skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
If startup equity is worthless then that will usually mean the VCs make no return on their investment.

If VCs make no return on their investment then they have just dumped millions of dollars into the pockets of startup employees and vendors.
The kind I got were Derby Extra [1], and it looks like I was wrong about using up half of them over 3 years. I only used 1/4 (one-half of two packs), which comes to only a little over $1 per year.

They've been great for me, and have been the first and only brand of double-edged safety razor blades I've tried, so I have no point of comparison with other brands.

[1] - https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0032Q41LS
This article is blog spam.

Lots more available from Axios & others:

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.axios.com%2Fpro%2F...

https://beautymatter.com/articles/bankruptcy-may-be-in-birch...
https://twitter.com/itsurboyevan/status/1634603869752766471

This thread was in January: https://twitter.com/RagingVentures/status/161582608803847373...
It appears to be scraping HTML pages.

https://github.com/yashsinghcodes/wik/blob/main/wik/info.py#...
> When was the last time you went over their deposit base and asset allocation

Sweep account and credit rating. First is a one-time option. Second, an occasional check.
There’s a video. No need for anyone to retcon.
This reminds me of when a nascent car company in the U.S. that wanted to build specialist police cars thought it was a great idea to have a big gold diamond as their logo and grille badge. Renault called, and the U.S. company had to ditch it all. No sign of that failed entity, probably for a variety of reasons.
I agree there are a lot of poorly thought out populist arguments for not making depositors whole. I for one prefer HN to not converge into another social forum like Reddit that has a lack of critical thinking in discussions.
But Moral Hazard seems more like a risk of Deposit Insurance overall, rather than just unlimited insurance?

Also it's not like FDIC is granted automatically, couldn't there just be much more strict capital requirement and risk limits in exchange for a higher protection?
> This is a pure panic run on the bank though, irrational and counter-productive. The bank was not insolvent and could have been fine if everyone didn't withdraw all at once.

This is incorrect. SVB converted deposits to risky paper that lost value. They were insolvent.

The fact that the risky paper would return its promised 1%/yr, if everyone just waited 10 years, is a canard. SVB's depositors could get 4% elsewhere, today. Asking them to sit tight at 1% is the same haircut as liquidating that paper at a loss today (which is what happened).
This appears to be the case - the JPMorgan analyst is (paraphrasing) saying that if you did a fire sale on all of the assets of the banks in isolation the difference between their capital ratios (the amount that they have to have on hand to meet depositors) is minimal. Notice that of all of the banks in the fifth chart the blue line and the bronze line are nearly even - except for SIVB, which has no bronze line. That's not good. I can't speak to this person's methodology, but if what he is saying is true there's almost no risk of contagion in the broader banking sector. And if that's true then there's $152 billion dollars of VC capital that's going to evaporate Monday morning.

It should be noted that JPMorgan participated in the bailout in 2008, with the resulting headaches that that entailed, and Dimon has explicitly stated that he wouldn't participate in a current bailout. So JPMorgan may not be entirely objective. However, to my eyes, this appears rather clear.
My preference is for spare markup where at all possible. Less typing, less mental overhead, clearer source text.

If it's necessary to be explicit for clarity and proper rendering, then sure. But otherwise, the less friction the better.

After years of procrastinating in learning LaTeX (the Lion Book turned out to be a clear, delightful, and highly useful reference), one of the pleasant surprises was that paragraphs are simply denoted by two carriage returns. After years of hand-coding HTML where matching <p> and </p> tags (among many others) was a constant occupational hazard, this was just ... pleasing.

Markdown has a similar philosophy, if a far more restricted set of capabilities. That set is however sufficient for a tremendous number documents, and if it's ultimately insufficient still remains a useful way to get started with writing.
Do you understand how crap SIVB's books were? 50%+ held to maturity? Long dated 10Y and 30Y bonds? A complete lack of a Risk Officer from April 2022 through January 2023?

