skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
It's already replacing junior programmers.

Seniors etc will see their wages slashed through labour competition.

App and website clones will abound.

It won't replace programmers entirely, although it will diminish numbers significantly.
> If this is not true, then most people will only bank with the largest banks. That's not a good situation.

It is an elite class of people who banked at SVB. Most people bank with less risk-taking community banks or the very large ones.

Casting SVB as an underdog and the people who bank with them as helpless is upside down.
OW OW OW
Well, with AI's ability to complete more tasks companies will get smaller anyway. No programmers means there isn't a need for managers for those programmers. It means there aren't separate teams with different priorities. Someone "at the top" will speak to the computer, the change will be implemented and taken care of automatically. There will be no organizational politics to navigate.
Maybe you don't know that there's already a state named Punjab with Sikh majority population. Khalistanis wants to create a separate country with Sikh majority.
That "expert" is wrong (or does not really understands how animal metabolism work).

Humans that live in the reality can easily grasp than being clubbed to death will be more painful than going sleep and dying for hypothermia.
You can have good public healthcare without the need of the notion of 'claims'. The Scandinavian healthcare system is a good example (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_Denmark).
> What about stick drift when the potentiometers starts wearing?

Throw it away and replace before it becomes an issue ?
Yeah I understand what you're saying eg. websites now are MB's in size.

Maybe I missed the point of this article "revive".

edit: another random anecdote, I bought a palm top that was released in the late 90's and while it's cool/nostalgia, that's another example of a pretty much useless thing in today's needs/software-hardware compatibility

idk, I hoard a lot of my old phones... I feel bad just discarding them since they still work... but what are you going to use them for, maybe wire them up and try to use them as a cluster idk.
> His claim was just one of roughly 60,000 that Dopke denied in a single month last year

60,000 / 20 workdays in a month / 8 hours in a workday => this guy rejected about 375 claims per hour, on average. Over six claims a minute. He spent less than 10 seconds on each claim, for a full month of work time.
You Do Not Have a Shoe Size
In the complaint we can see she tested at just 18 nanograms. Utterly negligent.

> No one explained the details of the test results to Kaitlin at the time, but Kaitlin later learned that the second test conducted on her urine sample reported a finding of 18 nanograms of codeine per milliliter of the sample (18 ng/mL). The laboratory testing Kaitlin’s sample employed a cutoff of 10 ng/mL to determine whether a sample was positive for codeine, a testing cutoff level that is dramatically lower than recommended in Federal guidelines.

https://www.aclu-nj.org/sites/default/files/field_documents/...
> I thought this was an AI to solve this optimization problem.

Lots of people are working on this problem, but an LLM is probably the wrong tool for the job.
Thankfully this one is alphabetical but imagine if the bot got a "equal contribution" asterisk by their name and you didn't get one!
That image lacks an obvious source or any explanation for methods of how the data was gathered and I can find no record of a study or context that corresponds to this image.

What I can find is a wikimedia entry with the image but no attribution except the "US Census" and no actual link to any publication put out by the Census Bureau. The archive link goes to a page that does not actually contain this graphic, or the data necessary to generate it, making it a bit suspect to begin with.

The census also don't systematically collect IQ scores or themselves administer IQ tests, making the details, data, and methodology of any study they produce paramount to interpreting this barebones graph. The title of the graph itself is borderline ridiculous, awkwardly stated at best and downright deceptive:

IQ tests are not a requirement for graduating college, and taking them at all is relatively uncommon these days.

As it stands, this image is worthless without context, and that context is oddly elusive except for an anonymous wikimedia post that did not cite the source with any specificity required to authenticate it.
That assumes that the end-user know what they want, which is seldom the case.
In theory, other measures of student achievement: grades, extracurricular activities, personal statements, letters of recommendation. GPA by itself isn't terrible for this, though pairing it with test scores is an improvement over both it by itself and test scores by themselves for prediction of academic success in college.

