skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
- Biden wins reelection comfortably, picking up North Carolina and getting closer than 2020 in Texas. Republicans win the senate, Democrats retake the house.

- Trump is convicted in at least one jurisdiction, though sentencing happens after the election. He refuses to drop out, but also refuses to debate.

- Core PCE stays around 2%, economy grows at about 2% in real terms. The overall economy is stable and growing and consumer sentiment turns positive again.

- Waymo has a publicized accident

- OpenAI releases their first open model

- Llama3 and Mistral become gpt4 competitive, but GPT5 is delayed for “safety reasons”

For fun I have copied over my predictions from last year: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34128162

—————

- US barely avoids recession, slow growth for H1, back to normal H2. NBER announces no recession in 2022. (Correct, though a tad pessimistic)

- Inflation normalizes at 4%, Fed pivots despite prior denials. Market trades sideways to slightly higher by EOY 2023. (Market traded much higher by the end of the year, and the CPI is now in the 3s not 4)

- Robotaxis become common in 10 cities around the southwest between the top ~4 competitors, but revenues are lower than expected. (Robotaxi deployments contracted due to Cruise accident)

- Continued consolidation amongst the AV component suppliers

- DeSantis, Pence, Christie, Hutchinson, Hogan enter the Presidential race. DeSantis ends up being weaker than expected, and is in a close #2 with Trump by the end of the year against a split field. (No Hogan and Trump dominated by much more than I expected after it turns out DeSantis has no juice)

- Trump recovers in GOP primary polls after DOJ indictment (he did!)

- Biden announces re-election bid, met with token opposition from Nina Turner (not Turner but his opposition is still low key. Didn’t expect RFK Jr)

- McCarthy narrowly wins speakership, House investigations end up a dud. (Happened, didn’t expect him to get axed so quickly though)

- Another fusion breakthrough (higher Q than expected) EOY 2023 (nothing huge)

- Tech job market normalizes at 2018 levels instead of 2021 levels in the second half of 2023 (feels right? Don’t know the numbers).
It's odd to me that anyone would come up with 3, to me it was immediately very apparent from the diagram that the closest answer was 9/2.
But are any of the steps: profit? Serious question for those in the know.
I make them in an instant pot. 5 mins high pressure cook, quick release, take them out straight into ice cold water, leave for 5 minutes, the shell almost slides off. The fresher the egg, the easier to peel.
They were expensive and had considerably less content.

Like 1 or 2 channels with a modest amount of original programming each week.
Of course we should ban TikTok
That doesn't make it a conspiracy theory anymore than saying large companies participating in union-busting is a conspiracy theory.

To quote the late George Carlin "you don't need a formal conspiracy when interests converge."
Between this and many of my Prime "two-day" eligible orders taking up to and occasionally longer than a week these days, I'm thinking it may be time to cancel my Prime subscription.
It's fun to see the evolution in e.g. these examples of image loading for Dear Imgui:

https://github.com/ocornut/imgui/wiki/Image-Loading-and-Disp...

DirectX9 will even load the image for you, DirectX11 okay we get a few more structures to fill out, DirectX12 is where it goes off the rails and we are filling out a bunch of UNKNOWN DONT_CARE JUST_DO_IT. Then of course Vulkan is the one that gets the big fat "this probably won't actually work for you" warning.

I understand whats happening, but you know sometimes I just want to display a fucking image.
More and more of their offering has been moving to their Freevee ad tier, anyway.

And if they run the Prime tier ads like they've been running the Freevee tier ads, for me, that means "forget about it".

Freevee ads, last time I could bring myself to try a show on it, are copious, inserted willy-nilly into the show often at very awkward and disruptive moments, with no forewarning... AND, the quality of the ads and their copy/content is crap. Not just lots of very disruptive ads, but offensive ones.

Louis Rossman has a recent YouTube video on the severely declining quality of the physical products you find on (U.S.) Amazon. It really helped crystallize for me in my own mind what's been happening there. He can't find a decent electrical butt joint to, well, as you see from his demonstration, potentially save his life (versus the Chinese crap e.g. starting a fire that takes it).

