skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Haha yeah. I've been tossed resume with fifteen minutes notice and told "we need you to be one of the interviewers" when I had much less experience than that. Of course that was at small companies and I was one of the more experienced people there.
> Dutch bike >> MTB with comfort fittings > regular MTB > racing bike

I feel like you're missing one type, the 80s touring bike. The one that looks like a racing bike but with a longer wheelbase, mudguards, racks and thicker tyres.

It is more comfortable in the city than a racing bike, but also IMO better than a mountain bike with curved handlebars, thinner tyres and a lighter frame. They're also dirt cheap.
You live in a city bubble. I have three kids and live in a suburban town about 40km away from the nearest big city.
No way i can live without a car. I do have bikes and use them often to bring kids to school. But many friends and family are scattered arround the country. Many places i go to with my kids can only visited by car. And i find a car often very useful during a period of reconstruction of my house or garden. Or when i pick up big stuff from somewhere. Nah i couldnt live with out it
I did a fair amount of winter biking in Boston. Good clothes really help. For me wool socks really help.

You do tend to warm up when riding a bike (pedal assist bikes might take longer). For me the issue is fingers, but with good gloves and a less than 45 minutes ride for me it was be ok. Ice and wind are issues too. But taking it slow and my glasses help a bit. The snow when plowed makes the roads narrower which can be an issue.

I always wondered why there were so many outdoor stores in the City.
I wonder if we should be studying the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum to figure out what earht will be like in a ~100-200 years.
> Isn‘t the same statement true for car drivers?

In theory I agree with you, but in practice the behavioural differences are noticeable, at least in Cambridge.

One example (admittedly anecdata from somebody who spends a lot of time on the road using different modes of transport, including foot): lots of cyclists blow through red lights, (relatively speaking) very few car drivers do so. Of course, the stakes of a car driver blowing through a red light are arguably higher, so it's still not great.

What I'm contending against is not cycling as a mode of transport, but the assumption that with greater adoption of cycling comes greater safety. That's not what I see because of cultural issues (behaviour) surrouding cycling in this area. Possibly the accidents would be less severe, but there would still be plenty of accidents if everybody was cycling.

OTOH, and again it's small numbers/anecdata so take with a pinch of salt, but over 20 years in Cambridge I know more people who've been injured in cycling accidents that haven't involved motor vehicles, as those who've been injured in cycling accidents where motor vehicles have been involved. A couple of those people have blacked out even though wearing helmets because, e.g., their head hit the pavement. Causes of accidents are a bit of a mixed bag: road conditions aren't great around here (potholes, gravel on road, etc.)[0], one clipped by another cyclist on a cycle path (other cyclist didn't stop), etc.

I'm very pro-cycling but, as I say, from an empirical standpoint I'm not convinced it's necessarily that much safer. I'm sure there's data that, in some area or other, would prove me "wrong". But so much of it is down to cultural and behavioural issues, as well as cycling infrastructure and road quality, that I don't think it's valid to just forklift figures from one area and say, well, if everybody in Cambridge cycled we'd see X% fewer injuries from collisions on our roads. Unless other factors are taken into account it's very faulty reasoning.

[0] On the road conditions point, you're much more vulnerable on a bike than you would be in a car. If you're a driver and you hit a big pothole, you might damage your car, but you'll probably be OK. If you do the same on a bike you are much more likely to fall off and injure yourself.
> This is an odd minority viewpoint for HN actually. I find most people feel rather empowered by the decentralized nature of mastodon… or email for that matter.

Mastodon is decentralized at the protocol level. It's the opposite of that at the social level. The mob rule may be "decentralized", but it turns out it still sucks. Cross one extremist and get accused of being a bigot / -ist du jour, and them and their friend will run you out of town. No big deal, you say, you can always switch towns? Except no, because the extremists will follow and denounce you for your "bigotry" / -ism, and threaten to do the same to anyone willing to harbor you, and then no town will want you in, because none of them want to be cut off of everyone else. On the main subnet, it's every instance pointing a gun at every other one - even if most believe the common rules are extreme, no one trusts others enough to challenge them.

The irony is, this is basically rediscovering the lessons of past thousand years of civilization. Mastodon is the digital equivalent of a sea of towns afraid of their own people and other towns alike, due to roving parties of political officers executing criminals and wrongthinkers alike. Somewhere along the way people figured that rule of law, presumption of innocence, due process, proportionality of punishment, civilization, are nice things to have.

Anyway. Been there, done that, tried to enjoy it while pretending there is no problem, until the admin retired the instance. I don't feel like participating again. I'm off both Twitter and Mastodon. As much as I hate corporate ad-poisoned Internet, I do have to grant it that it's the more honest one - people will do bad things to each other in pursuit of ad revenue (or revenue in general), but at least they're not pretending too much. They're not bending their own minds past breaking point to feel OK with delivering mob punishment and signalling allegiance to not become targets themselves.
Ah, yes, “normies can’t code”. It’s not a polite thing to say, even if (somewhat) true, and it’s also not very useful, given they are the vast majority of people.
>I don’t understand how the so-called “ample reserves regime” works but I would argue, given current circumstances, that it does not provide for ample reserves.

