skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> It is not at all clear — not even to the scientists and programmers who build them — how or why the generative language and image models work.

Wowie! Someone should look into this!
> your perceived inflection point may never come.

Absolutely. Smarter people than me have predicted it at various points over the last 30 years, and it has yet come to fully pass. We are seeing pieces coming slowly together, though.

> More likely is a bifurcation of the internet between West and BRICS

You are using BRICS very liberally here - I don't think Brazil is particularly internet-hostile, and South Africans have more important issues to think about.

Is there a movement towards a more balcanized network? Absolutely - most European countries now have individual DNS blacklists (the UK one is basically at full discretion of an opaque paralegal entity that answers to no-one); Turkey, Iran, and every other Middle-Eastern or South-Asian country (including Israel, India, Pakistan) can and do shut down their networks whenever they see fit; China have had their Great Firewall since Day 1; and Russia, well, they do what Putin likes to do on any given day.

None of that is particularly new though, it's just the usual autocratic crap. Corpweb will be much more cyberpunk.
It's still a three-and-a-half-ton behemoth (3,563 lbs, specifically)

Love ours too, especially now that we've finally had the battery replaced as part of that recall. The supply of batteries to the dealerships was ridiculously slow. Both they and we got tired of asking for when they'd be able to do the recall for our car.
Weather isn't really an issue. People would just test in the wide, sunny streets of Madrid (or some other overgrown, southern city) if they wanted to avoid those sorts of issues. Europe simply isn't seen as viable for development right now.

The regulatory environment is certainly noted and prepped for though.
Hyperloop did not move the needle on CAHSR’s success or failure, so even by that metric it was a dud.

If you are interested in what successful ratfucking psyops looks like, check out Caltrans’s recent obsession with hydrogen trains.
Holding... But I do so badly want this to be true.
no kidding. same here.
It does look great but indeed, at this point, I would be extremely happy with something that allows me to customize and make GnuCash invoices look nice.
> I think the customer has just changed. Consumers don't have money anymore. Businesses do. Maybe said a different way, for the highest margin products you are targeting businesses.

That's seems like a fact-free assertion. Both (inflation adjusted) disposable income and actual consumption spending for US households have grown at a steady rate since WWII. The only substantial deviation from trend (upwards for income, downward for consumption) were 2 yeas of COVID.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEC96
It's probably helpful to point out neither is in any way close to being a hellscape, and the people in both places have done a wonderful job building up a civilization that suits them.
Looks great, but you can’t scroll the currency select box on iPhone
There is what you believe, and then there is what you prove. Science isn’t interested in the former, and Nate Silver understands that.

It’s got nothing whatsoever to do with politics, and scientists are free to think whatever they like; however, what they say formally is subject to the process of peer review.

We can speculate all day about why these folks committed to the position they did, but the published content is all that matters.
Lottery winners owning fancy houses should not be taken as an endorsement of their wealth acquisition strategy.
Not really, since all stock market analysis is about as woo-ful as astrology. No need to consider any sub-genre for the title.

I really don't understand how, decades after "A Random Walk Down Wall St." was published, there is anyone who can take any sort of "stock market analysis" seriously.
For the same reason German has not swept the world.

Light from one “edge” of the universe has yet to reach the edge directly across from

Same reason we need shifts in gravity to detect planets

Diffusion, attenuation of signal given all the other stuff are physical properties of the universe, they’re properties in us

The universe prefers tribalism; a quasar far off over there, neutron star far off over there.

There are a lot of meat suits who refuse to propagate the signal.

