skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
The obvious solution is to wait until series are done before watching them, if lack of narrative closure upsets more than watching with everyone else excites you. E.g
one of these days I might get around to The Wire or Breaking Bad, but probably not Lost or Game of Thrones or Twin Peaks, because I'm aware people were annoyed at how they ended. On the other hand I'm perfectly happy with seasons 1-3 of The Office or season 1 of Stranger things, or Season 1 of Severance even though it was a total life hanger, so it's not impossible to make something that's good even if it's not clear how long it'll run.
> The genius of Fox News was "why spend money on buying political attack ads when you can just buy the network and run them all day long."

No, that's a misunderstanding. What Fox News cares about is growing and maintaining an audience because that's what profitable. In pursuit of that profit, Fox News will foster its community however it can.

And so, driven by profit seeking, Fox News has embraced total nihilism. Fox News will spin any narrative, tell any lie, invent any fiction if it thinks it is what its audience wants to hear. The more Fox News offers its audience comforting fictions, no matter how untrue, the better for the bottom line.

You don't have to believe me on that. It's what Fox News says of itself:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/03/08/tucker-car...

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/fox-news-d...
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

Note all the months since July 2022. It's good to read the source material rather than hyperventilating news articles.
>It's not that the assets are illiquid -- it's that they insufficient.

You are confusing price today with the actual characteristics of the instrument.

A T-bill pays back it's face value always, it just trades below face when interest rates are higher than when it was purchased.

That is the definition of a liquidity problem. You'll get the face value back eventually (it is sufficient), but not if you sell today.

A liquid market is not the only characteristic of liquidity. There's a liquid market for anything at a low enough price...

>If depositors held their money at SVB for 20 years and SVB didn't have a bank run right now, SVB would still be in trouble: SVB would be paying more interest on those deposits than they would receive on their investments, and their portfolio would slowly go negative.

This is a true statement people are making that has nothing to do with what happened here. The point of a bank is interest rate arbitrage, so I agree SVB would have to do their job better over those 20 years, but this thing that happened over 3 months is a liquidity crisis. They weren't running out of money to pay interest on deposits, they were running out of money to give those deposits back and were veering into the problem discussed above - selling things below value to create liquidity.
pseudomonas is a very common urinary tract infection, along with e.coli and proteus, none of which commonly cause deaths. it is not particularly dangerous. using common sense and basic aseptic technique will keep you safe.

back when (early to late 70s) we did not use gloves at all, because they were uncomfortable - just washed our hands a lot. nobody ever died or got infected. before i joined, someone did die from the hepatitis virus. we were not a virology lab, but we did do immunology, which is where the blood that caused the death came from - we did use gloves when dealing with that.

for the more dangerous organisms, such as mycobacterium tuberculosis, we used air extraction hoods.
And 30b:

Give me a basic recipe for easy spaghetti carbonara

Here is a basic recipe for spaghetti carbonara:

Ingredients: 1 lb spaghetti, 3 tbsp butter, 2 tbsp olive oil, 1/4 cup grated Parmesan cheese, 1 egg, 1/2 teaspoon salt, 1/4 teaspoon pepper, 1/2 cup chopped parsley, 1/2 pound bacon, 1 clove garlic, 1/4 cup heavy cream.

Directions: Cook spaghetti according to package directions; drain. Heat butter and oil in large skillet on medium heat. Add bacon; cook 4 minutes or until crisp. Remove from skillet. Add garlic to drippings in pan; sauté 1 minute. Stir in egg, salt, pepper, and parsley; stirring constantly. Add bacon and spaghetti; toss well. Sprinkle with cheese. Serves 4.
Good news is Wagner just opened up recruiting centers in Russian 42 cities.
I don't use Twitter. The Tweets I see when I click this link are 80% political shitflinging from one side of US politics (even the replies to each one are 100% one-sided), and 20% non-political. Why?
“only software”

facile and reductive.
Synchrony offers such high yields on savings because their big product is consumer credit cards, and even at 4% APY on savings accounts the spread to a 25% APR credit product, even factoring in risk, makes it extremely profitable to do so.

That's really the big reason why savings rates vary so much between banks, if you have a bunch of consumer credit lines then high savings rates make sense, if you have a bunch of lower fixed-rate collateralized loans then you can't get away with lowering your spread so much.
Sure, but then they'll just furlough or lay off everyone. So employees get one payroll paid out, but then they don't get anymore, and the company and all the economic activity it produces are gone too.
Yes, another way to think about this is that if you bought an .80 t-bill today it would have the return on investment equivalent to a 1.00 bill bought last year. That’s because the new t-bill has a much higher interest rate.

