.

I give it 50% chance it won't in US - Tesla will release cheaper model by the time BYD starts selling (if ever) in US.
I made a free / mostly open source one for iOS that lets you edit the system prompt

https://chatonmac.com
I don’t buy his theory that Lance was clean early in his career because he only won one day races up to that point. Exogenous EPO was available for the first time by the time Indurain began his run on the Tour de France several years earlier- this was quite startling because he was huge weight wise by grand tour standards up to that time. Armstrong might just have not dialed in the doping just right in those early years, the system exposed in the USPS fraud trial was very extensive. For a similar surprising result for a relatively heavy one day specialist I remember one of Armstrong’s teammates Hincapie winning a stage with a mountaintop finish and thinking they’re really just shoving it in our faces now.
I would not be from scratch. We know how to build them, just look at the Trident missiles
Surely that's a joke ?
Much easier said than done. (I can make a plausible case as an IoT manufacturer, so went that route.)
> I don’t think it has ever reappeared.

It resurfaced, much later.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RDRAND

The main application is cryptography. I am not aware of Monte Carlo simulations that use real random numbers. Plus, true RNGs are often biased, so in the end, you still have a PRNG, the true RNG only being used to inject some entropy.
As Motley Fools [1] like to point out, the most you can loose is 100% whereas the upside is unbounded. This means that even if all but one investment turns completely to dust, if that one is outstanding it makes up for it all.

We are actually in that situation now where the gains of S&P 500 relies completely on the top handful of companies and as much as (IIRC) 70% of the companies in S&P 500 are lagging the market.

[1] This is not an endorsement; my personal experience with their pool was mediocre at best.
I'm not seeing the relevance of your comment to the comment it's replying to. Can you explain the connection?
Idaho has a small fraction of the population and diversity of those other places. Their challenges are significantly easier. Having been raised Republican and evangelical, I'd agree with the article. Those groups push kids under the bus and think they're doing the kids a favor.

European countries have many problems; IME placing profit, religion, and extreme forms of individualism above child well-being aren't on the list.
> Once you consider that you can force others to do anything, regardless of reason, you can begin to rationalize anything, and it will be "for the greater good" or "for their own good". They probably even sincerely mean it too.

Eh, I know lots of people who are neither anarchists nor totalitarians, so I'm not sure this is true.
MouthPad^: smart mouthware for hands-free computer control
But they even gave an exact number in feet—about 820! About because it’s 820.21 to match the exact 250m. Where’s the wiggle room now.
This reminds me of Matt Lakeman's "An Attempt at Explaining, Blaming, and Being Very Slightly Sympathetic Toward Enron"

https://mattlakeman.org/2020/04/27/explaining-blaming-and-be...

He makes the point that although Enron was clearly doing shady things, it's possible for a legitimate business to do many of the same stuff ("mark-to-market" accounting, tricky SPEs, and so on). Try to categorically eliminate Enron-style fraud and you might take down the next Google in the crossfire.
Stick a nuke on a spaceX rocket, done.
The country that is still launching the same platform for manned space that they did in the 50s can't figure out how to do that but with warheads -- doubt! Makes a good story though!
Its a complex legacy system still in use that needed to have parts reverse engineered in the past because the documentations no longer existed. This is the next iteration of that problem, there is noone left that understands them.
Good idea. I put it here: https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/nickalt/hacker-news
https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/nickalt/hacker-news
They are. It's called the Sentinel and it's going to cost hundreds of billions of dollars when it's all said and done.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGM-35_Sentinel
Perhaps you should keep reading?
Why bother with the speaking? Just write it down as consulting and mail him a check. Or put him on the board and mail him a check. Or send him Venmo and say it's for "rent". There are tons of way to give someone money that doesn't involve them speaking. If it were about giving him the money, far less visible alternatives exist,
so it's really about the speaking.

Look, there's some amount of money that's you're willing to spend on hearing someone you want to listen to speak/perform. Assuming you've ever gone to a concert or a show, that's true, so the rest is down to details. Would you pay $1 to watch former President Obama speak? $2? What's the cost of a dollar to you? If you're willing to spend $2 to see former President Obama speak, why wouldn't your rich friend spend $2, or their friend $4? If someone's got enough money that they're willing to pay a million dollars to hear someone speak, it's more a reflection on how much money they have and how little it means to them than anything else.

If I had a million dollars I'd spend it on other things but if I had a hundred million dollars, I'd totally spend a million to hear a former president speak, or have Taylor Swift play my birthday party.

Rich people spend their money differently than poor people, or are you too poor to see that?
"JONATHAN LANSNER January 5, 2024 at 9:10 a.m.
California housing costs ran 60% above the US norm in 2022, by this math"

.. I sense a pattern
Ditto to this. My experience has been very similar to yours.

