skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
OpenAI is less good as an investment than their revenue curve would suggest because the US government is likely to cap the size of future training runs (to reduce AI extinction risk) and there are plenty of open-source offerings suitable for the work of fine tuning and otherwise exploiting the economic potential of models of the size of GPT-4, so it is hard to see how OpenAI would be able to construct much of a moat by which to protect their prospective future profit margins.

The idea that AI research must be regulated to prevent harms, including human extinction, is ridiculed on this site and in Silicon Valley, but policy is decided by representatives for the entire US voting population, not just the technologists of Silicon Valley, and polls show widespread skepticism in the broader population about the wisdom of continuing to create ever more capable AIs. Also, the people lobbying for a cap are disciplined, smart and well-funded.

Companies that focus on applying the models we have now will probably do OK (e.g., Google's using something analogous to GPT-4 to improve their Search service except that unlike GPT-4, Google's model can cite its sources) but OpenAI is not doing that: their focus is to increase capabilities trusting that it will become clear in the future how to use those increased capabilities to produce economic value, but that plan doesn't work very well if the government imposes a limit on the increase of capabilities.

Don't say I didn't try to warn you.

ADDED. The leader of OpenAI says that it cost OpenAI roughly 100 million dollars to provide the computing resources necessary to create GPT-4. Once that "foundational model" model was created, it could be run (deployed) on much humbler hardware; some open-source competitors to GPT-4 for example can run on a beefy Macbook. Naturally there is no practical way to stop people from running a model once it has been released to the public, so regulation will target the "training runs" such as the aforementioned training run that produced GPT-4.

The point is that there are many ways to "fine tune" a basic model to increase its economic value. GPT-4 by itself for example is useless as a search engine, but Microsoft fine-tuned it to produce something (Bing Chat, a.k.a., Sydney) that has some hope of becoming a popular search engine. You probably want to restrict your AI investments to companies good at this fine-tuning process.
In California home insurance companies cannot take into account any future forecasts (including climate change) when setting rates, only past events. There are also yearly caps on how much they can raise rates. The results of these policies on the state of home insurance in California speak for themselves.
Why wouldn't corporations and users just stick to the original AI chat model that gave them the best results the first time? I think that people are lazy about switching because it's very difficult to personally validate whether something is better or worse quickly/robustly, and when you do get bad responses it's really annoying and makes you churn back to the original model that you used.

I do sometimes wonder whether they could be replaced with a free model running on a user's local machine, however, on the other hand we might always wish to pay for best-in-class (according to some evaluation criteria, that we eventually give up on trying to self-evaluate).
I don’t think Google is a good competitor to OpenAI as a quality AI product is harmful to their search/ad business.

OpenAI is perfectly happy killing the search/ad business because they aren’t in that market. They are happy to replace a $75B search market with a $20B AI chat market. Google not so much.
Citation: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37325778
Guy with Lambo telling normies what they need. Sounds like yet another out-of-touch rich __ telling people how they should live their lives while living large himself.

I recently replaced my aging Prius with a Rav4, and the versatility improvement is so dramatic. We went from renting/borrowing trucks and vans about every month to not needing one yet. The extra few inches in every direction multiplies together to be rather significant. Plus, it has a roof rack.

I'll hang onto my sports cars, but my daily driver is forever going to be a crossover. This thing beats every hatchback, liftback, sedan, and wagon I've ever owned in every utility metric.
No Godwin necessary. There are plenty of countries like Saudi Arabia or Uganda where in 2023 your sexual orientation can be a capital offense.
Yet Another ICML Award Fiasco
"Leaks" are a cheap way to start marketing and get feedback on prospective customer sentiment.

If it were an official marketing release, management would feel compelled to build up much more marketing material around it.
Women being expected to stop their own careers and stay home as a housewife used to be quite normal and even expected in South Korea, but this has been changing quite quickly. Nowadays, many women return to work after giving birth - even quite quickly in many cases, and not by choice. Because the couples can't afford the kids otherwise.

Anecdotally: Most of my wife's circle of friends are in their early 30s to mid-30s with first children (and we're on the way to fitting this description as well) and back to work, while their mothers stopped working once they had children.

This is to say, the previous system was bad, but the new reality is in some sense worse: No, women bearing the brunt of child-bearing alone is not great, but now both parents work very hard in family-hostile work conditions to even make ends meet. Both parents working full-time is very difficult if neither employer is flexible enough not to handle "I have to pick my kid up today" or "my kid is sick".
I think the frustration we all have was that Google was the Willy Wonka factory of cool tech and services. Eagrly waiting to see what cool candy they can invent.

