skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
I've been snagged by a few markets that were in the high 90s or low 10s and looked like free money, but ended up resolving the other way. It's usually either 1) there was some subtlety in how the market was written that causes it to resolve unexpectedly or 2) a true inversion - it just seems like human nature to under-predict how often they actually happen.
This is a great comment.

Taking this further, if big data can eradicate the consumer surplus, then maybe big data could make price controls more feasible. Maybe big data actually could make a command economy kinda work.
Do they have to report the actual day of the trade? It seems possible to backtest their trades too.
It's funny you say that, because that's more or less how non-tech people seem to think about programming. It's not naturally intuitive to them that renaming files, rocket trajectory simulation, and data analytics are fundamentally different problems, and that a computer is just a tool that anyone can learn to program if they already understand those problems.

I know someone who's relied on the same consultancy company for all things tech related since the early 90's. If they don't know how to do something, like build a website, they just outsource it on upwork or something, and charge a 10:1 markup.
The financial system is seemingly totally disconnected from reality but I wonder if that's really true. "Reality" is an unfathomably complex global economy. There is a difference between nonsensical vs too complex to reliably predict.
Almost every high level, Michelin type restaurant does this
Had a smaller private boat for our trip to pyramiden, but the wind got strong and whipped up large waves on the return trip so had to go back to Pyramiden when we got to more open sea. Luckily we were able to get a ride on a larger tourist boat crewed by Philippines. The Russians working in Pyramiden were taking a helicopter the next day as they were closing for the season.
Trip back took like 5 hours, most of the tourists spent the trip on the floor puking in bags while we walked over them to order beer from the bar and talk to the Philippine crew.
How does one get this information about congressional trades?
>Without advertising, the world would be filled with large companies with no incentive to innovate because it would be impossible to discover their competitors.

And yet we have this world anyway.
Is DK2 considered a straight upgrade from DK1? Or did they mechanistically go down different paths and each has something unique to contribute?
Cities Where Population Has Decreased the Most – 2023
I thought we only had algorithms to do this in hexadecimal or other power-of-2 bases. Looks like arbitrary bases including base 10 have been doable since 1996!
I might be misunderstanding what you are saying, but if there are less than 600k homeless people in America and over 15 million vacant homes, it doesn't seem to be "caused by the physical reality of there being too few homes for the number of people".
not very useful. no comparison of S&P 500 and it stops in early 2023 and starts in 2020. a 3 year backtest that ends in early 2023 and ignores the bull market that began in 2023 is enough to prove anything.
I usually scale these to "if we fined a normal person". In this case, a proportional fine to a person is about $3.91.
As far as I know, ProPublica has never said it received tax information on every American, just the wealthiest. So I'm not sure it's the largest breach in history. Still, it does seem like the leak is a story in itself.

For what it's worth, here's their ethical justification:

> Many will ask about the ethics of publishing such private data. We are doing so — quite selectively and carefully — because we believe it serves the public interest in fundamental ways, allowing readers to see patterns that were until now hidden. [0]

And their legal justification:

> A federal law ostensibly makes it a criminal offense to disclose tax return information. But we do not believe that law would be constitutional if applied to bar or sanction publication of a story in the public interest when the news organization did not itself remove the information from the control of the IRS or solicit anyone else to do so — as we did not. [0]

They also note that tax records are public in certain jurisdictions, including in Sweden, Norway, and the state of Wisconsin.

[0] https://www.propublica.org/article/why-we-are-publishing-the...
Yeah, I thought that part was weird. I have not had too much trouble finding ways to for digital downloads. For Japanese bands I like, I have to do some weird shenanigans to get Japanese sites to let me pay them, but it's not like the digital downloads don't exist at all.
at the same time let's remove the immunity of politicians and prevent long terms that keep people in office until they die.
> Also, you could be making tons of money right now! How's that going?

as someone who has spent most of their career working on trading floors watching professional traders do their jobs

I'm perfectly happy staying the hell away from prediction "markets", thank you very much
> it raises the question of why Buffett made one choice for his own portfolio and the opposite choice for Berkshire’s investors

You can't actually determine that from tax returns. For all you can tell from returns the transaction could have been intended to trigger taxes or to change allocations between account types (e.g. to move a position from a taxable account to an IRA), and was matched by another transaction that preserved the position.

Similarly, you can't tell if the timing was controlled by the tax payer or if it was some long-set-in-advance programmatic trade (it's also pretty hard to tell if it was triggered by a derivatives contract). AFAICT the article also makes no effort to establish he was personally aware of BRK's plans in those securities, which would be a necessary condition for a potential conflict.

Perhaps there is substance here but if he was engaging in crooked trading you would expect to see a systematic pattern of it, not two isolated trades that didn't even appear to produce an outsized benefit for him.

