skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
If you really force it to reason, rather than regurgitate arguments from its training set, you will find it is nowhere near the genius line. Make up some rules and have it try to answer questions according to the rules. In my experiments I feel it's something like a 4 or 5 year old child both in its logical limitations and penchant for distraction.

However it's important to note one VERY important thing -- this is not a system that is designed to reason! At all, as far as I know. That just fell out of its ability for language somehow. So to just accidentally be able to reason like a 4 year old human (which are vastly clever compared to the adult of any other animal species I'm aware of) is incredibly impressive and I think the next obvious step is to couple this tech together with some classic computing, which has far exceeded human capabilities for logic and reason for decades already. If ChatGPT has some secondary system for reasoning and just uses the LLM for setting up problems and reading results, I think it could reach superhuman levels of reasoning quite easily.
In some cases, certainly not! Companies will use AI to create all sorts of blogspam and filler content. But perhaps it's better for an AI to be doing it than for a human life to be wasted on creating such things.
Well typically you're not the only other one the train (at the very least there's an operator). Somehow sitting in a small car next to someone else feels different.
Enjoy that now, before the "RESTRICT" Act gets passed!
Using AI for Sales Prospecting Effectively
The solution to this is the same as for human driven traffic:

Road Pricing

When a scare resource is given away for free, it becomes overused. Somehow we have a hard time seeing that for road access, but it's true anyway.
Wrong, there is a middle:

- known possible

- not known to be possible or impossible

- known impossible

"Is possible" suggests case 1, if "is known" is implied (we are talking about science here, so that should be the case). "Is not known to be impossible" covers 2&3.
Him, Don Martin, and Sergio Aragones gave me plenty of laughs and an appreciation for a cartoonist's style as a youth.
I was thinking this same thing - get a good T100-ish iron (preferably a Pinecil[0]), a 60W USB3 power supply, some good 60/40 solder, and you're at least 90% of the way to a real professional soldering station.

[0] https://pine64.com/product/pinecil-smart-mini-portable-solde...
To continue to overextend the analogy though, that's asking people to use Edge over Chrome or Firefox is like trying to market the Smart Car. Few people want to be seen driving it, fuel efficiency be damned.
Sorry, I didn't mean to imply you, I meant the general reader.
The "higher level algorithm" of "how to do abstract thought" is unknown. Even if LLMs solve "how to do language", that was hardly the only missing piece of the puzzle. The fact that solving the language component (to the extent that ChatGPT 'solves' it) results in an agent that needs so much hand-holding to interact with a very simple simulated world shows how much is left to solve.
Will add him
This feels like you replied to the wrong comment, there's nothing remotely resembling a crime in what you replied to.
It doesn't seem to accept regular expressions. Irony is not dead.
> but in this case the bug is caused by Microsoft Defender, yet Firefox, the car manufacturer, is a different entity.

Quoting the Mozilla engineer responsible for most of the recent activity on the bug:

"This problem has two sides: Microsoft was doing a lot of useless computations upon each event; and we are generating a lot of events. The combination is explosive. Now that Microsoft has done their part of the job, we need to reduce our dependency to VirtualProtect."

It was also noted elsewhere in the thread that similar, though less severe, CPU impact is seen with other antivirus products.

Microsoft was doing something wrong that made this operation more expensive than it needed to be, but Mozilla is also doing this far more than any other browser.
My feelings are like yours, except 100x stronger.

I hope this tool dies quick, and never even comes close to taking off. This is the only way the creator(s) of this tool learn in my honest, most humblest opinion.
I solved one recently. Really wish there was a simple time logging multimeter that you could leave plugged in 24 hours.
(2019) Death by organ donation: rational end-of-life meets charity
It's written in the frame of "I used to be a huge believer of not X, but now I learned X is true! And that gives me credibility!". No one talks like this except people trying to manipulate you.
> If you know nothing about the truth or falsity of a statement, knowing who's saying it can provide some information that might tilt your opinion one way or another. But the person saying something does not make the argument true or false

So... it's not a fallacy. It gives you a reasonable amount of information.
That's what Tiggers do best!
> This client is my main source of income, he’s a marketer who outsources the majority of his copy and content writing to me. Today he emailed saying that although he knows AI’s work isn’t nearly as good as mine, he can’t ignore the profit margin.

