skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
I'm sorry, but the sports betting analogy is hilariously wrongheaded. In order to set any prices at all, books have reasonably good models for the sports they offer, including NFL. But these models are not and do not need to be perfect, in order for a profitable business model to exist. There are in fact, plenty of "sharps" who can beat the books on certain sports or certain types of markets (e.g. maybe you can model O/U markets very well, but money line not so much).

The book does not "stop taking bets" on the entire event in question. The book simply has to limit the "sharp" individually. Of course then we get into the whole cat and mouse game of chasing sharp action through straw bettors and playing games of information theory (i.e. how much money can a sharp win while still plausibly not outing themselves as an obvious sharp).

The book only would have a serious problem, if the entire world became sharp and every bettor was betting sharply. But alas there you have a paradox: anyone who is currently a sharp, has a strong self interest to preserve the secrecy of their models and methods, because knowing something that nobody else knows is precisely what creates their edge. And so therefore, as long as sharps have this self-interest, then there is no problem for books to keep operating, and the problem is reduced to one of identifying and limiting sharps occasionally (basically a "cost of doing business" that books acknowledge).

The only way for the scenario you describe to happen, is for disinterested actors with no thought of profit for themselves, to not only "solve" a particular market, but also release it to the entire world and make it a commodity. I'm not saying it's impossible, but I'm saying that normal economic incentives work against this outcome.
"This" means "this sort of thing" and I'm willing to bet the hate is based on confirmed instances in the past.
Many people use firearms for recreation, and I agree that they are great fun. They are designed to put force on a target at range. If you only care about the recreation aspects, you'll be equally happy with a paintball or BB gun.
Then, nefarious is the key to judge.
> Amendments are very clear when they are intended to replace prior language

No, actually, compared to most statutes, Constitutional Amendments tend to be extremely vague on that point, with the language rendered inoperative needing to be inferred from the conflict between its effect and the clear meaning of the new language.

> There is also the fact that 14th Amendment was passed 150 years ago and Congress has voted to raise the debt limit, and the President has signed those laws, many many times since then. That precedent imbues the debt limit with legal authority

No, practice without legal challenge does not create legal precedent; otherwise, it would be a backdoor way for federal authorities to amend the Constitution without the required involvement of the states so long as they constrain themselves to situations where there weren’t non-federal parties with standing to challenge actions.

Moreover, to the extent that it involves cases where Congress would have standing to sue ab initio, allowing practice to change the substantive legal rule would violate the well-established principal that Congress cannot bind future Congresses.
Honestly I’d prefer admission of an athlete who prioritizes an Ivy League degree over money to admission of one more silver-spoon legacy.
Show HN: A note-taking app that supports frame-by-frame video notes
As a DIYer I've watched a few car repair videos on YouTube. Many times while working I thought to myself, "can I bookmark this specific frame" since I found fumbling with my phone with dirty hands to be annoying.

Then I started taking fitness more seriously and watched a lot of exercise videos. I frequently took screenshots and added them to a OneNote page, along with notes, so I could make sure my form was correct. I didn't really enjoy the OneNote mobile experience and ended up just rewatching videos in the gym, which I felt was a waste of time.

Finally, I decided to build an app that integrated FFmpeg with a browser-based UI that allowed users to watch videos and take notes at the same time. I've also integrated this with yt-dlp to enable easier downloads from YouTube (Rumble downloads are also possible but the UX could be improved).

Since viewing notes on my phone was a top priority, the paid version of the app exports mobile-friendly responsive HTML files. The HTML has embedded images so they load correctly on Google Drive or Dropbox's mobile apps.

The app also supports taking text notes with a QuillJS based editor. Currently, the text and video features are largely disjoint features but I hope to further integrate the two in the future, e.g. including video note printouts in text notes.

In the future I also plan to include Markdown exports so the notes can be easily integrated with other apps like Obsidian or Joplin.
This thread is why y'all need to focus on engineering and leave finance to professionals. Banks have assets (mostly bonds) and liabilities (mostly deposits).

Both of these items have a duration. They have to match the duration between their assets and their liabilities or they end up insolvent. If enough of the depositors try to pull their money out of the bank, then that reduces the duration of the banks liabilities, and the bank won't be able to move quickly enough to sell their assets to stay solvent.

The tech companies that are complaining about FDIC intervention caused their own problems because they are panicked morons.

Even more ridiculous is any one of these mega tech firms could probably step in and solve this situation with a cash infusion. They would almost certainly come out ahead because they would be buying a claim on the bank's assets for less than they are worth. But they won't. Because they don't know what they're doing.

