skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
SVB's fail was because of radical speed in deposit inflow, which was invested in fixed rate bonds just at the moment that the Fed was on a rising rate ratchet. Because of an affluent clientele, they had unusually high % of uninsured deposits. Very unlikely that a small bank would have had the need to layoff so many deposits in such a short time span. Very unlikely that a smaller bank would have had the high % of uninsured deposits. These are the funds that jump ship immediately.

First Republic fail was because of large pool of fixed rate assets....(jumbo low-rate mortgages and Treasury Notes) in a rising rate context. They also had an affluent clientele and thus a high % of uninsured deposits. The fixed rate assets lost so much value while rates rose, that they had no tangible equity. Thus, the hot money deposits raced out of the bank.

Smaller banks typically don't have such a concentration of affluent customers, which means that more of their clientele would be under the threshold for FDIC insurance. Smaller banks probably have a good book of commercial loans which are commonly priced at a variable rate.

I am baffled that SVB and FRB did not hedge their fixed rate portfolios with interest rate swaps....Maybe their mind was on staying abreast of the white-hot tech sector instead of wringing their hands about the next Fed rate decision.
Edit: my comment might seem out of place now, but the comment I was replying to originally had this paragraph:

> I write a lot of code with it and it’s extraordinarily, obviously clear that when prompted right, it increases productivity 2-5x. My company recently banned it and it has been excruciating. Like going back to coding before StackOverflow and Google existed.

I would still appreciate any tips in this regards
SBF is not involved, its the new management and the bankruptcy court

https://www.reuters.com/technology/bankrupt-crypto-exchange-...
I think people have different jobs and different skill levels. For some it gives them a boost for others it slows them down. Translating what you want exactly into english is a different way of producing something for many. Some people are really smart and they don't need a calculator. No shame in using a calculator that mostly works.
So you are basically just making up nonsense to justify your own laziness and lack of discipline. If you want to lie to yourself to feel better about your own failings then go ahead, but if you post misinformation on here then expect to get called out.

Passion and philosophy is irrelevant. Lack of exercise is a proven killer, worse than smoking. It also delivers cognitive benefits beyond just the physical stuff. That is medical fact.

https://peterattiamd.com/outlive/
TLS isn't SSL.
> Phoenix, which I consider the national capitol of bad drivers

I would have agreed, but then I experienced El Paso.

> no soul drives the 55 speed limit on I-17, but it’s getting measurably worse.

True. Feels like combat.

--

FWIW, I put some Jesus themed bling on my car. It seemed to help in Texas. Phoenix, not so much.
For the HN audience I would expect the GitHub link would be more useful than the .... Whatever that page is supposed to be.

https://github.com/redcanaryco/mac-monitor
Isn't this always the case in life? There are people having fun without you.
To a point, this mirrors "leetcode" in technology: those who can pass the "interview" of an election campaign are almost universally poorly suited to the job.
partially, it would be at $6.2bn based on November 2022 crypto prices.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/bankrupt-crypto-exchange-...
There's a good summary in the Introduction to Kevin Murphy's second tome [1]. He quotes Josh Tenenbaum, who said: "Intelligence is not just about pattern recognition and function approximation. It’s about modeling the world".

I agree, and I think Goodman & Tenennaum [2] is a great place to see other things that may pop up in the road to AGI. LLMs are great, but they do too much at once. I think moving towards AGI requires some form of symbolic reasoning, possibly combined with LLMs, which may play the role of intuition and kitchen-sink memory.

[1] https://probml.github.io/pml-book/book2.html

[2] https://probmods.org
reuters good enough?

https://www.reuters.com/technology/bankrupt-crypto-exchange-...
What a silly comment. Those are assets purchased by the cops to enable them to provide the services they do to the public.

On the other hand, we have a private for-profit company that is piggybacking off the cops vehicles in order to make profit for it's shareholders. That would never be allowed in any democratic country, but then neither would bribery/lobbying so [insert shrug emoji]
>>[Citation needed]

I was watching it in real time. The effect was mostly in 2022 (they hadn't really gotten it going in 2020)

Here's the 538 headline before election day about how the Republicans were in very good shape, even potentially a blowout win [0]

In fact, it was the exact opposite.

