This is quite a surprise. Germany is currently reeling from poor economic conditions including high inflation rates, skyrocketing energy costs, a measure of pessimistic disillusionment vis-a-vis their elected leadership, etc. This is also related to a general sense that businesses are exiting the German market due to burdensome regulations and rising cost of doing business (in large part due to spiraling energy costs). I am no expert, but this announcement stands in stark contrast to said premises--and I can't help but wonder if this move might not be at least in part politically motivated. The facts as they currently stand: Germany considers itself a trading partner with China, but is aware of the rising imbalance in competitiveness (significantly due to phasing out of ICE vehicle manufacturing, where they held a significant lead, and simultaneous phasing in of BEV manufacturing, where China holds significant advantages, both in accrued institutional knowledge and access to requisite raw materials). At the same time, the German leadership coalition has been frustrated by the rising pushback against the Green transformation of the German economy, which they view as non negotiable, but is objectively a non-trivial factor of the economic malaise.

Let's say TSMC does manage to build a fab before 2027 (the year China is expected to complete the modernization of their military and launch their campaign against the island of Formosa's governing body, aka the Taiwanese government). How might such an extravagant outlay of investment funds (which could significantly improve the economic outlook in Germany and take a lot of pressure off the existing government) impact Germany's relationship with China in the crucial near term (the next few years)?

Let's not forget, for decades the CCP worked strategically on bringing about the reverse: isolating the ROC government by engaging in lending practices that sometimes resulted in situations where they could use this leverage to promote a gradual deprivation of the ROC's status as an officially recognized governing body (which has shrunk over the years to a mere 11 or even fewer nations).

Of course it isn't as if Germany's support would significantly affect the CCP's (meaning, Xi Jinping's) plans of Chinese Rejuvenation (wherein bringing Taiwan under heel is a non negotiable component), considering that even the US' increasingly overt support has had no effect on what the CCP has always viewed as an inevitability. Conversely, as the Ukraine debacle has indisputably demonstrated, even indirect support (especially from a Western ally) has a profoundly disruptive effect on the expected development and eventual outcome of any military engagement.

Also, as some may still remember, one of the principal factors that led to China's significant manufacturing modernization was a somewhat similar deal, wherein China "bailed out" a prominent US manufacturer (Boeing?) that was close to bankruptcy, by agreeing to purchase several billion dollars' worth of civilian airplanes, and in return being handed the high precision tooling infrastructure that's indispensable in the manufacture of high tech machinery (because of the military/national security implications, this required political support at the highest levels of government, meaning presidential and bipartisan support). I am suggesting this could be analogous, differing chiefly in the type of benefit that is gained by the other party, as a result. For China, it was high precision tools, while for the 23 million inhabitants of the island of Formosa (who as a group, if not a sovereign nation already dominate the semiconductor industry) it may well be a tactically swift reversal in international standing (something that barely registered at all until very recently, but then rapidly expanded into an all encompassing existential crisis rivaling their defeat at the hands of the Chinese communists, 70 years prior).