What happened here is no different than what has happened in every banking crisis pre-08. The economy will be fine, someone like Berkshire Hathaway will make a stupid amount of money and customers will blame a bank for a problem that they created by being stupid.
Jet Engine Fundamentals [video]
They managed to run it on a phone:
https://www.qualcomm.com/news/onq/2023/02/worlds-first-on-de...
>just stop serving unnecessary cookies.

If they were truly unnecessary they wouldn't use it because cookie banners are bad ux.
That's like saying: "We'll never know if humans evolved or if god created them or if they came from somewhere else". You make a hypothesis, you investigate, you gather data, you validate. Just because the CN gov isn't cooperating doesn't mean we have to pretend this is an epistemological blackhole.
First, I don't think you're being realistic about how tracking works nowadays. Google will will link your new "anonymous" account to your established tracking profile as soon as you access it from a device or geographical location associated with your existing account. This is true even if you never visit any Google owned domain, through the magic of shared tracking IDs.

Second, your position rests on the assumption that this hypothetical federal ID will be mandatory. How will it be "required"? By whom? If the government makes a federal oauth, and it works well, sure, some webapps might require it, but they can also just require your identity today. I think you haven't wrapped your mind around the idea that any big tech company that doesn't already have your identity doesn't want it. Google doesn't care about your SSN, they care about your browsing and shopping history, but the day they decide they want it, they'll demand it, and you'll comply or go without Google services (and they'll probably get it from data sharing partner anyway). None of that would change due to what I'm proposing.
you need 3 or 4 people to run a _little_ coffee shack? I'd say 2 are sufficient with proper organization and expectation management.

and why 17 to 20 year olds? that's so oddly specific. I don't like being served by teenagers.

also you write that's what _you_ want to _do_ with your retirement? what are you doing there? the dishes? the book keeping? sit around sipping coffee feeling very important?
Those are simply common correlate effects. Inflation is really rather simple, it is inflation of the money supply, i.e., printing more Monopoly money for oneself, knockoff purses, using chemicals to create fake honey, it’s what counterfeiters do … whether it’s some North Koreans or the federal government … its fraud, criminal, illegal, immoral, evil, and a clear indicator of illegitimacy of this or any government that does what this fake government has done.
Black and white photos are just missing information - specifically color. No new made up information is introduced.
A brief interview with Rexx creator Mike Cowlishaw
The FDIC is funded by premiums paid for by the insured banks. It doesn’t rely on tax payer money.
The site is completely unusable on my iphone. It’s the equivalent of submitting a leetcode interview question in brainfuck - sure, it’s difficult, but it also shows terrible judgement.
I'm not sure on the category, maybe law enforcement case management? I can't remember the name of the software I used (it was 20 years ago) but here is an example of one:

https://www.kaseware.com/government/law-enforcement/
> How accurate can they possibly get with climate change modeling?

At least as accurate as weather reports, which can be pretty reliable days in advance. The outcome of a football match often can't be predicted accurately during the match. This should suggest that the atmosphere and a sport are qualitatively different things.

> What happens if they say the climate is fine?

They go into some other statistical modelling field, probably to do with meteorology, and we start to get accurate weather reports two weeks in advance.

It's not like high-level sports players, who have specialised into that sport, and are unlikely to ever be high-level players of any other sport. (If anything, there are incentives for high-level sports players to throw games to keep them more exciting! Maybe that's why we can't predict the games? It's not, but what if it were?)
I wish the "here" links had some sort of status text or hover text, why would I just blindly click links?
That is an interesting idea, but it won't happen, because Congress won't "delete" the money. Instead, they'll spend it.
I cant tell whether the parent comment is disingenuous though it looks a lot like it, but I will take it at face value.

The models created by the oil companies back in the 70s seem to be “breathtakingly accurate” [1]

Second, the problem with your analogy is that with football you expect the prediction to be X team will win, and similarly expect the predictions to be X weather event at $place will occur. The problem with your expectations of predictions regarding the latter is the sample space.

The sample space is so large that extreme weather events will occur $somewhere. Predicting exactly where and their trajectories is difficult due to chaos and the complexity of the system. There is a bound on our capacity to predict exact events long ahead of time. However, what we can do is give a probability of the event occurring over a large enough region. When you scale said region to the earth, we can ignore very small details and focus on the bigger picture, which is that the variance in weather in creases.

The problem with an increasing variance is that extreme events occur more frequently in all directions. Meaning high and low temperatures, droughts and floods and so on.

