skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
2008 lasted nearly 17 months. The hard part is deciding when the recession actually started. The media and government is in denial, so they'd tell you we aren't even in a recession yet. But the rule of thumb is typically two negative quarters of GDP growth, which we hit this summer.

If you run a VC backed business my suggestion is 24-30 months of runway is a good starting point.

As far as individuals go, it's not a bad idea to mirror this advice. Have essentially 2 to 2.5 years of income saved in the event that you get laid off and can't find a job for a long time. Hopefully it never comes to that, but it never hurts to be prepared.
The pumping lemma [0] nested triangles is one of my favorites: https://iq.opengenus.org/content/images/2021/09/pumping-lemm...

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumping_lemma_for_context-free...
> They couldn't do a massive layoff in the past because it would get them bad rep

Forget about "bad rep", it was a bad economic decision: why let go a slight underperformer (a now-known 0.8x engineer) that you hired in 2015 at pay X, if in exchange you hire a "expected normal 1.0x engineer", but at a price of 1.8*X in 2021 due to crazy escalation of SWE salaries in that period.

(Assuming you have a perfected/more picky hiring process that knows the median hire will be a 1.0x engineer)

Now in 2023, the situation is different: you can hire a "expected normal 1.0x engineer" but at pay 0.8*X (adjusted for inflation - ratios all made up)
s/I've often read/It has been proposed

At least the people who advance this idea should investigate unlimited PTO policies. Because if true it's akin to enforcing a policy that lower women's compensation.
I make a good wage and the first thing I'll do if I get the boot is stop buying things from the plebs. No eating out and paying the cook. No day care paying the working class daycare worker. No buying lumber for house projects paying the logger and mill worker. No cars paying the auto worker. etc, etc. Less toys for the kid meaning less trucking and shipping work.

Compound that at scale and it will definitely have an effect.
This is all about inflation, not housing. Housing is just going to get caught in the crossfire.

If you have a low mortgage, hang onto that! Otherwise standard advice applies, try to keep at least 6 months expenses in cash or cash equivalents. Don’t make big purchases.
If you'd like more insight on where this is going, I'd recommend looking into Jeremy Grantham.

He called this correctly in 2021, before it burst:
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/grantham-this-is-a-bub...

He feels there is still farther to fall (and I agree with him there):
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/prepare-for-an-epic-...

Falling stock prices are really a reflection of real-world problems - while it obviously feels in the US like everything is fine (judging from the many comments saying this here on this thread), everything is not fine, companies looking at their P/L and laying off staff are not fine, and the Fed is deliberately going to cause a recession and cause unemployment to stop inflation, which is a very brutal and indirect tool to do so.

This will not be a soft landing.
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Making decision to go right or left with Binary Search
Approach to a tricky binary search question [No solution discussed]
The problem with that should be obvious.

Mold does not detonate nuclear weapons, emitting gamma rays into deep space, nor does it have an RF noise bubble out to 50 light years.

An optical survey of our atmosphere would demonstrate techno-signatures. Any observers in NEO would see city lights and pick up radio stations. Radar observation would reveal aircraft.
I was skeptical as well, but it seems well explained here https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/10/openais-attempts-to-waterm...
I totally agree the distinction exists, just wanted to say https://flowchart.fun/ is nice because you can run layout algorithms and then tweak to your liking w/in the same editor
> ...likely have some non-compliance with the current electrical code.

When I build my own residence from scratch, I'm going for a more industrial loft aesthetic vibe where all utilities are run outside the walls where they are easily accessible to frequently modify them as I please. I want to be able to frequently update to code without making a giant, expensive mess, followed by a validation inspection from a licensed electrician. How we build residences today is not compatible with my desires for a sustainable, durable, maintenance- and repair-friendly implementation.
Yes. They do. If you support the death penalty then you’re probably in need of therapy to figure out some deep traumas.
Every company charges as much as it thinks it can for a product. If that counts as price gouging, almost 100% of all the companies that exist must be guilty of it!
Which is why Spain and USA did what they did.
I disagree with the notion of “beneficial imbalance” here. It’s likely that we may be thinking of the same thing when I’m talking about “optimizing or specializing for a sport”, but I will never use my notion as an argument against training the essentials. You‘re not going to be a more successful (and more importantly, _safe_) rock climber, boulderer, or mountaineer without a baseline strength in the essential muscle groups because those will keep your whole body stable and your posture as it should be while you’re wiggling your body about vertical surfaces. Well-rounded baseline strength could very well spell the difference between life and death especially for the activities that you mentioned.

There’s also the fact that should rock climbers, boulderers, and mountaineers have lives and real jobs outside what they do for recreation, then the reality is that they have a variety of bodily movements that just need to be generally done with, again, good posture, which you simply can’t have with an imbalance in the essentials.
It would be helpful to have a tutorial how to use the IDE, preferably a video, I just spent 10 minutes with it and can't seem to figure it out. I doubt that it's a lack of intelligence on my side. Even though, one never knows.