The amount of incompetence involved with payment processing and banking is just mind boggling. KYC/AML is very quickly turning into bizarro big brother. But not an all-knowing AI big brother. A stupid 2005-era IP address detecting one. You do a little too much traveling? Poof. There goes a month of your life to banking jail.

A simple two-factor mechanism like passkeys or authy (that isn’t based on SMS to unreliable US phone carriers) would solve about 99.999% of this.
Some of this stuff is only not worth it because it's insanely overpriced.

DWHR is a fine example of this: the device is just a couple feet of double walled copper pipe. It should be dirt cheap, but instead they sell for $800.

The real limit for DWHR is that you need a vertical drop to get sheet flow, a horizontal section would be much less effective. Also there is a moderate plumbing complication from the fact that your 'cold' water in the shower also needs to be sourced from the DWHR to not have a massive heat leak.

With the high price of the DWHR and the plumbing complications it'll never pay for itself except with the highest shower usage in the coldest climates.

That said, cost shouldn't be the only consideration. Even disregarding environmental concerns a building that is more passively efficient will work better during outages/energy shortages.
What does the army 'fighting' look like in this scenario? It seems like there's no other solution for deterrent weapons than refurbishing and replacing stock (preferably without dispatching)
I think there's a handful of Soyuz launches per year, and those don't have a nuclear warhead that needs to be maintained.
I don’t understand why the patch would continue to be useless; it’s all he has to stand on!
I'm surprised SpaceX hasn't put together a proposal for ground-based ICBMs using a Falcon variant, seems right up their alley... I'm guessing the government doesn't want to be any more beholden to Elon and/or it's technically harder to convert than I realize?
I always liked this one when it crops up

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavarand
Agreed. Even then, I used to take the subway to a regional big box wholesale club to grab stuff that made sense. If I lived nearer to a Costco, I’d take advantage of their fantastic sustainable fish program. Lot’s of good quality stuff has a totally worthwhile price point at those places. There’s a lot of room for different approaches, even in dense cities. Most people in cities don’t even have room to store that much stuff. I never did, and I didn’t miss it.
Due to AI hype?
The replacement system mentioned in the article is already under development and is called Sentinel. Northrop Grumman got the contract 3 years ago. It's not a "from scratch" effort as it's largely based on existing technology. They aren't having to redo all the work from the last 80+ years of rocket and ICBM R&D.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGM-35_Sentinel
Yes they have free will but it is covered to the extent that it mostly acts mechanically.

In its current life it may not have the intelligence to act morally. But once( before it became a caterpillar ) it had a body of moral sentiment being with power of discrimination. It made bad choices at that time and thus induced suffering in current life.
This page crashes my safari and Chrome tab instances on my iPhone
Before Xi Jinping took control of the country, China was clearly heading away from this kind of thing. And then...complete 180 let's go back to studying Mao thought. It is quite sad, I wonder if the next generation of leaders (if/when they are allowed to assume control) will finally throw off the shackles of Mao and the cultural revolution.
Its not just skill but also knowledge. Recipe of Greek fire got lost to the ages.
I’ve consistently heard that there isn’t too much of a difference between an ICBM and a space rocket.

So I presume the military could “just” buy some modern heavy launch stages from SpaceX or the like, and then strap regular SLBMs to them as their payloads.
Yes, I also consider this experience as part of the learning curve. Java and Go have given me a poor development experience because I have to personally test many libraries (which takes time) before choosing one. It really wastes a lot of the company's resources (since people's work time equals company expenses).
The problem usually is in advanced electronics. Russia doesn't have everything it needs to build+maintain these systems.

Obviously with sanctions these parts are near impossible to come by in quantity, but if you're looking to maintain a few missiles it shouldn't be too hard to smuggle it.
Humility demands that you consider the possibility that their motivation and even the net effect of the legislation that they support either directly or indirectly through their support for a particular candidate is not to punish anyone's nature.
Does not answer the implied "well, which bad tech in particular, can you name it?" question.

