skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
We have very clearly just found the lower limit on unemployment which will then produce inflation. We're never going to hit a limit of 0%, there will always be people who are getting fired, and some people who are pretty unemployable. The limit will also change based on conditions and the lower limit from decades ago or decades in the future may be different from today. There's no known good algorithm to tell you what that magic number is.

I'd also argue that "inflation death cycle" packs a lot of negative political assumptions into it. And the "death spiral" economists were typically worried about decades ago was the deflationary death spiral of savings gluts causing deflation causing more savings.

And my assertion is that "the Fed conquering inflation" cannot be read off of the CPI numbers for the past 6 months. We're still at what the Fed would call "full employment" and inflation is lurking and all we've seen is a short term abatement in inflation. If the economy revvs up again, then in the short term the curve will be the same and inflation will reappear.

For the Fed to consider the job done the curve needs to move so that the economy can rev up again without inflation reappearing. That will only happen if there's more slack in unemployment numbers. If we are at 6-8% unemployment then it will take time for the unemployment rate to fall back down to 3.5% and for inflation to reappear. By creating more unemployment you shift the curve so that the economy can run hot for awhile and grow while keeping wage inflation down. So shifting that curve is what the Fed's actual goal is, they're looking beyond what last months inflation numbers were (and they look not only beyond the y-o-y headline inflation numbers but they look beyond the m-o-m inflation numbers). They want to shift the curve, and the way to shift the curve is to have more slack in the jobs markets, which is economist-speak for a higher unemployment rate.

They also will very likely overshoot whatever target they think they have, they don't have a magic wand to control the economy. They mostly just detonate a few bombs in the economy and they don't know how much dry powder is waiting to go off in secondary explosions. Or the way this is usually phrased, "when the tide goes out we find out who was swimming naked".

And there's a tension here in HN between the oft stated belief that a decade of low rates has led to all kinds of malinvestment, and the belief that we're due for a soft-landing kind of recession. One of those I think has to be incorrect. And looking at the vacancy rates in downtown cores, etc I'm pretty sure the soft-landing story is going to be the wrong one. There are a lot of entities surviving on persistently low short rates, and they're going to go under once their loans adjust. The strict capitalists will celebrate this as bad investments going under and getting flushed, but that comes with pain, just like it was painful in 2008.
A buddy of mine works at Simplot and does exactly that. He works on a team that designs experiments and run them on crops.

Now smaller farms probably don’t, but then again smaller startups often don’t have A/B infrastructure setup either.

Edit: Come to think of it, despite this being an article on what SV doesn’t get about AG they talk of A/B testing as some special SV only thing. In every other field they’d just call it “scientific experiments”.
Clearly he meant https://www.ic3.gov/ but tagged a wrong account.
Even though you've worked for such amount of years, really impressive, that doesn't make you familiar with all companies out there and their cultures.
I never hated reading, it's just that I didn't get the point of it. What are we even doing here and why?

What's the point? Math has clear purpose. I do enjoy some books. I just didn't get the point of studying them beyond reading. Why are they babbling about ? Is there any use for this information or is it just a torture in memorization? Why would I ever care about all these abstract literature terms?

Ironically they missed telling the meta story: why would anyone care about stories.

If stories are just something you read for fun, why would anyone care to teach me how to analyze them?

EDIT: To be clear, these were the questions that weren't answered back then.

Only now, years later with life experience the purpose is clear.
This seems like a fantastic idea. Voice assistant which could replace mundane navigation through web interface seems would be desirable for a greater good. Good luck with execution!
Macroeconomics of adapting to high-end sea-level rise via protection, mitigation
Extremely interesting projects here. Not just for typescript but also for

Monorepo tooling, Build optimizations, complex webpack setups, performance tuning. For example from the above list I went through cal.com repo and I saw that the way they have organized dev and prod builds and openAPI spec browsing tooling is very good. This is exemplary for anyone wanting to look at good ways to setup a project!
You’re welcome to link to them and allow us to judge for ourselves! :)
Isn't that the assumption? Musk will just hire bootcamp grads and whoever sends him a funny meme, and that's it.

It seems there's a sufficiently sized core team left even after all the resignations and firings. He keeps those for a while. They vet and train the new guys and gals.

As long as the site is operational it'll be fine because of the network effects. (Mastodon is great but not really a threat. At least not yet. And maybe never.)
Incredibly difficult to defend against nation state attackers and such. North Korea is very persistent in crypto hacks, for example:

https://www.npr.org/2022/12/22/1144996480/crypto-hacking-nor...
> Don’t Interrupt

The Church of Interruption[1] is a great essay on this topic, arguing that it's a matter of compatibility. It's been discussed on HN a lot[2][3].

[1]: https://sambleckley.com/writing/church-of-interruption.html

[2]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21044009

[3]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32545023
This thread has been such an interesting read, I know so little about economics that I'm not sure how to parse a lot of the comments.

