skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Doesn't TA work just because some people believe in it, thus bet money basing on that? ;)

Jokes aside, I'm only betting on stocks that im familiar with (e.g my hobby industry)
wow those dates.. I am using a 2014 desktop, an i7, running Windows 10 just fine. Still game on it too. Insane by Google
I think for this sort of problem it is more productive to think in terms of the amount of text necessary for detection, and how reliable such a detection would be, than a binary can/can't. I think similarly for how "photorealistic" a particular graphics tech is; many techs have already long passed the point where I can tell at 320x200 but they're not necessarily all there yet at 4K.

LLMs clearly pass the single sentence test. If you generate far more text than their window, I'm pretty sure they'd clearly fail as they start getting repetitive or losing track of what they've written. In between, it varies depending on how much text you get to look at. A single paragraph is pretty darned hard. A full essay starts becoming something I'm more confident in my assessment.

It's also worth reminding people that LLMs are more than just "ChatGPT in its standard form". As a human trying to do bot detection sometimes, I've noticed some tells in ChatGPT's "standard voice" which almost everyone is still using, but once people graduate from "Write a blog post about $TOPIC related to $LANGUAGE" to "Write a blog post about $TOPIC related to $LANGUAGE in the style of Ernest Hemmingway" in their prompts it's going to become very difficult to tell by style alone.
Do you really mean that threatening to claw back severance from critics of the company is a significant part of what makes the U.S. job market work?
Correct, and that's what I meant. The person to whom I was responding understood me.
Lol all of y’all are interpreting my comments in terrible faith but because you support the narrative it’ll be accepted.

Never mind friends. I just wanted to make people think a little, but that’s always a mistake here.

For the record: I’m quite skeptical that the lab leak theory is true.
Nope, the fact is a private individual has a very low probably of building wealth on the stock market due to numerous factors. Much like a casino the assumptions the naive make are leveraged against the ambitious and irrational.

Traditionally, the homes and farms people earned would ultimately have better returns for individuals, but the primary mechanism was controlling for inflation and excluding debt bleeders on equity. These systems were slowly converted into commodities through investment hedge-funds, and are now the primary driver in speculative-markets (2008 crash mechanism was never mitigated). See Japan real estate if you would like to predict the logical conclusion of the naive commodity theory.

When one has the epiphany debt has real consequences despite the political rhetoric, Your investment risk profile will improve, and seeing currency in a global trade context becomes clear.

Rule #13: "Never reach out to a drowning man", as in their desperation they can push you under as well.

Good luck =)
I would also maybe not characterize all of the groups as the best in the world.

The profitable ones are in the urban areas of Honshu. JR Kyushu is staying afloat, and Hokkaido and Shikoku are losing money hand over fist.
Can you elaborate further on the points of what happened, the countries themselves, and the final quote?
Run a background check, sign confidentiality and DP agreements and hire someone who sells you trust. Again, something you would do in any given modality of work.
This is well written and I agree that family is a very imperfect analogy for a working relationship. At the same time, some work situations are more or less family-like and it still pays to look for the "more."

I've been lucky that 4 companies I've worked at in my life so far have been very "employee forward" - creating scenarios of employee growth and engagement (vs putting employees in the seat of powerless cogs). All 4 companies have had a layoff of some sort for various reasons (business line shutdown, covid business hit, interest rate hit, grew too fast - respectively) and I have been affected by one of the layoffs (the other one, I left right before employees were bought out) but I am still happy to have worked there vs anywhere else because of these factors.

"Family" doesn't mean employing you past the point it makes sense, it's more about how you're related to when you're here. Are you encouraged to grow, to make connections, are you paid well, does the company try to give you good benefits, etc. You want a place that does all of that. You don't have to call it "family" - but it's a totally different vibe from a sweatshop.
What I understood is that it's pretty easy to fire someone in the US without cause. Pretty impossible in most countries in Europe.
If Coke Zero steals market share from Classic Coke, it is a net win overall. Suffice it to say, Coke Zero is coke's biggest hit in a long time, commercially speaking.
What does labour regulation have to to do with socialism?
>> (2) 100% free medical (few SW engineers apply, but most who are laid off would be eligible, if they cared)

Could you explain this one? Do you mean via medicaid?
Isn't it something that can be answered scientifically by statistical tests?
Computers were invented long before they became invented.

So that wouldn't be in the last 100 years.

However unlike computers, if this idea works, it will get productized quickly.
Agreed. Also I'm not here to defend their particular model. Just saying that "physical" does not always equal "better predictions".

Their model equation (1) has 4 parameters. Do you have any papers at hand that model AMOC in a more physically constrained way, with a similar number of tunable parameters?
Typically not, but they absolutely feed into the higher-ups perception of you. I worked at a company an hour away from my home. So anytime we had our monthly post-work happy hour, I'd politely decline and go home. Especially as I know they'll be out until 10pm.

