skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
They have price signals at the edge - between the company and the customer or suppliers - but not within. Within walmart, there's no market of logistics options for a store to chose from. There's no market of training providers to decide how new employees are onboarded. There's no market of website admins running walmart.com. The company is run by non-market decision makers.
What? Zero MacBooks have GPS inside.
Quoting this here for the added context:

> Much of FiveThirtyEight’s vital intellectual property — such as the election forecast models — is merely licensed to Disney. The license term for these models expires with my contract this summer. I still own these models, and can license or sell them elsewhere.

This is one hell of an agreement to have with your employer. That was my next question given that most of FiveThirtyEight was Nate's own work, and he had very good insight to have an escape hatch.

I really hope to have the power to do this one day.
I feel obliged to point out that the term 'abandoned' might be misinterpreted here.

I use pinboard every day, have done so for a decade and it works exactly as intended.

The fact that there have been no recent new features troubles me not one jot, my keyboard hasn't had any recent new features either, it just works.

Judging by the last time pinboard was mentioned on HN, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34062802, the 'archive' feature, which is a 'pay extra' feature, causes dissatisfaction amongst some people, I can't comment on that as I don't use it.

Pinboard is run by a single person so if you're a user it would be sensible to use the 'export' function from time to time to allow for the owner getting sick etc.
Or do exactly what Nate Silver did – negotiate the contract in such a way that you still have control over your IP if they decide to terminate you or sunset your product. Of course chances are that you don't have the kind of leverage that he did, but still...worth a shot.
Love that idea. I'm starting to roll out pages dedicated to each shot (when you click on it) that go into detail about it. The crew, the story, and eventually BTS and 'how to's' on how to make it.

https://eycndy.com/fixed-object-schoolboy-dope-dealer
Simply looking at 538 during election cycles makes it hard to argue they aren’t a horse race tracker (they literally started as a sanitized gambling odds site and Nate’s new book is about gambling).

They’re just the guy who went to the stables before to see who was eating the most hay.
They can also use commercially-available hardware like the Greykey to bruteforce iPhone and Android logins without Apple or Google's permission whatsoever.

Isn't modern technology fun?
> I'd love to stop believing in it but it's destroyed a large part of my life.

With all due respect, wouldn't it be more accurate to say that you destroyed a large part of your life? It seems like you're blaming porn, as if everyone who is exposed to it becomes addicted. Is it like heroin? Or is it more like alcohol, where many people consume it without becoming addicted, but a few people ruin their lives over it?
I see this repeated all the time and I don't understand how people come to this conclusion.

538 consistently gave Trump a better chance than much of the mainstream media, with him showing a roughly 30% chance for much of the year, including right up at the election. At times it dropped as low as 15% or so, but... that's still not some insanely rare occurrence.

As for what they were actually saying? Silver and 538 never claimed it was a sure thing. Let's look at some actual articles:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-dont-ig...

"At the same time, it shouldn’t be hard to see how Clinton could lose. She’s up by about 3 percentage points nationally, and 3-point polling errors happen fairly often, including in the last two federal elections. Obama beat his polls by about 3 points in 2012, whereas Republicans beat their polls by 3 to 4 points in the 2014 midterms. If such an error were to favor Clinton, she could win in a borderline landslide. If the error favored Trump, however, she’d be in a dicey position, because the error is highly correlated across states.

There’s also reason to think a polling error is more likely than usual this year, because of the high number of undecided voters. In national polls, Clinton averages about 45 percent of the vote and Trump 42 percent; by comparison, Obama led Mitt Romney roughly 49-48 in national polls at the end of the 2012 campaign. That contributes significantly to uncertainty, since neither candidate has enough votes yet to have the election in the bag.

To be honest, I’m kind of confused as to why people think it’s heretical for our model to give Trump a 1-in-3 chance — which does make him a fairly significant underdog, after all. There are a lot of ways to build models, and there are lots of factors that a model based on public polling, like ours, doesn’t consider.3 But the public polls — specifically including the highest-quality public polls — show a tight race in which turnout and late-deciding voters will determine the difference between a clear Clinton win, a narrow Clinton win and Trump finding his way to 270 electoral votes."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-probably-finish... is about as bullish on Clinton as I can find from the archives, and even there Silver does not talk about how Hillary is a sure thing, and instead spend several paragraphs discussing reasons why Trump could still win and what those would look like. And as those things occurred, the model shifted back from being as bullish on Hillary, for the reasons Silver outlines.

