skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
I accept much of your feedback. It seems the media has done a lot of twisting here.

Still remains to explain why adding level 1, level 2 and level 3 together and calling it consensus is not wildly misleading. They dont even define what a consensus is but it is implied that it means humans are the main contributing factor.

Here are the endorsement levels:

1. Explicit endorsement
with quantification.
Explicitly states that humans are the primary cause
of recent global warming

2. Explicit endorsement
without quantification
Explicitly states humans are causing global
warming or refers to anthropogenic global
warming/climate change as a known fact

3. Implicit endorsement Implies humans are causing global warming. E.g.,
research assumes greenhouse gas emissions cause
warming without explicitly stating humans are the
cause

As a reminder, they lumped all these together to produce the 97% number.

This is a 97% consensus that humans have a non-zero impact. It is NOT a 97% consensus that humans are the main contributing factor.

EDIT: The paper does not list the data for these endorsement levels so we cannot know the distribution.
Good to know that the temperature stays the same in my south facing living room, whether it is night or daytime... thanks.

We know very well, that the Sun goes through cycles, that it changes its level of radiation; and that even the most cursory glance at the stats of different planets, which are at different distances from the Sun, show the effects of solar radiation.
It will be interesting to see how ChatGPT interacts with BS jobs. Could go a lot of ways. One interesting scenario is if humans to finally accept that if you have a big population in a technologically advanced society, the demand for human labor is going to drop, while the supply increases. The only real jobs are those that require rare talent, on a power law dist. The best they can do is no negative contribution. NPCs just live, reproduce, and then see if their kids can do better. In general, this process will continue until ALL humans have BS jobs, or no jobs. So it's good to deal with it now.

Personally, I like the UBI idea.
People who will cheat the written portion of the hiring process already do so without automation, by plagiarizing others resume and cover letters or by farming out the work to someone else.
This seems like a pretty bad reason to want speed limits, because the thing you actually want to limit is fuel inefficiency. I think rules should normally try to achieve their goals through first-order effects rather than second order effects.

I don’t think wanting fuel efficiency is incompatible with getting rid of the speed limit rule.
This is not unregulated capitalism. This is crony capitalism or corruption. It is government regulation that allows a monopoly of large corporations to remain the powerful health insurance companies they are, and ObamaCare gave them even more power.

If this was a free, unregulated market, healthcare in the US would be cheaper.
But I don't think you get that, what you get is how Sam presents as thinking. Very, wildly different.
Interesting podcast, thanks for sharing. I wasn't aware of MusicLM yet and just downloaded the paper and listened to the various samples on https://google-research.github.io/seanet/musiclm/examples/. MuseNet still produces more credible pieces from my point of view (practicing musician/composer/producer for decades) than the models based on raw audio files (like MusicLM); the latter lack true musical concepts as you expect from a human composer, or it just sounds like you listen to more than one piece at the same time; it might be suited to impress non-musicians though. So there is still much room for improvement.
The Slate article says the points effect is modest but also that a few points make a big difference to college admissions at the selective schools.

I also question how the controlling is done. The control group does better seemingly from doing the test more. You'd think that's one of the things that shouldn't be controlled for. After all isn't it part of test prep?
It is possible to tune the model, and I suspect that remains something that is done on a regular basis.

https://platform.openai.com/docs/guides/fine-tuning

In particular from https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-3

> With the release of gpt-3.5-turbo, some of our models are now being continually updated. In order to mitigate the chance of model changes affecting our users in an unexpected way, we also offer model versions that will stay static for 3 month periods. With the new cadence of model updates, we are also giving people the ability to contribute evals to help us improve the model for different use cases. If you are interested, check out the OpenAI Evals repository.

The feedback wouldn't be immediately injected back into the model (human curation of the responses is needed to see if the feedback is appropriate).

Some of the feedback would be used to train the moderation / supervisor model. https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/moderation
> most states suspending a teacher's license if they quit mid-year, leaving apathetic teachers trapped in bad schools

Imagine if Apple made you sign a non-compete to the effect of "I agree to never quit between August and June, with the punishment if I do being that I'm no longer allowed to develop software for anyone." That'd basically be indentured servitude and wouldn't last a minute in court. So why do we let public schools get away with it?
Happened to me over 10 years ago - rejection letter had this extra sentence at the end: "In addition, I really love your cover letter". The company back then had about 1000 employees, but it was for a position in a remote office which was probably very small.