To observe this in action, a year or so ago europe had severe floods that killed many people and simultaneously over the next summer experienced historic droughts.

The sample space strikes again and we saw historic droughts in China too.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/12/exxon-clima...

[2] Firmament, by Dr Simon Clark
This is mostly about tracing crypto transactions. I don't see how the government can't just seize your keys, or freeze/seize your exchange assets. I can think of ways around key seizure if you literally just memorise your keys, then only storing them encrypted. But now we're talking about some intensely tech and security savy antivax truckers here...
Treausurydirect is a great investment vehicle, but it doesn't replace a bank account.

I can't deposit my paycheck there, I can't get a debit card and pay for groceries with it. I can't write a check to pay my rent.

Unfortunately doing those things requires a private bank.
It doesn't use CoreML so it should work on Intel machines at some speed.

If it used the GPU/ANE and was a true large language model then it would only work on M1 systems because they're unified memory (which nothing except an A100 can match.)
I can't pay for groceries or rent with a T bill. I still need a bank account with a checkbook or debit card to do those things.
I was hoping for an alternative to Photos, the only Google service I still use.
Why the quotes? 25% of deposits being withdrawn within a day is pretty much the definition of a bank run, isn't it?
> Over the weekend, Germany conducted a hard and close-fought election with calm, ease and not a peep about voter fraud

Yeah, I'm gonna trust this guy for sure.
I'm going to give an unpopular (in the sense of raw user numbers) suggestion: Swift deployed to AWS Lambda.

You can use a shared database, deployment is easy, the language is pleasant and fast. https://www.swift.org/server/guides/deploying/aws-sam-lambda...
OP here, you're right! Argh, this is embarrassing. Thanks for spotting this, fixed now.
If you knew your bank was going to fail in about six months, what would be your plan of action?

set up your stock sales.

hire a risk officer.

what else?
We're probably using more carbon now, then in the 90s. You have to look at the total carbon output of the world.
I believe this is called "talking your book" and it should be your default assumption of investor behavior.
Muchly hated and contested convention. One easily misused and misunderstood.

I will say…

All introverts know they are introverts

All those introspective figure out they are introspective (by full psychological maturity.)

All thinkers know they’re thinkers (and not feelers.)

Although…

Introverts can learn to “socialize” and even extroverts sometimes need to be “alone.”

Thinkers can feel and there are a lot of intelligent “emotes”.

Rather than a pseudo-astrological reading, after ~two decades contemplating psychological temperaments (and their cognitive strategies) I have had these revelations:

The most common important characteristics in group dynamics are N/S and J/P. These are as our “IO”. Those who introspect relate using abstract internal systems of rules and those who are extrospective are more keen toward empirical details.

Those who are “J”udging enact in abstract ways, and those “P”erceiving affect literal changes (these are the most poorly named.)

Other attributes are dynamic enough to be changed or augmented by effort (our versatile selves.)

This system reveals who communicates well with who (J=>N; P=>S), thus why some people can talk and talk and talk and not “relate” to certain others (NJ’s and SP’s will forever psychologically misalign.)

Not to be used to qualify who can get a particular job done, as our mind’s “convolution strategies” allow every obstacle to be solved through determination and resourcefulness.
You're right I overestimated how fast we talk!
From https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34719677 - "The software displays "* * *" when the comment is neither dead nor deleted, but the viewer doesn't have permission to see the text."

And https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34694341 - "In the future, please do as https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html ask and send such questions to hn@ycombinator.com"
The analogy kind of breaks down because black swans all look the same so I'll propose switching to snowflake events. Each one is beautiful and unique and we're starting to head into a flurry of them.
I think you may be overestimating the complexity. The better idea is to set up and experiment with different simulation parameters, and see how far they diverge from actual observed behavior.
Lake Tahoe actually has a small dam. If I did the numbers right, the spillway is only 6 feet above what the natural outlet was.
But they are:
https://research.google/teams/connectomics/
Without paywall: https://sci-hub.se/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-02...
It could be simulated slowly at first.
Ask yourself - if you were the CN government, with all of the information you're withholding from scientists, researchers, NGOs, etc. If you truly believe it was a zoonotic origin wouldn't you do everything possible to exonerate yourself?

Again, if you were the CN government and it was a lab leak that got out of control, what would you do/say.

All I'm saying is - if they shared the basic data that international researchers and NGOs were asking for, we'd be MUCH closer to the truth...a rather inconvenient one for them.
I still don't see the vision. What does this do well enough that I care to have a drone deliver?