During one of my reviews it was mentioned that it's disappointing I don't attend the happy hours as that's when the team is able to connect and strengthen our bonds with each other.

Wasn't surprised I was let go just a few weeks later after I declined the next happy hour.
They do. A z/OS with a single CPU and 4GB of RAM costs around $2000/month. It's a bit of a hassle, as you need to connect to its VPN and will need to add a public network gateway for your machine to see the world, but that's it. It could, of course, be just a tiny slice of z/OS running under a larger LPAR, but IIRC, LPARs can get really small. You can go as far as 16 vCPUs and 128GB of RAM for roughly $30K/month.

Last time I tried I had issues with the VPN and couldn't connect to it. I'll try again later. Another good thing about IBM cloud is that they embrace Terraform and you can download templates for just about everything they offer.
Please go ahead and make it at home. Like many others, I want this to be true badly but my BS detectors are blaring
> I think people are dismissive due to the expectation that if it really was that bad they would be hearing much more about it.

Most people are also still likely to not talk about it and hide it from everyone else.

Makes me worried about when we're going to see a strong 'backlash' against long COVID where people start getting very publicly getting busted for faking it.

If 90% of people hide the condition and try to tough it out and don't talk about it then it increases the public rate of fakers by 10x.
Which is logical and kind of what I expected. But raises the obvious question of where does your data come from going forward? The internet is getting more and more polluted with machine generated data, previous big ongoing data sources like Twitter, Reddit, etc. are all full of GPT spam and are trying to monetise their data.

I’d also be interested in how much you think your platform is just capturing say reported surveys/data. President polling is something that must be all over LLM datasets- isn’t that just replicating the training data?

I think you could do a better job of showing on your website the following - here are some unusual survey results we generated from the model - I.e. stuff definitely not in the training data - and here’s the data we actually got when we did that survey for real
Studies explore use of nuclear propulsion in shipping
Can you give me an example?

A computer without TPM, a "management engine", an Ethernet card with real Firmware in a real ROM, no platform controller, nothing.

...and a completely open BIOS w/o any binary blobs, and UEFI layer.

Almost a 486DX, almost.
Addicts usually have underlying childhood and/or adult traumas to numb their pain so it isn’t surprising.

But surprisingly, if used in the right context, intentions and dose, psychedelics can help with the underlying traumas and addictions. Especially Ayahuasca, MDMA and psilocybin.
You can't tell the difference between a practical safety advisory and doomsaying about a future rapture?
A truly beautiful collection of short films. Stink bomb is kind of a dud but the other two really pull far beyond their weight.
> Whether or not it is planned obsolescence is not a technical question but one of intention.

intention is basically impossible to prove. The impact/effect of planned obsolescence isn't.

> On the other hand, you'd have to ask why consumers are not creating this pressure themselves. Has the market converged to a steady state where consumers no longer have a choice?

It often seems that way. Sometimes it will be more profitable to refuse to provide consumers with what they want.
“On the frequency and severity of interstate war” by Aaron Clauset.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.05086.pdf

Analyzes a claim made in the 1950s by a prominent statistician: the frequency of interstate wars follows a simple Poisson arrival process and their severity follows a simple power-law distribution.

He was right, but it’s not clear why.

The paper is interesting because it shows how a new bit of knowledge creates a large number of known unknowns from previously unknown unknowns.

It also shows statistical magic was very much possible prior to computers.
> Being easier to fire makes American employees easier to hire, which is at least in part responsible for much higher pay in the USA compared to employee havens such as Europe.

Only if you're a highly sought after tech person and thus have actual leverage. Farm workers, hospitality employees, construction workers - they're all exploited just the same.
> (I suspect the difference is two-fold: our major river network doesn't connect our hinterlands to our population centers in an efficient way, and our country is big enough to have a continental divide within a single economic zone.)

My guess is it's scale. Chicago is the third largest city in the US, and yet it's 600 miles from any ocean-going port (the Great Lakes doesn't really count, since it's not practical to navigate for any interoceanic shipping). There's smaller cities in the interior of the US that are even further from the oceans. By contrast, in Europe, it's hard to get more than 400mi or so away from a major port.
There are no socialist countries in Europe. Every country in Europe is capitalist.
To me this is the great utility of the IPCC reports. If you look at the full report you can find subsections on many aspects of climate change and a discussion of the state of the field complete with citations compiled by an expert.
Spotify adds record number of new active users
Probably worse than the sunbathing conditions changing: some crops that can currently be grown in, say, Scotland, wouldn't grow there any longer.
critical thinking skills, don't believe everything that you see, perform your own independent investigation of truth.
How do I get myself out there to make these connections? I can make connections with coworkers, but I don’t know how to expand beyond my circle (like meeting VC folk)
If you hire someone for 100k per year and it turns out they only contribute 50k per year, then you lose a minimum of 25k over those six months.