This move is just one more step -- far down the road -- towards Amazon becoming an outright sewer.

I'm supposed to pay $130 ($150?...) a year, for THIS?!

(And by the way, 2 day delivery is a farce now. A few things are quicker, and many are... the opposite.)

Anyway, I'm looking at a set of "Magnum PI" DVD's I just picked up used, because Freevee has had the streaming rights bound up for the last year or a bit more, and I literally cannot watch the show together with their ads. I'll take the downgrade in image quality over putting up with them.

Oh, and if you want Magnum on Blu-ray? You have to pony up the better part of $200 for one of the remaining European box sets. Then purchase a "gray" modded Blu-ray player. Or rip them. Or... that other thing.

F--- the entire "entertainment industry". Once it transitions from creativity to the intellectual property portion of its function, it's just a monster.

P.S. Although I don't regularly survey all the offerings, the only ad-based streaming whose ad delivery I've been able to tolerate is Tubi. They've been increasing the quantity of ads -- sigh -- but you still get a 10 second warning, and the ads I see largely I do not find comparatively offensive. (And those shite/exploitative online gambling ads seem to be in decline -- yay!)

Plus, Tubi overall has a comparable if not better catalog, these days.

So maybe I'll just tell Amazon to stuff it. If I'm going to have ads, Tubi does that better, anyway. (Although I do hate making Fox, now its owner, any money, even such indirect, advertising-based money.)
We will continue to disagree about this.
It seems like a clickbait title combined with nuanced points of high quality and relevancy.
How to disable Google Photo backup from your Android device
I only do it when important. And in person/phone - not over IM/email.

If it's a bunch of tasks for the other person, I say "Just so that we're on the same page, can you tell me what you're going to do?" Or even "So, after this long ramble of mine, do you know what needs to be done?" - this often triggers them to rattle off a list.
The Big One: Preparing for a Long War Between the U.S. and China
Exploiting people feeling sick to sell them low quality food.
The main reason there isn't is because e-ink tech is controlled by a company with a strict and expensive licensing arrangement. Until the patent expires, we're unlikely to realize the technology's full potential.
The streaming companies need to understand that the user-friendliness of piracy is actually something they need to be competing against. Lots of people I knew pirating stuff stopped when Netflix streaming came out.
This was what I thought too, but ‘ksherlock has provided some links above that suggest the opposite: paid subscribers are less profitable than their ad-viewing counterparts.
https://archive.ph/0Wo5G
Other than saying it's going to be a weird and wild ride, I'm holding back on any specific predictions mainly because my crystal ball has never been right in the past!
"The authors posit that poverty consumes cognitive resources, including attention, executive control, and working memory, and thereby impairs decision-making"

Poverty really hurts my soul to see. I talk about the homeless and drug addicted a lot. If there was something I could do that I would be certain would help in a large scale, I would 100% devote some time to it.

In Canada, I'm glad to see that people living in poverty dropped from 15% of the population to 8% [1]. In 2011, having considered living in my car but being taken in by some friends instead, I'd like to add I have long lasting resentment that takes some chunk of my thinking always.

[1] https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/topics-start/poverty
There's this: https://www.cp.eng.chula.ac.th/~somchai/cut2col/
Free and it works pretty well.
You don't even need a seed box. You can use a debrid service, like realdebrid or alldebrid to upload the magnet, then download from their site. Costs about $3 per month and you won't get a nastygram from your cable company.
Yay, an internet pizza thread. Get ready for:

1) snobby east coasters telling everyone what good pizza is, which is only found at the slice shop in their neighborhood;

2) no true Scotsmen, keepers of the purity of pizza, arriving to tell everyone what isn’t pizza (typically a subset of 1);

3) random people in Midwest locations describing how their favorite pizza has ranch as the base, or is cooked in a deep fryer, or whatever other local innovations/aberrations (sure to be shouted down by 1 and 2).
Mixed precision is a default method to pretrain and full fine tune right now. It is especially good in transformers, because they have memory bottleneck in activations (outputs of intermediate layers stored for backprop), and running forward pass in fp16/bf16 reduces VRAM by almost half (speeds up forward pass as well).
> That being said, the config is definitely highly personal

I have very special preferences (like CHORDING EVERYWHERE! :) )

> it would be amazing to have a set of scripts to compile one's own personal .vimrc

Actually, I thought about people who may have different preferences!

