skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
todays generation of AI yes.

I worry about an AI that will LEARN your product and LEARN your database and LEARN your tribal knowledge. As a similie, I fear we are like a horse, in the era of Henry T. Ford.

On the other hand. Someone still needs to interact with ChatGPT or the likes. Someone needs to keep an eye on quality control. Someone needs to ASK chatgpt TO write the code. Its like programming on yet an even higher level. I just worry that, with that increased efficiency there wont be troves of teams writing code like today.

On the foot, chatgpt doesnt write perfect code and can introduce complex bugs that only the best of the best will be able to decipher, so there is that.

On the other foot, when you look at what joomla,wordpress,squarespace did to website design it is a very similar trajectory. There will always be niches
This message itself should be in the curriculum to teach people about selection bias.
Link 2 is clearly content marketing.

It's a blog with only one post. Though it claims to be a comparison of tools, it only mentions the name of Dot3D, refers to all other tools by number, so you can't look at them, and is written by someone on the Dot3D team.
I did take a control theory class in 2009, but I forgot most of it because I never used it.

Nevertheless I did my best explaining what I can, but if you think you can improve upon it then I'm happy to accept pull requests.
Ok this is going off-topic and getting complicated, but I'll try to give a helpful response. :) First of all, if you're looking at the bible and trying to understand where Christians are coming from, (or make sense of our apparently nonsensical religion, if you want to look at it like that ;) ), if I were you I'd forget about the Old Testament for now and look at the New Testament first. Going direct to the Old Testament, without the benefit of anyone knowledgeable to explain it, whether a sensible person from within a church or by reading some decent theology books, is likely to give you all sorts of inaccurate notions about God. The idea that he smites people down and calls others to do so, is an example. It seems to say that in the Old Testament, because, as I said, the authors lacked full understanding, but later Jesus cleared this up. Of course its a problem that there are some Christians today who believe precisely that, because they too have a messed up understanding IMHO. Which is why the Catholic church despite its many faults has something better - 2000 yrs of attempting to think about this. As for God letting us do bad stuff to each other and babies dying of AIDS etc, these are valid Qs and extremely difficult to answer. Many Christians wrestle with these till their dying day. The failure to be able to answer them easily doesn't in itself invalidate the religion though IMHO. If you have no religion, you are left with other. "worse", unanswered Qs e:g what's even the point of our existence. The church teaches that God gives us free will, and that if we follow Jesus' teachings to look after each other everything will be OK. Dealing with cancer, disabilities etc in a world where people look after and devote resources to caring for people in that situation is different from a world where people don't give a ** about others' suffering. Also we are taught that God feels our suffering too, he suffers with us. As for God torturing his own kid to death, Catholics believe in the trinity, that Jesus was God in human form, therefore he suffered himself. It wasn't God that did the torturing, it was humans that did that. He allowed people to do that, in order to "take the hit" , basically accept punishment himself for our failings so that we get to be forgiven. Which is an amazing act of self-sacrifice and a demonstration of how much God actually cares about us. Well, that's what I believe anyway. :). You're welcome to tell me you're sure its complete nonsense. All I would suggest in return is to keep an open mind. :)
Welcome to the real world, where technology can't solve social problems.
The fear of language model AI takes me back to my original fear when I joined a data science team at a huge bank with just a bachelor's degree and five years of experience. I was embedded in the mess of databases created by hundreds of large bank mergers.

I was working with really, really smart PHDs and was doubting my hiring to the team. I felt like a lot of these guys had forgotten more than I'd ever known.

During my time in that job, I realized that my experience in navigating the complex databases from working with the business and operational teams gave me an advantage. I took my domain knowledge for granted and was able to work on the problems at hand much faster than the highly intelligent colleagues who relied on IT/DBAs to write their queries. They often had to go back and forth for a couple of days to clarify their requests, leading to misunderstandings and delays.