Regarding "are they stupid enough to actually believe it" - I don't know, but what do people usually write in cover letters? When I wrote it - it was basically CV, just in text form instead of bullet points. But then _lying_ in cover letter is basically the same as lying on CV, no? Or, if companies tend to believe CVs, I would expect them to at least _pretend_ to believe cover letters, too.
Yes, society will "adapt", by exacerbating inequality. Massive amounts of resources will be wasted on ideas like "add 2 feet of gravel and pave it again" to allow the super rich to keep their properties for a few years longer, and the only actual workable solution (building new sustainable homes and allowing people to relocate to them for free) will be ignored.
I think it's a form of parasocial relationship. It's like you are "conversing" with someone who has the exact same tastes as you, which is kind of hard to come by in real life.
I mean, I don't want to say "start shooting them until they get the message that we won't put up with their bullshit", but I honestly can't think of a better plan given that people will find all sorts of excuses to keep voting for the kinds of assholes who prefer it this way.

I'd really like to hear one, cause the violence option isn't really very appealing.
Putin says Russia will station tactical nukes in Belarus
I don't think you understand. They only have to make case for "their end" to not apply to the specific case, and it's okay. Same as firing someone for incompetence because you suspect them of theft. Realize, an employer has this option always. Why bother "playing the game".

> [...]you can't fire someone or deny coverage based on reasons that can be contested. It's not fraud if you fire them for some other reason. It's not fraud if you don't even know why you denied coverage.
I was very disappointed in Bard. For most complex coding tasks it returns: “I am a language model…” and doesn’t perform the task.

I’m not sure why anyone would use Bard at this point.
Most decent apps will allow you to speed up. Try dialing it up until you hit your personal maximum transmission rate.
Sounds absurd with him mentioning saudi arabia. We have bases there. If they aligned against us it would be no brainer to take them and their oil over.

I think it would take about a week for the US military to pull that off.
It's everywhere. A couple of examples:

Native advertising in the media.

Mass produced foods and products pretending to be artisan.
I would say upper to middle-upper class.
Yes, all the projects that you were hoping to be able to work on as a reward are out of reach because you're too valuable to the ones you're on.
> I just need a job, why do you care if I’m passionate about building CRUD apps for you?

Because people that lack passion for their work cut corners to avoid doing it.
Isn’t Europe evidence of the answer to this question?
I'm glad to see he calls out thin soldermask. This is the bane of my existence with every single PCB manufacturer--even the expensive ones.

I have had innumerable problems because the soldermask doesn't mask. If you have some big pad (QFN, DPAK, etc.) and you route a line requiring soldermask isolation next to it you can expect to have some percentage of the boards fail. It's infuriating, but at this point I just have to assume that it simply will happen and design around it.
You went from '200k a year' to '200k over five years'.
I would not be inclined to use AI for this sort of thing, but it's a two-way street. but I can think of many hours spent writing carefully crafted introductory letters only to receive a form letter or nothing at all in return.

In the context of job applications, think how many recruitment ads are just a collection of buzzwords and happy talk, while omitting crucial information like pay etc. HR departments are notorious for their low quality of communication.
> Constitutional lawyers-- how is this not discrimination

You’re going to have to ask one of those “living Constitution” folks to explain how that’s not discrimination.
There's already some nasal sprays around that supposedly protect against Covid-19 in a similar way. However many places online just echo the copy from the manufacturers about the efficiency. Has anyone tried those sprays and can share their experience?
Oh scoping wouldn’t be so bad. You’re on the hook for getting it done. That’s the hard part!
Tesla and the Dojo architecture is another interesting one - that's another Jim Keller project and frankly Dojo may be a little underappreciated given how everything Keller touches tends to turn into gold.

https://www.nextplatform.com/2022/08/23/inside-teslas-innova...

Much like Google, I think Tesla realized this is a capability they need, and at the scales they expect to operate, it's cheaper than buying a whole bunch of NVIDIA product.
They have been going pretty much everywhere with their CUDA runtime. LLMs was a random hit.

At the same time, it doesn't seem like a great moat - I think AMD should be to able compete pretty well soon. I think TSMC/Samsung/ASML will capture quite a lot of the profit in the boom to come.
Do you have any studies showing the opposite?
That taxation system already exists for jet fuel. Nothing new needs to be added.
Let us ignore medical malpractice (including unapproved vaccine), non-vehicular accidents, abortions, and the other inconvenient truths as well.

Sometime a narrative is needed to carry its myopic points across.
I've had that same thought. How far away are we from true "video on demand"

- Show me the second season of Firefly, set after the events of Serenity
- Remake Flash Gordon in the style of John Carpenter, with Roddy Piper as Flash
- Create a 6 part mini-series, a modern day retelling of Seven Samurai, in 2050 Tokyo underworld, with Hiroyuki Sanada and Ken Watanabe
- I'm too busy to read this obscure book from project gutenberg, make a movie of it for me
- Here's a one-pager I wrote, give me a trailer for it with Keanu Reeves as the main star
We will finally have a semantic web, but not Web 3.0 (RDF/OWL/etc)... instead, a regurgitated version of the Internet created by LLMs.
griftGPT
> Do people really have the time to listen to all of them?