Probably because this article is just consultant balloon juice. Brings up the "Allen Curve", which is a real thing, just not generally known, out of thin air. Lots and lots of words with very little substance, and contrary to just about every employee's lived experience.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planetary_protection
From the article:
Category II: Any mission to locations of significant interest for chemical evolution and the origin of life, but only a remote chance that spacecraft-borne contamination could compromise investigations. Examples include the Moon, Venus, and comets. Requires simple documentation only, primarily to outline intended or potential impact targets, and an end of mission report of any inadvertent impact site if such occurred.[16]
Yeah, sorry, I don't believe for a second that Russia has failed to maintain their only playing card. What a joke. US military industrial complex folks will make up any story to excuse their audit-free slovenly spending.
China's military has always been focused inward. Liberation is not just a "one and done" kind of thing.
Different areas have different CoL. So if you compare unadjusted spending per pupil you'll get a skewed picture. Different areas also have different mixes of cultures, expectations, and parental challenges like poverty or needing to work multiple jobs. The article specifically calls out that families in our capitalist nightmare need help feeding their kids and caring for those too young for school.
“Command and Control” by Eric Schlosser was a fascinating treatise on this whole subject. You really get a sense that the nuclear arsenal is a giant machine that needs constant maintenance and supervision to ensure they are safe and usable.
it should at least provide some better price to performance options once the AMD software/drivers get up to speed.
Based on your needs you can’t really use a dumb phone; so why torture yourself by pretending a cheap-ass smartphone is a dumb phone?
Ask HN: Where do you find Co-Hackers?
After my first real vacation for 10 years, I'm unemployed and looking for something fun to hack and to upskill. Right now, I'm having lots of fun with Swift and Node.js. (Coming from a data / product / UX background)

But I would LOVE to work on a cool side project with someone else.

Since there are no meetups or coworking spaces or anything else in my (literal) neck of the woods in Europe, there are no organic non-virtual ways to meet new people.

What do you do in a situation like this? Join online meetups? Use YC Co-Founder search? Anything else? I'm curious.
A lot of engineers working at space companies are there precisely because they don't want to work on weapons systems.
Perfect bridge hands are pretty common because perfect shuffles happen randomly pretty often when you play a lot of games starting from an unshuffled deck.
(I am the author of the article) You are correct that he wasn't clean early in his career. He admitted to first using a banned substance in 1993, which was the year he won the World Championship, and I recall the 2012 investigation had testimony of his using drugs on Motorola in 1994. I also don't think there's any convincing evidence he actually lost much weight in 98 when he had his first high GT finish at the Vuelta. There are probably many possible reasons for how he transformed into a grand tour contender in 1998 -- from "dialing it in" to completely changing the strategy, but I haven't seen any agreed upon theory.
I agree. It has less UI in the way and doesn't take as long to startup, but can still bold and underline. I use it every day for notes at work.

At least it's easily replaced. I assume...
I'm not really sure which metric is better but one logic of using per hour is that I think vehicle breakdown occurs more likely the more hour they're active, not the more distance they travelled https://www.lytx.com/blog/measuring-engine-miles-to-hours-to... . Also chances of external condition like weather ruining your trips are also more likely with more time because forecasting can only go so far.
Had strange behavior as well on iPhone, couldn’t finish the post because it kept jumping around
The movement of heat is proportional to the heat difference. So if you're going to move the sewage across miles of basically uninsulated pipe, you're better off taking the heat out at one end (and using it very productively, essentially all the heat removed by DWHR is used!) and then putting it back in at the other, then you are leaving it in the pipe to have 99% of it lost to the environment.

DWHR isn't very efficient in and of itself, but that is because the short contact time and small temp differences doesn't permit it to remove much heat from the waste stream. But what it doesn't remove is still there, so that for of inefficiency isn't relevant to your comment.
ChatGPTs responses seem increasingly identifiable.

If the respondent hasn’t ever experienced ChatGPT, maybe.

If they have, absolutely not
"Criticising Israel has no costs while supporting them has costs"

It often carries a cost in domestic support. It carries trade costs as the US, Uk and others punish BDS, while no Arab countries impose secondary sanctions on countries that trade with Israel (as many themselves do). This is just untrue.
Liquid-fueled setup is largely unsuitable for ICBMs. Want something that can sit in the silo for years and then be immediately available - so solid rocket motors are the way to go, plenty of other defence companies that are specialists in this.
Is it really so distracting from the larger point? Are you aware of counter evidence, proving Greece is systematically neglecting its children? Keep reading
So just illegally publish them anyway?

The law should provide a mechanism here, but does not.
There are some KaiOS flip phones with WhatsApp like the Nokia 2720 Flip or Alcatel Go Flip V for instance.
It's the warhead, especially the small ones, that are difficult. I imagine a thousand launchers distributed across the country are an issue as well. The problem is that it's too tempting for locals to simply scavenge or resell any maintenance supplies. Very similar to the fuel and food that got sold prior to the start of the Ukraine invasion, only nobody is going to find out unless there's a nuclear war.
Yes to both. On top of that, having the laptop be physically stuck while doing a long CUDA run was a worst-of-both-words situation. Much rather launch something and then be free to take the laptop somewhere else while the run percolates in the server room.
Writing square root of two as a continuous fraction leads to a periodic sequence of coefficients. More generally, a continuous fraction is periodic if and only if the number it represents is a quadratic number, that is, a linear combination of a rational number and the square root of a rational number [1]. It does not exactly answer your question, yet in the sense of continuous fraction at least, square root of two is more structured than pi, and less random.