In practice: things that satisfy ideological goals and maximize fundraising outlook for the institution.
Statistically significant, but slight (~25% increased risk, on average.) Still not great.

Obviously, copper IUDs are an alternative for many, though they have their downsides. One of the big uses of hormonal contraception is managing heavy periods, PMDD and other medical conditions. I had a friend who would throw up for days every time she was on her period. It went away pretty completely on birth control.
What? Wolves have massively more powerful bites than dogs, right?
Elsewhere in this discussion thread there's a few examples from im3w1l who saw this problem too:

> Like it could have mentioned jobs numbers but it didn't. It could have mentioned covid hospitalization statistics but it didn't etc
> They are looking to become CEOs, judges, politicians, etc.

Yeah, and their degrees don't matter to get those jobs either.
I mean of course it matters, but it's still the same degree they could get elsewhere.

The network of well connected powerful people they meet at Harvard is what enables them to become CEOs, judges, politicians, etc.
I'm training a 65B model right now, also I believe you can use lora-alpaca to train on this data on a much smaller machine.
I don’t claim it isn’t real. What I claim is that people like to throw around random made up facts involving IQ to make their arguments seem science-y and that they ought not to.
> The researchers also note that although these findings provide evidence about the short-term associations between hormonal contraceptives and breast cancer risk, they do not provide information regarding longer-term associations, or the impact of total duration of contraceptive use on breast cancer risk, since information on a woman’s prescription record prior to joining a participating GP practice would not have been available within the CPRD database.
nice! maybe I can be a lion tamer next
The Supreme Court has gotten way more libertarian recently.
Has anyone tried to ask GPT to review an investment Portfolio and suggest areas of concern and/or improvements?

Personally as a noob to investing, this would be incredible. Obviously GPT can make stuff up but still.
Haha, are you calling me garbage? To be honest, that is prob half the problem! Trying to tell ChatGPT to be your therapist, but you don't like the generic answers it is giving but you also don't know whats wrong/what you need to do, does make it a little tricky.

But I am curious about this, is it the case that ChatGPT's training is too generic or is it just a case that most problems are fairly simple and we already know the answers? Not talking about technical things here obviously, more to do with our mental health / self improvement.
I guess we can put Moore's law to it's final rest beside him.
This going to be a revolution among fanfic writers and indie authors, where "bulk writing assistance" is exactly what they need to avoid burnout.

Now we just need finetuning/embeddings... Something where we can, say, feed it canon and the top 200 AO3 stories in a certain category/style, so it can get a good grasp of a fictional world without having to prod it so much.
If so, they'll call us "technical analysts" or similar, as I've yet to work at a company where the PMs and UX people full understand the logic of what they are trying to make. "Programmers" seem to fill this gap mostly.
I think this is also the case for salmon? First time I had wild salmon at home, I was... rather surprised by the number of parasites on it.

It really is impressive how well farmed meat does at keeping that out. I don't think many of us have any sort of intuition for just how parasite ridden food was even a half century ago.
It is amazing how these models are just not limited to step by step work but also can output better strategic decisions than many humans. It certainly seems more objective.
Yeah the license issue is the only reason why I didn't release the weights yet.
This happens more often than I'd like to admit. More often it's on work chat or a call, but the principle holds: I try to explain my problem to someone else and while deepening the explanation, I get a face-palm moment (the answer was there all along!), thank the person for its time and franticly start working on the solution.

Rubber ducking can be a highly productive measure when your mentally clouded and can take many forms.
Actually, that's a damn good idea. Have a urine test hanging over your head? Eat some poppy bagels.

So if you get flagged then you have plausible deniability.
That's about right for the US, too. Once a country is developed, the amount of steel in active use seems to be roughly constant. It's easy to extract from trash and recycling. That's how Nucor, which is mostly a recycler, became the US's largest steel company. (15th in the world, though. The top 14 are in China, Japan, S. Korea, and India. Except for ArcelorMittal, which is nominally in Luxembourg but is a holding company which buys up old steel mills and restarts them.)
I agree that much of their use of "holistic" factors is simple discrimination and should be illegal, but considering other non-academic factors (arguably including character) seems reasonable, if not necessary, given the intent of these schools to build future leaders in various fields.

