skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
As someone who works in EEG, you may be surprised that I somewhat agree with you.

Let's start with where I am in agreement.

EEG or fMRI data only tells us about electrical activity in the brain, specifically the firing of neurons in different patterns and areas of the brain. We are yet to make the absolute connection of how that electrical activity translates into thought.

What I do find interesting is that in the age when we were learning about the movement of fluid and pumps, everything was taken from the understanding of how blood moved through the body and how we "worked" as a result of this fluid moving through our pipes.

As we learned more about electrical activity, we suddenly thought "oh! The pumps are moving necessary biological matter, but it's really the electrical impulses that are the important part. Even when we look at how the heart or any other muscle works, it's all about the electrical now.

So what is the next phase? As we understand more about quantum mechanics, will that be the next state of science that we attach to our understanding of how we work? Will it be something else?

However, the way I see this differently from you is that knowing how the pumps work, or knowing how the electrical systems work does are still valuable to us.

This isn't like the old days where we got sick from "humours".

So don't through the baby out with the bathwater. Understanding the electrical function of the brain is likely important in reaching our next level of understanding.

Now a somewhat unrelated, but tied to your thinking. I think this is what most people miss when they are talking about Nuralink and other implantable BCI. When people talk about "connecting our brains to the internet", we have to realize that we don't really have the ability to directly put information in. We can try to map electrical activity to requests, but I don't believe we have that in a high resolution method.

This doesn't mean BCI isn't valuable. If you have Parkinson's or other medical issue that can be treated with stimulation, it is absolutely valuable. But getting a monkey to play a game is still a long way from getting information in. Plus, a joystick is still easier, cheaper, and probably more fun than just staring at a screen without moving your body....assuming you have a body to move.
> You haven't contradicted anything.

Yes, I have. I have even explained thr contradiction.

> You just said you like 538.

Not in this subthread.

> Their "lots of election events" are not different samples of a single variable -- they're different variables with different methodologies.

No, its lots of events with the same methodology (within an election cycle, within any class of election events.)

Now, in principal the Presidential general election prediction is a unique (per cycle) event, but the rules for assigning electoral votes based on lower-level electoral results are known in advance, and the national Presidential election is (equivalent to) a mechanical composite of the state level predictions via a model accounting for their degree of interdependence; both the state level prediction and the degree of independence of their variation are testable, and the model does not purport to predict variations due to faithless electors or interventions to assign electors other than by the state election rules in place prior to the state elections.

EDIT: Actually, there’s lots of predictions to evaluate even for the overall Presidential prediction, because there is a new predictiom every time they update based on new polling data, and you can evaluate the accuracy of the model using all of those predictions, not just the final one.
The big value of polls is a backup check for discrepancies. A major difference between final polls and polls leading up to the election could be innocent (like unexpected demographics), but it could hint at voter suppression or even completely innocent issues with the voting systems. Paired with exit polling, there's enough information to find answers.
Yes, I’ve seen the stats.

Let me ask:

Do you think all 30% of college-educated Hispanics who voted for Trump were wholly misguided? Do you believe none of them had legitimate reasons for supporting him?

How about the 8% of black college grads, or the 26% of doctors?

None of these people were competent enough to make an informed decision?
no, you can only "calibrate" his prediction abilities in general:

"given 100 predictions by Nate Silver, how many will be correct?"

that's what you just said.

In other words, if we forgot what actually happened, picked one past prediction out of a hat, asked "so was he right?" and then checked the results, he would be correct 95% of the time. That's what you're saying.
is async planned for 0.11 at the end of current_month?
So Apple is abusing their control over devices by making devices that work well together?
Chrome has used an undocumented Windows API before: https://www.hanselman.com/blog/the-weekly-source-code-33-mic...
After someone noticed this the comment was mysteriously deleted from the Chrome source code.
There are typically two issues:

* Occasionally, random junk will get tossed in alongside valid JSON. If you're a human, it's easy to identify and fix. Programmatically, it can be much harder to fix.

* Context lengths can create issues.
Softlayer was (is?) a good US-based bare-metal hosting provider before IBM acquired it. A company I worked at in the mobile gaming space in 2012 used them for their US backends. Not sure if they're good value these days.
0xf.ai
I take it Disney owns Fivey Fox? That's kind of a bummer.
This is true of western europe, but eastern europe is worse than the US in terms of drinking problems.
> EV indicators would be really useful in a corporate setting to mitigate phishing attempts against employees

I believe that kind of "negative awareness", the awareness that need you to keep checking if something has disappeared constantly doesn't work well in practice. You naturally develop blindness to that element, and therefore to its absence too.
Can Cybersocialist Planning Become a Reality?
Well they are from Canada, and may not be to your taste, but I imagine you haven't seen them perform live - they're actually really good. ;-)

Regarding autotune, it's worth noting that one of the most famous users of autotune as a musical effect, T-Pain (who isn't Canadian) is actually an excellent singer (and for something unexpected, check out his cover of Black Sabbath's War Pigs.)

