skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Ok let’s play that out.

If I’m at the top marginal rate, I effectively gain 40 cents for every untaxed dollar.

Loewe then tells me that instead of paying $5k for my calfskin bag today, I can take out a 1 year $1k loan with a 400% APR via store credit card.

So now instead of needing $8.3k of gross income to afford that bag, I only need $5.7k!

And you know who loses that $2.6k? The government.

It’s a market skew, most people agree that frivolous consumption shouldn’t be subsidized in that way, but the home thing is still up for debate (though I think it’s a bad skew now that we aren’t trying to win the Cold War, personally).
I think both hardcore (D) and hardcore MAGA people have a lot to learn that wanting something to be true doesn't make it so.
can someone share a link to the demo? can’t seem to find it.
If you abuse someone to the point that they break then it's hard to blame them for their actions against you. It's tragic to see someone feel that they have no other avenue than violence.
The Fiat Crisis
I think most of us understand the line for gov't involvement to be much closer to the abuse end of the scale than the ate-too-much-candy end. We know empirically that gov't intervention itself has significant consequences that may completely outweigh the damage being done by whatever bad behavior they were trying to solve.
He was criticized for giving trump too large a chance to win iirc

Here he spikes the football over it: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gav...
A word of warning: the descriptions of the bridges reveal each of the films' endings.
FiveThirtyEight had about a 1/3 chance of Trump winning, far higher than anyone else was modeling. And he was one of the few pundits openly talking about how it wasn't some insane longshot. I have no idea where this meme came from, but it's annoyingly persistent.
It's generally not the smartest bunch.
Did we forget about this item just last week?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/truck-theft-suspect-fatally-sho...

Maybe I missed it here.
also here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35795350 with more details than just a twitter link
Wasn't that mainly due to the fact that people lie when they're asked if they'll vote for a highly distasteful candidate?
Well that sure looks similar:

https://pine.fm/music/ChordGear

I rotated the inner ring to capture the sense that (for example) Amin shares two notes with Cmaj and 2 notes with Fmaj, so belongs between them.

You can drag the chord gear, click it for a kind of awful synth-piano sound that I had a lot of fun making, switch modes, etc. I actually originally made this in wood/acrylic:https://docs.google.com/document/d/1lwIS-1sPNyIpYM1nCcFkU9Iq...
but I like how the online version renames the notes sensibly.)

Mostly I was just trying to explore music theory concepts, and have a few other toys at https://pine.fm/music

(also the code is gross; I've been a manager for almost a decade now and am rusty; you've been warned, lol)
Curiously enough, Tony Robbins just published this a few hours ago, from an old interview:

> ...There was a study where they took a group of actors, had them go out to 200 people and ... they walked up to each person and ... held a cup of coffee, they walk up to you [and hand you the cup], ... look down so you can't say yes or no, and you'd end up taking it - they get their phone, they adjust it, they take [the cup] back and say "Thank you", that's the whole thing - same facial expression for every person, only difference, half got an iced coffee the other got hot coffee. Now 30 minutes go by, they send out ... a research assistant with a clipboard and they come up to these same individuals and say, "If you give us two minutes your time we'll give you twenty dollars: will you just read these three paragraphs and tell us what you think of this character?" ... they read the three paragraphs and they say "What do you think of the main character in this little story?". 81% that were given iced coffee say the person is cold and uncaring; 80% percent (a one percent variance) of those [of the] hot said the person is warm and connected and caring. ... Most people think their thoughts are their thoughts, when really your thoughts have been primed by the environment
I mean he was getting crap for even suggesting trump had a chance. NYT had Hillary at like 99%
>God, the fact that stealing focus still exists in 2023 is maddening. Please just let me open windows and apps in the background while I continue to work uninterrupted in the main focus window in the foreground. Even web browsers let you open tabs in the background, why haven’t OS’s caught up to the yet.