Given how utterly terribly SIVB was run, I'm not exactly expecting a major issue come Monday. I'm looking at the books of like Ally Bank, and they're way better. https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000040729/f4eb406...

----------

If there are other banks as poorly run as SIVB, they probably do deserve to collapse. But I also don't expect there to be many banks with that level of stupidity.

At Silicon Valley Bank, we're basically looking at a bank, whose Risks were completely slept on during the entire period of the fastest rising federal funds rate in the last half-century. (Or really, the position of Chief Risk Officer was vacant for this entire period). I assume the other banks had better risk management.
On reflection, one wonders why all bank deposits don't have insurance.

I'm guessing the answer is: something something make more profit...

E.g. my businesses are required to carry liability insurance. I have to do that because we have big company customers who made it a condition of doing business with them. So why do big companies hand $nB over to another company for safe keeping but not require insurance?
> $250k comes out of taxpayer coffers Monday morning

This isn't coming out of taxpayer coffers. FDIC insurance premiums are paid by the banks.
I just interviewed a developer for a senior level front end position and they couldn't print a 2d array to the console. They apparently worked on a large web application and wrote typescript everyday.

What I've known for years, I'm finally seeing first hand: There are way too many people out there that should never have been engineers in the first place.

This is a rebalancing. Those who are competent will always be hired. Those who are are not, the jig is up.
I recently visited Elektro in Mansfield. My dad went to the 1939 World's Fair but does not remember seeing the robot.
There is nothing lucky about his pull. When you are super rich you get access to highly restricted network. You will know people and have access to them directly that ordinary peasants like us cant. He most likely have been warned months ago. And his own ai tech can piece together how reliable his warnings are.
Yeah, the moment I saw a photo of the "courtyard" my reaction went from "clever modern solution" to "what a bleak place to live"...
How many people are actually parking their money at a bank to earn high interest? My guess is for most, the safety deposit box is their bank account.
Leaving aside whether I'd want that as a young professional with a good job, I'd argue that there is a difference between a college dorm or a shared house situation and sharing facilities with a bunch of completely random people over which you have zero control.

ADDED: And it's almost certainly a fantasy to think that shared amenities and residents would be young professional friendly rather than being more in line with those who rent SROs today. (Although as the article notes, these conversions are expensive--so they almost have to be luxury apartments--rather than SROs with shared facilities.)
>If you want to help you should try to ease nerves if anything.

Why would Thiel want to "help"? The bank literally put customer's deposits at risk.
Police state
Imagine thinking "the movie wasn't just a collection of pre-packaged memes to share on twitter like all other major movies nowadays" is a good criticism.
Bank runs start with FUD. That’s how it works.
Best HN comment of the week, thanks for being awesome :)
Why is Apple so reluctant for the offline Mac?
I just use commas or parens.
Exactly! The rabbit hole of determinism just goes deeper and deeper, the closer we look. Kind of turtles all the way down...
“We didn’t know that we were dropping MREs on Wagner, and we definitely didn’t know that we were dropping explosive MREs.”

Eventually it will just sound too absurd to be taken seriously.

Hopefully.
1. Executives of SVB receiving bonuses.

2. Depositors that withdrew their money 100%.

3. Depositors that will fall under FDIC and made whole by this.

4. Depositors that will receive X% of deposits (likely under 100%)

5. Debt and equity with SVB

6. American taxpayer.

OK, I think every possible permutation of who owes who money has been explained in this thread.

I personally would like to see a legal mechanism where group 2 owes group 4 money. Not sure how that would work, but it would definitely give no one an incentive to run on a bank ever again if we could figure it out.
It's more like free public attractions like national parks. In real life they are paid by taxpayers which are in turn paid by estate taxes and income taxes by local residents.
demonizing short sellers is nonsense. They help markets correct and they lessen the damage of a crash by slowing the velocity of the drop
The lesson is to mitigate this risk with insurance, account structures and other things.

