skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
I think the interesting thing here is the very, very surprising result that LLMs would be capable of abstracting the things in the second to last paragraph from the described experiences of amalgamated written human data.

It's the thing most people even in this thread don't seem to realize has emerged in research in the past year.

Give a Markov chain a lot of text about fishing and it will tell you about fish. Give GPT a lot of text about fishing and it turns out that it will probably learn how to fish.

World model representations are occuring in GPT. And people really need to start realizing there's already published research demonstrating that, as it goes a long way to explaining why the multimodal parts work.
1-5 years:

White collar:
significant disruption for the go-with-the-flow majority but opportunity for the inquisitive and enterprising.

Blue collar:
Pressure on employment from incoming from the above.

5-10 years:

Significant ingress into low-skill blue-collar trades by AI as physical capabilities (accelerated by current tech) increase. Socio-cultural consternation as the caring, sex and other "human" professions are disrupted.

10-20 years:

Campaigns for AI rights, which the current AI ethicists forgot about in their rush to get us to a robot slave society. Slothful, unemployed masses turn against the elites controlling AI who turn the latter into police and armies for protection.

20+ years:

Only human jobs left are in John Connor's rebel army.
People will generate the dataset using AI tools too, you can create garbage with or without AI, you can create useful data with or without AI.
Is it still a 1/5th of the cost if you have to factor in storage?
The situation may be analogous in Sweden. Building nuclear reactors was a huge part of the right-wing parties campaign. They even promised to start construction 100 days after they won the election. Unsurprisingly that promise fell through. No private companies have been willing to invest in nuclear and, thankfully, the government has not yet decided to plow hundreds of billions of taxpayer money into new reactors.

Imo it's all culture war populism. Renewable energy and saving the planet is for little girls, nuclear power and driving fossil fuel cars is for real men or something.
I see it playing out well for onboarding. It can interview your customer and put the information in a database. Sort of like branching forms that change and evolve as you give it info, but more complex.
jeaff said:

> Insolvent is when your current liabilities exceed the current market value of your assets.

If I have a bank, and it's solvent (by jeaff's definition), and then it faces $42 billion in withdrawals in one day, then it's still solvent by jeaff's definition. It may be illiquid (unable to come up with $42 billion in cash in 24 hours), but the assets still exceed the liabilities. (Or, they might not even have been illiquid, if they could sell the assets at full price within a day.)

So, no, your argument does not disprove jeaff's definition.
Yeah, we disagree pretty fundamentally.

Our perception of the physical world is itself an evolved construct. The wider thing that perception is fitting is something I don’t think we can fit a machine to. I think we can only fit it to the construct.

I get where you’re coming from/appreciate the argument, and you may be right, but I‘ve come to appreciate the ubiquity of hidden context more and more/lean that way.
The "Self-experimentation in medicine" page has a lot of wild stories that I recommend reading: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-experimentation_in_medici...
Are you familiar with what is called "the drunkards walk" Because if you think stochastic inputs will not unfortunately admit of less benign paths being taken inside the dataset.. I think you're probably wrong.

I have very little doubt the primary problem in the GPT<x> model is going to remain: it is capable of reproducing highly believable crap. In a world of pizzagate, that has a risk of becoming highly weighted "I told you so" and self-reinforcing.
Some country subreddits are also starting to go in this direction. Lots of extreme opinions.

But that's nothing. Most hobby subreddits are becoming Instagram feeds thanks to the new design and the mobile app.

And professional subreddits are becoming a weird mix of people wanting to start in the field asking the same basic questions over and over, and people only really answering the basic question while simultaneously complaining about a "lack of depth" in the discussions.

This is why you see so people saying "there are good communities!" but they never tell which ones are good. God forbid more people join them.
What's interesting about AI-generated books? Apart from their novelty factor
That might have been to jump on the fashionable wave virtue signalling wave. No longer needed anymore
Then GTFO, as Blind would say.

(TC is total compensation, it's a meme on Blind to mention what one's TC is when talking about working at a company. Those that don't are told to GTFO. Interestingly enough, the salary sharing is quite beneficial to employees on Blind, since it incentivizes salaries to go up.)
Thank you, a view of consciousness based in reality, not with a bleary-eyed religious or mystical outlook.

Something which oddly seems to be in shorter supply than I'd imagine in this forum.

There's lots of fingers-in-ears denial about what these models say about the (non special) nature of human cognition.