Doesn’t mean it won’t shine bright in some local part of space.
Not denying a phenomenon here, so the "Long Covid" moniker doesn't irk me, but I think you hear more "Long Covid" than "Long Flu" because of the lockdowns, masking, school shutdowns, and ongoing culture wars. I also believe the societal measures taken in reaction to Covid has caused a lot of mental anguish and illness that could be part of the "Long Covid" syndrome or phenomenon. Unless a very acute or severe infection was experienced with possible organ or lung damage, I am guessing a lot is the zeitgeist and general malaise of post-Covid modern society.
South Korea has been desperate for a Nobel prize for a long time. Don't be surprised if they jumped the gun for a false exciting result for national pride.
Adding simple email address obfuscation for your blog (2020)
Reducing technical analysis to SMA crossovers is like questioning the effectiveness of physics by just mentioning strings theory
In 2015 I stumbled upon the empathic reaction of Iranians on 9/11. From the article that had photos and cites from credible international newspapers to back it up, I browsed more on the blog and was fascinated by the photos. This was really an eye opening experience for me, understanding that we should not base our full view on news programs on TV, and I started to read more travel blogs to learn from travellers about foreign countries.
The original article was this one: https://theotheriran.com/2015/09/12/irans-exceptional-reacti...
I can recommend everyone to skim the photos, covering many aspect of Iranians lives that we cannot imagine.
https://www.nlrb.gov/about-nlrb/rights-we-protect/your-right...
As any women (or man watching this) who has tried to nurse a newborn baby can tell you, the nipple is not very intuitive. It is a lot of effort to teach a baby to use a nipple correctly. Few know how to teach this skill anymore and so a lot of mothers spend a lot of money on bottles/formula. (formula is fine for those who can't make nursing work in their life, but where it would work many use formula anyway because it is so hard to learn)
As a joke I built a simple tool that swaps random words for their synonym and it did the trick in throwing off any distribution matching (came out with gibberish but still lol)
https://www.gptminus1.com/
The other paper from them claims to have a video of room-temperature magnetic levitation with one of their samples, but I haven't been able to find the link.
Voices from the outside always said Tesla was doomed when the large automakers started selling electric vehicles. That with their manufacturing know-how they would be selling millions within a couple years.

This is an embarrassingly low number of vehicles on the Ultium platform. It inspires zero confidence that GM will be good at managing their supply chain and manufacturing electric vehicles. GM's forecasts are borderline fraud at this point. They need to come forward with a realistic roadmap ending with significant production of electric vehicles.
AI content generation will fix the expensive I'm sure. Give it 2 years and it's much easier.
3500 pounds is one and a half (ok, one and three quarters) tons, which is inline with a typical gas-powered sedan

I believe the commenter is referencing things like the Hummer EV at 9000 pounds, or 4.5 tons
Brad was one of the first users of a program I was working on, which he used for his work at Sandia National Labs. He would send me frequent, detailed feedback - respectful and kind, inquiring about possible solutions he'd thought of. He even invited me to Sandia to give a talk together about these efforts [1]. I've never had a kinder customer.

[1] https://www.sandia.gov/xr/4th-annual-xr-conference/agenda/
Always helps to have vaccines that actually work to prevent transmission too.
Why is it worst? Isn’t the whole point of an open web to be able to have different agents with different capabilities?
Considering that literally hundreds of thousands of qualified people have been laid off this year alone, many of them devs, and plenty of anecdotes on this and other tech forums/chat groups about how the job market has shifted to favor employers, I think it isn't wildly irrational to believe the person you're responding to.

Sure, "the plural of anecdote isn't data" and all that, but talk to recruiters and you'll hear much the same. Yes, even in this market it's possible to get outstanding offers but I'm fairly confident in asserting that that's much rarer right now than it was, say, a year or two ago.
I'm expecting the Equinox EV to start closer to $40k, even if reports keep saying $30k.
They would do it in Texas at some of the shittiest apartment complexes and I never understood how they could afford to offer such a waste of a service.
If by "they" you mean thermometers, sure. I don't need to do anything more than look at temperature readings to see how the climate is changing.