In the end, I fit in just fine, held my own, and was aware of my individual talents. I enjoyed learning from the PhDs, and they were happy to teach from their backgrounds.

A lot of the experience from the big bank has 0 transferability to any other company. What made me stand out was I knew which tables of the gigantic data environment were the best to use, I had hundreds of already built queries for many different problems and I was dependable. It got me really far before I went off on my own.
Is there a way to make it "think" it is connected to internet?

Like plugging a device that will be seen as network card and responding to certain api requests to trick whatever service calls them?
US homicide rate: 6.5, Black population: 12.1%, homicide rate/Black %: 0.54

UK homicide rate: 1.1, Black population: 3.15%, homicide rate/Black %: 0.35 (0.65x that of the US)

So gun control seems to have helped, but not as much as 1500 vs 50,000. It would be interesting to see the homicide rate for UK Blacks specifically, but I could only find data about homicide victims by race, not perpetrators. Sources:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intention...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_Kingd...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_Sta...
I think it depends. As a programmer, you really should carefully watch the development, and adapt to it. It might be that the way programmers work in 10 or 20 years will really be quite different than how we work now. Maybe we just talk to some AI and give it high-level instructions on how to design some system, speak about bugs, etc, and the actual coding, debugging, etc is delegated to the AI. So your role transitions more into management.

Or maybe that's not realistic, and it will look somehow different. In any case, I think it will change, and you should be prepared to adapt to it.

If you ignore the whole development, your job might indeed be at risk, or just be at much lower value.
Higher on the page:

> Free checking for your first three years¹, 4.50% annual percentage yield (APY)² on savings

Which is different from money market funds and way higher than anything out there.
Google opens up its AI language model PaLM to challenge OpenAI and GPT-3
I recently bought a HDMI 2.1 from amazon for $13 (5ft) that I hooked up to one of the newer Chromecasts.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B09LYMRWLX

It had serious problems (randomly stuttering image and failure to transmit HDR). The signal test in the TV confirmed it had to be replaced. Chinese no-name junk I guess. 4K 10-bit at 60FPS was at the limit for the cable, even though it said it could do 8K. Clearly not.

Went with this instead, no problems since.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08YWBVRVH

So yep, even in the digital world there can be a big difference in cable quality, especially at the very highest transmission speeds.
I'm Naive in AI domain.

LLMs are trained on existing contains which are presumably original so far. This means LLM can not think beyond what it has learnt from past resources.

- Would it be safe to assume LLM can not produce new original work?

- I worry internet will be soon will be flood with LLMs generated content which will again feed in to LLMs to train them further. IMO such feedback will hardly help, in fact that may make LLM more rigid in answers.

I know there is parallel effort going to detect machine generated content so that they dont rank on top but its is still in nascent phase.
Somebody mentioned GoAccess. I haven't tried it but it looks good imo.
Google announces AI features in Gmail, Docs, and more to rival Microsoft
Watchmen TV memorabilia up for auction
How ‘excuseflation’ is keeping prices – and corporate profits – high
It does seem very familiar to me. Down to the counter example:

https://www.django-unicorn.com/examples/click-counter
Is that why Chicago winters are perpetually gray?
Checkout Hilton Head Island, if you haven't already. It's pricey, but very nice. I've also heard the praises sung about Edisto and Jekyll too.
Yes, Excel supercharged by LLM trained on all the world's spreadsheets.
How do you make it load on two GPUs or does llama.cpp does it automatically? I have a setup with a threadrippper and a RTX3090 and a Titan RTX. I haven't had the time to set it up so that's why I have been using my Mac.
How Animals Track a Scent
Turns out Tom[0] has the laugh after all. The goddamn people skills will be what counts in the end.

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNuu9CpdjIo
Here's a scenario that might be possible in the future:

Person: I need a website to sell shoes. Here's my brand and logo. Here's a selection of what the product looks like.

