skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
We’re rapidly approaching problems (AP Calculus BC, etc) that are in the same order of magnitude of difficulty as “design and implement a practical self-improving AI architecture”.

Endless glib comments in this thread. We don’t know when the above prompt leads to takeoff. It could be soon.
My friends in law school are telling me there's been an emergency pivot away from "take home" exams back to "in class" exams.
No, the robot will do that for them.
This in my opinion is the route.

Neurosciences are helping understand the brain better, but we don't much yet.

AI is developing more capability, while we are losing understanding of how it is working.

Convergence would happen at some point, where for a given feature/capability, we may have an equalish understanding of the brain and AI. Subsequently understanding of both may increase together.

This may rinse and repeat for more desirable features of the brain.

We may find that the brain does not have too much more to put into AI. What if the hard problem of consciousness is not actually is.
Functional Programming Is Based
They’re waiting for the legal ambiguity to resolve. It doesn’t make sense for a large company to be the first mover here. Let someone else handle the lawsuit regarding the liability of a model without guardrails.
Well, I might as well come out and say it - libertarian meritocracies are fun when you're a winner at being productive but it's not going to be long before we're all in the exact same position as hardline communist Starbucks baristas with liberal arts PhDs.

People tend to choose their beliefs based on what benefits them, and although I don't think dialectical materialism is true in its originally stated form, I do think a great deal of the dialogue we see is ultimately material.
> The implications for society? We better up our game.

If only the horses had worked harder, we would never have gotten cars and trains.
70 billion of liquidity is though.
This is a pretty tautological headline. I could put any bank name there and it would likely be true given the events of the past 7 days
How many in the US, and how many with desirable advertiser demographics. Selling reverse mortgage and pharmaceutical ads to boomer audiences turns you into television, where--at some point--the audience is going to pass on and leave it behind.
I see what you are saying but engagements are not a matter of speed only either, you have restrictions and opsec requirements that prohibit you from automating certain things. If you have a decent EDR for example, even if you can evade the NGAV component,at least one of the commands LinPEAS runs will trigger an alert if the process execution alone is logged.
No, it's like having a computer that's already in the shutdown sequence and somebody puts a magical button in front of you and says if you press this it's going to turn the computer off. Then when you press it nothing changes because the computer is already shutting down waiting for the processes to stop.
Are you going to sit here and pretend that centralized marketplaces aren't how the vast majority of people deal with crypto?
Prices differences with the last models:

ChatGPT API $0.002 per 1k tokens
gpt-4 $0.03 per 1k prompt tokens and $0.06 per 1k completion tokens
gpt-4 32k context $0.06 per 1k prompt tokens and $0.12 per 1k completion tokens

Does completion tokens mean that you also get charged for the answers that the AI gives?
My experience has been that the answers are very convincing, but not necessarily true. I would be careful asking gpt questions about abstract knowledge, less about linguistic structure.
Thanks for sharing this.

Quantitative finance really is a fascinating field, not because it will make you rich, but because you can dive much deeper into understand exactly what the market believes about the probability of different events.

Of course what the market believes doesn't have to be correct, but nonetheless very interesting to dive into.
I like the accuracy score question on a philosophical level: If we assume absolute determinism - meaning that if you have complete knowledge of all things in the present universe and true randomness doesn't exist - then yes. Given a certain goal, there would be a knowable, perfect series of steps to advance you towards that goal and any other series of steps would have an accuracy score < 100%.

But having absolute knowledge of the present universe is much easier to do within the constrains of a chessboard than in the actual universe.
I'm very excited for the future wave of confidently incorrect people powered by ChatGPT.
The only robust human content verification methods I’ve heard of are interrogating the content creator afterwards to see if they can adequately explain what they wrote.
Even on ChatGPT Plus, it is using an old model text-davinci-002 as it says in the URL. The answers don't match what they should be for GPT-4 either.

False advertising. They got my money already unfortunately as I was hoping to Try it, as it says with this link next to today's date.
Some people are sexually aroused by feet. How would YOU define "porn?"
This technique is simple, doesn't reinvent the wheel, and even has it's own name: Bernstein chaining.

http://www.catb.org/~esr/writings/taoup/html/ch06s06.html
Public teachers and other bureaucrats are probably some of the last roles to be replaced.
If any objective competence or system efficiency in general was the goal, the system would look vastly different.

Efficiency seeking players will adopt this quickly but self-sustaining bureaucracy has avoided most modernization successfully over the past 30 years - so why not also AI.
When you plot graphs that present a 4% point difference as a visual 100% or 200% difference because your axis starts at 50 and ends at 58, I automatically don’t read what you have to say.
You are correct and also wrong concurrently due to it being such a large organization with fingers in too many kitchens to be responsible.