I also see that it's clearly an exponential graph. We've already reached the 1.5 degree threshold the Paris Agreement was supposed to avoid, we have done fuck all to avoid it. The next 1.5 degrees will come much faster and the next 1.5 after that faster still. At that point we're 4.5 degrees above the baseline and that's widely regarded as apocalyptic.

We will see famine, water scarcity, mass migration, probably wars, possibly nuclear war.

If you want to bring a child into that world go ahead. I wouldn't want to be born into it so I won't.
The big difference then vs. now is that with CAPTCHAs you can (generally) choose to complete them from a wider range of browsers and devices that have no corporate approval (unless it's that one Cloudflare CAPTCHA that gets stuck in an infinite loop). So even if it's painful, you can still access most websites. With attestation you don't have that choice.
You mean a 1.7815-ton behemoth.
The transistor could probably qualify
Having tried to buy one recently I think the discrepancy is that dealers wasted their allotments on high-trim EVs expecting people to be willing to pay 15-20k premiums just to drive an EV. If you want a lower trim model you are going to be waiting weeks to months for it to arrive.
Liam may be anonymous to you but he's not to me, he's also not anonymous on HN (he posts under a very close and obvious variation of his real name here) but apparently doesn't go out of his way to 'build a brand' or 'attract a following'. He really is what he says he is. Maybe tone it down a bit, especially because you are anonymous and apparently believe that is important?
What new norm of slower Chinese growth could mean for the global economy
People try to sell this as a manufacturer decision, but they were really brought kicking and screaming into the current market. They all dumped huge amounts of money into developing updated small car platforms in the mid-2000s only to have them all wither on the vine. And companies that didn't offer SUVs or crossovers in their lineup got hammered.
You're way over thinking it. You either have causality/time component, and can derive some basic axioms that get you existence or not existence (boolean) or you don't. If you have the former, we have turing completeness, and there we go.

If you don't, well, sure, whose to say there isn't a universe where you can't have both presence, absence, and a time component but it's not all that interesting.
I've been following your posts over the past few days, and your philosophy has never been clearer than it is here. You just straight up hate the idea of users having the upper hand over corporations.
The synthesis section honestly looks very simple, I would assume a simple ceramic kiln could be used?

You just need PbO, PbSO4, Cu, and P powders.
That's not even the main risk reduced. Feudalism was invented to reduce risk of dying of starvation. Peasants were always 1 bad harvest away from starvation, they couldn't store wealth for more than a few years (as grain which goes bad). And their labor was either almost worthless (most of the year) or in shortage (during the harvest and a few other occasions).

So they did "cloud farming" :) The people who had access to wider markets and had enough wealth to be able to survive one bad season - provided the infrastructure and shouldered most of the risks. In exchange for the only thing available to peasants - their labor.

As any power hierarchy it quickly turned to shit, but the idea was sound.
Very interesting, I like the combination of multiple fields all in one: Space, robotics, and renewable energy!

however, if it’s taking that time for this demo, we might never see a full-grid on the moon in our lifetime :(
The gold standard is Blade and Sorcery and it's not even close. If you don't like the base game, try one of the thousands of mods. I turned mine into the single most "realistic" Star Wars game I could ever play.
Giant Mistakes and Successes: Lessons from Growing Revenue from $10M to $50M
I ran growth at Codecademy for a few years and wanted to pass along the lessons that I learned along the way.
When I saw it, thought the exact same thing.
Explaining application performance anomalies with AI and the right metrics
Same, I work much better from home. I have a tendency to talk out loud to myself when working on something and I feel like people would think I'm a bit annoying/crazy doing that in an open office environment.
"Most people" eat shit food and watch fixed sport competitions. That is not the point. The point is trying to be better.
Here's more context as to why "long covid" became a term.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7539940/
NA needs more compact EVs. Smart Car sized (but not a Smart Car :D). I hate how many land-yachts I see in my local grocery store parking lot. You don't need an Escalade or a F150 to go to the mall.
If you expected to learn useful finance at a university, you already failed as soon as you applied. If anyone there knew what they were doing financially, they wouldnt be there, and especially not teaching Finance 102. In case you were not aware, nearly all professors hate teaching lower level classes, so they naturally get forced on the worst performing professors (the ones that are closest to getting fired).