Of course The Weeknd is in fact a successful songwriter, but I don't entirely understand the criticism of singers for not writing their own music. Certainly we accept that it's OK in jazz, in musicals, in movies, and at the opera - why not popular music?
Some good ideas in here, but like so much Marxist writing it's written for other Marxists, and in an increasingly outdated pseudo-academic style.

Class relations are just not as simple as Marxists make them out to be, and the insistence of shoehorning everything into a Marxist theoretical framework (and writing style) loses probably 90% of the audience within the first few paragraphs. People are busy, at least make the effort to state your claim up front and sketch out what makes it different and worth someone's valuable time.

Most working class people do not have an appetite for pseudo-academic polemic; conversely, most Marxist-influenced writing comes off as fan fiction which is utterly uninteresting to people who are not already fans of original works. Also, only drawing from within that pool is a negative signal to most readers, as is uncritical reproduction of things like Juche monuments in North Korea (a nominally communist country that in practice is a highly repressive monarchy).

Like I said, a bunch of interesting ideas that get lost under antique dogma and some questionable assumptions.
By far the biggest barrier is group chats with others who are on iphone. Not only is the experience pretty broken for you, it essentially ends up breaking the experience for everyone else. This AirTags example just highlights that to a large portion of the US populace, Android is essentially a joke.
> We built the atomic bomb by building a bunch of facilities out in the middle of nowhere and letting scientists just kind of make it up as they went along.

Physics in the years leading up to WWII had reached levels of accuracy and predictive power never before seen, so I think this example supports my argument if anything. Also the team there did not "just kind of make it up;" sure, they followed a relatively unconstrained creative process, but the foundations they were building upon were astoundingly firm.

> I hope you genuinely understand the difference between measuring bumps on ones head and well established scientific instruments that allow you to take measurements inside the body. MRIs are not some sort of witchcraft that should be distrusted.

I understand the difference, I was using skull bumps to prove my point by way of contradiction. I also understand the usefulness of MRIs. I'm just saying that they are useful within a certain domain, and cognitive science falls outside of that domain to a large extent (certainly to a much larger extent than sensationalistic pop-sci publications would have you believe).
That's because the Town of Los Altos Hills has effectively banned all businesses within its city limits: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Altos_Hills,_California#St...
I don't know what you mean by "very very recently", because even online porn has been around for literally decades (it was on Usenet for a while before the web was a thing). I remember folders full of it on the BBSes I frequented as a teen in mid-90s.
Seems that the old one "Divide them to conquer separately" always works.
Pivoting to Covid research during lockdown – an interview with Prof. Rudo Römer
Common problem with % statistics I find is they dissuade people from considering the actual occurrences of something.

70% chance of success is about a 1 out of 3 chance of failure.
How to improve your credit score ... get credit cards and pay most of them off, but never close them.

Once you have established credit you will then be offer 0 APR credit cards for 12 to 48 months. With a zero APR credit card that has a balance say of 10,000 your monthly minimum payment is 1% of that so $100. $20,000 $200 a month ... once the APR promo ends transfer it to another card with zero APR.

Closing credits has hurt my credit so i keep them open and locked, as well establish email alerts on all of them for different scenarios to monitor them.
So I’m sure you came to that conclusion after using Workflow on iOS (built into the system) and using a modern version of iOS that does have Home Screen widgets?
Dropbox gave more or less the same excuse a week ago...
This is a lot like saying, "fractional exponents are meaningless, because you can't multiply something by itself half of a time." This intuitive model has broken down, but the problem is that the model wasn't sufficient to capture the complexity of the problem; it was a pedagogic stepping stone.

Similarly, probability is not the result of conducting repeated experiments (though the results of repeated experiments can be used to estimate probability). It's the measure of an event relative to the measure of the set of all events, eg, it's how much of the total volume in the space is taken up by a given event.
FiveThirtyEight is beneficial, and it’s fairly simple as to why.

1. People want to know who is winning. It doesn’t matter whether you like it or not. People want to know, and thus there will always be a market for it.