A core assumption is that his client will succeed with this change. Only time will tell. A thousand different outcomes are possible: the downstream client is upset by the reduction in quality and switches vendors; new entrants underbid the market further; firms start to differentiate on quality at a price premium, further eroding low end margins; the money saved on this is invested in new roles for to ensure marketing quality control.

The error is to believe that a given state of the world is static. It never is. Every day, millions of very smart and capable humans apply their minds to figure out how to make money by selling a product or service that satisfies. And everyday, what it takes to satisfy customers changes a little bit.

Posts like this drop all the context that led to such a job even being possible in the first place.
Yes, but I think this was a fairly obvious conclusion to imagine isn’t it.

If you were going to seriously consider using ChatGPT for AI in a game, you would need each instance of GPT to only know certain information it has gathered. And you would want it to reflect on observations to come up with new thoughts that weren’t observed.

Still, I’d argue you don’t really even need GPT for any of the above. GPT is useful if you want thoughts expressed as natural language, but you could easily code observations and thoughts into an appropriate abstract data structure and still have the same thing, except it’s a bit harder to understand since asking an NPC something in a language it understands and getting back a query result isn’t user friendly, but it can be just as amazing if you know what the data represents. The imprecision and fuzziness of an LLM leaves room for fun weirdness though.
Nah. When I was younger, I always said that I'd fight grey hair tooth and nail... artificial color, shaving my head, whatever. But now I find that as 50 rapidly approaches, I just don't give a shit about that much anymore. I'm pretty content to just let it be what it will be, and my "wardrobe" will pretty much remain jeans and black heavy-metal band t-shirts. I'll still look like "metal dude", just the "old metal dude" version. \m/
It works for a single case, but not sure about long term. We still have at least a little bit of competition. All browsers improve because the other ones improve. If we all switched to Chrome or Safari because of the power saving, we'd just get another version of IE monopoly/stagnation which could result in more power wasted longterm.

The optimum is likely somewhere where most people use the currently most efficient solution and others keep alternatives alive and competitive.
This was the premise of McDs to begin with: They sold burgers for a dime or whatever while everyone else was charging fifty cents. The trick of drastically undercutting the market, of course, is to use innovation cut your costs, which the brothers did by serving such a limited menu that they could optimize the prep for speed.
Ask HN: Switch Jobs to Undo Burnout?
Ten years of development is a long time staring at a screen. I need to reconnect with reality and be a waiter for a year or something.

Is this a good idea or am I shooting myself in the foot? Anyone else done this?
I've had a relevant experience with ergonomic chairs. If you buy the cheap chair, it's hard to be sure. Maybe spending more will fix the problem. The expensive chair though... if that doesn't do it then you can be sure that what you actually needed was weights and a yoga mat.

I'm glad I jumped straight to the expensive one, because otherwise I'd have gotten the middle one and then the expensive one.
> If you're not a programmer, a doctor, or possess some other rare skill, you're fucked.

it's coming for these too

> A continuously growing underclass with continuously declining prospects is a recipe for violence and revolution if we don't start taking this problem more seriously.

the complete breakup of Microsoft, OpenAI, Google and Amazon will be on the political agenda in 2028

failing a political solution: violence will follow

there was a post yesterday that wished GPT-4 was never invented... it's one of Nick Bostrom's black marbles

https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf

by the end of the decade we're all going to be wishing it had never been invented
Are they 1/1000th the price, though? Because if it's 20-30% cheaper, I'd just buy a Pepsi which is already very cheap.
yeah $4 crap to $35 Hakko is night and day.
Bananas are "radioactive", you are "radioactive". In none of these "incidents" was anyone or anything in actual danger.
Which you can infer from the word characters instead of memorization.
I think AI will be used to load up the amount of menial work that can extracted from you.
It might be fake, but I don't see why it's "obviously" fake.