The ample reserves regime is "banks keep a lot of reserves because the Fed started paying them interest on them, rather than keeping as little as possible because it was more profitable to lend interbank".

It is factually the case that it provides for ample reserves. I invite you to look at this time series: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTRESNS ... we can agree that $3tn is more than say $60bn, yes?

>From my read it appears that under the current regime banks can use 100% of depositor funds for leveraged speculation.

... no; because capital adequacy measurements (see the Basel Accords) are a thing, and control risk-taking much more than reserve ratios, which were more of a monetary policy control for short-term rates.

>I don’t understand the dog-whistle comment - seems dismissive without evidence. You claim that the move to zero reserves isn’t worth paying attention to but failed to explain how the new regime works or how it is safer for depositors.

People who are more-or-less clueless about the subject matter latch onto it, and draw inappropriate conclusions from it. If you want to claim that the Fed having zero reserve requirements is encouraging risk-taking from banks, you probably ought to have a theory of "why". It is nonetheless a popular soundbite from the "banks are out of control and the fox is guarding the hen-house" crowd.

The perspective that the Fed's reserve ratios are there to protect depositors is decades out-of-date and (to analogize with subject matter more familiar to most posters here) is about at the level of confusing Java with JavaScript.
It's not a brave face. The science tells us that we're on a better and improving track. It's not without hope. A decade ago we thought we were on track for 6C by the end of the century.

That said, it's still going to be worse than we all want it to be. Like many things, the truth lies in the middle and all we can do is push hard on the margins.
Said someone that has never lived across the street from a elevated subway, on a street with a streetcar or near a bus stop.
Sound business decisions.
Puts on whoever's not gonna be pair coding with LLMs.
Source? It doesn't look like a direct causal relationship has been proven thus far- the current (inconclusive) state of research is summed up here:
https://blog.dana-farber.org/insight/2015/12/does-cycling-in...
Really? wow, okay. Thank god I'm not part of this society.
I own Valve Index. State of the industry is not very bright. The best VR game so far is HL2 VR mod. Alyx the second. Looks like investors are pretty shy to put money in VR game studios to make big and story rich content.
How about this. Let's say historically 200 square meter houses costed 200k€ to build. But not enough people can afford that. Then you make a project where you count in the cost of materials but cut down cost of labor, price the house at 150k€ and say that there is a shortage of labor because you cannot find someone to build the house for the money you have available. You can even be realistic when saying that if you increased the price of the house you couldn't sell it. Maybe there just isn't enough people willing to pay for the house for the cost other people would be willing to build it for. Even if you managed to find people to work for the reduced pay you can just create a cheaper project and cut down on labor cost even more because now you sold to all the people who were willing to buy for 150k€. The "labor shortage" is basically guaranteed for any industry all the time. All it takes is for you to create a project fitting lower on the demand curve and cut down on labor since you can't really reduce price of materials.
I would add boots that are high enough that there is no gap between the rain pants and the shoe. An old pair of "hiking" boots did the job for me. Riding through a puddle and getting your socks even mildly wet feels terrible.
We could have saved the Earth but we were too damned cheap. ~Kurt Vonnegut
The trick is to build your towns and cities such that 15km is longer than most people would need to commute by bike, except perhaps as part of a bike->transit mixed-mode commute.

There are places with wintry weather that are good for biking! Oulu comes to mind

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-64354089

And as explored in this video, if the weather is too bad to bike safely in, it's probably too bad to drive safely in. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFkI3eglT1M
So basically big FAANG type companies are reverting the last year or two of hiring.
Thanks for your answer, but to be clear, I understand all that.

My question is what, specifically, the 1.5 degree budget signifies, and why it seems like there will be such a discontinuous amount of harmful effects if we blow past it. What is the significance of 1.5 vs 1 or 3?

Also, I'm not some sort of "climate skeptic" - I totally understand there will be severe negative consequences for continuing to pump carbon into the atmosphere. I'm just genuinely curious on why scientists landed on the 1.5 number.
The craze from 2019-2022 where "Learn to code" was parroted by everyone everywhere had to end somewhere.
Yes: Cambridge, UK.
800M is 10% of the current population - the OP's point is that if he's right, there's a non-trivial chance that he, and you, may be dead, making the prediction moot.

In terms of EV, it never pays to bet on the apocalypse since you can't collect. Markets can't price in their own demise. (it would actually be quite interesting if they could).