I don't know why you would read a 70% chance of victory as being the same thing as a sure victory. I wouldn't want to bet my life on a 70% success rate!
Wow this should be higher up. Also, have you tried emailing someone in Adams' office?
Well, in some cases, negligence is sufficient for a lie or deception. E.g. forgetting to properly cite results is plagiarism, whether you intended to lie or not.
Maybe it makes sense to hold the owner of the hardware that produces these <hallucinations/lies/failures/deceptions/confabulations> accountable for it. In many places with freedom of speech, this will be difficult probably.
Reddit is a company that has products targeted toward both children and adults. If they want to do that, they should act like any other business and ensure that children aren't allowed access to products that are only for adults, or at least enable parents to make that decision. Grocery stores are free to sell cigarettes and alcohol along with candy, but they're required to not sell the former products to children. We don't just say "don't let your child go to the store alone".

> It's absurd and entitled to believe that I should have to jump through hoops because you want your child to have access to a website that it sounds like is inappropriate for them.

Where did I suggest you should have to jump through hoops? I said companies like reddit should design things such that filters work. If you don't need filtering, you'd be unaffected. Similar to how that little "TV-MA" pops up at the beginning of a TV show; every TV in the US market can be configured to block content above a desired rating level, and broadcasters are required to include the rating in their signal. I don't see how this would be so onerous to require a similar standard for businesses providing content online, particularly when that's information they already categorize out of politeness to their customers anyway.

> It's not reasonable to expect a company to filter content based on your personal understanding of porn.

I didn't suggest they should filter anything; I suggested they should label content and that the industry should be regulated to use standard way to do this that parental control software can understand. There's already precedent for how to solve this problem in TVs. It can be done in a way that completely preserves privacy and only requires action from people who want to configure their client to have filtering. Note that I also suggested they should label content categories. The person configuring the client can decide which categories are appropriate.

Similarly, if they move their nsfw images that they've already categorized from i.redd.it to e.g. p.redd.it, DNS filtering could easily block them all while still allowing roblox memes, and users who don't care wouldn't have to do anything.

> I'm not opposed to parental controls, but if parental controls don't exist, don't pass laws to force them to.

The problem is that parental controls increasingly cannot reasonably exist. With something like TLS with Encrypted Client Hello and DNS-over-HTTPS, and with most sites being hosted on large CDNs, the choice becomes "block all of cloudflare etc." or "block nothing". It's not that much to ask that if a company wants to provide both adult-only and child-oriented content, they should at least provide usable metadata for which is which to make sure filters can work.
You seem to be arguing about net social value, which is a distinct and much more complicated issue than journalistic value.

(That said, yes, I think the models clearly have net social value, too.)
I read that whole comment and didn't understand what you were saying..

Can you say it plainly?
That 7 years figure is absolute nonsense. Even in more "normal" interest rate periods (pre-2008) the advice was 2-3 years (mainly because of property taxes).

For example a three bed house might be £1200 to rent, but even at a 4% mortgage a £250k house costs roughly the same in mortgage payments and only roughly £400 will be interest payment each month.

In 7 years that's £67,200 in equity the home owner has accrued while the renter has nothing. Even taking off fees of a few thousand shows your sums are very, very, very wrong.

Worse still, if you're talking about the LAST 7 years you've made an even bigger mistake. Because interest rates were so low you'd have been paying much less in interest and had you been overpaying your mortgage as if you'd been paying the rent for the same property you could probably have accrued £80k in equity. Plus all the house value increases, probably add on another £50k.

So if you listened to this person 7 years ago it would have cost you £130,000. Not just a little bit wrong in their advice, but staggeringly, stupendously, wrong.

And I say this as someone who made this mistake 20 years ago and cost myself probably £150k+.

Always overpay your mortgage when the interest rate is low!
538 absolutely is horserace coverage, but unlike basically all the other election coverage, it's rigorous, impartial, and intellectually honest.
Bush should have lost the electoral vote in 2000. The Supreme Court handed him the presidency.

> The Florida recount and subsequent litigation resulted in major post-election controversy, and with speculative analysis suggesting that limited county-based recounts would likely have confirmed a Bush victory, whereas a statewide recount would likely have given the state to Gore.[6][7]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidentia...
but NYT has, at times, been straight propaganda (like other obvious news sites for other propaganda), which i guess is your point.
It's funny, every now and then (at least in gaming circles) there is always some fanboy yelling "but MS isn't the old evil company as they were, look, they did X or Y". But it's just same bullshit under new manager.

MS. MS never changes.
Honest question: why dont modern cars come with similar functionality as AirTags or 'Find my phone'?
I responded to a comment mentioning death and calling to get the vaccine as possible protection. Why would be my comment odd then? You don't have to go far back in history to see why this is dangerous do you?
It's a legitimate question. Why is the mayor of NYC shilling a product? NYC is one of the worlds largest city governments so It's not out of the realm of possibility that this is a native ad for I-Phones.
With their blatantly sexist and racist policies, and their Free Speech bait & switch I vehemently disagree:
From reddit a employee:

"Our rule1 protects groups that are attacked based on a vulnerability, which doesn't pertain to white people or men as a group." Screenshot: https://i.imgur.com/NgOxEg0.png

What is rule 1?

