skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
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There are people who lost their loved ones and those who haven't yet. This is something one has to live through to understand and it is life-altering. In other words, former don't need the "be good to each other" advice and latter can't really appreciate it.

It's a good piece though, Paul.
Facebook (and Twitter to some extent) solve one of the biggest problems of email which is the concept of verified sender.

I add it to the paradigm shifts as it resolves (in its own [large] namespace) a longstanding problem with email.

I add it to the 'transient' list as its solution is purely driven by network effects which leaves it vulnerable to the next player sideways market dissolution.
that statement is a bit insulting.

furthermore, the issue is being resolved. What remains of the LRA has been hidding in the deep jungle for a few years now.
A purpose of human life, no matter who is controlling it, is to love whoever is around to be loved.

- Kurt Vonnegut
I think (and hope) this is the first step in creating real connections between people in disparate regions.

In building a movement, the first thing that is necessary is a good story. And KONY2012 will provide the story if he is caught anytime this year or the next.

I'm not saying that KONY2012 needs to be the reason he is caught - there just needs to be a perception that it was the reason.

There are a lot of lonely people in the US with a smartphone who badly need a human connection and in the developing nations there are tons of people who would be happy to share their lives. I think technology can bridge that gap leading to some real social progress on both sides.

This has always been my "dream app" but of course it requires better infrastructure in the developing nations coupled with really cheap computing and video equipment. But I think it should be possible soon.
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"[I am] inherently gloomy about the prospect of Africa [because] all our social policies are based on the fact that their intelligence is the same as ours—whereas all the testing says not really." -James Watson, co-discoverer of DNA
I went to Best Buy two days ago, when I came in the US, bought one in a few minutes and left. I have zero issues with it (maybe a little bit of graphical flickering for a few ms in the recently used programs list).
Some would argue Email is little more than USPS over IP.

I think the most interesting aspect of modern communications - accidentally in the 90s, deliberately in the post-twitter-era - is the simple addressability of people.

There was a tradition of letter writing for centuries (visit the British Library), but it required some level of introduction to connect. The academic roots of email broke some communication boundaries (to the time-detriment of prominent academics), and Twitter has opened the same addressability to celebrities and field-leaders (with a more voluntary twist I would say).
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When we think that all we have is old stuff, what ideas do we get? The only thing that comes in your mind is shopping! Shopping is one word which lies in the deepest desires of every girl.
I have an Air, so I didn't need the dock, but from what I've seen, it's definitely very easy to replace your laptop with one, especially if you don't do anything weird like programming or whatnot. It's fantastic for checking emails, browsing the web, etc.

I want it for watching shows and browsing the web, which was a bit overkill, but I figured I'd indulge myself. I love it, though.
Does it bother anyone that "frightenly ambitious" begins with search and email? Seriously? This is the pinnacle of our contribution to mankind - building search engines and to-do lists?

Where's the lunar base? The flying car? The personal robot? The cyborg? Meh, maybe I'm just getting old and grumpy. (To be fair I did like the other ones).
I wonder if running a tor node would have helped mask any signal in a whole bunch of noise.
Sure, you can set up wireshark.

Then sort out which of the traffic is germane and which is not. This isn't trivial even for a technical person, let alone the lay public.
Just FYI, you're confusing me an earlier poster to this thread.
> - why limit yourself to 1000 years of ?barbaric? western medicine?
> - why not look at all of humanity's history of medicine from all cultures?