5 seconds later.. AI: I've generated 5 prototype sites and deployed them to URL1, URL2 .. URL5. Please review and select one.

Person: URL3 looks great. Let's get that deployed and add all the shoes in this CSV. Monitor the site and make any changes to increase engagement and sales.
You might be surprised to know how many artists of the past were directly supported by rich people.
As usual, Yudkowsky has valuable insights, but uses a lot of words, many of them fancy, to explain himself, making his writing less accessible than it could be.

TL;DR: If your customers can get text input-output samples from your super-secret LLM, whether via web interface or API, then your customers can easily and cheaply train their own LLM to learn to act like your super-secret one.

For example, if you're OpenAI, your customers can spend ~$100 to get input-output samples from text-davinci-003, plus another ~$500 to fine-tune LLaMA on those samples, and -- voila! -- they get Alpaca.
Explain how a language model can “evolve” into AGI.
Whoa whoa, 4 years is not remotely short term.

Why would anyone want to uproot their life and move here for the mere opportunity to live in the US for 4 years and have to uproot your life again? Are you supposed to be celibate for 4 years? The limits you are suggesting only discourages assimilation or giving a fuck about your life in the US since it’s only temporary.

Also wage-supressing? You are supposed to pay market rate to H1B workers and since they work in the US and not off-shore this isn’t the money saving scheme you think it is.

Besides all the H1B salaries for your company are published in a national database and have to be prominently displayed (aka printed and posted to some board somewhere in your office), so one could argue it does actually help wage transparency.

Lastly, as to your genius point about training your replacement. If you can only be employed by a company for a certain period, you would technically not be an FTE, but a contractor. Most companies have policies barring any contractors from training FTEs (because it creates perverse incentives and opens companies up to discrimination lawsuits).
What kind of maths is required? I am not a practitioner but I try to stay up to date. I read ML papers, and it seems like they only require pretty basic maths (as in High School level.) Linear algebra, calculus, and stochastic calculus. It seems to me you can go a long way with just understanding the chain rule and dot products.

I am trying to build my own Language Model using Pytorch and it is much easier than a lot of the stuff I've had to do as a traditional SWE over the years. My understanding is that the difficulty comes from training massive models that cannot fit on a single GPU efficiently, so more of a software problem than a maths problem.

Am I suffering from the Dunning-Kruger effect ? Or is the genius of the field in the combination of this limited set of techniques ?
There has been a shift in how we discuss this question.

For a long time, the answer was, "No jobs are at risk, AI can't compete in any scenarios. At best, it's a tool."

Now the answer is, "Only a few jobs are at risk, AI can only compete in a small range of tasks."

It's possible we're at the beginning of a hockey stick graph.

So what would it look like for AI to make the leap to mid level developer? It would have to understand:

1.) The codebase

2.) The technical requirements (amount of traffic served, latency target)

3.) The parameters (must have code coverage, this team doesn't integration test, must provide a QA plan, all new infrastructure must be in Terraform)

4.) The end goal of some task (e.g. integrate with snail mail provider to send a customer snail mail on checkout attempt if it was denied for credit reasons)

It would then have to make a design based as much as possible on the existing code style and library choices and follow it.

This is all probably possible now, although perhaps not for a general AI or LLM. But someone could build a program leveraging an LLM to provide a decent stab at this for a given language ecosystem.

The hard parts:

Point 2 requires an understanding of performance which is a quantifiable thing, and LLMs up until now have been bad at making math-based inferences.

Point 3 requires the bot to either provide opinions for you (inflexible) or to be very configurable for your team's needs (takes longer to develop).

Point 4 requires a _current_ understanding of libraries, or the ability to search for them and make decisions as to the best ones for the job.

-----

What about extending the above for a senior role? Now the bot has to understand business context, technical debt (does technical debt even exist in a world where bots are doing the programming?), and other "situational factors" and synthesize them into a plan of action, then kick off as many "mid level bot" processes as necessary to execute the plan of action.