"Remember the human. Reddit is a place for creating community and belonging, not for attacking marginalized or vulnerable groups of people. Everyone has a right to use Reddit free of harassment, bullying, and threats of violence. Communities and users that incite violence or that promote hate based on identity or vulnerability will be banned." (https://www.redditinc.com/policies/content-policy)

So in practice, according to one of their employees it's actually:

"Remember the non-white male human. Reddit is a place for creating community and belonging, not for attacking non-white people or women. Everyone except white people and men have a right to use Reddit free of harassment, bullying, and threats of violence. Communities and users that incite violence or that promote hate against non-white people or women will be banned."

And this is absolutely born out in their repeated banning of male-centric subs, while the most toxic community I've ever seen remains, because it's wildly sexist against the correct gender. And there are multiple "fragile white redditor" type subs also, but all other "fragile <race> redditor" subs were instantly banned.

And the bait & switch:

"We want to democratize the traditional model by giving editorial control to the people who use the site, not those who run it."

— Reddit FAQ 2005

"We've always benefited from a policy of not censoring content"

— u/kn0thing 2008

"A bastion of free speech on the World Wide Web? I bet they would like it," he replies. [reddit]'s the digital form of political pamplets."

— u/kn0thing 2012

"We will tirelessly defend the right to freely share information on reddit in any way we can, even if it is offensive or discusses something that may be illegal."

— u/reddit 2012

"We stand for free speech. This means we are not going to ban distasteful subreddits. We will not ban legal content even if we find it odious or if we personally condemn it. Not because that's the law in the United States - because as many people have pointed out, privately-owned forums are under no obligation to uphold it - but because we believe in that ideal independently, and that's what we want to promote on our platform. We are clarifying that now because in the past it wasn't clear, and (to be honest) in the past we were not completely independent and there were other pressures acting on reddit. Now it's just reddit, and we serve the community, we serve the ideals of free speech, and we hope to ultimately be a universal platform for human discourse (cat pictures are a form of discourse)."

— u/yishan 2012

"Neither Alexis [u/kn0thing] nor I created Reddit to be a bastion of free speech"

>— u/spez 2015
If anything, I suspect this detailed polling of making elections closer. Millions of voters aren’t reading 538. It’s a distinctly wonky thing to do. But people really into politics, the kind of people who volunteer for campaigns and make large contributions do pay attention and I think it helps rally their support behind realistic candidates for their party so that the candidates put forward for the general elections are as closely matched as possible. Well funded campaigns probably already had their own private polling and statisticians, but 538 helped make sure all highly invested individuals had access to decent data and could deploy their resources more effectively. If you keep that data out of grassroots hands, then you put the parities more firmly under the control of a very small party elite with all the experts.
I've seen them on every tech site I visited. Were you under a rock ?
It has been fairly useful to me as an observer and voter in understanding how the elections go down. Understanding what the chances are of each candidate and how certain voting groups can influence the election can (sometimes) reduce being blindsided by an election. It may reduce my impartiality as a voter, but it definitely helps me process politics as a citizen.
Even if you're not in the bay area, you should check out credit unions or really anything else (Wealthfront, betterment, withcompound, just buying bonds/tbills, etc), so you're not getting approximately 0.0000% on CDs.
That's the way to make sure you're unhappy. Exercise, and life, should never be about "embracing the suck". Finding ways to exercise that you enjoy and that can fit in your schedule makes it a default state rather than something you avoid.
I think Nate Silver must be some kind of punching bag in right wing media circles, because some variation of this comment is posted basically every time 538 comes up on HackerNews.
The datasets are massive, and curating them into buckets of fact/fiction by hand would be next to impossible. Automating curation of the datasets with the latest and greatest GPT sounds very possible however. GPT-supervised learning could be the key to bootstrapping robust models, and I would be shocked if OpenAI isn't using GPT4 to filter their datasets as we speak.
It does seem reasonable that EEG can be used for a very, very crude type of mind reading. I believe it can show that you are in REM sleep or not in REM sleep, for example.
It definitely seems like an active and vibrant community.

Saw the notes about putting distributions together while I was putzing around.

Part of the issue is that I couldn’t find MLIR-specific packages on Ubuntu jammy. Built-from-source was a different version than the packaged LLVM and clang. I couldn’t find a way to get mlir-translate, for example, without compiling from source.

I’m sure I could have figured it out with enough time, but I was short on time. Hopefully graduate with my master’s on Thursday actually.
The KL divergence (number of bits needed to encode one message with the coding scheme of another) is extremely high here between perspectives, so communicating the shared values here may be hard.

