skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
You can even say they are now in their "Attitude" Era.
Kids hanging out with classmates on Discord instead of in person certainly leads to a reduction in teen pregnancy
I get the feeling they're asking why can't management estimate for me based on current velocity.
Thank you for the feedback! Looks like I'm going to subscribe to plus then.
As someone who’s used macOS since the early betas I really don’t understand this perpetual meme that the early versions were so good and it’s all locked-down rubbish now. Seems more like faulty memory mixed with a general tendency to think that everything was better ‘back in my day’.

Every version had its bugs at release and were mostly fixed after a few point releases. If I recall, the only one that was fine from the start was 10.6 Snow Leopard, and that was only because 10.5 Leper was so bad.
China's navy is now bigger than the U.S. Navy.[1] Not as many large ships yet, but for South China Sea dominance, aircraft carrier task groups are not necessary.

[1] https://news.usni.org/2021/11/03/china-has-worlds-largest-na...
DVDs are great and I still buy them. Just the other day I wanted an award-winning movie and it cost $15 to rent online or $20 to buy.

The DVD was $3 for rent at Redbox and $1 more to keep the disc. Free to loan to friends and no platform lock.
I don’t see how it’s unreasonable that someone would want to make plans based on the development velocity of software. Just because it’s actually hard to estimate some things accurately doesn’t mean it’s not valuable from a business perspective. The original post was someone saying that they should never be asked for estimates because every single thing they make is a unique snowflake of unknowable complexity, which is absurd. There are definitely features which an engineer can easily estimate delivery timelines on, and even knowing ballparks like “this is hard (as in weeks)” or “this is easy (as in hours/days)” is super valuable to communicate to actual business stakeholders.

In a healthy culture it should be possible to have a back and forth about how accurate an estimate is likely to be, but when engineers insist that all estimation is useless you can imagine why other stakeholders may lost trust.
To what comment is this comment directed? That quote does not appear to be from this thread.

I think it is fair to say that there are typically reasons for war to occur (even if the chain of causality isn’t reflective in the claims of the belligerents). An example might be the US into Afghanistan after the Taliban did not extradite the leadership of Al Qaeda. Was the attack of 9/11/01 not “getting provoked to wage war?”
As a European my concern is actually for Muslim girls. Every year a few of them end up honour killed.

So no it's not just the gays who have to fear their parents.
You might have a sampling problem.

There are definitely artists who live off external validation out there.

They just don’t hang out with engineers in the weekend.
Regardless, pointing to Utah” specific “cultural features” doesn’t make much sense. Neighboring Colorado has an even higher suicide rate, and is at the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of culture compared to Utah.
Ended up having a lawyer write a letter, got the entire neighborhood to sign it (which shows how pissed I was, since I'm very nonconfrontational), and sent it to his landlord. Funny enough, his landlord is named Elmer, and has the social skills of Elmer Fud.
Agile frameworks often remove the developer as much as possible from the time estimation effort, instead relying on past performance, and attempting instead to have the developer focus on breaking work up evenly.
Only ThrowawayR2's people can bring salvation to the human race. Let there be one ruler, one king.
Bingo. Nobody who ever won a Nobel Prize, competed in the Olympics, or, in Joseph's Heller's case, wrote several novels that each took years to complete ever got up in the morning and said "I've done enough."

Chasing money might be dumb but chasing excellence in your own personal goals might be the only meaning to life that there is or ever will be.
AI also suffers front the grey goo and paperclip maximizing issues too.
It's true, but there is no indication that GPT can explain larger concepts for you, and negative indication it will be able to do it accurately.

It can't even explain small code to me unless it is something that it has been trained on. Often it gets even simple things wrong, either obviously, or worse, subtly wrong.
"Trained on stolen data"
This is emotionally charged wording with a clear confrontational bias and a dark intent to discredit.

As someone with over 30 years of experience with art and artists, do you realize how many influences are present in any given artist? Do you know how many artists use "reference images" heavily? Do you know how many artists trace images (specially in 3D modeling)?
By your logic, every piece of art is stolen, if not from other artists, from reality itself. You are insulting every artist present in this forum with your bias. Thanks for that.

Also, art made by commission or contract is technically property of the one who paid. Only the top recognized artists get to retain ownership of a specific piece or design done for a company, and even that is rare. How many cases are there where artists jumped ship off a property and needed to make lawyer-friendly pastiches of the characters, because they didn't own the rights?

And, the Unet does not store images. This is not a photobasher nor a extreme compression algorithm. You'd know this if you had bothered to try. Which I have. I have trained it on my own artwork and in fact I maintain one of the largest guides about how to train Stable Diffusion using Low Rank Adaptation. You can't just "take out" an image in any exact capacity, and a lot of "proofs" are fabricated using img2img or models trained so aggressively on a single image that it's going to resemble it no matter what (and yet it'll never be reproduced 1:1). People fueled by strong emotions are not incapable of deceit. In fact, it's the stuff you MUST double-check, precisely because fueled by emotions.