As a business you're more risk-averse in offering high salaries since it costs more when you make a mistake.
It's the textures that really let it down, i think. The solar panel (?) texture in the very first shot is a perfect example. Looked fine at SDTV resolution, but in high-res, you can see it's just flat blocks of colour, and it loses all realism.

Most of the geometry is pretty good. A bit too regular and pristine, could use some tiny variation and some light greebling.
I'm being hyperbolic, using the American bastardisation of the word 'socialism'.

I'd put myself on the Europe-side of employment law/regulation ideals.
Communication satellites only changed the world because they broadcast to mass produced receivers.
Yes, sadly HN does seem to have a high proportion of folks who don't seem to understand the value of human connection. Everything is about technology.

But not all mission statements are meaningless, and not all attempts by executives to create a family-like culture come from a bad place.

Much of it comes from a good place, and it often works. But people who experience this I think are less likely to write on HN.
The April 2022 update at the end of the article has a good short summary:

> If you're looking to reduce the whole discourse to "X vs Y", let it be "serde vs crossing your fingers and hoping user input is well-formed". It is one of the better reductions of the problem: it really is "specifying behavior that should be allowed (and rejecting everything else)" vs "manually checking that everything is fine in a thousand tiny steps", which inevitably results in missed combinations because the human brain is not designed to hold graphs that big.

My pet theory is that this corresponds to the "two cultures" of software engineering: do you value up-front work and abstraction to reduce cognitive load and debugging, or would you rather (try to) pay more attention and spend more time debugging to reduce how much you have to learn and think up-front? Go seems pretty firmly in the latter camp. That's exactly why I am not interested in the language either, despite the various things it gets right.
You have to really abuse alcohol for it to mess with your psyche. Nicotine is damaging physically but does nothing significant to the mind. Contrast that with one terrible trip that could very well happen on your first time trying psychedelics.
The distinction making it RL is that the model is training on data produced by the model itself.

The benefit of RL in general is that you're training on states the agent is likely to find itself in, and the cost is needing an agent which explores salient states. Which is why we keep seeing RL as a finishing step after imitation (eg AlphaStar first learning StarCraft from replays)
Is this the prior post you’re referencing?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36479776
This is very succinct. I was raised to value "a hard day's work," and while I still do, I realize as an adult that I should know who or what I'm working for.
> In a sense, the claimants are becoming shareholders of this company. That is, like shareholders, they have a claim to a certain portion of future cash flows. Like shareholders, they should be hoping that the business continues to thrive so that their claims can be paid out.

This is an extremely perverse incentive and shows how fundamentally broken some of these mechanics are.

"You injured me, and need to compensate me. But in order to do so I have to hope you continue to prosper, potentially injuring others along the way, so I get my compensation. I can choose between getting you shut down, but potentially not being compensated, or being compensated but knowing that you go on to be able to do this to others."
It's mentions a potential collapse as early as 2025. More precisely 2025-2095. That is this century and it's accurate to say 2025 is imminent.
"The American economy is awash with opportunities to work for small businesses, with employees free to move around and chart their own destiny. "

If they all are all happy and free to chart their own destiny - why are those contract things then pretty much standard in the US (as it seems to me)?

And maybe things are not perfect on either side of the atlantic?

I would be fine with less regulations and hire and fire here in europe btw - but I would be not OK, having to sign such contracts. But I don't see, why we can't have both. Meaning employee respecting contracts - but not mandated from above.
In your experience, "family office" means "hyper social," and autists struggle with "family office."

This seems too vague and broad for meaningful discussion.

I'm not picking a side, but for the sake of comparison, I've seen office environments with "we are family" messaging treat individuals with autism or disabilities more inclusively and with more grace than otherwise.
I've heard a lot of really good things about the Bolt EUV (the SUV-ish version). I assume they're fairly similar. I don't think it was so much then price as it was generally seen as a good EV in general.
> Other people speaking does not censor you.

It depends what they say. If they say 'advocate for yourself and we'll lynch you', it does effectively censor you.
I'm an android user, so I have no experience with carplay, but personally I'd actually prefer a good standalone internet stereo and navigation system for my car over android auto. I don't really want my car to connect to my phone or stream the display over some weird proprietary protocol.

If automakers just can't get their act together to make a proper internet stereo/navigation system, they should develop an open standard allowing third parties to provide it instead. Not halfheartedly farm it out to the tech giants.
Like you would any other thing that is outside your circle of influence: kick it out of your circle of concern because you aren't realistically speaking geared up to move yourself into a position where you do have influence. If you don't you end up with the global equivalent of a burn-out and it might start to affect your ability to make decisions about things that you do have influence over because it is paralyzing to be confronted with such overwhelming looking possible catastrophe in your life time.