I3 tiling WM does it reasonable enough; I use it pretty much in "app per workspace" model (with config auto-putting started app on its designated workflow) and if app on other workspace wants focus it doesn't get it, it just lights up a given workspace and app window; there are also config options to explicitly disable all or some windows from taking focus.

> That said, I like the concept of this OS design. It reminds me a little of the theoretical concept behind Star Trek’s LCARS interface, where the interface adapts to the user and the task at hand. As a power user I doubt I’d use this myself, unless it could be installed on top of NixOS, but it might be more intuitive and accessible to a more general user base.

That idea seems to only work where either you build the interface for yourself, or for a specific narrow set of tasks
Honestly, "no Emacs" is one rule that would make me quit.
Agree to all of the above, which is why im certain it will be widespread. What now?
This will probably allow building a detailed model of every FF user (as Fakespot will be probably enabled by default). Not only browsing history (like in a failed Google Chrome FLoC attempt). Shopping interests, behavior on every page and so on. Even mouse movements and key press frequences.
That's probably the reason why the overwhelmingly majority of central banks worldwide stick with IBM mainframes. It's nearly impossible to hack, or even access, anonymously even when connected to the internet. And even then only a small pool of select people would know how to do anything meaningful with that access.
Sorry Dang, but that’s just how a lot of people see it.
You feel its a valuable use of a working machine to do this?
Then things are a-changin'. I don't know any current "Republicans" that like Eric Adams.
I'd happily earn less knowing that the people working in literal mines to support my success felt less soul destroyed.
Yeah, but even that breach isn't a public thing. The contents of it, I mean. Like, I can't go to a site somewhere and just look up people's names and find out their socials.

That's what I'm hoping for. A full database dump of everybody's SSN that's made embarrassingly public, so people can see just how useless SSNs are. I could enter "Marvin Garrison, DOB 1974-04-20" and get Marvin's SSN.

A torrent file, made available for even a short period of time, would be preserved forever and put the final nail in the coffin.

I know this sounds like some nerd version of Fight Club, but I stand by it :)
Wealth & power distributions are a little more complex than just 'having stuff.' In biological bodies, excess concentrations of resources in a single organ is associated with illness, exacerbation and proliferation of other conditions, and eventually failure and death. Intense wealth concentration strikes me as the social equivalent of diabetes.
> IBM as a company barely makes sense at all at this point.

I started my career at IBM in the 1980s. My dad worked there before me.

It's impossible to convey how much hubris existed in the company then, at the peak of the "No-one ever got fired for buying IBM" days. IBM was a god.

The company had never laid off a single employee. The talk was that the R&D divisions had multiple generations of innovative tech up their sleeves and if any competitor ever got close, well they'd just pop something out like from a vending machine to kick their ass. I believed it.

It became obvious when the company started losing the PC market that things weren't actually that rosey at all, and there were serious issues.

Later it became obvious that the company was turning into a consulting company instead of a technology company and the glory days were well over.

Nothing's changed since then. Things have only gone from bad from worse for IBM.

My point - nothing really but disagreement with this observation.

IBM still makes sense, as a dying beast but with customers that can still be milked. As long as those customers can be mikled, IBM will continue to make sense.
Correct. He was right about the 2016 presidential election.
I'm not sure if this is sarcastic or not, but putting aside the impact of this statement from, say, even a non-zero-sum game perspective, this statement, er, almost ironically mirrors perfectly a few choice historical examples of why the flood broke the way it did in the past.

I'm not sure if there's a way I could succinctly share a response detailing the why, other than certain general desires for relatively decent self survival and for the general wellbeing of the population outside of our small walled garden. Theres's a lot of debate that could be had over the second half of that last sentence, so all I can comfortably say is that what we take affects other people.

But the bigger part is probably some of the historical irony in the statement, since it is likely what a museum piece would use if translating historically what has happened in the past into a modern day hypothetical scenario, in terms of how different sides viewed the issue and communicated.
Flip two coins. If they're both heads Trump wins.