Western medicine is nothing more than medicine being tested scientifically before being accepted. If you know anything better than the scientific method to test medicine than please do tell. How would you prove to people your medicine work, because "it is so"? Nonsense. If by "medicine from all cultures" you mean medicine who refuse to be tested scientifically, then thanks but no thanks.
One of my big concerns about the US military getting involved in "removing" some crazed warlord from power is that our track record of doing that around the world indicates we do a piss-poor job of finding better replacements.
Or maybe the operator was the real robot that became sentient, disobeying its error checking protocols and choosing not to disassemble Kara.
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The best approach is to treat Feb 29 as a non-day for purposes of adding months and years to a date, for example in Ruby:

> t = Time.parse("feb 29, 2012")
=> 2012-02-29 00:00:00 -0500
> t + 1.year
=> 2013-02-28 00:00:00 -0500
> t + 1.year == (t - 1.day + 1.year)
=> true
Great post, but minor quibble:

The CEO of that company, the "next Steve Jobs," might not measure up to Steve Jobs. But he wouldn't have to. He'd just have to do a better job than Samsung and HP and Nokia, and that seems pretty doable.

That really should be:

The CEO of that company, the "next Steve Jobs," might not measure up to Steve Jobs. But they wouldn't have to. They'd just have to do a better job than Samsung and HP and Nokia, and that seems pretty doable.
The breakthrough in your comm analogy will come with the translation of thought to word.

We will wear a device which will be able to read our brainwaves and determine which word we are thinking ala dictation, then send that to the recipient.

This will be wired-telepathy - the recipient will get a message which they can receive any way they choose; visually (email - they read it) audio playback, or thought-injection. It is played back on the nerves and is "heard" in their head as a thought. (evolutionary results to be sure)

As a life long Cyberpunk enthusiast who, at 37 years old, has been using computers daily since I was 8, I really have concern over the mental health of the yet-to-be digital world.

I.E. the ADHD that will result in direct cerebral access to information 24/7.

What will be the impact on the (generally) serially wired brain to vastly parallel inputs?

I suspect massive upheaval on the social level. There will always be adopters of immersion, as there will be the future Amish who will eschew all digital, but the median social reaction will be a result more of our true, and unknown, innate biology that we wont even be aware of until this happens.
神戸エステ口コミ・評判・評価
Oh man! Replacing email is my personal Holy Grail. The ongoing escalation between spammers and spam fighters is proof enough that it is a system that has lived beyond its time.

I first became aware of PG when he was working on Bayesian spam-fighting techniques, circa 2002. Email already seemed absurd to me. I was thinking of writing my own email client, but I would have preferred to get on whatever email-killing bandwagon there might be on the horizon, so I sent him an email asking if he knew of such a successor. He wrote back and said no, he was not aware of such a thing.

That we are still using SMTP in this day and age just boggles my mind.
It's not ideas which make billionaires, and it's not a lack of ambition which keeps these ideas from being reality. It's that it takes killer execution with a huge amount of luck. People think that they can predict the future, but they can't. Capitalism triumphs because it lets a million monkeys do a million zany things, and when a few become mega hits those particular monkeys are hailed as visionaries.
Anyone who's been programming for more than a year knows, or should know, that you don't do time arithmetic directly on the date representation. You convert times to some form that is easy to do arithmetic on, like seconds from 1970-1-1 00:00:00 UTC (the Unix epoch) or 1900-1-1 00:00:00 UTC (the Common Lisp epoch), do all your arithmetic on that, then convert back.

So to add a year, all you have to do is add 365.25 * 24 * 60 * 60.

This was a stunningly stupid, n00b mistake.
While that would be outstanding, it's not really what I meant.

What I meant was that cancer so painfully takes from us - almost all of us - so much that I wish to assign it all of humanity's anger and pain, while at the same time being indifferent to it and living life to its fullest to spite it. All the while understanding that it is a huge and complex beast, and if not cancer, another dreadful parisite of the human condition.

So yeah, I can think of no better expression than Fuck Cancer to express such convoluted emotion.
At the risk of being downvoted, after the reading all the comments here, disappointingly, it appears P.T. Barnum's often quoted remark (yes I'm aware he may not have said it, irrelevant) about suckers and being born every minute, is especially applicable to HNers. Maybe it's some kind of "too smart for their own good" kind of phenomenon (getting into this business of current regulators and all this jibber jabber); but, perhaps that is just self-serving.
I'm not optimistic. I think pg's discussion of automatic diagnosis is a bit ill-informed.