Now that has disappeared, many people are dissolutioned by the lack of focus and stagnation.
If you want an example of something that is almost quite literally the public square, you could look at the court case robin vs pruneyard.

In this case, the government forced privately owned malls to allow political protests. So yes the government has forced public squares to be open to the public and prevents private companies from censoring political speech in those public squares.

> or a mass communication system though

Common carriers quite literally are mass communication systems. What do you think common carriers "carry"? The answer is that many of them carry communication.

Things like the phone system are for mass communication.

So yes, we have laws that effect both the public square and mass communication systems.

ISPs are also communication systems and laws called "net neutrality" laws force them to do certain things.

In fact, this article itself is about how the ISP is acting illegally and is breaking existing laws about what the ISPs can censor.
Kanban is more than just a board. To have effective Kanban your process needs to:

1. Be pull based - someone only picks something new up when they have the capacity to do so. There's no "finish this set of tasks by the end of the sprint" because there are no sprints, just priorities

2. Manage work-in-process, either explicitly or implicitly. This prevents the team working on too many things at once, which leads to any given piece of work taking a long time to get to production
EV Chargers Should Be Dumber
Honestly I think this is majorly overblown. Having lived in both India and the US and being in my late 30s, I’ve never seen caste come up in any conversation even once. That’s tens of thousands of Indian people at the very least. Feels like this person is hyper aware of his caste and seems to take steps bordering on paranoia.
The issue was whoever created this didn't design a widely compelling proposition..

You had to value the bundled Google Game Pass and YouTube Music Premium to make it a good deal. Anyone who doesn't play games and uses Spotify would be under water vs just paying monthly for the phone (if payments is what makes the new phone accessible).

Also the open secret in Google Pixel lifecycle is that Google heavily subsidizes the trade in value of the prior gen phone at launch, which has meant each consecutive Pixel phone has cost me $100 or less to trade up into on an annual basis. Holding onto a Pixel phone for 2 years actually leads to a significant depreciation curve vs annual trade up.
Nice obscure reference.
Have you considered expanding this research to other fields or perhaps collaborating with sociologists to further study this systemic issue?
I miss being a paying customer. I want to pay a reasonable fee and get a good product or service with FANTASTIC customer service.
You're half right about the seats but seats that fit three across in a normal small SUV or sedan are a small share of what's available. I also think it's worth segmenting out SUVs now that everything has become an SUV. The Corolla Cross is an "SUV" but really compact. A RAV4 is an "SUV" and one of the most popular vehicles sold in the US but it's only slightly heavier than a Camry and gets about the same fuel economy (because it's basically a tall hatchback Camry). Even the next size up (Highlander) is about the same weight as a mini van (Sienna). Weight based tax seems like a good idea to me but I don't think "SUVs" are in general really the problem.
Go to the left and you'll see the old set
This makes sense assuming no car pooling.
I think the deeper reality is that people just suck at working together. There is always gonna be friction when a group of individuals try to achieve something together (time lines, slackers, miscommunication). We blame it on method X when at the end of the day its human nature and no magical method of working can completely remediate that.
Water is vital for life but that doesn't justify paying three times more for water that is only better when doing a side-by-side direct comparison but is otherwise equally tasty (assuming it is also equally healthy).

I'd totally pay 7000 euros for a smartphone if it lasts five years and there are no cheaper options of virtually equal quality, but there are.

Saw a thread on Tildes yesterday where people argued for splurging on basically every necessity of modern life except water. If I tried to spend money on everything people were arguing for, I'd spend a significant fraction of my retirement fund before I'm done, and I'm happy with budget options also (but it takes a bit of time to find the minimum necessary, rather than buying expensive and it's usually fine)
How did we end up at a point where creating life (literally) is a „not good enough reason“?
Because the space is under the car, between the wheels. I was surprised too.
IANAL, but I'm pretty sure this article is wrong. The court applied the "good faith exception" and declined to vacate the defendants' convictions because of the lack of existing precedent at the time of the search warrant. But that doesn't mean it doesn't set precedent for future cases. You could argue that the holding was dictum and therefore not binding as precedent (I think?), but that doesn't mean future courts won't take it into account.
It's a shady workaround to the kernel itself being shady with which symbols get marked GPL.
And review bombing is almost always a legitimate outcry by fans that have very little leverage against an industry riddled with anti-consumer practices. The only people that are worried about review bombing should be the creators of the games, and they should do their best to avoid making decisions that force the fan base to resort to tanking their game's score.
No, the EFF is allowed to criticize RMS as much as they want. Criticizing RMS doesn't make them hypocritical. However, linking [1] and spreading slanderous lies (I'm talking about Selam G.'s hitpieces [2] from 2019) isn't very fitting for an organization that claims to defend Internet free speech.