I don't mean to introduce politics into the discussion more than as a thought experiment: if we had a different president (Trump, for example) would your opinion on whether we are in a recession be different?

It's sort of an interesting method of self reflection.
Anyone noticed there are no repeat messages on his Mastodon, that historically reflected his Twitter, or vice versa?
Context now that the editorialised title has changed, this is a core Bitcoin developer.

These things happen every day, but happening to a core developer (if confirmed!) who has a deep understanding of the systems and security indicates just how fragile crypto can be (in my opinion)
I don’t understand how alcohol is legal. So many lives ruined by it.

On a more serious note, I’ve engaged in many vices myself, but never had any interest in gambling. First time I went into a casino I got an incredibly depressing vibe.
Why make it so complex? Just do a title search online and you’ll get access to their address if they own a home.
The sample size there is also really small, the average age of the top 10 oldest people ever is 118

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldest_people
For me the big one was relational modeling & normalization. I took a database class in college and I thought normalization was idiotic. It seemed obviously foolish and wasteful and I couldn't imagine why anyone would do this to themselves by choice. Then ~2 years later I got a job working with data, at a company with quite a big database that was designed largely by experts. Within a few months of starting to work with real data I had internalized the Why of normalization and become a believer. Ironically I've been doing database work ever since.

Lately I've worked for a number of companies where no one -- like seriously, absolutely zero developers on the team -- understand normalization. They may perform a shadow of it, because someone somewhere told them to, or some article said this is how you model data that looks like X, but they don't get it. Predictably, their data models are absolute garbage. Teaching them is an uphill battle because they don't care, they're not curious, and their web frameworks (cough Rails cough) have taught them to distance themselves from the database and treat it as dumb.

The other one was Rich Hickey's "Simple Made Easy", which I first watched in 2013. I enjoyed it even then but I didn't really understand what he was getting it. After working with, and building, some systems done in a functional style, I feel like I figured most of the ideas. That would have been some time in 2017 so, definitely took a while to soak in.
My wife's laptop is a Chromebook. My kids also had a Chromebook but 2 died in quick succession and I got fed up with the fact that the ones available for sale in my country are only the really shit models and buying one from overseas means no support or returns. So I've bought them a MacBook instead - not my first choice but Apple sell locally and have reasonable (existent) support.
This is a remarkably interesting image. How do these guys even get these shots? I'd love to do this on all kinds of things at home..
First he said "at least many of my bitcoins stolen" and then followed up with "Nevermind many. It's basically all gone"

Which implies that it is indeed most of his bitcoins.
> Elasticsearch, well defined product with traditional enterprise feature split and users who are very accustomed to paying for this kind of a product ?

If my memory serves, Elasticsearch suffered a lot from Amazon offering their product for free without contributing in any manner. That's not very far from what is happening to Matrix.
It looks like it is just twitter hack. The wording in those tweets doesn't fit Luke's writing style.

This is his mastodon, let's see if he posts anything there:

https://bitcoinhackers.org/@lukedashjr
> the first couple volumes of the Win32 programmer's manuals

What books exactly are you referring to here?
I've always wondered why someone hasn't created what I call the 'orange slice' expression button. Much like cutting an orange in half it gives a preset amount of positive and negative values. Sort of a play off the meta moderation that Slashdot did.

For positive values it you could have something like

[I believe this is truthful], [I like this content],[Funny],[Positive message]

and for negative values

[I believe this is false/untruthful],[I dislike this content],[Sad/hateful],[Something else negative I can't think of at the moment?]
Submitted title was "Top Bitcoin dev gets owned". It's great to post that kind of explanation in the comments, but please don't use the title for it. That's against the site guidelines: "Please use the original title, unless it is misleading or linkbait; don't editorialize." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
Unfortunately not ready for prime time yet, optical beamforming today is only a few degrees steerable angle and single beam. Also low power and poorly focused.
Infrequent rain means when it does rain lots of oil floats to the surface and creates poor road conditions. That, and drivers are less accustomed to driving in rain. By comparison, here in Seattle light to moderate rain and people still drive at full speed. A heavy downpour will slow things down a bit.
Password books are basically physical password managers. The only problem I have with them is that the passwords in most password books I've seen aren't very creative or random. As long as you write down randomly generated passwords instead of permutations of the names of your kids/pets/parents, I don't know what people are panicking about.

The perfect password book is combined with a word you remember but don't write down as a pepper, but I doubt it's much of a problem in practice; it takes one leak of an u hashed password to break the code.

