skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Did they fail to recognize it, or merely judge that that outcome was better than the alternative or that they could turn it down before the inflation got out of hand?

It seems utterly obvious that a high level of money printing without a matching increase in supply of goods and services would eventually lead to a dramatic increase in inflation. It's less obvious exactly when that would start and when it would overshoot a comfortable range.
> Pause / raise slowly, and you risk inflation running red hot

The federal funds rate is such a blunt instrument. It's not clear to me that raising the rate is particularly effective in stopping inflation, which tends to be a complex phenomenon with multiple causes. As you say, there are "other dynamics".

> people who are technically employed, live paycheck to paycheck start to rely on food banks to cover the rapid raise in cost of living - a tax on everybody.

On the other hand, there are also people who lose their paychecks entirely due to rising interest rates. The Fed has been very public about the fact that they want to stop wage inflation in particular (which tends to lag behind inflation of other goods).

It's never been clear to me why it's a good idea to continually adjust the rate, as opposed to picking an ideal target rate and trying to keep it relatively stable permanently. It seems almost inevitable that the economy will go on a roller coaster with the fed turning the volume knob up and down. Chicken and egg problem, to mix my metaphors.
Your second reference makes it quite clear that nobody was “made whole” by the program:

“Participating MMFs were required to have an NAV at or above $0.995 on September 19, 2008 (Department of the Treasury 2008f). Architects of the program chose this cutoff to prevent damaging runs while at the same time not curing “losses that had already been sustained (because of credit mistakes) at the few funds that were already in trouble” (Shafran 2020).”

“There were no losses, and the Department of the Treasury did not make any payments through the Guarantee Program, generating a surplus of $1.2 billion in fees.”
He is probably right.

So many businesses have become financialized now. In the UK, John Lewis, which is/was an upmarket department store (and also owns Waitrose, a grocery store), is a mutual, owned by it's employees, but is now in the built-to-rent property market. Its literally burning the reputation and diversifying in to all kinds of gimmicks as it dies.

Sainsbury's, one of the biggest supermarket chains in the UK, has been in to lending (credit cards, loans) for decades now.
Half the point of raising rates like this is to signal to everyone that inflation is a priority and will be addressed, with the hope of killing off expectations of further inflation (which can be a feedback loop).

Ultimately none of the measures you mention are really relevant to inflation, as far as the Reserve would be concerned. CPI is.

The US probably has it the worst because they subsidise fixed 30y mortgages, which you pretty much can't get anywhere else on the planet because the terms of such are so insanely generous to the holder. These insulate a massive portion of the US population from immediate effects of rate rises, so the US likely has to hit harder than most other countries for the same effect on inflation.
Well, maybe the self-driving car people thought it was possible. But I don't take them seriously.
Microchip Wars
Notification based tracking app I've been working on.

Lets you track whatever you want by responding directly to the notification, on your phone or watch.

Also provides general analytics and measures experiments effects (how do time periods with new behaviors affect your tracking).

Have been using it myself for a while now, and will soon post further about my own learnings from it.
Imagine how different the calculus would have been through the pandemic had the Fed been raising rates in 17-19? They would have had runway to lower interest rates before going to zero. In hindsight, the zero interest rate regime was aberrant-unprecedented and forced the market to magic up lots of “accommodations.”

Anyway, the problem with svb was exactly that they decided to not hedge against the possibility of raising interest rates. And for much of the market, that was a bad call. So anyone defending them needs to explain the rational of keeping the zero interest rate regime post-Covid. And it’s got to be better than “line goes up and to the right” for your chosen asset
So what's to stop the gov't from demanding repayment, or in the absence of immediate repayment, saddling "loan" recipients with appropriate collectable debt ?
That's what we like to think, because it's reassuring ("tech will save us"), but that's very, very far to being proven.

Right now we can develop photovoltaic and wind farms in a world that has a lot of fossil fuels. But remove the fossil fuels today, and everything collapses. The question is therefore: can we transition to clean energy before the end of fossil fuels? And the answer is really not clear. Actually it seems more likely that we cannot transition: we will probably have to do with less energy.

Which in turn means that all the tech projects that try to replace "unlimited fossil fuels" by "unlimited clean energy" are just counting on the fact that somebody will solve the problem for them. What's the point of having electric sports cars if we don't have enough energy to use them?

AI is in the business of doing more with more. Chances are that we will have to do less with less.
To be fair, it's not money printing. They just change a number on a computer at the Federal Reserve. We don't even get cash!!
Did you ask him if the design phase had proceeded so smoothly?