RMS never defended Epstein -- not even once. His only crime was being a pedantic aspie. If the EFF considers that to be good enough reason to cancel him, then yes, I think that EFF are total hypocrites. FWIW, EFF's official blog post only linked Selam G.'s hitpiece that has been thoroughly debunked elsewhere [3].

[1] https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2021/03/statement-re-election-...

[2] https://selamjie.medium.com/remove-richard-stallman-appendix...

[3] https://stallmansupport.org
I'm not certain where this is really coming from. There are certainly ways to ignore people's consent and physically force pregnancy but this article is focused on whether people are choosing to have children or not. Would you mind clarifying your statement? It's very difficult to read what you're getting at.

Also, just technically speaking, we know there are hormones that absolutely can prevent you from being able to get pregnant - that's what the pill is.
I really hate manufactures try to shove "small" cars down our European throats. Yes lots of people live in cities with medieval road architecture, but most of those people don't drive in the first place.

I'd wager around 70% of Europeans live in the surrounds of a big city and countryside so bigger cars would definitely sell. They started selling the Raptor here and it sells pretty good. Not sure who came up with the idea that European car needs = small econobox.

In fact there is a new chinese make that only sell SUVs and they are the #1 most sold here in Spain.
These Pro phones are turning from flagships into flagpoles. I don't know how people who aren't pro basketball players can handle these phones.

Even the "mini" Pixel 'a' phones are huge now.
What’s the alternative?

Due to inflation people with large amounts of capital have little choice but to invest somewhere. Ultra safe bonds are also ultra low yield which limits options.
The funny thing is that a lot of the ppl on social media that I've seen taking this stance against "longtermism" tend to also hold their own long term agendas about utopia. This "conflict" feels really contrived to me.
Consider integrating a tool like Sentry. The free tier is enough and will help you debug platform specific issues like this one, without having to ask your users for info. More importantly it will notify you of the issue before your users have to.
You don't have to replace it with anything. The capitalist solution to climate change is a carbon tax. You price the externality and then the market takes care of minimizing it efficiently.

The problem is actually the governments failing to institute one. The problem isn't capitalism, it's democracy -- too many people work in the oil and coal industries to easily pass a law to delete them.

But degrowth is an even more ridiculous fantasy, because nobody is going to put up with that. It's probably the least palatable proposal to voters of any of the crazy nonsense people come up with. Not least because it isn't necessary -- it's just as good to install 100 GW capacity worth of solar panels or nuclear reactors than to reduce consumption by 100 GW.

Let's do the math here. The US power grid has about 800 GW of generating capacity from natural gas and coal. A 1 GW nuclear reactor, one of the more expensive methods at present, costs about $5.4B. So to replace the entire US fossil fuel generating capacity exclusively with nuclear would cost $4320B, amortized over 50 years this is $86B/year. By contrast, the COVID stimulus in one year was $5T, or more than the amount needed to decarbonize the entire US power grid. And mind you this is the total cost, not the incremental cost over the alternative (continuing to build and fuel carbon-burning power plants).

So the high end of that cost would be 0.3% of US GDP. There is no way you are going to eliminate 60% of US power consumption for less than that amount of money.
Are you indian / have you actually observed this? I'm Indian-American and in my experience this has been entirely non-existent so this article kinda baffles me. I've been asked whether I'm vegetarian before, but always in the context of grabbing food (respecting dietary preferences), and certainly haven't noticed any discrimination after saying that I'm not. I worked in SF for a year and currently in Seattle. Have several Indian friends/colleagues aswell and not once have I ever heard caste brought up
> It doesn't particularly matter whether people are disappearing because of shamble-men or because of bears and wolves, if people are regularly disappearing in the woods then you'd do well to steer clear of them.

“Steer clear of things called Scrum” is a very limited guide to how to develop software, actually figuring out what the methodological pitfalls are and addressing them is something that is, I would submit, worth pursuing in more detail, especially for people who have some influence over substantive development methodology choices, rather than only having a choice of whether or not to avoid some place that is imposing a thing that they call “Scrum”. (And, really, you should probably steer clear of any place where being in the dev team gives you no input on substantive methodological decisions irrespective of whether what is imposed is called “Scrum”.)
There's a good note about the vast disparity between tiers of employers in South Korea (and will likely ring true in other countries too)

>> There is also a large wage gap between the primary labor market of major companies, like Samsung Electronics and Hyundai Motor Company, and the secondary labor market of small to medium-sized enterprises. This labor market polarization is progressing, and there is an even greater disparity in labor conditions than in Japan. [...] Employees of larger companies are much better off, with relatively higher salaries, better working conditions, and labor union protections. Those in SMEs, though, earn low wages, work under harsher conditions, and have no unions to protect their rights in negotiations with management, making these companies far less attractive to job seekers.