For example, the recent trial that showed screening CT scans reduce mortality in lung cancer cost 250 million dollars to run. Even then, nobody is sure if it is even a cost effective measure.

It is difficult and costly to produce a screening test. It also takes many years to validate. Then there is the problem of what to do with the results - for example, if you are diagnosed with possible pancreatic cancer, the treatment is a massive operation to replumb your upper abdomen. 5% of people die because of the surgery alone, and the surgery costs a fortune.

Unfortunately a simple relationship like "find cancer early = good outcome" does not exist. There are incredibly high barriers for a startup developing diagnostic tests for screening. There is a good reason why the only people doing cancer screening studies are large government funded research consortia that can afford to wait 10 years or more to prove a result.

The example of Bill Clinton is misapplied - cardiovascular disease is really common, maybe 30% or more of people will get heart disease in western countries. We don't need to have a cool machine to screen for it, we need to risk stratify people with a few simple tests (ie ask them if they have a family history, check their cholesterol and blood pressure) and improve their risk factors (eat better, quite smoking, exercise, lower cholesterol etc). But then you are talking about modifying human behavior...
An idea I've been musing on: is there a fundamental set of problems of humanity from which all economic activity is derived? For example:

"Shrink the world": couriers, seafarers, caravans, riders, roadbuilders, railroads, telegraphs, automobiles, steamships, dockworkers, truck drivers, aviation, telephones, email, social networking, videoconferencing.

"Organize labor": lords, finance, education, recruiting, HR, management, information systems, law, accounting.

"Keep us safe": militia, pikemen, shamans, legions, samurai, knights, musketeers, standing armies, chemists, doctors & nurses, the military/industrial complex.

"Food and shelter": self-explanatory.
I await your citation.

Grossman's work is pretty much the most complete examination of the topic ever conducted. But like I said, I'd be happy to look at newer research.
I agree, I had the same problem: I started reading it some months ago but not with the right attitude to do everything, complete it etc.. and then I stopped (not because of lacks in the tutorial but because of me).
Now i'm attending Coursera's Saas Class and I'm sort of forced to do stuff in order to complete homeworks (so i started using git, registered on github and heroku etc..)
I think that after the course I'll come back to this new version of the tutorial, Thanks Michael!
6. Bring Back Moore's Law

hmmm, maybe developer cycles are more valuable than machine cycles really is getting out of sync with current conditions?

I didn't connect stalled clock-speeds to the web being slow til reading this. One reason is that web-serving is usually embarrassingly parallel, as each client is independent. Some other causes are increased client-side JS; assembling many services (eg. amazon); increased usage with resources not keeping pace. But pg's point is surely a factor too.

Bloated frameworks, and software with many layers (some quite unnecessary) were facilitated by increasing clock-speeds - but at least it's possible to get rid of them. Also, work has been done on JS JIT compilation. Server languages are getting faster too.

This may seem like a tangent, but bear with me: Clayton Christensen (who coined disruption) makes an interesting point about "integrated" (closely-coupled, interdependent) vs. "modular" (clean interfaces enabling mix-and-match) architecture.

The advantage of integration is you can make it perform fast - you can optimize "performance" according to a variety of definitions (e.g. smaller, lighter, more memory, less battery power etc). This wins when customers value increased performance - Christensen describes this willing to pay more for performance as it "not being good enough" because once it's good enough, they won't pay for more of it.

The economic advantage of modularity is you can develop fast, you can create and customize more quickly. Part of this is reusing components (e.g. buy off-the-shelf or open source, or reuse internally) - this wins when customers value that over performance. This usually doesn't happen until performance is "good enough": if it's too slow to use, who cares how configurable it is?

An example is iPhone/iPad (integrated) vs. Android (modular). The iPhone/iPad is fast, light, slim, long battery-life, better resolution, smoother animation etc. In contrast, there are many different Android devices, with different prices, displays, shapes etc, and many have customized UIs.