They have done good work in certain fields and are not the only game in town. Are the other agencies any better? My experience is a big phat NOPE same porn-set-relationship-odor in the business for my taste. There are minors in munis that stick to being legit, but ratings are ephemeral the moment they're published anyway.

Funny you don't mention AIG and how nobody there went to jail. I even know of one guy who back-dated securities to help out a buddy. Using taxpayer money. The industry is rife for a 70% pay haircut so real people can do real work in the real world. Finance itself shouldn't be an industry, it's a service.

It's hard for me to take anything seriously which is why I prefer the barter system and being an outlaw from society and only dropping in when I need. All of this is a sad, broken joke with no viable paths upward. Not yet at least.
This strikes me as kind of ironic -- you'd think a language model would do better on questions like essay prompts and multiple choice reading comprehension questions regarding passages than it would in calculations. I wonder if there are more details about these benchmarks somewhere, so we can see what's actually happening in these cases.
ITT: de rigeur goalpost wrangling about AGI

AGI is a distraction.

The immediate problems are elsewhere: increasing agency and augmented intelligence are all that is needed to cause profound disequilibrium.

There are already clear and in-the-wild applications for surveillance, disinformation, data fabrication, impersonation... every kind of criminal activity.

Something to fear before AGI is domestic, state, or inter-state terrorism in novel domains.

A joke in my circles the last 72 hours? Bank Runs as a Service. Every piece exists today to produce reasonably convincing video and voice impersonations of panicked VC and dump them on now-unmanaged Twitter and TikTok.

If God-forbid it should ever come to cyberwarfare between China and US, control of TikTok is a mighty weapon.
I think this is more of a hiring or leadership problem. The information that is exchanged is not sensitive to the format of the conversation... specs, bugs, design issues can all be addressed in any type of communication. To think otherwise is in my opinion adding unnecessary layers to engineering, and this is typical for large organizations because they want a lot more than just completing deliverable work. They don't just want your expertise, they want your loyalty... work, eat, laugh, breathe with the team, and become a part of the company like it's an extended family.

Then they do 10K layoffs. So I don't think it's unreasonable to question why management and leaders want everyone back in the office. The underlying incentive is something like employee loyalty, except this doesn't go both ways.
The idea that I’m choosing not to work is asinine, accusatory and completely incorrect.

That you can’t empathise is much more telling of your own sociopathy and not an indictment of my existence.

I can be very productive, but I think its obvious to everyone with a brain that if you throw someone (anyone) into an environment where they are constantly on edge then they will not be able to deliver on focused work.
Then you aren't getting the concept.

This isn't equity funding for a business idea. It's basically buying a claim on a bank in receivership. It doesn't matter if that claim is held by nextbigthing.com or Apple. Those claims are backed by SVB's portfolio of T-bonds and MBS so they are very solid. The benefit to users is acceleration of receipt and certainty. It's hardly a lark.

The OP was planning to target this offering to startups, which are only fraction of SVB's depositor base.

Someone saw their community in distress and thought to use their connections to put together a solution, for a modest profit. Sounds fine to me.
Unless I missed it, only example in the blog:

“So if you’re a manager onboarding a new employee, Workspace saves you the time and effort involved in writing that first welcome email.”

Some great announcements, could have given more pertinent examples. You save your time elsewhere using AI tools, so you spend time with your valuable newcomer.
I don't disagree with a single thing in the OP.
Dear AI gods, all I want for this Christmas is this.
As others mentioned here, the contemporaneous audience may be unaware of that era's lack of many conventions which are more or less assumed nowadays, including for conflicts/wars, so mentioning (unbiasedly) the brutality of a given interaction may paint a clearer picture, which is (or should be) the point of these articles. And as the time goes on and we distance ourselves from memorable conflicts, that may be increasingly more necessary if less and less of the audience would assume it by default.

Regarding the difference in the level of war brutality that the involved parties experienced in history, one notable example comes to mind - mongols. I have yet to encounter someone willing to argue that the suffering that medieval mongols inflicted in their campaign was comparable to that of their opponents.
Mammoth mountain is on track to have a record breaking year of snow fall.

In San Diego its basically sf weather this winter. Highs are rarely above 60, lows even in the high 30s, the water is mid 50s,and it seems to be rain like once a week.
I for one am glad the US banking system roped in the Germans and brought the entire global system down too just so we didn't have to eat our own shit alone.
When I was young, vhs and crt were going to replace teachers. It didn't happen.

I work in math for the first year of the university in Argentina. We have non mandatory take home exercises in each class. If I waste 10 minutes writing them down in the blackboard instead of handing photocopies, I get like the double of answers by students. It's important that they write the answers and I can comment them, because otherwise they get to the midterms and can't write the answers correctly or they are just wrong and didn't notice. So I waste those 10 minutes. Humans are weird and for some task they like another human.
Transfer the A.I. in the F-16 to MQ-9 and time the middle management's and project management's reaction time during actual conflict.
Honestly this is not very surprising. Standardised testing is... well, standardised. You have huge model that learns the textual patterns in hundreds of thousands of test question/answer pairs. It would be surprising if it didn't perform as well as a human student with orders of magnitude less memory.