Quantitative measures can only give you so much information about a student. GPA is questionably useful past a point, where it starts to have more to do with grade inflation and gaming the system than differences in hard work or ability.

That leaves the SAT, which is far more of a level playing field than things like extracurriculars or "personal statements" that also end up reflecting your social class and ability to play the admissions game more than ability. Yet admitting students based solely on a single standardized test seems to disincentivize working hard at other pursuits that may actually bring more to the classroom than slightly higher test scores.
wilderness?

there's no wilderness... it's all somebody's backyard.
For that matter, which banks are likely to be in a precarious financial position over the next one to two years and why? Even singling out SVB is doing a lot of heavy lifting. Once you know what to look for, it's a lot easier to find it.
Factory farming is not a problem at all
Recently my spouse and I both obtained new passports for partly this exact reason. As two married men, we don’t think it’s as laughable an idea as it used to be to be prepared to leave the US.
Who's going to spend millions (or billions) of dollars developing better supersonic technology when one of the most important markets is off-limits?

Militaries, for one. But that doesn't mean supersonic flight is completely off limits to passenger flight. There used to be regular flights across the Atlantic at supersonic speeds operated by Air France and British Airways. The last one was in 2003. Did the Concorde program fail because they couldn't fly over the CONUS?
"big enough to reach the ground" ?
(1) Find someone you can pester with questions. (2) Understand the basic workflow. (3) Start by copying and modifying existing designs. (4) Build solutions using functional modules, and version these. (5) Bench test everything. (6) Be aware of startup and edge conditions when designing. (7) Take notes on all design changes or prospective changes, hypotheses and findings. This process will greatly accelerate your learning. This is easier if you have LXI-capable equipment and can capture test information easily. https://github.com/lxi-tools/lxi-tools
Carbon tax != carbon credits. Carbon credits are part of emission trading approach. Carbon tax doesn't need credits cause uses money. Not being cheatable is one of the advantages of carbon tax.
Moore's Law Changed Our Lives: RIP Gordon Moore
You realize they're in the middle of Cambridge, MA, right? It's not like there's a bunch of empty land around the campus to just make the school bigger.

Acquiring non-Harvard land in Allston met with some backlash owing to how they went about it (sneakily, to avoid getting put over a barrel on price).

Building up rather than out would require knocking down buildings that range from historic to merely very old.

Suggesting that Harvard should just take more students as the number of applicants grows sort of ignores the constraints they operate under.

Non-affiliated former Boston resident.
Yeah, it's not like people change existing software.

New features, bug fixes, etc. Who does that? Just input all the exist code in the prompt and have the AI do whatever is needed.
In my head, I call myself batman.

I do not know yet, if that helps. But it should stop me from doing nonsense.
I'm glad Lex chose to spend half of it discussing Jordan Peterson and Elon Musk.

Also as great and useful as the LLMs are, it's still a bit of a leap to claim it's getting us that much closer to AGI. GPT does a great job compressing and distilling the knowledge found in text on the internet but it still doesn't have the ability to do real reasoning. As a simple example I recommend trying to have it multiply two large numbers, it does a decent job guestimating but obviously can't do the recursive steps required to generate a correct answer.

EDIT: Also people worried about AGI implications should slow down and worry what humans and society will do with tools that can automate a large portion of our jobs and accrue all of the gains of that to a few well capitalized players.
> “If they have one or two older individuals, they are more likely to win—which was not what we’d expected to find.”

This doesn't sound that crazy; maybe the ones able to live that are the ones in packs that are strong enough to win all the time.
Jail the executives.
I really enjoyed Gary Gensler lectures on blockchain, crypto currency and money in general and I still recommend them to anyone who wants to learn the fundamentals.

https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/15-s12-blockchain-and-money-fall...