Yes, there was a lot of statistical handwaving about how they were really right, but, not really. BTW, this was just the top result from a DDG search, and is only one of the things I remember.

[0] https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-polling-error/
Emergency emergent emergence
The article concludes there is no difference except the ones outlined, you pointed out that sub economies have differing results. To have no difference in population but significant difference in sub population thw variance needs to be opposite enough to cancel out significance just by how the math works.
The question was why not, and the answer was because it's more risky. Why would Nate Silver want to do all the things you correctly listed as options when he can simply use the safer, more simple, free gmail option?
Is this inflation-adjusted to compare to 2008 dollars?
One more thing psychedelics has pointed me towards is the feeling that reality may be recursive in some possibly incomprehensible way. So yeah!! Maybe!
You cherry pick examples that fit a narrative.

Many things thought to be a distant dream have now become reality - cheap solar electricity, pocket computer for everyone, mRNA vaccine, affordable electric car with acceptable range, reusable rocket, satellite based broadband internet, image recognition, translation, and now generative AI.

Why didn’t we hear much about them from CEOs before they were available?

Also, which CEO promised fusion being available in the next few years? Or only wildly optimistic scientists?
I'm not sure of the details, but I believe that XLA is starting to use MLIR now, which is what Mojo uses behind the scenes. I'm not sure if Mojo will use MLIR directly or go via XLA.
I saw this on Twitter earlier and the photo somehow gave the slightest sense [1] that the laptop was flexing under some strain.

So I wonder, even if that's not the case here... :-) how much would it take, and what would happen? Would the cupholder break first or would a key cap fly off first?

And what is on the top-10 list of the least-safe 3D-printed laptop accessories?

1. https://twitter.com/FrameworkPuter/status/165310366873094963...
> N/A (Know where this came from?)

https://eycndy.com/splitscreen?itemId=axdz1h5b22ecka9q12voxj... Trois souvenirs de ma jeunesse (2015)

https://eycndy.com/splitscreen?itemId=71ke0wcliam5bx1hd2wvaj... Sisters (1972)

https://eycndy.com/splitscreen?itemId=seohywjmhaktt6kjmt7g8x... Sisters (1972)

https://eycndy.com/rotoscoping?itemId=bh2cjz8pipya1nskejta43... Adidas Here to Create

https://eycndy.com/rotoscoping?itemId=2afcukjqbz27e96l0qmb9h... Adidas Here to Create

https://eycndy.com/splitscreen-1?itemId=4o31q53c05kl5j76zikh... The Perfection (2018)

https://eycndy.com/splitscreen-1?itemId=22teiyrsa1n8t134f1bk... Jennifer's Body (2009)

https://eycndy.com/splitscreen-1?itemId=dio7my4nmf2xbkzut9je... Reservoir Dogs (1992)

tool gives useful lead? (listed order)
Bing YYYYnYnY
Google Search YYYYYYYY
Google Lens nnYYnYnn
TinEye nYYYnYYY
Yandex nYYYnYYY
I noticed some bias because I only analyze sources in English. It should be easy to make ChatGPT also read news in other languages, maybe that will help. Is that what you meant?
If I have anything to do with it, there will be high level model training tools. Perhaps something a little like fastai, for instance?...
What can I say? It's a dirty job. :)
This presupposes that "AGI" means:

1) The first AGI we create will immediately break free of our control

2) It will either have already been given, or will find some way to take, control of physical systems

3) It will create the Singularity

4) Its goals will be to advance itself at our expense

None of these are remotely givens. Even if we grant that AGI is possible with our current level of technology (which is also not at all a given), the Singularity is nothing but science fiction. It's an interesting idea, but there's no real reason to think it's close to what an AGI's capabilities would be like in reality.
My recommendations are things I'd never think to type into a searchbox. "Blindly" as in typing random words to discover content because I don't know how else you would find it.
aside from the batteries, my Tile devices just straight up do not activate most of the time when I actually need them. I'll be a few feet away and they won't make any sound // won't connect when I try to ping them. AirTags have been FAR more reliable, and the direction finding is next-level.
I would seriously recommend you advertise this heavily on NextDoor paid ads - will make an absolute truckload of cash!!!!!!!
It's not a problem of being unable to build. This article mentions the company is building an _entire neighborhood_ with 14+ homes all brand new. That clearly isn't some lack of space or zoning problem.