Edit: the golden ratio is also a quadratic number, so this intuition is wrong in the end!

[1]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Periodic_continued_fraction#...
I’m not sure it was considered common sense when the bet was made. And when it settled there were various claims that Buffet got lucky in that stocks just went up over the 10 years – perhaps he wouldn’t have won if there was some kind of crash.

I’m not claiming he was wrong but I’m not sure one can really reduce it to those few points as if it makes it all obvious.
> What really improves here?

With affirmative registration we can trivially prove/disprove whether a specific work is registered under copyright. It also greatly expands the works in the public domain.

> It doesn't even benefit open source development.

Sure it does. Code by default is usable by anyone. A registry of copywritten code would appear which we could easily cross-reference.
> This is why you train your skills by doing the correct movement over and over again.

Yes, but can you make this to go faster?
Yeah so I went Brisbane - Goondiwindi - Lake Cowal and return on my last trip.

Using ABRP and a random electric it adds a lot of time to the trip, diverting me via Warwick/Tenterfield avoiding the Toowoomba - Gwindi part of the trip. there's also 9 hours 21 minutes of charging.

Thats before determining whether the vehicle is suitably rugged, long stretches of road were uncovered. One of these trips we found ourselves on an unmaintained service road with deep potholes and several down trees.

My next trip is likely to be Brisbane to Mt Isa, and its got a large stretch of red on ABRP.
Trying to debug this right now, had similar reports. It's something with my CodeSandbox embeds (through Sandpack). I've tried better error handling but nothing yet, based on the error I'm seeing it sounds like it's overloading the GPU. Surprisingly can't find anything in Sandpack about it.

Might just remove the embedded sandboxes. They're cool, but not needed.
Not everyone chases money
Unfortunately, LongBets lets people make predictions on the platform even if they decline all bets from people who disagree.
Quickly, how many feet in a mile? What about quarter of a mile? Eighth of a mile? How many inches is a half of a mile?

Now try with kilometers, meters, and centimeters. I think this is the point that is being made.
The missiles are designed, built, and installed by the contractor. They are managed, operated, and controlled by the USER. USAF.

Over a 50 year life. With very strenuous time to launch requirements. By staff that is well trained, but not well experienced.

An ICBM is a lot different that putting a payload in orbit. Needs to sit for 10 years, with 21 year old technicians performing the maintenance. And then launch when desired, on short notice, perhaps with portions of the support systems inoperative.
Well classical conditioning kind of only makes sense in the context of an agent that is receiving inputs and taking actions on them. Many neural networks don't solve problems of that type, and so have no need for classical conditioning.

But when you do have such a problem conditioning is not very complicated. The normal algorithms and neural structures are designed to learn stuff like "when a given input happens a certain action must be taken" and thats all you really need for conditioning. How it actually does it? Well I guess with gradient descent it would work something like this: Every time there is a puff of air the network will be like "damn I should have blinked to avoid this" and so it makes its current internal statement a little more likely to lead to blinking. Gradually as it happens more times it will learn a strong association for the ringing bell or whatever.

A small RNN could learn this.
> if that one is outstanding it makes up for it all.

It may well be outstanding and still not make up for it all.

> This is not an endorsement; my personal experience with their pool was mediocre at best.

That's the opposite of an endorsement!
Great job, but how can I subscribe to your website's newsletter? ;)
Can I try this on AWS?
Do they have any instances with AMD GPUs?
I mean I could have pulled up, gotten out an extension cord and begged for electricity, but clearly I meant advertised bays for electric vehicle charging.
Excel is the old way of doing it. We use Google Sheets now.
If you're using Long Bets as your betting platform, you are presumably comfortable with both (a) the Long Now Foundation and (b) donating to charity. It's not that huge of a stretch for you to be comfortable diverting a bit under half your donation to LNF. Presumably the people making these bets should be sophisticated enough to understand this implication, though reporting on them can be ... iffy.
What an extremely wordy and repetitive article mostly to say the author doesn't believe anyone can prove that Lance would have won in a clean field. Obviously, it never happened, so no one can know what would have happened. No one can prove a counterfactual. But I don't think the rest of the words adds to the discourse any more than the single sentence:

> I do not think it follows from Mr. Armstrong having been stronger than other cheaters while he himself was cheating that he would have been the strongest clean cyclist if everyone was clean.
2023-04-24: MouthPad – In-Mouth Bluetooth Mouse Uses Tongue Sensitive Trackpad (augmental.tech)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35684828
Technically, self-employed but working entirely for one company.
Working Effective With Legacy Missiles