2. Polling is imperfect and it’s a lot of work to understand how to interpret the various polls out or to forecast in lieu of polls.
Political journalism before FiveThirtyEight was filled with even more crooks and charlatans coming up with nonsensical ways to forecast elections or interpret polls. There was a lot more noise in the system. FiveThirtyEight shut that stuff down to an incredible degree.

3. FiveThirtyEight has introduced more folks to probability theory than I think any other journalistic collective. What has always made them different is that they provide probabilities, not certainties.
Talking about WebGPU
Here's a pro tip. Get the chipolo version of the airtag, it doesn't have the ultrawide band part so you can't easily locate it on whatever you're trying to track. Remove the speaker as well, guides on youtube. The thief will still get alerted due to anti stalking crap, but they can't easily find the airtag and remove it.
I wondered if it's for accessibility reasons. Possibly a better experience for screen readers and such.
> FiveThirtyEight's political forecasts absolutely provide a desirable service! Who doesn't want to know who will win an upcoming election?

Does it actually work though? I don’t think they were able to predict the past 3 presidential elections, so not sure where they provide value.
We have a word for this: horse race journalism.

It's generally not understood to have positive connotations. In part because there is indeed some evidence to suggest that your concerns about it harming the democratic process are valid. For example: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/708682
> Why would I welcome this?

The second half of the sentence you quoted?
Tabbed has a manpage you can check out online: https://manpages.org/tabbed
Nate, I'll work with you...
Explicitly brutal material does have one educative characteristic.

It educates one on the depths of human depravity. It is good to ensure the little ones eventually become aware of the shit we have to deal with. Hiding it helps no one.
You are trolling. It's not that subtle either.
> Much of FiveThirtyEight’s vital intellectual property — such as the election forecast models — is merely licensed to Disney. The license term for these models expires with my contract this summer. I still own these models, and can license or sell them elsewhere.

Sounds like he had some good leverage going into this deal. Why would Disney have agreed to a temporary license, as opposed to a purchase of this critical IP? Regardless, good for him.
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I am immediately available for full/part time contracts
For weeding pavers I don't care about dead soil. It's soil that is cracks between pavers and I sort of wish it wasn't.

I think the steamer is at least partially a flash boiler, so energy use isn't high. It isn't huge amounts of water it needs to boil.
> It’s dishonest to equate lawful warrants with Google’s targeted advertising and exploitation of our information.

Is it?

Google has not suffocated the AOSP. If you don't want their advertising or services, you can remove it. No such option exists on iOS, so you're effectively locked into an inherently insecure product. You can claim that you trust the parties with the backdoor key, but that doesn't change the fact that the key exists.

In mainland China, that puts Apple in the awkward situation of complying with lawful warrants that are complicit in human rights violations. Trusting wholesome, benevolent government collaboration is not enough. Apple has to design a transparent and accountable security system if they want their privacy stance to look like something other than a theater scripted on whitepapers.

> This is another disingenuous false equivalency.

Apple is an advertiser, though. You cannot pretend like they don't also have a conflict of interest here. Not to mention, they're equally capricious on the service upsell - the in-OS advertising was one of the reasons I left their ecosystem in the first place.
How many people remember the days of "DOS isn't done until Lotus won't run"?
I would start with a game: For any number, I can name a bigger number.

For any collection with a certain number of things (such as n potatoes), I can always name a collection with more things, such as n+1 potatoes.

"Infinity" is a word that we use for games like that.
What is this aircraft doing?
It’s clever if you’re running your own models, or only paying for tokens generated.

Since you’re generating the variable fields anyway, it will actually require fewer forward passes even if broken up in multiple prompts than if you generated the static fields as well.

Of course this doesn’t work for OpenAI apis which charge for input context on a per invocation basis.
The models are one thing. It's the data that really matter imo. No other organization has created as thorough of a collection of polling firms, their polls, as well as their faults and past records as FTE.

Even if you're building your own model you'll likely be turning to FTE for the latest data.

In addition they're data driven journalism is often paired with amazing data sets that they open-source for free.
Your #1 is affirming the consequent.
The econmics don't work out for someone making a browser specifically for you and no one else. Products typically are designed to support the needs of many people instead of optimizing for a single person at the detriment of everyone else.
I guess I'm misunderstanding how Apple prevents you from sharing in their experiences. Did Apple create a walled garden around experiences, which I wouldn't put past them? This is an honest question. I heard something in a stand-up bit, from which I gathered sms from non-Apple users are flagged a certain way in Apple users' conversations. Is there something else?
insane indeed. btn.social is 1 cent for 100 logins. no MAU shenanigans. won't bankrupt/drain most startups
Very cool!