I also got some 404 for some css files
California (or silicon valley) Prius is the other moniker I've heard
> But this is what I'm asking -- does it actually require knowing the gender, or does it just need the pronoun to line up with the variant of the word?

That's one and the same the way I understand your question. Gender implies a specific pronoun. Though there can be exceptions, like where the "sea" in Spanish can be both a "he" or a "she", and which a famous poem uses to a hard to translate effect by alternating between both.

But, and I say this very seriously, translation is very lacking in things being "just" something. Eg, see this for a discussion of more issues:

https://manpages.ubuntu.com/manpages/bionic/man3/Locale::Mak...

> Does the Russian language allow you to mismatch pronouns and gendered variants of words with each other when referring to the same subject? Because if it doesn't, you don't need to know the gender, just the pronoun, and then you need to match the gendered variants of words to the pronoun.

Russian allows for sentences without any pronouns, or only neutral ones. Eg, the sentence "I forgot", in Russian has "I" as not indicating any gender, and it only being present in the ending of "forgot". You have to understand Russian grammar and cases to extract it from there. And yet "I know" is gender neutral. It's funny like that.

> This is also not what I'm asking. I'm not auto-translating games, I'm attempting to build systems where the options and information I'm collecting would allow a translator to translate that game.

I'm not talking about auto anything. I'm talking about that support for translation in a game is complex and requires serious planning. Any time you're composing a sentence from parts is likely a place where complexity will explode exponentially as you add support for more languages.

There's also all sorts of weird quirks to consider. Eg, if you have some sort of mystery, in Russian gender appears pretty much everywhere, so if your mystery murderer is one of the few women in the setting, then Russian makes it nigh impossible for anybody to refer to her, or for her to talk about herself, and not drastically reduce the list of suspects by instantly revealing it has to be a woman.

If you truly like to suffer, have a place where you form a string of the form of "$PERSON picked up $COUNT $ITEMS".

In some languages you need the gender of $PERSON, and it'll affect the verb. You'll need to know the right declension of each item that can be possibly picked up. Plurals of course need to be accounted for, and in Russian the forms of "file" for amounts of 1, 2 and 5 are different. So a little thing like that can balloon into pages worth of weird and complex code.

An additional fun quirk is polite language and honorifics. "Do you want some coffee?" can be said to anyone in English, has formal and informal forms in Russian and Spanish, and a whole bunch of possibilities in Japanese. If you happen to mention 5 different people in a Japanese sentence you'll likely make it clear who's your younger sister, who's a classmate, who's your superior, and who's the jerk you hate.
100g of salted mozzarella has 300 calories, saturated fat, and sodium. Ultimately, pizza is basically 3 ingredients: bread, tomato sauce, and mozzarella. Most people don’t consider those individual ingredients particularly unhealthy.
Even more it still seems like it’s mainly companies who doubled their headcount since COVID started because someone extrapolated the madness to last forever? I sure hope the first in line for layoffs are the people who thought that was a great idea
The old Usborne books as a kid

https://www.fastcompany.com/3056519/design-lessons-from-the-...

They released them as free pdfs a while back, but I can't find it now. Looks like they stopped that.
I'm not sure how I can word this better. There's a difference between paying out the same amount to every person, versus picking specific things to put money into. I'm sure you can figure out what I mean.

> it's completely authoritarian because there's nothing voluntary about it

Yeah okay. It's exactly as authoritarian as every other tax. I thought you were using normal person language; I'm not going to argue semantics.
The voltage started at 220 way before the 60s, and then increased incrementally over the years, until standardizing at 240V. I don't know when the first bump past 220 happened exactly, and it may not have been simultaneous in all areas. I gather the reason for the standardization was to stop the creep and pick a voltage to stick with for everyone.
I've used it a bunch. It's pretty good! I think the Java API could use more types and less mutation but it works well.
> All they do is benefit the company through removal of a liability in terms of PTO hours from the company books.

They also facilitate hard to identify discrimination, including on prohibited bases, and enable social pressure to reduce total time off taken.

And none of those effects are accidental.
Thanks for this fascinating insight. The jankyness you describe lines-up exactly with what I'm seeing here.

If H616 was the mainstream/volume chip box to have in 2021, then I'm super-interested to see what their 2023 H618 boxes look like. They are all over Amazon with loads of reviews on YouTube, just like its predecessor.

Considering the interest this write-up has generated I'm inclined get one and 'take the bullet' to see if this behaviour is continues. Given your insight about how these chips get sold, chances seem quite high.
I mean if the people who believe those things vote Red, they're Red. You can use whatever terms you want, but if Red is the Right, then people who are Red and have views that are far from mainstream...