If you want to do the same thing but with your own .vimrc, just check the "How can I make my own CuteVim APE?" section in the README (https://github.com/csdvrx/CuteVim?tab=readme-ov-file#how-can...)

This section documents the use of the refresh.sh script from https://github.com/csdvrx/CuteVim/blob/main/refresh.sh

> and related config files (really, the entire .vim directory) into a single APE.

I don't like having a billion files everywhere (like plugins/ etc) so I didn't think about that usecase, but that would be a great addition because most people have a .vim tree: even with my dislike for having too many files, I have myself a few in .vim/after/syntax/ (to apply italics to comments)

If you can contribute a script that converts your .vimrc and .vim/ tree into something that can be added to the APE, I'd be very happy to add it!
I hope we see a Mac Netbook at some point, lol.
> With technology you can help people in different groups to understand better people in the other group.

I’m laughing harder than when the blockchain lunatics claimed they were going to solve political corruption. Well at least they had some contrived “how” instead of just making a completely unexplained speculation.
MIR is a start; someone ought to continue with the following downstream projects:

TRYD (Trace Rewriter Yielding Dynamics): reconstitutes a CFG from traces in order to not only JIT single hot paths but also multiple interlacing warm ones

MAI (Machine-Agnostic Interpreter): support for mobile processes and agents
How can AI help you write a literature review
Don't worry we're going to have a completely free market now and surely the prices will go down once people stop buying fuel, diapers or milk for a few days... right?

I also want to bring attention to the fact that we have a rampant inflation; the Peso has been devaluated by the goverment by 50%, and the budget for science for 2024 has been set to... exactly the same as 2023 (and it was already low). This means science and education in Argentina is going to be severely affected. [1] (article is pre-devaluation but still relevant).

[1] https://www.science.org/content/article/argentina-s-new-pres...
Alfred, an advanced OSINT tool v2.3(e)
Alfred version 2.3(e) will include its new config menu and soon to be more configuration options.
Our modules have also been cleaned up a bit. Not fully though.

http://github.com/alfredredbird/alfred
I’m no genius, but I used to score well on such tests as a youngster. I was handed an IQ test circa ~1996 and got about two thirds through it before I found a question where none of the responses were correct. I brought it to the teacher’s attention. “There is no way you could possibly be right, this test was reviewed first!”

Anyway, blame it on photocopy errors or whatever, but the answers were wrong. Still mad about it.

I took another one ~2007 when I was looking to be a marketing person for a construction equipment rental company. This one was about 30 questions over 60 minutes. I got to question 26, which was some extraordinarily complicated question about how many cuts would it take to chop down a large board into the pieces you needed. After I wasted several minutes methodically writing this out, I realized the true test was realizing it was a time waster question one should skip. 27-30 were far simpler and then the buzzer ran out on me.
there is a common conception in America that there is a 'right' to parking availability, which is not really a thing anywhere else.

in practice, 'not enough parking' often means 'not enough parking, that I am personally willing to pay for, in a location that I am willing to park in'. which could mean anything from 'all the spots are taken within a half mile' to 'I don't really want to pay for a $2 garage one block over because the street parking is free'
includes ads. If you want ad-free Prime Video you have to pay an additional $3/month on top of your basic Prime subscription
The day this starts is the day I stop using the service.
That's not what gene therapy means.

>In 1986, a meeting at the Institute Of Medicine defined gene therapy as the addition or replacement of a gene in a targeted cell type. In the same year, the FDA announced that it had jurisdiction over approving "gene therapy" without defining the term. The FDA added a very broad definition in 1993 of any treatment that would ‘modify or manipulate the expression of genetic material or to alter the biological properties of living cells’. In 2018 this was narrowed to ‘products that mediate their effects by transcription or translation of transferred genetic material or by specifically altering host (human) genetic sequences’

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_therapy#Classification

mRNA vaccines don't alter the host genome, hence not gene therapy. You could use a broader definition I suppose since (ideally) they lead to the production of certain immune cells; and that would also include all other vaccines.
Yes, they exist. The "best" is dependent on many things and is changing significantly each month.

