skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> Can you do it? Provide an estimate that's accurate and stick to it with the routinized scheduling of a blue collar job?

Yes, I work as a delivery lead nowadays. Producing and respecting estimates for software projects is literally my job.

I routinely fire developers who pretend they can’t do estimate and strangely the ones I keep are actually not only able to do it but good at it.
Incidentally, the guy who wrote RAR (and an incredibly great file manager for Windows, FAR Manager), Eugene Roshal, has studied at the very same faculty/specialty as I did. However, he had graduated before I entered the university.
It's not some kind of first order statistical gibberish.

It exhibits internal abstract modeling.

It's a bit silly to argue against it at this time.

To produce answers with quality we see it'd have to use orders of magnitude more memory than it actually does.

It's also easy to test yourself.

Simple way is to create some role playing scenario with multiple characters when same thing is seen differently by different actors at different time and probe it with questions (ie. somebody puts X into bag labelled Y, other person doesn't see it and asking what different actors think is in the bag at specific time in the scenario etc).

Or ask for some crazy analogy.

Why am I even saying it, just ask it to give you list of examples how to probe LLM to discover if it creates abstract internal models or not - it'll surely give you a good list.
Ask HN: Curated list of top AI models per function?
I'm looking for a daily updated, opinionated catalog of best AI models, segregated per function. Both SaaS and open models. I mean functions like speech-to-text (Whisper etc), conversational (GPT-4 and open alternatives), text-to-speech, image generation, etc.

I prefer it to only list a tiny number of top-performing models per category. I do not want a bag of hundreds of models to research through.

Essentially, I want opinionated state-of-the-art tracker, because I can't keep up.
dnf has copied zypper's other innovations as well, like vendor change.

It's also fully usable on openSUSE, as a replacement for zypper, if you so desire. :)

dnf and zypper are the best of the 'old school' package managers, in my experience (and to my taste). If want traditional package management, you can't go wrong with either.
The actual answers to OP's question is that management needs to know:

- how much resource to allocate to the task

- variations of the estimates in function of variations of the scope

In my experience, "ballparks" estimates are sufficient for this exercise, and precise estimates are just resource-tracking leading to the issues described by OP.
I think there's a good argument - made very well by Viv Albertine of The Slits in her autobiography Clothes, Music, Boys - that people outside the scene took punk too seriously. They weren't great crusaders for truth and justice, they were the court jesters who pointed out the emperor had no clothes but were mostly just having fun provoking people. Which includes John Lydon pissing people off by issuing NFTs and praising Trump. It's all the same.
Fast? I think they mean success is coming in discrete jumps rather than gradually
That's a special case then.
Microsoft Planning Security Layoffs
See in this case the manager has done a bad job, but the developer has also done a bad job, both in the exact same way.

The correct solution here isn't just to insist estimation is impossible and be offended that someone would ask for it - that just misunderstands how businesses work.

The correct thing is for either of those parties to say, "Okay, I understand it's not estimable at the moment. What are the steps that we need to take in order to get a reasonable estimate?"

A good PM will do this, but where there is a bad PM, a developer can step in and say the same thing. In your scenario, "The developer says “there are too many unknowns to provide any sort of estimate”." What the developer could say is, "There are too many unknowns to provide any sort of estimate - let me give you a few examples. <examples>. What I can do is come back to you after <amount of time> with a list of the unknowns and an explanation of the work required to evaluate them, so that we have enough information to estimate. Once you have that list, then you can decide if we want to proceed with the work to understand those unknowns."

I totally understand why developers get frustrated when they're asked to give estimates for things that can't reasonably be estimated with the current information available. But the flip side is it's also very reasonable for PMs to get frustrated and ignore developers who insist that estimation is an impossibility, because that's virtually never true - maybe it's impossible to do now, but there is a path to make it possible. If you work proactively to expose that path to the PM, it'll generally result in everyone being happier.
You use a platitude(creating business value) to reach a non sequitur(that's why developers must estimate their tasks).