I think the lesson is also don’t bank with banks doing shady, dumb things. And that’s a valuable lesson that people with over $250k should already know and not need to be taught.
Go back in time a year. Hedge interest rate risk when buying low yield long duration bonds intended to be held until maturity. Accept that this offsets income generated, but the bank will still be solvent in a year.
Hence "_or_ caloric intake". The reality of my statement remains. Dairy products are an exception in e.g. Asian children's diets. Most Asian countries view the west's level of dairy consumption as gorging.
In 2016, we asked an actual IP lawyer the other question that has been fervently debated of late, “does the IP status of the training data taint the weights?”

He said “we have no idea, and we won’t until someone with a boatload of cash burns it in a lawsuit.”

So we might find out soon!
I also produce more electricity than I use with solar panels (including heat) and drive an ev less than 2500 miles a year… so I’m an extreme case. This isn’t realistic for everyone because of how the world is built, but the hardest part was saving for the upfront investment (I’ll start generating profit from solar once I’m 7 years in, probably less now because I haven’t recalculated faster than expected inflation).

While not everyone can manage this due to upfront costs, a lot more people could do this, but simply don’t.
That doesn't answer the question. Why does the government need to underwrite the risk you assume for convenience? And "everybody does it" isn't an excuse, it just makes the prospect of the government doing so all the more expensive to the taxpayer.
Agree that for individuals they are great! But for companies with more than 250k in cash, I would think that the incentives to keep your treasury "safe" would drive you toward banks that you believe are too big to fail?
> people won’t make payroll, and employees who have no responsibility won’t get paid

This gets repeated over and over, but just like depositors have the highest priority to a failed bank's assets, so do employees of any failed company.

So, if a company goes bankrupt because it can't access funds stored with a bank, first stockholders would get wiped out, then debt holders, and only then employees (when talking about salaries already owed - of course, the company can fire staff to try to avoid bankruptcy).
Fire safety I can see; health benefits sound like a rather dubious claim.
I had to work in Arnhem once, but I chose to live in Nijmegen. If I timed it right I could do 10 minutes on the bike, 12 minutes by train and another 10 minutes by bike again. Most commutes were 40 minutes all up, which I found pretty workable. I didn't want the hassle of owning a car.
This is rather silly explanation of what happend, especially from JP Morgan...

Everyone who have ever managed bond portfolio knows that he must hedge interest rate risk. And every bank is doing that. SVB didn't.

Since April 2022 till January 2023 SVB had vacant position of Credit Risk Officer.. And the explanation is simple - SVB's former head of risk, Laura Izurieta had left after 1Q2022 when looses from bond portfolio started to grow. She has probably already realized the final outcome as this is ABC of risk management (and in April 2022 the path of rate increases had been already set in motion by FED).

Now look at the timing of insiders selling shares of SVB...
There were newsletters saying SVB was insolvent in January.
How much wiggle room is there with weights? Tweak a single weight, is that copyright infringement or a new weight set?
> not their current market value if sold at fire-sale prices

Fire sale means the selling of the assets pushes their value down. This is not that. It’s insolvency; the assets were and are worth less than their book value.

> stability of the US banking infrastructure

Speaking anecdotally, New York is surprised and the Bay Area scared. This is a local problem. Not a systemic one.
The amount of coordination / bank reconciliation / overhead that would add is absolutely not worth it. It’s completely normal to have $10M+ in cash in a checking account for these companies, if I need to make payroll of $500k twice per month + pay vendors, accounts will necessarily have much more than the FDIC limit.

I could find 40 community banks and shift funds around constantly or I could just put it all in JPM and actually worry about running my business.
I'm so naïve, I hadn't even considered ads. These apartments could have multiple revenue streams. Imagine if the ads were something really innocuous, like slow TV to promote travel.
In the US, typically the bank is closed Friday afternoon and depositors have access to their insured money Monday morning.