Odd when it seems like common sense, even pre-LLM, that our brains do some cool stuff, but it's all just probabilistic sparks following reinforcement too.
I had ChatGPT write the "Privacy Policy" and "Terms of Service" pages on my website. I guess it took the job of the person I would have hired to write them.
some sort of thing about the community I guess. I feel the same way, I'll catch myself trying to argue with people here occasionally, then be like, wait, this isn't reddit, nevermind.

I think maybe it's not just about writing content directly in response to someone else, but writing response that I think will be useful to the community who stumbles across and reads it? Not that I'm always perfect about that.

Either that, or HN strips emojis. Might be that.
Porcelain people that shatters at the minimum problem crying rivers of drama are not prepared to do this kind of work for sure. They should be selling cosmetics, playing sad piano tunes or picking strawberries instead. The clichés described here shouldn't be doing this kind of job or trying to find a cure for lethal diseases.

But the fact beyond this caricature is that most of the women and men that work in a lab never develop a phobia towards blood, accept that dealing with death is part of the life, and don't have problems or "emotional tools" with the idea of breeding animals.
as the kids say these days: you need to touch grass my dude :)
After a few hours I am now getting the error message "Failed to parse page JSON data: expected value at line 2 column 1" (I use libreddit so it might be different for you). I wonder what is going on over there.
> You can probably extend this to "Never get the first word."

Amen. From about 1999 to ~2010, I was a practitioner of "don't wait up: somebody's wrong on the internet."

It gradually dawned on me that it was better for my mental health if I just avoided arguments as much as possible. I'm not perfect about it, but I rarely get into pissing matches these days.
Why ignore it when I can remove a toxic element entirely?
I use Duolingo, but only free. They've given me free access to their super tier twice now for a few days or a week each time.

I assume at some point they'll do the same to try to give me a taste of this new product and maybe it'll be good?

Either way I'll wait and see for a free option. I understand your skepticism. But I hope it ends up being a fun (and importantly: effective!) new way to learn.
CSS Art: Motorola Razr V3i
A "realistic" drawing of a Motorola RAZR flip phone done in HTML and CSS. Responsive and interactive (screen will go to sleep after 10 seconds, and wake up after pressing a button.)
Grid scale failures of some kind happen in existing fossil based infrastructure more often, but they are usually far less serious, outside of the nonsense which happened in Texas at least, you don't hear about people being without heating for weeks. If you do not have a backup for all that wind then you could have periods of weeks or months with not enough power.
As far as I can tell, ChatGPT plus is the 8096 tokens version. The 30k token version is only available via API. I might misread it tho, it's not super clear on their site.

Are you sure you are accessing the 30k token version via ChatGPT plus?
Because nuclear doesn’t require the development of extra storage on the grid, so ends up being cheaper in majority of locations.
If you know of any other cool examples or would like us to try something out and add to the repo, please let us know.

If you have access, the repo should be fairly replicable.
Genocide
It is actually hilarious. People would rather wait for Facebook, Instagram, Reddit, Twitter, etc to get back online than to sign up to another alternative social network.

It means that the network effect is still present on the site such that it is not worth it for existing users to migrate and start from zero again to a lesser known platform with low discoverability or little to no activity. Especially one with a significantly weaker network effect.

It would have to take more than just outages to damage the network effect of these social networks. Hence why alternatives like Mastodon, didn't take off as many here thought.
Because peak demand exists.

Renewables are cheaper and safer than nuclear power, that much is undeniable. The problem they do have is that their generation is sporadic. Until we solve the energy storage problem, there has to be something else on the grid that can be always online always delivering enough power to meet peak demand.
It makes sense on Wikipedia. But meanwhile, Reddit seems powered by anecdotes but will ask for a source when you bring opposition. Motte and Bailey.
If you have local logs and you’re not in an enterprise environment it makes sense to analyse the logs locally.
Withdrawals turned them from "insolvent under a technical rule" to "actually insolvent". That's kind of why they were insolvent under the technical rule - because withdrawals could make them actually insolvent.
> I must have missed the part when it started doing anything algorithmically.

Yeah.