When I heard he was going to lead SEC I was very optimistic about the future of crypto and its regulation as Gensler seemed to have a very favorable view of (at least) Bitcoin.

How naive...
Ehhhhh, not always:

https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2022/11/poppy-seeds-not-meant...
Microsoft’s Activision deal – here’s how cloud gaming will benefit
I genuinely think every health insurance denial should have to come from a named doctor at the health insurance company who is personally and professionally liable for the health outcomes from a denial.

Deny someone life-saving care without a sound medical reason? That’s a malpractice lawsuit and a potential loss of their medical license.
According to a professor I know, the average quality/preparedness of students has dropped with the removal of the SAT where he teaches. A high SAT score was never going to get you accepted to a good school, but a low SAT score used to get you rejected. Removing that filter makes room for less objective measures (I know the SAT isn't particularly objective either) to get more weight.
There is a myth of the myth of the alpha wolf. Onсe in several years a media outlet deсides to tell people about "the myth of the alpha wolf" that people supposedly believe in. And it never makes sense beсause few to no people believe in or care about "alpha wolves". A cursory search on Google and Reddit reveals that most people who talk about alpha wolves either talk about a metalcore band or present a yet another article that "dispels" the "myth" of the alpha wolf. Sometimes an article proclaims to speak about "the myth of the alpha male", but it always turns out to be a bait-and-switch for an article that talks about "the myth of the alpha wolf".
PS5 and Xbox S have hall effect sensors by default now.

The Switch Joycons had lots of drift from the less durable potentiometers. There was an article about 3rd Party hall effect upgrades to Joycons here:
https://gizmodo.com/gulikit-hall-effect-stick-nintendo-switc...

------

Hall effect sensors are fundamentally just cheap, but highly accurate, magnetic sensors. They are used for compasses inside of cars and such.

But with today's technology, hall effect sensors can very precisely determine the positioning of magnets. So place a magnet inside of a joystick, and bam, hall effect sensors can triangulate the position.

-------

The older potentiometer based method is just a variable resistor + brush. As you move it around, the brush changes the resistance of the erm.... resistor. But this brush eventually wears out the internal parts from hundreds of thousands of movements (and video gamers can hit that kind of usage in practice)

Because the magnets + hall effect sensor has no brush, we no longer have to worry about the brush rubbing + wearing out the internals.
Because it isn’t a currency. Get back to me when we can agree that “I’m buying if you’re flying”.

You might be able to simulate a currency, but that does not make it so.
Butterfly flaps its wings, a thespian/producer goes off/on cocaine, New {studio_criteria} => {new_prompt} => screenplay_blessed_rev4b.txt

Honestly I'd be worried once these people figure out how to edit your work without your talent. Is there a place HNers can contact you btw?
Yes, commit message is also a good place to provide the context for the commit.
Well, one test if it is causing nevative impacts in other parts of your life.
ChatGPT is the new spreadsheet. I see plenty of work to replace and maintain the Rube Goldberg machines people create.
The real punchline is that the Harvard dean initially believed the memo was genuine, that an associate director of admissions had written it as a parody of Harvard’s own practices.
Airport security and this are strongly parallel. Both a kind of theater. Nobody believes it but we're all forced to play along.
Hmm. The meditation lineage I come from would suggest that identifying myself with external names is more counter productive than productive. Like most things I guess it depends how you do it and whether you get addicted to it.
That what is said yes.
The Asian in the joke was practically superhuman, nothing was made at the "expense" of Asians. The joke was explicitly mocking Harvard's obvious discrimination against Asian applicants.
> though hundreds of thousands died of starvation and exposure in 1946/47

"More than nine million Germans died as a result of Allied
starvation and expulsion policies in the first five years after
the Second World War-a total far in excess of the figures
actually reported."

-- "Crimes & Mercies" by James Bacque

The book is controversial, but you should be aware of it.