Yes! People really do have time to do all sorts of long attention span things. Podcasts for me are a mostly-downtime activity. They fall into the same category of activity as chilling on the couch with a good book. But the advantage is I can be doing something else while I’m listening - like driving, cooking, drawing or going for a walk.

You have just as many hours in your week as I do. We all need some downtime from time to time. I think podcasts are a delightful option. (If you find the right ones!)
More:

- https://www.pandemblock.com/products

- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-37290-6

Q: how would this be to take, if it's ever human certified? Are there similar nasal immunity products, using similar molecular mechanisms?
Sucks being dependable.
"as far as we know" -- they're famous though for trotting out the Blackbird and setting a new public speed record just exceeding whatever the Soviets had previously advertised.
It seems pretty obvious. The ones most willing to do the work end up doing it.
> YMMV

it certainly does. i have worked for several investment banks as a contractor, and i can assure you they do not much care how many hours you put in. if you wanted a big bonus (as a contractor, i obviously didn't get one) you had to produce value to the bank. and sitting at your desk until 7pm simply does not do that - actually it costs them money; you probably have no idea what the costs of air conditioning are in the city of london.

also, how much does that 2 hours per day, per year, over 5 years add up to?
> And what do we do with our ideas when they arise? Well, we scroll to the bottom of the document and jot them down, copy and paste them, rearrange them, and hope we'll remember to come back to them.

I write erotic novels as a hobby. I legit thought no one else does this (putting random unorganized ideas at the bottom of the document). I am genuinely pleased to know I am not the only one.
"people here" is tens of thousands of users or more. You are bound to find a large number who dislike any major public figure, just by statistical chance alone.

It is kinda dull but it seems to work for him given how successful it is. Just goes to show how our tastes are not aligned with the large audience he amassed. Oprah is boring to me, but evidently not to millions of Americans.
Forgot HN doesn't have a DM feature. Just use code "beta"!
A more effective cure: pay for overtime.
Hang on, we’ve also changed the definition of AGI, now this thing is increasingly “marketed” as an AGI, and as someone has used it, I don’t want it anywhere near critical decision making.

There is marketing and there’s reality. Don’t conflate the two.

There is untold money which has been spent on these systems. They’re going to be pushed into our lives whether we like it or not. That’s not to say there is no value in machine learning, but there also a lot of money to be made from it.

Think opioid crisis, you had it prescribed even if it wasn’t in your interest.

This is America…
Cover letters are for those that send in applications.

Successful people network instead; don´t be part of the PDF pile, work around it!
I work for a small company, and I do believe loyalty is rewarded here. Raises, bonuses, freedom to move between projects, etc.

I’m sure it’s a different story when you’re working with an army of devs. It’s a numbers game, everyone is easier to replace in that situation.
This is valuable advice, OP. Definitely suggest doing these things.
There's basically zero funding toward it right now, so the second part becomes pretty easy.

If we wanted to massively fund air cleaning, which I'm in favor of doing, we should use a tax as funding from day one.
>Dr. McCullough has been recommending people use diluted povodone iodide solution for a couple years already

As a nasal spray? The wikipedia article describes it as being primarily used on skin. Is it safe to spray that into your nose?
Applicants don’t want to write them, hiring managers don’t want to read them. Applicants want to signal and hiring managers want to be signaled.

I really hope AI cover letters finally put an end to this nonsense.
You are exactly right. Certainly there can still be some criteria upon which the sorting of leader, alphas, follows from.

There is some heuristic which may avoid having to fight it out all the time, but this does not disprove that an alpha exists based on being more fit/dominant/strong/intelligent whatever, even fighting ability! Maybe age, or strength, or assertive personality, etc..all are proxies or different permutations for "fitness" which combine to promote some alpha above the rest. The general point here is that there still can be a hierarchy.

As I said in another comment[0] all of this is propaganda to muddle reality and disprove hierarchies, to re-assert egalitarianism/equality as dominant political ideology.

And a previous comment from yesterday seems applicable[1]... that constant fights don't need to occur to be able to identify and reward alphas even for fighting ability or other proxies of fitness, strength, capability etc shouldn't be surprising.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35308341

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35299569
Subjective Effect Index: Catalog of psychoactive experiences
There is an initial commit for ane support from yesterday. That means it's likely a long way off being deployed to asahi-edge.
wish there was a follow up discussion about those ideas instead of a context change. And yes, Altman has tweeted something similar before:

> haven’t seen this as a twitter thread, so: what true thing do you believe that few people agree with you on?

> absolute equivalence of brahman and atman

https://twitter.com/sama/status/1607482407770554373
I don’t listen to this particular podcast, but I do follow a few.

You don’t just… sit there and listen. (At least I don’t). Slap on some headphones and go for a walk, do household errands, etc. Put it on the background during your commute. Some folks have it on the background while they work, like people have done with radio shows for decades.
> Taking 5M for each, you get $234T USD.