>“Today ChatGPT read 1289 top news and gave 13 of them a significance score over 6/10.”

Is an excellent hook.

I wish there was more of a basis on the score it chose. For example:

>“Russia suffers 100,000 casualties in Ukraine conflict, US estimates.”
is #2 and ranked 6.8

>“White House estimates Russia has suffered 100,000 casualties in Ukraine since December.” is #237 and ranked 3.8.
Because we can point to a record of recent history where the elites collide with the politicians to create this situation.

IBM refused to divest from give vacuum tube based computer business so government funded silicon and transistors based computers then gifted the technology to IBM.

There’s story after story of the public having its wealth expropriated.
I don't see how that makes any sense at all. Nothing happened in this case that the Swedish police couldn't do themselves without any international requests.
Is “up” an even or odd number of meters?
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FiveThirtyEight has had astonishing accuracy since 2008. They don’t pick winners, they provide data analytics of polls and other factors. People may not appreciate probability theory but this is far more reality based than what passed for political analysis prior to 2008.
Silicon manufacturing, aerospace, automotive, robotics, the list goes on. It’s a well-entrenched ecosystem that makes a decent chunk of cash and has a lot of staying power. Simulink seems like a major factor in this staying power.
> Why exactly should banks be private companies at all?

It's a government trust. The only use of banks is to realistically evaluate loans, but priced-in bailouts take away all of the risk, and with it all of the signal. People get loans because they're insiders who have relationships with bankers, or because they're objectively overpaying for them.

If banks will always be bailed out, the proper amount of interest that should be paid on a loan is 0%.
You jest, but strong arguments have been made on both sides of that counter-factual. Popular narratives of the American Revolution leave much unsaid. Contemporary accounts of inciting events such as the Boston Massacre were often gross distortions or plain lies.

The Townshend Acts were meant to tax the colonies to recoup the cost of their own defense, after the French and Indian War kicked off arguably due to Washington's poor French and inexperienced military leadership:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Jumonville_Glen#Afte...
? Why would anyone trust anyone's opinion? 8-)

There is a precident of sci-fi authors inventing religions that are very popular among the idiot wealthy.

Ever heard of L. Ron?

Chips in brains:
https://spectrum.ieee.org/what-is-neural-implant-neuromodula...

AI controlling the world:
https://www.recruiter.com/recruiting/pros-and-cons-of-using-...

I'm amazed our idiot primate species is still into the whole invisible guy in outer space thing at all. People are obviously eager to sign up for whatever stupid shit is popular in their communities.

I'm no hirari fanboy, but I'm even less a human fanboy. Our species has demonstrated every kind of idiocy...
Am I wrong in thinking that all banks should have no exposure to the stock market period?

The whole being able to trigger aggregate indebtedness violations through synthetic shares (options), seems like a systemic risk that no ones paying attention to.

Also, its hard to say we still have a fractional reserve system when required deposits have been set at 0% since the pandemic. There's no fraction, its 0 unless you change the definition (i.e. Basel III which uses capitalization as deposits).
How is the status quo working out for people in Haiti or Palestine or Sub-Saharan Africa? Lovely results, I expect?
Part of it is explained as (paraphrasing) "builders won't build low cost homes because the profit isn't there" so all the builders are 20 miles away over in Bloomington Indiana building $500K houses for the same labor and materials cost and making a lot more money.
> FiveThirtyEight's political forecasts absolutely provide a desirable service—who doesn't want to know who will an upcoming election?

> But is it good for people to know who is more likely to win an election? Are these predictions beneficial to society or democracy?

Two points:

1. The model DO NOT tell you who will win the upcoming election.

2. It is absolutely beneficial to society and democracy, having a poll-free & rigorous-analysis-free democratic society means an environment where even the most apolitical citizen can be bamboozled into thinking that an election was "stolen" simply based on their close associates and news sources. Polling and aggregation, when executed with a modicum of accountability, prevents a devolution into a Soviet-style culture of paranoia particularly among the elites. It has tremendous value, that value will be backfilled by rumour and innuendo and that is very bad for society.
Even one where we just unplug the machines we have?

There are only 1 million sworn LEO in the US, and they work for a paycheck, not loyalty to Jamie Dimon and company. You think those cops are going to bat for former oligarchs versus a population with 3 guns per adult at ready?
Not an expert but I thought it needed the 'power set' (set of all subsets) but maybe that's kinda the same as exponentiation in the end?