This marketer is likely helping people with SEO. Search engines (allegedly) reward frequent, unique, backlinked content on a subject. Client is a dentist? Write a blog post a week about dentist-related things. Link to his other clients posts for backlinks, and everyone wins.

She says he's a freelance marketer, and subcontracts out to her. If nobody is really reading these posts anyway, does it matter if a human writes it? And if it doesn't matter... why not pocket that extra $80/hr himself? You know, until his clients do the same to him.
To be fair they claim to be a marketing writer so that would check out with their story...
Awkwardly phrased analogue for "salary potential"
It's expensive because the regulation is insane. In times and places with sane regulation, the upfront costs are still high but it soon pays for itself.
what happens to the wages of plumbers and electricians when 200 million people start retraining to be them?
My bet is the morality police will flag anything if it's uncomfortable and avoid interesting topics.

Personally: I find this appealing because my life went/is going nowhere, no friends, no love, no house (I will never be able to afford it), and health is a battle between inappropriate sinus tach (24/7 anxiety) and depression that no doctor has been able to resolve in 15+ years. I'm done. No more misery. I don't need help or "help" except how to make a graceful and dignified exit on my own terms. If other people can't deal with it, too bad: it's not their life or their body. I have no other forum to discuss this because it's taboo. I don't need lectures or unsolicited advice.
No, implying that I think that "they are worse at building and launching rockets because they drug test employees" when I never said that at all is not sound reasoning, it is terrible reasoning actually
> can't possibly

Nobody said he can't possibly be right about anything. That's an exaggeration so extreme as to be ridiculous.
This is already the bargain with intellectual property. What if you can get writing 50% as good as Stephen King? Doesn't matter, because the winner takes all and books are infinitely copyable. What if you can run a 400m in 80% of the world record time? Doesn't matter, because you'll only be paid a pittance. What if copilot can write code with only 50% more bugs than an engineer? Doesn't matter if each bug costs an average of tens of millions.

I don't think it's good vs bad, but quality vs volume. If your output is already able to be duplicated at low-to-zero cost then quality is important.
I’d say you’re flying Peruvian air in the 1970s
I think you're ignoring the work that went into this as well as the useful technology that came out. Prompts make or break interactions with LLMs and ChatGPT especially. The difference in output from a naive prompt and a well crafted one is huge. This paper is one of many explorations of what happens when you design such prompts to work in an iterative fashion building upon the previous conversation text to produce emergent behaviour. These are the seeds of the next programming paradigm on a completely novel architecture. It's incredibly exciting to be present for the beginning of this field, this is what mathematicians must have felt like when they helped design and program the first computers.
But here the issue is the uncorrected multiple testing and under-reporting of results, not the p-values themselves. Any criterion for judging the presence of an effect is going to suffer from the same issue, if researchers don't pre-register and report all of their analyses (since otherwise you have censored data, "researcher degrees of freedom," and so on). This is really a a problem with the design and reporting of studies, not the analysis method.
One neat thing is willful copyright infringement is basically a thing of the past. AI works can’t be protected by copyright so your default position now can be any copy you see online is public domain.
>Do go on about how it's "absolutely not trivial in the slightest", though.

It's not trivial because, as you note, past efforts WERE systematically destroyed by the automotive industry. Getting better public infrastructure is an advocacy problem, and the political environment needs to be supportive of such efforts.

Also, you may be referencing the streetcars systems used by many cities about 100 years ago, which were destroyed by the auto industry in favor of their buses. Now that electric buses exist, I would much rather live in a city with a fleet of electric buses than electric streetcars. Some US cities are even implementing the point-to-point-charging supercapacitor buses, which is even more sustainable.

