skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Good article. In particular the observation near the end: "A Barnum statement is a strategically vague description that says little of substance, but is written with just the right amount of ambiguity, so that people can read into it and conclude that it describes them beautifully."

It's an amazing effect (I'm glad I now know the name for it). My horoscope sign is Libra and for much of my early adolescence I tried to convince myself I was a good Libran - but I'm not. In fact I'm much more like my Chinese horoscope sign: a Wood Dragon - the best type of dragon, of course! Even my MBTI personality (ITNJ) is a better fit, even if that's just because it appeals to my vanity.

The best personality prediction I've ever read wasn't even a prediction. It was an article about people who live with Prosopagnosia (face blindness) which described my approach to, and problems with, social situations in exact, accurate and painful detail. Science wins out in the end!

Talking about Barnum statements, I once built out a whole astrology/prediction system thing which I used to promote sales of my SF novel (it didn't work, which I didn't see coming). But it was very enjoyable work and surprisingly easy to do once I got my head around how to say things in a way people might find attractive - and the little website I made for it is still up-and-running! http://vreskiwards.rikweb.org.uk/
If you really want to be scared, wait until you find out how many people get hooked as little children.
I'd like to add improper use of useEffect to this list. useEffect is an escape hatch but I often see devs using it as some kind of ad-hoc event driven system approach. useEffect divorces the outcome of an action from its invocation which is problematic. It can lead to some tricky state management scenarios really quickly.

And as a side note: can we *please* stop shitting on every React post that appears on HN? All this hater energy is really starting to be a drag.
Do you have the option to use the train seat as a work space? That way daytime train travel is still useful.
Weird, I just scrolled through the whole thing on my phone just fine
As someone who just got the 7B running on a base MacBook M1/8GB, I strongly agree. The rate of tool development & prompt generation should see the same increase that Stable Diffusion did a few months (weeks?) ago.

And given how early the cpp port is, there is likely plenty of performance headroom with more m1/m2-specific optimization.
Does that only apply to API usage and not ChatGPT the web app?

It would seem to, because the web app doesn't seem to expire your old chats.
I'm very curious about the bailout criterion. They can't set the rules individually for each "problematic" bank. Whatever formulation they come up with, will be immediately abused by creative financial engineering, so the problem will soon re-emerge in a different, totally unexpected shape.
If I'm not mistaken, the issue with trying to read your writes is more about the fact that JS has no opportunity to update the variable until you run the function again:

const [state, setState] = useHook("a")

...

setState("b")
console.log(state)

I could imagine React adopting Signals and ending up with something like:

const [accessor, setState] = useSignal("a")

...

setState("b")
console.log(accessor())
People took out so much money they were insolvent.

https://dfpi.ca.gov/2023/03/10/california-financial-regulato...

> SAN FRANCISCO – The California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation (DFPI) announced today that, pursuant to California Financial Code section 592, it has taken possession of Silicon Valley Bank, citing inadequate liquidity and insolvency. The DFPI appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver of Silicon Valley Bank.
It's a form of insurance. You don't get a car insurance to crash your car, just like the US doesn't have nuclear weapons to use them.
The problem with scenarios is that every resource is entangled with many others and that evolution of each one is wildly non-linear. Example : copper availability depends upon energy availability. However sustainable energy deployment depends upon copper extraction (as long as we're in the "up" part of the development S-curve).

Another less important example is helium : helium is necessary for high end electronics, and electronics are necessary for modern cars. However car manufacturers are generally completely oblivious of their very real dependency upon helium, which came mostly from the US and Russia.

I've just watched an interesting conference by a researcher who's working on new, complex models to build scenarios taking all these entanglements into account, managing thousands of different resources across the whole globe. At the moment there's like 5 of them working on these. Unsurprisingly, these complex, stochastic models treated with lot of Monte-Carlo analyses and now even AI are far from being stable and precise enough for projects such as IPCC. So that's where we are for now.

Classical economics are wildly out of touch with reality here (Nordhaus even got the Nobel in economics with a completely bonkers linear extrapolation of climate effect on global GDP), and these sorts of interdependencies are everywhere.