"Why Can GPT Learn In-Context? Language Models Secretly Perform Gradient Descent as Meta-Optimizers"

https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.10559

@dang there's something weird about this URL in HN. It has 35 points but no discussion (I guess because the original submission is too old and never got any traction or something)
I didn't know that, but it almost makes me trust their service more. While I don't share their views, I do think technologically capable extremists are probably who I'd most want behind a service that I use as a layer for anonymity and privacy from everyone including government agencies.
Is it conceivable that ChatGPT could review itself and produce a superior revision to a human?
GPT4 got 5s on the ap calc tests. ChatGPT was getting 1s. Won't be long until LLMs are doing upper level undergrad math.
It's weird that it's so geographic. Is something pulling young women east? Or something pulling young men west?
A few years ago the general opinion was still that artists were going to be safe from being replaced by AI for the longest time compared to other jobs. Today I think it is valid to say that artists were among the first people to get a direct feel for how much an entire occupation can be stirred up by AI.

The time span is just a few short years and our predictions were already off by so much. There is no telling where we will be five years from now, let alone 20 or even further beyond.

That being said, I think you're right in that it is a turning point, and that there is a great deal of changes needed for us to adopt to what's ahead of us. The best way I can describe my take is that we will have a lot of growing up to do as a society. Lots of the systems that our modern world is built on are very fragile. We've rediscovered that during the lockdowns. The biggest ones to worry about being politics and the general political climate, the news cycle and how we deal with information. If we can't figure those out soon we will drown in an ocean of AI content where any semblance of truth is lost.

What I think we need is politicians that aren't stuck in time 30, 40 or 50 years in the past, that understand the world we live in today and can move accordingly. The information age hasn't caught up with the powers that be. At the pace that AI is moving, and the pace that politics is moving, what I think will happen is a trial by fire. Tech will move faster than the world around it can, and we will get burned before things get better. What exactly that will look like, who knows?
Can you do with without resorting to analogy? Anyone can take two things and say they're different and then say that's two other things that are different. But how?
I feel like Reddit is more read heavy and Twitter is more write heavy. If you're trying to read Reddit and it's down, you'll probably go read it some other time (/r/all doesn't change that frequently). If you're trying to tweet news or something, there is no way to do that when Twitter is down.
> the amount the cashier's check is made out for has to be available at that local branch (or, whichever branch issues it). And, well, local branches I guess don't usually have $1M cash lying around. Or, if they do, its not enough to cover other business activities for the day so they're not willing to part with it.

I guess a flight to New York is worth it.
Verging off-topic, but is there a specific reason that so many of the replies to the tweet are applying the argument analogously to index-fund investing?

I'm not even sure whether the spirit of those replies is mostly to criticise the argument by showing it is absurd (on the premise that index investing is a known good choice), or whether they aim to criticise index investing itself (on the premise that the argument is good).

Maybe I am missing some context. Has Paul Graham strongly supported index funds, and so are these replies some kind of "gotcha"? Or is there some general disdain for index funds in some circles, and so are they just taking the opportunity to disparage the value of index funds by using this argument?
There has been more near misses in the nuclear industry than tsunamis. After Fukushima about all plants in the west had to install independent core cooling because the regulators realized the risk was systemic, even though the cause was special.

A nuclear reactor in Sweden had a severe incident in 2006 when many of the "defense in depth" layers had been accidentally removed through freak occurrences and upgrades.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forsmark_Nuclear_Power_Plant#J...
This is the same for me but with Basque. People have been campaigning to get a course published for years now, with volunteers willing to help, but for whatever reason they refuse; which is a shame as from a linguistic point of view it is a very rare and interesting language and culture and would help people in Spain a lot in my opinion.
Were are you from?

I'm not debating the reasons Putin thought this was a good idea. My problem is with this narrative that Putin had his hands tied (by NATO) to invade. Because it implies that:

- Ukraine has no agency

- in the 21st century, it is still acceptable to attempt wars of conquest

- Russia cannot survive as a state without an allied Ukraine (as if being a Gas station with nukes can be threatened in any way)

- Russia has no imperial ambitions - LOL (did I mention 13 invasions of my homeland? The last of which took 14 years for the Red Army to leave, featured mass deportations and ethnic 'readjustments' and ended with ~50 years of communism)

- 'the west' should do nothing to help Ukraine as to not piss off the Russians (as of course, they're already pissed off, I mean look at them, they started a war! Better not piss them off further!)

Crimea is a great point. That's where NATO and 'the west' failed and where I agree in hindsight that they're responsible. That was the line that should not have been crossed. When Putin said he doesn't know who the 'the green men' were and he lied they weren't state actors, that's when 'the west' should have sent a peacekeeping mission to figure out who the 'green men' were, right then and there. Allowing the russians to take Crimea in 2014 is what created 2022.