Concluding that the entirety of TA can not be useful (the Null hypothesis is true for all input signals) just from seeing that a few strawman TA in finance 102 not work is beyond absurd.
The article was posted to arxiv in April. Believe it or not, >99% of the time I see a paper from my field on HN I've read it months before it's posted, and sometimes been aware of the research for up to a year before it's posted.

Also, the criticism is primarily a comment on methods (stats vs physical models) which can be based on lots of consideration and experience outside the context of any particular paper.

E.g. I can tell you that you've probably used the wrong optimization algorithm for particular task without spending much more than an hour glancing through your problem formulation and results. Doing that without the benefit of decades of experience would require weeks or months, but with experience I can make that determination quite quickly given a detailed write-up.

(FWIW: I think dynamical physics-based models are probably over-emphasized in climate science consensus, but I'm admittedly a complete novice whose opinion you shouldn't trust.)
"Intelligence explosion arguments don’t require Platonism. They just require intelligence to exist in the normal fuzzy way that all concepts exist."
That’s not how either science or NY Times works. First you write the journal article. Then if it’s peer-reviewed, published and seems otherwise legit, your university writes a more layman-friendly press release. If it’s something huge, they’ll probably even arrange a press conference. But they have to be pretty darn certain that it’s legit because retracting something that’s already in the wild is very embarrassing. Then NY Times may make an article of it.

Science is based on replicability, and you just don’t go straight to mass media before at least other groups have had a chance to replicate your findings. Definitely not when it’s something this big. Or if you do, your institution will likely be incredibly pissed. I’d say that the more careful they are, the more slowly and by the book they proceed with this, the more, not less, likely it is that this is a real deal.
Obviously the double camel hump pattern predicting a breakout at the 47 day moving average is bullshit.

But I think its more interesting to find the least bullshit aspects of TA. Its not clear what constitutes technical analysis. Momentum is a real signal that can be seen on a chart. If you trade based off momentum is that TA? Momentum trading can be effective.

I almost feel like the simpler the TA concept, the more beneficial it is. But then it’s arguably less of a TA concept.
AMOC includes the NAC - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Current

Additional information, which may or may not be of interest.
And yet humor and sarcasm can add spice to the conversation. I really did read the entire paper at the level of detail that allowed me to spot the inconsistency in the font. That was not made up, was substantive and should be corrected before it goes to print.

The PS was also very real as the grandparent gets buried under downvotes.
https://archive.is/fy29C
> If appeal to authority is a valid argument

Well, thankfully it is not.

There's no need for one side or the other to "win," especially at this point. Instead, likely, debate will continue until a more-nuanced view is better understood and accurately disseminated.

(Not necessarily a view "in the middle." Sometimes one side is just Right, Full Stop. But a more-nuanced view when there's strong disagreement on both sides is usually helpful for more people to understand _why_ there's disagreement.)
As TFA notes, with only 20% market share, this feature being in Safari is of little to no consequence for the world as a whole.

Hence the rather different reaction when Google proposes something similar (and worse) on top of its 70% market share.
Got captcha'd and bailed. I have no patience for these things anymore and they increasingly don't think I'm human.
I don't know. Consider that a given mass of water would undergo the same gravitational force regardless of whether it is colder/denser/smaller/lower or whether it is hotter/less-dense/larger/higher. Also, as an analogy, consider how much the tidal range [0] varies between areas of the ocean which are absolutely connected as a single body of water. Note particularly the contrast between tides in the Mediterranean and the Atlantic Ocean at large on each side of the Iberian Peninsula, even though they are totally connected through the Straight of Gibraltar.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_range
If Europeans had to pay to defend their own international shipping routes their taxes would be exorbinant.
Transaction costs are not limited to broker fees, you also pay the spread and eventually slippage. That's why I didn't include them in the article, that's too many variables and I'm lazy.
I think it's comparing incomparable technologies. Like the wheel and the alphabet; both changed human history in profound ways, without competing with one another.
Yep: bill.com
Again, I'm not a Worldcoin supporter, but...