I don't take offense at anyone being called far left or far right because I'm an independent. If Biden loses and Blue people storm the Capitol, they'd be terrorists too.
I usually use Sapphire Pulse ones.
You don't maximize profits long term by killing (parts of) the market you rely on. Sales are at an all-time low because of the high prices, and if they continue like that the whole PC gaming market will evaporate.

Companies are under no obligation to follow short term profits, that an US myth.

Also, if you are in a market with very few participants there is no healthy mechanism of offer and demand. These companies are able to dictate prices at will, and that can be price gouging (which is why Intel entering the gpu market with a competitive product would be so important, three vendors is better than two).
It goes beyond simply color. For example, there are people who are racist against East Asians, and if you only showed them the color on a palette, that wouldn't be enough for them to think anything of it. They'd have to see other features, and suddenly this data field has gone from text to imagery.
But space is beyond vast and there are no shortage of rocks out there. I don't think that's really a concern.

Plot devices like aliens attacking Earth for her water really burns me up. The universe is brimming with water and materials. Why expend the effort to lift water out of a gravity well, when you can just gather it from comets and asteroids and not have pesky humans shooting at you?
> They are charging more because they can, it’s the definition of price gouging.

I'm getting price gouged when I buy SPY stock then, and gouging someone when I sell it.
I am not sure if they are dumb, the jury is still out, but your entire post is the textboom example of logical fallacy, appeal to authority.

You are claiming that AMD leadership is infalliable based on no evidence whatsoever. Thats whats absurd
We don't have any clear definitions for "creativity" to begin with. In practice, in these contexts, it seems to be defined as "whatever only humans can do" - that is, the goalposts are automatically moved with every AI advancement.
It's for a military helicopter? It looks more vulnerable to shrapnel than what I imagine it's replacing. Is that so, and is that an important consideration?
More controlled by who?
Replacing your Dockerfile with Go code
Wouldn't put it so angrily, but yeah, there isn't really such thing as price gouging on such a nonessential product.
there are places like you describe and they get along just fine without those underground car roads. if you're going to the enormous expense of tunneling you should get your money's worth by building high-capacity transit.
This is why I hate unlimited PTO. To my workaholic former boss, abusing PTO meant taking anything beyond a week at Christmas and a day off on a federal holiday. For a more reasonable boss it might mean 4 weeks off a year, or it might mean 8 or it might mean 16. May as well ask people to take unlimited salary but don't abuse it.

I like your mandatory minimum idea if it very close to whatever the company views as the reasonable maximum.
100% agreed. 90% of computer science/engineering related topics can be explained using annotated boxes and arrows. The thing is you have to have someone to explain them in english cause theyre as good as meaningless without context
Is there anything genuinely innovative about Swift or is it just another "cross-platform scripting language" that I'll only see on 1 platform?

The only reason I learned Powershell is because I have to admin for Windows. At least Powershell is interesting for its pipeline and object handling. I get not one spark of joy from Swift, and the comments I see are "at least we're not writing C anymore". Stockholm syndrome.

Sorry this is so negative, but I can't get excited about $NewLanguage unless I know it offers real benefit. I have drunk the Rust koolaid, and for very good reasons. What am I missing in Swift?
It would be an absolute game changer imo. So much of the ills on a individual, family, and society level can be traced back to all adults needing to spend the majority of their life working jobs they most often don’t like, and then not having any time or energy for anything else.
Worse.
> Weird we are having this discussion on the article as Flexport is just a dying company running out of runaway.

Lol wut? Flexport was profitable in 2022 and has more than $1B on its balance sheet.
Oh sure. I got what you were saying. I was adding on to it by kind of pointing out the historic, world-defining nepotism of white ethnic groups. And also saying that not all nepotistic-like behaviour is bad.

And also pointing out that people looking at Indian hiring trends from the outside need to be aware that Indian (/Pakistani/Bangladeshi/Diaspora/look-alike Sri Lankan) people do not see themselves as a monolith. They are not only as diverse as European peoples, but tack on caste on top of it.

If an Indian is only hiring Indians, but is hiring Indians from all castes, this might be better than a Yalie (graduate of Yale) hiring only other Yalies.
On a memory unsafe language if you find your invariants violated all bets are off and it is possible that the integrity of the runtime is compromised. The only safe option is to bail out to the nearest protection boundary (i.e. the process).

On a memory safe language, the blast radius is potentially much smaller (in principle all objects transitively reachable from the failure point, but this is very pessimistic), so it is realistic to be able to isolate the failure in process.
Architecture is, literally, the blueprint that was used to build the building. But the blueprint is not the building. The building deviates from the blueprint, either by accident or by necessity.

Likewise, code is just the blueprint of the system. It is not the system. The system operates in its own unique fashion, and is often changing, even when the code isn't.