The problem is the housing market has been inflated to astronomical levels because the housing industry is a critical part of our country GDP. If the price of homes fails to go up then banks will lose money and fail (just like in the aftermath of 2008). It's not profitable to build cheap, affordable housing so it doesn't happen.

The market is broken.
At the 25 second mark: isn’t that one of the high end Roland electronic drum kits?
The Roma have been trying to claim lineage with Rome for a very long time, for reasons that should be obvious to anyone who is aware of the Roma. Apparently if they say it loud enough and often enough it becomes true. After all, they are now called Roma.
Don’t forget mentioning your new AI girlfriend
I'm not sure if it officially qualifies as a "plan", but a pure mojo numpy has certainly been discussed... personally I'd guess that's something that will need to be built to have this all work as well as possible.
For the life of me, I'm not able to understand why none of these lists include Lehman Brothers?

A commenter below posted:

>Lehman Brothers is also not included because, even though it was a US bank, it was an investment bank with no FDIC insured deposits. It was around the size of all of this year's failures, combined.

So does this mean, that since Lehman had no customer deposits, it doesn't count?
Nope. It's an argument from Lyapunov exponents, translated into layman's terms.

Edit: I noticed we could be reading this in different directions -- I'm reading the OP's post as treating LLMs as large Markov-chain-memorizing models, which is where the statistics argument comes into play. Heck, the curse of dimensionality alone makes the memorization aspect of it intractable, so there is a sort of compression, only what kind of compression. I agree that statistically it's going to approach what happens in the real world on the text as things get larger, but simple hallucinated chains of text in an autoregressive matter severely breaks the causal regime. I think that was where I was coming from originally, please do let me know if I've misunderstood, however.

Second Edit: w.r.t. to the underlying manifold generalization, yes, this is a natural consequence of the operators used. directly measuring how much it's happening is intractable but by the nature of the system operating under them we are actually somewhere on that compressive spectrum of generalization.
One of the core points of the book, if I recall correctly, is that regulations should be made in practical, data-driven ways and "bring everyone along for the ride". Without this approach, we will fail.

This means starting with high-impact changes that people will buy into, and prove to them that the change is worth it. Removing gas stoves is a terrible move at this stage.
“person with vested business interest says their sector/product/company is going to revolutionize the world” wow no way you don’t say
> "NPR isn't tagged as government-funded anymore, so what's the beef?" - Elon Musk

As if he didn't start this. This whole thing reads as highly manipulative to drum up... checks article... one twitter handles worth of business. It's probably actually more than this, because I bet NPR pulls an audience with it, but this is probably more likely to backfire and end with more people/orgs following NPR's lead.
There was an amusing study where they tried to measure how phonemic various language orthographies are by training an ANN model on some data to convert back and forth between spelling and pronunciation, and then checking the error rate on more inputs: https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.13321. Here's the table from that paper; numbers are percentages of accurate guesses.

Orthography Write Read
----------- ---------- ----------
ar 84.3 ± 0.8 99.4 ± 0.3
br 80.6 ± 0.6 77.2 ± 1.6
de 69.1 ± 1.0 78.0 ± 1.5
en 36.1 ± 1.5 31.1 ± 1.3
eo 99.3 ± 0.2 99.7 ± 0.1
es 66.9 ± 2.0 85.3 ± 1.3
fi 97.7 ± 0.3 92.3 ± 0.8
fr 28.0 ± 1.4 79.6 ± 1.7
it 94.5 ± 0.8 71.6 ± 0.9
ko 81.9 ± 1.0 97.5 ± 0.5
nl 72.9 ± 1.7 55.7 ± 2.2
pt 75.8 ± 1.0 82.4 ± 0.9
ru 41.3 ± 1.6 97.2 ± 0.5
sh 99.2 ± 0.3 99.3 ± 0.3
tr 95.4 ± 0.7 95.9 ± 0.6
zh 19.9 ± 1.4 78.7 ± 0.9

