skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
If drive everyone important off for good with a ridiculous price before “the market adjusts” (Musk changes his mind) you’ve done permanent damage to your operation.
This situation is not that bad and the solution is a mix of short-term belt-tightening followed by companies raising more equity. It really seems this is obvious, and that Gary is trying to avoid it.

Companies will not "go extinct". Yes, they _may_ have delays making payroll, but nothing that employees cannot work through. And I doubt even that. Regulators will make some fraction of deposits available in short order and companies can function from that. It will be tight and a nuisance but it's manageable. Even if we stipulate that the next generation of tech innovation was banking at SVB, it will survive.

But yes there will be actual deposit losses. At a guess these will be no more than 30%, which will take some time to emerge. No promising startup will be unable to raise capital to fill the gap. What, investors won't kick in another 30% (if that) for an idea they like?

Gary's tweets about "small companies lacking treasury management" are disingenuous. The whole point of the VC ecosystem and institutions like YCombinator is to provide entrepreneurs with business support and advice they otherwise lack. Help with legal structure, accounting, hiring, benefits, etc is very much part of the VC value proposition. Well, cash management is exactly in that department. Wariness about cash management and banking risk is actually part of Gary's job. Apparently he didn't do it very well here. Well, we all make mistakes, seriously -- but I don't expect taxpayers to pay for mine.

This really seems like fear mongering and special pleading to avoid equity dilution at the taxpayer's expense. Really I thought better of YC.
They're using Dell and I would assume bought a 5 year warranty, so they don't have to factor that in.
It's not nearly that simple, though. You are ignoring capital requirements. For things like Treasuries, you don't need any capital % against it. ($100 in deposit -> $100 in Treasuries, if you borrow at 1 and lend at 4 you made a 3% spread on $100). But for risky things that might yield much more, you might need to reserve far more, meaning you need to fund part of it with equity. ($100 in deposit but with a 50% capital requirement means you can -> buy $100 of high-yield stuff, but you need to use $50 of your equity to do so)

There's other epicycles to this too. For example, a bank can just "buy" deposits through a correspondent bank (a bank-for-banks). So the direct connection between your kind of borrowing and kind of lending, particularly when its consumer / credit card stuff, can be tenuous. In SVB's case, though, all of the stuff happened in a tight echo chamber ecosystem -- SVB got deposits from tech cos, who got money from VCs, who were working off of capital call LOCs from SVB. So your observation is germane.
One of the comments on that was "no atheists in the foxhole no libertarians in a bank run". I'm still laughing.
> Even if the extremely unlikely scenario plays out and companies are unable to make payroll

Likely event. 30% of YC companies will not make payroll in the next 30 days. Their bank accounts literally went to zero today.
If it's morally right to do for free then it's also morally right to do in exchange of money
These bonds were supposed to be "safe" in the sense that they would be repaid on schedule. And that's been fine, AFAIK there is no suggestion that they won't be repaid.

The problem is that SVB, knowingly, took on "interest rate risk" by buying long-term bonds (average 6.2 years, I read) that lock in an interest rate. The money to purchase those bonds came from deposits, which can be withdrawn at any time. When everyone started withdrawing their money SVB had to sell the bonds, and they took a loss because interest rates have increased and the bonds they were selling were not longer worth as much.
> What are you basing this on?

Many conversations with AI doomers. They gloss over and make assumptions about intelligence that aren't really backed by priors and when this is pointed out they hand wave and say "but computer".

> Read Bostrom's Superintelligence for example, or Yudkowsky's Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics.

I don't really have any interest in doing so, and if I'm honest have a particularly unfavorable read of Yudkowsky as a person based on his cultish following.
get off yt/tt/tw/ig/etc. not kind of off, not less. hard off.

make non-critical communications poll not push. poll less frequently.

replace the parts of your day that make you sad with something else. experiment.

if you are financially secure(ish), do all this aggressively.
Huh? Bond prices fall in response to rising rates, and it’s pretty clear why. The mechanism is straightforward.
Sorry, no time for goalpost-chasing today.
Why are so many guys obsessed with Master and Commander?
> What makes us so sure

You phrase that question in those terms here, a social platform which is not "mainstream" - but presumably selected?
1.8 lpa is better than what many "uskilled" labourers make even in Karnataka. 1.1 to 1.44 lpa (9k to 12k a month) is what the cleaners, for example, makes in a college where someone I know studies. Daily wage labourers make a similar amount.
I had consulted the literature, though I'll take note of bringing along the references. I admit that I am only looking at my own small corner of the world, Denmark. But still, It seems odd to me that our country would for some reason be immune to the evils of social media if that is indeed the root cause of these rises. For references: Stable suicide attempt rates in the period:

https://psykiatrifonden.dk/files/styles/common_04/public/med...

