skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> There are obvious parallels with the Lethby case. Statements in de Berk’s diary about ‘a very great secret’ and a ‘compulsion’ on a day that a patient had died were given a sinister interpretation.

They didn't include any examples of the parallel. This goes over some of the notes:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/oct/13/lucy-letby-p...

> On another, she wrote “I am a horrible evil person” and on another in capital letters: “I AM EVIL I DID THIS,” the jury was told.

> She also wrote on the note: “There are no words”, “I can’t breathe”, “kill myself”, “I haven’t done anything wrong”, “how can I get through it?” and “I am an awful person”. She had also written “No Hope” and “Panic Fear” and then circled in capital letters “HATE”.

Personally, I don't think any of this is strong evidence, since she contradicts herself a bit. But the notes more directly address the murders because she wrote them in response to the accusations. It isn't as vague as a diary entry mentioning a secret.

And as far as I know, they had more evidence in the form of testimony from experts suggesting the babies were killed by injecting them with air, but I'm sure there are reasons to be skeptical of that.

Mainly, I don't know how strongly any statistical "evidence" was presented in court, how much the jury depended on it in their guilty verdict, and how the UK court system works, so I don't have a strong opinion. But I also don't believe a not-guilty person would think to write anything like what she wrote in those notes.

One last thing I'm curious about and have never heard definitive information on is whether babies stopped dying when they took Letby out of the NICU or whatever they call it. I suppose that might still be accounted for in this statistical coincidence element the RSS and other statisticians are discussing.
Just for clarity: statistics were not used in the Letby prosecution.

The problem with Letby is that a serial killer was able to hide because finding a rare event (a member of staff murdering multiple babies) is hard to do in the noise (the mish mash of data available).

Currently the English NHS is moving away from SIRI (Serious Incident Requiring Investigation) to PSIRF (Patient Safety Incident Response Framework) which focuses a lot more on "no blame" and "open culture", so it's important that NHS Trusts get the stats right to be able to detect and understand these very rare events.
If anything, it feels like a return to the fundamentals of web.

React is the aberrant abstraction that layered a really broken MVC-ish layer on web front ends.
Who has the time? We're all grinding to make money. Occasionally I play some online games with friends, but you'd be surprised how many times some of them can't make it because they're working OT to cover child support.
And yet the average has not increased, and so you must be suggesting that Target and 'other major retailers' have had increased theft, and some equal number of others have apparently been gifted with negative theft.
> Unfortunately, if this becomes popular, I suspect it'll merely turn into another useless dogma like SOLID and OOP and whatever other buzzwordy acronym-paradigms came before.

Yes, but that said, if there’s gonna be a dogma I think this one is pretty good. To me, software engineering is the art of curbing complexity.

I can see a couple of missteps:

- simplicity can be confused with the appearance of simplicity. Yaml is a great example of this phenomenon.

- simplicity is subjective, and should ideally be measured by outsiders. However, as we all know decisions and moat belong mostly to insiders, senior engineers that often want to flex and build moat. There’s a risk of curse of knowledge because you can just say “this is simple to me (and if you don’t get it you’re stupid)”

- when more people can understand something, you can get more chefs in the kitchen. This is not a problem with simplicity but can be a problem of governance.

- engineers can move visible complexity around to areas of less scrutiny. For instance, if there’s a “rule” that a module should be simple, you can break it into two and say they are each simple (even if they’re coupled and it’s only a cosmetic modularization)

- complexity from dependencies, concurrency, memory usage etc can fly under the radar, especially for less experienced/gung ho engineers.

To be clear, I still like this new trend, these are just some immediate issues that come to mind.
Agree! In fact, while you wrote this I made an edit (last sentence) to address that. It was supposed to be my core point but I had somehow left it implicit.
> Discussion doesn't necessarily or even reliably lead to "absolute truth"

Nobody says discussion is a source of it, or where you obtain some, but you can discuss it. The aim of discussion is discussion itself, not posing a guarantee that someone will walk away enlightened.
> or should we read this article to imply Lucy herself might be innocent?

No, the point being made is that a murderer was able to evade detection because her employing organisation did not understand the data they had, because they did not understand statistics.
Crowdfunded Companies?
As a rule, I don't buy from or invest in crowdfunded companies. For example, https://aptera.us/ have been trying to bring a solar car to market since 2019, but just keep delaying the release and asking for more money.
My rational is that if their fundamentals were solid, they would be able to get the funding from banks or private equity, instead of begging the general public for money.
I know there are quite a few aptera supporters on here, so I'd like to know HN's view on the subject. Do you do your due diligence before sending money to these companies?
Yes that is the one
A proof by contradiction works by assuming something incorrect, and using it to prove various incorrect things until finally we manage to prove both p and not p for some proposition p. Being able to prove such an absurdity shows that the assumptions must be wrong.