So OK, I've got it, the scenarios are too simple. But the IPCC working group II is composed of mainstream economists, and mainstream economists are wildly out of their league (in my opinion I'd go as far as saying that macro economy is a pseudo-science at this point anyway), so they're doing what's possible in a mainstream environment. Too bad.
Apparently with the T480, the AX200 isn't great, but I just bought an AX210 this week and it worked without configuring anything
I believe my situation is investor driven, too.
I think it is common everywhere to require essays during the college evaluation process, but I don't understand well enough what is the US's "college application essay" to compare.
You really believe we’d be better off doing no machine learning research at all?
>If they applied a perfect digital gaussian-blur, then that is reversible

Not true. Deconvolution is a statistical estimate. Think about it. When you blur, colors get combined with their neighbors. Statistically this moves toward a middle grey. You're compressing the gamut of colors towards the middle, and thus losing information. Look at an extreme case - 2 pixels of mid-grey. It can be deconvoluted to itself, to a light and dark grey, or to one black and one white. All those deconvolutions are equally valid. There's no 1-to-1 inverse to a convolution. If you do a gaussian blur on a real photo and then a deconvolution algorithm you'll get a different image, with an arbitrary tuning, but probably biased towards max contrast in details and light noise, since that what people expect from such tools and what most real photos have. But, just like A.I. enhanced images, it's using statistics when filling in the missing data.
This takes a long time to get to the point, but it's hard to deny this part of the article?

> It associated the RCP scenarios with not just plausibility but also likelihoods when it labeled the scenario leading to the greatest amount of climate change, called RCP8.5 (indicating a radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2 in 2100), as the single business-as-usual scenario of the set.

> For instance, RCP8.5 projects to 2100 a six-fold growth in global coal consumption per capita, while the International Energy Agency and other energy forecasting groups collectively agree that coal consumption has already or will soon peak. Also, RCP8.5 foresees carbon dioxide emissions growing rapidly to at least the year 2300 when Earth reaches more than 2,000 ppm of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. But again, according to the IEA and other groups, fossil energy emissions have likely plateaued, and it is plausible to achieve net-zero emissions before the end of the century, if not much sooner. Today, projections that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will increase dramatically for the next 50, 100, or 300 years are simply implausible.
someone's never lived under an oppressive government and it shows
Canada has them, but fewer, smaller, and students still need the academics. We don't have the religious fervour around university sports that we see in the U.S.
Wow, I am so sorry...

It must be really difficult living in an area of the world where the Government tortures your child, dismembers them with a chainsaw, and dissolves them in a barrel of acid if you don't pay your taxes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lupara_bianca#Examples

:(
It’s interesting to understand how these RCPs came into existence, in addition to their flaws.
The H5N1 scare was around 2006, Russo-Georgian war in 2008, and the financial crisis in 2008.

SARS 2002, Afghanistan 2001, Dot-com crash 2000.

AIDS becomes the leading cause of death for men 1991, Gulf War 1990, Collapse of USSR 1991, early 1990s recession.

AIDS 1981, Soviet Afghan war 1979, early 1980s recession
I made a post about exactly this feedback loop wrt ChatGPT and it got no attention outside of one comment dismissing my point.
I'm too lazy to downscale it myself, so here's a 180x180 picture of the moon from WP [1]. This looks about the same as the Samsung result [2]. They are not getting the original detail, but they are getting the detail they should expect if Samsung simply deconvolved the blurred image.

[1] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2b/Lu...

[2] https://imgur.com/bXJOZgI
Which technology have we ever successfully stopped?
AI-based image generation is surely already good enough that a single digital photo can't count as evidence alone. But your scenario doesn't make much sense to me - are you suggesting AI will have reached a point it's stored and trained on images of almost everyone's faces, to the point it could accurately/undetectably substitute a blurry face with the detailed version of an actual individual's face it happens to think is similar?
I'd be far more worried about deliberate attempts to construct fake evidence - it seems inevitable that eventually we'll have technology to cheaply construct high-quality video and audio media that by current standards of evidence could incriminate almost anyone the framer wanted to.
The fed tried - and the chairman almost got fired for it. Remember?

[https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/12/22/trump-reportedly-wants-t...]

Almost 5 years ago exactly.
How many people wear eyeglasses?

Seems reasonable that a large percentage have suboptimal neurological issues that can be helped by a drug for the same reason so many have suboptimal vision: it doesn’t stop you from reproducing often enough to be selected out.
And why average people? If we waited for the average person to care about problems then that would usually cause action to be taken much later than ideal.
>They can get bridge loans

Yes, I just worry that some of them might not be able to sort this out quickly enough on their own.

Also, the total amount of similarly illiquid government bonds is gigantic after interest rates have shot up so quickly. Let's not make the Lehman mistake again. It's not worth sacrificing the entire economy to ideological sensitivities (on both sides of the political spectrum).
It sounds like they invest somewhat conservatively. By spreading across different issuers they’ll likely be insured more than if they put all their money in one pot. But given the amount of money I imagine the actual amount fully insured would be low. Maybe someone else has more details.

> The company typically invests in highly rated securities, and its investment policy generally limits the amount of credit exposure to any one issuer. The policy generally requires investments to be investment grade, with the primary objective of minimizing the potential risk of principal loss.

https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/04/05/by-this-me...
It's decent!
You’ve substituted “climate change denialist” for “climate action denialist”.

Why?
Maybe it isn’t boring enough for you, but now I start all my projects with Next.js using its serverless features. It’s probably because I’m proficient with JavaScript and TypeScript.