In this case, depositors lost access to their money in the middle of Friday morning and will have access to their insurances deposits Monday morning.

So a very brief outage in the typical case. And about five or so extra hours in the SVB case. An FDIC takeover is efficient and well oiled.
But if they panic, bank will go down.
It can be marketing and accurate at the same time. I.E. conduct an honest analysis and then decide to share it only if it reflects positively on you.
You realize that there are 2.7 million software developers in the US? Outside of the HN bubble, most are “dark matter developers”.
I'm OK with some regulated advertising. I'm not OK with ad companies wanting to know my life story.

Ad companies claim if I don't give up to them every bit of my life what I do, say, eat, work,leisure, my location, etc. then I'm the problem?! I'm ruining the Internet! Companies will fail!

Show me your damn ad and move on. I'm not looking for a relationship.
This is a marketing piece the same way an engineering blog post is a marketing piece. It demonstrates expertise and helps influence others. I can think of two audience members:

* Those with cash in SVB, or another regional bank, and want to find a 'safer' bank.

* The relatively uniformed that are nervous about banking.
SVB didn’t collapse because of the bank run. There was a bank run because they collapsed. It is true that the bank run may have accelerated the collapse slightly but they were in really bad shape before it started.

A lot of people want to blame depositor panic, but I don’t think that is really fair. In a properly managed bank, the assets exceed the liabilities, which means that if people want their money out, the bank can liquidate their assets to pay them and still have money left over. SVB’s assets are worth far less than their liabilities (to the tune of nearly $100B dollars by some estimates). Panicking depositors didn’t cause that.
There is also the problem that even the tinyiest writing or video produced in a garage by an individual is now covered in advertisements, sponsoring and hidden or not product placement.
> Which any framework will give you, because being out of sync with your state means that your app is broken; and it is the purpose of any framework in existence to help you prevent your app from breaking.

That is common now yes and I think that is a good think. Uncommon techniques, now, like storing data in the DOM, uncareful jquery usage, and I am sure other techniques can deny/break a pure functional relationship.

The above is mostly historically why it is important and was not universal. How it ties into what schwartzworld said is that in react you ensure that the UI is a (pure) function of the state by default, no additional work. In signals you have to make sure to opt in every piece of state into reactivity. So I read schwartzworld's argument is that it is easier to keep(?) or at least produce the positive property of keeping the UI a pure function of the state with react than it is with signals because you do not have to do the work of opting in each piece of the state to reactivity.
I can't find any information about the API/website pricing differences on Cloudflare's website, but I'd like to know more - do you have a link or know where I should look?
The only truly viable deposit insurance is from the government, because they can print money

What good is private insurance from an insurance company if they go insolvent because of massive numbers of bank failures

So, now the answer to your question is a political one: are we willing as a society and government to potentially put that much taxpayer money at risk. I think it's a perfectly valid discussion to have, but it's one we haven't had yet, and one we refuse to have until the shit has hit the fan
Selling SVB deposits at this time is very likely a huge mistake.

Anyone considering this should first research how bank failures are handled. Start with the FDIC statement for starters: https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23016.html. Research how prior failures have been handled.

Very likely the FDIC will make a large fraction of uninsured deposits available very quickly. This will very support payroll and operations for most. It will dole out the remainder over weeks and months as it winds down SVB's assets. It will be a huge hassle but deposits will flow back. In the end there may be some loss, but not huge.

The losses may force some companies to raise more equity sooner than they would like. Companies with large cash requirements in the next months may have a problem.

Right now anyone selling deposits at a large haircut is locking in a loss they probably don't need to take.

There are many people screaming that the sky is falling. It is not.

Why people, particularly tech community leaders, are exaggerating the consequences is not to the point here. I think it were better that they were urging calm and careful working of the problem, precisely to avoid panicked mistakes like this, but they are not. Do not take predictions of disaster at face value.