In this case we can prove that the constructed number both is prime (it's not divided by ANY prime hence it's prime) and isn't prime (it's not in the list hence it's not prime).
Hogei, twenty in basque, is said to be related to other Celtic languages, for example, ugain in Welsh and ugent in Breton. I miss a note in https://www.omniglot.com/celtiadur/2023/07/11/twenty/.
I used the original flattr and apparently missed the reboot too. Flattr 1 was dead for too long to carry me over anyway.
I can't tell from your comment: are you saying that TwentyCRM is not opinionated or enforcing business rule best practices, or is this just a general blanket statement about CRMs that may or may not be relevant to the submission?
> I have never met a single manager at any large company that has not said they want to be data driven.

Grinding Gear Games - developers of Path of Exile famously said that they dont use data (probably because they dont know how to interpret it) - explains why their game is very poorly balanced.

On a side note, everyone knows that the game is infested by bots... everyone apart from GGG. There was a post by them, where they noted how it was strange that 15% of players did not make a certain quest... Guess what: bots (at that time) werent advanced enough to make that quest.
An advert for grammarly inserted by youtube and an advert for grammarly inserted by the content creator. Both are adverts.
I think the reason why "you can't beat the market" is the simple fact that you are part of the market. If you are very, very good, such that any trade you make will always win, then the market just don't want to play any more. The feedback response from the market is extremely precise; do you make money or not? If you don't, you will change your strategy until you start making money or you just stop playing. The moment you start benefiting from some exploit, the market will immediately response to their loss by changing their strategy.

This is of course assuming that we are at a level playing field. I don't believe for one second that insider trading is not prevalent.
The expert statistical analysis alluded to is simply the framework for causal inference. Had Letby not been on duty for a similar group of patients, would the number of patients who had died been the same?

If the answer is no, then a follow on question regarding whether or not factors associated with Letby could have resulted in the deaths rather than Letby herself. This could be a fellow worker who always worked in tandem with her etc.

Finding the appropriate set of data and applying statistical techniques for this is not trivial hence the expert mention.
She kept notes, apparently there was an abundance of evidence in her home, doctors had raised concerns.

This isn't a case of relying solely on data, rather the data bear out what everything else suggests.
That. That's the excuse! That a rich millionaire plays around with grenades in airplanes right after a coup?

Okay cool cool.

Having said all that, the Russian media will spin this story. Making jokes on every channel about the stupid Wagner group. Making skits. In 3 months the Russian people will have a new meme word for people who are so dumb they play with grabades on planes.
Don't worry. When people take time to resist a social change it usually means it's too late.
So, what's the benefit of using this over something like faker?

Isn't the point of most of these identity generation tools to generate huge amounts of test data? This would just make that free process cost something.
The meaningless computer worlds of cognitive science
In two cases, the victim died by insulin overdose, Letby herself admitted that the only possible explanation was foul play. That means there is a killer on the ward. The police interviewed the other nurse on the shift, and she was cleared. Even if Letby gets acquitted from the other cases, her sentencing likely will not change.

One challenge for the defence was that there are few studies on injecting air in small babies for obvious reasons. Air embolisms are very painful, and such a study wouldn't pass ethics approval, let alone parental consent.
While the statisticians are right to be cautious about clusters of deaths => serial killer, we also have to remember that a 9 month trial presented lots of evidence to a jury, they deliberated for over a week, and returned seven guilty verdicts. Unless you were also sitting at that trial or have read every line of court transcript, it would be very unwise to start claiming there's a miscarriage of justice.
I'm not saying they are, but if China is mid economic ruin, that might actually be a reason for them to favor conflict. War is often about the spoils, and historically has been used to bolster state coffers in the face of mismanagement, failure or shoddy tax collection.

I'm not sure a failing China is less likely to go to war, than one who "can afford it". Look at Japan pre-WWII. They basically went to war to refresh the coffers of Empire.
Having used Ansible to easily mange AWS, I have been horrified by how my new org using Terraform for AWS, precisely because TF maintains state. It is both hard to develop in a team and a security nightmare.

They diligently recorded all secrets in AWS Secrets Manager. They used IAM roles and policies to control who can see which environment’s secrets. Great!