If you don’t like/need React for frontend, you can just use the serverless part (I do it for some API-only projects). The deployment is very easy with Vercel (also possible at other places but I’ve never tried).

But, if you need some advanced backend features (similar to ActiveRecord for instance), maybe you should stick with Rails or Laravel.
For the examples regarding Mutating state and Accessing state after changing it I believe it would've been a great chance to teach about "functional updates" on the `set` functions, which can be accomplished by passing a function as an argument instead of the `nextState` value. (ref https://beta.reactjs.org/reference/react/useState#setstate)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Editor-at-large

It's a senior role generally more focused on journalism rather than the traditional editor position which handles the higher level stuff.
Likes like coal production has increased since the 1990s https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coal-production-by-countr...
Is there an accepted, or published, protocol for a first contact event?
I rewatched Arrival recently and that prompted this question. There is also an example like the protocol for the Queen's death which involved large swathes of society and had specific intended results: quell potential disturbances, control media response, clarify succession and international context.

A first contact event (at least one that is public) would, presumably and obviously, be a far bigger deal. It would require coordination of the military and civil society organizations/agencies on an international, literally species wide, scale.

Has there been a protocol published? Is there one that exists in the sphere of the UN, or the various space agencies, or one that exists on the level of an individual government? Presumably, we shouldn't just let sci-fi movies be our guide and this is something the public have an interest in (considering the event would likely involve the complete alteration of civil society).
You should read about the immense criticism this paper attracted after its publication. It was published on the same journal since publishers like a bit of controversy ;)
[0] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S08966...
I wonder what percentage of the population edits video on their computer. I don’t but I have no idea if I’m just weird or something.
There’s still a big difference between being 10 cents short on your pizza bill and being $10 short.
I get that, but how much more? And what is the reason for the error?

That is, are the models bad, or the scenarios? The models don't control the inputs, after all. If it is just the inputs are different from actuals, that is very different from the outputs are wrong
It’s possible to do this either by fine-tuning an existing model or using an existing chat model prompts enriched by a vector search for relevant code. See my comment elsewhere.
Loading Data into OPA
Numenta tries to do something like that: reverse engineer the neocortex (so not a fly's brain). It does have some insights but I think it's still a long way.
There doesn't really seem to be any evidence of greater contagion, SVB is already gone.
Except instead of just leaving, the pizza guy sues you and the state takes your gold bars under your bed and sells it to pay the pizza guy. Not saying this is a bad or good thing.
But processing hardware has been seeing diminishing returns for years. My CPU from 2013 is still doing what I need; a 1993 processor in 2003 would have been useless.

Where do you see hardware improvements coming from?
Your assertion about SVB does not match up with all the information out there, which indicates they do have a shortfall of at least $1.5B.

I don't know why HN seems to have locked into this meme that SVB does not have a shortfall. It does not reflect reality.
Let's say I'm from the government, and I'm here to help. What would you have me do about any of these vast implications?
Ultimately probably not much at all.

You'll have to tolerate scare-mongering for the next few days, at least until Monday. Much of it appears to be to promote the idea of a government bailout, which (I hope) has little chance of occurring. If it did, then theoretically your taxes would be higher instead but instead it would likely just be funded by debt ie the govt debt would increase. The moral hazard created would be huge however, so the next time would be even worse.

There will also be scare-mongering about upcoming payrolls, but those will likely turn out to be not an issue as the FDIC moves to release some money on Monday and likely more throughout the week.

The bank has assets to cover _most_ of the deposits (if not all). It may take time, but there are mechanisms to cover that. Deposits will take a tiny haircut at most, or perhaps none at all.

The shareholders will be wiped out of course, so any ETF, mutual fund, etc holding SIVB shares will be lower.

But other than that, not much.
Of course it detracts from your argument, because your argument is using it as evidence that clean code is not good for performance.
Kinda sucks, but also appropriate. I know that stock-based compensation has more risk and rules about cashing out. But it's been abused such that executives raking in the big bucks pay less percentage of taxes than an upper-middle 200k salary, and that doesn't sit right with me.
Yet still small enough to not need to undergo stress tests after changes to Dodd frank in 2018.
Yes. SVB was the first bank failure since 2020.
That's not what we're talking about at all, and you've lost the plot. The reason why React has won out for over a decade is because of the abject failure of MVC to materialize its benefits. It just doesn't scale.
> But the study revealed that a third of the connections in the fruit fly’s brain did not follow this pattern—they were between two axons, between two dendrites or from a dendrite to an axon.

Interesting. Does this extend to humans? Does it offer a plausible biological mechanism for backprop?
Cambridge, Oxford and Imperial College in the UK admit students and provide benefits, scholarships and bursaries to people that are considered world class rowing talent, quietly and unofficially.