It's easy to see here that English is truly dismal, so being better than it is not a great achievement. Spanish is okay but far from the best. Esperanto (eo) tops the chart for obvious reasons, but note how Serbo-Croatian (sh) is an example of truly outstanding phonemic orthography for an already existing language. Turkish (tr) and Finnish (fi) are also impressive.
I'm not opposed to shutting down SEO BS, but I think there's a middle ground somewhere. Like the Netflix model seems reasonable. They're promoting content they think I'll watch, but the show titles and thumbnails aren't quite clickbait. They do fiddle with the thumbnails to increase engagement but at least it's still pics from the movie/show.
So basically, a ton of more failures in teh past, now it's slowed down but we are losing our stuff over it?
𐐌 𐐰𐑅𐐿 𐐿𐐪𐐻 𐑀𐐩𐐹 𐑄 𐐶𐑉𐐮𐐻 𐑄 𐐿𐐲𐑋𐐯𐑌𐐻 𐐮𐑌 𐑄 𐐼𐐯𐑅𐐯𐑉𐐻 𐐈𐑊𐐹𐐲𐑌𐐼 𐐰𐑌𐐼 𐐮𐑄 𐐿𐐳𐐼 𐐼𐐬 𐐮𐑄.
It is quite plausible that bitcoin becomes the global reserve asset, just as gold was in the past. Bitcoin is superior to gold in every single aspect except for the number of years it has existed. To learn more:

https://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Standard-Decentralized-Altern...
The issue is that the dispatch systems aren't unified - in Kansas, for example, every county has it's own dispatch system set up it's own way, not tied to the others.

Agreed. And it can be even worse than that. At one time, my county (Brunswick County, NC) had three separate dispatch centers: the primary county 911 center, then a Southport specific dispatch center, and then a Long Beach specific center. And none of the agencies involved had any kind of integration of their systems (radio or CAD, etc).

That has improved somewhat now (everybody is dispatched by one center now, and everybody uses the NC VIPER radio system) but the point remains that most dispatch centers aren't integrated with each other. The CAD system for one county doesn't "know about" incidents happening in neighboring counties, or anything. They are generally almost completely isolated islands, with the primary means of interop being telephone calls from one center to another to request mutual aid or EMS move-ups, etc.

So yeah, expect it to be a while before there's any meaningful integration that can be expanded to include private companies or other 3rd parties, when the dispatch centers barely have any interop between each other.
Yeah. It's not super terrible. The restrictions are pretty reasonable to keep the company from being overrun with people that take a job, buy a house, and leave.

I don't think it's great for competition since smaller companies won't be able to offer the same incentive, but it does create downward pressure on the housing market and at least the employees end up owning a major asset.

Another way to look at it is the company providing enough total compensation for their employees to buy a house. It almost seems unnaturally altruistic which kind of freaks me out. Lol.
Separate question: what is the eventual monetization strategy? Of course, feel free to not answer, though if that plan is not a secret and makes sense to people, it might help spread the technology.
Great news. It's really unhealthy for the global economy to be so dependant on one currency. Hopefully we see the Euro and Indian Rupee grow in prominence.
The advantage of AirTags is the large phone tracking network: every recent iPhone defaults to tracking them. That's hundreds of millions of devices globally, with probably even more density in the US. The main competitors (Tile and Samsung) have much smaller networks. I'm not sure what network you'd get with generic "Bluetooth Tracker" tags: technically it could be Apple but I can't find any evidence for such products online.
This; I used to build my own custom ROMs for my Android devices to get a close-to-AOSP experience + Google services + rooted app store, but it was a lot of overhead and maintenance, plus still slow and unstable compared to iOS. Now that iPhones have had great battery life + excellent performance for a while, combined with great cameras and apps that are iOS-specific, it'd be very painful to go back to Android.
I don’t care because $1.50 is a good wage in the countries where these workers live.

Of course I want cheap stuff, who doesn’t, but I don’t want it to the exclusion of all else. I don’t want to exploit or harm workers to get stuff. In this case, I’m comfortable with the wages paid by these folks, and hope that their employer has some retraining program when moderation is rewritten to use AI and fewer humans.
Economics is theoretical. Nobody believes it perfectly describes the real world. No model is correct, but all models are useful.

As well, nobody said economics happens on an instantaneous timescale. Those trends can still happen, but take weeks, months or even years to play out.
You're right in that (some) people don't have "extra" money. Most people can't print themselves money.

