skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Because unemployment is low that means that the Fed can't drop rates at all or else inflation will come back. And it is likely that if the Fed pauses rate hikes and the economy doesn't fall into recession that there will be another boom and high inflation again, which will kick off more rate hikes. This is the difference between short-term reactions of inflation to rates and long-term reactions.

What the Fed needs to meet its goals is unemployment running at 6-8% so that there's slack in the labor market. Until that happens, inflation will persistently come back. That implies that the Fed must create a recession to increase unemployment before it meets its goals.

And I suspect that it will be sufficient for the Fed to maintain rates at roughly where they are for 6-12 months in order to achieve a recession. We've spent way too long on cheap rates and there's too many zombie investments that require borrowing at stupidly low rates. When those loans adjust to higher rates and the borrowing costs of those entities double or triple (just like an ARM) those entities should all go under. You don't have to look past the vacancies in the malls and downtown cores of cities.

my view of "everyone is probably wrong" is how much everyone is predicting a soft-landing or mild recession in the US (including the title article, which is a good gauge of the centrist position). Rates are already at a level where they should cause detonations in the US economy -- it will just take 6-12 months at these current levels (and historically recessions that followed rate hikes have happened after 6-12 months -- there are time delays in the system).
That the people who use government services should, on average, pay money towards supporting those government services?
Gotta agree.

I kinda dread running (but will do it, and like having done it after the fact but during the runs is another story).

But in terms of being able to run anytime (with the right layering), anywhere (more or less, so long as you can avoid traffic), and with basically minimum barrier to entry in terms of gear, it's hard to beat when comparing it to other sports & fitness activities.

I still much rather would ride my bicycles hard, but I can't deny the barrier to entry is significantly higher, even if you're aiming for budget bikes (the learning curve is kinda steep in being able to spot a decent deal), let alone higher-end stuff. But oh, is it a sublime and beautiful experience on the bike.
> how language books are more recommended than works that intend to be foundational (like TAOCP or SWEBOK, disclaimer, I've read neither of them).

I have read some of the "foundational" works, at least well enough to know roughly what's in them. But I've only had the privilege of applying TAOCP a couple of times in my career. Similarly for other techniques from calculus to dynamic programming algorithms.

99% of the time, I try to focus on the simple solution, one that fits the business needs closely. A few times a year, I encounter a situation where a small amount of cleverness (or deeper theory) has a big payoff for the business. Then I indulge myself carefully. And in those cases where cleverness is actually a win, simplicity becomes even more important.

If I had to make an analogy, programming is a bit like being a fine woodworker with a limited budget. You want to solve the problem, with quality work, at a reasonable price. Finding the right balance can be extremely satisfying, and it can help an organization achieve ambitious goals.
Intel vTune and AMD uProf, as well as opensource tools like hwpmc for FreeBSD and perf for Linux.
SBF only had paper wealth. His political donations totaled tens of millions (iirc). On this scale that's a rounding error.

To paraphrase Chris Rock, SBF was rich, but Charlie Munger is wealthy.
Could you explain what do you mean, please?
> most effective sports at burning energy

I'm pretty sure it is one of the least effective sports at burning energy. Humans have evolved to be highly efficient runners, therefore we exert less energy when we run (plus compared alternative we're under-using our upper bodies). Swimming is almost certainly the most effective sport for burning energy.

That being said: Losing body fat from exercise is a bad strategy anyway. Exercise is important for improved health, improved aging, combat certain diseases (like metabolic syndrome), etc. But the maths alone shows that you cannot out-run a bad diet, one McDonald's meal is more than an hour of moderate exercise regardless of type.

Body fat is lost in the kitchen, fitness is gained at the gym, people mix those two things up regularly.
> Not defined means, it could be anything.

No, not defined means it's not within the purview of the spec. Spec doesn't care. You can send one. Maybe it'll work, maybe it won't, maybe it'll crash, maybe it'll be rejected, maybe some proxy along the way will strip it and the server won't even get it, maybe it'll get your client banned forever.

All of these are fine, because spec doesn't care.

> If accepting body in GET is out of spec, then spec is supposed to say, GET cannot send body.

No, then it would be against spec, like HEAD with a response body.
Can you run having GERD? I have a hiatal hernia and it sucks.
Given how many kids are and have been on ChromeOS since 2020, I wouldn't be surprised to see this changing fairly rapidly, moreso than I'd have otherwise expected. More and more it seems the choice for people is between a Macbook or a Chromebook -- the windows PC is just an expensive gaming device in the realm of personal machines.