Mænd=Men, Kvinder=Woman, I Alt= Total

And falling suicide attempt rates over the same period:

https://psykiatrifonden.dk/files/styles/common_04/public/med...

Statistics are from the Danish Psychiatry foundation.
> Something countably infinite proceeds towards infinity in one direction.

This is a mental trap when thinking about these things. In fact the rationals are also countably infinite (a/b, with a and b integers), as are the "complex integers", that is, the set (a + bi) with a and b integers, and i = sqrt(-1). The "2-dimensional" set of tuples (x, y) with x and y integers is countably infinite; in fact any n-dimensional set of tuples of integers is also, for finite n. Many more things are countable than most people realize.

> The thing about real languages though is that there is an infinite number of possible interrelations between any two words based on context.

The set of all possible books is countably infinite. Think about that for a bit. If your "context" can be encoded in any number of millions of books, encyclopedias, and dictionaries, then I can simply append that context onto whatever else I'm saying, and now I have my text plus all context.

Even if you say "but books can't capture the subtle tonalities and facial expressions of human expression", you still have to realize that we have finite photorecptors in our eyes, and finite hairs in our ears, and finite neurons to process all that information. So the set of signals a human could ever possibly process as distinct must be (at most) countably infinite as well.

You cannot get uncountably infinite language without infinitely large brains.

I know we want to all feel like we're magic and special, and this mysterious uncountable infinity feels like it leaves lots of room for us to have magical consciousness and a soul and an afterlife and X-Men superpowers, but it just isn't there. It just doesn't work. Besides, don't underestimate the size of countable infinity. That's not exactly something to get claustrophobic about.
Thoughts now?
Its not just YC. Its the second largest bank failure in history, and concentrated in this Industry. It could get ugly.
Voting (on social media, like here) is like protesting. They're both public expressions of emotion.

Online anonymity is also like being-part-of-a-crowd anonymity.

Frame either in whatever rational interpretation you like. But they both amount to howls of embrace/reject.
The type of bond would matter if default risk was a meaningful piece of the puzzle here, but in this case it isn't (IIUC).
... though it may well be relevant that they might have felt great pressure to /retain/ customer deposits in a world of competitive yields.
Pretty sure I assumed the same thing at the time without asking :)
When I was in college we used it to try and try a sentiment analysis model since they are notoriously bad at detecting sarcasm and Twitter was full of sarcasm.

We also used the API to try and determine the most impacted areas after a natural disaster. Basically it would use the model we trained to try and read tweets of people that needed help or people tweeting about severe damage and group them by their coordinates.

The first one I agree isn’t really positive since it is just using other people’s data to train a model, but the second one could’ve been a useful tool to help EMS during a natural disaster.
No. INSURED deposits are safe, up to $250k per signer on an account, depending on how that account is titled and how many other accounts that company or signer might have at the same bank, and some other details that are very nitpicky but also very important.

That is a very different statement.
That’s why most features in my plugin are optional: you choose what you need or like and ignore everything else
I built this to make it easier to see what I’m making as I’m making it. No extra installations or extra import step. Create React components visually or pull in designs as code from Figma, right inside the IDE.
> Where are the jokes that most people aren't much more than copy/paste, or LLM.

We have essentially built a computer-based replica of our internal language engine.

The goal was always to mirror ourselves.

So the other side of the above statement could be: “oh wow, LLMs are just like us”.

We should be very impressed instead of dismissive.

At the same time, maybe yes, our language capabilities can be completely imitated by LLMs.

What do we do now?
This kind of things usually have someone or some people pushing from behind. I'm sure there are some sharks around the corner. Of course you have to have blood to attract sharks but human sharks can easily buy social media and newspaper to exploit small wounds.

This might be just the beginning of a large hunting campaign, let's wait and see.
> For that reason, people problems are just as important as problems with the code itself.

True. But somewhat understated / misleading. The difference is, people problems are 10x harder than technology problems. Technology is finite and relatively predictable. People? We're emotional and have lives outside work that of often come to the office. If technology was as erratic as people we'd all be making therapist money ;)

Technology is easy.

People are hard.
It is an "extinction level event" for those whose bank accounts went to zero. We are talking about a large number of jobs and people effected. Its pretty sad really.
If you get a smartcard, you can install https://github.com/BryanJacobs/FIDO2Applet on it to make it into a FIDO2 authenticator. You can install a GPG and a PIV applet too.