So in effect, as the fed raises interest rates, they are destroying the principle of every existing bond on the market. That’s a big problem for anyone owning bonds, especially if they are using them as collateral for leverage.
Appears to be 2020, from a cursory Google search.

https://money.stackexchange.com/questions/129772/has-anyone-...

The oft quoted 'nobody has lost money' is from the FDIC, and specifically says 'insured deposits.'
> friends

Chamath?
Of course he doesn’t, he just endorses republicans, selectively leaks information to help them, and attacks their enemies.

If that’s not the model of neutrality, then nothing is.
Literally funds the government lol
Not just GDPR, also WPG etc. The latter is what you are supposed to use.
And no, no criminal investigation involved.
They would have gotten their principal back but missing out on interest for 10 years is a huge cost, particularly if you have to pay out interest in the interim to your depositors.
Full quote: "The irony is that, as near as I can tell, they cratered their balance sheet because they were heavily into long maturity bonds (i.e. super conservative)."

What exactly makes you think that the "(i.e. super conservative)" remark is not about "long maturity bonds" - which is the think that he just referenced?

He didn't mention Treasuries at all. I find quite difficult to interpret the "super conservative" as being about some kind of long-maturity bonds relative to another kind of long-maturity bonds.
As you say, Academics are pretty used to paying for access to data, services, material, etc., but $42k-per-month for limited access to Twitter sounds more like a "fuck off" price than anything else.
I don't think he runs the YouTube channel - it's managed by some of his fans. But like what's he gonna do about it? Send them a takedown notice?
We used to use regulations to limit this kind of damage, but those have been removed to allow for money to be made. So instead of proactively preventing these tragedies the government is there to help clean up the mess.
It seems like SVB was exploiting the lack of sophistication among early startups, and now it is going to bite all those startups in the ass.

Wealthfront offers me as an individual better tools for managing risk that it sounds like people who banked with SVB were getting.
Exactly - they failed due to one of the most widely predicted trends. Literally everyone knew interest rates would go up.

They absolutely deserved to fail.

The government allowing them to fail is actually a sign of the system working.
If this happens the companies will immediately close up shop. So you get your last 2 weeks of pay then no more, no severance, nothing.
They are always caught off guard. Try predicting anything macro and see how well it goes to plan. Then try not moving too fast or too slow.

The idea that they aren't doing a good job because they aren't perfectly precise with their timing is misguided. It's a crazy hard job.
I couldn’t give two shits about banks that go under. The businesses that concern me are the ones who lose deposits.
If you hold deposits at 4% and invest at 2%, that's simply not sustainable. The more I read about this, the more it looks to me they were simply going down no matter what. If everyone kept calm for a bit longer, what would have fundamentally changed?

PS. people didn't withdraw to spite anybody, this is not kindergarten. They started withdrawing because they don't want their small companies to die and need money for payroll, it's really the only sane thing to do.
> The exemptees just need to be fucking careful with this advanced mode of operation.

How many times will we get burned until we learned that banks will not be careful if they are given an opportunity to not be.
Oh heck yeah, this I did not know!!!
I think it's nice to have a completely different type of work a couple of days per year.

I've found there's generally developers who are into building custom gaming PCs or Raspberry Pis or whatever who are interested to see the servers and lend a hand installing new ones.
I assume this will still work with uBlock Origin et al. activated?
> Of course it's about nationalism. Said ideological subversion is there to serve the needs of the USSR.

The ideology did not exist to serve the needs of the USSR; the USSR existed to serve the needs of the ideology. You can tell because Marxism was a ideological current for decades before the USSR, and because it regrettably persists decades after the fall of the USSR.

The USSR exerted a centralized dominance over that ideology--as early as the Spanish Civil War, Soviet-backed groups were purging rival leftist factions on the Republican side. To a less brutal degree, the US has exerted a similar centralized dominance over the liberal democracies of the world.
There isn't a vaccine for skin cancer. This is a completely novel thing, enabled by the ability of mRNA vaccines to be developed rapidly once you have a target.

It seems certain to replace flu vaccines, which are incredibly awkward. They take a very long time to produce, which means they need to start well in advance of flu season. Some years they guess right about what influenza variants will be prominent; others they don't. If the mRNA based flu vaccine works, I doubt they'll go through the immense effort of developing the conventional vaccine.

But childhood vaccines (MMR, DPT, etc) work pretty well, and cause little harm, so they don't seem like good targets for replacement any time soon. The first targets will certainly be things that aren't currently under control, which has the advantage of being both (a) good for world health, and (b) good for their bottom line.