Writing software is the equivalent of creating the blueprints; compiling is the equivalent of pouring concrete.
I am currently (and it’s a big volume) reading “the value of everything” , I read it in stints but it’s a great read of how economics evolved as a science and it definitely has social elements to it: so it is motivated in parts by peoples wishes of what they want to get out of it, but it also has a large scientific component as well, so it certainly isn’t black and white.
AI when it becomes powerful enough will be used as tool by the world leaders; the same as the atom bomb was used as a weapon to end WW2 by beating the advisory into the ground.
This is the same repeating story throughout written history why should it change now because Mr. Gates and some other philanthropists are optimists about human nature.
For me, Google was always an Ad company first. But don't get me wrong, they do some great research on the side for AI, like AlphaZero, AlphaGo, etc. But also been early with the Transformer models. There just seems to be a lack to put this into workable products lately.
2022 Turing Award
CPI in 1947 = 21
CPI in 1972 = 42

25 years to double.

CPI in 1980 = 84

18 years to double

CPI in 1999 = 168

19 years to double

24 years later is still hasn't doubled again. It's hardly a runaway freight train compared to pre 1971 is it?
In some responses it now cites a link to this comment section.

--------------

Q: How long will it take before Bard is shut down?

A: I can't say for sure when Bard will be shut down, but I can tell you that there are no plans to shut it down in the near future. Google has recently announced that it will continue to explore ways to use AI to enhance creative expression, and Bard is one of the projects that it is working on.

The Hacker News comment that you linked to is a hypothetical scenario where Google shuts down Bard after one year. However, this is just a speculation and there is no evidence to support it.

If you have any other questions about Bard, please let me know.

Sources - Learn more
news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35255864
I wonder where that "MySQL is easier to scale" trope comes from. Have you ever tried to set up and operate a MySQL/MariaDB cluster? It's a horrible and brittle shitshow. Even if you get it running, there's no guarantee things don't just turn south at any given moment.

In Postgres, replication just... works.
From Wikipedia:

"The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail, first published in 1997, is the best-known work of the Harvard professor and businessman Clayton Christensen. It expands on the concept of disruptive technologies, a term he coined in a 1995 article "Disruptive Technologies: Catching the Wave".[1] It describes how large incumbent companies lose market share by listening to their customers and providing what appears to be the highest-value products, but new companies that serve low-value customers with poorly developed technology can improve that technology incrementally until it is good enough to quickly take market share from established business."

I guess Google is safe. They don't listen to their customers.
Show HN: I developed a 2.5D Starcraft viewer in TypeScript
I wrote this while suffering ( and continuing to suffer ) from long covid in order to distract myself. It supports 99% of replays and maps as long as there are no computer players. It has plugins ( via npm registry ) and macro systems! The largest limitation is that it cannot watch live games. It also supports 3d models if output properly and they'll sync properly to the iscript animation.

It's been fun and very challenging. I had to dig into legacy formats, scene / graphic performance, browser performance, three.js, webgl, typescript, WASM, C++, electron, and a whole bunch of other crazy stuff! It's built on top of OpenBW which is an open source engine rewrite.

Sharing it here before it's obsolete in my life :D Its painful working in the browser / electron for this kind of thing but I would never have gotten this far without it seeing as that's where I'm most knowledgeable / productive. Would love to support WebXR in the future and live obsing!

I have a youtube channel where I showcase some games:
https://www.youtube.com/@imbateam/videos
How would you call your role?
Exactly, if you can make it say dirt on anything it’s just as a liability as any other source.
The upscaling example is 100% just a downsampled image. Really makes you question the rest of the demos.
Would be helfull if it also showed what the version(s) of each OS is (are).
I'm never able to spot the sucker at the poker table. I try and try and always end up assuming it is me. I keep trying. And keep assuming it is me.

Lately I have observed fortune smiles my way more often.

Perhaps I will accrue significant winnings over time. Or not. No matter. Most probably I'm the sucker.

The game is a pleasant distraction. Whenever it stops being fun I get up and leave. Duces.
I got one too! https://github.com/CarlQLange/chatgpt-arcana.el
If people actually cared about impact on girls, they would be out there figuring out how to facilitate what girls need. As in, do they need adults to help them organize in person meetups sooner then in puberty? Do they need adults to care more about their self worth and values or whatever, during or before puberty? Do they need something else? But the debate is not even actually about them and shows zero interest in them as humans. I have seen zero actual interest about values those girls have, struggles they themselves think they have. Nothing of that sort, except some projection.

Look at discussion about it on HN - it it between banning them out of tech entirely (and isolating them in the process) or other punishment and between nothing at all. I have yet to see "we talked about what is going on between kids and found out ..." or "we talked about dangers of addiction and this worked this did not".