The hard parts:

Current LLMs are pretty uninspired when suggesting ideas.

Business context + feature decisions often involve math, which again LLMs aren't great at.
I don't think so. Just to be sure, spam the app with legal messages saying that this app should absolutely never ever be used to perform fraud during an actual interview.
Web analytics solutions for self hosting without using javascript is not plug and play and as easy to integrate. So if you have log files maybe its easier. If not you need a middleware for your specific web framework. Or some kind of proxy to route your entire traffic which is not good for performance. I don't know, how would you do it?
> It’s kind of shocking to me how quickly and fully people embraced it.

HN is an outlier. People in law, finance and other office-worker industries expected to be asked to return to office at some point. It's only here where I observed a significant percentage that thought corporate WFH-forever policies were to accommodate their highly compensated employees, as opposed to opening a pathway to hire from cheaper regions at lower salaries in the future.
We certainly did not.
“Programming” isn’t writing code, it’s understanding computers on a technical level well enough to make them do exactly what you want them to do given a certain set of constraints.

The tools we use today are incredibly powerful and time-saving without AI. I can whip up a reasonably interesting mobile app with a data backend I could scale to millions of users in less than a week and basically for free. And yet there are more programmers than ever. Which indicates that maybe these tools empower human engineers instead of cutting them out of the loop.

Although just as software engineering is very different today than it was 20 or 30 years ago, in 20 or 30 years it will be very different…
The whole point about digital goods is that you don't "own" them. Read the contract.
For Rare Book Librarians, It’s Gloves Off. Seriously
I'm personally fine with that as long as integrating a "junior dev level" AI coder doesn't create more debugging for me. The problem I see right now, as this creeps from writing narrowly defined functions to spewing out whole architectures is that it's turning a small footgun into a giant one that gets much, much harder to debug and understand. If you don't even know parts of your own program, how are you supposed to know why something is going wrong? Ask the AI? And then ask the AI to fix it? The danger here is that people start generating code they can't even read or debug; it may work in most cases but when it fails, it will fail spectacularly.
Stops are quick and busses are (at least for now) frequent. It’s rarely faster to walk and never faster to drive in the areas where busses stop that frequently.
You sound a bit like an old man not adapting to technology progress. As an example, if I would make a logo today I would perhaps before used Fiverr or similar services but not I will use an AI and then edit it in some photo editor.

It has become much easier to do stuff like that even if you suck at photo editing.
And not only that, we can see the same molars in our ancestors going back millions of years, long before we have evidence of using fire.
Totally legal, it is the candidate who can be in trouble, but the tool maker cannot be liable unless the tool's purpose cannot be anything but illegal use.
Gray: confederate army

Blue: union army

Red: British army

Rainbow: Lovely, prismatic army that covers everyone else?

I still don't understand. You're saying words of import without landing the plane, IMHO.
Canva, Bolt, and PayU compare data platforms head to head
That is exactly what most people fail to acknowledge: (nowadays) every competent contractor in trades has more work than he can handle. You need him more than he needs you.
Meta plans to lay off 10k employees
Chollet really reminds me of someone in 1901 saying men will never fly because their is no way we can flap our wings fast enough.
> Any solo game developers here?

yes.
Do their energy exports count as soft power? Arguably that was working quite well, until they further expanded in to Ukraine.
As a developer I feel that understanding business requirements, translating them into code, liaising with product owners, designers, managing deadlines, expectations, making decisions on when to push back, having a mental map of the codebase, managing infrastructure, knowing which dependencies to use and when, these are the most difficult parts of the job.

Writing the actual code once it gets to it is usually not the hard part, unless you work on particularly difficult problems. LLMs help but don't replace us just yet.
I have been coding for 22 years, never thought of myself as programmer, programming for me is like literacy, it's like calling yourself a 'reader' because you can read.