Yep, it sure sounds like a lot. Maybe a bit too high, but I'll note your argument was that its too much, not that it is an injustice to others.

I wonder how much of the $145T total wealth[0] in the US, or $463T in the world, would be owned by the 46.8 million people in event that their ancestors hadn't been enslaved, had their culture and homes forcibly removed or destroyed, or lost generations of social configuration through slavery, disenfranchisement, and Jim Crow.

Pretty large moral quandary, knowing most Americans (and, to be fair, most people in the world) have their wealth and security built not by their personal ingenuity but by the exploitation of the labor of others. Maybe not quite as distressful as confronting the Absurd, but still pretty big.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_wea...
Awesome! You can use 'beta' as a coupon code to make it free. Thank you for checking it out!
Flat management structure with small autonomous collaborating teams.
Ok, so according to Google Ngram Viewer there is a bunch of widely unknown romantic novels about werewolves that mention alpha werewolves. And according to TV Tropes there is fanfiction that constructs elaborate hierarchies with all sorts of castes including Psi and Chi. That's hardly "the enormous representation." Well, at least now kids who learn biology by reading Omegaverse fiction can unlearn horrible misrepresentations they were led to believe in!
That's good of course. I'd also like to suggest you promise to release the code under an open source license should you cease operations.
I do that with video tutorials and it sometimes make me feel like Johnny No 5.
It works for everyone, due to conservation of mass and conservation of energy
This image is even more worthless than it seems. The post on Wikimedia is an original work. Its description states: "As the percentage of graduates increases the minimum IQ to include at least that percentage of graduates inherently decreases. Since 2000 the intelligence required to be a college graduate has been less than the intelligence required to graduate from high school in 1940, based on a standard distribution."

It seems the author took the the percentage of the population that graduated high school/college each year and then found the corresponding percentile on an IQ bell curve and used those as the y-values. This methodology only makes sense if you assume that high school/college graduates are exactly the highest IQ population and that everyone who does not graduate isn't intelligent enough to do so. This chart also almost certainly doesn't normalize IQ over time, even though IQ is constantly redefined so that 100 is average while raw intelligence scores have increased over time [1].

What this chart actually shows is the highest possible IQ of the graduate with the lowest IQ in a given year, a statistic that seems to have dubious value.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect
Because channelling his interest and talent where it can be fostered by experts in the field is much better that villifying him on the internet for 15 minutes of headline clicks.

It's uncommon these days to think of what is best for someone else, especially when they are the "bad guy" in a news story, but give it a try.
> the utility of unions

I admit this was a blindspot for me, and it was mostly a representation problem. simply put, all the examples I had were blue collar jobs, paying a cut of their lesser (but union inflated) salary to a union organization they had issues with.

I saw high profile futility. Union tried to negotiate something expensive, the company collapsed and laid off the entire town. People marching in a circle for 3 months in one city, against a multinational corporation that shouldn't really need to care. The people forming unions making demands that didn't seem ambitious enough.

I felt I was optimizing my salary, based on the current reality. But I've come to a different view, mostly that others in the working class are pitted against each other. Like, other workers are dismissive to highly compensated employees because of the numbers involved. But this is only beneficial to the executives, board and owners. I'm dismayed at how this sounds like a marxist handbook, instead of looking at how other developed nations do it. I've been inspired by codetermination in Germany, where the unions has like half of the board seats by law. Its like that perspective is completely missing in the US, in favor of false dilemmas trying to avoid marxist leanings.

I think more education on this topic is beneficial. People react to what they see.
I haven't come across any experienced software engineer who actually sees AI as a threat to their job. Maybe there will be a point when ChatGPT (or whoever else) can actually write better code than me, but I'd actually welcome that. Writing code is the most insignificant part of my job, and automating it away would leave more time for everything else, the stuff I actually get paid for. And in the worse case everyone will just switch to coding AI bots (because someone still needs to do that).
Our two closest relatives are the chimpanzee and Bonobo.

The Bonobo is far more interesting. They have a dynamic society, where sometimes it's matriarchal or more balanced. The wiki article is a fascinating read:

> Although a male bonobo is dominant to a female in a dyadic interaction,[46] depending on the community, socially-bonded females may be co-dominant with males[47] or dominant over them, even to the extent that females can coerce reluctant males into mating with them.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bonobo

Personally I think humans are far closer to Bonobos than chimps in our societal structure. We should allow more dynamic structures to arise, and have more sex along the way.
My impression of the target audience of podcasts are people who are stuck in traffic for 2-3 hours a day, which is why so many podcasts are that long.
If one applies your approach, a superior parsing is that they were noting parent comments claims of NPR's bias towards liberal, democratic values, rather than making a slight or firm argument outright.