You can see the limitations by comparing e.g. a memorisation-based test (AP History) with one that actually needs abstraction and reasoning (AP Physics).
I faved the "new" URL and keep refreshing the site in one if the 50+ tabs on my mobile browser, whenever I feel bored.

No app, no client, no whatsever. That's one news site among lots others and not worth setting up a read-flow around.

if one's so into news, Bloomberg terminal 24k/y, msy be a proper client. But not for me.

Why the question?
I mean I could just play VR Chat.
Well, yeah. It's a LLM, it's not reasoning about anything.
You just kind of concatenate the entire codebase into one file, tell the model to do something and output the modified codebase into another file, diff the two and produce a patch automatically.
I'm jokingly describing the situation where Putin was the first to condolence the US after 9/11 ( for personal gain).

But was hurt in his ego because of Iraq, since it was in/near the self-claimed Russian sphere of influence and he wasn't aware until it started.

Relations between the US and Russia deteriorated after that.

He's been planning "revenge" for the next 20 years => the reference to little guys...
GPT-4 Technical Report [pdf]
It's not that they were holding bad assets, it's that they put too much money into assets that took too long to mature. They were betting that they wouldn't need that money sooner than that, and that's the bet they lost.
Along with Lynis
Spending decisions aren't always made by penny-pinchers. Sometimes it's inertia, not disrupting the status quo, dance with who brung ya, avoiding work, a hundred reasons why groups of people transition from a free plan to a paid plan with the same company over time if the company hasn't given them a sudden, dramatic, stressful reminder that they need to shop around and always be ready to switch to whoever gives them the best deal.

Docker wants to be a sticky default, not a commodity that has to compete with ECR and GCR on cost and features.
>Crypto: Going from banking the unbanked to unbanking the banked!

To be more accurate...

Crypto: Going from banking the unbanked to centralized entities attempting to unbank the newly unbankable!
The purpose of having property deeds represented as NFTs on a blockchain is not to eliminate the need for a governing body, but to make the ownership transparent, trivially verifiable, and easy to transfer. I've outlined this many times in this thread at this point. In the event, that a valid copy of off-chain data could not be recovered, then the governing body could use a longer and more manual process to identify the rightful owner and mint a new NFT.
Life and chess are not the same. I would argue that this is showing a fault in standardized testing. It’s like asking humans to do square roots in an era of calculators. We will still need people who know how to judge the accuracy of calculated roots, but the job of calculating a square root becomes a calculator’s job. The upending of industries is a plausibility that needs serious discussion. But human life is not a min-maxed zero-sum game like chess is. Things will change, and life will go on.

To address your specific comments:

> What are the implications for society when general thinking, reading, and writing becomes like Chess?

This is a profound and important question. I do think that by “general thinking” you mean “general reasoning”.

> What happens when ALL of our decisions can be assigned an accuracy score?

This requires a system where all human’s decisions are optimized against a unified goal (or small set of goals). I don’t think we’ll agree on those goals any time soon.
This recent trend of blaming the fires on the people who sounded alarms is really bizarre. The "bank runs" were caused by the banks being bad at their jobs, not by those who noticed it and said something. If Moody's has a share of the blame, it's because they said too little too late, not too much.
Can you describe this little more? I'm not sure exactly what this means.
If you don't know the subject, how can you be sure what it's telling you is true? Do you vet what ChatGPT tells you with other sources?

I don't really know Typescript, so I've been using it a lot to supplement my learning, but I find it really hard to accept any of its answers that aren't straight code examples I can test.
From the Fed. At the expense of anyone holding dollars worldwide.
Although GPT-4 scores excellently in tests involving crystallized intelligence, it still struggles with tests requiring fluid intelligence like competitive programming (Codeforces), Leetcode (hard), and AMC. (Developers and mathematicians are still needed for now).

I think we will probably get (non-physical) AGI when the models can solve these as well. The implications of AGI might be much bigger than the loss of knowledge worker jobs.

Remember what happened to the chimps when a smarter-than-chimpanzee species multiplied and dominated the world.
We can, this process is called "learning".
Right - it should be a negative symbol that a former regulator with no applicable banking experience is on your board, not a positive one. 20% of the banks deposit base was withdrawn o Friday. I'm guessing the FDIC had a much better view into the bank's health than a bunch of random commenters.
Russian jet collides with US drone over the Black Sea
I'd really like to use the openai API for personal projects, but it seems they only offer paying via credit/debit card. Don't really want to get one just for that... :-(
I’d bet they pass images through a porn filter prior to even giving GPT-4 a chance to screw that up…
An AI trained on the past work of diagnosticians doesn't really render diagnosticians obsolete.
> 2) Lobby to get TikTok banned

This happened in India, though it is not clear if it was Meta who lobbied or combination of other factors.
Totally, there's no way they removed all the prep material as well when they were trying to address the "contamination" issue with these standardized tests:

> for each exam we run a variant with these questions removed and report the lower score of the two.