Windows still rules the office, for now, but it's not gaining ground, and offices tend to move slowly, but steadily.
Hmm, if you had net profit of X, and suddenly have a new expense of N * X, where N is greater than 2, I think that's worth taking note of, be it low payments, a lawsuit settlement, or otherwise.
> I shower every day anyway, so I don't count shower time as cost of running.

So do I, and there's no way I could go out for a run before it - so the post-run one would be additional, that's why I count it as a cost.
The biggest obstacle is not grokking that programming is a formal system, just like math - that it is possible to understand programs in your mind in a well-defined way. Much intro-to-coding education tends to leave this unstated, and starting with supposedly "intuitive" but actually very complex, higher-level languages makes it even harder to point out.

Imagine a world where all programming was done via heuristically-derived ChatGPT prompts spelling out what the system has to do in lawyer-like detail. That's what lots of non-coders have in mind when they think of what "coding" must be like. Of course that would be totally unworkable; coding only works because it's formal and 100% reliable.
Why do you consider it immature to have tooling preferences, in cases where your tooling choices don't affect others?

I see no reason to assume all brains will work equally well with every workflow. The important thing is what gets checked into the repository, not the sequence of keys you pressed to get there.

(I am currently that person, with vscode and emacs. I have better things to do than retrain myself out of a set of keybindings I've become very efficient with.)
That’s because your eyes aren’t socialist enough. Squint them and feel the hate. ;)
5km is considered a short distance run. Within a few weeks, it's something that should be achievable in sub-20/25 minutes.

In the UK, there's a volunteer led organisation called parkrun which hosts 5km runs/races in over 1000 parks around the country every Saturday. It's quite popular. My local race consistently get 300+ entrants each week. Worth checking out: https://www.parkrun.org.uk/

5km, 10km, half marathon and marathon are the main running distances. Less than 5km is generally stuff run on athletics tracks, which falls under athletics.
I think it's cool but you should have an option of just recommending movies that are similar to a specific one.
Doing hill strides will build some serious legs and running every day (while maintaining an appropriate diet) will be more than enough to reduce your body fat.
My wife swears by https://darebee.com/ they have workouts/programs for all levels, all body weight based
What kind of keyboard do you have that polls at such a rate that it can keep up with "almost infinite" (whatever that means) WPM? The best keyboards I have found only have 1000Hz scan rate, which in the absolute best case means only 30,000 WPM. Granted, compared to infinity, every number is equidistant, but when you say "almost infinite" I expect something a bit more impressive (in the 10**80 range, for example).
There is a high correlation between wealth and life expectancy. Stress is the real killer.
Good series about the approach from a functional perspective https://fsharpforfunandprofit.com/posts/dependencies/
As long as the consumers of these ADHD medications are informed of the benefits and risks, I don’t see why the DEA is so concerned. These medications can give you a cognitive boost that helps make more productive as a software developer in a difficult industry. If an informed individual determines the benefits are better than the risks, that’s their personal choice.
Today, the wealthy play a different game than what Charlie's dad did. If you belong to the right group (wealth, political connections, power, etc), if you can give $5M donation, you can get into Harvard.
If you haven’t run at all your entire life then your joints don’t have the required strength. Obviously that’s not the case for you so you wouldn’t know.
> We're already destroying our only planet with 7 billion people living only 72 years on average.

Because we only live a short while, we don't take a long view and there's a soft cap on society's accumulated wisdom. (In a smaller scale it's like companies losing "institutional knowledge" when employees leave.) People would act differently if they knew they'd be around for 700y instead of 70.

> That's what we thought would happen [with the Internet], but look at what we actually did

You're not seriously suggesting humanity is better without the Internet…
Yeah, I’ve thought an economic calamity was likely for over 20 years. As I stated, the math is there but the timing is always unknown. We’re talking about the actions of billions of human beings, and therefore it’s difficult to predict with certainty. What can be said definitively is that the debt service of the US federal government will exceed the current defense budget by 2025. Things are getting closer and closer.
When can I expect, let’s say Rack & Rails to implement HTTP/3?
> I am dead certain their have been numerous and highly successful workplaces which were the anti-thesis to these complaints.

Exactly. It's also a matter of choosing the right work environment. I moved from a startup with quite a few junior employees, to a more experienced team in a FAANG. One thing I noticed is that bike shedding was much more limited, and people much more pragmatic. It was quite refreshing. Maybe I'm lucky with my team dynamic, but overall I think that experienced SWEs are less likely to lose time with stupid debates and are more eager to get things done.
The thing is though that people/ project management and development are very different skills. I've had an interesting experience recently where a team keeps asking me for things that are relatively dumb and I say no but I said yes this last time because I don't want to be the place where everything they ask for goes to die. Saying yes on this thing, while not a small ask, helps them stay motivated and feel appreciated even though there is truly no value to it. Learning these things has changed my opinion on leadership. There are of course still bad leaders but the people that get things done and those that manage large groups are often not the same person as they are very different problem sets.
I meant also that he has insiding information that is not revealed precisely but generally in the blog post.
Any thoughts on Bruce Schneier's Password Safe?

https://www.schneier.com/academic/passsafe/
Bloggers were always a minority, because most people have little or nothing interesting to say. If you asked them to write a long essay on a subject, they just couldn't. This is why social media was a godsend to a lot of non-bloggers, because it made them feel that their 140/280 character sound bites were worth publishing on the web. These people can never "go back" to blogging, because they never did and never would write blogs.