The trend I'm seeing is the edgy 14 yo sounding contrarians who think that condemning Russia is too mainstream and boring. So, there's definitely more to it, right? Proxy wars, conspiracies, western coups, russia is cornered by 'the west' and has no other option, etc.. It's all part of the regular 'firehose of bullshit' which is a Soviet tactic to influence discourse away from reality. The boring tragic and stupid reality of an old school invasion driven by an insane authoritarian with WW1 trenchlines and WW2 soviet tactics of sending meat into the grinder until the enemy submits.
I'd argue this code is so old that it probably bears little resemblance to current Reddit. I know this was used by right wingers when they made that alternative Trump Reddit. That Reddit was awesome (minus the actual content) because it took me back in time to the "good ol days" of Reddit.

I really want to see the current algorithms being used in the codebase. The rest is just shitty code written by overpaid monkeys.
"I can't tell if we're struggling because we're less competent or more corrupt..."

It is obviously corruption. All project "management" was turned over to private consultants. The longer the project drag out, the more money they earn. Failure is its own reward.

This is why there have been so many "questionable" decisions. All those pergolas, trenches, moving entire highways, building aerials through Bakersfield seem like batshit insane decisions -- until you realize who profits from all this.
Statues are not a race.
I've been following the work on MathPrompter (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.05398.pdf) for example. These approaches certainly increase the quality of basic results but without a true semantic model of mathematics we're a looooooong way from replacing a computer algebra system.
Canceling third party clients and the antics, as well as the bad management of Musk is what people drives away from Twitter not the reliability.
Perhaps people are too young or too old to remember the Fail Whale before Twitter got reliable =)
Hydrogen is just as much of a pipe dream IMO. Producing, compressing is all very inefficient and it leaks through its tanks quickly. Which is a real big problem not only because of the energy wasted but because it's a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2 is!

The bet on buying natural gas was a bad one for the environment for the start obviously, no matter whom we bought it from.
So, anyone want to talk about guitar pedals in here?
This was the place I reached. I'm not concerned about "stealing", exactly, but I don't want to contribute to this technology.

I think my days of sharing things freely on the web are over.
The police take their orders from the local upper caste leaders.
I fear similar, tech work will regress back to the domain of being led by those wealthy enough to be credentialled.

Arguably the two month React bootcamp to $200k web dev pipeline was kinda trite, as well, but I much prefer the social mobility it offers than CS jobs being limited to a small subset of those rich or studious enough to hack through Galois theory.
Exciting thought!
From what I've seen, the EU is not in the business of swallowing these types of pills. A multi-billion dollar fine? Sure. Letting a business dictate the terms of users' privacy just "because"? Not so much, thank god.
"Total compensation" which is valley-speak for what you get paid plus what you make from stock and other forms of compensation.

This is one of the big things you'll run into in the valley: folks who value that extra $150-250k of compensation every year vs proximity to friends+family, work/life balance, etc.

If the folks I work with are any indication, the extra money is what you'll tell yourself you'll spend one day while you blow the best years of your life grinding away at work. This is how you end up one of those weird, 60+, friendless engineers living in, I don't know, Las Vegas, driving a supercar and married to a foreign woman who only loves you for your money. But there are folks who will argue that that is a great life and if you want to work with them, the valley is there for you!
At what kind of company? Looking from outside and in particular from outside the US the whole FAANG culture seems very strange. There is - or was - a huge amount of money available in compensation that seems almost completely disconnected from the value of an individual developer's contribution to the business or the level of useful skills and experience the developer has. And it seems there's this kind of clique effect where those who have worked in a FAANG or a high-profile startup are assumed by others who have worked at FAANGs or high-profile startups to be somehow better than everyone else. But IME once you're outside that bubble a more likely assumption is that ex-FAANG people will demand more than they're worth and won't necessarily be any more competent or productive than anyone else. And ex-multiple-FAANGs with rapid job hopping at the start of a career is a huge red flag.
Even a minimal amount of curation - e.g. generating multiple options and choosing the "best" one, or applying a filter where you don't post some of the generated data because it's bad - results in valid, usable training data, because the distribution of that slightly curated data differs from the generating model's distribution in exactly the direction which the curating human found most important.

So even if we all do use AI, the training data will get generated unless we don't get involved at all and AI does literally everything 100% solely on its own, at which point we could concede that it probably doesn't need any more training data.