You might find a good foothold if you start here:

* https://ollama.ai/library
How else are they supposed to fund projects like "The rings of power" for a billion dollars?
Is the enforced ratio something that would work? It seems to me all the hotties and the overtly wealthy would get hooked up right away, and for 3-6 months you'd have increasingly homely and unlikeable users. Add in the ones that are "always shopping" and the site could go stagnant fast.

The invite system seems unlikely, until you notice that's exactly how Google Mail and nearly every social site got started. So that strategy might actually work just fine. Plenty of Fish is a site that has managed to make dating a very social thing, where invites given to friends and acquaintances wouldn't even feel unusual.
> Most of them are awful but only in rare cases do they cause permanent damage beyond what is already happening with the cancer

That's simply not true. Chemotherapy, in particular, is ridiculously bad.

Chemo brain is a thing. Another example, people have to wear cold packs on their hands and feet in order to minimize the neuropathy that some chemotherapies can cause. Other chemotherapies cause your veins to leak with attendant swelling everywhere. Several years after therapy, some of that swelling still persists. Radiation is horrendously bad at damaging intestinal tissue. etc.

Yes, it beats being dead. That's about all you can say about it.
Donald Knuth’s 2023 Christmas Lecture: Making the Cells Dance
'Merchants of Complexity': Why 37Signals Abandoned the Cloud
There's a thread on the deadbird site (via a nitter mirror) where it describes the making of the story is just as shocking as the film itself: https://nitter.unixfox.eu/ATRightMovies/status/1739608169154...
Apollo 11 vs. USB-C Chargers (2020)
Cars and Business
Related:

Donald Knuth's Annual Christmas Lecture 2023 - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38548712 - Dec 2023 (5 comments)

30 years of Donald Knuth's 'Christmas Lectures' are online – including 2023's - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38775882 - Dec 2023 (10 comments)
Dismiss petitioner
Thanks for that explanation. I will try to learn more about it.
Sorry about that. They just seem like small potatoes compared to trying to run the company the way you actually believe will be most profitable. I hope RTO isn't correct but I assume those calling for it really believe it's correct.

I think soft layoffs are a real thing, feels like something people will account for when making decisions like this, but not really a driver of them.

I'm curious about the office space thing. How's a company meant to realize gains here?
Having grown up poor I can attest that everything is more expensive when you’re poor. It’s like we built the system to keep the poor down.
When I got my first minimum wage paycheck I was astounded by how much tax I had to pay. In what universe does it make sense to tax the crap out of poverty wages? How much tax did Amazon pay last year. Oh right NOTHING.

I worked so hard for that and I get slapped while the government hands out tax benefits to corporations like they’re beads at Marti Gras.

Poor people can’t afford a good car so they buy a crap one. Why do they need a car? Because they can’t afford to live near the city center where jobs are. Why can’t they take the bus? Shift ends at 1030, last bus at 10. Oh also it takes 2.5 hours on the bus vs 20 min in the car. Which means less time to make money. God help you if you’re in school too. Oh study on the bus. Great. Sure actually did that. You ever study on the bus? It blows.

So yeah, car as soon as you can scrape up a couple grand.
Crap car blows a head gasket. Now you’re in the hole for 6 months. Don’t have the savings? Predatory interest rates. Miss a payment because it’s that or miss rent and freeze to death? Now your interest rates are even higher.

Why does poverty exist? Because our system makes it exist. Sure there are psychological reasons, and mental health reasons and addiction reasons, but I tell you what, digging out is hard. Super hard.

If it were less hard to dig out, we’d have a hell of a lot less poverty.
People don’t work unless whipped? Or are you saying something else
anecdata from years ago: 100% is 800, and leaving one question blank is 780.
Only way is up :)
All of Europe uses 220v-240v for residential use.
> Still mad about it.