I'm so disappointed in "tech people" lately.
Ah so you think the 32k context window works differently than eg the 4k davinci context window? They didnt just increase ${hyperparam}?
I was just thinking about this. Does folding your hands count as a gear? The interlocked fingers make for a tighter grasp. When viewed from the palm side they even look like a gear. It is not the natural state of the hands but many gears also spend time in an unmeshed state. What is the definition of a gear anyway?
That's pretty much what I've found when I'used it to try writing articles. They're mostly not wrong. But they lack nuance, examples, links, research references, quotes, depth, etc. They're generally shallow and formulaic. Might I consider using one as a stub to get me started? Sure. On the other hand, that means I need to deliberately break out from the formula. I'm not sure how much time it would save me at the end of the day but I may give it a try on something real one of these days.
Bing is super lovely in terms of eye candy, but apparently they don't even offer a real history like the ChatGPT sidebar has.
It helps that inflation was very little and very uncommon at the time. Pikkety opens his book with a story from late 18th century, and if I remember correctly, he did look into this and found that for a centuries currencies hardly de-valuated.

I asked our all knowing friend to hash up the story for me, 'cause he remembers it better than I did:

Question:

Do you remember pikkety's book "capital in the 21st century", in which he opens with a story about people in french contemplating the best way to get rich. He also has a tangent about how money barely de-evaluated. Could you repeat that to me?

Answer:

Yes, I can certainly help you with that. In his book "Capital in the Twenty-First Century," Thomas Piketty opens with a story about a dinner party in France in the early 21st century, where the guests were discussing the best ways to get rich. Piketty uses this story to introduce the central theme of his book, which is the study of wealth and income inequality over time.

In the book, Piketty also discusses the phenomenon of barely devalued money. He argues that in the post-World War II period, Western economies experienced a period of high economic growth, which allowed for the accumulation of significant amounts of capital. However, in the decades that followed, growth rates began to slow down, which meant that the returns on capital also began to decline.

Piketty notes that during this period, the value of money barely devalued, which had the effect of increasing the relative value of capital. This, in turn, contributed to rising income and wealth inequality, as those who owned capital were able to accumulate more wealth at the expense of those who did not.

Overall, Piketty's book is a comprehensive analysis of the history of wealth and income inequality and its impact on society.
Oh, I'm not looking to absolve SVB of their responsibility for their position. I think you misread my comment. I mean blaming the Fed for the yield curve inversion and the steep change in long-term rates, and thus value of long-term debt, as opposed to only low overnight interest rates. The Fed does not deserve blame for SVB's choice to load up on that long-term debt without hedging those risks. I'm answering the parent's context, which is discussing how the gun got loaded; we all agree it was SVB to blame for pointing it at their own head.
> "You seem to think that the obese are "unwilling" (whatever that means)."

What means is that the person who is paralyzed from the waist down cannot run (unable), the person with a minor knee pain who is not running can be either unable and unwilling, and the person with no pain, functioning legs etc. who is not running is able to do so, but unwilling (maybe they like different sports or they want to watch a movie).

The other day, pizza was offered at work. I wanted to eat a couple of slices, but I thought about the summer, and the beach, and swimsuits. And I decided not to eat pizza. But I really wanted to eat a couple of slices with cheese and salami. Did I restrain my urge, or I did not have an urge, just a desire? Is the nature determined by the results?

From a consequentialist point of view, and outside pathologies of various nature (such as yours), I find it better to assume that overweight people are unwilling to close the fridge, put the fork down, and push themselves away from the table.
Ask HN: What does software *for your product* cost?
("for your product" means, software you're incorporating into a product, not just using it internally)

I have a 4-part series coming up on software patents. The first two parts are written, but part three is to be about damages. My thesis is that, if someone does infringe your patent, the damages should be proportional to what a willing buyer would have paid to a willing seller. Possibly with a multiplier, but not some made-up gigantic number.

In particular, I once posed this question to a VP Eng, and he said he would never pay royalties to someone, without a cap. Unless it was mission-critical and in that case, he would want to own it.

Yet the damages claims I've seen are almost always an uncapped royalty, or else a huge number way beyond the willing-buyer-willing-seller range.

No rants, please. What I'm looking for is some actual dollar figures for software you've licensed. I will anonymize it, and I will show you my text before publishing so you can be satisfied that your secrets are protected.
If you're on Firefox you can go into Font Settings and uncheck Allow pages to choose their own fonts, instead of your selections above.
Gordon Moore, Intel co-founder and creator of Moore's Law, dies aged 94
I hope that an LZW compressor was something she would have naturally wanted to hack on herself, rather than something she’s only coding because she was “tasked” to.