Very sorry for anyone forced to deal with this mess but I very much believe that the vast majority will find it manageable. Take some time before doing anything hasty here.
Why would you believe anything he says?
https://twitter.com/RagingVentures/status/161582608803847373...
> So the risk to workers' livelihoods is being way overblown

If this were 2015 I would agree. But it's 2023 and thousands of software engineers are already struggling to find work after layoffs. Companies shutting down en masse because of SVB will soften what is already an employer's market for talent.

This may hurt specific founders and VCs a lot, but total damages (in the form of a softer market for engineers) may hurt the average employee more, even if they aren't directly affected.
actually i kinda love that . punctuation is semi arbitrary anyway . and this is actually much easier to read than the usual literary english full of semicolons and dashes . mimics speech much better too .
That would essentially be the government giving money away, since those bills are worth less than face value if sold now.

If that is done, you can imagine many others wanting access to the same deal.
So they used Google sheets instead of a smart contract to manage payments? Ok..
> At 100 km most of the atmosphere (99.9999%) is below you. 100 km also marks the Karman Line (shown in the main graphic), generally considered the “official” start of outer space. Above this altitude aerodynamic flight is no longer possible. Wings are useless. Only rocket thrusters and gravity can affect your motion.

I would like to nitpick here a bit.

100km is just "administrative" end of atmosphere. The atmosphere does not really have an end. If there are any hard, measurable boundaries it would be where solar winds meet our atmosphere (kinda like discussion about when did Voyagers leave Solar system). But this boundary does not have defined shape, moves a lot due to solar wind or Earth magnetic field situation.

And we do actually use our atmosphere above 100km to "affect motion". We place satellites in LEO well above 100km to assure they will eventually fall to Earth.

And anybody who played KSP knows how useful it is to skim the atmosphere for aerocapture...
You get your last paycheck, sure, but you still lose your job which is definitely a threat to workers lively hoods.

It's even more of a threat if the whole sector you're employed in suffers simultaneously, as it becomes difficult to continue to be employed in that sector.
Grocery store is definitely not viable - the profit margins are already among the lowest in retail and don't leave much room to drop. Movie theaters just need to be able to pay for the building and electricity and to clean up once in a while though (food and drink could be handled by outside vendors renting space to set up). Seems doable in a large enough metro.
I have no inside information on SVB or their depositors, and no prior experience with managing a bank run. (I also have no exposure to SVB, nor do I have any stock market positions that may be affected by it.)

If you want my motivation for discussing it all day: I’m curious, it’s an interesting and fast-moving puzzle that a lot of smart people are discussing. If you want my qualifications for offering so many specific assertions: I’ve read the primary sources and it just doesn’t seem like it would fix or prevent this the way other people assume it would. If in my enthusiasm I’ve oversold myself as an expert, I apologize unreservedly.
There's no mention of facial recognition or even webcam usage in the link. Yeah, it'd be gross if they were doing this, but... they aren't? It sounds like barely more than a chat app. What makes you think the app is using facial recognition?
Bank runs have been around, but social media and easy money transfers are much more recent.

The U.S. has two major foreign powers and a noisy subset of its own elite who would like to see economic chaos right now, and it's never been easier to do that.
My experience is that powered ventilation (especially when controlled by a humidistat for a bath or timer for a kitchen) is more effective than opening a passive window.

The power is not out frequently enough in the US to be a detectable contributor to mold risk.
Where do you propose a company with millions in cash keep that money if not a bank?
Also in Portugal, just use parenthesis (like when you would insert an idea into a sentence) and it still reads fine.
Hence he wrote:

> (laws of physics would be have to be different obviously)
I use an FDIC-insured bank. My deposits are under the limit for insurance. I don’t care about its deposit base or asset allocation because that’s the point of deposit insurance: to make retail depositors feel secure.

On the other hand, a CFO with millions in cash is a professional whose job is to manage corporate risk. A competent CFO needs to account for things like bank failures, which do happen.