Why?
This is sort-of an existing feature since Windows 10. You can download the latest Windows 10 (or 11) media creation tool and create a USB. Click Setup.exe, and even if it's the same build of Windows, you can reinstall it, keeping all existing apps and data. This will effectively reinstall the existing OS, even fixing horribly broken installs (given the user profile isn't also corrupt). I did it a few weeks ago & helped a student to get through finals.
They run on spreadsheets. Not ethics or spite. If they’re wrong, we’ll get to enjoy watching them discover that the hard way.
If you saw this video that's on YouTube, it describes it well. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSVHpX1CDN8
Unifi Express Review
This may be the long awaited heir apparent to the discontinued Apple AirPort Express.
Fairly accurate, except in the hayday, 1:5 ratio at worst. 2 minutes every 15 minutes of ads, was tyoical for first run.

Reruns were cut, scenes removed, to allow more ads. The prime stuff was more valuable, so reruns brought in less ad revenue, so they sold more spots.
Might not even have been a gotcha. They interlace draft questions all the time. They don’t count toward your score.
* https://lmstudio.ai

LM Studio is far superior these days.
A few thoughs:

- One invite per account per day seems like it'd greatly incentivize spammers, as they could invite one new spam account a day, exponential growth, where regular users probably would NOT invite one new account every day. You could poison the whole tree if too many accounts in an invite tree were spam, if you had certainty that the fake detection was working.

- Requiring reviews of profiles probably will lead to poor quality reviews. What's to stop me from clicking "looks legit to me" blindly?

- Detecting fakes with AI: We're rapidly getting to the point where there's little reason to be using the same person's photos across fake accounts.
What's wrong with your neighborhood’s zoning?
Thanks! Macroexpanded:

Alice and Bob: A History of the World’s Most Famous Cryptographic Couple (2017) - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20427987 - July 2019 (18 comments)

The History of Alice and Bob - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14801883 - July 2017 (35 comments)
This is what I would have guessed, or otherwise it would be hard to explain why e.g. YouTube stuck with a purely ad-driven model for so long. Also subscribers usually get unlimited content for a flat fee whereas ads-based users pay incrementally for bandwidth and resources consumed.

I think it's possibly useful to think of the revenue streams as a form of diversification. For example, there's value in Google diversifying some of their dependence on ad revenue.
After getting my steam deck, I stopped buying Switch games. I even re-bought a couple of favorites (Slay the Spire, Monster Train) since I find myself using the switch less and less.

The deck is similarly sized, of higher quality and power, more versatile, and just as easy to use. Plus the backbone of the deck is a long-lived downloadable game service that still has my games from over a decade ago. And of course, it's also an incredible emulation machine and a full Linux desktop.
I'm never using a service with ads. Ever.

If I pay for it, it shouldn't have ads.

I have prime but not for prime video because I practically never use it.

This means I'll use it less and I'll consider the value of the prime offering worse than before.
Does it say anywhere if the $139 a year package will show ads?
“There was a time cable had no ads” and “there was a time you could spend additional money to buy separate ad-free channels on top of dozens of relayed broadcast channels and dozens to hundreds of basic cable channels, all with ads, on cable” are... very different claims.

And using the latter to decry an evolving norm of it being possible to spend additional money to get the entire service ad-free on top of the basic cost of an (ad-supported) streaming service is... odd.
> I also have another alias which will SSH into my shared hosting, shortening ~70 characters down to just `sshchuck`.

You can also accomplish this by adding `chuck` to your `~/.ssh/config`. IMO it's better to do it that way because you don't break tab completion. Indeed, if your shell is setup for it you should be able to tab complete any entry in your SSH config.
Medtech Coffee Chat
I'm currently building out a medtech startup and coming from big corporate it'd be refreshing to meet folks in this space. I'm in LA on the west side. Feel free to hit me up if you're down.
> Breaking up Microsoft wouldn't necessarily produce more proper Office alternatives.

Oh, it absolutely would.

Break Microsoft into the "Office Apps" and "Office EMail" and "Public Email" pieces and prevent them from talking to one another by backdoor APIs. You will get all manner of competitors popping up once the APIs required to do what is needed are all public.

The biggest problem in competing with Microsoft is the integration. If you force Microsoft, itself, to have to use the same public integration as everybody else, screaming will ensue.