I think even with all that test prep material, which is surely helping the model get a higher score, the high scores are still pretty impressive.
Insolvent only in a technical sense; if you could have valued their government bonds at face value rather than market value, they had plenty of money.
I'm a "highly-motivated dropout" and I accumulated a few certs in a previous life because my employer paid for it and it was for areas in which I already had some knowledge (mid-level CompTIA stuff, Agile, AWS). I'd typically buy the book, read through it in week or two and highlight it to shore up my weaknesses, take notes, then do the test. I never once failed via this method. As it turns out, however, this is a very niche approach. The vast majority of my peers looking to get such certs would go to a "bootcamp" and spend months memorizing test banks compiled by third parties.

There's a gulf of difference between somebody that gets a cert to validate/enhance their knowledge and somebody that does so to get a piece of paper. The amount of people that fall into the latter category seems to dwarf those in the former as an industry has been built around prepping under-experienced people for these certifications in the hopes of advancing their career.

This is all to say that the sentiment expressed in this article is unfortunately largely correct. I've since let all of mine lapse because the employers I now work for value demonstrable technical acumen over something that somebody likely bulldozed their way through four years ago and requires $200 annually to renew.
> Never rewrite your code from scratch, ever!

Is this really a common sentiment?

When it comes to rewriting others' code, it's prudent to keep in mind that it's naturally harder to understand code written by someone else. Just because you're confused in the first five minutes of looking at something doesn't mean it's an unsalvagable spaghetti. It's too easy to underestimate the time and cost of a rewrite and confuse your lack of knowledge for a fault in the codebase. Of course sometimes a rewrite is still appropriate after that consideration.

If it's your own code then you probably have a better judgement than anyone whether it's in need of a rewrite.

Doesn't everybody tend to rewrite major components of something in its early states? Though I find as I gain experience over the years I have to rewrite/"draft" code less and less.
Unclear what's the size but from price ($0.12/1k completion tokens) seems 6x GPT-3, so perhaps 1T parameters...
>When humans eat animals to get their replacement calories for walking to work...

Yeah, if I am hungry after a walk I throw a steak in the frying pan. /s

Energy for extra activity comes out of carbs and fats. Moderate level activity like walking does not increase the need for expensive food with protein in it.
I presume it hasn’t been trained on OpenAI’s latest web site text.
> it takes money from an insurance fund that all the borrowers in your family have been paying into all along for exactly this purpose

My family has also been paying into that insurance fund and the same thing happened to my family the very next day but all the money in the insurance fund is used up now. I also just learned that the family who received all the funds have been sliding gifts and bribes to the insurance fund managers this whole time.
> a file called constants.go where random strings are defined far away from where they're use

Wouldn't that be the purpose of such a file? One central location to adjust what some magic number is - then reference it (via eg lsp autocompletion) were used?
And also walking is not required for AGI.
From the paper

> We tested GPT-4 on a diverse set of benchmarks, including simulating exams that were originally designed for humans.3 We did no specific training for these exams. A minority of the problems in the exams were seen by the model during training; for each exam we run a variant with these questions
removed and report the lower score of the two. We believe the results to be representative. For further details on contamination (methodology and per-exam statistics), see Appendix C.
'Duolingo Max is a new subscription tier above Super Duolingo...'

I don't think this is going to enthuse anyone who's already regretting subscribing to your video game?
Taiwan unveils its new combat and surveillance drones as China threat grows
Last week, I was contacted by recruiters from two separate high-profile companies that have recently fired people. Like I would even entertain joining them only to be first in line to the chopping block.
That would be the hack I mentioned, yes. "Normal" users would never do this.
Only tangentially related, check out their website if you haven't previously: https://www.signatureny.com/

For a bank with $100B+ in assets, that's a seriously amateur looking site.
> Also, this is a 2nd round barely 6 months after the first and it's going to happen over months. This will be great for morale and will likely only cause your A players (who are probably still very much in demand) to look elsewhere.

That may be the plan. There are two benefits of this: more than 10000 people leave your company, but you don’t have to pay severance to them. And second, A players are compensated well and a layoff forces you to pay them hefty severances. If you think your A players do not contribute as much as they are getting paid, this is a way to push them out without paying that extra cash.
Not sure which programming language you are using. For Java, I find Spring JDBC templates with Row Mappers more productive than ORMs. DataClassRowMapper will automatically populate the domain entity.