'Blind' is a much larger category than 'eyeless', and I think you're making the implicit assumption that the government's current identity verification methods work much better than they really do. Just look at the HN post yesterday about the woman whose identity was stolen and used to import 'counterfeit' goods. Worldcoin's system may not be perfect, but having it as an option might have helped in a case like that.
Yes, but I - and probably you - will die sometime between 2025 and 2095. I wouldn't say that therefore our deaths are imminent.
Nobody I know used interlace other than very occasionally for still images. VGA resolutions were not common at that time, so they were not what my circle compared against anyway.

When I visited one of my dads business associates who ran a software company, for example, the vast majority of PC's in their offices had monochrome text screens. A handful had EGA graphics cards and colour screens. I remember playing Zaxxon on one of them and finding it hysterical that the graphics and sound on their most expensive machines was worse even than on my C64.

The Amiga looked like sci-fi technology in comparison with what most people actually had in their offices or homes until several years in. Ironically if anything the significantly better graphics contributed to it being pigeonholed as a game machine despite the original Amiga looking like an office machine and being way too expensive for games.

The problem was not so much the original or enhanced graphics chips, which were groundbreaking in 85 and maybe even until ~'88 or so, but that AGA in 92 was way too little, several years too late as an upgrade to still justify the price premium on the Amiga. 7 years at that time was an eternity for the graphics capabilities to stand still.

Had AGA started a couple of years earlier, maybe Commodore would have lived long enough to complete their next two upgrade projects (AAA[1] and Hombre[2]), but with the chaos of Commodore at that time it's no surprise they didn't pull that off. I feel like Commodore was still in the 8-bit mindset of thinking they had time to milk their existing designs for much longer than they actually could.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Amiga_Architecture_ch...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amiga_Hombre_chipset
The "tail wags the dog" bit makes me think that the commenter understands both. And shares my distain for macroeconomics.
Asthma induced by influenza would be about right, I think.

Much of this is novel, in having the ability to attribute to a specific viral cause, easily and cheaply and widely. This is new ground, new technology. Much of this was until recently, put up to non-specific viral infection, or even idiopathic.

We may start to re-conceive of asthma as different diseases if we could attribute the factors which went into causing a particular person's asthma. Flu-asthma, toxin-asthma, autoimmune-asthma, and COVID-asthma - and hybrid cases.
> Superconductor Pb10-xCux(PO4)6O showing levitation at room temperature and atmospheric pressure

Is it late April Fools joke?

It can’t be true.

Edit: I am not surprised it levitates. I am astonished by how much it will reshape our world if it is real room-temp and ambient-pressure superconductor. Also is easy to produce. Just too good to be true.
I've never felt that it's appropriate to connect to residential open wifi. If I see one near where I live, I assume it's a misconfiguration.
I think it makes more sense to think of it as a two track process. It's not that digital feudalism emerged out of capitalism, the internet wasn't really capitalist to begin with and was more or less immediately captured by private rentiers. Note that almost every example in the article except for the car is a purely digital good, and I'd argue the automotive sector is not overall feudalistic, just the digital parts in it. It's still largely a market where customers pay for cars and manufacturers hire labour.

I don't think the entire economy is reverting back to feudalism, I think it makes more sense to think of the digital economy as its own thing that's speedrunning the exact process we already went through once. Next step is then what, digital commoners and land reform maybe, proper digital currencies and citizenship, actual privacy protection? Feudalism on the internet can only exist for the same reason it existed offline, people flock to fiefdoms because they perform functions in a modern economy provided by a proper state.