I have presented evidence and have argued from the position of a backer, a project initiator and Kickstarter itself. Each of those have different goals and expectations and each of those try to ensure that their goals and expectations are satisfied even if they are not perfectly aligned.

The reality is: 40% of Kickstarters never deliver. And only a very small fraction of those results in refunds. An even smaller fraction results in legal action and only a small fraction of those results in payouts to the original backers in excess of their legal costs. So even if you are right in the narrowest possible sense the fact remains that if a Kickstarter does not deliver you are likely going to lose your money.

Backers should be aware of this, should never back a project with money they can't afford to lose and should assume that there is a 40% or so chance that their money will be gone.

In 2012 there were enough people saying the same thing. This all started with arguments that Kickstarter is pre-ordering and that it functions as a store. Neither of these are true.

The simple reality is that you are giving a bunch of money to a bunch of strangers who will possibly try to deliver on that which they have pinky promised to do. And that there is a very good chance that they will not. And that there is a very good chance that you will not be able - legally or otherwise - to recover your funds.

The 40% can be divided into a couple of fractions: projects that failed but where the initiator tried their hardest, projects that failed where the initiator did not try their hardest but they did make some token effort and they delivered something (broken, useless, incomplete, swag only but not the main product that was the goal of the Kickstarter in the first place) and Kickstarters where the initiators never had a chance to deliver because they underestimated the complexity or were underfunded from day 1 and finally those that are simply fraudulent where the Kickstarter itself was the goal, and not the thing the Kickstarter was about.

In all of these you probably will not see your money again and this has been the case since the earliest days of Kickstarter.

Kickstarter could - and should - do more to inform users of these stats. Kickstarter could - and should - do more to keep the backers safe from fly by night operators, but this would require Kickstarter to do more in terms of due diligence on the initiators, and that in turn could increase their liability. They have always tried to make it seem like they don't have anything to do with the actual interaction even though they are to all intents and purposes the advertisers, middle men, and merchant of record.

There are a few cases - that made the news, anyway - where backers have managed to retrieve some of the funds of the Kickstarter project initiators, usually using consumer protection laws. But this is not a structural thing and is more the exception that proves the rule: if the Kickstarter doesn't deliver your money is gone.

So: Kickstarter is 'an obligation-free playground for tinkerers' far more than it is a store, and far more than a place where you should have high expectations of seeing your money or a product in return for your money. Backing a project is not the same as buying a product. Fraud and failure happen, you likely will have little or no recourse.