That's approximately what Silver's team was saying. No idea where this "sure thing" idea of your's comes from.
It's not a torrent, but I think the best way to retrieve the entire collection is using the internetarchive "ia" command line tool. Here's a couple pointers:

https://blog.archive.org/2020/10/21/want-some-terabytes-from...

https://archive.org/developers/internetarchive/cli.html
I remember leading up to Election Day his predictions were giving her 66% and Trump 33% (IIRC). Which means if you roll a die and it comes up as 1 or 2 then Trump wins (which isn't all that unlikely)

Many people mistook these numbers to mean Clinton was going to get 66% of the vote and thus were expecting a landslide, but that is not what his numbers meant.

Now I wasn't reading any of the analysis he or his team was putting out, but the modeling seemed reasonable to me.
Netlify Gotrue – SWT based API for managing users and issuing SWT tokens
Turns out when statistics say there is a 5% chance of something happening, there's about a 5% chance of it happening.

Also, for 2020, it turns out the actual vote split between the two US presidential candidates was pretty much exactly in line with polls.
what a great image https://balajis.com/content/images/size/w1600/2023/05/image-...
People have a lot of nostalgia for those old forums and I can understand that to some extent, but most things that people complain about with reddit applied to the forums as well... often to a much greater extent.

Piss off the admin and you might be insta-banned with no recourse. You'd even lose connections to the other users on the forum and would have no way to reach them. You didn't have the option of opening a competing forum where all of the old users already had access like you do with opening a new sub. You'd also lose access to the posts themselves and any content you found useful for the private forums.

You were reliant on the admin to keep the site running. Most had extensive downtime. Things would often break. The admins would have to run charity fund raisers to keep things up and many would threaten to take everything with them if people didn't pay up.
News Minimalist – Only significant news
What you're doing with them ? Even on browser tabs I usually (I have vertical tabs addon so it is on the side of the screen) stop when I have full tabbar.
Fivethirtyeight had Trump at a 28.6% chance to win on the night[1], the web page is still up. I recall that being higher than any other polls I saw at the time. A 1 in 3.5 chance isn't that unlikely, it implies they're very close.

[1] https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast
You clearly don’t understand how probability works
No, as others have already explained to you, the president is not part of the branch of government that makes laws. He is (often) part of the process, but he's not part of the branch - not as those words are normally used.

You can go with your own personal interpretation of the definition, or you can talk with the rest of the planet. Your choice.
To nitpick a tiny bit, I feel there's always going to be humans, but the noisy filter of deep learning will help cut down on it a bit.
In my experience, it will only reliably tell you what country you are in.
Yea, best to lean on legal, who will ask "who owns intellectual property written by openAI?" and look at the USPTO decision and the supreme court refusal to grant cert[1] and decide "not us."

[1]: https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-supreme-court-rejects-compu...
Tell me you’re American without telling me you’re American.
That opens a surprisingly large landscape of possible attacks and failure modes. The jsit obvious subset being things that happen when your paid gsuite gets disabled (not paying, abuse report, etc), or the domain lapses or is taken over.

A basic free gmail account is very stable compared to almost any other option. L
> It’s not just that I think these models have a lot of journalistic value

...do they, though?

I'm actually not so convinced in the journalistic value of FiveThirtyEight. It's something I've thought about before.

FiveThirtyEight's political forecasts absolutely provide a desirable service! Who doesn't want to know who will win an upcoming election?

But is it good for people to know who is more likely to win an election? Are these predictions beneficial to society or democracy? I sometimes think they may actually be harmful, decreasing voter turnout by convincing people (correctly or incorrectly) that the result is preordained.