You might appreciate taking an opportunity to just listen a bit to where some more downtrodden people are if you have that opportunity come up organically. I've lived in the perspective that you share, and I've lived in others, and it just took me cumulatively a lot of traveling and talking and listening to people to hear and develop other opinions and ways of seeing things (not just how other people in my in-group said how they saw things -- perhaps one of the fronts of some of the most toxic assumptions that I've ever made about people in the end). I ended up changing my opinions to different models as a result.

If the parent message appears to mostly fit within the "I'm angry, so I'm going to burn down the world and do what I want and get my revenge and just take my anger out, including on people who have no control whether or not I get to hurt them in my selfishness" kind of category, I'd encourage you to look a bit deeper at the core of it. It's really hard to summarize lives in bullet points, but having lived within one category of oppression and knowing many people who are oppressed, it's hard to fully communicate what it's like, why people feel like it's the only option, and how it's a way that people are trying to enact change while still minimizing damage on the whole (strange as it may seem. the silent story of people being pushed down in civilly trying to change things is horrifying. i don't pine for violence myself, but i understand it for those who have been downtrodden in the ways that they have).

I know that's not really directly answering it, but walking a mile is really the best solution that I know of that we have in all of the crazy division that there is today.
Yeah, after all everyone knows that prostitution rings, human trafficking, arm dealing, illegal lending, etc etc, they all run themselves. Time to disband all the dedicated police units then.
...which, if enacted, will cause any/all mining done in the US to migrate out of the US.

Do we really want all these legitimate tech operations to depart the US?

Is that really what the Biden administration wants?

Doesn't it seem... I don't know, shortsighted?
Anyways is in the OED with its first recorded usage being in 1560, but it does have this use as any ways, we have to wait until 1784 for it to become a the single word anyways. This use is different than the common modern use and is more a synonym for always, in anyway, in any respect, etc. The modern use does not become common for another 50 years or so and by 1865 we get Dickens putting it to use with the rather good "Anyways, I am glad, etc." Anyhow is also in there along with anywhat and anywhen but no anywho but I am still working from the old Second Edition and not the continuously updated online/soon to be third edition.

Anyways, I think it is safe to say that anyways has been a word in written English for quite some time now.
Eh, eye of the beholder.

I honestly mostly follow the sports odds and I’d argue that Nate’s models are some of the most biased out there for that.
As for the limited paperwork rate adjustment, the word you're looking for is recast (instead of a refinance), and it's fairly common
The reason people have been saying it's gettting better for 3 years is because it has been. PackageCompiler 1.0 was released in 2020 which made it possible to distribute Julia programs as self contained apps, Julia 1.6 released in 2021 added parallel precompilation which made loading a lot faster. Julia 1.8 was released in 2022 which improved precompilation a bunch, and Julia 1.9 will be released in 1 to 2 weeks and makes precompilation cache native code which significantly improves things again.

Deployment is a fundamentally hard problem for dynamically typed languages. Shipping a Julia .so will probably never be as easy as shipping a .jar file in java. However, Julia has gotten a lot more deployable over the past 3 or so years and work on that front continues. Julia 1.10 already has a bunch of compiler speedups that make things a bunch faster than 1.9 (I expect 1.10 to ship late 2023 or early 2024)
Probably. I suspect that quite a few people who in the past would satisfy their urges via actual physical sexual abuse find porn "good enough" to not bother, for one. Also, the average age at which teens first have sex has been rising steadily, which translates to fewer teen pregnancies etc.
> > NATE DOT SILVER DOT MEDIA AT GMAIL DOT COM

> Artifacts of another age. This stuff won't work anymor

Its not a protection scheme, its repeating the content of the mailto link with emphasis.

(If it was a protection scheme, there wouldn’t be a mailto link.)
> But it’s not magical either.

What is the meaning of magical in this context though?
How will you catch them?
It's completely off topic and very culty to bring up Musk in a thread about IBM.
Our societies are going haywire....

We really need to get back to the good old days – you know the ones – where slavery was legal, women didn't have the right to vote, and homosexuality could be punished with forced sterilization.
Who's being robbed: a citizen of the developing world without health care or clean drinking water, or a wealthy computer programmer trying to make online ads 1% more effective?
> Perhaps you don't know how to pick phones?

Right. They’re doing it wrong?
I prefer having failures in the type signature so the type checker makes sure they're handled, although it depends on the failure, occasionally I just raise an error like you suggest.
(If you check the other comments this person is making, it appears to be some trolling, which is confusing given the karma of the account. I'll be adding flags to them as well.)
I'm saddened that in the 4th wall examples they didn't add Leslie Nielsen from Naked Gun walking around the prop door. I thought that was the classic example.

For reference - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=siE_182RwpA
I remember this comic that ridiculed the "Occupy Wall Street doesn't have a goal" talking point, one of the many corporate-pushed talking points meant to discredit the movement: [1]

1: https://images2.dailykos.com/i/user/2722/TMW2011-10-12colorl...