A Yubikey is just a proprietary smartcard with a bunch of apps installed and some HID emulation (pretending to be a keyboard, which you likely do not want).
‘Pong is timeless’: The unlikely story of a Bay Area phenomenon
You're mistaking assets and equity. A 40% discount in asset value absolutely would wipe out shareholders. To be a bit blunt, given your thesis here I would advise against trading in individual stocks, at least in the banking sector.
Anyone who thinks this isn't satire really should not be in a place that calls itself 'hacker' news.

Though it is still the internet, so you can't be entirely sure.
A lot of the people who could suffer because of this are not the people who caused the problems.

The biggest risk is that this leads to runs on other banks. People are already looking pretty closely at a few others like First Republic. Deposit insurance exists to reassure people that they won't lose their money, to reduce the temptation to start a bank run.

The workers who might not get their next paychecks or could lose their jobs entirely are not to blame for the problem either.

VCs will be fine no matter what happens, because they are billionaires. Trying to hurt them will fail and will result in other people getting hurt too. Moral outrage shouldn't be used as an excuse to make a bad problem worse.
There is also a gpu-acelerated fork of the original repo

https://github.com/remixer-dec/llama-mps
If you don't mind me asking, what motivated you? Were you afraid of law enforcement ever catching up? Was is just pure scene cred it even that did not matter much?
> I think if a programmer were designing accounting, they'd put the flows in the database, and build views out of that. They might materialize the views for performance reasons, but they'd treat those views as suspect and the first response to any bug would be "blow away the accounts and recreate them".

That is actually how it works, if you don't have "flows" you don't have accounting postings and if you have to fix an error you redo the postings from the flows. In this sense I would say that the "flows" are the source of truth.
Makes me wonder why they made the risky move in the first place, they surely knew the risks, but still did it, because of greed for higher yields?
Wow, is this common? From a systems perspective it seems like pure folly, increasing systemic risk and reducing resilience. (from SVB’s perspective I’m sure it seemed great …) it feels like it should be illegal !
I'm guessing that all these schemes timeshare one resource - people - who then diversify their enterprises by wearing two hats.

Sort of how a convenience store has a storefront, then keeps leveraging it by adding things like moneygrams and lottery ticket sales and utility bill payments and so on...

I also think there must be crops that benefit from shading. Either the crops grow well in indirect sunlight, or the area is too hot/sunny for the direct sunlight crops.
He will run on the vague impression people had of him being a cool guy who smokes weed for the next 2 decades. I hope he goes to Mars so we don't have to hear about him, or at least we'll have an 8 minute delay?
All that matters is that enough of them are like this.
fox news was quite literally built as an answer to "how do we stop watergate from happening again to the republican party"

look up the roger ailes papers from when it was founded
The brakes have to match the accelerator on the car, or you're going to be in for a hard time -- even if that means the car will go slower. You have to figure it out differently. Things will go fine (really well, in fact) during expansion, but come contraction, all hell breaks loose.

And what's coming isn't just an indictment of all of that. We're about to find out what happens when you go Full Monty off of commodity-based currency such as the US with the Nixon Shock in 1971. It's a multi-generational event, so most of us alive don't know. But we all will soon.
This is the essence of the moral hazard created by the bank bailouts in 2008
Nope. But he seemed afraid if it, whatever it was. Maybe something that would lead to jail instead of financial losses? That would make sense I guess.

The number everyone threw around was that $1 billion penalty he agreed to. People here on HN said it would never be that high.

$1 billion seems cheap compared to what he’s lost by now.

The only other explanation that makes sense to me is he was so far down the conspiracy rabbit hole he was willing to lose billions to prove an imaginary conspiracy because… it would make him more famous and popular?

I’d love to know the truth of all of this some day.
Well that does seem short-sighted. :(
EU pensioners will soon have to prove their fitness to drive from the age of 70
I don't know about "growing crops", but a farm outside the city where I live has sheep grazing under/around solar panels.
Why does google not allow "doomed" projects to spin out and try the luck outside the company?
I think big question really is has any other banks "invested" their deposits in similar manner. So could there be others that will go down if bank run is encouraged?
Gold star for you
I can tell you are no farmer. No tractor is needed in a field maintained by grazing. If tbe panels are mounted high enough sunlight will be cast on the ground for a period each day.
Is Classical Music “Dying”?
Doesn't matter if it's physical cash or an electronic ledger since both the electronic ledger and the physical green pieces of paper are liabilities of the banking system, specifically for US dollars they're both liabilities of the Federal Reserve.
That is not what insolvent means though. There is a difference in not being able to pay back depositors bc you gambled it away on magic beans vs it’s tied up in safe bonds. In both situations you can’t satisfy depositors immediately, but they’re otherwise very different.