They may some day try to replace the existing conventional vaccines, especially if it spawns a new industry looking for markets to target. But for the next decade at least it'll all be new stuff.
So the ARM Architectural Reference Manual (the Arm ARM) defines the three architectural profiles: A, R, and M. I'm not even mad, that's amazing.
3% MBS, that's a good one. Try more like 1.25% coupon rate with the crazy low mortgage rates were at when SVB got the inrush of deposits (the banks and the GSEs gotta make their money too, with mortgage rates near 7% UMBS coupons are only at 5.5%).
Just so we are all fully aware: SVB bet in ~2020 that interest rates they offer could be well below 1% (given their operating costs and what not) for 10 years. Obviously, by 2023 already, depositors were expecting much more.

So, yeah, these MBS will probably pay out when held to maturity, but their customers didn't buy MBS, they deposited their money in a bank.
Sorry, but the systemic risk here is vastly overstated. Yes, this will be painful to the tech sector but they made some truly awful decisions and have to pay the piper.

We should also consider the moral hazard at play here. How are future tech CEO's going to go into work every day and completely crush it 200% if they know that the government will bail them out if their monkey jpeg startup fails? A bailout will only breed lazy entrepreneurs, taking hard-earned tax dollars away from America's job-doers.
Fun fact, the American Medical Association artificially limits the number of doctors that can go through residency programs each year. The limit is actually lower than the number of medical school graduates, forcing some small number of new doctors to leave the country because they aren't allowed to become licensed.
There's always degrees of speculation that are going to vary - cryptocurrencies, tech stocks, consumer staple stocks, gold, commodities, real estate, etc.

No one expects that real estate will skyrocket and tank like shitcoins (even in 2008, the residential real estate market didn't bottom out until 2012). But that doesn't mean that Federal Reserve policy has been good.

I'd highly recommend the book (or audiobook) "The Lords of Easy Money: How the Federal Reserve Broke the American Economy" for anyone who is interested in a historical summary of the FOMC.
Startup Finance Lesson – Diversification Matters (SVB)
In the wake of a failure like the SVB collapse, diversifying your funds can help to protect your assets and ensure that your investments are not overly concentrated in any one particular asset or institution. This can reduce the risk of losing a large portion of your portfolio due to the failure of a single investment or financial institution.
Another use for cellphones

Technically, it would not be claustrophobia but cleithrophobia. Simialr but not the same.
"When I was an engineer I focused on work that improved my career, but then I became a manager and realized that my engineers actually should work to improve my career!"

Funny how that works.
Being able to trust in the stability of banks is subsidizing the economy, not just wealthy individuals. It isn't CEOs who got tossed out of work in 2008, it was't wealthy individuals who had a 27% unemployment rate.

Wealthy individuals constantly try to game the system. Not letting the games they play hurt the rest of us is an entirely proper role for the government to take on.
Yes, Delaware has no jurisdiction over events that take place in California, or vice versa. A delaware corporation hiring an employee in California means that it is subject to the laws of California solely when it comes to its relationship with that employee.
It is actually comparable to both.

We aim to provide a similar feature set as Sidekiq (throttling, unique jobs) but with a complete hosted solution.

While Defer and Temporal can both be used for writing background jobs, workflows, and CRONs, there are some core design differences.

Temporal has been created as the Kubernetes of highly distributed systems, enabling developers to write code that runs on multiple regions without worrying about possible termination of the program and interruption of workflows spanning across multiple steps.

While Temporal can be used for background jobs, workflows, and CRONs, its main goal is to ensure that highly distributed tasks will reliably be executed.
That's the main reason why Temporal API is so verbose, with many concepts to deal with.

Defer, on the other hand, provides comparable reliability while focusing on the developer experience.

You can write workflows, CRONs, and jobs that run for hours without worrying about them being terminated.

All this, with a simple API that enables you to write some workflows (background functions calling other background functions) in plain TypeScript, with no mental model to fit in.
I'll add my voice to the list too, and state that this is not a good thing, and I'm against it.
Startups are fragile by definition. Most fail.
OK as long as they don't drive them on the sidewalk.
If you're going to discuss these things in public, you should be providing a way for people to keep an eye on it, e.g. an RSS feed or an email newsletter.
Because that’s estimated to maximise the chance of you signing up?
So, you're essentially proposing a weaker, informal version of Basel III. In which case, why have such an exemption in the first place? What innovations does it lead to? Restrictions on banking typically exist for a _really_ good reason. After all, we saw what happened when retail and investment banking were allowed to mingle because it 'lead to [...] innovations'. If you're going to advocate for something beyond saying 'but look, innovation!', you need to be more explicit about what those innovations are, because European banking is plenty innovative within the constraints of Basel III.
2. The people running the graph do not want the graph to die but want the edges to decay.