To say that a developer is there to create business value is a truism that's completely irrelevant to this discussion.
Conscription today would be interesting, since having most mental/physical disabilities (like autism or depression) currently bars you from service.
> I tweeted that George Bush should be dead, and I went to bed.
Lack of pre-december github activity could be an indicator, i.e. no pull requests, no issues, no stars or forks, perhaps even no feed updates, etc.
Two banks with a lot of exposure to risky cryptocurrency startups collapsed and the cryptobros immediately used that to push FUD that all banks will soon collapse and everyone should move their money to crypto. And it worked.

Not a single popular movement lies as much as the cryptobros and repeatedly get away with it.
I have published an app [Exporter](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/exporter/id1099120373?mt=12) that does something similar - exports Apple Notes to HTML and markdown with the attachments. Give it a try, let me know if it solves your issue.

Also, why did you select JSON as the output format?
Did they ever promise that?
Your summary of the Bible is off base. If you're summarizing the book of Ecclesiastes, you're almost there. Solomon provides a succinct description of the point of the book.

Ecc 8:15 15So I commended pleasure, for there is nothing good for a man under the sun except to eat and to drink and to be merry, and this will stand by him in his fntoils throughout the days of his life which God has given him under the sun.

But also

Ecc 11:8-9 8Indeed, if a man should live many years, let him rejoice in them all, and let him remember the days of darkness, for they will be many. Everything that is to come will be futility.
9¶Rejoice, young man, during your childhood, and let your heart be pleasant during the days of young manhood. And follow the fnimpulses of your heart and the fndesires of your eyes. Yet know that God will bring you to judgment for all these things.

As for the Bible, I'll direct you to the late theologian Chuck Missler.
What about all the drug deals and bribes?????
How to upgrade from MySQL 5.7 to 8.0
"the crypto mining industry collapsed..."

It did not collapse. Only GPU mining collapsed (shitcoins). ASIC-based mining is going strong (Bitcoin). Disk-based mining is going strong (Chia).
Doing a quick back-of-the-napkin calculation (well, awk in a terminal), I guess you could probably save 1/4 to 1/8 of your annual petrol cost if you were driving an EV.

If you currently drive a PHEV with a small 18 kWh battery, you are at least eliminating about half the vehicle's local emissions during the week.

All told, if you do 6 long trips each year ( 6 * 4400 km ), a PHEV would make the most sense.

Or, as I am sure you have considered, you could use a rental vehicle for your long annual trips. To really offset the cost of a large-battery EV, it makes a big difference to be able to charge at home (Level 2).

A large-battery EV saves money especially if one has the possibility to charge at home. Motorway charging takes time and can be expensive.
None of the currently existing big defense contractors have offices in silicon valley. I don't know what the reason is, but it can't be simple happenstance.
Enabling ransomware is 'useful'? To criminals perhaps.
IMO since crypto is a newer technology than AI, I think it's more relevant to ask whether crypto is "AI all over again".

AI has followed the classic Gartner hype cycle [1]. There was the trigger in the 1960s-90s, the peak of inflated expectations in 2000-2010 with every other company bragging about "AI this" or "machine learning that" while having nothing of any use to show for it, then finally the "slope of enlightenment" from the 2010s-present where AI is actually becoming useful to people in their everyday lives.

Crypto may be on the way out - or - it may be following a similar curve on a shifted timeline. For example: Trigger in 2009, peak of inflated expectations 2017 (cryptokitties), trough of disillusionment 2017-2030, slope of enlightenment 2030-2040.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle
The fact that we have 12 year olds asset flipping from tutorials today shows the value of those asset flips. If chatGPT cannibalises that market, I will then be as scared of ChatGPT taking my work as I am of a 12 year old who can follow a unity tutorial right now.

> It's hard but not that hard.

It really is that hard. It's basically 90% of staff+ engineer's job.