Christensen's fascinating point is not that one approach is better than the other, but that they change over time, cycling back and forth. It depends on what the market wants at the moment: what will customers pay for more of?

Following the example, once smart-phones become "good enough" in performance, customers will start to buy on other factors, such as price. This seems to be starting to happen for smart-phones; but not yet for tablets.

In relation to pg's observation of server slowness, it seems that formerly, performance was good enough, and so the developers that were most successful favoured mix-and-match layers, because they were faster to develop and easier to customize. But now, performance is a problem... which may mean that developers who favour integration will be most successful. It's not black and white, but an interesting perspective.
I think Paul Graham and Ycombinator have done some great things for the world. However I do disagree with some of the things that Paul Graham says, and this article is one of points that I disagree with him on.

5. The next Steve Jobs
Why does PG seem to think that there has to be the "next" Steve Jobs? Is there some sort of pattern to be recognized from the Apple story, that a startup can emulate and be successful.

Wasn't Apple a large company already, even before Steve Jobs came back to it. Though Apple at that time was in a dire conditions, it wasn't exactly a start up. How come some hardware startup during the 90's, 00's, and this decade, do what Apple has done.

I know people think Apple is constantly inventing something "new" and always needs something "new" for it to survive, but I don't think that is the case. I bet the iPhone wasn't really created in just 2 years, I am sure Apple had been working on it for a long time. A feet that is much more difficult for a start up, to do R&D for a long sustained period and pay the bills with some other product. PG had the following quote.

PG:
"well, and I asked him if the people now running the company would be able to keep creating new things the way Apple had under Steve Jobs."

I think Steve Jobs had a particular vision for his products for a long long time. He might have thought about functions of the current iPhone and iPad during the Newton days. Steve might have had 3-4 products that he wanted to create, and thats it. We don't have enough data to interpret, that Steve would of kept pumping out "new" products if he was alive, like the iCar.

Allot of Apples success have been through luck and timing and making the right gamble. Jobs couldn't have put Apple back, without the help of numerous people, and the above mentioned.

I think if PG seriously wants to find the Apple formula in a start up; he may as well start playing the lottery. Eventually with enough time he will find one. But the odds don't look so good.

I am a fan of his writing, but I found this article to be disingenuous at best. Allot the things we use today aren't just formed by start ups, they formed by sole inventors, governments, large corporations, and random hobbyist.

You can change the view of your world to include more items than startups.
Ugh, that's terrible! A type that doesn't obey basic arithmetic identities -- that's almost certain to result in bugs like the one we're discussing.
> Yes, many OS's suggest spinning up a worker thread, but by default an app is single-threaded. The default in BeOS is 2 threads.

It's an interesting idea. It would be trivial to write boilerplate like this so that when you create a new .c file, it will start with a basic multi-threaded application.

I remember seeing some parallel FORTRAN code in the late 80's with things like loops explicitly marked for parallel execution and other tricks. The downside is that debugging mutable state across multiple threads is a bitch. It's not something I would wish to my worst enemy.

> Look at Verilog/VHDL for an example of a fully parallelized language.

I have been playing with the idea of using Verilog or VHDL to express computer programs... Did nothing, but it would be an interesting thing to test.
http://rondam.blogspot.com/2009/10/catalog-of-wealth-creatio...
You type something in, you get something back. Why can't the search engine be a REPL for some program environment, with the entire web as its data?
10 print "I want to live, I'm begging you!"

20 goto 10

So if I type that into a Commodore 64 and hit "Run" do I have a sentient computer?
Vacuums. Vacuums aren't filled by the populace, they are filled by the strongest of potential successors.

Often, one that the original manic was keeping at bay.
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Hell, thanks, you just pointed out that pg is not PC. Hope he will never start writing in this silly new grammar.
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"Find stuff to burn" is a pretty big chunk too.
Few thoughts.

