They have every query their users enter into Spotlight. They have all the results it returns (who cares if they originated from Google, ok maybe they do, maybe not using it for anything is part of their deal with Google). They have your contacts, calendars, messages, email, music, workout history, tasks, real time location, which Siri already uses to e.g. recommend a destination when you get in your car to a degree of accuracy that straight spooks me sometimes.

Apple has access to SUBSTANTIALLY more fine-grained personalized data than Google does. Full stop. That's a weird thing to assert in the tech crowd, but think about it deeply and you'll realize its true.

Google has islands of services that they've done an extremely good job of building bridges between. They have some islands that Apple has nothing like (YouTube is the biggest one) (Search is a huge island, but only indefensible if the interfaces customers use to access it don't leak the queries and results; no one opens a browser and types "www.google.com" on mobile and even if they did, Apple controls the browser renderer, they could lift everything if they wanted to, they won't, I'm simply illustrating how much Apple should fuckin scare Google). But the waters between those islands are patrolled by Samsung, Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo, and there's sharks in there as well (uh, the metaphor is falling apart, the sharks are "Google's tumultuous history with privacy and user blowback if they overstep").

Apple is a continent. Many of their cities are ports that connect to some of Google's islands, but Google's product still has to be checked by customs.

You're right that even given that power, hoovering it up is at-odds with Apple's philosophy. Or, is it? I think "hoovering it unencrypted to the cloud" definitely is; but that's the point OP was making: if we're extremely close, as a species, to solving "make AI work", one of the challenges for the next five years is inevitably going to be "make it more personal". Its awesome that I can ask ChatGPT to write a date comparison function. It'll also be awesome if I could ask Siri "when did sarah and I talk about getting a cat" or something.

That requires personalized data to set the context. If Apple can swing at the fences and say "everything is on-device, nothing leaves, we can't see it, and now you can ask Siri that, and by the way there's new functionality built-in to iOS that apps can leverage to integrate with Siri's new LLM capabilities just like ChatGPT plugins"; that's an extremely compelling product. Extremely. And I know they would ingest that data, that they would do that, because they already do! Go ask Siri to call Sarah, or if you have any meetings tomorrow (assuming you're using Apple Calendar), and it will respond. I don't know where you're getting this take that they don't "hoover data"; they ingest everything from all their first party apps into Siri's `DATA MATRIX`. Its just, you know, 2010s era querying and data crunching.

Don't get me wrong, Google's gonna do a lot of this too. But Google is playing from the position of "we have a model, we have the data, we just need to pay hundreds of millions of dollars a year maintaining all these servers". Apple is playing from the position "our customers are paying us for the silicon to run this, we have the data, we just have to figure out the model". If its not obvious at this point: the models/algorithms/etc are not a moat. They're going to be commoditized with time. Publicly accessible data isn't a moat. Personal data is a moat, because people care about privacy. And cost effective training and inference silicon is a moat, because its Physical, and like literally One Company on the planet makes it, and they're in a big time situationship with Tim Cook.