But then I discovered all the secrets in PLAIN TEXT dumped into the state file?! And this is known behavior that Hashicorp defends as reasonable. They suggest you just encrypt the state file. So the next time there’s a big oil spill, let’s just throw a big blanket over it and call it a day.

Terraform’s solution swiftly obliterates all the audit, key rotation, separation of duties built into secrets manager. Indeed, what is the point of using Secrets Manager at all if you use Terraform?

Next, they recorded state in a hit repo. So all those secrets are committed to the repo. So now how am I supposed to encrypt the state file? What a disaster.

But wait. There’s more. With the team growing, how are we supposed to manage shared resources? Do I have to run tf apply, wait for completion, and then immediately commit and push, and hope I don’t have to manually manage a state file merge conflict? Or should I use some bizarre, self-built mutex?

Ugh. Terraform is the worst. I was always unimpressed by its feature set and documentation. Now I hate it. I don’t understand why it is so popular which there are such better alternatives.
I stand very much corrected and wasn’t trying to make an allegation…

Your pricing page says pretty much the opposite and is quite confusing — it literally just shows “Free” vs. “Grow” and no option for self hosting made clear
How do non-indians rank into the caste system? If there is caste discrimination then it seems like we generally have a bad actor working for an in-group rather than for the company.
Without striking they have almost zero power.

It’s the same as a company that can’t fire anyone.
I get something similar, like a visual free-association thing while falling asleep. It seems related to https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_cinema
Learn like a traveller and not like a tourist (10 mins read)
This is one of my recent post. Based on my experience, I have tried to outline challenges a learner faces through out their journey to mastery. Looking forward for inputs. Thanks.
In Praise of BC/AD, Not BCE/CE
This is so wild to me I feel like there must be a misunderstanding lol.

I apparently have excellent spatial awareness and reasoning. I can imagine shapes and scenes. Rotate a shape and have a good crack at sketching it from my mind.

But I would never describe this as similar to actually seeing in any way. If I had to describe what I experience after reading through a lot of these descriptions it would be "knowing". When I visualize something it's like I'm "knowing" it's shape, size, position, and etc. But it's nowhere and I'm certainly not seeing it in any way that's meaningfully similar to actual sight.
Wow, the hubris in this comment... Almost as much as in the infamous Dropbox comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9224

You too might be a Hubris News celebrity one day.
Thank you! I tried to edit the post but I couldn't
edit: wrong, can't delete
Yes, that one's bad too.

But the main evidence for this is that he's an anarchist. Graeber is not around to defend this position seeing as he's not alive, but anarchists are all very happy to talk about their philosophy, they will answer any question you give them, and their answers instantly disprove it and show they shouldn't be trusted to implement any of it. Like if you ask where insulin comes from they'll just say doctors will make it in their backyards as a hobby.

Recent example of this is Seattle's CHAZ where the police went away for a few weeks, they posted some anarchist guards, and they instantly shot and killed a black teenager because they thought he was a criminal.
Vocal fry is very common in Finnish. I would consider it to be part of a person's accent just like their vowel shapes.
But I want to say that Fury will be continuously maintained. I created it 4 years ago, open sourced it in 2023.07. I've maintained it with little credits for 4 years. Now with it open-sourced, it will just make me put more efforts on it.

But on the other hand, the success of fury does not depend on whether I put in enough effort but on whether I can build a thriving community to involve more people to join us. I must admit that I am still learning in this area and have a long way to go.
Those arguments included that the suspicious deaths all lined up perfectly with Lucy Letby's shifts, that she was often caught interacting with those babies when she had been instructed not to, and that when she was taken off the ward the deaths instantly stopped. That is a level of causality checking far stronger than most Bayesian analyses.
> - Instead of 4-7% payment processing fees, it can be effectively zero[1]

There are disadvantages to using Layer 2 of a blockchain, and you are ignoring the costs of on-boarding and off-boarding from cryptocurrency.

> - Users of the platform could be given more control such as forking the OSS protocol if the core devs go off the rails or try to extract more than what users feel it’s worth. This is especially interesting given the recent polarizing changes to Patreon and Bandcamp’s business structures.

In this case you're speaking of doing Patreon on the blockchain, not merely using cryptocurrency transactions? How would that work and how wouldn't it be cheaper and easier to do with a public, possibly federated, server running a FOSS Patreon software?

> - Settlement times can be measured in minutes or hours rather than days, weeks, or months.

Are settlement times going down with FedNow? And even CC transactions take seconds, do the content creators care that much about getting the money immediately and isn't that a greater fraud risk?

> - Anonymity and local-first data privacy could be achieved, at least theoretically. Practically, very few L2s have yet to reach complete privacy using zero knowledge proofs and related cryptography.