For that matter, it is basically same with boys. They actually kill themselves more often, but the point is raised up only as political talking point one - usually to suck it up to feminists. But if they cant beat up feminists with that or if they cant use it to claim that girls should go back to kitchen, then they dont care.

> More girls are feeling hopelessness because of the political landscape in the United States: the reversal of Roe v. Wade has had an enormous impact on the mental health of American women.

Yes, tho most 15 years old don't think that far. Except actually pregnant ones. And there are some reports of sexual harassments and such going up too. Note how these never factor into the discussion about their mental health.
You can only say that once you accept inflation to mean "a single number representing price increases", which is so over-simplified as to be laughable. Not to mention easily manipulated by statistical tricks and more obvious tricks like weighing for "feature increase" or using country-wide medians and not weighing those for population distribution.

If you look at real estate prices vs CPI since MMT really began, real estate grew much faster than CPI, in some cities over twice as fast. That is a direct result of all the excess money that wasn't needed for productive endeavours finding a "safe" place to be parked. Similarly having bonds yield below even the cooked inflation number forces safe traditional investors like pension funds to chase stock market returns which was a large contributor to the gigantic bubble that is now popping.

Redefining inflation to mean consumer price increase was a very sneaky move to be sure. A hundred years ago your statement would have been read as "inflation doesn't cause inflation" since it meant any expansion of the money supply.
> On the one hand, it's holding a fire extinguisher (raising rates).

There’s a lot of discourse that questions I’d rate increases are the most effective tool to tame inflation. It may be the only tool the Fed has, however.

I’m confident the fed is aware of what its actions do, but they themselves admit they aren’t a political organization and the other parts of the government can made different decisions that have different consequences.
On his About page, Ken Rockwell says

> To use words of Ansel Adams on page 193 of his autobiography, this site is my "aggressive personal opinion," and not a "logical presentation of fact." This website is a work of fiction, entirely the product of my own imagination and personal opinion.

and

> I have a big sense of humor, and do this site to entertain you (and myself), as well as to inform and to educate. I occasionally weave fiction and satire into my stories to keep them interesting. I love a good hoax.

and

> I have the energy and sense of humor of a three-year old, so remember, this is a personal website, and never presented as fact. I enjoy making things up for fun, as does The Onion, and I publish them here.

(All of that are his own words!)

If you enjoy his writing for entertainment, no problem. But don't take anything written there as fact.
So would you say there's still enough market for it?
> makes it look like it's the Fed fault all along.

Bingo. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk&t=267s
Two new writers to read! Interesting, if it’s really the case, that there are only a couple of twentieth-century British novelists whose cult reputations outstrip their wider reputations. I feel like there are a number of American authors who fit that description, e.g., John Barth, William Gaddis.
The Federal Reserve is supposed to supervise and regulate banks though. It clearly failed there. (As did Congress, of course. Plenty of governmental blame to go around.)
Europe's Leading Quantum Computer Manufacturer Launches Free Online Course
Responsibility brings consequences. Claims bring horse manure.
Because disabled people don't go to Harvard?!
This will probably get buried asap.

The sunken cost fallacy has never had higher stakes.
The irony is that the vast majority of people with my perspective probably wish that they were wrong as well, but the evidence becomes more damning every day, while the media and hivemind continue trying to erase this evidence from existence.
Its a surreal thought that so many people care more about being right than they do about over 50% of the planet's population being wiped out in the coming decades.

Do you know how little solace there is to find in being right about this?
Thanks for the brief comparison and for the links!
To add to that, pytest's parametrized IDs can be fully controlled in the test code [0], so your test can be something like:

pytest tests/parser/test_expressions.py::test_complex[special_case_7]

[0] https://docs.pytest.org/en/7.1.x/example/parametrize.html#di...
The reference to BeOS brings me good memories. It was a time then the world of desktop operating Systems was much bigger than today.

BeOS, Syllable, SkyOS, Atheos, ReactOS, QNX etc.

At its time I liked BeOS phylosophy more than that of Linux and Windows, it's a shame it didn't take off.
Found your source https://lulz.com/the-ozone-scam-and-dupont-1000-318809/
Increasing the interest rate is supposed to fight inflation.

I often wonder if that really works.

When the risk-free rate rises, doesn't that mean the opposite? That _more_ money will be printed?

When the government says "You give me $100 and I'll give you back more later" - where is this "more" coming from? Isn't it just more debt that will be paid back with more printed money?
Bluetooth is the worst standard ever [1, 2, 3].

My 'solution' is: _Maximum_ 1 (one, one!) Bluetooth 'master' (e.g. phone) device per 'slave device' (e.g. headphones, speaker). That means, if your friend asks if they can connect to your speaker the answer is "Sorry, no.". If you want to use headphones on your laptop and your phone, you need to buy two headphones, etc.