I think for many the risk of someone breaking in and stealing your password book is much smaller than the risk of a centralised password manager getting hacked (LastPass and friends).
"the pedos who took over Vatican City are NOT Catholic"

Sympathy cratering...
No it isnt. It’s what you want and little else
He then said it was basically all:

https://twitter.com/lukedashjr/status/1609647203890372609
Sure, I’ll dispute that, too. Crypto is a hated industry. FTX blew up loudly, fascinatingly, and then SBF basically admitted guilt in multiple public forums. None of this went unexpectedly quickly. Many of the people proposing the current conspiracy were, weeks ago, claiming he would skate away free.

To the degree powerful people were embarrassed by him, it was in the Bahamas. Not here. Not at all.
Of course its obvious there's many ways to get someone's address.

The point is that companies put vast effort into digital security but in many cases it's easily compromised by going to the home of the person that is the hacking target.
Going to go out on a limb and say this is a Twitter account compromise.
> All I was saying is that there's no reason to introduce more complexity into the transport layer

But there is, and I explained what that reason was. The real world is under no obligation to faithfully copy your OSI Model, on the contrary, the fact the OSI Model doesn't resemble the real world is a good reason to abandon it.
#3 really hits home when you realize we have rules for killing each other (war). And we have separate legal trials to determine if someone broke those rules while trying to kill someone else. The penalty for breaking the rules about killing someone often is to be killed.
Tesla Window Spontaneously Cracking
For me, it was the difference between “is” and “ought”.

It sounds obvious when you first think about it, but I spent a vast majority of my 20’s with a view of the world filled with “oughts” instead of “is’s”, especially when it comes to things I can’t control. I.e., people “ought” to behave a certain way, versus the way people actually behave. The way companies/governments “ought” to operate, versus the way they actually do.

Thinking in terms of “oughts” can really cloud your judgement in ways that you might not be totally aware of. I guess this is kind of like the “realpolitik” philosophy, but coming to this realization in my early 30’s actually made me a lot happier and less confused about why the world is the way it is.
Maybe an alignment marker for layer stacking.
Do we try to treat/prevent diabetes?

The CDC doesn’t tell people about any link or to lose weight if they are obese.

I know multiple people being treated for type 2 diabetes. Few of their doctors have talked with them about weight or obesity being linked.

The general solution in the US is to be regular on diet so your insulin done can be regular.

I do know one person who was recommended to change their diet and weight. In a matter of months he was no longer a diabetic. I told other diabetics about it and they didn’t believe me.

We, as a society, try to keep people on regular insulin and monitoring instead of trying to cure or minimize type 2 diabetes.
What were you trying that allowed you to get the hang of it? Also were there any online resources that helped?
“I literally couldn't talk to any one. There was nobody. I just walked off by myself... I could never talk to anyone about it and never understood anyone's reaction." - Noam Chomsky the day of the Hiroshima bombing
You don't have to have an expensive or lengthy suit to evict a commercial tenant... you just can't do it unilaterally. You can go straight to the court and request an eviction, you do not need to sue Twitter to evict them.

How many "eviction lawsuits" have you been involved in?
Contribute to open source projects. Many folks in the D community leveraged their contributions to D into lucrative jobs.
They didn’t say math is never tied. They said programming is always tied. Maybe that in itself is debatable but you’ve changed the argument.
Vertical farming can grow micro-greens pretty well but it will never produce 90% of our calories, even with optimistic assumptions. It would also be an environmental disaster.

Transportation is a teeny tiny fraction of the environmental cost of food as well.

I'm also not aware of any GMOs that are 10x better than their non-GMO counterpart although there are certainly improvements to be had here.
I think most people have no idea how thin agricultural margins are to start with. They see that some farmer bought a $500,000 combine and think they got money just to throw around, but that combine is expected to last the next 40+ years and work near flawlessly for every harvest while performing multiple different functions simultaneously in a dirty and uneven environment. There is no alternative to a combine harvester since it is replacing the work of reaping, threshing, and winnowing all at once which without a combine would take thousands of man hours to do by hand every harvest. They might not expect for it to pay itself off for 30+ years.

Nearly all farms operate on single digit percentage returns, a large number of them have been floating along on 1% or less for decades hoping to hit a bumper crop once or twice more in their life time. If they throw a million dollars at fertilizer, fuel, seeds, maintenance for their tractors, barns, silos, dryers, and any other specialized equipment for their particular crop, then earning $50,000 on that million dollar investment would be considered a great success. Earning $10,000 would still be considered some success because it is not uncommon to run multiple negative years in a row.

Yield can vary 30% in a year from normal weather patterns, and the market can vary just as much or more, and they don't always align in a farmer's favor.