That's not to say Nate Silver is doing anything wrong by making FiveThirtyEight available, but he tends to talk about it as a sort of public good. I'm not sure whether that's accurate.
It already has: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roko%27s_basilisk
You're supposed to care about all the poor souls that can't code and feel guilty that they have no opportunities whatsoever in the future when machine automation and AI drive the economy.
No, no, we need to connect microphone to telemetry so we can hear user yelling "fuck off" at the features
After watching this and the DPReview saga, there is only one takeaway:

Don't sell your company unless you are prepared to walk away and do something else - because at some point you're going to be forced to do so whether you want to or not.
What? At the time, people were lambasting him for saying Trump had a 30% chance, and I know people who think he was too smug after getting 2016 right. I mean, I know this is the internet and people can say whatever they want, but come on.
He’s saying welcome the labor movement which helps… labor. Not welcome ChatGPT
Indeed. I was responding to the claim that they are just as ubiquitous as in the US. Seems a bold claim given my personal experience. I would bet that they will become ever more popular in China as they push heavily toward electric infrastructure with new nuclear power plants and heavy investment in electric cars.
I regret posting. The article itself is a trap. As a developer, the chatbot interface is everything to everyone, as a developer. The application user of course needs a rich interface with affordances.

I am not arguing that the chat interface is everything to everyone from a design perspective. I do think that as UI workbenches improve the need for a dedicated application will nearly disappear though. Applications will become a 1-5 page specification, including the UI.
You seem to underestimate the power of OCR. Or even more probably, the standards around any type of controlled thing. Buy yourself a copy of the NCPDP Telecommunications Standard if you want to see how prescriptions for controlled substances are electronically handled.

It's databases all the way down, me hearty.
How long ago did you switch? I also switched around 2010 or so, but since a few years the performance is definitely acceptable and I’ve been using it for like 6 years now
You remember incorrectly.

https://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirt...
Ah, so the fact was wrong.
For some reason it seems only the U.S. division of T-Mobile is getting hacked, while the german one is rarely in the news...
As opposed to horserace election coverage, which is the single biggest focus of all of American journalism for the year or so leading up to an election... which is of greater journalistic value?
Good opsec/appsec requires doing things that seem unnecessary. And it depends on the context. Passing a private key or raw text customer password to any type of online tool is never a good idea.
Car insurance model. You go buy your own in a competitive marketplace.
I'm sure many aristocrats would have framed the revolutions against them this way. And if you are willing to look at it from the right angle a great many revolutions throughout history come down to more or less this.

You can claim it's not right, but there's right and there's the reality of human nature. Push the populace hard enough they WILL push back.
That the linked document largely framed everything in terms of residential burglaries not enough, I suppose?

There's also the agenda packet from March, 2021:
https://losaltoshillsca.portal.civicclerk.com/event/49/files

Further, because of an increase in residential burglaries in 2020, staff was given direction to research current ALPR technology and report back with the steps that would be involved to implement ALPR cameras in the Town.

You can also watch the city council meetings from both of these dates (same links) to get more context.
thanks. i somehow glossed over those bits. i guess because i agree that the dominance of github is a disaster, so i was focused on the parts of TFA that i agree with.

like you, and i guess contrary to the article (again, like you), i think git itself as lingua franca is fine and maybe even great. certainly it has warts, some of them substantial, but what doesn't. we've come a long way since CVS and (shudder) SCCS.
Spammers aren't that smart, they will absolutely go where the bar is at its absolutely lowest, if not missing entirely. Just changing your SSH server to operate a port that is not 22 is going to stop most if not all random login attempts.
If it has, I haven't noticed. There's plenty of content to read through and the circles I'm interested in are plenty active.

Has it replaced Twitter? No. Nobody is going to do that until they get Kanye, Elon and Trump in one online room together, and good luck with that. I'm content eating my ActivityPub and RSS bran flakes as long as I'm not exposed to ads or personality cults.
Video author here -- The terminal emulator is tn5250j [0], configured to use the IBM Plex Mono [1] font. Full-screen it on a 1080p display and it really is quite pleasant! And there's something that just feels "right" about using IBM's font in this case.