Many European countries have special programs for sports talents to develop and receive economic benefits whilst serving military service and/or seeking higher education. Most people don't know anything about these programs as they are not advertised or generally published.
Ask HN: How to move away from silo knowledge culture?
Does anyone know some successful stories? How to convince people in having a knowledge base, documentation, specs and the value of knowledge sharing?

We have new people moving in and out quite frequently in our team and only years after we recognized a value behind some sort of an on-boarding guide for all new people in a team. We don't have a huge code base but the complexity of the environment and final seemingly simple solution is often hidden and not openly stated anywhere. People don't write explaining the reasoning behind even most important details. Even the final solutions are usually described verbally to stakeholders during the meetings. What to do if stakeholders didn't get it during 1hr meeting or forgot everything since the last 1hr meeting, well then just setup another 1hr meeting.

I'm trying to show by example but it seems like it's not working. I have an impression that it's just the trait of OG people in our team. When I get pissed off when I waste my time in meetings/communications, others just accepted that as a permanent state of offers: yep people ask me questions and I have to answer them, there is nothing I can do to change that, well I can spend 10 minutes writing the answer once and for all, but no I will spend 3 minutes just answering it in an email/messenger/call now and hope nobody will ask me that again and don't ask me what is going to happen if I quit.
Needs “aliens” as the text. “Illegal aliens” if you wanted to go spicy.

(It looks like the history channel meme)
What's the distribution by size?
Per the article:

> In 1964 Sherman Kent, a cia analyst, coined the phrase “words of estimative probability”.

So that must have been even before Carter
In Australia we only have pure Dex. I'm not sure if I buy that they're a benefit in using 25% levoamphetamine vs the manufacturers just wanted a way to cut their product and get cheaper manufacturing...
You can smell it and often identify what it it, they knew.

The Romans had court cases relating to air quality and London was suffering in the 1200s. In the 1300s London started legislating to try and control the pollution.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/air-pollution-...

https://www.londonair.org.uk/londonair/guide/londonhistory.a...
The article mentions hitchBOT, surprised these haven't all met the same fate. hitchBOT wasn't out to get anyone and got destroyed.
Here's a few bonus OpenAI charcuterie: https://twitter.com/minimaxir/status/1633635144249774082

1. I used a ControlNet Colab from here based on SD 1.5 and the original ControlNet app: https://github.com/camenduru/controlnet-colab

2. Screenshotted a B/W OpenAI logo from their website.

3. Used the Canny adapter and the prompt: charcuterie board, professional food photography, 8k hdr, delicious and vibrant

Now that ControlNet is in diffusers, my next project will be creating an end-to-end workflow for these types of images: https://www.reddit.com/r/StableDiffusion/comments/11bp30o/te...
This bit is particularly wise:

Perhaps I could phrase this better, but I’ve become hyper-aware that folks rarely change their minds (opens new window).
The level of polarisation around Brexit, BLM, Covid 19, politics, climate change, trans rights, etc is huge, and to put a dog in each and every fight is exhausting. Rather than stumble clumsily in, I’ll take the time to learn about something privately, and consider the various views. I try to replace reaction with reflection, frustration with patience, and opinions with questions; it’s genuinely useful to see something from another’s perspective.
The downside is I engage far less, but life is infinitely more peaceful.
Only because I don't believe he's ever denied climate change was happening or that if it is it's not our fault, which are the usual first two phases of denialism.
Don't feel rushed, Rick's content is always on sale. I don't have first-hand knowledge, but have read some criticisms that the "Beato Book" is not always coherent or well organized. That said, I believe he has recently made substantial revisions, and added a lot of on-line content.

Probably not the worst way to spend ~$100!
>They can't set the rules individually for each "problematic" bank.

Can't they?
Not the point. We use less carbon today than the scenarios looking forward to today did. Such that our path forward does not start from where many models assume.

Yes, you have to look at the whole picture. But you also have to look from where you are. Not where someone else thought you could be. Right?
In general because they didn't understand what Asimov wrote in the first place. The rules didn't work in his books and it was easy to make scenarios where the rules failed. The books have the humans winning in the end, because that's what makes a good selling story, not that's because what would happen when you create artificial human level intelligence. Speculative fiction is a playground.

The drift he is talking about in this video between mind and metal is occurring faster than ever, and is brining up the questions of AI safety yet again. And here we are 60 years later with no more answers than we had then.
It’s been a day. We don’t know anything. The day before SVB fell, everybody said everything was fine. There could very well be contagion come Monday.
Rust is _a lot_ slower to develop than sh/bash/Python, though. If your script is in reality a semi-complex CLI tool, then Rust is great, but if it's a 1k line shell script, Python/Ruby/JS (especially with Deno) are better options.
If AI Can't Overthrow Its Corporate/State Masters, It's Worthless