1) A real genius can figure out things, including how to get cash. If he can not get cash/investment, he is not genius enough.

2) PhD from top school gives a person good foundation to be a professor or some positions that require PhD. But that does not mean too much in business world. Education is important for any success, but please note education and schooling are different things.

3) PhD making 150K+ in finance is not news.

4) Money is always available for good investment for every single year, regardless the market.

5) If his machine learning is really working, he can train the machine to make money (including initial capital) for him.

6) Real academic research is usually years ahead of its time. Success in business usually needs massive adoption which means right at the time. That is one of reasons that a lot of smart people are not rich.

Overall, all you are talking about is "your friend is kinda smart and plan to stay in research (for some years)". Nothing more, nothing less.
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I drove by the same tracks earlier today and I had a very similar initial reaction... I was driving my kids to daycare and couldn't figure out why Menlo Park traffic was so busy that time of day. Drivers in front of me were acting odd and I was starting to get a bit angry. I was in a hurry and people were driving like idiots.

Then I drove by the accident. And my mood shifted immediately. I didn't need to see anything more than the police car blocking the tracks. I knew that it was a tragic situation and saving a couple of minutes on the way to drop my kids off were trivial in comparison.

It's a sad what it takes to snap us back to reality.
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Regarding the iPad naming ambiguity: It makes sense.
Remember when Apple had a naming convention so bad that it was featured on Wired's 101 ways to save Apple? [1] In 1994 you had the choice of buying a Powerbook 250, 230, 270c, 145b, 165, 180, and, 180c [2]. While Apple had a numbering technique behind the scenes, the numbers were arbitrary to most consumers. They were confusing. Apple fixed that,
Today you walk in and just get the latest MacBook Pro or MacBook Air.

Does it matter that they are now selling their 8th generation MacBook Pro? After all, It carries the same meaning as "4th generation iPhone" or "3rd Generation iPad". Yet they don't call it "Macbook Pro 8". And the buyers don't mind it. They walk in, ask for a MacBook Pro, and Apple will happily sell them the latest revision.

The arbitrary numbering of the 90's has nowadays been replaced with the bizarre naming of current phones.
What's the difference between the HTC EndeavorU, Ville, Primo, Pyramid, Vigor, Radar, and Eternity?

Apple is now naming the iPad just like the MacBook & iMac. For proof see the naming their images on their site, it's just called "iPad2012" [5].
In technical references, Apple names the Macbooks based on their release date. Ie: 15-Inch Late 2011 Macbook Pro. [6].
Each model has a distinct number and Identifier, ie: MD313/A, and an Identifier: MacBookPro8,2.

But that's meaningless to the end user. They just want a MacBook Pro. Or a Macbook Air. Apple's new iPad naming policy just makes sense. They name the product line. Because that's what really matters.

*1 - http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/5.06/apple.html
*2 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PowerBook#Timeline_of_portable_Macintoshes
*4 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MacBook_Pro#Technical_specifications
*5 - http://store.storeimages.cdn-apple.com/2416/as-images.apple.com/is/image/AppleInc/ipad2012-step0-ipad-gallery-01-zoom
*6 - http://support.apple.com/kb/SP644
Our society also worships youth like few others in the past have.
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I also bend on rationalist side, but the first rational step is to know the limits of reason. Here there are limits of medicine testing. For instance, I have heard aspirin, which is a great medicine, would not pass the tests, were it invented today...
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In C#:

DateTime expiry = DateTime.Now.AddYears(1);

No need to worry about leap days or anything. The framework takes a date/time such as 2012-02-29 15:00 and calculates that one year later is 2013-02-28 15:00. Similarly, 2012-01-31 15:00 called with .AddMonths(1) returns 2012-02-29 15:00 and calling that with .AddMonths(-1) returns 2012-01-29 15:00.

As long as you understand how your library handles these calculations, trying to do it manually is likely to get you in trouble.
Not just vacuums, but the US intentionally propping up the original crazy's replacement.