>Biking takes less energy and fitness than walking does, even at a faster speed.

No argument there. I bike multiple times a week in a large US city, even during rush hour and traffic jams. More people should bike, especially because of the health benefits, and most US cities will benefit from better bike infrastructure. We can look to Amsterdam and other European places for good examples of bike transportation and storage infrastructure.

That said, biking in Amsterdam is very different than biking in much of the US. The Wikipedia article on Amsterdam says the average high over a year ranges between 43F - 72F. What an ideal climate for biking; no wonder so many people there bike. I've biked in traffic in snowstorms in one of the most bike-friendly cities in the US, and I was usually the only person out there. People just don't like to bike in the cold and extreme heat. People just don't like to be out in the cold and extreme heat in general, which is why personal vehicles are so appealing in those places.
[Replying to my own comment]

There is a sibling comment to this one which is flagged and "dead". It was inflammatory in tone but something I would vouch for in substance. My advice to its author is to not give censcorious people an excuse to mob away your views. Avoid the hyperbole.

Greenpeace, for one reason or another, has been obsessed with nuclear power to the objective net detriment of the environment. Their activism has directly resulted in a strengthening of legacy fossil fuel industries and the increased reliance on fossil fuel consumption. Absent the campaigning by Greenpeace there would certainly be more, newer, safer nuclear energy reactors in Europe today. This would directly result in offsetting need for coal power — especially if Greenpeace had applied as much effort to opposing coal as they did nuclear power.
Logical fallacies undermine the argument of the person using them.

How can it be a fallacy and useful information?
> What if you can run a 400m in 80% of the world record time?

congratulations, you are now the new world record holder ;)
I've really cut down on casually swinging into town to meet someone or do an activity on a weeknight because it's just a hassle to drive with all the traffic and driving back home when I'm probably getting a bit tired.

This sounds like age, more than anything. Your energy levels fall, and you tell yourself "next time". In reality, next time comes less and less.
The lack of a perfect human is a good reason not to produce ultra-humans who have 1000x higher IQ, are networked to every system on the planet, have access to all of humankind's knowledge, and don't need to eat, sleep, or die.
So ironically this link is to old.reddit.com, feast your eyes as that is being sunset. So is the compact view.

Even more details in their 2023 product priorities thread:
https://www.reddit.com/r/reddit/comments/11l3td9/making_redd...

You don't actually need to read it, just look at it. This is the only way it will look going forward. Like Discord or some such.

I am not a redditor but find it useful for search results sometimes - this just feels unusable.
Your original post implicated both points (the two thoughts separated by the semicolon). But I suspect we would make more progress talking about why you think Hasan’s response isn’t clearly flawed.
They're good in "memory" reasoning but terrible in deductive reasoning. Like if you say there's a sign in front of a door saying "push" it will tell you you need to push the door, but if you say there was a powerful wind and you see a sign saying "pull" laying on the ground on the other side of a glass door it has no idea if you should push or pull.
The title is editorialized but why on earth was this even drafted? It's completely absurd.
As horrified as I am for people whose jobs will be lost (including mine, quite possibly), "content" is such a plague on humanity I'm glad it will soon be devalued into the ground. Moutains of useless tweets and blog posts will be rendered meaningless when ChatGPT has all the answers. Dust to dust.
My last two (severely low end) cars had a function that opened slightly one window when there was just one door open,for this reason... To allow the last door to close without excessive force.

On one of the cars it wasnt enabled from factory, but I asked the dealership and they enabled it at no cost.
So much content marketing is already churned out by contractors with zero domain knowledge. This doesn't surprise me much.

It's sad to see humans lose their jobs to automation. But (without knowing much about the details) if the company thinks they can automate what this person was doing with AI, it was kind of a bullshit job [1] to begin with.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs
> this is not a system that is designed to reason

For what it's worth, neither are we, really. Not disagreeing with anything you're saying, just musing.