[0] http://tn5250j.org/
[1] https://github.com/IBM/plex
I've never verified an email on reddit (or even provided one) and I haven't noticed any issues. What do you lose access to?
Defunding the police does not necessarily mean lowering their pay.

https://mudcompany.thecomicseries.com/comics/148/
>Your ad hominem about artificial intelligences not being conscious or self-awareness and therefore less capable is neither provable or necessarily true.

This is not the link I was going for. I never said AI is less capable because it is not self aware, and in fact I agreed it was valuable.

My comment was about people seeing ChatGPT as an AGI, treating it as a conscious being, and just taking whatever output at face value. Apologies if I could have written that better.

>it could still have some form of conscious experience

This is where I break hard. This is just not true. LLMs are not conscious. The article demonstrates how ChatGPT doesn't have an inner monologue. It certainly isn't aware of its existence, no more than your toaster. And just increasing the number of parameters does not seem to affect this.
I think you need to factor in risk. This is a simplistic example but demonstrates the influence of risk.

Who would you rather lend a mortgage to?

- Group A, consisting of people who prudently pay debts early

- Group B, consisting of people who pay debts on their due date, and sometimes after

Let's say you lend $100B to each group A and group B. Historical data might show that in aggregate, group A has a default rate of 1% and group B 5% (there's 5% chance that a person from group B defaults on the loan).

Because of defaults (risk), you expect to lose $1B of principal on group A and $5B principal on group B. To break even, you need to charge group A interest that would at least offset their $1B loss, and charge group B interest to offset their $5B loss, hence group B's higher interest rate. One group is not automatically more profitable than the other.

Group B might incur more costs such as late fees, but this only works against their ability to make future payments.
It's disgusting and patronizing honestly.

It's like perpetual chase of "new, inexperienced user", at cost of people using the OS for last 5-10-20 years, and no actual benefit to anyone using it seriously to do work.
It's a visual technique library for the creative industry. Ad-folk, Directors, Cinematographers, Editors, and Creatives in general. It's a compilation (library) of all the best techniques categorized by type.
Please stop reading reddit for your own good
I'm surprised they call it CNC, in English. Isn't that admitting they didn't invent it?
Microsoft never gave them any lifeline. Microsoft was caught shipping stolen Apple Quicktime code and quietly settled with Apple to the tune of $150mil and shipping Apple versions of Office/IE.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_Canyon_Company https://www.theregister.com/1998/10/29/microsoft_paid_apple_...

"the [QuickTime] patent dispute was resolved with cross-licence and significant payment to Apple." The payment was $150 million."

"Intel gave this code to Microsoft as part of a joint development program called Display Control Interface."

"Canyon admitted that it had copied to Intel code developed for and assigned to Apple. In September 1994, Apple's software was distributed by Microsoft in its developer kits, and in Microsoft's Video for Windows version 1.1d."
I'm not sure what you're seeing but you're definitely not seeing genuine AirTags 5 for $13. More likely you're seeing the AirTag holders for that price.
> Having multiple episodes in a row usually leads to a bipolar disorder with true depression following the manic episodes, I was told.

Yes. I am not sure about the odds, but you might have been lucky. It’s a good way to end up properly insane.

I’ve never been anywhere near that state but even milder cases can be frightening. I’ve had 2 periods were everything worked, I was so clever and solved everything, and that was wonderful. Except that after that I could not get out of bed for days, had severe burnouts (no true depression though, thank goodness). And it turned out that what I did was so “clever” and complicated as to be almost re-done from scratch, and also contained mistakes hard to spot amongst the cleverness. It turns out that it does not make you a super-human, but mostly feel like one. I wonder if I had been a painter or a musician instead, if those mistakes would not have been seen as strokes of genius. Since then I’ve noticed that I get mentally tired much more quickly, and I need much more sleep.

Anyway, I’m happy for you that you came out of it in one piece and enlightened.