I don't doubt that AI and ML in particular will absolutely change our industry, but as an engineer I see chatGPT as a tool like copilot, a debugger, or a linter. All those tools make me an order of magnitude more productive, but they're useless without the human making the decisions
Multiple things can be worked on at the same time.
spoiler: its largely not true.

There was single significant defection before the introduction of the "teen" fighters, codenamed HAVE DOUGHNUT, and even it was not actually Soviet (an Iraqi pilot defected to Israel). All the other defections (which there were several) happened using old/non-fighter aircraft (iirc there were several MiG-15/17/19 which were essentially Korean War era designs), or happened after the teens were designed.
Robotic honeycomb for interaction with a honeybee colony
That’s perfectly expected. But the key is: narrowing the estimate isn’t free.

You can’t pull a different estimate out of thin air. And zero people will expect it.

The developer needs to say “I can say 10-100 days right now in this meeting, but given just 1 day of investigating, I’ll narrow the estimate range by an order of magnitude”.
Kotlin/WASM: transcript of the talk from WASM I/O 23
>fossilized two party system supported by all kinds of powers and structures that the voters aren't allowed to change

The original system wasn't two party. In fact, the first Chief Executive (President of the United States) on leaving Office, specifically warned the populace against anything remotely resembling the formation of political parties.

The populace quickly ignored that advice, and carved up the country between Federalists and Anti-Federalists who either vied to achieve the Supreme Seat of Power to enact their Will, or hold that Seat so no one would be able to avail themselves of it.
> When there are unknowns, make a wide estimate. Convey the uncertainty. If the unknowns are ridiculous, make a ridiculous estimate. Even “5-200 days” is useful because something else with less uncertainty can be chosen instead.

As a PM, I couldn't possibly agree more with this. When you give me 5-200 days instead of "we can't estimate this", you've started the beginning of a productive conversation. I can ask you questions about why the range is so big, and you can explain to me what steps we can take (research, narrowing scope, etc.), to reduce the range.
Wasn’t Nvidia trying to block cryptomining a year or two ago so they could sell to their core target markets in peace?

It seems difficult to reconcile “we’re actively trying to stop cryptominers from buying our product” actions with “we’re against cryptomining only because they’re not buying our product” views.
Here’s a simple Eurorack module (the first panel I did this way, so nothing fancy).

https://www.dropbox.com/s/wex8osz4ok2cjys/IMG_2795.HEIC?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/3owyglzfskmgacg/IMG_2796.HEIC?dl=0

One trick I just remembered: put the front of the panel on the back of the board, so JLC’s part number gets printed on the back of the panel.
*Samsung, though. Not Sony.
The church is often on their "team" so it gets a pass for rampant child abuse. Notice none of the groomer allegations are directed at the church despite the church abusing exponentially more children than people in drag. There is no global drag organization which is protecting members found to be abusing children by moving them into new areas where people don't know their priest is a pedophile the way we see in the church. If the "protect children" cries were honest, the churches and clergy should be one of the primary targets.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/religion/nearly-1-700-priests-c...

> Nearly 1,700 priests and other clergy members that the Roman Catholic Church considers credibly accused of child sexual abuse are living under the radar with little to no oversight from religious authorities or law enforcement, decades after the first wave of the church abuse scandal roiled U.S. dioceses, an Associated Press investigation has found.

> These priests, deacons, monks and lay people now teach middle-school math. They counsel survivors of sexual assault. They work as nurses and volunteer at nonprofits aimed at helping at-risk kids. They live next to playgrounds and daycare centers. They foster and care for children.

> And in their time since leaving the church, dozens have committed crimes, including sexual assault and possessing child pornography, the AP’s analysis found.
Well, she seems to be interested in programming and I don't force it on her. So far I think she does quite good. I have chosen lzw for her since my strategy is to give her quite a few diverse tasks to give her broad (albeit not very deep) understanding of general areas of development. I have covered this topic in more detail in a sibling comment here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35318995
For the youngsters out there, the worst sound ever is scraping fingernails on a chalkboard. I do not think anyone can deal with that. Just thinking about it gives me the willies.