Thanks for this, I am now also having some thoughts.
What you are talking about here is the financial apocalypse. If a hundred million people all lose the money in their bank accounts, then we go back to the barter system overnight. The thing you will be bartering will likely be seeds and ammunition.
In this situation, the reserve bank absolutely should take over SVB's assets and liabilities, that is what its for and what it can do easily and painlessly. The govt is not involved and no tax dollars are involved. No customer of SVB should be out of pocket and certainly no employee of a customer of SVB should be. The losers are the shareholders of SVB as their equity is wiped out and some of SVB's employees will lose their jobs.
No. A CEO is a corporate officer.
So...they're releasing 2 separate AI? I don't understand how a text LLM is supposed to generate video.
You're right, the full million isn't a liability. But anyone depositing 1M isn't putting it in a non-interest bearing account. So now you are generating liability every second you sit on the cash. Which means you need to "invest" it.
So gambler wants house to cover his losses because his friends and him won't be able to continue gamble if they lose.
ChatGPT API in Python
> FDIC isn’t stupid; they’re issuing IOUs

“Receivership certificates” aren’t really IOUs (they are more “defunct entity owes you”). The DFPI takeover and FDIC receivership is, effectively, a kind of “bankruptcy” for the bank.

> these companies can borrow against the IOUs.

What amounts to an IOU from a bankrupt entity is…not very good collateral for a loan.

> It’s not like this is a minor bank failure; everyone knows about it.

Right, and everyone who isn’t already exposed wants to stay out of the blast radius, not jump into it.
It's logical or sane if you think capital investment options in New areas is going to dry up and existing assets are the best opportunity for preserving or growing your money.

How much would you spend on the house if you're only alternative is to watch your capital disappear
> This, these bonds/mbs are liquid instruments

It is all relative, not all relevant

Anything is liquid if you will lower the price enough
Pfizer’s Zavzpret (Zavegepant) Migraine Nasal Spray Receives FDA Approval
It's trivial to find examples of food tents, clashing with police, and DJs in both groups, so it's probably a difference in the media you are watching, and these aren't very good examples.

I think it may make more sense to try to make a judgement as to the reason for the protests. My best understanding of the truckers protest they were protesting Canada requiring truckers who crossed the US-Canada border to be vaccinated, while the BLM protesters were protesting US police negligence, uses of force, and perceived lack of oversight.

Maybe the split is more about those who judge the reasons for protesting vs the methods of protesting rather than left vs right. In any case I don't think counting bouncy houses is productive.
Okay, but where did you take your business? That's what we wanna know :)
Smells like blame shifting to me.
He shouted the sky is falling.
Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't.
SVB was a pretty big bank and was clear in its representations.
Maybe he shouldn't have played Chicken Little, initiating the precise scenario the bank warned against.
Will banks dump that many short term t bills to cause a problem? Short term t bills are very popular- I’m sure some b2b loans could be settled with a t bill as payment. As long as the us govt is still good for the interest payments I think plenty will be happy with that arrangement, reducing need to convert so much into cash.
So is this going to be a “privatized profits, socialized losses” type scenario? Are taxpayers going to be bailing out this bank and the companies that use them?
I wonder how many startups would have predicted "bank failure" as their root cause of failure. The problem is not the fragility of each individual startup, which everyone knows. The real issue is that one singular bank failure could tip so many over at the same time. Part of the issue is Silicon Valley-centric CEOs following guidance of Silicon Valley-centric VCs, who no surprise, recommend SVB. A little independent thinking goes a long way to make your fragile startup a bit less fragile. All these startups would have had to do is hedge their bets a bit and not go all-in with Silicon Valley and their already fragile startups wouldn't have been made that much more fragile.

Besides, I'm talking about the fragility of the ecosystem, not just individual startups. While everyone knows each startup is just a flash in the pan, here one day, very likely gone the next, the same was not said about a whole ecosystem. Silicon valley as a whole seemed remarkably stable until recently.
I have a lot of computers because some of my clients are in regulated industries and if I ever get subpoenaed I can prune my company's proprietary non-customer-specific dotfiles and just hand over that laptop in full with 100% of that specific client's data on it and not compromise any personal/my-company's data or any other client data.

I don't like switching yubikeys and they make little tiny ones that live 24/7 in a USB-C port and they are cheap, so I literally just put one in each and every computer I type on. It's simple and easy.
SVB failed to hedge their interest rate risk.
The money exists sure, but wages have to be paid in hard cash, not treasury bonds. The cash does not exist.
I've seen double black diamond slopes with less of a drop:

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SIVB:NASDAQ
I'd wager it's uncountably infinite.

Here's my very vague justification. Something countably infinite proceeds towards infinity in one direction. Let's say we were at a store containing an infinite number of grocery items, there would be an infinite number of words signifying, so in a language which could only be the expression of listing items in that store, it would be countably infinite.

The thing about real languages though is that there is an infinite number of possible interrelations between any two words based on context. This is similar to the uncountable infinite of the real numbers, in which any two rational numbers have an infinite number of real numbers between them.