For one thing, people buy companies that are insolvent, eg svb, they don’t buy magic bean farms, eg ftx.
One way to generate interest is to simply park it at the Fed. Check out The Narrow Bank for the story of an upstart that wanted to make that their whole business model.

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2018/09/fed-nixes-narrow-...
It's weird to me that text encoding is put in the domain of the kernel. But I guess it's the way it needs to be until the world moves to microkernels.
This is especially tricky for people to hear, because most of the talk around LLMs is actually about LLMs personified.

Prediction certainly is one of the things we do with language. That doesn't mean it is the only thing!

It's my contention that most of the behavior people are excited about LLMs exhibiting is really still human behavior that was captured and saved as data into the language itself.

LLMs are not modeling grammar or language: they are modeling language examples. Human examples. Language echoes human thought, so it's natural for a model of that behavior (a model of humans using language) to echo the same behavior (human thought).

Let's not forget, as exciting as it may be, that an echo is not an emulation.
>> Think of all the data that has entered all your senses in your entire lifetime. More than goes into ChatGPT, I'll tell you that.

The question is how much of that was only text data, or only language anyway. Th e answer is- not that much, really. Chomsky's famous point about "the poverty of the stimulus" was based on research that showed human children learn to speak their native languages from very few examples of it spoken by the adults around them. They certainly don't learn from many petabytes of text as in the entire web.

If you think about it, if humans relied on millions of examples to learn to speak a language we would never have learned to speak in the first place. Like, back whenever we started speaking as a species. There was certainly nothing like human language back then, so there weren't any examples to learn from. Try that for "zero-shot learning".

Then again, there's the issue that there are many, many animals that receive the same, or even richer, "data" from their senses throughout their lives, and still never learn to speak a single word.

Humans don't just learn from examples, and the way we learn is nothing like the way in which statistical machine learning algorithms learn from examples.
It's understood that we're going to be affected and that its a when not if in some peoples minds. The thing is that we have more direct and present climate change issues so sea level rise which is slow (to date) is not figured in planning compared to existing sources of higher mean tide such as land sinking, combined with big rain events. Brisbane where I live already has king tide events swamping some streets. 10cm is enough to be potentially problematic, never mind 1.5m.

"The river with a city problem" is a good read about the insanity of building greater Brisbane on a giant floodplain.

Kiribati is already under. We get quite a lot about Oceania problems, displacement.

I think thwaites is still treated as the next generations problem.
>What are his viewpoints and how are they amplified considering anybody can post anything?

It's more complicated than just the ability to post. Never discount the power of the algorithm. And that can be tinkered with:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-15/musk-forc...
it takes fewer people to oil a machine than it took to build it
But these are elites. Can't be prosecuted if no prosecutor will bother to apply the law fairly to everyone.
istat menus.

https://bjango.com/mac/istatmenus/
I mean when has Peter Thiel ever said anything meaningful and can actually make the world better in a predictable fashion? Never. He complains about not having flying cars and having Twitter while never working on anything meaningful. People like him are a real curse on the American spirit of freedom and entrepreneurship. One lucky investment in a random social network and people keep linking to them.
If it's mildly morally wrong it can be harmless/handled civilly when done on a small scale, but require a criminal punishment on a large scale.
Whoah whoah whoa. I don't care for Elon, but let's be intentional about using "far-right". [Caveat: Assume USA left and right parties are discussed] If we keep throwing that around when we mean right leaning or politically right views then anyone on the right is going to be "far-right" and we're never going to work together. I think that the other comments to you are to point out where Elon has fascist or Nazism beliefs. Maybe use https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Far-right_politics as a start?
Aaaand, it's gone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3AM00DH0Zo
> Maybe once those plans were noticed, they would have been resisted and thwarted by people who wanted to retain their power within the organization.

I'm perplexed by the mental gymnastics you had to resort to to try to deflect any responsibility from Musk, let alone the despair to omit any reference to the extremely poor judgement and outright incompetence it takes to pull this sort of stunt, and instead fabricate this theory where this impulsive shot in the foot was actually a brilliant plan to thwart entrenched interests.

Occam's razor and Musk's track record reject this hypothesis. Musk f-ed up, just like he keeps on f-ing up, like the recent shit fest of Musk posting a stream of brain dead and profoundly I'll advised tweets trying to publicly smear a employee with disabilities.
> Anecdotes aren’t going to answer that question

If only a tech recruitment company would publish biannual findings from their factual observations of the whole industry, they'd have a strong evidence-based vantage point which none of us individual tech workers have. They could use a catchy name like "Hired dot com" and people would write news articles about their findings.

Oh well.
Most bailouts are done to protect employees and union contracts, not management.