So if your tech can't handle 99.99% uptime, and be fixed in the field when it does break on short notice with basic hand tools, farmers don't want it. A single failure at the wrong time can dump half of your million dollar investment down the drain which you were only hoping to make a couple dollars from to start with. It could set them back a literal decade or more financially because some shitty widget or sensor failed and they either couldn't repair it or the fault wasn't detected until it was too late.
Is it HN's problem? Never even knew the guy existed until 5 minutes ago.
As His Life of Fantasy Comes into Focus, George Santos Goes to Washington
Same. Currently my Framework drains battery far too quickly when suspended. Also the fingerprint reader doesn't work, which I don't care about. It turns out for my typical patterns the battery thing is only a nuisance. I assume this experience was at the top of heap, since Framework actively courts Linux installations (I believe they sell Linux preinstalled?).

It's also a bit strange, if predictable, that so many HN commenters seem genuinely surprised that Linux doesn't cleanly find and install every device driver on every mainstream laptop. Given the insider nature of many people here, I wonder if this implies that distro maintainers aren't getting enough first installation feedback. Unironically I suggest starting a TikTok (or something) campaign that encourages people to post short videos of Linux laptop installation going off the rails and wanting to throw the machine against the wall. A bug report, but with more passion.
because it's a useless problem to solve. The affected person going "FBI help me please" is the definition of that 'Bike Fall' meme. The answer to these situations is, use a currency where you can call someone that can roll your transaction back.
Indiglo has good looks and function. What I dislike is that it requires a high-voltage driver. As tiny and low-current as that may be, it is electrically and even slightly acoustically noisy, and not something that belongs in a low-voltage wristwatch.
Programming doesn't have the tangible aspect of the examples you provided. If I make a bridge over the river with huge holes in it, you see them. With programming you don't see them until you run into them.
That's an interesting take that I don't agree with.

It could be extended to pretty much anything: "I'm insulting your clothes, not you".

Calling something that a person says, or writes "asinine" is inflammatory. If I were to call your defense of it "naive, brain dead and utterly absurd" are you sure you wouldn't interpret that as a personal attack?
There are no polling locations in Oregon, everything is by mail you goof.
Yup like I mentioned there are modules that allow snooping. This is why if people truly want privacy they need to use a client that supports OTR add-ons providing end-to-end encryption. Pidgin is one of them.

Another option would be for each small circle of friends to run their own uMurmur or ngircd servers, then at worst the admin would spy on their friends. ngircd can be spun up in a few minutes, even faster if one already has some LetsEncrypt keys for a domain. uMurmur can also be spun up super fast on a linux home router.
If the level is millions of dollars, that device could be physically stolen, or some aspect of the cryptography/auth scheme could be attacked through a 0-day.

Of course, it's also possible he just wanted something closer to the convenience of a bank account/credit card instead of a pile of cash and failed in the opsec.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discourse If you’re thinking closer to forum software of yore.

If you don’t mind being centralized Reddit is what really killed forums and is still very good despite a drive to make it worse every year. There are many Reddit clones as well.
I'm more curious about why there isn't a market to offer what farmers want. Why not make modern, serviceable equipment with open code and published APIs and schematics? This just screams "market failure" to me.
You believe that someone keeps their normal "writing style" when his livelihood gets stolen? :>
3-4x yield for which crops exactly? They are only used for growing leafy greens and low volume high cost fruits such as strawberries. Do they produce 4x corn and soy? 4x potatoes?
You're right, I've got it! We'll store our money in a savings account, with transfer safeguards, where someone can't irreversibly yeet my life savings into the abyss.
It also introduced (in its later ParcPlace form) the idea of JITing interpretive languages.
I think I've read about git multiple times before I started using it. And even then at first it was with a dash of scepticism. I can't put my finger on that moment, the moment of clarity but it had to be quite glorious. Before, I was "what else do you need we have svn". Sounds horrible now that I think about it.
Every crypto hack is followed by a swift call for a centralised authority to intervene.
Okay, so assuming you get past this theoretical billionaire's physical security (at a minimum gated fences and an alarm system; if they're actually a billionaire, probably 24/7 armed private security as well) and into their mansion, how long do you think it would take you to search their 7 bedroom 10000 square foot mansion for these written down passwords which you have no information as to whether they even exist?
Supreme negligence on his part. He knows his server was accessed, but he didn't transfer the coins to a new address.
Antarctic Sea ice extent hits a new record low
It could have been worse.
Well the DEA needs to justify their salaries somehow, even though they do more harm than good generally
Google to pay Indiana $20M to resolve privacy suit
Or, perhaps, carbon emitted. Either way vertical farms are a huge loser for anything outside of niche products.
I love my GWM5610, the only thing I dislike is how hard to press the buttons are and the bad display angles. But other than that it's a damn brick. And the radio sync is magic.
Peter Todd claims he has confirmation [1]

[1] - https://twitter.com/peterktodd/status/1609655629903265795
Instigating arguments? I was merely expressing empathy towards the sentiment expressed in the post I quoted: "I feel for the folks who live under these people." Then the same guy who's replying to all of my posts on this thread showed up, and then you.

Frankly I don't want to argue with you either. Don't reply to me again.