I'd pair that with a François Mitterrand-era (i.e. ~1980-95) French position that 'Progress means nothing unless it is shared by all.'

Chaebols are antithetical to democracy, as ultimately people will always act in their own best interests, and centralized individual economic power will rapidly corrupt democratic restraints placed on it.

The only antidote is decentralization of economic power (aka ensuring gains are widely accessible by most of the population).
Perhaps it is indeed a semantic argument then, it's just there's a big difference between assigning truth probabilities of 55% natural to 45% lab-leak vs. 98% natural to 2% lab. While in the latter case, it hasn't technically been "disproved", it pretty much has. And for many previous spillovers (NIPAH, HENDRA, ebola, various hauntavirus outbreaks, etc.) It's very definitive that it was indeed natural spillover. So basically I think it is indeed possible to disprove a lab-leak in many many cases.
There remain several oddities about COVID that haven't led to that sort of truth probability. However, I still think it's possible we could shift those probabilities with COVID, particularly if the CCCP weren't being so shady about the whole thing above and beyond their usual lack of transparency. (Taking the genetic db offline, policy changes regarding lab safety etc.)
gait is fingerprintable
The US military builds dummy towns for training purposes. This is called "MOUT" training, for Military Operations in Urban Terrain. The current ones look like towns in Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, etc. The National Training Center at Fort Irwin, CA has the biggest one.[1]

(There's a very good reason for that sort of thing. Most infantry casualties are among soldiers new to combat. Very realistic training means that most noob mistakes happen at a training facility, not in combat. Armies that don't do this have huge casualty rates at first.)

[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/05/its-a...
Great callout @htrp... @appenz is our expert here btw !
they are going to know much more about the drug you are picking up than your physician who prescribed it.

Unfortunately, what they don't have is access to your patient file, or for that matter the patient beyond their self-report. They can't diagnose you, so they're not really in a great position to recommend alternative medications.

That increases my perception that we need to separate pill-dispensers from medication-experts. The former may still need to do complex work like managing access to narcotics, but the latter should be working directly with doctors and might never actually touch medications.
“Like others in the industry, we are making this change in response to credit-card fees,”
Big SUVs and pickup trucks are less or equally safe to mid-size SUVs and cars. The pickup frame is durable but doesn't provide good occupant protection. Also, big vehicles are more likely to crash being less maneuverable. Plus, a good portion of crashes are single-car and doesn't matter how big truck is if crash into pillar.
Only if it's using non-vision sensors. Plenty of FPV drones fly at night, and it's all down to pilot expertise.
"Me and my brother, we hid up in the rafters when we were kids. We seen the whole thing!"
One of my wife's friends was married to a senior Google engineer, and after a messy divorce needed help to avoid stalking by him. In addition to being a privacy roach motel, Google had shockingly bad controls and auditing to detect and punish abuse, not sure if that's still the case but I wouldn't be surprised.
>and most importantly a path for women (and men - but its mostly women) who drop out of the workforce and want to get back in once the children are older and more independent.

I don't think this is quite right, and your second paragraph is kind of alluding to the underlying issue. I think it's more that there isn't a pathway for women to drop out of the workforce permanently and revert to a single-income household. A lot of women in my wife's peer group want to do this, but can't make the finances work. Of course, they end up having to pay for child care anyway and maybe it comes out in the wash. Regardless, maybe some kind of UBI can be help here for women with children who simply don't want to go back to work.

Aside: you might be commenting specifically on Asian work culture, not sure, but the "give up freedom" thing I don't believe to be unique in that regard.
You and I are probably in similar situations (I rent a 1-bedroom apartment in an upscale-ish area) and you probably earn more than me but I live very comfortably.

I've personally never had any interest in having kids. Whatever it is that makes kids appealing, I've never had it.

But I think I agree with you and I don't understand why I think I agree with you.

Kids do seem like a crazy financial decision today. But if we wanted to, we could for sure have a kid and get by. Plenty of people have plenty of kids on a lot less money.

Is it that we want to maintain our standard of living more than people did in the past? Plenty of poor people have plenty of kids in 1 bedroom apartments. Do we just demand more comfort today? Are we just more picky? Are kids just not worth what they used to be?

I don't think any of these answers are bad. I just think it's interesting.
Aside from SK specific issues in TFA, are their wealthy countries that have successfully countered declining birth rates with something other than immigration?
Until 2013, merchants mostly weren't allowed to charge an added fee for credit cards. It's taken time for businesses to adapt to this change, term processing agreements to come up for renewal, etc.
There we have it. It's a non issue so let's move on folks.