I admit to not being familiar with the situation but aren't all transactions public on the blockchain? How that can be anonymous unless you're using something like Monero? And I'm not sure what local-first data there is, you meaning having the paywalled content downloaded to your device if you subscribe?

> - Mitigating centralizing factors such as Patreon’s control over what is a morally acceptable revenue stream. Content like NSFW art might be currently acceptable, but this could change on a dime if the company decides to change its values.

What about illegally acceptable revenue streams? How would such a platform stop being banned due to illegal content?
Lessons from bootstrapped companies founded by software engineers
Oil, Gas, Petrol Prices After Hamas Gaza Incursion into Israel
https://archive.ph/F4rHh
Depends on your language for ressources and what you are looking for.

Unit testing is supposed to test the code alone with no external dependecy (db, API,...), that's when you need mocks/stubs. Unit testing helps a lot with refactoring and code quality.

Integration tests are here to ensure your app/module will work fine once deployed.

I don't have any particular recommendation for a site or else, I think the best is to do some research, make up your own mind and see what suits best your case/needs.
[deletia, cuz I misread the article.]
I like the idea of an open source CRM, it means you can take it and do the customizations in-house (as opposed to paying consultants to do it) or both. Out of the box and on a small scale, this feels very much like a self-hosted version of Notion.
Also work life balance is usually better in big corp you actually can clock that 9:5 and go home.
You're linking to your own post, self-judge that it's a good post, it has a call-to-action for a "free of charge consultation" at the bottom (which, ironically, leads to a page with 2 separate loading bars before still showing a flash of unstyled content) where you will presumably (based on the homepage and pricing page) be sold a competing product to TwentyCRM. Is there any redeeming way in which your comment is not just spam / trying to use this thread as free advertising space?
I'm not sure about that, Facebook was used because that's where people were, but for the example Rwanda, they used the radio.

But it seems Facebook actually was the introduction to mass communications for a lot of people according to the articles, so yes, very good chance in this case.
> If the markets were truly efficient, randomly picking stocks would beat SPX ~50% of the time. Since markets are not super efficient, basic exposure to performance factors (small cap, value, momentum...) puts you at a fairly high likelyhood of beating SPX.

This assumes that the expected return of a single, randomly-picked stock is symmetrically-distributed. It is not, single stock returns are highly skewed and "lottery like". Index returns come from the fact that a small number of stocks do exceptionally well, while most of them do poorly.

This becomes even worse if we talk about timing: stock returns come from relatively short periods of doing really well, if you miss that because you are out of the market for some reason, you lose out on the vast majority of the index return.

Sorry, I don't have specific sources to cite. This comes from stuff I've picked up listening to the Rational Reminder podcast (https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast-directory), which have very well researched episodes as well as guest interviews with leading academic finance researchers. I'll try to dig up the relevant episodes, which do cite sources.

Edit: here is some sources:

1. https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/insights/singled-out-histo...

2. https://assets.jpmprivatebank.com/content/dam/jpm-wm-aem/glo...

Quote from this last one: "[...] around 40% of
the time a concentrated position in a single stock experienced negative absolute returns, in which case it would have underperformed a simple position in cash. And around 2/3 of the time, a concentrated position in a single
stock would have underperformed a diversified position in the Russell 3000 Index. While the most successful
companies generated massive wealth over the long run, only around 10% of all stocks since 1980 met the
definition of “megawinners”."
Considering I've voted only democratic in every election in my life, and volunteered to help progressive candidates manage their campaigns in swing states, you're waaaay off base on my politics.
why are they even bothering with something no sane person would ever want
The point is that he got banned for de-escalation of violence.
Lise Meitner - Why the 'Mother of the Atomic Bomb' Never Won a Nobel Prize
CancelQuora
On the afternoon of the conviction, there was an expert criminal psychiatrist on BBC radio who had been following the trial closely. Apparently those notes, though they made all the headlines, played little part in her conviction, and are typical for someone suffering stress &| depression.

The thing that did for her apparently were messages she had sent some of the parents, the times of which contradicted her testimony she had given the police and put her clearly in the frame when she had given them an alibi.

So I'm not sure the clusters of "unlikely" cases played much role either, other than alerting authorities to there potentially being foul play.
I think the "maximize outage" is a good simplification 80% of the time, but the "goal chain" goes from there to maximum advertising revenue, and that requires happy advertisers. And in the case of reddit I'm not sure how much revenue comes from gold and how much that was harmed by people saying "don't give money to this site hosting hate-speech".