Setting that problem aside, another problem is that people have become accustomed/addicted to receiving links via social media rather than via RSS. This is a big problem for current/former bloggers who wish to leave social media. It's difficult to take their followers with them. You'll lose a big chunk of your audience if you rely entirely on RSS to publish. After leaving Twitter, my RSS readership doesn't seem to have grown. AFAICT it's the same as before.
It's just so much easier to improve your range than your speed.
A lot of this seems like conventional wisdom: the economy will experience a mild recession in 2023, which will be best weathered by the biggest companies, biggest coins, and any startups who have found a strong business model.

His 2022 post is worth reading (linked from this post). He tried to be more specific, and it did not IMO pan out very well.

It’s just really hard to predict the future. It’s probably better to think in terms “how fast can I detect and respond to changes” as opposed to “how good are my long-term predictions”.
I woke up one day just after turning 40 and shortly after separating from my wife feeling quite miserable. I had wallowed in the depths of depression and indulged in self medicating with lots of alcohol. The alcohol consumption led to hangovers, not only of the transient headache variety, but also of the “I can’t fit in my pants” variety. Anyway, I woke up, went to the mirror, looked at myself ans decided that wasn’t the way I wanted to continue on. So, I decided to start a couch to 5K… It really sucked the first couple of times I went out to run, but I was determined to continue. Each week I got a bit better, and each week I lost a bit of weight. I also noticed that my mood was dramatically better after a run.
Finally, it was time for my 5K - and it didn’t suck! I actually did a decent job for my age group.
Fast forward a few years where I have continued down this path of doing 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathons and I find myself down 11 kilos in weight and up 60 kilos in a new partner - in part due to being in a better state of mind due to regular exercise.
Audience capture strikes again.
The way it was worded I assumed that before now people could only put it out back of the house, like a pit toilet.
> To lower house prices would require heavy deregulation of the housing market

There's no actual requirement for deregulation.

Austrians made prices affordable and improved housing quality with public intervention, and it worked well[0]. I yet have to see an housing deregulation experiment that worked.

.0: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41VJudBdYXY
Pretty cool, ClickHouse is really impressive piece of tech! I plan to use it more in my next projects.
Yeah after a lengthy and expensive lawsuit.
Buffett applied to Harvard and was rejected.

He did ok.

https://inshorts.com/m/en/amp_news/warren-buffett-was-reject...
Try using a new RTX GPU or a Wifi 6E network to it's fullest, or two screens with different scaling with Linux. You will not have a nice experience.
Only if the debits are large enough.

Interest-paying debit can be quite healthy. It does not have to be a ponzi scheme.
I haven't seen anyone write about this, but my prediction:

Generative AI is a superpower for spammers and content farmers. It's hard enough to look up recipes, product reviews, or anything about health today, and they're going to make it worse.

The consequence for this is an opportunity to build for trust over convenience. More value for things like Wirecutter/Consumer Reports, less for Amazon reviews and Yelp. Curation and Wikipedia-like governance models over algorithms.

What's particularly interesting about this is its more about social innovation than technical innovation. You don't need to win the cat and mouse game with AIs trying to fool you, you need a voluntary association of food blogs that verify they're real people who test their recipes.

Nothing is certain, but I think there's something interesting here.
Agree with you a lot. Especially about that style of management being attacked.

It’s easier to manage when all you do is assign work, reward with money and blame silent quiting, millennials, or whatever the latest cause of people “just not working enough”.

As opposed to actually caring about your staff, making sure the work is fulfilling and that the team are bought into what they are doing at an individual level.

Leading shouldn’t be about what makes it easier for the manager.
Twenty years ago I said yes, and compared it to the amputation era of medicine. Today I think we aren’t just immature but stunted. We are in the grips of the Trough of Disillusionment with Agile, and I blame Scrum as the primary instigator. What was supposed to free us ended up as shackles. We went from a few people talking about test suites and code reviews in 2000 to many of us doing them or at least paying lip service, but testing is still a broken discipline and code reviews miss important bugs too often, which may or may not be the same problem stated twice. And worst of all the world is more full of frameworks than ever before.

