the xbox stuff I wanted to give more explanation and sourcing/perspectives without bloating the above

PS5 has won the console war, Series X's hardware advantage has been subsumed by upscaling into a meaningless "runs 840p instead of 720p input res" thing that doesn't sell consoles and Sony has actually organically built studios that pump out exclusive content that does draw in customers. Microsoft has largely failed at building that, and instead tried to buy more studios to make their content exclusive (bethesda, tried to buy nintendo and activision, etc).

Microsoft has pretty explicitly pushed all their exclusives to PC as well, meaning Series S and the Gamepass are the only interesting thing they have going. And gamepass simply hasn't been doing the necessary numbers - there was a bump in 2020/2021 from COVID, when silicon shortages meant Series S was the cheapest and most available route to a diversion during the COVID disruptions, and gamepass gave you this ready library. But 2022 and 2023 have been the great Going-Outside and the numbers have gone down not up.

In the meantime Series S is also this albatross around their neck - they have a much lower hardware baseline for game compatibility, and can't really push forward to next-gen without losing those subscribers (who are probably not going to "convert" again if it requires a $700 purchase or whatever). like it or not they are trapped by series S and gamepass now, and there is no true next-gen console on the radar (unlike sony), only a refresh.

Another problem is that all those gamepass subscribers are using the "$1/mo for 5 years" crazy promo deals too. Which is another perfect example of crazy VC growth-hacking stuff that is being rightfully burned out.

the FTC leaks are absolutely devastating and reveal a company that is so on the ropes they're looking at closing the xbox division, or pivoting it to nettop style consoles and going after appletv and switch pro (docked) market, perhaps with an upscaling-based ARM console. They are drastically underperforming the scenario in which Phil Spencer said he'd pull the plug. But it sure as fuck isn't going to be running like it currently is, in another 5-10 years, unless they get a whole lot of market traction awfully fast.

I do think it's entirely possible that Starfield was their last shot - big flagship title from a big flagship studio, and if they didn't do the gamepass numbers (and they didn't) this is the final straw. MS has very explicitly avoided weighing in on a true next-gen console and maybe they pivot or kill the division off instead. And this leak is so embarrassing and reveals how much things are so on-fire internally, that the leak itself may push them over the edge too, on top of starfield underperforming this month. This is C-suite level deliberation laid bare.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tJBC9zXYQ8&t=2511s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUPxytMLWzI

But it's stunning to see this (ostensibly) gaming pillar/institution fall apart like this... apparently they were swimming naked too. But I guess that's not surprising, their only real traction was during the XB360/PS3 era and every single other time it's been a money pit they dump cash into in hopes of being profitable next generation... everyone kinda knew it intellectually but without the scales of losses being broken out separately, it's just an abstract point. Now we know: Xbox is losing so much cash they will probably go under shortly.

(which is a great reason to prevent them from acquiring more studios, especially when the goal is obviously to take their content exclusive to combat Sony's organic exclusives. That's anticompetitive to the core.)