> superhuman levels of reasoning

This one has always stumped me a bit though. I'm not quite sure what that looks like. Laplace's Demon?
I did see this today and it gives me hope.

https://www.reddit.com/r/WTF/comments/12hzfw1/bear_rider/
Or it could be 1 fake post in a sea of throw away accounts fabricating stories on reddit for fun and karma. Or maybe it's a real story and they really did give up writing and start driving for doordash over this. You decide.
>he’s a marketer who outsources the majority of his copy and content writing to me.

So is this like SEO content marketing? Without understanding the nature of the job, it's hard to know what conclusions to draw. If the most important part of the job was just "write something that will end up on the first page of Google search results", than I can totally believe ChatGPT can replace that. If it's something where the most important part is that the reader enjoy the piece, I'm a bit more skeptical. ChatGPT is good at a lot of things, but it doesn't really produce engaging writing very well.
Not to be confused with a great search engine for GitHub named https://grep.app/
wait until it starts training on its own output

and the spammers realise they can influence its output by producing more spam
FWIW, Harbor Freight has only relatively recently made a concerted effort to start selling higher quality stuff and to shirk the "only sells cheap junk" label. And even now, there's a lot of variance (in both price and quality) across their various brands. The Icon stuff is pretty good. Maybe not quite on par with Snap-On, but when you consider the price difference, probably a better "bang for your buck." But the Pittsburgh stuff is a few steps down the quality ladder. Some of the other newer brands they've rolled out (Quinn, etc.) I'm less sure about.
It wouldn't make sense for arithmetic, i agree. I was more thinking about other kinds of problems.
The g factor is predictive of performance in jobs and income though. Even in your own example, yes we could make a test that involves running and throwing, and yes it would be predictive of performance in various sports. One of the tests for aerobic capacity is called VO2max. It is a number with units mL/g/min. Like IQ, this is not the only factor but it does have predictive power.
Chatgpt plus subscription includes gpt4 access. At least via chat.
Most of our spelling is UK variant (aka King's English, haha) so I guess maybe French in a roundabout way
My VW van has a parasitic drain because it's a VW with shitty wiring.

The starter positive wire runs 4 m / 12 ft from the back to behind the passenger seat.

I had to completely redo the dash wiring because the entire thing was a corroded flex "PCB" like the inside of an Apple II or an Atari 2600.
The OP was referring to a 5 days a week, 50 weeks a year dystopia:

"Even if you don't want to live in your car that the pressure will still be exerted on you because you'll be competing with people that do."

Which is why so many folks are mocking the idea.
Interesting theory, but wouldn't Jaynes' definition of consciousness imply that animals are not conscious?
I feel like that only happens when X is a thing they're trying to promote, such as "I used to be a liberal but now they're too woke, so now I'm voting Trump."

But for this, there's no upside. They aren't promoting anything. In fact, they're withdrawing their promotion of something with no alternative. I guess I just don't get your point.

I think a lot of people believe humans are superior (currently, they are!), and genuinely are going to be blindsided by the fact that creativity isn't a uniquely human trait.
Twitter's ex-CEO cites DOJ probe in lawsuit seeking unpaid legal bills
Enabling developers can help drive financial inclusion
Regardless of what happens, I'm honestly just very curious to see how this all plays out, despite being nervous. What a time to be alive.

I do think that "replace coders with AI" poses a much more formidable challenge simply due to the fact that software typically requires deterministic output, especially for critical systems.
But what about Google penalizing generated content? It's an incredibly bold assumption to assume that this can continue. It's so thin and poor quality.
A slight improvement on fuckit.py
Humanities offers 'genre' as a solution to this problem. A test, we would say, might be more expected to seek formal proof based on self-contained assertions. As such, it is different to a conversation in the street.

This leaves the test author with a challenge of establishing genre as test rules-of-engagement.