Doing a capability matrix compared to other options, now does this win? Fun to work on? Anything else?
The main one that's pretty much impossible to find an alternative to is YouTube (if you're into watching videos on the Internet). Tons of creators/channels only upload their content on YouTube and nowhere else.
just because something is high performance does not means it cannot be improved by say another 2X. My point was not whether its usable or not, it is that if you are going to run on CPU vectorization is rather important part and its odd that the landing page has no remark about it.
> relatively small regional bank

Top 1% of U.S. banks is not "relatively small." Technically regional, but had locations across the country. I'm in Utah there's a location across the street from my office.

> why

It was tech-forward and offered debt financing based on ARR.

Why do >90% of online retailer companies use Shopify? If it's better, people will use it.
It will also make a lot of simple machine-learning models obsolete. It's just not that obvious yet.

Imagine feeding a query akin to the one below to GPT4 (expected to have a 50,000-token context), and then, to GPT5, GPT6, etc.:

query = f"The guidelines for approving or denying a loan are: {guidelines}.
Here are sample application that were approved: {sample_approvals}.
Here are sample applications that were denied: {sample_denials}.
Please approve or deny the following loans: {loan_applications}.
Write a short note explaining your decision for every application."

decisions = LLM(query)

Whether you like it or not, this kind of use of LLMs looks almost inevitable, because it will give nontechnical execs something they have always wanted: the ability to "read and understand" the machine's "reasoning." They machine will give them what they have always wanted: an explanation in plain English.
>I think if you're doing LOTS of writes to something you don't care a lot about - a ramdisk might be a nice way to prevent you from killing your SSD.

>Say, most things you put in /var

Even a bottom of the barrel QLC SSD can handle 100GB of writes per day without problems. Therefore it's unlikely that moving stuff in /var (random log/temporary files) off the SSD is going to change its lifespan by much.
> The fact that we, as a nation, are still talking about the debt limit is proof that no one with any authority actually believes this theory.

No, its proof that no one has thought that it the best choice given the then-current political situation was to test it. Given that Executive/Congressional relations rely on working relationships, and that a successful challenge (by the Executive, Congress would never be the party to challenge) rather than making a deal where it is possible has the potential to poison that relationship and sink a President’s legislative agenda, there is a strong incentive not topush the issue, irrespective of the merits, except in the worst conceivable pre-existing relation between a President and a faction holding the power to obstruct debt limit increases in at least one house. (This is a similar reason to why you see adherence to the War Powers Act even by administrations that have characterized it as an unconstitutional usurpation of inherent executive power on the part of Congress, that has only the legal effect – where it facially limits the President – of a non-binding request by Congress.)
`Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex`
No bank with $1T in assets will ever have a shortfall of only $1m - it’s too easy to shuffle things around to move the problem forward another day or whatever.

A bank the size of SVB has a whole team that does that - it’s just a necessary part of operating at that scale.

Blowups like SVB happen when an entire team of financial experts have tried everything - and have nothing left they can do.

Then it blows up big, because all their other moves ‘come due’ at once.
RISC-V may become the open source ARM, or it may be a complete bust. At this point, either could happen. As it is now, there are only a few hardware implementations and all of them are dog slow compared to ARM.
Almost all failed banks (including SVB) in recent history held more assets than deposits. Liquidity is the issue.

Imagine you take your $10 million fortune and convert it all into gold bars and hide it under you bed. Then you order a pizza. When the pizza guy shows up, even though you are "rich," you are also in that moment broke and can't pay for the pizza. Not only will the pizza guy not take gold, you can't find someone to convert your gold into cash before the pizza guy gives up and leaves.
I pointed that out in the caveats since that happened with Google Maps, but in practice I don't think it'll happen (or if it happens it will only be a slight increase) since that would seriously upset its users. Especially since the low price was likely due to competition anyways.

In the case of Google Maps it was effectively a monopoly.
Saying that RPC8.5 is based on wrong assumptions and then explaining that we should take IEA's scenario as a new basis seems weird. IEA is not exactly very good at predictions either...
I suppose things might have changed in ~half a century, the FDA used to care about everything.

Back in the late '80s the VAX-11/750 that was part of the Siemens MRI scanners was shipped in the old blue trim color long after DEC had switched to the very chic "brown on tan" color scheme. The FDA approval for the scanner would not let them change the color of the paint because of some bleedover of medication regulation language into the equipment approval regulations.
who is angry?

im just stating the obvious, idk why you feel the need to defend this, but if you are affiliated with the team then just go back to the drawing board and dont waste your time trying to talk people into liking this. it's a sensationalist claim, obviously people will dispute it.