I do not remember when chalkboards were phased out to whiteboards, but I have not seen one in quite a while.

edit: spelling
I'm probably one of the five people on this earth who gets Elon (not in a way his fanbois do).

Let me point out the negatives of Elon

i) He is a bull-shitter. He has no clue about a lot of things, yet he has plenty of hubris.

ii) He is mis-trusting of people (this always comes from upbringing and environment. If people constantly misplace your trust growing up, your default is to mistrust people). I can understand why you wouldn't want to work under Elon. That's a perfectly valid reason

What makes Elon different, and which a lot of people don't get about him (including his fanbois)?

i) He is a true Engineer in the sense, even if he starts with bullshit and hubris, he is a quick learner. He breaks things to learn from first principles (Things he has repeatedly demonstrated everywhere). Media/HN focus on him breaking things, but that's what how everyone learns about complex systems.

People don't appreciate how quickly he went from from 'Alien Dreadnought' to 'Tent in a backyard' and then back to AI Automation at Tesla.

ii) Bias for action with the right amount of risks. Some people have bias for action, some people take risks and some are constant learners. But, I have never seen anyone combine all three like Elon. He is successful not because of his knowledge, but his willingness to take risks despite massive adversity and guaranteed mock by media.

iii) He is narcisstic, but not like Trump. He has several times shown self-deprecating humor and acknowledged his mistakes (and quickly learns from them).
I'm not a crypto fan, but I think the argument would be that Bitcoin in particular wasn't created as a means of wealth accumulation, but rather as a means of avoiding government interference in "money." That may have been misguided, but I think that's the argument.
This is the better version, since it delivers actual text instead of png's: https://text.orf.at
My grandmother introduced me to this when I was in elementary school - https://www.exploratorium.edu/files/exhibits/ladle/
Here's the paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.12712.pdf
Good for you. But it seems that cryto is a zero sum game. Every dollar one person makes, another person loses.
>I don't think I've ever heard anyone describe the effects of LSD as "predictable". I'm guessing you've never actually taken it and are talking out of your ass.

How is it not predictable? Varying degrees depending on dosage of hullucinations, euphoria, altered state of mind including altered senses of time, sound, vision, touch etc. This is how the effects of drugs are described by medicine and science.

It seems as if you are ignoring this part of their statement "effects on my mental state." They aren't saying the content of the hallucination is predictable or anything like that.
> I wonder if the person asking the question would be happy to let someone do a job in his home with an uncapped budget and timeline?

Huh? Every major contract job on my house and my friends' houses that I have heard of has taken longer than originally "planned". More often than not unexpected expenses come up along the way. The same is true for commercial construction/remodeling. That's just how these things work; pretending otherwise is going to be a huge source of friction.
> You are misunderstanding your job. You are a subject expert and paid accordingly. Answer with what the unknowns are, an optimistic and pessimistic take on them, what you could do and how long it would take to lift them.

My optimistic/pessimistic takes at my last job would look something like "roughly a week to roughly 2 years"

Depends on how deep the yak shaving goes, and you wouldn't know until you got halfway through fixing the problem.

Often I could take an educated guess as to which side of the scale it came down on, but I've definitely started pulling on a string inside of the codebase and it just kept going and going and going. All of those baked-in assumptions that other developers unconsciously made over the course of a decade can pile up into a mess that you just can't implement the feature/bugfix without doing a pile of potentially breaking changes that need to be shipped in major versions.

Generally if I worked the problem for a week then I could give you a much better estimate of when it would be done, and often that estimate was "it's done now" after a week. But if I hadn't looked at that particular subsystem for a few years, I couldn't trust my memory of it up front and had to do exploratory surgery first.

(Really exploratory surgery is a much better metaphor for what you're going to be doing, and surgeons can routinely find surprises -- "oh look that barely perceptible shadow on the x-ray turns out to be a stage 4 tumor...")