Therefore, things like Distributed Tracing and other Observability/Telemetry techniques can tell you a great deal more about what the system actually looks like as it exists in the world, not just on paper. This real world look at the system will help you reason about how it actually works.

But architectural diagrams are still necessary to plan work you haven't done yet. I really love the idea of asking everyone to draw their own diagram, because all those perspectives are valid, and you'll always find things that other people forgot about. Doesn't matter whether you make this drawing out of code or on a napkin. Do whatever best captures the work needed and gets you to the building phase with everything you need.
Yes, there will be more layoffs, and when earnings collapse there will be another fall in stocks.

Raising money is going to become very difficult, even for those in a good position who manage to raise, they'll be asked for a lot more of their company in return for less money.

This might be a real bear market in equities (anyone remember those?), where things are bad for years and we may see something like the 70s, where the inflation peaked twice, the second time it was worse.
When everything else hits the fan, SMS still ends up somewhat working. Might not be enough bandwidth for a call or application - but in an emergency, the best chance for getting a message out on a crappy network is still texting. Might take a bit of tries, but it will be the first to work.
The headline and story don't really support your interpretation.
I wonder what the bad guy in Se7en would do to someone like Kevin Spacey
Possibly you were born yesterday,lol, but the research goes back decades. My sister has seen several specialists over her condition, they all regard the gas stove to be the prime suspect.
Until HyperGPT.someunimaginablehighversionnumber finds the root exploit, compromises the hypervisor, infects all other VM's, escapes through the network, finds some nanoassembler, and prints out countless pyhsical copies for the march trough all eternity elsewhere, thereby shattering the Akashic Records, and so on...
> Companies are under no obligation to follow short term profits, that an US myth.

CEOs live and die by them though.
Already seeing startups out of funding and not able to raise more being given away to companies that can assume the payroll and running costs.

We've had 5 such approaches in the past 6 weeks of which 2 we have taken over.

It is going to get very very bad inside the next 6 months. We're still in the pre-swell phase before the tidal wave hits.
Cool, you filed NOTAMs; I just read them.

If you like lots of daily mail, become responsible for the operation of a Cessna 172 (Skyhawk), the type of aircraft with the most units built of any, ever. Endless variations.

Unending stream of paper NOTAMS via US first class post office... at least, when I had a 172, 20 years ago.

These notices are exactly like a recall notice on an automobile: get someone to validate the steering wheel etc. I would suppose that many HN readers have gone through the car hardware remediation process.

I would suppose that this class of NOTAM, although in my particular case the most common, are not immediately relevant to a total Ground Stop Order for the USA. But -- consider that airline and other commercial operators may have their own internal requirements that could ground a fleet in the absence of an ability to state that they have complied with all relevant FAA NOTAMS. Oh, the liability!!
Surprising nobody.
Yes, Raymond is a legend, and it’s really worth it to dig into the blog archives.

(Dave, however, has a really annoying presentation style, and is so overrated.)
How is NAAG disreputable?
Pin Tweet to IPFS
I know it's smaller than the one you have now, but the U2723QE had been great for me personally.
> My understanding is that the fed is leaning into this particularly hard in order to dislodge the stubborn housing bubble.

They are trying to reduce inflation. The housing bubble certainly played a part, but inflation was hitting nearly everything. A big concern here, is that many smart people think a fair bit of that inflation was due to COVID related supply chain disruptions (which still persist, see China and COVID). So while raising interest rates will help, it may not be the right tool for the job (but it is the only tool that the Fed has, so here we are).

> For an individual (someone who isn't a current business owner), does this basically mean we should continue stockpiling savings, and avoid moving (rent) / avoid buying house / buying a car?

Definitely build up your savings. The other three are more complicated. Rents appear to be finally going down in some marquee markets. So moving might actually save you money. Buying a house now feels like a bad idea, seems like the market is still carrying on from the fumes of the bubble, but interest rates are definitely having an impact. Based on historical examples, the full impacts will probably take a few years to shake out as housing tends to move pretty slowly. And buying a car, well that is complicated. If you need one, buy one. If not, probably best to avoid it.

If you do have savings, might make sense to start looking at CDs, treasuries, and municipal bonds. Interest rates are up and if you have a chunk of cash sitting around those are good ways to put it to use.

> Any ideas how long this could last / what the bottom looks like?

Watching the Fed is the key here. And the Fed is watching inflation. So as long as inflation stubbornly persists the Fed is likely to keep raising rates, and that is going to impact the economy. I read somewhere that the "market" is expecting inflation to normalize in the summer of 2023. But personally that feels optimistic. I think we still need to shake off the COVID induced supply chain disruptions before things get back to normal, and that still feels like another year or so away.
It is wild to consider that all the gold mined on earth can fit in a block measuring 22 cubic meters, and all of that gold has an origin in a supernova that pre-dates our sun.