(Also, given how often people make predictions online, how often do you see people saying "mea culpa, I was totally wrong about that one!" It's close to zero. Guessing wrong, even in earnest, about important things, doesn't matter anymore, and doesn't pose even a minor threat to one's reputation. This lack of social/cultural corrective has made our zeitgeist is so remarkably polluted with utterly ignorant, bad faith BS like bets about the apocalypse that it doesn't even register any more. How fascinatingly horrible!)
If I like the site, I will consider paying for it. I already do pay for online services.

I am glad the ad model is dying. What a waste of resources that was!
I don't think what the OP is suggesting is necessarily a conspiracy. Institutions are wary of people who risk their credibility with claims that catch a lot of attention but may prove to be false. There's some incentive to make claims that capture a lot of attention and the field doesn't want to lose credibility.

If you think about how some scientists responded to speculation about Oumuamua you can see how they were nervous about speculation that could be sensationalized.
As someone who has TAed a wide variety of undergrad (mostly systems / OS) classes and mentored new-grad hires and interns, my observation is that universities are under tremendous pressure to prepare graduates with "go-to-market" skills, and deprioritize fundamental classes and concepts.

To put it this way: I'm just about a decade out from when I finished my BS degree, and my CS courses were (in order):

1. A SICP-based intro course using Scheme. I loved this course!

2. A data structures course using Java

3. A machine structures / light hardware design (just to understand pipelines, caching, etc) in C and assembly

4. Now pick whatever CS area you want to study

I mentored a new grad from my uni who is just graduated, so is 10 years younger than me roughly. This curriculum was changed to:

1. Same SICP-ish course, but using Python

2. Data structures was cut shorter to make room for ML

3. C++ course to build some kind of "distributed system" (but no discussion of the fundamentals of how the ABI works, for example)

I had to explain very basic things to this guy (e.g. what the stack was, basic gdb usage), who was otherwise very bright.

That's not to say "the kids these days are all dumb!", as I have TAed some classes where some of the students were far better hackers / coders than I was, but I just think the funnel towards skills and technology that have Proper Nouns that can be put on the resume is an unfortunate pressure being placed on universities these days.
What are AT1 bonds and why are Credit Suisse’s now worthless?
> That narrative started with how LLM authors write about LLMs.

Great point. Was oblivious to it but it is hard to ignore now.

Interesting discussion happening right now here:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35226364
Wouldn’t joules be more indicative of damage caused?
Ah I see! Might be US exclusive. Anyway the VPN solution works well in all countries.
I stole a colleagues lunch once on the first day of a new job. I was running out quick to go to the book store and grab a book at lunch (lol!) and I grabbed the brown bag thinking it was mine. While I was driving, I pulled the sandwich from the bag took a bite and realized it wasn't mine. I was mortified. I went back put the bag minus sandwich back in the fridge with a $20 apologizing profusely in a note.

The woman whose lunch I stole laughed it off and gave me back the money. I was ragged on for the entirety of my 5 years there for stealing that lunch.
What's the exact prompt?
You can dislike the fact flags are votes

But it doesn't change the fact that they are, mate :)
Found it;
“I Could Rewrite Curl” - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27220136
20 May 2021
I did exactly that. That does not teach you to write a good program. It shows you how to make a compiler in yacc and bison or whatever the current flavor is. A skill I have had need of very rarely. Most of the time you do not need to reinvent a whole grammar with parser to get your task done.

For new devs I take on. I stress good code structure, testing, regression, QA, path testing, logical layout of architecture, end user requirements and delivery of code. I assume fundamentals. If they are missing them I get them on projects where they would learn particular ones.
If climate models were predicting the temperature of your city on March 21, 2120 then your intuition here would be wise. But that is not at all what these models are predicting. They are predicting global average annual temperatures and other gross, planet-scale statistics.

"Average annual global temperature in a given year" and "temperature in my city tomorrow" are fundamentally very different types of predictions.

Often it is easier to accurately forecast gross dynamics on a long time frame than it is to forecast precise dynamics the exact same process over a short time frame.

You don't even need to understand the math or physics to see why this is intuitively true.

Consider e.g. predicting minutiae about the behavior of a fetus over the next week ("how many fist clenches", "how many kicks") vs. predicting which week the baby will be born -- the latter is substantially easier than the former despite the longer time frame.

Or, more to the point, consider forecasting the position of a particular cloud of molecules in a pot of water being bought to boil vs forecasting the temperature of the water in the pot in 5 minutes. The latter is hilariously trivial -- a small child can be taught how to do this with excellent accuracy. The former is some horrendously difficult phd level fluid mechanics and even then hard/impossible.

In some sense, an educated intuition is exactly the opposite of yours -- it'd be surprising if we were this good at extremely fine-grained weather prediction but couldn't guess the annualized average temperature of the entire system in 50 years. The latter is a much simpler statistic because the timescales and physical scales take a lot of the difficult stochasticity out of the forecasting problem.
Personally I call that perfect.