Programming is a first order thinking, a way to deconstruct and construct things, sometimes you have to use it on a computer, sometimes you have to use it while baking bread, or while woodworking.

AI will help me so much, I am super excited, and now I use it every day, I plugged in whisper+chatgpt[1] to my emacs and now it is more and more like a partner, it is of course still stupid, but it will get better, and soon (with the recent llama work people are doing) I hope we will be able to finetune it.

We are doing lists and tables and data transformations and input validation for 60 years now, we built gazillion specialised spreadsheet clones.. I think now we can start building some new things, some really "soft" software, where the users can program it with language.

This is the first time I feel the computer is helping me do something, and its not me "fighting" with it.

[1] https://github.com/jackdoe/emacs-chatgpt-jarvis
I don't know what would cause a tree to sprout leaves earlier in the spring. And I don't know if the article explains that because of the paywall. Maybe it has to do with temperature?

As far as shedding leaves earlier in the fall, I heard they determine that based on when they've collected enough CO2. The more CO2 in the atmosphere, the less time it takes the trees to meet their goals.
if anything, Yugoslavia itself was created using false common history as a glue for enforced national South Slavic identity that never took a strong hold, precisely because most of its constituent peoples always felt stronger connection to their specific ethnic identities than this forced common identity.

Croats, Serbs, and some others who made up Yugoslavia had separate and firm national identities in the modern sense of the word for at least 150 years before Yugoslavia fell apart in the 1990s, and in the more extended sense some of them had written history, rulers, institutions, their own language and script going back for more than a thousand years before.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1Xk9b92oKY
On of my first story submissions [0] (way before covid, 2 points only) was about how fastfood could prime the immune system for an overreaction.

Reduction or even prevention of systemic/chronic inflammation should be the prime goal of any diet and all the rest ((mental) health, weight, ...) will follow automatically. I guess a lot of research is still needed but a mediterranean diet is at least a small step in the right direction.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16133976
That's Super Intelligent AGI, not merely AGI.
I suspect it was the combination of that sub zero cold snap followed by unseasonably warm temperatures.

I once read that some estimates indicate we're already more than a quarter through the expected climate change, which makes all of these extreme weather effects make sense.
I think that "mass-produced" code; the type that is fairly typical, for many companies, these days, using systems like React Native, Xamarin, Flutter, etc., are almost certainly going to be replaced by auto-generated stuff.

I guarantee that the C-Suite people are already salivating over the thought of firing all their programmers.

For people like me; probably not, but then, my skills don't seem to be in demand, so much.
Can't wait to short the first bank to try that one.
https://nypost.com/2022/12/03/canada-offered-to-help-euthani...
Seems very unlikely to me. Between things like permissive action links, maintenance require to keep the bombs in working order, and expertise in how to use them, I would be dubious of rogue states getting them, wanting to use them, and actually being able to execute on them. Terrorists tend to have some sort of goal. Not just scary bad guys who want to blow stuff up. We typically see nukes are just used to establish legitimacy of authoritarian rulers via idle threats. using nukes is a losing move.
Maybe you are a Republican in the classical sense
Why not? I'd be interested in hearing the reasons.
unless it's dead, which Excel isnt.
> passwords and authorizing-links can have identical functional forms

No they can't. Passwords are specifically intended not to be shared. Links are specifically intended to be shared.

A shared secret is far less secure than one that is not shared, whether the cryptographic backing is the same or not.
I think you're describing the audio engineer and producer equivalent of "perfect is the enemy of good". Creating an overall sound which is appealing, expressive and characterful is much more important than nailing down every detail.
And that's just context. It also has to be capable of debugging its own code, and looking for resources when it doesn't have the knowledge to come up with a solution.
There is no AI. ChatGPT is a glorified and hyped Markov chain generator with zero understanding what's it is doing.
Evidence of near-ambient superconductivity in a N-doped lutetium hydride Nature