However, some people do have "extra" money, particularly people who have access to the money printer, or who are bailed out by the people with the money printer. Guess who buys most of the government debt, allowing the government to overspend? The Fed.

Government spending isn't in a vacuum either. Every dollar the government spends goes into someone else's pocket, who they go on to further spend it. And the government doesn't spend it's money equally, meaning not everyone gets that "free money" equally, which means, some people are getting the short end of the stick, as others are getting richer because of it.

If you want to know how the rich get richer, while the poor get poorer, this is how.
Gold was a terrible reserve asset which is why we stopped using it. Recreating all the same things that made it bad, and also removing industrial applications, doesn't a good reserve make.

And any book with a [edit](foreword) by Michael Saylor, the man whose fraud basically popped the 2001 tech bubble isn't worth the paper it's printed on. The man should have at the time been banned from running any publicly traded company. [1] [edit] What's next, a medical ethics book by Elizabeth Holmes with a [edit](foreword) by Martin Shkrelli?

[1] https://www.computerworld.com/article/2589923/update--micros...
Eh no...
This is my frustration put really well. When people talk about how humans are also just a form of LLM (not that the above comment did exactly that). That might even be true, but simplifying things to that degree doesn't help actually discuss what is going on. The original comment is as far as I know correct... while I don't have a PhD some of my undergraduate work was in control theory and ML, and it works really well. The underlying methods we used were from NASA in the late 70s.. surely there is something more in the field no?
It is all about deterrence levels. Thieves aren't completely dumb but they also take the path of least resistance. We are going to do things like rotating MACs that will make it harder for generic apps to be useful and further make thieves have to be more intentional.
Netherlands there are legitmate places to buy weed.
Portugal, dealers will hassle you on the street (probably with fake stuff)
I sometimes feel startup founders would understand the issue with 'De dollarizing' the most.

American customers tend to be the best, pay the most so of course the customer base is largest in dollar terms (as opposed to say Euros, or Yuan (practically non-existent customer/consumer base)).

Looking at it from a strategy or top level point of view of course it looks like dollars are dominant, but from a customer point of view - and the US trade deficit its easy to see why: You have a customer base that is profitable, and a large amount of them. Far more than any other country. It is just very hard to get an alternative to an American consumer.

The poor rate of savings, the spending of more than you have, etc results in a pretty good deal for the person on the other side and the manifestation of it is in the accumulated dollar capital
Why would a supply chain issue in a handful of products cause the price of all items to go up?

That makes no sense.
https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/5265/cooling-a-c...

To counteract a 2-centigrade-degree drop per minute, you'd only need 35W to keep 250ml at a constant 85C. (Or 65C if that's where you start it.)
Yeah, but it’s an excuse for the usual excellent HN pen appreciation.
IANAL but it seems like a totally different scenario.

Regarding the censorship, obviously the laws apply inside Chinese territory. France is not China so the laws do not apply.

But regarding GDPR, the EU user is still inside EU territory when visiting your website and giving you his personal data. If this user was, I don't know, in Indonesia while visiting your website, then Indonesian laws would probably apply. Which is why the analogy of a foreign company doing some activity in the EU (like selling a product) seems more apt.

Again, IANAL and this is just my superficial impression.
I have some suggested reading for you, as well: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Delving into the history of the labor movement in the 1930s might be insightful, too.
I believe it was a limitation of paint technology at the time. Colored paints took more skill and time to apply than black. Additionally, the color would chip and deteriorate in a short amount of time.
I fail to see any abuse or mass surveillance. “Find my” is end-to-end encrypted, and Apple does not have access to the device location or anyone’s identity:

https://support.apple.com/guide/security/find-my-security-se...
Reminds me of the cliché: personal morality is what you do when people aren't watching.
I was a little curious how this compares to the use of USD during the Cold War, before USSR collapse, but it's hard to compare since so much of that period was under the Bretton Woods system. A long term historical perspective to the potential consequences of de-dollarization would be an interesting read.
South Korea sometimes pulls this too.

Also other parts of SE Asia will demand an on the spot piss test.
Well, they're visualizing a dataset from the FDIC. So, it's more like it doesn't count due to a technicality. It's not clear to me if there's an "official" dataset that includes all non-FDIC institutions.