> I'm not sure how that jives with your whole free market thing

The free market thing started around 1950.

> Germany in the fifties wasn't the libertarian utopia you make it out to be, so that's probably why people died

The deaths were before 1950. As for libertarian utopia, I never said that. I said it was the free market that enabled Germany to rise from utter devastation to be the dominant economic power in Europe in just 20 years.

As for Dresden, it was a civilian target, not an industrial one. The US usually targeted industry. It also did not participate in the German Miracle, because it was in the Soviet sector.

Lastly, the German bombing of England was concentrated on London civilian targets, not industrial targets, and it didn't impact infrastructure and industry much. The Luftwaffe also could only reach a small fraction of England, most of the industry was safely out of range. The British went hungry during the war, but they didn't starve.

For reference, the series of Impact books gives a good overview of the effect of the bombing campaigns on Germany and Japan.

https://www.amazon.com/Impact-Forces-Confidential-Picture-Hi...

More:

"Bomber Harris and the Strategic Bombing Offensive" by Charles Messenger

"Gruesome Harvest" by Ralph Franklin Keeling

"Maximum Effort the B-29s against Japan" by Kevin Herbert

"Target Germany" US Army Air Force

A bit of caution: these are not nice books.
probably close to zero?

There’s considerable debate over whether even China’s “One Child” policy had any direct effect or it just happened to coincide with a natural decline in birth rates that would’ve happened in China regardless.

If it’s not even clear that an incredibly blunt government policy had that much of a direct effect, I’m not sure what research could possibly turn up for other nations.
The price has gone up a lot since then. I hear it's now over $10 million for a seat, possibly as high as $50 million.
Humans have one of the most deadly bites too. Just because something is dangerous, it’s tempting to shun it. But the danger is relative to the frequency of problems.

(If this is a “citation needed” situation: https://www.mayoclinic.org/first-aid/first-aid-human-bites/b...)
This is exactly what I came here to say. Yes, GPT-4 may happen to give a correct answer. But what happens when it's wrong? And how would you know it's wrong without a specific background in some topic?
>Obviously GPT can make stuff up but still.

Do you honestly think GPT is going to do a "better" (whatever that means) job than running scenarios with any of the many portfolio analysis tools out there? Particularly given it's a black box so you really can't trust what it tells you?
Why on earth would you trust that? OpenAI isn't releasing any technical details of how GPT-4 works. There may be some part of the model trained on pre-2022 data only, but there may be fine-tuning on later data.
(Prompt engineering is a powerful technique with humans as well as LLMs!)
Most of the effort that went into making humanity's data structured, searchable, semantic, and linkable on the open Web has been violently unwound in the past decade or so. Now, huge amounts of data are stashed behind some social networking app's login screen, often as lossy JPEG screenshots of text. No wonder Google no longer seems to work.

You can't link it or share it except inside some proprietary system. You have no say in where it's stored. Don't worry your little head about all that.

The world today is the nightmare scenario of a Slashdot nerd from the early 2000's, and we sleepwalked right into it.
True, but 28 years ago they were reintroduced into Yellowstone. https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRv5NTNU/
All you did is restate the same dichotomy. Complex systems in the real-world are almost always too complex for such a simplistic take.

For example, just enabling additional supply can create second order effects in terms of perverse incentives to overproduce creating all sorts of knock-on effects. We can stimulate the supply of corn and end up with distorted food markets and high-fructose corn syrup as a near-ubiquitous food additive. All I’m saying is we need to be mindful of these systemic effects and creating a false dichotomy tends to turn a blind eye towards them.
I mean, I have no doubt there is some regulatory capture going on here. That said, this is also the kind of regulation that was written in lives lost. Wild game can be done safely, sure. But typically not at large, and best to let the folks taking the risk be the ones eating it. That is, it works now because there is no incentive to just at mass capture any feral/wild animal that you can, butcher it, and sell it. As soon as that incentive does exist, expect lots of problems.
--goal "Global Thermonuclear War"