This is like 2005 understanding of PRC economics and comprehensive power.

2023 PRC isn't capturing $8 per iphone 3g in assembly anymore. She captured $100 / 25% BOM since iPhoneX. Current trend of PRC+1 reshoring (derisking) is moving low end industries / labour to cheaper labour regions while PRC moves up intermediate goods and value chains. Hence why PRC exports to Mexico increase proportional to Mexico exports to the US. Mexico is finishing PRC intermediate goods to evade tariff. What we have seen is PRC becoming more and more indispensable and integrated throughout the global value chain.

Actual low end semi production is expanding massively in PRC. Medium end (12nm+) expansion is going to be mostly in PRC, because it's capturing market share in worlds biggest semi market that western fabs will increasingly lose due to export controls. What you're seeing is west strategic expansion of fabs that will lead to bloc overcapacity. Most of those fabs will only be viable via state subsidy. This isn't even going into capital goods / machinery that RoW are increasingly dependent on the PRC to try to re/industrialize at all. It's not what PRC makes but how much of everything that she makes that positions PRC to be indispensable trade partner for at least decades.

Repeating the demographic collapse narrative from Zeihan tier analysis is disingenuous. It's a manageable challenge / transition because PRC demographers aren't retarded, this is one area where they actually had a long term plan and are mostly meeting expectations. There's a reason PRC society has ~90% (87 urban / 96 rural) home ownership and some of the highest household savings rate. Old cohorts who saw QoL expand hundreds of times, simply do not have expectation of massive state welfare program, or increasingly being taken care of by kids. The entire dependency ratio / confucius obligation is orientalist projection that overlooks the fact that in aging countries like JP, old people just kind of rot and die unceremoniously. That’s where cultural expectations are currently trending, elderly don’t want to be filial drag on the next gen and are going to die quietly in their house with their nest egg. And what happens when they die? Up to 8 household wealth transfers to a couple who have increased consumption and family planning options. Will some families get fucked, of course, but you know which cohort will see large intergeneration wealth transfer dividend, the educated/skilled ones whose pushing PRC up the value chain.

Meanwhile PRC family planning prevented like 200m-300m excess births, when west is meming about PRC youth unemployment, which at 20% still means 80% of a very large number of skilled workers are being integrated into PRC economy. Much more than US integrates via immigration. It’s very difficult to make 6-8m new jobs for youth, especially high skilled every year. Nevermind double that. See PRC still has 600M farmers + low skilled workers stuck in the informal economy. They’re productivity drags. Reality is avoided adding another 200m-300m mouths that system wasn't scaled to deal with. Current TFR lower than planners want, but right now PRC is where roughly demographers were aiming and planning for.

PRC is also food self-sufficient in caloric terms. Agri imports mostly bulk animal feed and luxury items that don't undermine absolute food security. Not that it matters since she's shifting away from western agri to BR/RU/global south. And really this entire obsession with PRC food imports is dog whistle for PRC food insecurity, in which case, the US has exactly as much food and energy security as PRC because any disruption of PRC energy SLOC is going to be met with disruption of CONUS energy infra. Fortress America is over. PRC can starve US as much as she can starve PRC.

The entire idea that the PRC is unknowable is stupid. Incredible amounts of info on PRC is available via one of the largest western diaspora in the world. The problem is people choose to double down on the dumbest PRC collapse narratives from analysts with piss poor track records or outdated info that’s no longer relevant because US gov literally spending 100s of millions to seed disinfor about PRC while useful idiots wonder why PRC is not collapsing due to XYZ stupid reasons.