Tax information is as easily misleading as it is revealing.
I mostly agree with your point about it being off topic. However I wonder what decides what’s the threshold to separate the art from the artist metaphorically speaking. Not that I don’t think the different shades of grey shouldn’t be discussed in general, but if this was someone else with more controversial issues (eg Stallman) the discussion would be different, and some/many wouldn’t have considered that off topic to the discussion. Anyway, such things are fortunately not critical. (Fwiw I’m not particularly for or against what Jeff has written from an ideological view)
This is super interesting. The delay between the transaction and the disclosure may not be much of a handicap if lawmakers are making the purchases far in advance of the events to come. Has anyone run a historical backtest of this strategy?
The S&P 500 is up around 16% over the same period, without counting dividends. With dividends, you’d be at around 18%. So… this strategy isn’t particularly impressive unless it can continue this trend over several more years.
Well without seeming condescending usually a product sells for $ and that's it. So just let me pay for something without all the other nonsense.
The spotify app has become so ridiculously bad I can't use it anymore. I found out about Zotify [1], which can rip my entire collection from spotify. The API rate limits anything faster than real time listening though, so it'll take a few weeks to download everything.

[1] https://zotify.xyz/
it is probably hard to do because the data is hard to obtain or analyze in the correct context
Hopefully they'll come out with a 32" 6K iMac with Target Display Mode. ;-)
The two graphs have visibly quite different volatilities. A number like 20% is not meaningful unless you also somehow state the risk, eg in terms of volatility or beta or other measures.
In my case, I wasn't referring to indians, I meant chinese immigrants. My last few managers have been Indian immigrants and they all had diverse teams. I'm sure it does happen though.
The yahoo link you reference in [1] notes “All numbers in thousands”

I think you might be off by 3 orders of magnitude and google could “afford” to pay every homeless person a thousand times more than you’re suggesting.

I further think that undermines your argument about the problem being fundamentally intractable due to the scale.
Bulk generating credit card numbers that can be charged a reservation fee?
Cue the "safety colors aren't necessary, obviously, Musk is richer than you so he knows better about everything" statements.

Sorry. I get the working 80 hours a week for a month, I've done that for passion and not money. But not the "boss's sensory triggers outweigh our safety" thing.
Honestly, I'd be shocked if HFT firms hadn't integrated all this knowledge into their algorithms ages ago, removing any potential alpha. More likely I think is just that the market has gone up significantly since May 2022, and good stocks disproportionately do very well in an upmarket. For instance, QQQ, is up 31% in the same time period.
Slightly higher boiling point? Fewer antimicrobial additives required?
Yeah, probably had nothing to do with Qualcomm acquiring Nuvia, etc.
> Is there a legitimate argument for keeping this legal and not pursuing an expansion of existing insider trading laws?

What existing insider trading laws?
First time seeing JWT instead of JWST
So it’s still a prison kind of since Amazon owns it?
tl;dr - this is the MoveIt (file transfer automation software) hack that’s been known since summer. More than just Maine impacted. The news here is just the state acknowledging the impact.
> I avoid calling organizations as I know I will be on hold forever, when I finally do get through to someone usually they provide another number to call and the process repeats.

This just gave me a business idea for an “AI startup”…
Rare monotreme rediscovered in *Indonesian-occupied West Papua.

Merdeka!
It is hard to run a backtest when the actual strategy cannot be explicated precisely. For example, you would need to know the size of the account/capital. Just saying that a congress person sells $1 million of microsoft is useless unless you know when it was purchased how much capital total etc.
Radical proposal: Rather than trying to police leakage of insider information,
level the playing field for both politicians and fed employees by
creating a dozen or so national mutual funds of at least 1,000 equity positions each that intend to model the US economy as a whole. Anyone can invest in them, but all US Federal employees and immediate family members are required to liquidate all other positions and hold only national funds. If the economy and funds do well, all federal folks profit. Distribute fund management among multiple fund management firms.
House: https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/FinancialDisclosure