For really problematic appliances, like cars, I just deactivate Bluetooth. Not worth the pain. For audio in the car, I use a portable speaker. :shrug:

[1] Proof: Many people can't even pronounce it

[2] I've bought two, different, new 3k bucks computers that never got the Bluetooth work with anything (yes, they run Windows).

[3] I have a 200 bucks Victron SmartShunt in my van to monitor my battery. Can't connect to it anymore with any device (yes, its Bluetooth). Will have to buy an expensive external display (at least that exists) and crawl on the floor to read it.
You read my rant this far? Congrats. Have a nice day :-)
Hope I can get better rates from this compared than those offered by Spotify to my musician friends. How much are we talking about? 0.00001¢ per licensed generated image?
/Nelson works for me every time.
There’s a line of thought that connects the use of leaded gasoline with US crime rates. [1]

The idea is that exposure to lead causes people to have problems that lead to violent behavior later in life. The evidence presented includes the correlation observed between the removal of lead from gasoline and a sharp fall in crime rates 20 years later.

1. https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposur...
For what it's worth, stations in London and bus shelters have similar maps for buses, showing a network.

https://content.tfl.gov.uk/bus-route-maps/fulham-and-putney-... (if you see this map, you will be at one of the red circles on the real bit of the map.)

Bus stops have similar maps showing only buses from that stop.

https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=178402&pag...
I don't see how "macroeconomic conditions" impacts Twitch viewership.

It's not selling anything to any consumer or business. If anything, people are watching more Twitch.
Java 20 Delivers Features for Projects Amber, Loom and Panama
I hope that this precedent applies to any and all countries waging illegal wars. This definitely should apply to US/UK/etc regarding the Iraq War.
> SVB is certainly not blameless here, but the Fed's money printer and the government's wildly excessive stimulus has to be one of the worst policy errors since the 2007/08 financial crisis.

It is other way round. Majority of issue is on SVB side. Feds are not charged with running SVB nor hedging their risks.
Symbolic links don't give me an easily obtainable list of all "copies" of that file, and while they might survive atomic writes, they're also vulnerable to the "main" file being renamed/moved/etc.

(Of course the thing that'd solve my actual root problem would be proper OS and file system level support for tagging, but until then it seems that there are only imperfect solutions, each with its own set of drawbacks.

I.e. third party software is not well integrated with the file explorer and the file open/save dialogues etc., and now I'm dependent on that software lest I lose all my carefully tagged data, whereas hard or symbolic link-based solutions are clunky to use and vulnerable to either atomic saves or file renaming etc.)
Can't see that as ever working.

There'd be no practical way to shield the vulnerable or the carers and beyond that if it's left to run rampant in the wider population eventually the medical system is overwhelmed and collapses.
We use antennas which are incredibly directional for Mars rovers. Compare a regular lightbulb vs a flashlight with a lens. Total light emitted might not be that different, but the intensity at the same distance (or how far the light reaches) is because the beam is focused. That works the same with receiving signal: a giant dish will focus the signal to a central point, and a Yagi-Uda antenna will use a similar phenomenom to focus the signal on a dipole.

Ofcourse car bluetooth presumably has an antenna that radiates roughly sphere-like, it wouldn’t make sense to pick up signals on the right of the car with a dish or something.

To that end, bigger antenna doesn’t do a whole lot to boost signal. There might be other factors at play increasing the reception though, such as signal polarity and whether the length of the antenna matches the frequency in a correct way (or is some multiplier of it). For Bluetooth that’d be roughly 13cm or 6.5 or so.
> it would just drive up the starting price.

And that is exactly the point! We want more realistic estimations, rather than void promises.
I’m amused by the wording, that a magician vanished.
The UI looks great, but I only get "Something went wrong, please try again." after a while waiting for the response :(
In my environment:

~/project% find -type d | wc -l
13946

I access files in a dozen or so folders in this hierarchy regularly, so fuzzy find is an extreme boost for me.
Wow, COM Structured Storage. That brings back memories, but not necessarily good ones. And as for working with OLE... ouch.
There are so many good reasons to carry keys. Why carry a yubikey, or a license for that matter? Because good security is about what you have, not just what you know. It's about authentication.

In the spirit of the present article, mechanical locks (especially for anything car related) are better. You can't hack into them. If you force or break them, you are forced to leave physical evidence behind that you did so. Not so for a Bluetooth or WiFi hack. This is why I will not enable my smart garage door opener. I don't even have pay by phone, because they offer an attack vector via NFC directly to my bank account. I carry credit cards instead.

Sure, carrying all those pieces of metal is annoying. I got a KeySmart to help mitigate this. I carry my car key in my wallet with my cards. It's worth it, and there are ways around the costs.