This article made me thing about the idea of "cohort" disadvantage (as opposed to generational disadvantage).[1] It's not so much which decade you were born in, but whether you were born a year or two before or after a recession.

I remember, during the dot com boom of the late 90s, how much my impressions of the working world differed from people who graduated just a few years after me. I graduated from UCSD into the recession of the early 1990s, and I was living in SoCal, which was unusually hard hit. Graduates of very elite colleges were getting career-building jobs (UCSD is well regarded, but it wasn't quite in the tier to provide that immunity), and very in demand STEM majors were still getting good offers, but a lot of college grads were stringing together multiple service industry gigs. I'm really not kidding when I say that 5 years later, English majors thought the main difference between college and the working world is that now you can easily find well-paid work in media companies and your employer pays for the booze and parties (though finding an apartment in SF was a nightmare compared to the recession).

I suspect it's this way for people who graduated on the wrong side of the 2008 banking crisis as well. It's not Gen X or Millennials or Z, it's a much narrower time frame.

Some of this is definitely about resilience. I personally allowed it to affect me too heavily. I went back to college to study engineering and never really managed to shake the belief that I'm only as employable as my most up-to-date hard skills. The idea that a smart person can enter a new field and learn on the job... I know it's true, but I've never quite been able to really believe it. This has made me too conservative.

Not everyone from my cohort responded this way, but I do think it's more likely among people whose first few formative years in the workforce happen during a very poor hiring climate. The thing is, as I learned from he next bust - if you have a job before the recession, you often manage to hang onto it, and by the time the next boom rolls around, you're well positioned to take advantage. Even if you lose your job after a couple of years, you have some experience locked in, and you understand how it all works, and you know that there really are jobs, that things will improve, and that you just need to weather the storm. But for people who've never really experienced anything else, I think it creates higher risk mental habits of risk aversion that can be hard to shake. I also think that once a better hiring climate resumes, employers are more likely to go to colleges to recruit for entry level positions, and tend to overlook people who graduated several years earlier but lack relevant experience.

I've read that this effect is much more muted among very elite college grads, and I strongly suspect the same is true for a few very in demand STEM majors at non-elite colleges. Since this is hacker news, I can describe it as a vector field. People who are just on the wrong side of the line can get swept into a completely downward vector field than people just a couple spots before or after on the X-axis. Very elite college grads and some STEM majors can re-enter that positive, upward vector field at a later date.

[1] https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/policy-brief/recessi...