The bright spots in the 20’s I’d say are things like elixir and rust, which are bringing some more esoteric development techniques into the light. I don’t know enough about property based testing to say if that’s a way out, but it does point to the possibility that testing is actually NP-complete, which would help explain why decomposition is so damned effective. It reduces the branching factor to something we can manage by hand.
> A field which has so many tools to objectively quantify their work and the result so often are debates displaying poorly concealed biases and egos.

This felt wrong when I read it.

I agree we have many, many tools to objectively quantify aspects of our work.

Where I disagree: these tools only measure _some_ aspects. There are many aspects where we don't have good tools for measurement. Some of those aspects are for all practical purposes immeasurable.

For example: measure maintainability.

I think what happens then is the same thing that happens in politics. We take proxy metrics that _are_ measurable, and try to extrapolate over everything. The debates and egos come from arguing which proxy metrics should be weighted which way.

Then I realized I'd propose an alternative hypothesis: programming as a craft is immature.

I could never imagine civil engineers arguing over proxy metrics to the effects of natural forces on a bridge.

Can programming _become_ mature? I don't know. I'm skeptical of any claims that it can be. They all seem rooted in a gut sense of a particular weighting of what we can measure.
The USA still has no peers, only "near-peers".
You are ignoring the reality many are facing, where essentially all the available options are above their means.

Back in the late 80s Elizabeth Warren and coauthors showed that the most common reason American families went bankrupt was because their high housing costs were an attempt to get their kids into better schools.

The blunt truth is the 20 major metro areas are where nearly all the high income jobs are, so we've seen a decades long pattern of migration towards them. This is a huge underlying force in so much of US economics, politics, and culture. At the same time, these metro areas have not come close to matching demand with increased housing supply.

The result is increasingly people facing the dilemma where the best economic option for their family is for them to spend 3+ hours of their day commuting to an urban core from an outlying area they can just barely afford to rent in. And god help you if your kid gets sick or your car gets totaled. This is the reality for most working class Americans. It's not a matter of them living above what they can afford, it's about our society becoming so broken many people will never reach a threshold of affording anything like middle class prosperity.

And I am entirely out of patience for folks that earn tech industry money while moralizing about how poverty is just people overspending in some purely hedonistic stupid way.
Typical targets for “full employment” are around 4%. 6-8% is not only unnecessary but contrary to the Fed’s other raison d’etre (besides combatting inflation) of full employment, which includes combatting higher unemployment than is necessary.

Increasing interest rates has systemic effects that take a while to propagate. We have already seen this reflected in CPI (which is also partially due to stabilizing after the supply shock of the war in Ukraine), and unemployment may get a bit worse than it is now, but the Fed absolutely will not want to increase unemployment into the ranges you mention unless absolutely necessary to combat inflation, because it’s contrary to their goals.
Recursion is an obfuscated way to run a loop with a stack. At first it seems like magic, and makes things so much easier. When trying to replicate it the first time actually using a loop and stack it’s really hard to get right. But by the time you’ve done it two or three times, it’s as easy as breathing.

Similar, OOP is an obfuscated way to run a function with a context. The first time you separate the data in the context from an object, it’ll be hard to get it right and make it easier than to just use Objects and Methods. But once you’ve done it two or three times, it’s as easy as breathing.

You can optimize loading the context to be better than copying a bunch of unaligned data in lots of ways, but polymorphism is a common way to get there.
The problem with generalizations like this is I think it can cause you to miss real issues in your business. For example, I'm always incredibly nice to customer service folks. It's always served me pretty well, but one time I got so fed up with Comcast that I rage quit and switched to Direct TV. It's the only time in my life I've ever done anything like that. At the point where I got mad and started to quit they finally started offering to actually fix my problem. But by that point I was too fed up for them to save my business. If you just go into an interaction like that assuming I'm one of the 5% of consistently awful people you would miss that there is actually a huge problem with one of your business processes that you need to fix, because it's so bad it's driven an otherwise reasonable person mad.
Aggie Archaeologists Conserving Ship from Colonial-Era Virginia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sodium-cooled_fast_reactor

Not without its cons, but it's a pretty active research area.
Sprints are a fairly popular competitive event. It's part of track and field.
100/200/400 meters are all common sprint disciplines. 800 is sort of a sprint discipline. These competition distances are too short to provide much training benefit and you can't train at race effort 100% of the time. Competitive sprinters do a lot of volume (i.e., miles) at slower paces in addition to a lot of weight training.
Just to be a bit more pedantic, I don't think we eat the same croque monsieurs. What you described as a tosti is known to me as a croque monsieur (but with ham), and what you described as a croque monsieur is known to me as a wonderful idea I have never heard of before.