Yes, the codebase was horrible, yes it needed to be cleaned up, no we didn't have the manpower to do that and it would have taken me 10 years to rewrite it all.

Quitting of course was an excellent solution.
While compression is congruent with some cases of statistical inference, no one is trying to do statistical inference using compression. Even the example you gave of Fabrice Bellard (which I highly admire) does the converse and uses neural networks to compress.

Even for realizing what you've said one needs a bit of theory, basic computer science and some math. And most people today have a "do" philosophy and are result oriented. They are not learn oriented, they hate CS and math and they hate low level programming.

I don't think compression is highly relevant today, but at the time I started learning it was a good tool to sharpen one's mind. Learn algorithms, learn about memory management, learn about hardware, learn low level constructs, learn a bit of math.

Whenever a young person wanting to undertake a programmer career is asking me for advice I'll ask what their motivation is. If they just want money I advice them to learn the tools in fashion today, maybe Javascript and React, maybe Python, maybe C#. But if they respond they want to do it for both enjoyment and money, I put them on the hard path. I ask they enroll an BS CS program, or if that is not possible, give them long lists of books, tutorials, courses which cover CS basics, math used in CS basics, hardware, low level programming and the programming hot topics du jour. In that last case I also design their learning paths to accommodate their goals and I am always taking time to answer them questions in the future if I can, if not I will at least indicate where should they look or which is the right person to ask.
Alright this one annoyed me enough to look it up.

First of all Peterson’s claim is 83, not 85.

Second, The military does not test IQ. It has a different test with a decent correlation. This test scores in percentiles however. And the bottom 10% are not allowed in. This is not the same thing as 10% of all people cannot get in, as those taking the military test are probably a lower IQ subset on average.

Probably not by much. I would guess the military is current cutting off the bottom 8-10% of the population.

I can’t find much in the way of hard stats but I still feel pretty strongly that a 10th percentile individual is more than well equipped to be a delivery driver of a warehouse worker or whatever.
There is a hard line between insolvency and illiquidity. Illiquidity can be solved by borrowing at the federal funds rate.
This is cool.... but where is the lisp machine(s)? It's sort of there as it mentions xerox early stuff but not directly. Needs a whole category for symbolics on the left I reckon.
Indiana Jones captures the benefits of stand-off weapons here https://youtu.be/vdnA-ESWcPs?t=120
> that's why I don't understand this privacy craze going on.

Because you were born in a stable democracy. Congratulations. Enjoy your privilege.
Have you tried one of the web-based ones? Like Toggl or Rescue Time? Or manual with a custom setup may be the way to go - e.g, my current time tracking is a bunch of markdown files with YAML front matter keeping track of the specifics, and Obsidian (a cross-platform note-taking app) provides the "UI" for viewing the data from these files in a meaningful way. The cost of setting this up is non-trivial: but worth it if you are in it long term IMO :)
The tech in the print head doesn't have a size limit, the prototype printer is limited to "26 feet wide and 20 feet high".

I'm not sure if that means it has a circular print bed or if it has a square bed and they just omitted the length.
For anyone else who's confused because of how it's presented, this is a 2001 article about upgrading to Mac OS 9.1, with a short intro above the first "What it does" subhead.
~10 years ago when I spoke with sys admins about OpenSUSE their feedback was basically: "Due to demand in the institute we have to support it but recommend everyone to stay very very far away from it as it's a security nightmare and in general hard to _properly_ maintain."

Is that still this way today? I mean even back then you had some people promoting it as grate thing, while basically everyone (I knew) with expertise evaluated it as terrible.

But then a lot of time passes, so things can be very different now.
If you re-frame money as essentially a form of speech then 'making yourself heard' makes sense. The medium becomes the message. DeFi as the ideal, not top-down government to control the money supply with sketchy all-seeing-eye masonic symbols on the banknotes.
Right out of _A Fish Called Wanda_!
Did they back then pronounce i and y the same way? Or do I mispronounce year and it should sound like eear?