I found examples in the Minimal Design gallery that I would not choose to call minimal but I don't want to make an argument about form over function. Needless to say I like being able to easily navigate and locate what a website wants to communicate and having to scroll a lot I feel defeats that (I'm also cruisin' on an old Celeron at the moment).

Regardless this gallery doesn't appear to be going for minimal in function but minimal in form and for that I say it is a nice collection and there is some cool art and presentations here.
> It makes complete sense to optimize that.

Maybe? Like--define optimize. VC-chasing (alluded to by the great-grandparent poster elsewhere in-thread) is almost certainly less optimized from an EV perspective.

If it's one's dream, absolutely chase it--but it should not feel obligatory because you absolutely can have a lot of happiness now without precluding later happiness, too, if you so wish.
That makes sense, the excellent infrastructure in the Netherlands makes it a very pleasant place to drive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8RRE2rDw4k
And they're also apparently staying in San Francisco, too:

> The online discussion forum, which previously subleased 78,000 square feet of office space at 1455 Market Street, is planning to significantly reduce its footprint when it leaves the Mid-Market neighborhood later this year. The social media platform will soon move to a 47,000-square-foot space at 303 Second St. in SoMa, as the San Francisco Chronicle first reported.
I was accused of white-supremacism for questioning the mask.

I think that illustrates the way these things work pretty clearly.
Ther eality of research suppression is much more mundane, and illustrated well in "The Trouble with Physics" by Smolin. Basically with the way the tenure and granting systems work the only way to get a degree and a job is to work on whatever the leading scientists decide is correct, which is most often their own ideas. At that point anyone who wants to try another approach will be unable to get funding, because all the "leading" scientists don't think it is worth pursuing, and you won't be able to get letters of recommendation and endorsement as a Post-Doc because you aren't doing things that make your tenured boss look good.
It will still often tell you that it can do things that it can’t or vice versa, it’s like it’s guessing whether it might be able to do things or not based on what humans told it that it could do in the training process rather than actually being aware of its own capabilities
In Reykjavik they used sand at first because pedestrians prefer that but that is pretty dangerous for cycling so they use salt on designated cycling paths and sand everywhere else.
Literally just being drunk enough can end up in you being dead or maimed.

From a harm reduction perspective, Drunk Driving -> Drunk Bicycling feels like it reduces the capacity for damage roughly proportionally to Drunk Bicycling -> Drunk Walking. At a critical level, the speeds you can comfortably achieve are reduced at each step, thereby increasing the amount of reaction time available to avoid an incident, reducing the ramifications of an error, and reducing the amount of damage your body has the capacity to do (by nature of the amount of kinetic energy you are attempting to control).
Yep. Those who "work in tech" are in for a rude awakening.

Engineers, programmers, hackers on the other hand are gonna be just fine. Same as the past 50 years.
Exploring Lichess data on improvement using e4 vs. d4 and blitz vs. rapid
Ignore all these replies and just use ChatGPT-4. Super helpful at explaining things.
Well, there is line to be drawn between echo chamber and just keeping community on topic and it can be blurry one.

For example I wouldn't consider rule "no politics talk" to be echo chamber on any social space but banning/shadowbanning one kind of leaning vs the other would certainly lean to that.

Then again it is not as simple as some topics just produce people that cannot actually hold conversation about what they talk about and are more interested in throwing their piece and not trying to honestly discuss anything. The unkind extremisms can be banned without turning community into echo chamber even tho technically kicking the <person> having <view> would fall upon "banning one side of politics"

Or on the other side, would you consider post discussing BDSM kinks of some ballet person to be on-topic and belonging to ballet community ? Or who they gave money for political stuff ? Would those comments improve that community or just be off-topic waste of page space ?
More profit and happier shareholders. Can you imagine what apple could have achieved if they didn't force Steve Jobs out for a decade?
80% of the global population lives in a developing nation, keen on quick and dirty energy sources and a growing appetite for hyper consumerism and meat consumption.

The West is living in lala land with some of the proposed policy measures.

A popular one is implenting a carbon tax at the border which forces buyer and seller to internalize societal cost.

But this would result in redefined trading blocs, particularly with united developing nations. The other bloc (paying the border carbon tax) will enter a post-growth period due to slow and expensive trade
> why would they care? just pay them by task/result, not by hour and you don't need to care how much and when they work if they fulfill deadlines

No developer with any sense or dignity is going to work at a piece-rate. And honestly, it doesn't make much sense for an employer, either. Do you want all your productivity evaporating into a never-ending haggle over tasks and what happens when someone can't complete one for reasons outside his control?
From my limited knowledge and viewpoint, there is a generational divide, a regional divide, and a class divide. When everything is averaged though, the household income is still the strongest indicator of how many cars you own, and most national statistics prove it.