The most surefire way to kill a young hacker’s spirit is to force them to hack on things they don’t care about. This goes with anything, not just computing. To whit, a childhood friend of mine was a gifted pianist who really loved jazz. His parents forced him to study with a classical teacher. Guess who doesn’t play piano anymore?
Headset is something that you wear, there’s a personal connection and an aspect of fashion.

Apple can be fashion too.

As long as the product is closer to AirPods Max than Mac Pro, people will buy it.
They are social media sites, the textbook example of the network effect.

Them not being very profitable is almost like a moat in itself - not only is it hard to displace them, it's probably not profitable to do so either.
Putnam on Reason, Reductionism, and Relativism
That's just the problem. It's very popular with people who want to bypass the law. Occasionally that's crucial and laudable. Usually it's drugs and illegal pornography. Which makes its use for anything legal dubious.

If it ever could have broken that stigma, the swarm of speculators and scammers made that impossible.
For me, it's specifically those gasoline leaf blowers. It gives me pretty high anxiety that no other sound does, for reasons I don't understand. The rest of your list can be bothersome to me, but doesn't create the anxiety.
even from a purely material perspective, the US would lose little - China will be more than happy to sell us chips from its conquered TSMC labs just like they are happy to sell us everything else (and chips are not a singular strategic issue - we already need Chinese rare earth minerals among many other things, not just cheap crap at Walmart)

the only real losers are the Taiwanese who now don't own those factories anymore (but are otherwise fine - they will be on the first planes out)...and American soldiers who are dead or maimed

...and still, no one seems willing to answer if they or their kids should be among the dead/maimed

rich Americans with opportunities are far too comfortable about asking poor/disadvantaged Americans (i.e almost everyone who joins the armed forces) to die for oil, phones etc

bring back the draft, get kids from Stanford and MIT CS potentially on the front line and you will see a 180 change in almost all US policy
I really think it’s important to stress that it’s not all technology generally. It’s a specific thing: addictive content on mobile phones, especially when it also delivers toxic messaging (whether intentionally or not).

The really toxic thing here is the portable omnipresent virtual Skinner box.

Highlighting that specific thing will help make sure any regulation we do enact will be properly targeted. Kids learning to code or doing homework on a computer or even playing a few games is not the problem. “Social” media and hyper-addictive content is the problem. Tech that is designed to be addictive is the problem.

Addictive trash on PCs can be harmful too, but the form factor limits just how extreme and pervasive it can be.

I also think the mobile ecosystem is just culturally more oriented toward making things addictive. Mobile games, media, everything on the platform seems designed to suck people in and keep them staring. The PC ecosystem still seems to have some sense that computers should exist to help people or make them smarter, not addict them. It’s like mobile is run by the people who design slot machines.
DeFi isn't more extreme. Most of it is by necessity fully- or over-collateralized, making cascading systemic failure much less likely, if not impossible. Pegged stablecoins are not DeFi. I would argue the collateralized parts of DeFi are currently more stable than CeFi, and closer to narrow banking/full reserve banking than anything else available right now.

https://www.narrowbanking.org/

Caveat - the main problem with DeFi is that Solidity and the EVM are garbage and give programmers too many footguns to accidentally shoot themselves with. Most DeFi failures have been a result of those languages being based on Javascript (wtf!) and prioritizing familiarity and ease of use over security, correctness, and provability. But there are other more solid platforms for DeFi, and better and better tooling for EVM-based DeFi.
I'm not in agreement that western reporting is generally accurate, no.

They refused to even call that lie a lie even as they printed both facts side by side. It was bizarre.

The West definitely lies less than Ukraine though.
> and only for "body sbop" work that is the same as previous work.

That’s absolutely preposterous. As a senior engineer, I have seen enough that I have at least a high-level idea of what most of the dev tasks and stories I’m estimating are. I don’t always have the specific details that may change the estimate, but I also have a whole team of other people who have seen even more things and can inform that opinion.

The point of refinement sessions is to share this information with everyone else so an estimate can be created and if needed, tasks can be better defined, split up or merged.

> And only works if management wants an estimate. More commonly, management wants a lie they can tell the client.

Wat? Estimates is used for plenty of reasons that have nothing to do with external clients.

How do you think your manager, their manager, etc knows what is going on and approximately how long it’s going to take? They’re going to be far more disconnected from the work than the people doing it day to day, so they would generally have no clue how long something is estimated to take without someone telling them.
Well, if the hegemon had done something productive rather than waving their dick with invasions / bombings / sanctions / political interferences / etc. etc. they might have had more sympathetic view from the outside.
GPT-2 as step toward general intelligence (2019)
> unhedged duration risk, nor the moral hazard created by the bailout

Just making sure I understand your point here, are you just against "banking"? Unhedged duration risk w/ LOLR backup is essentially "the banking business".