Senate: https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/home/

Background: https://campaignlegal.org/update/how-congress-hides-stock-ho...
The post says “The market has been flat during the same time period.”, which is not true.
I would love that. The trip would take a few weeks though right?
This leak apparently also included medical records and insurance information.
The, literally, million dollar question. Self-reported data success means nothing to me without this
I've heard this argument before: you're fully capable of making tons of money, but not particularly interested in proving it for some reason.
San in berlin does this. Im surprised at how many users on hn have never experienced or even heard of the practice considering the average income of the group.
3 years is not far enough to draw any meaningful conclusion and it abruptly ends in early 2023.
https://blog.google/technology/ai/notebooklm-google-ai/
It's pretty much the worst; you bring a child to this world without their consent. And the kid will live through the death of their parents, and then unavoidably die themselves. Read about antinatalism
Why in the world would somebody be complaining about the first one? Obviously the second one is a long standing, often talked about issue and is what they mean. Don't play dumb.
What's not technical about it? It tells you what the new advancements in the M3/A17 GPUs are, what you should look out for, and how you can take advantage of them. It provides enough information so you can understand what technical tradeoffs you need to make when you target M3 / A17 GPUs. E.g. Register pressure is a real concern in large shaders, and this helps explain how the behavior would be different under a dynamic allocation scheme. It explains how the ray tracing acceleration works, and how it reorders the different intersection calls and how you should avoid intersection queries.

There are some hyperbole interjected about how incredible the performance is but that's only in between the useful data. (I did chuckle at the… enthusiasm of the speaker though)

This isn't a technical document for GPU designers. Apple doesn't really need or want you to understand exactly how the implementation works because that's basically trade secret for them. This is aimed at letting app / game developers know how they should optimize for the new GPUs, since previously Apple just made some ambiguous remarks about some of these new technology ("Dynamic Caching") without explaining what they meant.

But yes, I do like how the Asahi folks tend to end up documenting a lot of how these hardware works, but they also only have public information like this to start from so these are still useful info to have for them.
What I do with my leisure time is none of your business.
That shouldn't be hard, we have historical stock market data that we can use. The strategy would enter/exit positions on the day that the disclosures were released, see if it beats the market.
Phone queues are frustrating. But I'm not there to get mindless text generated back at me. I've already experienced it. Reminds me of all the dystopian art trying to depict the human despair and powerlessness of facing the system that society has created.
Vinyl and cassette are the most common right now for physical-exclusive stuff. CD sales are very mixed- you can do well or barely sell at all, even for established names, and the startup costs for a pressing are higher than with tapes. And if it's on CD it might as well be a download anyway.
Immigration is brutal and absurd!! One can waste their whole life waiting for a piece of paper!!!
Very funny seeing this here as I've just bodged an internal DVD drive and SATA-to-USB connector to rip a Placebo CD I bought on eBay. My brother has been snickering about this for quite some time.
SongShift also works really well in my experience. I only use Apple Music in the car these days because its UX is safer/saner than Spotify's. SongShift makes it easy to keep them synced up.
25 million is chump change to Apple. To whatever extent the practice was deviously purposeful, this ruling only emboldens that urge.
Unfortunately the stock market is not (reflective of) the economy? It seems reasonable to force them to diversify nonetheless.
What is the meaning of life?

When will humans live in space?

Why am I depressed?

When will world war III happen?

Compute this math equation (function calling and compute engines will help with this)
Thanks for this! I'll be using it. [0]

0: "Let me just open spotify to listen to.. NO, I don't want last year's recap... NO, I don't want to follow my friend's playlist.. NO, I don't want to try browsing your recommended audiobooks.. OK, now that those popups are gone, what was I .. Ah yes! This song, here it is. Play. .... No? Play. It's not playing. Maybe close and reopen the app?" <-- this happens often. Spotify Premium, the app that consistently fails at the literal one thing it's supposed to do, play music.
What about state and local gov employees?
Typing "@dang" does not actually do anything. Write to the mods using the Contact email at the bottom of the page.
> Legislators can change the rules

Let's stop pretending that immigration law can be changed in the current political climate.

It's a remote, theoretical possibility, rather than a practical one.
Actually I've watched much more, be it movies, or TV-Series. It's just that the ones I've listed above left a more lasting impression on me, than some blockbusters I didn't mention, or that I'd consider them 'rewatchable' (Which I rarely (want to) do anyways).

Let's take Breaking Bad for instance, I did binge-watch that (while being stoned) and remember it as cringe-worthy. Nope, won't watch again. Then there was Continuum, which I know I've watched in full(sober, this time) and I can't even remember anything. Had to be too generic for me, I think?

What else, the Sarah Connor Chronicles. Mostly boring, except the scene where some hispanic Chica outstared her, and she learned that from her. That was funny for me :-)

Oh, one more, because I sometimes felt like that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falling_Down

Edit: Err... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brainstorm_(1983_film) How could I forget that?
The first-sale doctrine says the ticket industry could not, in fact, stop reselling.

That said, your plan is one ticket per identified person, that you can't buy 4 tickets at a time for you and your friends? Not sure that'll fly, even with people who hate Ticketmaster.
Because if there was actually a shortage of $80k employees the salary would increase. There is no better way to determine where there’s a shortage than the salary.
Nah, the Verge article is also updated to mention that development. There's a ton of discussion over there.
Give me my real American corn syrup - other less-free countries can keep their 'real' sugar!!
> And yet they become obsolete in a couple of years of time unlike the likes of other products like say for example, ThinkPads.

