Disclaimer: I dont work/like Facebook, I dont use Facebook other than for some API testing projects. I use fake name, have one blurry photo and have only hand of real life friends mixed with strangers 20/80 ratio.

> What I am certain of is that Facebook's IPO comes at a time of peak-Facebook.

you may be certain of that if you assume that Facebook monetary mission was to connect all humanbeings, or at least most of it. You cant make enough money off of it. But I think you wrong if you think that Facebook customers are users -- they are advertisers. Zuck said it himself years ago that stage 1 is to sign up everyone and thats only beginning of his idea. Now since he got everyone signed up its time to treat billion people like a test rabbits and see how to maximize revenues per user without pissing off too many of them at the same time. In this case, possibilities are almost endless and I think you will see five years of strong monetary grow until, of course, everyone will jump ship for something new, more exciting.
Further, Facebook IPO comes in a perfect time. Zuck proved to investors that his idea is sustainable. Now its time to reward those who worked hard to achieve it and use stockpile of cash to accelerate and execute "milking cows" ideas. Brilliant!

> The ridiculous valuations Facebook and other web companies,

Facebook numbers came out. $1B profit. I think trading them 23x is reasonable.

> When companies grow so quickly it's hard to know when something really mirrors a true market shift or is just a fad.

2004-2012 thats 8 years of a grow. I fail to recognize it as "fad" since all FB numbers grow users and revenue wise. Is Google a "fad" ? they grew similarly fast, and what? Still in business...

> And even if it's not a fad, competitors can disrupt the market just as easily.

Well, so far we dont have "another" Facebook, because Facebook based its success on a fact that humans, in general, are lazy. Nobody will be willing to switch unless you can benefit something out of it that outweigh reason to drop all your friends and start rebuilding your network all over again, somewhere else. Until then, Facebook is safe.

> by the wonderful Diaspora*

where is the asterix leading? you work at Diaspora?

> Who could have predicted five years ago that Facebook will pose such a threat to Google (search)?

I think majority still search with Google and socialize with friends over Facebook. If you want to point threat to Google, point at Pinterest. Instead of Googling "cool bathroom ideas" and clicking "images", I go to Pinterest and have more pictures of beautiful inspirations for bathroom than I could ever analyze. This is a serious threat to Google.

> But whenever Facebook's inevitable market decline arrives (and it will happen quite soon),

can you shed some light? What do you see that we dont?

> I would like to hope that with time and with the proper lessons learned, this behavior, too, will decline.

So basically you claim that everything related to Facebook is evil. I disagree and billion naive sheep can back me up. Look, I know most hackers here are programmers. Most of us could write Facebook overnite today, and as a weekend project in 2004. This didnt happen. Facebook happened and one guy is worth $25 billion. I get it. Money-wise it hurts me sometime too. But the bottom line is, that you are trying to go against trend and your bitching is not different when 80years old librarian claimed that internet is evil and will kill libraries. Would you like internet to never happen because eventually libraries would be closed? If you go even more back in history, think about horse versus cars. I am pretty sure when cars came out, people riding horses were saying something: "oh, look at that piece of metal! it uses oil, produces deadly fumes and look how fast it goes! But everyone loves them! What a clueless sheep! I am sure it will take some time until enough people will kill themselves for everyone to realize horse-riding is more safe and secure and eventually everyone will switch back from cars to horses". Well, as we know history, this never happened and cars are here to stay. You see my point?