What's the moral hazard? The equity is wiped out, most of the debtors are wiped out.

The only moral hazard I see is we've disincentivized individual depositors from assessing the financial strength of their banks. To me, this is a good thing. I hope we can bring similar moral hazards to choosing a plane to fly on, bridge to cross, building to enter, restaurant to eat in, hospital to go to, etc.
This is why it’s a good idea to have ranged estimates. If a simple known thing with zero unknowns has maybe a 200% margin (1-3 days) then a more unknown task can have 10x as wide margin like 1 to 20 days.

As a developer I never get “that’s a useless estimate we can’t prioritize based on that/tell the customer that”. It’s a perfectly good estimate. It tells everyone there is a lot of uncertainty. The low lower bound indicates there is a chance it might turn out to be cheap (so maybe worth taking a gamble and trying it and giving up). The big variance indicates it could/should be given some time to prep/investigate in order to narrow the estimate.

When there are unknowns, make a wide estimate. Convey the uncertainty. If the unknowns are ridiculous, make a ridiculous estimate. Even “5-200 days” is useful because something else with less uncertainty can be chosen instead.
When would you ever need more than that in the Arduino ecosystem? I haven't in a rather long time. These days I usually don't even bother with LEDs, I'll just use an addressible pixel LED.

Rather than a transistor I might just use a relay, mosfet, or motor driver module, since I can get extra features like short circuit protection and the ability to quickly swap without soldering anything, which gets exponentially more appealing the more times you have to repair something that's been made with discrete parts.

The use cases where I'd be working any other way are mostly outside of what I'd use an Uno or similar for anyway. And I probably wouldn't be using 5v at all for prototyping something to mass produce, since 3v3 is taking over.
So you're just going to quibble over the amount of damage a civilization can take before collapse? What point are you trying to make here?
I’m confused too. Seems like link bait. The article fails to connect the dots between SVB and venture valuations, which were already well into a downswing before SVB’s collapse.
AMD64 is an extension of x86, it still runs older 32-bit code just fine. I don't see the relevance of IA64, the point wasn't about what Intel have done but about code running on different vendor's platforms.

For the most part you can recompile code written for x86 (x64) to run on ARM, and when you do it will run on future ARM processors as well. If you have Cuda code, you can't just recompile it to run on AMD or Intel, and if you compile ROCm code you can't run it on future AMD GPUs or on Windows or Mac. It's objectively a mess compared to the much easier CPU market, even though programmable GPUs have been around for two decades now.
Intelligence misattribution does not follow from the story of the horse

More like accidental trickery
I'm just not talking about trying to fish an accurate answer. I think you can do that. I'm talking about getting an answer about something that requires an interaction that gets the model to "understand" the problem (like you would a person) - which GPT can't do.
Super interesting, particularly the link through to the blog with all the research into how Notes works.

A particularly interesting thing that I don't see mentioned anywhere is that Apple Notes uses CRDTs (conflict free replicated data types) to enable both shared notes and multiple concurrent edits. With the CRDTs resolving the conflicts.

It looks like the info on the page may be a good place to start looking to how that works: https://www.ciofecaforensics.com/2020/10/20/apple-notes-clou...
Managers don't actually want estimates. A genuine "estimate" would be a probability distribution over a range of dates, with some point identified as the most likely delivery date and a roughly even chance of being early or late relative to that point. What they actually want is "the earliest date you cannot currently prove to be infeasible", which essentially is the near end of that date range, so there's a roughly 100% chance you'll come in after it. I've had exactly one manager who (after I explained this) admitted that was actually what he wanted, but I couldn't convince him of the utility of asking for genuine estimates.
Have not had that experience with GPT-4. But that is almost unusable for me anyway because it's crazy slow (during US working hours anyway, it's faster at night) and the rate caps get hit before we get anywhere.
We're performing applied mathematics, but we're performing that task as engineers. The key is in 'applied'. Going from theory to practice takes planning and is not as unbounded as performing science in my opinion.
I'd even say this model was a net negative for development in general. So much complexity and time wasted spread throughout the industry because of these companies with infinite money
To complete the joke, Information Architure (IA) = Architecture de l'Information (AI).
> Unfortunately this bit of illogic is so common that I know it’s a waste of time to argue, so I’ve learned how to figure out what they want the estimates to be, give them that, miss them (just like everybody else does), and then get to work on actually providing the feature.

I do that and I've become exceptionally good at blaming the business persons for the outcome, making them admit their guilt in public and all that in what seems a friendly, positive and constructive manner and using business motivation and explanation. They never understood what hit them. Every programmer can do that if he or she learns a bit of psychology.