Last I checked Apple products get about 7 years of updates. My 2016 MacBook Pro is falling off the edge of security updates about now.

I'd prefer 10 years, but it's more than two.

The exception may be more recent intel Macs which are likely to be obsoleted at a faster rate due to the ARM/Apple Silicon transition. Though I guess you can still run Windows. ;-p
Great to see the perception of energy-waste leading to new ventures. In the past century wasted energy had become a blind-spot (except when it led to some environmental effects - killing fish for example).

Thought was seldom given to re-using heat (let alone storing it) after its primary purpose. (I don't recall ever seeing any meta-survey of the scope of this near-blindness ... but it has to have become enormous ...) Home-heating solutions have usually been limited to the cost for consumers rather than the environment. That will have to change drastically.
It's hard to find a calculator/data source that takes dividends into account, but it looks like if you bought an S&P500 index fund in May 2022 you'd be up around 18% depending on which day you purchased. So not very dramatic IMO
> I've heard this argument before: you're fully capable of making tons of money, but not particularly interested in proving it for some reason.

you have completely misunderstood

I have zero interest in losing money by "investing" in outcomes of events that are essentially random

because it's not investing, it's gambling
Maybe they were being faschetious
With regards to the gorilla analogy, I think for all intents and purposes we've already knee-capped the evolutionary process of humanity with modern medicine (not going backwards ala Idiocracy, but not going forwards either). We might need to be a little bit "picky" (read: deliberate) in the future if we want to keep progressing. I believe this is the ethos of trans-humanists.

I'm not Steve Wozniak so if I did want him to be immortal I'm pretty sure that would not be selfishness. I'm also unsure why you think whichever human is "replacing" Woz in this hypothetical is going to up the level of diversity.

All that said, I actually do disagree with the fundamental premise that resources are finite in a meaningful way and that one person's immortality is stealing from someone else in a zero-sum game. Intelligent life is not zero-sum, and it is just as likely that Immortal Woz would develop a new farming technology that allows X extra people to exist than that he would actually require enough resources to be a net negative.
Some H1Bs don't even want to be promoted past senior due to higher risk at staff.

Perfect workers.
Debugging tricks in the browser
My bank generates virtual numbers for free
The Toronto system uses heat exchangers on the incoming tap water supply. So everyone (close to that leg of the water treatment system) gets slightly warmer tap water in summer time.
It can run on Linux/Steam Deck apparently:

https://www.reddit.com/r/playnite/comments/15q2x16/i_install...

I have only used it on my Windows install, so I can't recommend this.
Separately, retail investors also outperform the S&P on average: https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/who-you-calling-dumb-mone...

> The average individual-investor stock portfolio has risen about 150% since the beginning of 2014, according to investment research firm Vanda Research, which began tracking the data nine years ago. That beats the S&P 500’s roughly 140% during the same period.
This might technically work, but everyone would hate it. And that’s why it won’t happen, because people would hate it so much that it would have to be enacted en masse, and there’s no way to coordinate that.
OpenAI just launched their RAG with the Assistants feature that can ingest a fair bit of documents you choose to upload. So while not enterprise grade just yet, there is immediate utility on the horizon and of course other services have provided something like this for months now.

To the parent's point, when the dust settles something like this will probably be commoditized at scale and will likely have a sizable impact on society.
Yeah fine but this is a straight lift of the Times content. Thread should be moved.
> Also, why do the Nazis have "Socialist" in their moniker if they were fascist

I can't tell if you're being serious
And I thought Norway was overdoing it with their show of (supposedly not military) force in the form of a "Research" destroyer they kept docked off of Longyearbyen for a while.
They work a lot like binary options, which can fool a lot of unsophisticated investors. The line is a lot thinner between prediction markets and gambling.
Which is exactly my point. Authors should define such technical/unusual language.
What is the cost of your project? Could you share more information? I was looking to do something similar.
Can you leave ME enough money to do anything but not enough to do nothing?
In this case the markets are overpredicting inversions; there's at most a very small difference between how often markets predicted at 5% and markets predicted at 20% resolve as "no." Same for the 75%-95% range.
They have open sourced a good deal of the infrastructure:

https://github.com/mullvad/system-transparency
Specifically for monospace fonts, it's not obvious to me how any further work could fix it.

The same letterform having different widths just looks bad and wrong.

It's not like kerning, which always looks good when done well (for proportional fonts).
The only organization that doesn't take outside money is the federal government, and they take the consent of the people to rule instead (quite a bit more valuable).
Marijuana Use Tied to Heart Failure, MI, Stroke