Treat it like the weather prediction for next month, if it happens it happens and then you can react. If it starts to show up in the weather prediction for tomorrow it is time to factor it into your present day decisions.
But this is exactly the problem. If Chrome had only 25% market share they wouldn't feel that they could force users to use Chrome. But if Chrome and Safari make up 80% of the browser market they feel like they can.

The solution is diversity and using browsers that respect users. Chrome only has the power to push this API because they own most of the market.
Hyperlink maximalism (2022)
Replying to an old reply, but reminded of this by the more current thread regarding StackOverflow.

Lots of comments in there about how SO doesn't show up as more (or at all) in Google results, and instead we get geek4geek or whatever other clickfarm sites there are out there for technical questions. It's a great example of exactly the problem I was talking about. Is it still comical to you?

Sure, yeah, anecdata and all that, but until I'm hired to dig through all of the internals of Google, anecdotes are about all we've got. Other than Google's reassurances that Everything Is Going Just Splendidly.
Her entire statement doesn't make any sense. GM spends four years developing a vehicle iteration. Is she saying they are going to sell the old Bolt iteration, which was already old when canceled? I'm guessing they are just re-badging something else already in development.
I just asked the demo video what year and said

>The text does not explicitly mention the year in which this speech was given.

Does that mean in the whole video or in the summary only?
> So far this year customers had bought 2,300 Lyriqs and 49 Hummers, GM said.

Selling only 49 of a vehicle in a 6-month period seems... shockingly low. Can't even imagine what kind of bottlenecks they're running into with building them.
Oz super is always going to be in AUD even if the subject is living in the UK. Does your system support investments in multiple currencies? ;-)

More typical UK expense figures is a really hard one. I think we've got a crazy wide spread of incomes and expenditures the same as the US but with differences such as almost nobody earning average income will spend any of it on health care.
I don't think the problems were particularly insurmountable; with the advantage they had, they could have redesigned everything twice over and still be competitive (which tbf they did, to an extent: the CD32 stuff they pushed towards the end was pretty cool).

It's just that Commodore leadership was fundamentally extractive, and saw personal computers more as consumer widgets than platforms. The financial side of things was a bit shambolic, and they trusted the wrong money.
That's not what I'm talking about. I mean companies that brand themselves as “was are a family” not where it comes from a genuine connection between the employees.
Kids these days don’t have email and SMS or app messaging is pay to play.

Facebook and Discord sort of just work.

Also consider that unless you’re a professional SEO spammer, google doesn’t really discover websites anymore, and buries the results that it does yield under various other things.
haha, whelp. I sometimes can tell what posts are going to be outside the Overton window, but my nature compels me to say them anyways because I believe they're true.
If anything, shouldn't the fallout reinforce trust that it won't happen again? Kind of like how plane crashes actually make planes safer.
Indeed. Why spend $10 doing something useless when you can spend $10000?
Cars can kill people in numerous ways and as a consequence are more regulated pretty much everywhere except the useless things; other items are only where it counts. A washing machine might be a piece of crap wrt its function, but for sure must pass all sorts of certifications for electrical safety. That wouldn't prevent it from being crap, though.
Theory but open to both
We have a Bolt; it's a great car. Not everybody wants their EV to be a four-ton behemoth...
How about YouTube music? Pocket casts? Speed trap warnings on the map?
Could someone explain why is this world changing?
VPN works for almost any internet service and not just web browsing

VPN can be bought outside of a 5 eyes company

Tor is much better at making it easier to hide your browser footprint and thus anonymity browsing across sites as long as you reconnect often and don't change default settings.
I can explain the theory.

In scenario H (for hard to fire), we expect employers to spend more time evaluating new hires, because if they make a suboptimal choice, they will be stuck with that employee until they can justify to the authority that the employee is not suitable. This makes them averse to hiring quickly, and also averse to paying a premium unless they are extremely certain of the results. We then expect potential employees to spend more time vetting potential employers, because any involuntary job search process is going to be long and expensive.

In scenario E (for easy to fire), we expect employers to spend less time evaluating new hires, and to be more agreeable to paying a premium, because the loss of hiring suboptimally can be swiftly ended. Since employers hire faster, we expect employees to spend less time vetting employers, since getting a new different job should take less time.

In practice, I suspect that current economic situations are much more of a driver than the regulatory regime.
3) They would stop updating your infotainment system after a few years and you'd either be stuck running old versions of everything or buying a new car. I want my car to last longer than the average Android phone.

Edit: Tesla might be the exception here, but do you imagine GM is going to be shipping OS updates for a 10 year old car? I think not.